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All is quiet across the Atlantic, Caribbean and Gulf with no areas of interest today. Indications seem to point towards a very quiet weekend across the tropics with no tropical development expected. In fact, no tropical development is highly likely through next week across the Gulf, the Caribbean and the tropical Atlantic.

One area that might need to be watched for possible tropical development late next week is across the central North Atlantic well east of Bermuda where model guidance such as the Google Deep Mind and European AIFS models are showing possible development. Right now, these model guidance members are forecasting the chances for development at about 20 to 30 percent or so late next week in the area of the North Atlantic that’s well to the east of Bermuda. If we do see something form in this area of the Atlantic then it would be of no threat to any land areas.

Looking way ahead in time, it’s possible that we might have to watch the Gulf for the possibility of tropical development between about September 25 and October 5. The very long range European model guidance is forecasting a weather pattern that might promote tropical mischief in the Gulf during this time period. It is also showing upwards of a 10-20 percent chance of tropical development during this time period. Not very high in terms of development chances, but it is showing this might be an area to watch. It should also be noted that the CFS model is also showing a weather pattern that could promote tropical mischief in the Gulf during the same time period as the European model. For now, I certainly wouldn’t worry or stress about this, but instead keep an eye on things, just in case.

Finally, I know some of you have seen the longer range GFS model & it’s forecasts of a big hurricane in the Gulf in about 10-14 days from now. These GFS model forecasts have translated into click-bait posts on social media. I’m here to inform you to ignore both the GFS model’s big hurricane forecasts & those click-bait social media posts. The GFS model is notorious for spitting out “phantom” storms. It does the same thing every single year in showing big hurricanes that never come to pass. What should you do instead, keep up-to-date with me & my email posts. Also, if other models such as the European model or even the Google Deep Mind model start showing something similar, then we might have to start looking at it closely. Until then, ignore all big hurricane forecasts from the GFS model & also ignore the social media hype posts.

All is quiet across the Atlantic, Caribbean and Gulf with no areas of interest today. Indications seem to point towards a very quiet week across the tropics with no tropical development expected. In fact, no tropical development is highly likely through this weekend & possibly into much of next week across the Atlantic, Caribbean and Gulf.

An analysis of the environmental conditions across the Atlantic Basin reveals why things remain so very quiet. A very dry and stable airmass exists across the Caribbean, as well as across the tropical Atlantic. This has led to any westward tropical waves to dry up before they even get a chance to start getting going.

Looking towards the Gulf and the southwestern North Atlantic, the wind shear values are low enough to support development in this region. Even with this being a thing, there are no areas of disturbed weather that will be taking advantage of these favorable conditions for at least the next several days, if not longer.

Given everything that I’ve looked at, it appears very likely that we will not see any sort of tropical development across the Atlantic Basin for at least the next week or so. Looking a bit further out, some of the model guidance are hinting at the possibility of some eastern Tropical Atlantic development towards late next week. Even if we do see tropical development out over the eastern Tropical Atlantic, the wall of very strong wind shear out over the central Tropical Atlantic will squash any development before it reaches the Lesser Antilles.

Closer to home, none of the model guidance seems to show development over the Gulf or the western Atlantic through the middle part of this month. Even with this, I’ll still keep a look out, just in case we see any unforeseen in-close tropical development. For now though, there’s zero indication that we will see in-close tropical development for at least the next week.

Looking even further out in time, it’s possible that we could see some tropical mischief in the Gulf towards the end of this month. Model guidance seems to be hinting that the Gulf may try to spit out a tropical system near the end of this month. The European ensemble guidance are showing up to a 20 percent chance of tropical development in the Gulf right near the end of this month. This is a long ways out there in time, but it may be something to keep in mind for the end of this month for those with interests in the Gulf.

All is quiet across the Atlantic, Caribbean and Gulf with no areas of interest today. It appears that there will be no tropical development throughout this weekend across the Atlantic Basin & in fact, no tropical development is likely right through next week.

A look at the longer range model guidance reveals that none of them are showing any sort of significant tropical development through mid-month.

Since things are so quiet, my wife, Meg, wanted me to send out a write up that addresses the extreme hype surrounding the very strong El Nino conditions without any context or explanation. Instead, I want to give you a non-hype and down to earth explanation of what to expect this winter.

What Is El Nino? El Nino is a global phenomenon that’s centered in the central and eastern Pacific when the ocean water temperatures become much warmer than average. This phenomenon oftentimes leads to a large disruption to the weather patterns across the globe.

The El Nino that we are currently having is one of, if not the strongest, on record. El Nino conditions usually peak in the late fall and winter months. I want to point out that the previous strongest El Ninos on record were in 1997 and 1982 & I do think that we will surpass both of those El Nino in terms of the amount of heat that’ll be present in the eastern and central Pacific.

Unlike what you may have seen on social media, this El Nino is not going to lead to the destruction of the United States or be the catalyst for the end of the world. It is going to be a very strong El Nino, that will have some large impacts on the weather this winter across the United States.

What About This Upcoming Winter? El Nino winters, especially those winters with strong El Nino conditions, can be particularly harsh for areas across the southern United States and the Florida Peninsula. This is due to the development of a particularly strong sub-tropical jet stream that often leads to a very active storm track that is centered over the southern United States.

Florida Peninsula: An active southern storm track this winter is likely to lead to frequent bouts of significant severe weather, heavy rain and flooding across the Florida Peninsula.

I am pretty concerned that January and February could be particularly stormy across the Florida Peninsula, in terms of both heavy rain & significant severe weather. Some past El Nino winters have produced some significant tornado events across parts of the Peninsula & this is something that’ll need to be watched very closely.

Bottom line is that El Nino winters are wet, cool and very stormy across the Florida Peninsula. This means that this winter may be anything but sunny across the Sunshine State.

Southern & Southeastern United States: Across the southern and southeastern United States, El Nino winters are very often stormy with a pattern that promotes not only heavy rainfall & the threat for flooding, but also some winter weather. This means that ice and snow risks could be a concern this winter at times across the Carolinas, as well as across the Tennessee Valley. It’s actually possible that there could be a winter weather threat as far south as the northern Gulf coast at some point in January or February.

Further west, above average rainfall and below average temperatures likely will extend westward to about the Texas Gulf coast, while a large majority of the rest of Texas should be closer to average for rainfall this winter.

One thing that many El Nino winters bring is the threat for winter weather across the Texas Panhandle into parts of far north Texas & I do think that we could see some winter weather threats during January and February across the Texas Panhandle and across far north Texas.

Mid-Atlantic States & The Northeastern US: I do think that this could be winter where precipitation amounts are above to possibly well-above average across much of the Mid-Atlantic and northeastern United States. I do want to emphasize that this does not necessarily mean that it’s going to be a snowy winter across this region. In fact, the further north one goes in New England, the less snowy as compared to average it could be.

All-in-all, I think this winter will be above average in terms of temperatures across the northeastern US & across the Mid-Atlantic States. In addition, an active storm track is expected to curve up the East Coast & likely will lead to quite a bit in the way of storminess.

The big bug-a-boo in the forecast for this winter is how much of this storminess will be in the form of snow. Seasonal snow forecasts are always extremely uncertain & these types of forecasts should always be taken with a pound of salt. The reason why is because typically it only takes one or two storms in a winter to make or break a winter in terms of snow.

Given that we are probably going to see a winter where the temperatures will be above average, it’s going to take a “perfect” storm setup to create above average snow amounts for both the Mid-Atlantic States and the Northeastern United States. Because of this, I’m leaning more towards widespread below average snow amounts this winter across both the Mid-Atlantic States and across the northeastern United States.

What I’m more concerned with this winter is the possibility of one or two significant ice storms across New England and New York State. Many past El Nino winters have produced some very notable and destructive ice storms across this region & this is something that’ll need to be watched during the months of January and February.

All-in-all, while this very strong El Nino WILL NOT bring upon a disaster of biblical proportions (wait for the Ghostbusters quote), “Fire & brimstone from the skies, rivers and seas boiling, forty years of darkness, earthquakes and volcanoes, the dead rising from the grave, human sacrifice, dogs and cats living together—MASS HYSTERIA!”, it will help to produce a winter that’s anything but quiet across the southern United States, the Florida Peninsula & across the eastern United States.

Edouard made landfall yesterday afternoon (Tuesday) at around 2:20 pm CDT as a 60 mph tropical storm right along the Texas-Louisiana border. Even though Edouard was a 60 mph tropical storm, it did produce some feisty wind gusts right across Sabine Pass with 60-70 mph wind gusts common. In fact, a 90 mph wind gust was recorded in Port Arthur when Edouard made landfall yesterday afternoon.

Edouard is now inland over east Texas with its center now located to the northwest of Lufkin. Heavy rain with significant amounts of flooding is currently occurring across east Texas with widespread rain totals of 4 to 8 inches already occurring from the upper Texas coast east of Houston northward into east Texas. Upwards of 20 inches of rain may have occurred already along a narrow area from parts of central Hardin County into south-central Tyler County.

Additional heavy rain with even more significant flooding is expected from this afternoon through tonight and into Thursday across the Big Thicket and Piney Woods regions of southeast Texas. Heavy rain is also expected across much of east-central Texas to the southeast of Dallas-Fort Worth from this afternoon through tonight and into Thursday. Additional rain totals of 4 to 8 inches can be expected across east-central Texas.

It should be noted that the high-resolution model guidance are forecasting that intense thunderstorm cells will train over the same locations this afternoon and tonight across much of east-central Texas in the area between I-10 east of Houston & just north of Beaumont and almost to I-20 just southeast of Tyler. Significant flooding is extremely likely across this corridor of east-central Texas.

Finally, even though Edouard has weakened into a tropical depression, it has still maintained a well-defined circulation over east Texas. What’s left of this circulation is likely to gradually wind down by the time we get into Thursday as it moves into northeast Texas and southeast Oklahoma.

Elsewhere: The rest of the Atlantic, Caribbean and Gulf are very quiet, especially where we are now into what’s traditionally known as the peak of the hurricane season. All-in-all, it appears that no tropical development will occur across the Atlantic and Caribbean throughout the rest of this week through this weekend & probably into next week.

One area that I did want to mention is the very slight possibility that we could see tropical mischief over the far northern Gulf this weekend or early next week. Weather analysis reveals that there is a surface trough of low pressure that’s located over the northern Bahamas right now. This surface trough of low pressure is producing some deep convection in the area from the northern Bahamas to just northeast of the northern Bahamas.

It is expected that this trough of low pressure will head westward over the next couple of days & is likely to push into the northern Gulf during this weekend. The environmental conditions across the northern Gulf are expected to be marginally favorable for development & because of this, we might have to watch this system for possible tropical mischief throughout this upcoming Labor Day weekend.

A look at the latest model guidance reveals that they really don’t show much in the way of tropical development during this weekend into early next week. The reason for this seems to have to do with the possibility of this low pressure trough staying on land as it heads westward across the northern Gulf coast. The exception to this is the UKMET model which has hinted at development occurring very near the coasts of Alabama, Mississippi and southeast Louisiana as early as Friday or Saturday. Also, the European ensemble model guidance is showing up to 30 percent chance for tropical development from the eastern to the northern Gulf between Friday and Sunday.

At this point, while this trough of low pressure is certainly something to keep an eye on for possible tropical mischief between Friday and Monday over the northern Gulf, I think that the chances for significant development are very low.

What this trough of low pressure will more likely do is increase the thunderstorm chances across the Florida Peninsula during Thursday and Friday and then increase the thunderstorm chances along much of the northern Gulf coast throughout this upcoming weekend.

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Satellite imagery and weather data reveals that a strong tropical wave has just pushed off of the west coast of Africa. This tropical wave is producing a smattering of shower and thunderstorm activity & it appears that a low pressure system is attached to the wave. This is the wave that will need to be watched closely for the potential of tropical development throughout this week through probably this weekend into next week. It does appear that we will be tracking this tropical wave for many days to come.

Analysis of the environmental conditions around this tropical wave reveals that while the wind shear values are favorable for development, it appears that there is some dry air located to the north and west of the wave. This says to me that the conditions are favorable enough to support some development over the next few days. By the very end of this week and this weekend, it appears that this wave may run into some strong amounts of wind shear once it crosses the 45 West Longitude line. When this happens, then we’ll probably see the end of this wave developing any further, for now.

A look at the various model guidance reveals that some guidance such as the GFS model and the European model being fairly aggressive with their forecasts of development during this week as this wave tracks westward across the eastern and central Tropical Atlantic. Other model guidance such as the Google Deep Mind ensemble guidance and the European AIFS ensemble guidance seems to show some development over the next couple of days before those development chances drop dramatically by this weekend as the wave reaches that more unfavorable environment. It should be noted though that these two ensemble AI models then show an increase in development chances next week when this system reaches the southwestern North Atlantic in an area near or to the east of the Bahamas. This increase in the development chances next week in the southwestern North Atlantic is due to the potential for this wave to find itself in a much more favorable environment for development.

My Thinking Is That I’m not really anticipating to see a whole lot of development from this tropical wave throughout this week as it heads westward across the eastern and central Tropical Atlantic. While some development is a possibility over the next 3-4 days due to the relatively favorable environmental conditions, those chances for development are likely to drop to near zero by the very end of this week and this weekend. This is because the tropical wave will run into some strong wind shear once it reaches about 45 West Longitude.

If this tropical wave survives the strong wind shear environment in the tropical Atlantic during this weekend into early next week, then it could find itself in a more favorable environment for not only development, but also for strengthening over the southwestern North Atlantic during the middle and later parts of next week. This will be something to keep an eye on, especially once we approach next week.

For now though, this tropical wave is nothing to be concerned or worried about. More than likely, this wave will pass far enough north of the Lesser Antilles and the eastern Caribbean to not be a concern early next week. Also, we are more than a week away from this wave possibly reaching the southwestern North Atlantic where it might find itself in a more favorable environment for development. Because of this, there is more than enough time to keep track of this wave.