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The severe weather threat is expected to increase across areas from the central and southern Plains on Thursday to the Ozarks and the middle and lower Mississippi Valley on Friday.

On Thursday – A strong low pressure system is expected to be located over the northern Plains states. Out ahead of this low pressure system, a strong southerly wind flow will pull warm and humid Gulf air northward into the Plains states.

A large area of thunderstorms along and east of a frontal boundary and these storms will affect a large part of the southern and central Plains states into parts of the Midwestern US. Severe storms look most possible Thursday afternoon into Thursday night across central and eastern Oklahoma, eastern Kansas, western Missouri and southern Iowa. Damaging winds, hail and a few tornadoes will all be a threat with the severe weather.

For Friday – Another round of severe thunderstorms are possible across northeast Texas, northern Louisiana, much of Arkansas and southern Missouri. Damaging winds, hail and perhaps a few tornadoes will again be a threat.

Turning To Next Weekend – Severe weather will continue to be a threat across an area from the southern Plains states east-southeastward through the northern Gulf coast. Across these areas, it is expected that a persistent upper level trough over the western US will produce a warm, humid and unstable air mass throughout next weekend.

Summary: Widespread significant severe weather is expected across a large area from the southern Plains states into the middle and upper Mississippi Valley during Friday afternoon and Friday night. Tornadoes, some strong, very large hail and damaging winds will all be a threat.

For Southern & Eastern Iowa, Western Illinois & Southern Wisconsin: Strong tornadoes are going to be a threat Friday afternoon into Friday evening across southern and eastern Iowa, southern Wisconsin and western Illinois. The atmosphere across this area is expected to be very unstable. This will combine with strong amounts of low-level wind shear due to the proximity of a surface low pressure system and a warm front.

Scattered supercell severe thunderstorms are expected to develop after about 2 pm CDT Friday afternoon across southern and eastern Iowa, southern Wisconsin and western Illinois. This is the area that’s most likely to see strong tornadoes during the mid and late afternoon hours of Friday.

These supercell storms will eventually consolidate into a squall line by Friday evening as the storms push towards Lake Michigan. This means that damaging winds from the squall line will be a threat across much of northern Illinois, eastern Wisconsin and northwestern Indiana during Friday night.

For Northern Oklahoma, Southern & Eastern Kansas & Central & Northern Missouri: Another area to watch closely Friday afternoon into Friday evening will be across northern Oklahoma, southern and eastern Kansas and central and northern Missouri. The atmosphere across the entire area is expected to be very favorable for the production of very large hail, damaging winds and tornadoes.

Supercell severe thunderstorms look to initially develop across this entire area by mid-afternoon Friday and these storms will be capable of producing very large hail and tornadoes.

Eventually these storms will evolve into a squall line that is capable of producing very damaging winds of up to 80 mph and large hail across northern Oklahoma, eastern Kansas and central and eastern Missouri during Friday evening.

Summary: Widespread severe thunderstorms are expected from the southern Plains states to the middle and upper Mississippi Valley during Friday afternoon and Friday night. This includes northern Oklahoma, eastern Kansas, western, central and northern Missouri, central and southern Iowa. Damaging winds, very large hail and tornadoes, some strong, will all be a threat.

Details: A strong upper level trough of low pressure is expected to move from the central Rockies into the upper Midwestern United States and the central Plains states during Friday. At the same time this is happening, a cold front will push eastward from the Plains states into the Midwest.

A warm and humid air mass will be found to the east of this cold front leading to a moderately to very unstable air mass from the Midwest to the southern Plains by Friday afternoon and Friday night.

It appears that a squall line will evolve from northeastern Kansas through northwestern Missouri into southern and central Iowa during Friday afternoon and Friday evening. While damaging winds will be the main threat from this squall line, tornadoes will also be a threat as well as they push into northern and central Missouri, southern and eastern Iowa.

Further south, supercell severe thunderstorms will be a threat during Friday afternoon and Friday evening across southern and southeastern Kansas and northern Oklahoma. Any supercells that do develop will pose a threat for very large hail, strong tornadoes and damaging winds.

Summary: A large area of severe weather, some of it significant, is expected from the southern and central Plains states northeastward into the Midwestern United States and the southern Great Lakes. Very large hail, tornadoes, some strong and damaging winds are all expected, especially from central and eastern Iowas through northern Illinois, southern Wisconsin and southern Lower Michigan.

For The Midwest & The Southern Great Lakes: It appears likely that multiple supercell severe thunderstorms will form by mid to late afternoon across central and eastern Iowa, southern Wisconsin and northern Illinois. The air mass is expected to be very favorable for very large hail and damaging winds.

Additionally, the supercells that do form across central and eastern Iowa, southern Wisconsin and northern Illinois will be capable of producing tornadoes, some of which will be strong. The area across southern Wisconsin and northern Illinois, including Madison, Milwaukee and Chicago, is an area that’s particularly concerning in terms of strong tornadoes.

These storms are then expected to evolve into a cluster of severe storms that produces damaging winds this evening that pushes across southern Lower Michigan.

Southern & Central Plains States: It appears that supercell severe thunderstorms will develop across western and central Oklahoma northeastward into south-central and southeast Kansas by mid to late afternoon. The environment is expected to be very favorable for extremely large hail of up to 3 to 4 inches in diameter.

Additionally, a strengthening low-level jet stream by early this evening will support the threat for a few tornadoes across central Oklahoma into south-central and southeastern Kansas.

A Significant Severe Weather Outbreak Is Quite Possible Friday Afternoon & Friday Evening From The Southern Plains Into The Midwestern United States: A strong upper level trough of low pressure is expected to push eastward into the Plains states during Friday and Friday night. At the surface, an area of low pressure is expected to strengthen as it moves into western Oklahoma with a second low pressure system located near the middle Missouri Valley.

Ahead of all of the weather features, a warm and humid air mass will be in place from the southern and central Plains states northeastward into the Midwest. Supercell severe thunderstorms capable of producing very large hail, strong tornadoes and damaging winds are expected across much of central and northern Oklahoma, southern and eastern Kansas, western and northern Missouri and southern and eastern Iowa during late Friday afternoon and Friday evening.

These storms should push eastward reaching the Mississippi River from eastern Missouri into western Illinois and western and southern Wisconsin during the overnight hours of Friday night. Damaging winds and a few tornadoes will be a threat.

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A cold front is expected to push southward across the southeastern United States during this weekend & then push southward across the Florida Peninsula by the very early part of next week.

At the same time this is occurring, it is possible that a wave of low pressure may form over the eastern Gulf during Monday and Tuesday. This non-tropical low pressure system is then expected to push east-northeastward into the northern Bahamas during the middle part of next week before heading out into the open Atlantic later next week.

The combination of the wave of low pressure and an east-northeasterly wind flow will lead to several days of rain across much of the Florida Peninsula.

Rain looks to begin to affect much of the Florida Peninsula on Monday and Tuesday & then continue through Wednesday before it ends on Thursday.

Rainfall totals during next week looks to average between 1 and 3 inches across much of the Florida Peninsula & especially along Florida’s East Coast. This rainfall will definitely help the drought conditions that are occurring across Florida.

In addition to the rain, there will be some gusty east-northeasterly winds across much of the Florida Peninsula next week from Tuesday until Thursday. Wind gusts of up to 35 mph can be expected, especially along Florida’s East Coast.

Bottom line is that we could see the first large scale area wide rainfall across the Florida Peninsula in quite some time during next week.

While significant severe weather is not expected this week, it seems probable that, at least, some severe weather will occur across the Mississippi Valley, the Great Lakes & the central and southern Plains states.

Some Severe Weather Is Expected Across The Middle & Upper Mississippi Valley Tonight: A few severe thunderstorms are expected to first develop across central Iowa between about 5 and 7 pm CDT. These storms are expected to push east-northeastward during tonight into eastern Iowa, northern Illinois and southern Wisconsin.

Any severe storms tonight may have the potential to produce large hail and some very gusty winds.

During Tuesday – Some Severe Weather Is Expected Across The Great Lakes: Scattered strong to severe storms are expected during the day on Tuesday across the Great Lakes, including northern Indiana, southern Lower Michigan, northern Ohio, northwestern Pennsylvania and western New York State.

The main threat with any severe storms look to be damaging wind gusts and hail. That said, if there are any individual supercells that might be able to develop, it could lead to a tornado threat, mainly during late Tuesday afternoon and Tuesday evening.

Wednesday Afternoon & Wednesday Evening – Some Severe Weather Is Possible Across The Central & Southern Plains States: Some severe weather is a possibility across the central and southern Plains from about central and eastern Kansas southward through central and eastern Oklahoma into northern Texas.

Strong to severe thunderstorms may develop by late Wednesday afternoon across north Texas and central Oklahoma. These storms will push northeastward during Wednesday evening into eastern Kansas and eastern Oklahoma.

The main threat with any severe storms late Wednesday afternoon and Wednesday evening looks to be damaging wind gusts.

Thursday – Ohio Valley: It appears that some severe weather is a possibility Thursday afternoon into Thursday night across the Ohio Valley as a cold front pushes eastward into the area. Any severe storms may have the potential to produce some very gusty winds.

Friday – The Central & Southern Plains States: An area of low pressure is expected to form over far eastern Colorado and western Kansas during the day on Friday. To the east of this low pressure system, a surge of humid air will push northward across the southern and central Plains states.

Strong to severe thunderstorms may form across northern Oklahoma and central and eastern Kansas during Friday afternoon. This will be something to closely watch as there are strong signals in the data that suggest some substantial severe weather may occur Friday afternoon across northern Oklahoma and eastern Kansas with tornadoes, very large hail and damaging winds a possibility.

Saturday – The Ohio Valley: An area of low pressure is expected to strengthen as it pushes into the Great Lakes region during Saturday. This will lead to plenty of moisture pushing northward into the Ohio Valley by Saturday afternoon.

Thunderstorms, some strong to severe, may affect much of the Ohio Valley with damaging winds the main threat.

FINALLY – I am writing to see if you may be able to help us out & I want to explain why.

We have had what we’ve called a “perfect financial storm” over the past year or so that has drained all of our savings and other money avenues.

This includes, but is not limited to the following:

– Having to take on an unexpected car payment after a serious car accident last July, which totaled our paid off vehicle.

– Being dropped by our home insurance company because they deemed the breeds of dogs we have as uninsurable, even though we were completely upfront with them about the dogs we have when bought the house. In fact, we still have the same dogs as we did when we purchased the house. Because of this, we had to get brand x state insurance & have had to jump through hoops to keep it.

– My wife being injured in that aforementioned car accident to the point where she can barely walk at times & she hurts all of the time (both knees injured & shoulder injured). This has required me to care for her almost constantly.

– Me developing a hernia over the past several months, which will probably require surgery soon.

– Me injuring the tendons in my hand in a slip & fall accident in January.

– One of our pups tearing a tendon open back at the New Year leading to a $1100 emergency vet bill.

– Medically, with all of the stress of what’s gone on over the past year – I have developed almost constant tachycardia, which I will be seeing my doctor about tomorrow, actually.

– The property taxes on our home have almost doubled since we bought the house in November of 2021. This had led to a very notable increase in the monthly mortgage payment. We have thought about & seriously considered selling the house & buying a home in a town with much lower taxes. The problem with that is that the interest rate on homes is nearly double of what they were when we bought our home & because of this, our mortgage would probably be about the same, even with lower taxes. No win situation here.

It takes A LOT for me to ask for help & I probably should have fully explained what’s going on before. Reason for this is that I oftentimes feel too proud and I let things get too bad before I ask for help. I also have an issue with internalizing the stress & feel like I can “figure things out”, which has probably led to the tachycardia issues I’ve developed.

Anyways, I wanted to explain things much more, so that you fully understand our situation & know that this account has not been hacked.

Here’s How To Help Us Out:

To help us out using your credit card or debit card, please go to the following link –https://buy.stripe.com/8x2fZiaU4f4UcgO3Uxfw40c .

To help us out using PayPal, please go to the following link – https://www.paypal.com/paypalme/crownweather .

To help us out using Venmo, please go to the following link – https://account.venmo.com/u/crownweather (if Venmo asks you to verify payment, the last 4 digits of my phone number is 0009).

Finally, THANK YOU SO MUCH IN ADVANCE for any support you can send. It is appreciated more than you will ever know.

Summary: All indications seem to be pointing towards that this hurricane season may be below average in terms of the number of storms that occur. It appears that a moderate El Nino will develop by this summer & then possibly trend towards a strong El Nino by this autumn. Should this occur, it would lead to the atmospheric state to be unfavorable for tropical storms and hurricanes to form in the deep tropical Atlantic and the Caribbean. This means that any tropical storms or hurricanes that do form would probably do so in the Atlantic north of 20 North Latitude, as well as in the Gulf.

The Numbers: 11 Named Storms, 5 of those storms becoming Hurricanes and 2 of those hurricanes becoming Major Hurricanes (Category 3 or higher on the Saffir-Simpson scale).

Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE) Index Forecast: I am forecasting an ACE index this year of 80, which signals that this will probably be a below average season.

ENSO Conditions: All data is pointing towards a moderate El Nino developing during this summer. It then appears that the El Nino may intensify into a strong El Nino by this autumn.

The prospects of a El Nino occurring during this summer and autumn will be a negative effect on tropical activity during the hurricane season. This means that below average activity looks fairly probable during this hurricane season in terms of the number of tropical storms and hurricanes.

Sea Surface Temperatures: Ocean water temperatures across much of the tropical Atlantic are currently below average. These below average temperatures are also found across a large part of the eastern and central Caribbean. Above average ocean water temperatures are occurring across much of the North Atlantic north of 20 North Latitude. Above average ocean temperatures are also found across much of the Gulf.

The latest model guidance seems to be pointing towards a scenario where areas of the Atlantic north of 20 North Latitude are warmer than average as compared to the deep tropics throughout this hurricane season. This could set up a scenario where a majority of the deep tropical Atlantic and the Caribbean are void of tropical activity & that most of the activity occurs north of 20 North Latitude.

Analog Years: These are the analog years that seem to be a close match right now to what the 2026 hurricane season may be like. They are 1951, 1954, 1972, 1985, 1991, 1994, 1997, 2009 & 2015.

Most Of The Activity This Season May Occur During May, June & July: Given the expectation of the strengthening El Nino conditions, I think that it’s quite possible that we could see a fast starting hurricane season that ends up becoming almost non-existent during the peak months of the hurricane season.

This means that I think that busier than average activity in terms of tropical development may be in the offing during May, June and July & that a majority of the storms that do form will do so during these 3 months. I then think that the peak months of August and September could be much quieter than average in terms of tropical development.

Areas Of Concern This Season: The combination of the strengthening El Nino conditions, lower than average wind shear values north of 20 North Latitude & warmer than average ocean water temperatures north of 20 North Latitude makes me think that any tropical storms or hurricanes will either curve towards the Bahamas, the East Coast of the United States & Atlantic Canada or be directed north and northeastward near Bermuda and then out into the open Atlantic.

Another area that I have some concerns with in terms of possible impacts from any tropical storms or hurricanes will be along the US Gulf Coast, especially the central and eastern Gulf Coast from Louisiana to Florida. The reason I think this is because I could see a scenario where any westward tropical disturbances moving through the Caribbean will wait to develop until they reach the southern or central Gulf.

I think that the Caribbean & the deep tropical Atlantic will be very quiet as tropical disturbances struggle to develop due to unfavorable environmental conditions.

Finally, even though this looks like it could be a “quiet” hurricane season, it does not mean that there will not be any tropical storm or hurricane impacts. Because of this, always prepare the same way as you would for any other hurricane season.

2026 Atlantic Tropical Cyclone Names:
Arthur
Bertha
Cristobal
Dolly
Edouard
Fay
Gonzalo
Hanna
Isaias
Josephine
Kyle
Leah
Marco
Nana
Omar
Paulette
Rene
Sally
Teddy
Vicky
Wilfred

To Our Faithful & Loyal Crown Weather Members:
I am writing in hopes you might be able to help me out & send some sort of monetary support my way. We have ZERO money in our checking account and are having a tremendous amount of difficulty paying bills.

So, I am really, really hoping you can help us out using your credit card, or you can use PayPal or Venmo to not only support Crown Weather, but to also help us out during this temporary, but very difficult, scary & stressful situation.

Here’s How To Help Me Out:

To help us out using your credit card or debit card, please go to the following link https://buy.stripe.com/8x2fZiaU4f4UcgO3Uxfw40c .

To help us out using PayPal, please go to the following link – https://www.paypal.com/paypalme/crownweather .

To help us out using Venmo, please go to the following link – https://account.venmo.com/u/crownweather (if Venmo asks you to verify payment, the last 4 digits of my phone number is 0009).

Finally, THANK YOU SO MUCH IN ADVANCE for any support you can send. It is appreciated more than you will ever know.

Rob Lightbown
Crown Weather Services

Late Sunday Afternoon & Sunday Night: Widespread severe weather with the threat for widespread damaging winds and tornadoes are expected late Sunday afternoon and Sunday night across a large area from northeast Texas to southwest Lower Michigan. The area of most concern looks to be across northern Louisiana, much of Arkansas, central and northern Mississippi, northwest Alabama, western and middle Tennessee, southeast Missouri, western Kentucky, southern Illinois and southern Indiana.

For The Ohio Valley – A very favorable environment for severe weather looks to exist across much of the Ohio Valley on Sunday and Sunday night.

It is anticipated that a powerful squall line containing 65-80 mph wind gusts will move from eastern Missouri, southern Illinois, western Kentucky and western Tennessee late Sunday afternoon into Sunday evening to across southern Indiana, western Ohio, central Kentucky and middle Tennessee during the overnight hours of Sunday night. Additionally, some embedded supercells may be found in and just ahead of the squall line leading to the threat for a few tornadoes.

Louisiana Into Mississippi and Alabama – That squall line is likely to extend southwestward into Louisiana and eastern Texas during late Sunday afternoon. This squall line will push eastward into Mississippi and Alabama during the overnight hours of Sunday night.

The greatest instability and strongest shear which will help to foster widespread damaging winds and a few tornadoes looks to be found across central and northern Mississippi and northwestern Alabama between 9 pm CDT Sunday night and 6 am Monday morning.

Florida Panhandle & Coastal Alabama – Another area to watch will be along the Alabama coastline and across coastal parts of the Florida Panhandle during the predawn hours of Monday morning. It is possible that some supercell severe thunderstorms could push northward after about 3 am Monday morning into coastal Alabama and across the Florida Panhandle. If this occurs, then there could be a very real risk for a tornado threat across these areas just before sunrise Monday morning.

Monday: Significant severe weather with widespread damaging winds and a few tornadoes will be a threat on Monday from the Carolinas northward into the Mid-Atlantic states. It appears that there are going to be two areas to really watch:

The first area will be across the Carolinas into southeastern Virginia where supercell storms may pose a threat for tornadoes and damaging winds from mid and late afternoon Monday into the evening hours of Monday.

A second area to watch will be across northern Virginia, Maryland, Delaware and southern Pennsylvania where a powerful squall line could sweep through during the daytime hours of Monday. Widespread damaging winds of up to 75 mph in gusts and a few tornadoes will be a threat.