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As expected, Hurricane Rafael is beginning to wind down after peaking at a 120 mph Category 3 hurricane. In fact, latest reports from reconnaissance aircraft indicate that Rafael may not even be a hurricane now and is probably now a tropical storm.

Over the weekend, Rafael will continue to weaken quickly as it meanders around the central and then southwestern Gulf of Mexico. Rafael continues to be of no threat at all to the Gulf Coast and it seems likely that it will dissipate during the first half of next week near the Bay of Campeche.

The Other Item I’m Keeping Tabs On Is a rather robust tropical wave that’s pushing across the Windward Islands this evening. It is expected to enter the southeastern Caribbean a little later tonight and it may really need to be watched closely next week as it pushes towards the western Caribbean. The reason why is because an upper level low pressure is expected to retrograde and move out of the region putting this tropical wave in a favorable environment for development. Model guidance such as the GFS, Canadian and ICON models are pretty bullish in showing development, especially later next week. The European model, on the other hand, looks more muted in its forecast of development in the Caribbean. That said, the European ensemble model seems more bullish and is forecasting a 75-plus percent chance of development during the middle and end of next week in the area just south of Jamaica.

Because of the favorable look in the environment across the Caribbean next week, I do think that there’s a fairly decent chance that we’ll see tropical development over the western half of the Caribbean between Wednesday and Saturday of next week.

While I wouldn’t excessively worry or be stressed out about this possible development if you are in the western Caribbean, I do advise you to keep close tabs on this possible development. This includes those of you in Cuba, the Yucatan Peninsula, Belize, the Cayman Islands, Jamaica and Hispaniola. I will be keeping an eye on this and will have updates as needed.

Hurricane Rafael: Rafael seems to have strengthened in the southeastern Gulf of Mexico this afternoon and is currently a 105 mph Category 2 hurricane. Because of how organized the hurricane looks, it will likely hang on to its strength throughout tonight and into much of Friday.

Weakening of the storm then looks to occur beginning on Saturday as it begins to encounter a more hostile environment.

In addition to weakening by this weekend, Rafael is expected to move to the west across the Gulf of Mexico throughout this weekend. While it is pretty normal for a storm to track westward across the Gulf of Mexico, it is almost unheard of during the month of November. Most Gulf of Mexico storms in November track northward or northeastward and because of this, Rafael will be a very unusual storm in that aspect.

In fact, only Hurricane Jeanne in 1980 tracked westward over the Gulf of Mexico during November and followed a very similar track to Rafael.

Even though it may look pretty ominous that Rafael will be tracking westward towards the Western Gulf this weekend, I want to stress that this storm will significantly weaken and probably even completely fall apart before it reaches Texas or Mexico. At this point, I deem this system no threat to Mexico or Texas. So great news there!!

The next tropical weather discussion will be issued on Friday Afternoon.

Major Hurricane Rafael: Rafael has been strengthening at a fairly quick rate since last night and is now a Category 3 hurricane. It is expected to pass over western Cuba over the next several hours where it will produce over 100-120 mph wind gusts, a storm surge of 8 to 10 feet and heavy rainfall.

Now there have been significant changes to the forecast track of Rafael once it pushes into the Gulf of Mexico late tonight and during Thursday. The good news is that the changes to the track forecast have significantly decreased any impacts from Rafael on the US Gulf Coast.

The latest model guidance are now pointing towards a scenario that shows a stronger than expected high pressure ridge over the Deep South. Because of this, this high pressure ridge will suppress the storm and keep it over the southern Gulf of Mexico where it’ll head westward and then even southwestward from Friday through this weekend. In fact, it’s now possible that Rafael may head for the coast of eastern Mexico between Tampico and Veracuz late this weekend where it could make landfall as a tropical storm early next week.

So, it now looks very likely that Rafael will not be any threat to the US Gulf Coast. The Florida Keys will continue to see stormy weather from Rafael tonight into Thursday with wind gusts of up to 45 mph, bands of heavy rain and thunderstorms expected.

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Elsewhere Across The Atlantic, Caribbean & Gulf Of Mexico: First up, I am still keeping an eye on a trough of low pressure that’s located to the east-northeast of the Leeward Islands. This system is expected to head westward and potentially develop a surface low pressure near the northern Leeward Islands later tonight or during Thursday. It is possible that a short-lived depression could form from this system near Puerto Rico and Hispaniola during Friday. Even if that occurs, it should be torn apart by dry air and shear with it dissipating by the time it reaches the southeastern Bahamas this weekend.

In addition to that system, I’m also going to be watching the Caribbean once again next week where tropical development may once again occur. The catalyst of this possible development looks to be a tropical wave that’s now approaching the Windward Islands. This tropical wave may find itself in a favorable environment for development during next week once it reaches the central and western Caribbean and it is something that’ll need to be watched closely.

The model guidance have been on and off with showing actual development and for now there is no real consistency in the guidance. That said, those of you with interests in the western and central Caribbean, including Cuba, Hispaniola, the Cayman Islands, Jamaica and even Puerto Rico should keep close tabs on this possible development.

The next tropical weather discussion will be issued on Thursday Afternoon.

Tropical Storm Rafael: Rafael has been getting better organized throughout today and will likely be a hurricane shortly.

It is expected that Rafael will head on a northwesterly path taking it across the Cayman Islands tonight and then over western Cuba around midday on Wednesday. A track into the southeastern Gulf of Mexico is then expected by later Wednesday night and Thursday. It is also expected that Rafael will strengthen quite quickly over the next couple of days due to a favorable environment. This means that Rafael will likely be a hurricane within the next few hours and then will probably peak at at least Category 2 strength during Wednesday and Thursday. It is not out of the question that this storm could peak at Category 3 intensity at some point during Wednesday and Thursday.

Forecast Impacts For The Cayman Islands & Western Cuba: Hurricane conditions with wind gusts of up to 80-100 mph can be expected throughout tonight across the Cayman Islands. Additionally, very rough surf and dangerous waves as well as rain totals of 4 to 8 inches can be expected tonight across the Cayman Islands.

Hurricane conditions with wind gusts of over 100 mph is then expected across western Cuba and the Isle of Youth throughout the day on Wednesday. In addition to this, a 4 to 6 foot storm surge, very rough surf and dangerous waves can be expected throughout Wednesday. Finally, 4 to 8 inches of rainfall can be expected across western Cuba tonight through Wednesday.

Forecast Impacts For The Florida Keys: Even though Rafael is expected to pass well west of the Florida Keys on Wednesday night into Thursday, it is still expected to bring tropical storm conditions, a storm surge of up to 3 feet and upwards of 4 to 8 inches of rainfall across the lower and middle Florida Keys during Wednesday and Wednesday night.

Once Rafael reaches the Gulf of Mexico starting later Thursday and Friday, it is expected to head on a more west-northwest track as a high pressure ridge over the southeastern United States guides the storm in this direction. Also, a combination of strong wind shear and dry air will cause Rafael to begin to weaken starting on Friday with this weakening continuing through this weekend.

As for a potential track, there are a couple of possible track scenarios – The first is that Rafael could head northward towards the Louisiana and Mississippi coastlines as barely a tropical storm and more likely a weakening tropical depression this weekend. The second is that Rafael may head towards the western Gulf of Mexico and wind down into a remnant dissipating system before it even reaches the Texas or Mexico coast.

In either scenario, little or no impact in terms of strong winds or surge are expected from Rafael along the Gulf Coast. Rain looks to be the most widespread impact from whatever is left of Rafael. Rain in the form of squalls can be expected along the northern Gulf Coast this weekend with this rain spreading up along the Appalachian Mountains this weekend into early next week. Rain totals of up to 2 to 4 inches are possible which could lead to some localized flood problems.

Model Track Forecast:

Satellite Imagery:

The next tropical weather discussion will be issued on Wednesday Afternoon.

Tropical Storm Rafael: Reports from reconnaissance aircraft as well as data from satellite imagery indicate that our system in the south-central Caribbean is coming together rather quickly today. In fact, the most recent data from reconnaissance aircraft reveals that they have found a central barometric pressure of 997 millibars and 45 mph maximum winds. Because of this, it is now a tropical storm and has been named Rafael. Also, it seems that an eye wall seems to be forming and because of this, don’t be surprised to see Rafael quickly strengthen into a hurricane as we get into tonight and Tuesday.

It is expected that Rafael will turn more to the northwest and strengthen as we get into Tuesday. Because of this, Rafael will pass very close to Jamaica as an upper end tropical storm during the day on Tuesday and then head right over the Cayman Islands as a hurricane on Tuesday night. All interests in Jamaica and the Cayman Islands should be ready for heavy rain and some very gusty winds

Rafael is then expected to move right over western Cuba on Wednesday and enter the southeastern Gulf of Mexico on Wednesday night as a hurricane. It should be noted that the environmental conditions are expected to be favorable for strengthening for the next 2 to 3 days or so and because of this, I fully expect Rafael to peak as a Category 2 hurricane in the southeastern Gulf of Mexico by Thursday.

Even though Rafael will be a hurricane in the southeastern Gulf of Mexico on Wednesday night and Thursday, there is zero chance that it will reach land as a hurricane and in fact, it may not even be a tropical storm when it reaches land this weekend.

The reason why is because a frontal system is expected to push into the Deep South late this week causing Rafael to slow way down in forward speed as it heads northwestward into the northern Gulf of Mexico by about Friday and Saturday. This slowdown in forward speed will be accompanied by dramatic weakening of the storm. Even though the water temperatures of the Gulf of Mexico are still very capable of sustaining a hurricane, it is expected that some very dry air will be pulled into the storm from that frontal system. Also, there is expected to be some very strong westerly wind shear over the northern Gulf of Mexico. The combination of the dry air and strong wind shear will cause Rafael will weaken substantially by Friday and Saturday as it gets into the northern Gulf of Mexico.

Even if Rafael makes landfall on the central Gulf Coast this weekend, it may not be a tropical storm by that point.

Expected Impacts To Jamaica, The Cayman Islands & Western Cuba: Jamaica is likely to be affected by tropical storm conditions tonight through Tuesday with wind gusts of up to 65 mph expected.

As for the Cayman Islands, hurricane conditions can be expected starting on Tuesday afternoon and continuing through Tuesday night. Wind gusts of up to 80-90 mph can be expected across the Caymans.

Western Cuba is also expected to see hurricane conditions with wind gusts of up to 100 mph during Wednesday.

In addition to the strong winds, heavy rainfall is also expected to be an issue across Jamaica, the Cayman Islands and western Cuba over the next couple of days with 5 to 10 inches of rainfall expected. Flooding and mudslides are likely.

Possible Impacts To The US Gulf Coast: As I already mentioned, a direct hurricane impact on the US Gulf Coast looks very unlikely due to the expectation of strong wind shear and lots of dry air knocking the storm down as it heads northwestward across the Gulf of Mexico later this week.

Still, some squalls of heavy rain and tropical storm force wind gusts are expected across the lower and middle Florida Keys starting on Wednesday afternoon and continuing through Wednesday night and Thursday.

Further north, there is a very low chance that parts of the Louisiana and Mississippi coasts may see tropical storm force winds this weekend. More likely though is that heavy rainfall could be an issue across the Deep South this weekend.

Bottom line is that the risk for a direct hurricane impact on the Gulf Coast is extremely low. That said, all interests along the northern Gulf Coast should still keep close tabs on the progress of this storm, just in case.

Model Track Forecast:

Satellite Imagery:

The next tropical weather discussion will be issued on Tuesday Afternoon.

Invest 97-L Located Over The South-Central Caribbean: An area of disturbed weather located to the south of Jamaica over the south-central Caribbean seems to be getting better organized today. The shower and thunderstorm activity associated with Invest 97-L seems to be beginning to wrap around the low pressure center.

Because of this increase in organization, it seems very likely that Invest 97-L will become a tropical depression as soon as sometime on Monday and probably a tropical storm shortly thereafter.

It is also expected that Invest 97-L will head north and then northwestward over the next couple of days bringing this system across Jamaica by Monday night as a tropical storm and then across the Cayman Islands during Tuesday as a tropical storm. Those of you with interests in Jamaica and the Cayman Islands should be ready for tropical storm conditions from Monday through Tuesday. This will include squalls of heavy rain, flooding and very gusty winds.

By late Tuesday night and Wednesday morning, it is looking likely that Invest 97-L will push northwestward across western Cuba and then reach the southeastern Gulf of Mexico late Wednesday as a tropical storm.

Once we get into the later parts of this coming week, there are a lot of different questions on where Invest 97-L will track and how strong it may get in the Gulf of Mexico.

One factor to the potential strength of Invest 97-L in the Gulf of Mexico is going to be the environmental conditions. It currently appears that the environmental conditions will be highly unfavorable for strengthening over the northern Gulf of Mexico while they look to be favorable for strengthening over the southern Gulf of Mexico.

Given this, there are at least a couple of possible scenarios at play:

The upper level weather pattern will cause Invest 97-L to be steered to the northwest by a strong high pressure ridge over Florida. An upper level trough of low pressure over the southwestern United States will cause that high pressure ridge to actually strengthen by late this week.

On one hand, if Invest 97-L tracks quickly in forward speed leading to the storm outrunning the strengthening high pressure system. In this scenario, Invest 97-L could approach the Florida Panhandle and Big Bend area of Florida late this week. That said, the strong wind shear values over the northern Gulf of Mexico would cause significant weakening of any system approaching the Panhandle and Big Bend areas of Florida.

The second scenario is for a slowly moving system to track northwestward into the central Gulf of Mexico by late this coming week where it would run headlong into strong wind shear and likely weaken and dissipate before reaching the northern Gulf Coast.

The main takeaway from all of this is that the uncertainty with where Invest 97-L might go in the Gulf of Mexico and because of this, all interests in the Gulf of Mexico and in particular along the northern and eastern Gulf Coast should closely monitor the latest with Invest 97-L.

Model Track Forecast:

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Area Of Disturbed Weather Expected To Form Near The Northern Leeward Islands By The Middle Part Of This Week: If Invest 97-L isn’t going to be a problem enough, it does look like there is the likelihood that we’ll see a separate area of disturbed weather form near the northern Leeward Islands around the middle part of this week.

This is going to be an area of disturbed weather that’ll need to be watched closely as it’ll probably head westward and be caught underneath that high pressure ridge. Because of this, it seems plausible it’ll be steered into the southern Bahamas by about Friday or Saturday and then potentially head for the area of the northwestern Caribbean near western Cuba and the Yucatan Peninsula around next Sunday and next Monday.

For now, this is a possible system that might need to be watched late this coming week and next weekend, especially for those of you over the northern Caribbean Islands and the Bahamas.

The next tropical weather discussion will be issued on Monday Afternoon.

Because there are no significant changes to the forecast of the slowly developing area of disturbed weather located over the southwestern Caribbean, I am sending out this fairly quick update rather than a full write up.

A broad area of low pressure and its associated area of disturbed weather located over the southwestern Caribbean has been designated Invest 97-L by the National Hurricane Center. Invest 97-L is expected to slowly organize and develop over the next couple of days as it heads northward from the southwestern Caribbean to about the area near Jamaica by Monday.

I still think that we’ll see Invest 97-L become a tropical depression by about Monday when its located near Jamaica and then strengthen into a tropical storm (its name would be Rafael) possibly by about Tuesday as it heads in the northwestern Caribbean.

It is looking more likely that Invest 97-L will move into the southern Gulf of Mexico by late Wednesday as possibly a tropical storm. Beyond this though, the forecast track and strength of this system is still quite uncertain. Model guidance show a couple of possible scenarios depending on how the upper level weather pattern evolves.

One scenario is for the high pressure ridge over Florida to push to the east allowing for Invest 97-L to move north and northeastward towards Florida late next week.

The other scenario is for the high pressure ridge to hold firm over Florida leading to this system to push into the central and western Gulf of Mexico late next week.

One thing to note about about scenarios is that it appears that the wind shear values should be fairly strong leading to Invest 97-L to not be a very strong system and in fact, it probably will weaken as it pushes into the southern Gulf of Mexico due to unfavorable conditions.

My recommendation to those of you in the Gulf of Mexico is to keep close tabs on the latest with Invest 97-L. Fortunately we have plenty of time to keep an eye on it and I wouldn’t stress or overly worry about it.

For those of you in the western and central Caribbean, including the Yucatan Peninsula, Belize, Cuba, the Cayman Islands and Jamaica, I recommend that you should closely watch this system as it could bring you heavy rain and wind impacts next week. Just know that I will keep you posted on the latest.

I continue to keep very close tabs on the potential for tropical development to occur around Sunday or Monday in the west-central Caribbean very near Jamaica. This system then has the potential to push into the northwestern Caribbean by the middle part of next week and then possibly into the southern Gulf of Mexico towards the end of next week.

The catalyst for this possible development is expected to be the formation of a low pressure system and its associated area of disturbed weather that looks to occur over the southwestern Caribbean this weekend. Once we see the development of that low pressure system, it looks increasingly more likely that we’re going to see it develop into a tropical depression and then a tropical storm as it heads towards the area near Jamaica by Sunday or Monday.

Right now, the thunderstorm activity over the southwestern Caribbean are quite disorganized and any development will be slow to occur as this thunderstorm activity pushes to the north over the weekend. That said, I do think that it’s quite possible that we’ll have a developing tropical depression that’s located near Jamaica by Monday.

Turning to next week, the model guidance all seem to be in fairly strong agreement that a high pressure system located over Florida should steer our developing tropical system towards the area around the northwestern Caribbean and the Yucatan Peninsula by about the middle part of next week. Most of the model guidance seem to show this system strengthening to a tropical storm by the time it reaches the northwestern Caribbean.

This means that I think that it’s quite plausible we’ll have a tropical storm located over the northwestern Caribbean somewhere between western Cuba and the eastern Yucatan Peninsula by Wednesday of next week.

Beyond this, the future track of this tropical system becomes very uncertain.

The weather pattern during the second half of next week will include a high pressure system anchored over Florida which should lead to this system to move northwestward and then northward into the southern Gulf of Mexico. It should be noted that even if this system pushes into the southern Gulf of Mexico later next week, it’ll likely run into some very strong wind shear which should cause any system to weaken substantially.

This means that, for now, I do not think that this tropical system will be much of a concern for the US Gulf Coast. That said, I cannot completely rule out a Florida threat from this system during the second half of next week, although, I’m quite skeptical that it’ll actually be a serious threat to Florida. The reason why I’m skeptical is that Florida tropical storm or hurricane impacts in November are extremely rare due to the fact that the ocean waters surrounding the Florida coast are beginning to cool off and that the upper level winds are quite strong.

There are signals that I’m going to be watching for that could lead to a more robust impact to the eastern Gulf of Mexico and Florida. These include faster development this weekend and early next week; a further north development towards the northern Caribbean; rapid strengthening in the southern Gulf of Mexico during the middle part of next week; a sharper and faster moving front which could lead to a faster turn to the northeast. If any of these signals begin to materialize, then we could end up with a more significant impact to Florida later next week. For now though, I wouldn’t overly stress or worry about this as a significant hurricane impact seems unlikely across Florida or the eastern Gulf of Mexico. That said, my recommendation to you though is that you should keep checking back for the latest on this system, just in case.

For those of you in the western and central Caribbean, including the Yucatan Peninsula, Belize, Cuba, the Cayman Islands and Jamaica, I recommend that you should closely watch this system as it could bring you heavy rain and wind impacts next week. Just know that I will keep you posted on the latest.

The next tropical weather discussion will be issued on Saturday Afternoon.

While it looks like we may possibly see tropical development in the western or central Caribbean, the time frame for this to possibly occur has been pushed back from late this week and this weekend to sometime during the early and middle parts of next week.

Current indications are that an area of low pressure will form over the southwestern Caribbean just south of Jamaica sometime this weekend. This low pressure system and its associated area of disturbed weather will find itself in an environment that’s favorable for development and because of this, I do think that we’ll see gradual development into a tropical system as we get into next week while this disturbed weather meanders around the western and central Caribbean.

The model guidance hasn’t been that consistent in their forecasts of development of this system. Last night’s model guidance backed off a bit on their forecasts of development. The latest guidance today, however, has become a bit more aggressive again with their forecasts of development next week in the western Caribbean. The trends in the model guidance seem to be pointing towards slower development this weekend and next week. These trends are a bit concerning as any tropical system that takes its time to develop will hang out longer in the western Caribbean before being caught in the steering flow associated with a southeast US high pressure system. This could (and I strongly emphasize the word could) lead to any tropical system to be guided into the area around the Yucatan Peninsula late next week and then into the Gulf of Mexico towards next weekend. While this is something that’ll need to be watched, it is also something that we’ll have plenty of time to keep an eye on.

Here Are My Thoughts: We’re still at least 5 days away from seeing any sort of possible tropical development in the western or central Caribbean. So, for now, we’ll probably see a slowly evolving low pressure system that gradually heads northward from the southwestern Caribbean this weekend to the west-central Caribbean by early next week.

Once this low pressure system and its associated area of disturbed weather reaches the west-central Caribbean early next week, it’ll possibly develop slowly next week as it meanders west-northwest and northwest towards the Yucatan Peninsula.

Beyond this, it’s possible that any tropical system may reach the southern Gulf of Mexico late next week into next weekend. What happens past this is extremely uncertain, but usually the Gulf of Mexico is highly unfavorable to sustain a tropical system by mid-November and I have hopes that if we do see a tropical system push into the southern Gulf of Mexico, it’ll be quickly torn apart by high wind shear and highly unfavorable environmental conditions. We’ll see though.

Bottom Line Is That I still recommend that those of you with interests in the western and central Caribbean should continue to closely watch this possible tropical system, especially during next week.. This includes those of you in the Yucatan Peninsula, the Cayman Islands, Cuba, Jamaica, Haiti, the Dominican Republic and Puerto Rico.

At the minimum, heavy rainfall with flash flooding and mudslides could be a big time problem across the western and central Caribbean starting as soon as this weekend and then continuing through next week. This includes the Yucatan Peninsula, the Cayman Islands, much of Cuba, Jamaica, Haiti, the Dominican Republic and possibly even Puerto Rico.

The next tropical weather discussion will be issued on Friday Afternoon.

The western and central Caribbean continues to look like an area that will need to be watched very closely for tropical development starting late this week and this weekend. In fact, I think that the chances are pretty high that we will see the formation of a tropical depression or tropical storm as we get into early November over the western and central Caribbean. The reason why I think this is due to the fact that it is likely that the background state over the Caribbean will turn favorable for tropical development during the first week of November. This favorable background state will include an upward motion pulse of the Madden Julian Oscillation, low wind shear values and a favorable weather pattern for tropical development.

Right now though, there are no areas of disturbed weather over the Caribbean and the entire Caribbean is highly unfavorable for tropical development due to very strong wind shear values.

This might change as we head towards the end of this week and this weekend as it looks possible that we will see the formation of a low pressure system and an area of disturbed weather over the southwestern Caribbean. Also, it looks possible that we’ll see the environmental conditions become favorable for development as this area of disturbed weather moves northward into the central Caribbean later this weekend into the first half of next week.

A couple of things that I wanted to mention about this possible tropical development:

The first is that this will probably be a tropical system that festers and slowly moves around the central and western Caribbean throughout next week. Because of this, heavy rainfall with flash flooding and mudslides could be a big time problem across the central and possibly across parts of the western Caribbean starting this weekend and continuing through next week. This includes the Cayman Islands, much of Cuba, Jamaica, Haiti, the Dominican Republic and possibly even Puerto Rico.

The second thing that I wanted to mention is that the overall weather pattern for this weekend through next week still seems to support the idea that any tropical system will either meander around the central and western Caribbean before pushing westward into Central America or that it may lift north and northeastward out of the Caribbean and across the Bahamas before pushing into the open Atlantic. At this point, I still do not think that this system will be a Gulf of Mexico threat or a US East Coast threat.

Bottom Line Is That I recommend that those of you with interests in the western and central Caribbean should continue to closely watch this possible tropical system, especially as we get into this weekend and next week. This includes those of you in the Cayman Islands, Cuba, Jamaica, Haiti, the Dominican Republic and Puerto Rico.

The next tropical weather discussion will be issued on Wednesday Afternoon.