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It appears that the chances of tropical development occurring in the southern Gulf later this coming week have increased some as compared to even yesterday. Latest weather data as of today seems to be pointing towards the possibility of a tropical storm or even a sub-tropical storm to form over the southern Gulf during the second half of this week & then heading northward or northeastward towards the northern Gulf coast by next weekend. This could lead to a large & very wet storm to impact much of the northern and parts of the eastern Gulf Coast by next weekend.

The catalyst for this potential tropical development is going to be a low pressure system forming near the tail end of a frontal boundary that’ll be draped across the Gulf during this week. It appears that this low pressure system will form over the southern Gulf by midweek within an environment that could be favorable for development due to low wind shear and some very warm ocean water temperatures. This is why there has been an uptick in the chances for tropical development by the various weather forecast guidance.

A look at the most recent model guidance reveals that guidance such as the European model shows a very wet and elongated sub-tropical storm that brings very heavy rain to the northern Gulf Coast by next weekend. Other guidance such as the GFS model shows a much more cohesive storm system that becomes a tropical storm over the southern Gulf by late this week. The GFS model then forecasts this system to head for the central Gulf Coast as a tropical storm by next weekend.

The Google Deep Mind ensemble model is now showing about a 50 percent chance for tropical development over the southern Gulf as early as Thursday. A majority of the ensemble members then show a track that takes this system towards the northern Gulf coast by next weekend.

Meanwhile, the European ensemble model guidance is actually showing an 80 percent chance for a tropical depression to form over the southern Gulf late this week. It should be noted that 40 percent of those members are forecasting this system to become a tropical storm. A majority of the ensemble members then show this system to head for the central Gulf Coast by next weekend.

Here Are My Thoughts: One thing that’s for sure is that we will definitely see a low pressure system form over the southern Gulf as soon as late Tuesday or Wednesday. The environment over the southern Gulf definitely looks to be favorable for tropical development of this low pressure system. A look at the current wind shear environment over the Gulf reveals that there is only 5-15 knots of wind shear occurring over much of the central and southern Gulf and I expect to see these low wind shear conditions to continue throughout this coming week. Because of this, I do think that there’s a pretty high chance now that we will see tropical development occur in the southern Gulf between Wednesday and Friday. I put the chances of tropical development at about 50-60 percent right now.

Now, where could this tropical system go? It is expected that an upper-level trough of low pressure will be in place over the eastern United States throughout this coming week right through next weekend. It appears that this upper-level trough will pull this tropical system northward or northeastward causing it to head for the northern Gulf Coast somewhere between southern Louisiana and the Florida Panhandle by next weekend.

The question then becomes what will the environmental conditions be like over the northern Gulf late this week and next weekend. It is possible that there could be some very strong amounts of wind shear to be in place over the northern Gulf & if this happens, it would cause this tropical system to weaken and transform into a very large, very messy and very wet non-tropical low pressure system by the time it reaches the central Gulf Coast. Now, there is the possibility that the wind shear values could be lower and if this occurs, it could mean a system that comes ashore along the central Gulf Coast as a tropical storm instead next weekend.

The potential for southern Gulf tropical development will be something to definitely keep an eye on throughout this week and I will have all sorts of updates for you as needed. At the minimum, I think that we’re probably looking at a large, messy and very wet system that brings quite a bit of rain to much of the northern Gulf Coast next weekend. It should be mentioned that if this system does come in as a tropical storm, then we’d be looking at gusty winds & very rough surf to accompany the very heavy rain.

Even before this potential tropical system heads towards the northern Gulf Coast, that frontal boundary is likely to bring quite a bit of rain this week along the immediate coast of the northern Gulf coast as well as across the northern and central Florida Peninsula It does appear that the heaviest of the rain with amounts of 3 to 6 inches looks to occur this week across the Florida Panhandle and across northern and central parts of the Florida Peninsula. So, the additional heavy rain that may occur with this potential tropical system next weekend could lead to flood issues along the northern Gulf Coast.

An area of low pressure is expected to form along the tail end of a stalled frontal boundary over the southern Gulf during next week. There is a very low possibility that this low pressure system could develop into a tropical system later next week into next weekend over the southern Gulf. It seems more likely that this low pressure system may end up remaining non-tropical in nature.

A look at the model guidance reveals that the chances that they are showing for tropical development seems to be decreasing as compared to what they were showing over the last couple of days. The Google Deep Mind model now shows about a 25 percent chance for tropical development of the southern Gulf low pressure system and the European ensemble model guidance is showing about a 30-40 percent chance of development in the southern Gulf late next week and next weekend.

One big reason why the model guidance are showing a lower chance for tropical development is likely due to the likelihood that there will be some very strong wind shear located to its north across the northern Gulf. This leads to anything that tries to develop to immediately run into a very unfavorable environment. So, even if we do see a tropical system develop in the southern Gulf later next week and next weekend, it would be short-lived.

My Thinking As Of Today Is that we will definitely see a low pressure system fester in the southern Gulf during next week. It may end up being in an environment that’s favorable enough for some development into a tropical system later next week and next weekend. As of right now, I’m putting the chances of tropical development at around 30 percent or so.

Now, where could this system head? It is possible that an upper level trough of low pressure could dig into the eastern United States during next weekend. Should this occur, it could lead to this system to be pulled towards the north or northeast and head towards the central or eastern US Gulf Coast. Even if this occurs, any tropical system would likely transform back into a very messy non-tropical low pressure system that brings mostly heavy rain to the central and eastern US Gulf Coast during next weekend.

Even before this low pressure system heads north and northeastward towards the central and eastern Gulf, that frontal boundary is likely to bring quite a bit of rain to the northern Gulf Coast this weekend. Rain amounts of 3 to 6 inches are likely this weekend across southeastern Louisiana, southern Mississippi, southern Alabama and across the Florida Panhandle. The heavy rain potential then looks to sink southeastward into the central and northern Florida Peninsula during next week as that frontal boundary sinks southward.

It appears that the southern Gulf might be an area to watch for possible tropical mischief during next week. A strong cold front is expected to dive southward through the southern United States during the early part of next week. This front is then expected to stall out over the Gulf during the second half of next week. What then looks to possibly occur is that an area of low pressure could form near the tail end of this front & try to spin up into a tropical system over the southern Gulf during the middle and later parts of next week.

A look at the model guidance reveals that most of them do show hints at potential tropical mischief over the southern Gulf next week. The Google Deep Mind ensemble model seems to suggest that there’s about a 30 percent chance for tropical development by about the middle part of next week over the southern Gulf. Meanwhile the European ensemble model guidance is showing about a 50 percent chance for tropical development by about the second half of next week.

Here Are My Thoughts: At this point, I do think that the possibility of tropical development in the southern Gulf is one that we do need to entertain. The combination of a low pressure system forming near the tail end of a front interacting with energy and moisture in the area and an environment that looks potentially favorable for development is one that can easily lead to tropical development.

So, what I think might occur is that we’ll see a low pressure system form near the tail end of the frontal boundary during the second half of next week. This low pressure system looks to form over the southern Gulf & I do think that if it sits over the southern Gulf long enough, it’ll easily be able to transform into a tropical system. The chances of tropical development in the southern Gulf later next week looks to me to be around 40 percent or so.

Now, where could this possible tropical system head? It is possible that an upper level trough of low pressure could dig into the eastern United States by next weekend. Should this occur, it could lead to any tropical system to be pulled towards the north or northeast and head towards the central or eastern US Gulf Coast. Alternatively, if this upper-level trough ends up weaker than currently forecast, it could miss picking up this possible tropical system & thus it would be left meandering over the Bay of Campeche or the southern Gulf.

At this point, this is something to just keep an eye on & is nothing to be overly worried or concerned about.

The big weather story this week is likely going to be the significant flooding that Hurricane Polo will produce across the Desert Southwestern US & across the I-35 corridor of Oklahoma and Texas.

Hurricane Polo is expected to move across the Baja during this afternoon and tonight and then move inland into northwestern Mexico during the day on Tuesday. It is then expected that Polo will push a ton of moisture into the Desert Southwest and then into Texas and the rest of the Southern Plains states. This will lead to the potential for significant amounts of rainfall & the very real likelihood of significant amounts of flooding.

The first area of concern will be across eastern Arizona and across much of New Mexico where copious amounts of rain is already pushing into parts of Arizona. This heavy rain will expand across the rest of Arizona and across much of New Mexico during this afternoon and tonight. Heavy rain is then expected to continue through Tuesday, especially across eastern Arizona and across a large part of New Mexico.

Rain totals of 2 to 4 inches will be common across the eastern half of Arizona and across a large part of New Mexico. Local amounts of up to 4 to 6 inches are a strong possibility, especially across New Mexico. It should be noted that the Desert Southwest has already seen quite a bit of rain thus far this month & because of this, I have concerns that we are looking at a significant flood event for some areas. All interests across Arizona and New Mexico need to keep close tabs on this potential significant & very serious flood event.

As For Oklahoma & Texas, Especially Along The I-35 Corridor: The moisture from Polo is expected to combine with a frontal boundary to produce repeating rounds of heavy rain from the Hill Country of Texas into North Texas and southern Oklahoma. The worst of the rain looks to occur during Wednesday and Thursday & it appears that the heaviest of the rain will be concentrated right near I-35.

Rain totals are expected to range between 4 and 8 inches from just south and southwest of San Antonio through Waco & Dallas and up to near Tulsa between Wednesday and Friday morning. It should be noted that locally much higher rainfall totals of up to 8 to 12 inches are a possibility somewhere along the Texas and Oklahoma parts of I-35.

Those of you in the Texas Hill Country and the Metroplex need to very closely monitor the weather forecasts surrounding the potential for very serious flooding.

Elsewhere: There are no areas of significant interest across the Atlantic, Caribbean or Gulf. Yes, we do have Invest 91-L that’s located well to the east-northeast of Bermuda, but this system poses no threat to any land areas, even if it does develop into a depression or tropical storm this week.

There are some signals in the data that suggest the southern Gulf or the area around the Yucatan Peninsula might be an area to watch for development between October 6 and October 12.

The reason why I’m watching this area is due to the fact that an area of low pressure might try to form near the tail end of a frontal boundary. Should this occur, we could possibly see some sort of development occur. That said, the chances for tropical development are, at most, 20 percent during this time period. Something to watch, but it’s definitely nothing to be concerned about.

Now, if we don’t see any sort of development next week, there’s the very real chance that we end this hurricane season with zero Atlantic hurricanes. It is expected that a strong sub-tropical jet stream will drop southward towards the Gulf over the next couple of weeks & this would likely end the hurricane season for the United States. We would then transition into what’s likely to be a very wet and very stormy winter along the Gulf Coast and across Florida.

A Nor’Easter is expected to impact Southern New England, New York City, Long Island and New Jersey throughout this weekend.

An area of low pressure is now taking shape to the east of the Mid-Atlantic coastline. It is expected that this low pressure system will strengthen as it slowly moves northward before stalling just south of Long Island on Saturday. From here, this low pressure system is expected to head westward reaching the south coast of New Jersey by Sunday afternoon. Ultimately this low pressure system will weaken and head eastward away from the coastline by early next week.

Winds: Wind gusts of up to 50 to 60 mph will be common this weekend across coastal areas from New Jersey and Long Island northward into coastal Southern New England.

Given the fact that most trees are still fully leafed, these strong wind gusts will likely cause some downed trees and powerlines leading to at least some scattered power outages throughout this weekend.

Further inland, wind gusts of up to 40 to 50 mph are expected this weekend across inland parts of Southern New England, southeastern New York and New Jersey & again, these type of wind gusts could lead to snapped tree limbs and cause some scattered power outages.

Coastal Flooding: The combination of persistent, strong onshore winds, high surf and higher than average astronomical high tides will lead to moderate to major coastal flooding at the time of high tide along the Mid-Atlantic coast.

The worst of the coastal flooding is expected to occur this weekend across coastal Virginia, coastal Maryland, coastal Delaware & along the entire New Jersey coastline. Major coastal flooding looks very likely across these areas.

Further north, minor to possibly moderate coastal flooding at the time of high tide is expected over the next few days across all of coastal New England into Long Island and New York City.

Rainfall: Heavy rain is expected throughout this weekend across much of the Mid-Atlantic states into central and southern New England.

1 to 3 inches of total rainfall can be expected across inland parts of Southern New England and across inland parts of the Mid-Atlantic states.

Closer to the coast, rain totals of 3 to 6 inches are a good possibility across coastal New England & in particular across Cape Cod & coastal Rhode Island. 3 to 5 inches of total rainfall is expected along the Jersey Shore and across a large part of Long Island.

Hurricane Nolo is located about 300 miles or so to the south of the Big Island of Hawaii & is expected to pass to within 150 miles of the Big Island as an intensifying hurricane on Saturday. Nolo is then expected to turn sharply to the west and pass to the south of the rest of the Hawaiian Islands late this weekend into early next week.

The good news is that the forecast track of Nolo has trended further south & away from Hawaii & because of this, it has lowered the risk of the core of the hurricane directly impacting the Big Island and Maui.

The bad news is that even though Nolo will be passing further south than previously thought, it will still bring extremely heavy rainfall and catastrophic flooding to the Big Island and Maui throughout this weekend. Areas most susceptible to the catastrophic flooding will include the east-facing slopes of the Big Island where as much as 25 inches of rain will accumulate this weekend. So, catastrophic flooding and mudslides are expected across the Big Island of Hawaii and Maui throughout this weekend.

In addition, tropical storm conditions are likely to impact the higher terrain of the Big Island and Maui this afternoon through tonight and into part of Saturday. Tropical storm conditions may then affect Oahu and Kauai on Saturday night and Sunday.

The very rough 2026 Hurricane Season for Hawaii is going to get even rougher by Friday into this weekend.

I wanted to cover the very real potential that the Big Island of Hawaii could be significantly impacted by yet another hurricane in just a couple of days from now.

Tropical Depression Fifteen is currently located over the central Pacific about 400 miles or so to the south-southeast of the Big Island of Hawaii. It appears that a ridge of high pressure that’s located to the northeast of Hawaii will weaken and push to the east. Meanwhile, an upper-level trough of low pressure is expected to push into the western part of the Hawaiian Islands. This will cause this system to turn to the north and head for the Hawaiian Islands by Thursday.

It is also expected that this system will strengthen significantly over the next couple of days becoming a major hurricane by Friday. It is then anticipated that the core of our expected hurricane will either move very close to or move right over the Big Island of Hawaii by Friday night or Saturday.

It should be noted that there is a large amount of uncertainty as to how close the future major hurricane will get to the Big Island, but it could be close enough to bring some very significant impacts in terms of wind, surge and heavy rain by Friday and continuing into this weekend.

All residents and visitors to the Big Island need to start preparing now for very heavy rainfall amounts and the potential for major flooding. This heavy rain looks to begin on the Big Island as soon as Thursday and then continue through Friday and into this weekend. Catastrophic amounts of flooding and mudslides are looking quite likely for the Big Island & this is something that needs to be taken very seriously.

Additionally, residents and visitors to the Big Island need to be aware that hurricane conditions may impact parts of the Big Island by late Friday and then continue through Friday night and into Saturday. How strong the winds may get will depend on how close the core of the future hurricane gets to the Big Island.

Elsewhere: On the Atlantic side, the only item of any real importance right now is the expectation that a strong coastal low pressure system will bring heavy rain, strong winds, coastal flooding and beach erosion to areas from central and southern New England southward through the Mid-Atlantic states.

A non-tropical low pressure system is expected to strengthen significantly as it tracks offshore of the Mid-Atlantic coast from tonight through Thursday and Friday. This strong low pressure system is then expected to slow way down in forward speed and meander near the coast of southern New England during this weekend.

Coastal Flooding: The combination of persistent, strong onshore winds, high surf and higher than average astronomical high tides will lead to moderate to even major coastal flooding at the time of high tide along the Mid-Atlantic coast.

The worst of the coastal flooding is expected to occur during Thursday, Friday and Saturday across coastal Virginia, coastal Maryland, coastal Delaware & across southern New Jersey. Moderate to major coastal flooding looks very likely across these areas.

Further north, minor to possibly moderate coastal flooding at the time of high tide is expected over the next few days across all of coastal New England into Long Island and northern New Jersey.

Strong Winds & Heavy Rain: This storm is also expected to bring some strong winds with gusts of over 45-50 mph across the Mid-Atlantic coast during Thursday and Friday across the Mid-Atlantic coast.

Windy to very windy conditions are then expected across central and southern New England from Friday through this weekend. Wind gusts of over 50 mph are expected along the New England coast with wind gusts of up to 40 mph expected across inland sections of central and southern New England.

Additionally, heavy rain can be expected throughout this weekend across parts of central and southern New England. The higher rainfall totals closer to 2 to 4 inches or more will occur closer to the New England coast with lesser rainfall totals expected inland.

An area of low pressure is expected to develop offshore of the North Carolina coast by about Wednesday. This low pressure system is expected to get blocked by a big high pressure system over northern New England and Atlantic Canada. This will cause the low pressure system to be pulled westward towards the Mid-Atlantic coast and Southern New England by late this week and this weekend. Additionally, it is expected that this low pressure system will strengthen as it moves over some very warm waters of the Gulf Stream late this week & there is even a small chance that it could try to become a sub-tropical storm.

It should be noted that the exact track of this low pressure system is still uncertain. The various model guidance have some very different potential outcomes ranging from a track that keeps this low pressure system well offshore to a track that brings this storm system very close to the Southern New England and upper Mid-Atlantic coast by this weekend. That being said, the pressure gradient between the strong high pressure system over northern New England and this storm system will lead to some very gusty onshore winds & rough seas to occur from the Outer Banks of North Carolina northward to New England from Thursday through this weekend. This, in turn, could lead to a prolonged period where winds will gust to over 40 mph and cause multiple cycles of coastal flooding and coastal beach erosion. In addition, periods of heavy rain are possible across the Mid-Atlantic states and across Southern New England late this week and this weekend, depending on the exact track of this low pressure system.

At this point, it’s more likely than not that this low pressure system will probably stay non-tropical. That being said, there is a small chance that this low pressure system could become a sub-tropical storm or even a tropical storm. Given the fact that it will be moving very slowly over the very warm waters of the Gulf Stream, it’s possible that these very warm waters could help to transition this storm from a non-tropical one into one that’s a sub-tropical or even a tropical storm. Either way, the impacts later this week and this week across the Mid-Atlantic States and Southern New England will be the same, whether it’s a non-tropical storm or a tropical storm.

Bottom Line Is That this storm is going to bring the following late this week and this weekend:

– Heavy rain with amounts of 1 to 3 inches are possible across parts of Southern New England across the upper Mid-Atlantic States from late this week into this weekend.

– Very gusty onshore winds are expected across coastal Southern New England and across the coastal Mid-Atlantic states. Wind gusts of over 40 mph are quite possible late this week through this weekend.

– Coastal flooding and beach erosion is very likely across multiple high-tide cycles late this week through this weekend across the Mid-Atlantic coast and across coastal Southern New England.

All interests across Southern New England, Long Island and across the Mid-Atlantic states should closely monitor the forecasts surrounding this coastal storm as changes to the forecast are not only possible, but quite likely.

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It appears that we will probably see tropical development this weekend way out over the eastern North Atlantic to the southwest of Azores. Satellite imagery and weather data revealed that a well-defined low pressure system has formed near 33 North Latitude, 34 West Longitude.

The shower and thunderstorm activity associated with the low pressure system are fairly well organized and I do think that we’ll probably see this low pressure system become a tropical depression and probably even a tropical storm during this weekend.

Even though we will have tropical development occur this weekend, this system is expected to pose no threat to any land areas.

In terms of a potential track, a majority of the model guidance show this low pressure system tracking towards the southwest and then west across the eastern North Atlantic throughout this weekend and into next week. It’s forward motion looks to be rather slow & because of this, it will remain over the open North Atlantic with no threats to land.

Elsewhere Across The Atlantic, Caribbean & Gulf: No tropical development is expected during this weekend across the rest of the Atlantic, Caribbean and Gulf.

The area of low pressure that is located over the central North Atlantic to the east of Bermuda has weakened substantially & because of this, tropical development is not expected from it.

Turning to next week, model guidance seems to be pointing towards the potential for a coastal storm system to develop near the coastal Carolinas near the middle part of next week. This coastal storm could bring locally heavy rain & gusty onshore winds from the Mid-Atlantic states southward through the coastal Carolinas between Tuesday and Friday of next week. It is then possible that this coastal storm could track northeastward into parts of New England bringing gusty onshore winds and locally heavy rain to central and southern New England next weekend.

While next week’s coastal storm likely will be non-tropical, it may still need to be watched closely for signs of transformation into a sub-tropical storm. The reason why I say this is because this storm system is expected to travel over the very warm waters of the Gulf Stream & this could give it enough of a boost for it to transform into a sub-tropical system. It should be noted that the European ensemble model guidance does show a 30 percent chance of this storm becoming a tropical system just offshore of the North Carolina coast around the middle part of next week. Something to watch for next week.