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Summary: Severe storms are expected this afternoon and this evening in an area that stretches from east Texas into the lower Mississippi Valley and the Tennessee Valley. One area that I am concerned with is across central Mississippi and central Alabama where supercell severe thunderstorms are possible that could produce tornadoes, large hail and damaging winds.

Details: A cold front currently stretches from near the Texas Hill Country northeastward through the ArkLaTex, northern Mississippi and western Tennessee. A weak area of low pressure is currently located along this front over western Arkansas and western Louisiana.

The air mass to the south of this front is warm and very humid with dew point temperatures in the 70s stretching from south Texas across Louisiana and into western Mississippi and southern Arkansas.

It is expected that the atmosphere will become very unstable by this afternoon across areas that are to the south of the frontal system. In addition, there is expected to be strong amounts of low-level wind shear in place, which will lead to an environment that’s favorable for supercells, especially across northeastern Louisiana, central Mississippi and central Alabama.

It appears that severe storms will form in an area from northern Louisiana into central Mississippi by early this afternoon. Other thunderstorm development looks possible during early this afternoon from northern Alabama through northern Mississippi.

These storms are expected to evolve into supercells capable of producing tornadoes by late this afternoon and continue through this evening in the area from central Mississippi through central Alabama. In addition, the environmental conditions look favorable for the production of strong tornadoes across central Mississippi and central Alabama during late this afternoon and this evening.

Eventually, these storms will evolve into clusters of severe storms capable of producing mainly damaging winds across southern Alabama and central and southern Georgia during the overnight hours of tonight.

Finally, as that frontal boundary sinks southward tonight, it is expected to produce additional severe storms during the overnight hours of tonight across parts of southeast Texas, central Louisiana and southern Mississippi. I do think that a majority of these storms should stay north of I-10. Also, these storms may have the capability to produce tornadoes, damaging winds and large hail.

Summary: Numerous severe thunderstorms are expected in the area from the middle Mississippi Valley through the lower Ohio Valley and into the Mid-South this afternoon and this evening. Multiple strong to violent tornadoes of EF-3 or more in strength, widespread damaging winds and large to very large hail is expected, especially across eastern Missouri, northeastern Arkansas, central and southern Illinois, western Kentucky and northwestern Tennessee.

Details: A very active severe weather afternoon and evening is expected across much of the middle Mississippi Valley, the lower Ohio Valley and the Mid-South. It appears likely that there will be a corridor for intense supercells with strong to violent tornadoes this afternoon and this evening across eastern Missouri and central and especially southern Illinois.

NOTE – I do have significant concerns that the St. Louis metro may be at extreme risk for tornadoes late this afternoon and early this evening between about 4 pm CDT and 8 pm CDT.

An upper-level trough of low pressure is expected to push northeastward from the central and northern Plains states into the Midwestern US this afternoon and tonight. In response to this, it is expected that a surface low pressure system will develop across Wisconsin and Minnesota by this evening with a warm front stretching across the Midwestern US. It is likely that a very unstable and strongly sheared air mass will be in place during this afternoon across central and eastern Missouri into southern Illinois, the lower Mississippi Valley and the Mid-South.

Supercell severe thunderstorms are expected to develop between about 2 and 4 pm CDT across the middle Mississippi Valley and the Mid-South. These supercells will exist in a very favorable environment for tornadoes and multiple strong to violent tornadoes of EF-3 or more in strength are likely across eastern Missouri and central and especially southern Illinois.

It appears that eastern Missouri, including the St. Louis metro may be at extreme risk for tornadoes between about 4 pm CDT and 8 pm CDT. Southern Illinois may then be at extreme risk for tornadoes between about 5 pm CDT and 10 pm CDT.

As we get into the overnight hours of tonight, it is expected that these supercells will evolve into clusters of severe storms capable of producing widespread damaging winds across the middle Mississippi Valley and the lower Ohio Valley.

Summary: Severe thunderstorms with very large hail, damaging winds and tornadoes are expected this afternoon and tonight across parts of the central and southern Plains states. Strong tornadoes and hailstones of up to 3 inches in diameter are a possibility across central and eastern Kansas, northern and central Oklahoma and far western Missouri.

Details: Significant severe weather potential looks quite probable later this afternoon and tonight across parts of the central and southern Plans states.

An area of severe storms currently exists across central and northern Kansas and these storms are expected to push into northeastern Kansas and parts of western Missouri, including Topeka and Kansas City by later this afternoon. Damaging winds and large hail will be the main threat with these storms.

A surface low pressure system is expected to develop over the Oklahoma Panhandle and southwestern Kansas by this evening. A very unstable to extremely unstable air mass is expected to be in place to the east of this low pressure system across much of central and eastern Kansas into Oklahoma.

It looks possible that supercell severe thunderstorms will develop over north-central Oklahoma into central Kansas by early this evening. Other supercell storms may develop around or just after sunset across central and southern Oklahoma into north Texas. These supercell severe storms will continue through the nighttime hours of tonight, especially before midnight and will pose a threat for very large hail and tornadoes, some of which will be strong. The area of most concern for the nighttime severe storms will be across much of southern, central and northeast Oklahoma into central and eastern Kansas and even possibly into north Texas.

Summary: Severe thunderstorms with very large to giant hail of 2 to 4 or more inches in diameter, tornadoes, some strong and damaging winds are expected late this afternoon through this evening across central and eastern Oklahoma into the ArkLaTex.

Details: A warm front is expected to extend from northwest to southeast across central and eastern Oklahoma this afternoon. The air mass near and to the south of this warm front is likely to be very unstable to extremely unstable & there is likely to be very strong amounts of low-level wind shear present. This will be an environment that’s very favorable for supercell severe thunderstorms that will be capable of producing extremely large hail, tornadoes and damaging winds.

Several supercell severe thunderstorms look to develop between about 5 pm and 7 pm CDT across central and eastern Oklahoma (mainly east of I-35). Giant hail and tornadoes, some of which will be strong, will be a significant threat with these supercells.

These supercell severe thunderstorms will impact eastern and southeastern Oklahoma into far western Arkansas as well as across the ArkLaTex during this evening. Again, giant hail and strong tornadoes will be a significant threat.

Eventually these supercell storms will evolve into clusters of severe storms during the overnight hours, probably near and after midnight across the ArkLaTex. The main threat near and after midnight will be damaging wind gusts.

I Do Have Significant Concerns With The Severe Weather Threat On Monday Afternoon & Monday Evening: Widespread significant severe weather is expected Monday afternoon and Monday evening across the middle Mississippi Valley into the lower Ohio Valley and the Tennessee Valley. Several supercell severe thunderstorms that are capable of producing strong long track tornadoes and very large hail will be a significant threat across eastern Iowa, eastern Missouri, northeast Arkansas, much of Illinois, far western Indiana, western Kentucky and northwestern Tennessee.

Summary: Severe thunderstorms look most probable later this afternoon through this evening from southern and eastern Oklahoma and northeast and eastern Texas eastward through the ArkLaTex into the lower Mississippi Valley. Large hail, damaging winds and a few tornadoes will be possible. The area of greatest threat for supercells with very large hail and tornadoes will be across the ArkLaTex region.

Details: A round of severe thunderstorms look to develop across southeastern Oklahoma, northeast Texas and across the ArkLaTex by about 4 to 6 pm CDT today. The environmental conditions around these storms will be favorable for supercells capable of producing very large hail and tornadoes.

Eventually these storms will evolve into a cluster of severe storms that push into southern Arkansas, northern Louisiana and western and central Mississippi during this evening into the overnight hours of tonight. A damaging wind threat will exist with this cluster of storms tonight.

Turning To Saturday – It appears that the same areas as today will be prone to seeing severe storms Saturday afternoon and Saturday evening.

Severe thunderstorms that will have the potential to produce very large hail, damaging winds and tornadoes will be a threat across central and eastern Oklahoma and western Arkansas during Saturday afternoon and Saturday evening.

As For Sunday – Severe thunderstorms that will have the potential to produce large hail and tornadoes, some of which may be strong, may be a threat across a large part of Kansas into far northern Oklahoma and across western Missouri by very late Sunday afternoon and Sunday evening.

It appears that we are about to go through a very active severe weather pattern that starts on Thursday and Friday and lasts through this weekend. The areas most at risk for severe weather look to be from the central and southern Plains states through the lower Mississippi Valley into parts of the southeastern US.

Thursday – Severe thunderstorms look most possible Thursday afternoon into Thursday night across southern and eastern Kansas, western and northern Missouri, eastern Nebraska, much of Iowa and southern Minnesota.

These severe storms should begin to develop by mid-afternoon Thursday across the area from southern and eastern Kansas northeastward to Iowa and southern Minnesota. These storms will take the form of supercells and clusters of severe storms & very large hail looks to be the main threat. Additionally, a couple of tornadoes will also be possible during the mid and late afternoon hours of Thursday.

These storms should then evolve into a squall line that has a damaging wind threat across central and northern Missouri, much of Iowa and southern Minnesota by Thursday evening.

Friday – Severe thunderstorms will be a threat across eastern Oklahoma, northeast Texas, southern Missouri, much of Arkansas and northern Louisiana during Friday afternoon and Friday evening.

It appears that a frontal boundary that lies along I-40 will be the main trigger for severe storms during Friday afternoon. The air mass just to the south of this frontal boundary will be very unstable and because of this, the main threat from severe storms will be large hail and damaging winds.

Saturday – Severe thunderstorms look to potentially develop by late Saturday afternoon and early Saturday evening across the southern Plains states. The air mass is expected to be very unstable & the low-level wind shear should support supercell storms.

Tornadoes, large hail and strong winds look to be a threat across southern Kansas, central and eastern Oklahoma and north Texas by late Saturday afternoon. These storms will evolve into a squall line that will bring a damaging wind threat across far eastern Oklahoma, western Arkansas and northeast Texas during Saturday evening.

Sunday – The southern Plains states will once again be the focus area for severe storms during late Sunday afternoon and Sunday evening. Tornadoes, large hail and damaging winds will all be a threat.

The air mass across the southern Plains states is expected to be very unstable with strong low-level wind shear to the east of a sharp dryline. This volatile atmosphere will lead to the possibility of a high-end severe weather threat across central and eastern Kansas, central and eastern Oklahoma, north Texas, western Arkansas and western Missouri during late Sunday afternoon and Sunday evening.

Monday – The severe weather threat looks to shift into the lower Mississippi Valley during Monday afternoon and Monday evening. Severe storms may develop along and ahead of an eastward moving cold front.

The air mass to the east of this front will be quite unstable with strong amounts of low-level wind shear. This means that the storms that do form over the lower Mississippi Valley will be supercells capable of producing tornadoes, large hail and damaging winds during Monday afternoon and Monday evening. It should be pointed out that Monday afternoon and Monday evening could be a high-end severe weather event.

The severe weather threat is expected to increase across areas from the central and southern Plains on Thursday to the Ozarks and the middle and lower Mississippi Valley on Friday.

On Thursday – A strong low pressure system is expected to be located over the northern Plains states. Out ahead of this low pressure system, a strong southerly wind flow will pull warm and humid Gulf air northward into the Plains states.

A large area of thunderstorms along and east of a frontal boundary and these storms will affect a large part of the southern and central Plains states into parts of the Midwestern US. Severe storms look most possible Thursday afternoon into Thursday night across central and eastern Oklahoma, eastern Kansas, western Missouri and southern Iowa. Damaging winds, hail and a few tornadoes will all be a threat with the severe weather.

For Friday – Another round of severe thunderstorms are possible across northeast Texas, northern Louisiana, much of Arkansas and southern Missouri. Damaging winds, hail and perhaps a few tornadoes will again be a threat.

Turning To Next Weekend – Severe weather will continue to be a threat across an area from the southern Plains states east-southeastward through the northern Gulf coast. Across these areas, it is expected that a persistent upper level trough over the western US will produce a warm, humid and unstable air mass throughout next weekend.

Summary: Widespread significant severe weather is expected across a large area from the southern Plains states into the middle and upper Mississippi Valley during Friday afternoon and Friday night. Tornadoes, some strong, very large hail and damaging winds will all be a threat.

For Southern & Eastern Iowa, Western Illinois & Southern Wisconsin: Strong tornadoes are going to be a threat Friday afternoon into Friday evening across southern and eastern Iowa, southern Wisconsin and western Illinois. The atmosphere across this area is expected to be very unstable. This will combine with strong amounts of low-level wind shear due to the proximity of a surface low pressure system and a warm front.

Scattered supercell severe thunderstorms are expected to develop after about 2 pm CDT Friday afternoon across southern and eastern Iowa, southern Wisconsin and western Illinois. This is the area that’s most likely to see strong tornadoes during the mid and late afternoon hours of Friday.

These supercell storms will eventually consolidate into a squall line by Friday evening as the storms push towards Lake Michigan. This means that damaging winds from the squall line will be a threat across much of northern Illinois, eastern Wisconsin and northwestern Indiana during Friday night.

For Northern Oklahoma, Southern & Eastern Kansas & Central & Northern Missouri: Another area to watch closely Friday afternoon into Friday evening will be across northern Oklahoma, southern and eastern Kansas and central and northern Missouri. The atmosphere across the entire area is expected to be very favorable for the production of very large hail, damaging winds and tornadoes.

Supercell severe thunderstorms look to initially develop across this entire area by mid-afternoon Friday and these storms will be capable of producing very large hail and tornadoes.

Eventually these storms will evolve into a squall line that is capable of producing very damaging winds of up to 80 mph and large hail across northern Oklahoma, eastern Kansas and central and eastern Missouri during Friday evening.

Summary: Widespread severe thunderstorms are expected from the southern Plains states to the middle and upper Mississippi Valley during Friday afternoon and Friday night. This includes northern Oklahoma, eastern Kansas, western, central and northern Missouri, central and southern Iowa. Damaging winds, very large hail and tornadoes, some strong, will all be a threat.

Details: A strong upper level trough of low pressure is expected to move from the central Rockies into the upper Midwestern United States and the central Plains states during Friday. At the same time this is happening, a cold front will push eastward from the Plains states into the Midwest.

A warm and humid air mass will be found to the east of this cold front leading to a moderately to very unstable air mass from the Midwest to the southern Plains by Friday afternoon and Friday night.

It appears that a squall line will evolve from northeastern Kansas through northwestern Missouri into southern and central Iowa during Friday afternoon and Friday evening. While damaging winds will be the main threat from this squall line, tornadoes will also be a threat as well as they push into northern and central Missouri, southern and eastern Iowa.

Further south, supercell severe thunderstorms will be a threat during Friday afternoon and Friday evening across southern and southeastern Kansas and northern Oklahoma. Any supercells that do develop will pose a threat for very large hail, strong tornadoes and damaging winds.

Summary: A large area of severe weather, some of it significant, is expected from the southern and central Plains states northeastward into the Midwestern United States and the southern Great Lakes. Very large hail, tornadoes, some strong and damaging winds are all expected, especially from central and eastern Iowas through northern Illinois, southern Wisconsin and southern Lower Michigan.

For The Midwest & The Southern Great Lakes: It appears likely that multiple supercell severe thunderstorms will form by mid to late afternoon across central and eastern Iowa, southern Wisconsin and northern Illinois. The air mass is expected to be very favorable for very large hail and damaging winds.

Additionally, the supercells that do form across central and eastern Iowa, southern Wisconsin and northern Illinois will be capable of producing tornadoes, some of which will be strong. The area across southern Wisconsin and northern Illinois, including Madison, Milwaukee and Chicago, is an area that’s particularly concerning in terms of strong tornadoes.

These storms are then expected to evolve into a cluster of severe storms that produces damaging winds this evening that pushes across southern Lower Michigan.

Southern & Central Plains States: It appears that supercell severe thunderstorms will develop across western and central Oklahoma northeastward into south-central and southeast Kansas by mid to late afternoon. The environment is expected to be very favorable for extremely large hail of up to 3 to 4 inches in diameter.

Additionally, a strengthening low-level jet stream by early this evening will support the threat for a few tornadoes across central Oklahoma into south-central and southeastern Kansas.

A Significant Severe Weather Outbreak Is Quite Possible Friday Afternoon & Friday Evening From The Southern Plains Into The Midwestern United States: A strong upper level trough of low pressure is expected to push eastward into the Plains states during Friday and Friday night. At the surface, an area of low pressure is expected to strengthen as it moves into western Oklahoma with a second low pressure system located near the middle Missouri Valley.

Ahead of all of the weather features, a warm and humid air mass will be in place from the southern and central Plains states northeastward into the Midwest. Supercell severe thunderstorms capable of producing very large hail, strong tornadoes and damaging winds are expected across much of central and northern Oklahoma, southern and eastern Kansas, western and northern Missouri and southern and eastern Iowa during late Friday afternoon and Friday evening.

These storms should push eastward reaching the Mississippi River from eastern Missouri into western Illinois and western and southern Wisconsin during the overnight hours of Friday night. Damaging winds and a few tornadoes will be a threat.