Crown Weather
Discussions

Low Pressure Located Near South Florida & The Northwestern Bahamas: I continue to keep an eye on a low pressure system that’s located in the area around South Florida & the northwestern Bahamas. Most of the convection that’s occurring with this low pressure system is just to the east of the eastern Bahamas.

A look at the environmental conditions around this low pressure system reveals that the wind shear values are far too strong to support any sort of development. Because of this, I do not expect any sort of development from this low pressure system as it slowly moves in the area from the northwestern Bahamas into South Florida over the next couple of days or so.

Interestingly, the latest ICON model, which did very well with Imelda, forecasts that a tropical storm will form over the southeastern Gulf very near southwest Florida late next week. While both the GFS and European deterministic models do not show this development, there are a couple of ensemble members that do show similar development over the southeastern Gulf late next week. The Google Deep Mind AI model also shows no development in the southeastern Gulf later next week. While I’ll certainly be keeping an eye on whatever low pressure systems that form near South Florida, I think that the development chances are very low.

The meandering low pressure system near South Florida this weekend will produce locally heavy rain across parts of Florida’s East Coast, especially as we get into Sunday, Monday and Tuesday. Areas along Florida’s East Coast from about Port Saint Lucie northward to Daytona looks to receive the heaviest rainfall amounts over the next few days with 2 to 5 inches of rain expected.

In addition, the weather setup over the Bahamas and Florida will likely lead to a persistent onshore wind flow to be in place for the next several days along Florida’s East Coast. Because of this, expect rip currents, rough surf and hazardous marine conditions all along Florida’s East Coast.

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Low Pressure Located Over The North-Central Gulf: Weather analysis reveals that a weak low pressure system has formed over the north-central Gulf. This weather system is producing shower and thunderstorm activity across areas just offshore of the coasts of Louisiana, Mississippi, and Alabama. 

The wind shear over the Gulf is far too strong to support any sort of development and because of this, tropical development is not expected.

This low pressure system will produce locally heavy rainfall across far southeastern parts of Louisiana, coastal Mississippi and coastal Alabama over the next couple of days. Rainfall totals of 2 to 4 inches are possible with even higher amounts offshore.

This low pressure system is anticipated to move onshore along the Texas coast by Monday.

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Tropical Development Continues To Be Possible Over The Central Tropical Atlantic During Next Week: A tropical wave is moving across the far eastern Tropical Atlantic today. This wave is producing a large area of disorganized shower and thunderstorm activity over the eastern Tropical Atlantic.

A look at the environmental conditions over the central and eastern tropical Atlantic reveals that the wind shear values are marginally favorable for development. This is due to strong wind shear found north of 15 North Latitude, but much lower wind shear values south of 15 North Latitude. This means that for this wave to develop, it’ll have to remain at a fairly low latitude. Also, there is dry air found between 35 and 45 West Longitude & this should inhibit any sort of quick development.

Based on my analysis, I think that we’ll probably see slow organization and development of this wave as it heads westward over the next several days. In fact, it’s not out of the realm of possibilities that this wave might wait until it’s west of 50 West Longitude to begin developing.

A look at the most recent model guidance reveals that the GFS model showing development occurring by the middle part of next week once this wave reaches 45 West Longitude. The GFS model then forecasts a very close pass to the northern Leeward Islands as a hurricane late next week.

The Canadian model shows even quicker development beginning near 40 West Longitude on Tuesday. The Canadian model then forecasts this system to miss the Leeward Islands to the east and northeast late next week.

The ICON model forecasts this system to be a monster hurricane and shows it to barely miss the Leeward Islands to the east and northeast late next week as a major hurricane.

Interestingly, the European model forecasts little or no development of this wave even when it gets close to the northern Leeward Islands late next week.

Even though there are a lot of models that do show development of this wave, I’m not quite sold on the idea due to the unfavorable or marginally favorable conditions I’ve already mentioned.

That said, my recommendation for those of you in the Lesser Antilles, Virgin Island and Puerto Rico is to still keep an eye on the progress of this wave. In particular, those of you in the northern Leeward Islands should keep especially close watch of this wave. While I do think tropical development of this wave looks slow to occur, it could still happen once it gets west of 50 West Longitude around Wednesday and Thursday. This means that this wave should reach the Leeward Islands around Friday, whether it develops or not.

The next tropical weather discussion will be issued on Monday.

Low Pressure Will Bring Heavy Rain To Florida’s East Coast This Weekend: Weather analysis today reveals that there is a weak low pressure system located over the central Bahamas. This weather system is currently producing some scattered shower and thunderstorm activity across eastern Florida. This convection is also occurring over the northern and eastern Bahamas, however, all of the convection is very disorganized.

Analysis of environmental conditions reveals that there is strong wind shear occurring over this system & because of this, development into a tropical system looks highly unlikely.

It is expected that this low pressure system will meander in the area around the northern Bahamas and the Florida Peninsula through this weekend. Because of this, it will produce rounds of thunderstorms with heavy rainfall all along Florida’s East Coast throughout this weekend. In addition, this heavy rain looks to persist along Florida’s East Coast right into much of next week, which could exacerbate the flood threat.

All-in-all, rainfall totals of 4 to 8 inches with locally higher amounts can be expected up and down Florida’s East Coast, which will probably lead to urban flood issues.

Additionally, the weather setup over the Bahamas and Florida will likely lead to a persistent onshore wind flow to be in place for the next several days along Florida’s East Coast. Because of this, expect rip currents, rough surf and hazardous marine conditions all along Florida’s East Coast.

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Tropical Development Continues To Be Possible Over The Central Tropical Atlantic As Soon As The First Half Of Next Week: A tropical wave has pushed off of the coast of Africa and is currently located over the far eastern Tropical Atlantic. This wave is producing a large area of convection, however, none of the convection is organized or concentrated.

It is expected that this wave will interact with a surface trough of low pressure that’s located to the northwest of the Cape Verde Islands during this weekend. It is then expected that this entire system should push into the central Tropical Atlantic during the first half of next week & tropical development may become somewhat possible by then.

Even though development is a possibility, it is definitely not a certainty. The reason why is because it appears that the conditions for development are not all that favorable. This includes some dry air over the tropical Atlantic, especially in the region between 35 and 45 West Longitude. Also, the easterly mid-level winds over the tropical Atlantic look rather quick & because of this, our wave might have a hard time trying to consolidate and develop as it will not really be able to vertically align.

All-in-all, while development of this wave looks definitely possible as it heads westward across the tropical Atlantic, I think there’s actually a better chance that it doesn’t develop much at all due to the unfavorable conditions I’ve already mentioned. It’s not out of the realm of possibilities that this disturbance could end up being a “dud” like Invest 99-L from late August.

That being said, my recommendation to those of you in the Lesser Antilles, Virgin Island and Puerto Rico is to keep a close eye on the progress of this wave. While I do think development looks very slow to occur, it is still possible, especially once it gets near the Lesser Antilles late next week.

The next tropical weather discussion will be issued on Saturday.

Low Pressure Expected To Develop Near South Florida Over The Next Couple Of Days: Weather analysis today reveals that there are remains of a frontal system that stretch across the northwestern Bahamas into South Florida. This weather feature is currently producing areas of showers and isolated thunderstorms across the northwestern Bahamas as well as across southeastern Florida. Analysis of radar loops seems to suggest that there may be some sort of mid-level circulation forming near the northwestern Bahamas

I do think that it is possible that we could see a low pressure system form along this old frontal boundary near southeastern Florida over the next couple of days. In fact, some of the model guidance and their ensemble members are pointing to low pressure forming in the area between southeast Florida and the northwestern Bahamas during this weekend before any low pressure system crosses Florida and gets into the eastern Gulf early next week. While these ensemble members do show low pressure forming near southeast Florida, they also point to only a 10-20 percent chance of it developing into a tropical system.

Interestingly though, the 06Z run of the GFS model does show a low-end tropical storm quickly spinning up very near the coast of southeast Florida late Friday into early Saturday. I’m not sure that I buy into this, but it is something that will be watched closely, just in case.

What this remnant frontal boundary and any low pressure systems that form will do is produce a very wet weekend across the eastern coast of Florida. In fact, the next 5-7 days or so could see some very heavy rainfall along Florida’s East Coast. These rainfall totals, which could amount to 5 to 10 inches is probably going to lead to urban flood issues, especially in the area from about Daytona southward to about Fort Lauderdale.

Additionally, this weather setup will also lead to a persistent onshore wind flow to be in place for the next several days along Florida’s East Coast. Because of this, expect rip currents, rough surf and hazardous marine conditions all along Florida’s East Coast.

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Eastern & Central Tropical Atlantic Tropical Development Continues To Be Possible As Soon As Early Next Week: I do think that it is quite possible that we could see tropical development occur somewhere in the area between the Lesser Antilles and the coast of Africa during the first half of next week.

It is expected that a tropical wave will push off of the coast of Africa over the next couple of days or so. This wave will interact with another tropical wave that’s now over the eastern Tropical Atlantic leading to the potential for a tropical system to develop sometime during the first half of next week.

Overall, there is some pretty strong model support for a tropical system to form over the eastern and central Tropical Atlantic next week as conditions look to be favorable for development. In fact, the European ensemble model guidance is showing upwards of a 50-60 percent chance of tropical development by the time this wave reaches about 40 West Longitude during the early part of next week.

A large majoirty of the ensemble guidance members seems to suggest that whatever tropical system forms early next week may end up very near, if not right over the Leeward Islands and the northeastern Caribbean around Thursday or so of next week. That said, there is a second cluster of ensemble members that forecast this system to track a little further south and cross the northern Windward Islands instead later next week & then track northwestward towards Puerto Rico and Hispaniola next weekend. Beyond this, most, if not all, of the ensemble guidance members show a curve to the north and northeast away from the Bahamas and the United States.

Here Are My Thoughts: Given everything that I’ve looked at today, I think that there is a decent chance that we will probably see a depression and very probably a tropical storm form by the time that tropical wave reaches about 40-45 West Longitude around the early part of next week. Additional development and strengthening is then quite possible as this system pushes towards the Lesser Antilles for later next week.

This means that those of you in the Lesser Antilles, the Virgin Islands, Puerto Rico and Hispaniola should closely monitor the progress of this wave. Given the current data, this system should probably affect the Lesser Antilles around Thursday of next week & then affect the Virgin Islands, Puerto Rico and Hispaniola around Friday and Saturday of next week. How strong might it be? That’s a big unknown right now, but I wouldn’t at all be surprised to see this be a tropical storm impact for the Lesser Antilles, Virgin Islands, Puerto Rico and Hispaniola.

It goes without saying that I will be keeping a very close eye on this particular wave & will have many, many more updates for you in the coming days.

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Western Caribbean Tropical Development Is A Possibility Around The Middle Part Of This Month: I really think that we are going to have to keep very close tabs on the western and northwestern Caribbean for potential tropical development around the middle part of this month.

While the model guidance aren’t quite showing a significant signal for development as of yet (there are hints in the guidance though), I think that the conditions could be quite favorable for development. It is expected that a Central American Gyre feature will develop by mid-month, which would probably lead to slow, but gradual tropical development over the western and northwestern Caribbean.

In addition, the environmental conditions, including both the wind shear values and thermodynamic setup, looks to be very favorable for development in the western half of the Caribbean during this time frame. Because of this, I do have quite a bit of concern that we will very probably see a tropical system pop in the western Caribbean during the mid-month period (around October 15-20 or so).

Also, it also looks possible that we could have an upper level trough in place over the eastern half of the United States around that time frame. If this occurs, then whatever forms in the western and northwestern Caribbean would be pulled north and northeastward towards the eastern Gulf, Florida, the Bahamas and the East Coast of the United States.

Needless to say, this setup for possible western Caribbean tropical development is something that I will be keeping a very close eye on. I will have more updates on this as needed.

The next tropical weather discussion will be issued on Friday.

Hurricane Imelda: Imelda is strengthening today as it heads for Bermuda. Reconnaissance aircraft are finding a central barometric pressure of about 966 millibars and maximum winds of around 100 mph. The net wind shear over Imelda right now is very low due to the fact that it is moving in the same direction as the mid and upper level winds. Because of this, additional strengthening is likely & because of this, Imelda could be very near or at Category 3 intensity when it passes over Bermuda tonight. This means that those of you on the island of Bermuda need to be ready for a decent blow with wind gusts of well over 100 mph possible tonight.

Once Imelda passes over Bermuda tonight, it’ll likely become captured by an upper level trough of low pressure over the North Atlantic. Because of this, it’ll transition into an extra-tropical storm as it moves northeastward into the open Atlantic late this week through this weekend.

Forecast Impacts For Bermuda: A direct impact from a Category 2 to Category 3 hurricane is fully expected on the island of Bermuda tonight.

This means that tropical storm force winds will develop on Bermuda this afternoon. Hurricane conditions with wind gusts of well over 100 mph (maybe approaching 110-120 mph) can be expected tonight.

In addition to the very strong winds, heavy rain with amounts of 2 to 4 inches can be expected during this afternoon, tonight and Thursday morning. This rain could lead to areas of flash flooding across the island.

Coastal flooding with large and damaging waves are also expected across Bermuda this afternoon, tonight and Thursday morning.

Finally, it should be noted that Imelda is moving quickly and because of this, much calmer weather conditions will overspread Bermuda as soon as midday Thursday. All-in-all though, I think that we’re looking at extremely rough weather conditions for 8 to 12 hours or so across Bermuda.

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Eastern & Central Tropical Atlantic Tropical Development Is A Possibility Next Week: It continues to look possible that we could see tropical development in the area between the coast of Africa and the Lesser Antilles during next week thanks to a tropical wave, which is expected to push off of the coast of Africa in a couple of days from now.

Some of the model guidance and their ensemble members continue to point to this possibility. In fact, most of the ensemble members (both GFS and European model) that do show development indicate a track that could threaten the Lesser Antilles and the eastern Caribbean around Wednesday and Thursday of next week. Beyond this, the ensemble members then suggest any tropical system could be pulled northward into the open Atlantic away from the Bahamas and the United States.

As for the AI models, the Google Deep Mind AI ensemble model seems to be indicating a quicker turn to the north before it reaches the Lesser Antilles leading to no impacts at all.

At this point, I think that the best thing to do is to just keep an eye on this tropical wave once it pushes off of the coast of Africa on Friday. The good news is that we have plenty of time to keep an eye on it & because of this, it’s nothing to be overly concerned or worried about if you are in the Leeward Islands or the northeastern Caribbean.

The next tropical weather discussion will be issued on Thursday.

Hurricane Imelda: We are seeing a true Atlantic Fujiwhara interaction occur today between Humberto and Imelda and this is something that you do not see very often. The analysis of both hurricanes show that they seem to be imparting wind shear on each other. With a much weaker Humberto now, it seems that Imelda may end up absorbing part of the circulation of Humberto over the next few days.

Back to Imelda, reconnaissance aircraft have found that the storm has a central barometric pressure of between 980-982 millibars. In addition, peak winds measured by reconnaissance aircraft, are around 75 mph. Because of this, Imelda is now a hurricane.

Imelda is now heading towards the northeast and it is expected that this northeast to east-northeast track will continue for the next few days. It is expected that the relative wind shear over Imelda will fall to very low levels by tomorrow as the hurricane will be moving in the same direction as the upper level winds. Because of this, fairly quick strengthening of Imelda is likely & because of this, the hurricane may be about a Category 2 strength when it passes right over Bermuda on Wednesday night.

Forecast Impacts For Bermuda: A direct hurricane impact from Imelda is expected on the island of Bermuda on Wednesday night as it appears quite possible that the eye of the hurricane will pass right over the island.

This means that tropical storm conditions will develop on Bermuda during Wednesday afternoon. Hurricane conditions with wind gusts of over 100 mph can be expected during Wednesday night with these conditions persisting into part of Thursday morning. Weather conditions will then rapidly improve by late Thursday.

Model Track Forecast:

Satellite Imagery:

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Locally Heavy Rain Possible Along The Northern Gulf Coast During This Weekend: Things “might” get a little interesting over the northern Gulf this weekend as some energy from the two hurricanes break off and rotate westward into the Gulf by later this week. This piece of energy is then expected to push northward reaching the northern Gulf during this weekend & is likely to produce locally heavy rain across much of the northern Gulf Coast throughout this weekend.

One thing to note is that there are a few ensemble members of both the GFS model and the European model that do show a low pressure system forming over the northern Gulf at some point this weekend. At this point though, the ensemble guidance only show a 10 percent chance of tropical development, probably due to the presence of lots of dry air in the western Gulf, which could inhibit any sort of development of any low pressure system that forms.

Either way though, rain seems likely to occur this weekend across immediate coastal areas of southeastern Louisiana, southern Mississippi, southern Alabama and the Florida Panhandle. While it seems possible that a majority of heavy rain may stay offshore, 1 to 4 inches of rain is a possibility across these areas this weekend.

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Could There Be Tropical Development Over The Eastern & Central Tropical Atlantic Next Week?: Some of the deterministic and ensemble members of the GFS, European and Google Deep Mind AI models are showing the possibility of a tropical wave that looks to push off of the coast of Africa on Friday to develop as it heads westward across the eastern and central tropical Atlantic next week.

At this point, there are a few members of both the GFS and European ensemble model that show this possible development. Most members that do show development forecast it to reach the area near the northern Leeward Islands around next Thursday and next Friday. It should be pointed out that the European ensemble model guidance does show about a 30 percent chance of tropical development next week over the eastern and central Tropical Atlantic.

For now, this is just something to keep an eye on, but at this point, I don’t think that it’s anything to be overly concerned or worried about if you are in the Leeward Islands or the northeastern Caribbean.

The next tropical weather discussion will be issued on Wednesday.

Tropical Storm Imelda: Imelda seems to be gradually becoming better organized today with satellite imagery showing deep convection occurring very near the center of circulation, which is located right over Abaco Island in the northwestern Bahamas. Additionally, reconnaissance aircraft investigation Imelda have found that the central barometric pressure has fallen to 994 millibars with maximum winds in the 45-50 mph range.

Imelda is moving slowly towards the north & it is expected that this northward track will continue throughout the rest of today and tonight. During Tuesday, Hurricane Humberto, which is located to the east of Imelda, is expected to break down the high pressure ridge causing Imelda to turn abruptly to the east-northeast. This east-northeasterly track is then expected to continue through the middle and later parts of this week.

This means that it is all but guaranteed that Imelda will stay well offshore of the US Southeast Coast. This also means that Imelda is now expected to directly impact the island of Bermuda as a Category 1 or 2 hurricane on Wednesday night into Thursday morning.

Forecast Impacts:
For The Northwestern Bahamas: Squally weather with occasional wind gusts of up to tropical storm force are expected across the northwestern Bahamas throughout the rest of today. Conditions will then improve as we get into Tuesday.

For Florida’s East Coast: The circulation on the western side of Imelda is likely to continue to produce gusty northerly winds throughout the day today along Florida’s East Coast from about Daytona Beach southward through Vero Beach and Stuart. These winds will diminish as we get into tonight and especially on Tuesday.

Coastal Parts Of South Carolina & North Carolina: Some additional rain, which will be locally heavy at times, is expected across coastal parts of South Carolina and southeastern North Carolina throughout today, tonight and Tuesday. Additional rainfall amounts of up to one more inch can be expected in some areas. Weather conditions are likely to improve as we get into Tuesday night and especially Wednesday.

Bermuda: A direct hurricane impact from Imelda is expected on the island of Bermuda on Wednesday night as it appears quite possible that the eye of the hurricane will pass right over the island. This means that tropical storm conditions will develop on Bermuda during Wednesday afternoon. Hurricane conditions with wind gusts of about 100 mph look likely on Wednesday night into Thursday morning. Weather conditions then will rapidly improve by late Thursday and especially Friday.

It should be noted that this is in addition to the tropical storm conditions that are expected on Bermuda from the outer bands from Humberto. These tropical storm conditions are expected during tonight and Tuesday.

Model Track Forecast:

Satellite Imagery:

The next tropical weather discussion will be issued on Tuesday.

Tropical Depression #9 (Future Imelda): It is looking much more likely today that Future Imelda will turn sharply to the east as we get into Monday and Tuesday and thus head away from the Southeastern United States. This is, obviously, great news for the Carolinas as the impacts from the storm will be much, much less than what was anticipated even a day or two ago.

TD 9 is still disorganized with the center of circulation located just south of Andros Island in the Bahamas & convection extending northward from there towards the Carolinas. To the east of TD 9 is Category 4 Hurricane Humberto, which is expected to close the distance from TD 9 over the next 24 hours and become a big influence on where the depression will track throughout this coming week. It should be noted that Humberto peaked at a 160 mph Category 5 hurricane yesterday & the size and strength of Humberto will have quite a huge influence on pulling TD 9 sharply to the east.

There has been a delay in how quickly TD 9 is organizing and this has caused the depression to not move as quickly to the north as what was expected. Because of this, it is missing the window for it to link up with the upper level low pressure system over the Southeastern United States, which would have pulled it inland into the Carolinas.

Instead, what looks to occur is that the upper level low pressure system will weaken by Tuesday and large and powerful Humberto will become the main influence in where TD 9 will track. This should cause TD 9 to turn sharply to the east right off of the northeast Florida or east-central Florida coast as we get into Tuesday and Wednesday. From there, it seems plausible now that Future Imelda will track towards Bermuda & potentially impact the island later this week. This is what a majority of the ensemble members are now showing – a quick movement to the east-northeast towards Bermuda & then out into the open Atlantic.

That said, there are a few ensemble members of the European model that do show TD 9 getting left behind by Humberto & languishing just offshore of the Carolina and Mid-Atlantic coastline later this week through next weekend. For now, this is not expected as most indicators seem to point towards a quick exit to the east-northeast. That said, this is something that’ll be watched, just in case.

Forecast Impacts:
As for Florida’s East Coast – Any tropical storm force sustained winds will very likely stay well offshore of the east coast of Florida as TD 9 (Future Imelda) tracks to northwest and parallels Florida’s East Coast over the next couple of days. Instead, I think that we’ll see occasional heavy showers that’ll affect the immediate coast of the Treasure Coast and Space Coast of Florida mostly during the day on Monday. Some of these showers may produce wind gusts of up to 40 mph in squalls. Overall, not a big deal at all. These squally conditions will quickly come to an end by Tuesday morning.

As for the Carolinas – Even though TD 9 is now expected to remain far to the south of the Carolinas, heavy rain still looks to be a threat as the moisture from TD 9 interacts with a stationary front in the area.

This means that rainfall totals of 2 to 5 inches can be expected along the immediate South Carolina coast as well as along the immediate coast of southeastern North Carolina from today through Wednesday. This rain will lead to scattered areas of flash flooding. In addition, gusty winds in squalls, rough surf and beach erosion can be expected along the entire coasts of South Carolina and North Carolina over the next 2-3 days.

For Bermuda – Direct impacts from Future Imelda are a possibility late this coming week should this system head directly to the east-northeast. This means that heavy rain, tropical storm to hurricane force winds and extremely rough seas are a distinct possibility around Thursday and Friday. It’s definitely something to watch closely, if you are on the island of Bermuda.

Imelda’s rich plume of tropical air will collide with a stalled front along the coastal Carolinas Monday and Tuesday, bringing the threat of several days of heavy rainfall and scattered flash flooding ahead of the storm along the coastal plains of the Carolinas from Charleston, South Carolina, to Wilmington and Morehead City in North Carolina. Rainfall totals should generally stay in the 3- to 5-inch range for these areas.

Model Track Forecast:

Satellite Imagery:

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Looking Beyond Humberto & TD 9 (Imelda): Unfortunately, we are still not done with the hurricane once Humberto and Imelda exit stage right late this coming week. In fact, I still think that we’re going to be tracking tropical systems through the month of October and very probably well into November.

The latest European weekly models is pointing to the possibility of a brief break in activity during the week of October 6.

Beyond this, the European weekly models seem to suggest activity will pick up big time starting during the week of October 13 in the area that includes the Gulf, the northwestern Caribbean and the southwestern North Atlantic. This includes the Yucatan, Cuba, the north-central and northeast Gulf Coast, Florida & the Southeastern US coast, the Bahamas and Bermuda. This very active tropical activity may then continue through the week of October 20.

In fact, the European weekly model is forecasting 140 percent of normal activity during the week of October 13 and 160 percent of normal activity during the week of October 20.

So, unfortunately, I think that we’re looking at yet another year with a lot of tropical storm and hurricane season late in the hurricane season.

This is something that I will be keeping a close eye on and will have updates as needed.

The next tropical weather discussion will be issued on Monday.

Tropical Depression #9 (Future Imelda): Satellite imagery, weather analysis and reports from reconnaissance aircraft indicate that now Tropical Depression #9 is becoming better organized today with clusters of thunderstorm activity occurring from the southeastern Bahamas southward through eastern Cuba to far western Haiti. Additionally, reconnaissance aircraft have found a low-level center with this system just north of the northeastern coast of Cuba and because of this, it is now a depression. I expect that TD 9 will likely strengthen into a tropical storm as soon as later tonight or during Sunday.

The forecast of TD 9 continues to be a very difficult one as there are no less than 4 weather features influencing the track and strength of this system. These weather features include (1) A weak upper level low pressure system located over the Florida Straits, which seems to be guiding the depression to the north right now; (2) An upper level low pressure system that’s located over the southeastern United States, which should help guide TD 9 northward as we get into Sunday; (3) A high pressure ridge, that’s located near Bermuda, which is expected to slide to the east and weaken, allowing for a possible “escape route” for TD 9 & (4) Almost Category 5 Hurricane Humberto that’s located to the east of the depression, which might try to use its strength and size to pull TD 9 away from the US Southeast Coast causing it to get close to the coast of South Carolina, but not make landfall.

The forecast track of TD 9 throughout the weekend looks fairly straight forward as it’ll be guided towards the north-northwest by the high pressure ridge near Bermuda & the upper level low pressure system over the southeastern United States. This means that this system will head from southeast to northwest through the Bahamas over the weekend & then parallel Florida’s East Coast during Monday. That said, it is expected that this system should remain about 100 miles or so to the east of Florida’s East Coast & because of this, significant rain and wind impacts are not expected across the Florida Peninsula. Instead, expect some occasional showers across the Florida Peninsula with wind gusts of up to 40 mph at times along Florida’s East Coast from Monday through Tuesday, especially from Melbourne to Jacksonville.

As we get into Monday night and Tuesday, the forecast of TD 9 becomes A LOT more complicated and uncertain. What is expected to happen is that the upper level low pressure system over the Southeastern US will be trying to pull future Imelda northwestward towards the Carolinas. At the same time this is occurring, Hurricane Humberto will be trying to capture the depression and pull it eastward. You can see this push and pull between these two weather features on the depression in the latest model guidance.

There has been a notable shift eastward in all of the model guidance’s track of TD 9. It seems that the model guidance are sensing that Category 4 Hurricane Humberto is exerting a bigger influence on TD 9 than what was previously thought. Also, the upper level low pressure system over the Southeastern United States could end up being weaker leading it to exert less influence on the track of the depression. This has led to most of the models to now forecast the depression to slow way down in forward speed just barely offshore of the Carolinas and then turn abruptly to the east leading it to get close, but not make landfall.

The 12Z hurricane track models all seem to suggest a quick yank to the east on Tuesday before TD 9 reaches the Carolinas.

Last night’s Canadian model initially shows a track that yanks the depression away from the Carolinas. It should be noted that the Canadian model does forecast Humberto not fully capturing TD 9 leading to the depression to turn back to the north and ultimately making it as far north as Southern New England next weekend.

The European ensemble model guidance members show that there are up to 40 percent of their members that indicate a stall just barely offshore of the Carolinas followed by a turn back towards the west later next week

The 06Z run of the European AI model shows a lot of meandering just offshore of the Carolinas during next week followed by this system making landfall in the Outer Banks and heading up the Chesapeake.

The most recent run (12Z) of the GFS model seems to have trended towards future Imelda tracking closer to Florida’s East Coast on Monday. These model trends will definitely need to be watched as this trend westward by the GFS model would put heavier squalls into the Treasure Coast, the Space Coast and parts of the First Coast of Florida during Monday. Beyond this, the 12Z run of the GFS model shows TD 9 being yanked to the east just offshore of the South Carolina coast by Wednesday.

Here Are My Thoughts About TD 9’s Track Towards The Carolinas: It cannot be emphasized enough of how complicated and uncertain the forecast still is for TD 9 as it tracks towards the Carolinas as we get into Tuesday and Wednesday.

That upper level low pressure system over the Southeastern United States looks to try to pull TD 9 northwestward towards the Carolinas, but it appears that Humberto’s strength and size may be large enough to pull it to the east instead.

What, to me, looks to possibly occur is that future Imelda will slow way down in forward speed just barely offshore of the South Carolina coast during Tuesday into Wednesday. My thinking is that the center of TD 9 may end up tracking as close as about 100 miles or so offshore of the South Carolina coast during Tuesday and Tuesday night. As we get into Wednesday though, Humberto may partially capture TD 9 and pull it eastward increasing the distance it is from the Carolinas.

Ultimately though, it is possible that Humberto may end up leaving TD 9 behind around late next week leading to even more uncertainty as to where it could end up tracking – whether it be back westward towards the Carolinas or a turn to the northwest and north leading it to head for the Mid Atlantic or New England.

I do think that the depression will get close enough so that there will be heavy rain and gusty winds along the Georgia, South Carolina and North Carolina coasts starting on Tuesday and continuing through Wednesday and perhaps into Thursday. Additionally, some coastal flooding is also possible depending on how close the center of TD 9 gets to the coast.

Even though it is looking increasingly more likely that TD 9 will stay offshore, flooding from rainfall is still a very real threat across eastern North Carolina and eastern South Carolina throughout the first half of next week. Rainfall totals could end up being in the neighborhood of 3 to 7 inches across much of eastern South Carolina and southeastern and eastern North Carolina during next week.

Bottom Line Is That Everyone along Florida’s East Coast, as well as across southeastern Georgia, eastern South Carolina and eastern North Carolina should pay very close attention to the updates of TD 9/Imelda. My biggest concern with TD 9 is the potential for rainfall produced flash flooding in the coastal Carolinas next week & you should be concerned too, if you live in these areas.

I’ve spent so much time trying to figure out TD 9/Imelda that I’m not going to cover Hurricane Humberto. Just know that Humberto should still pass far enough west of Bermuda to not bring hurricane conditions to the island. It looks quite possible though that Humberto could bring tropical storm conditions to Bermuda during the day on Tuesday.

Model Track Forecast:

Satellite Imagery:

The next tropical weather discussion will be issued on Sunday.

Invest 94-L (Future Imelda): First things first, it continues to look like that Invest 94-L (future Imelda) is going to be a definite threat and very possibly directly impact some part of the Carolinas early next week. That said, areas, including northeast Florida, coastal Georgia and eastern and southeastern Virginia need to watch the progress of Invest 94-L extremely closely as impacts in these areas are quite possible. Also, there continues to be a huge amount of uncertainty as to the exact track of this system & whether it’ll barrel inland or stall and then sit and spin very near the Carolina coastline next week. Needless to say, Invest 94-L is a system that needs to be watched extremely closely.

Satellite imagery and weather analysis indicates that the convection around Invest 94-L seems to be gradually organizing. In addition, it appears that a low pressure system has formed somewhere between the southeast coast of Cuba and the Turks and Caicos Islands.

Analysis of the environmental conditions around Invest 94-L reveals that there is a bit less wind shear over this system as compared to yesterday. Also, it appears that Invest 94-L will be heading into lower wind shear conditions and more favorable conditions for development during this weekend. This means that it is extremely likely that Invest 94-L will become Tropical Storm Imelda within the next couple of days or so.

In addition, it is expected that Invest 94-L will move from southeast to northwest through the southeastern and central Bahamas through Saturday and then track across the northwestern Bahamas during Sunday.

By Monday, the uncertainty of where Invest 94-L will go once it is north of the Bahamas is extremely high. The model guidance diverge quite a bit in their forecasts of where this system might go.

The GFS model and a majority of its ensemble members show a track that takes Invest 94-L directly inland into South Carolina and far southeastern North Carolina around Monday night and Tuesday.

The most recent European model run also now shows Invest 94-L moving directly inland into South Carolina on Monday night and Tuesday. As for the ensemble members of the European model, a majority of them show a track that takes this system directly inland somewhere between Hilton Head and Myrtle Beach with a few members showing a landfall as far northeast as southeastern and eastern North Carolina.

As for the Google Deep Mind AI ensemble model, they are split right down the middle. Half of the members showing a direct inland track right into South Carolina. The other half of ensemble members show Invest 94-L getting turned abruptly to the east as it approaches the coast of the Carolinas due to its interaction with Humberto leading to Invest 94-L to not make landfall at all.

Here Are My Thoughts: While I do think that it is looking fairly likely that Invest 94-L will directly impact somewhere between Savannah, Georgia and Wilmington, North Carolina, the uncertainty with the exact track and strength of this system is very high.

It cannot be emphasized enough how complicated the weather pattern is going to be during this weekend into next week and this will certainly affect where Invest 94-L goes.

The first player in the weather pattern is Hurricane Humberto, which is located to the east of Invest 94-L. The closer Humberto and Invest 94-L are in distance, the more they will affect each other with track and strength.

The second player in the weather pattern is an upper level low pressure system over the southeastern United States. If Humberto does not alter the track of Invest 94-L, then it looks plausible that this upper level low pressure system will be able to pull Invest 94-L directly into the southeastern United States.

I think that there are at least a couple of scenarios that could occur with Invest 94-L:

Scenario Number 1 is that Imelda tracks fairly quickly to the northwest from the northern Bahamas on Sunday to the South Carolina coast by Monday night into Tuesday as that upper-level low pressure system captures Invest 94-L and pulls it inland.

This first scenario would lead to hurricane force winds and surge issues along the South Carolina coastline from Monday into Tuesday. In addition, we would be looking at a flooding rainfall across much of the Carolinas and the Piedmont during at least the first half of next week.

Scenario Number 2 is that Invest 94-L (Future Imelda) moves a bit slower in forward speed and is influenced more by Hurricane Humberto as that upper level low moves out of the way to the northeast. This leads to Invest 94-L to approach the Carolina coast, but then stalls just offshore being pulled to the east away from the coastline. This would make for an extraordinarily difficult forecast as it opens up multiple different other scenarios. This includes Humberto pulling Invest 94-L with it out into the open Atlantic. It also includes Humberto departing to the northeast and leaving Invest 94-L behind causing it to track again towards the coast for a second attempt at a landfall late next week.

It Is Of My Opinion that I think scenario number 1 may be more likely to occur than scenario number 2. This means that I think that it is likely Invest 94-L will become a depression within the next 24-30 hours or so as it tracks through the southeastern and central Bahamas. This system should then strengthen into a tropical storm and then a hurricane as it approaches the Carolinas on Monday and crosses the Gulf Stream as it does so.

I do think the area of highest threat right now of a landfall and direct hit from this system looks to be along the South Carolina coast on Monday night or Tuesday as a hurricane of perhaps Category 1 or low end Category 2 strength.

Now, is this a guaranteed forecast?? Absolutely not!! There are a lot of moving parts with the forecast of this system, including how quickly Humberto strengthens, Humberto’s forward speed, how strong the upper level high pressure system is & the evolution of the upper-level low pressure system over the Southeast United States.

It seems clear though that Invest 94-L is very likely to develop & become a tropical storm and then a hurricane. It also seems fairly likely now that Invest 94-L is a threat to the Southeastern coast of the US & especially the Carolinas.

In addition to the potential for impacts from tropical storm to hurricane force winds and surge issues along the South Carolina coast, I am also quite concerned about the potential for heavy rain and flood issues across the Lowcountry of South Carolina into central and eastern North Carolina and southern Virginia. In fact, it looks like the setup is favorable for a Predecessor Rain Event to occur out ahead of future Imelda this weekend across southern Virginia, central and especially eastern North Carolina and across the Lowcountry of South Carolina.

Now, we may end up adding in the heavy rainfall from Invest 94-L (future Imelda) into the mix and this could lead to some big time flood issues across southern Virginia, a large part of North Carolina and eastern and northeastern South Carolina. What concerns me is that there’s the possibility that future Imelda could slow way down or stall near the coastal Carolinas on Monday and Tuesday and exacerbate the rainfall issues.

Over the next day or two, I should be able to tell you in more detail exactly which parts of the Carolinas will see the most impactful conditions. I strongly urge everyone from southeastern Georgia through the Carolinas to southern Virginia to closely monitor the updates of this system. If it were me, I would start preparing now for tropical storm and hurricane conditions along the coast & for the potential of serious rainfall produced flash flooding for areas along the coast and areas inland across the Carolinas and southern Virginia.

Model Track Forecast:

Satellite Imagery:

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Hurricane Humberto: The discussion on Humberto will be a very short one again, as most of my attention is on Invest 94-L (future Imelda).

Humberto is undergoing rapid strengthening today and it looks quite likely that it will be a major hurricane as soon as tonight. Humberto looks to probably peak at Category 4 strength as it begins to turn to the northwest and shoot the gap between the Bahamas and Bermuda this weekend.

As we get into the first half of next week, Humberto looks to curve to the north and northeast around the western side of a high pressure ridge over the central North Atlantic. Because of this, it still looks likely that Humberto will remain east of the Bahamas and the East Coast of the United States.

As for Bermuda, it looks as if Humberto will track far enough to the west of the island around Tuesday and Wednesday to not directly impact Bermuda. That being said, some impacts to Bermuda are possible, especially in terms of rough surf and some of the outer rain bands affecting the island during the first half of next week.

Model Track Forecast:

Satellite Imagery:

The next tropical weather discussion will be issued on Saturday.

Invest 94-L (Future Imelda): First things first, I do think that Invest 94-L (future Imelda) is a potential very real threat to areas from northeast Florida and coastal Georgia through the Carolinas and into southeastern Virginia sometime early next week. That being said, there is still a ton of uncertainty as to how strong this system will become and where it will ultimately track. Invest 94-L is definitely a system that needs to be watched extremely closely.

Satellite imagery and weather analysis reveals that Invest 94-L is still disorganized with most of the thunderstorms being blown to the south by northerly wind shear. Any center that is trying to form seems to be located of any center that might be trying to form. The actual center looks to be located near the north coast of of the Dominican Republic with most of the convection occurring just to the south of the Dominican Republic.

It is anticipated that Invest 94-L will move into the southeastern Bahamas by Friday and then push into the central and northern Bahamas during Saturday and Saturday night. The environmental conditions look more favorable for Invest 94-L to develop in the Bahamas and because of this, I do think that we’ll see it become a depression sometime this weekend as it pushes northwestward through the Bahamas.

A look at the latest model guidance reveals that there has been a trend over the last 24 hours for Humberto, which is located to the east of Invest 94-L, to move slower & for Invest 94-L to move quicker in forward speed. This has led to a forecast increased distance between these two systems leading to them having less influence on each other. The reason for these changes in the model guidance is due to a trend towards a stronger upper level high pressure system over Humberto leading it to strengthen quicker & move slower in forward speed.

This increased separation between these two systems gives Invest 94-L (future Imelda) more of an opportunity to strengthen without being affected by Humberto. It also leads to Invest 94-L to potentially be influenced more by the upper level low pressure system over the Southeastern United States. The consequence is for Invest 94-L to be pulled right into the Southeastern coast of the United States between northeast Florida and southeastern Virginia early next week rather than be booted away from the coast and out into the open Atlantic.

Both the most recent GFS ensemble and European ensemble model guidance have a large number of members that show a track that takes Invest 94-L right into eastern South Carolina and eastern North Carolina sometime between Monday and Wednesday of next week. That said, there are some members of both ensembles that show a track towards coastal Georgia and coastal South Carolina while other members still do show a track that still keeps it just offshore of the Southeast coast of the US.

The Google Deep Mind AI ensemble model members are split with some showing a landfall somewhere between northeast Florida and coastal South Carolina around Monday or Tuesday & other members that show a sharp turn to the northeast and has this system going out into the open Atlantic.

All-in-all though, the model guidance have definitely trended towards a higher threat to the Southeast coast of the United States during the early part of next week.

Here Are My Thoughts: As I have mentioned a few times already, I do think that the odds of Invest 94-L directly impacting some part of the Southeast coast of the US are increasing & everyone from northeast Florida through the Carolinas to southeastern and eastern Virginia need to watch this system extremely closely.

In looking at all of the data today, my take is that I think that this system will become a depression by this weekend in the Bahamas and then strengthen into a tropical storm shortly after that. From there, additional strengthening into a hurricane looks quite plausible especially when its approaching the coastline on Monday & crosses the Gulf Stream.

I do think the area of highest threat right now of a landfall and direct hit from this system looks to be along the South Carolina coast into southeastern North Carolina late Monday or early Tuesday as a hurricane of perhaps Category 1 or Category 2 strength.

Now, is this a guaranteed forecast?? Absolutely not!! There are a lot of moving parts with the forecast of this system, including how quickly Humberto strengthens, Humberto’s forward speed, how strong the upper level high pressure system is & the evolution of the upper-level low pressure system over the Southeast United States.

It seems clear though that Invest 94-L is very likely to develop & become a tropical storm and then a hurricane. It also seems as if this system is a threat to the Southeastern coast of the US & especially the Carolinas.

Model Track Forecast:

Satellite Imagery:

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Tropical Storm Humberto: My discussion on Humberto will be shorter than the one for Invest 94-L.

Humberto seems to be strengthening today and this strengthening is likely to continue. Because of this, it is expected to become a hurricane by late Friday or early Saturday.

It is expected that Humberto will remain to the east of the Bahamas and the East Coast of the United States and not be a second threat to these areas.

As for Bermuda, the model guidance seems to have trended further west with the forecast track of Humberto. If these trends hold, then Humberto may end up passing to the west of the island around Tuesday and Wednesday of next week. That being said, some impacts to Bermuda are possible, especially in terms of rough surf and some of the outer rain bands affecting the island during the first half of next week.

That being said, it’s still too soon to say that Bermuda is completely out of the woods in terms of a more direct impact from Humberto. I urge those of you on the island of Bermuda to closely watch the forecasts of Humberto very closely as it’s possible it could be a strong hurricane by the time it reaches the latitude of Bermuda.

Model Track Forecast:

Satellite Imagery:

The next tropical weather discussion will be issued on Friday.