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There remains the possibility of tropical development sometime during this weekend or early next week over the eastern and northeastern Gulf. That being said, as of right now, the chances for tropical development are very low.

A frontal boundary is expected to push southward into the eastern Gulf by this weekend. There then is the possibility that a low pressure system could form near the tail end of this front over the eastern or northeastern Gulf during the weekend. Should this occur, it could lead to the development of a tropical system that forms this weekend into early next week somewhere over the eastern or northeastern Gulf.

A look at the model guidance reveals that the European AIFS and its ensemble members remain the most aggressive with showing tropical development. It should be pointed out that the European AIFS model has been over forecasting tropical development lately and this is something that should be considered when trying to determine whether tropical development might occur.

As for the other model guidance, the most recent run of the GFS model shows no development at all. The Canadian model, interestingly, shows the possible development occurring near the coast of the Carolinas during the first half of next week. Last night’s run of the European model does hint at development occurring over the northeastern Gulf by early next week. The newest run of the ICON model now also shows tropical development occurring in the northeastern Gulf this weekend with the system heading for the Florida Panhandle during early next week.

Here Are My Thoughts: I definitely think that tropical development in the eastern and northeastern Gulf is a possibility this weekend or early next week. As of right now, I think the chances of tropical development are around 20 to 30 percent or so.

The setup for tropical development in the eastern and northeastern Gulf this weekend or early next week is one that’s kind of classic. This setup is expected to include a low pressure system forming near the tail end of an old front. This low pressure system would also form under an upper-level high pressure system located to the north & overall the environmental conditions look at least marginal for development. That being said, there are a couple of negative environmental conditions that could put a stop to any sort of development. This includes some northerly wind shear and dry continental air that could affect whatever tries to form.

Again, my thinking is that the chances for tropical development are very low this weekend into early next week across the eastern and northeastern Gulf. That being said, it is something that I’ll be keeping a close eye on throughout this week.

I wanted to send out a quick and short update (a full tropical weather discussion will be sent out Monday afternoon) on the possibility of tropical development next weekend in the eastern and northeastern Gulf.

A frontal boundary is expected to drop southward into the northeastern Gulf towards Friday and Saturday. As it does so, it is possible that a piece of energy may split off near the tail end of this front leading to low pressure to develop over the eastern and northeastern Gulf during next weekend. Should this occur, then we could very well see the development of a tropical system in the eastern and northeastern Gulf next weekend.

Model guidance such as the European ensemble guidance, the European AIFS model and the European AIFS ensemble guidance are certainly waking up to the tropical development possibility. In fact, the European AIFS model has been showing this development potential in the northeastern Gulf for next weekend for a couple of days now. Other model guidance such as the GFS model and the Canadian model show no development at all next weekend. As for the Google Deep Mind ensemble model, it only shows a handful of members forecasting development & overall isn’t that enthused in showing development.

My thinking is that I do believe the idea of tropical development in the eastern and northeastern Gulf is certainly possible & I put the chances of it occurring at 20-30 percent right now. The setup next weekend is kind of a classic setup to see a tropical system form. This setup includes a low pressure system forming at the tail end of an old front. This low pressure system would also form under an upper-level high pressure system located to the north & overall the environmental conditions look at least marginal for development. Overall, this is a pretty common way to get tropical development this time of year & I certainly think it is something to keep a close eye on.

I will send out a full discussion which will include the latest on this possible development for next weekend sometime Monday Afternoon.

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Today’s tropical weather update is going to be quite short as nothing at all is going on across the Atlantic, Caribbean and the Gulf.

No tropical development is expected this weekend through at least all of next week. In fact, we probably will not see any sort of tropical development through mid-July.

It should also be noted that none of the latest model guidance show any sort of tropical development chances through mid-July across the Atlantic Basin.

A glance at the much longer range model guidance reveals that they show no chances of tropical development through the entire month of July across the Atlantic, Caribbean and the Gulf.

Bottom Line Is That I think the next 7 to 10 days or so will be tropical development free. Beyond that, who knows as development along old fronts can happen & those are not handled as well by the models & is something to always keep an eye on, just in case.

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Satellite imagery and weather analysis today revealed that an area of convection has formed just offshore of the South Carolina and Georgia coastline. This convection has formed near the tail end of a frontal boundary & it appears that a low pressure system has formed from this convection.

A look at the environmental conditions around this low pressure system reveals that while the wind shear values are favorable for development, there is quite a bit of dry air surrounding this disturbance. This can easily be seen in water vapor imagery. This dry air is likely to limit any sort of tropical development from occurring & I certainly think that we will not see any sort of tropical development from this low pressure system.

The Google Deep Mind ensemble guidance, which was the most “enthused” model in showing development last week, now has all but dropped the forecast of development of this low pressure system. In fact, the latest model run from the Google Deep Mind model now has less than a 5 percent chance of development of this disturbance.

It is expected that this low pressure system will get trapped underneath a large upper-level high pressure system that’s centered over the Ohio Valley. This is the same upper-level high pressure system that will be producing dangerous heat and humidity across much of the central and eastern United States throughout this week.

The upper-level high pressure system is expected to steer the low pressure system and its associated area of disturbed weather westward back towards the coast of southeast Georgia or the South Carolina coast by late this week.

Again, I am not expecting to see any sort of development from this low pressure system & the flood threat from this system late this week across the southeastern US is extremely low due to the likelihood of dry, sinking air that’ll be present across much of the eastern United States this week. That said, this disturbance may still produce some increase in the afternoon thunderstorm activity from the Georgia coastline westward to across the Florida Peninsula and into the northern Gulf coast late this week into this weekend.

Elsewhere across the Atlantic, Caribbean and the Gulf – All is quiet and no tropical development is expected throughout this week through the weekend.

Given that it looks pretty notable on satellite imagery, I did want to mention the area of convection now located just north of the Leeward Islands near 22 North Latitude, 62 West Longitude. This convection is associated with a surface trough of low pressure. While it looks impressive on satellite imagery, tropical development of this system is not expected due to strong amounts of wind shear & an abundance of dry air that surrounds this convection. It is expected that this convection will be picked up by that old front offshore of the southeast coast of the US in a day or two & be swept out into the open Atlantic.

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All will be quiet across the Atlantic, Caribbean and the Gulf this weekend with no tropical development expected.

As we get into next week, there remains a very low chance that we could see a tropical system try to develop near the US Southeast coast between the Carolinas and northeast Florida & then be pushed southwestward and westward into the eastern Gulf. That said, more than likely nothing at all will develop & all will stay quiet.

Some of the model guidance & in particular, the Google Deep Mind model is showing about a 20 percent chance or so of tropical development in the area from the Southeast coast to the eastern Gulf. In addition, the European ensemble seems to show about a 10-20 percent chance for tropical development during the first half of next week near the Carolina coastline. Other model guidance such as the Canadian model and the GFS model, however, show no development at all. As I already said, I think more than likely nothing will develop next week. That said, it is still something to keep an eye on, just in case.

What may cause this possible development? It appears that we will have a decaying frontal boundary draped over the southwestern North Atlantic just off of the Southeast US coast. Some of the model guidance are hinting that a large cluster of thunderstorms will dive off of the South Carolina coastline early next week and then try to root itself on the tail end of that decaying front. If this occurs, then this process could promote a low pressure system to form leading to the possibility of development as it heads southwestward and westward towards the Florida Peninsula and then the eastern Gulf.

Even though I think that the chances for tropical development are very low (around 10 percent), the environmental conditions look favorable to promote development. This includes the expectation of low wind shear values and very warm ocean waters to the east of Florida. Because of this, the idea of possible tropical development is something to keep an eye on for next week.

Whether we see tropical development or not next week, one thing that is very highly likely is a surge of tropical moisture will push westward into the Bahamas, through much of the Florida Peninsula and into the northern and eastern Gulf. What this means is that daily pop-up thunderstorms will move from east to west & affect the Bahamas, much of the Florida Peninsula and along the northern Gulf coast during next week. It also means that these daily thunderstorms will likely reach the drought riddled areas along the I-75 corridor and the west coast of Florida, including areas from Tampa to Fort Myers.

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The rest of this week through this weekend is expected to be quiet across the Atlantic, Caribbean and the Gulf with no tropical development expected.

As we get into next week, there is a very low chance that we could see a tropical system try to develop near the US Southeast coast & then be pushed westward into the eastern Gulf. That said, more than likely nothing at all will develop & all will stay quiet.

Some of the model guidance such as the GFS model and Google’s Deep Mind model is showing a piece of mid-level energy to push off of the southeast coast of the United States by early next week. This energy then gets left behind as a frontal system decays towards the middle part of next week. Once this occurs, it is anticipated that an upper level high pressure system over the eastern United States will help to push this piece of energy westward across the Florida Peninsula and into the eastern Gulf during the second half of next week within an environment that’s somewhat favorable for development.

It should be noted that the model guidance only show a slight chance of tropical development occurring with the European ensemble guidance only forecasting a 10-20 percent chance for tropical development.

For now, I think that the chances for tropical development near the US Southeast Coast and in the eastern Gulf are very low (probably near 10 percent). That being said, it will be something that I’ll be keeping an eye on, just in case.

FINALLY – I wanted to give everyone a heads-up that I will be running a Fourth Of July Lifetime Subscription Special that’ll begin on Saturday & run through July 4th. This lifetime subscription special will feature a price that is $250 off the regular price of a lifetime subscription. So, instead of paying $600, you can pay $350 for a lifetime subscription & never have to worry about renewing again.

Let your friends, family, coworkers, neighbors or anyone you know about Crown Weather & perhaps they will want to get in on this great deal too. If you’d like to take advantage of this lifetime subscription special now, let me know by emailing me.

All is now quiet across the Atlantic, Caribbean and the Gulf & no tropical development is expected throughout this week. In fact, tropical development looks unlikely right through next week, if not longer.

The Atlantic Basin is being heavily impacted by a large amount of Saharan dust. This, in combination with strengthening El Nino conditions will keep the Atlantic Basin shut down for at least the next couple of weeks, if not longer. Large Saharan dust outbreaks like this are common this time of year & usually peaks during late June and early July before the amount of dust begins to wane towards August.

Another factor that will prevent tropical development for the next 1 to 2 weeks will be strong amounts of wind shear that’ll be present across much of the Atlantic, Caribbean and the Gulf.

Bottom Line Is That the Atlantic, Caribbean and the Gulf should be very quiet in terms of tropical development chances through the end of this month, at least. In fact, the longer range ensemble guidance seems to be pointing towards things remaining quiet through at least mid-July.