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Satellite imagery and weather analysis today revealed that an area of convection has formed just offshore of the South Carolina and Georgia coastline. This convection has formed near the tail end of a frontal boundary & it appears that a low pressure system has formed from this convection.

A look at the environmental conditions around this low pressure system reveals that while the wind shear values are favorable for development, there is quite a bit of dry air surrounding this disturbance. This can easily be seen in water vapor imagery. This dry air is likely to limit any sort of tropical development from occurring & I certainly think that we will not see any sort of tropical development from this low pressure system.

The Google Deep Mind ensemble guidance, which was the most “enthused” model in showing development last week, now has all but dropped the forecast of development of this low pressure system. In fact, the latest model run from the Google Deep Mind model now has less than a 5 percent chance of development of this disturbance.

It is expected that this low pressure system will get trapped underneath a large upper-level high pressure system that’s centered over the Ohio Valley. This is the same upper-level high pressure system that will be producing dangerous heat and humidity across much of the central and eastern United States throughout this week.

The upper-level high pressure system is expected to steer the low pressure system and its associated area of disturbed weather westward back towards the coast of southeast Georgia or the South Carolina coast by late this week.

Again, I am not expecting to see any sort of development from this low pressure system & the flood threat from this system late this week across the southeastern US is extremely low due to the likelihood of dry, sinking air that’ll be present across much of the eastern United States this week. That said, this disturbance may still produce some increase in the afternoon thunderstorm activity from the Georgia coastline westward to across the Florida Peninsula and into the northern Gulf coast late this week into this weekend.

Elsewhere across the Atlantic, Caribbean and the Gulf – All is quiet and no tropical development is expected throughout this week through the weekend.

Given that it looks pretty notable on satellite imagery, I did want to mention the area of convection now located just north of the Leeward Islands near 22 North Latitude, 62 West Longitude. This convection is associated with a surface trough of low pressure. While it looks impressive on satellite imagery, tropical development of this system is not expected due to strong amounts of wind shear & an abundance of dry air that surrounds this convection. It is expected that this convection will be picked up by that old front offshore of the southeast coast of the US in a day or two & be swept out into the open Atlantic.

From now through next Saturday, the Fourth of July, We are running a Fourth Of July LIFETIME subscription special.

From now until 11:59 pm Eastern Time next Saturday, July 4th, you can go ahead and convert your current subscription to a lifetime subscription at $250 off the regular price. This is ideal for those of you that have been using our products for years now as you will never have to renew again!!

Our special price for a lifetime subscription to Crown Weather PLUS is $350 (normal price is $600). For the price of a 3-1/2 year subscription, you can be ensured that you will be subscribed indefinitely.

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All will be quiet across the Atlantic, Caribbean and the Gulf this weekend with no tropical development expected.

As we get into next week, there remains a very low chance that we could see a tropical system try to develop near the US Southeast coast between the Carolinas and northeast Florida & then be pushed southwestward and westward into the eastern Gulf. That said, more than likely nothing at all will develop & all will stay quiet.

Some of the model guidance & in particular, the Google Deep Mind model is showing about a 20 percent chance or so of tropical development in the area from the Southeast coast to the eastern Gulf. In addition, the European ensemble seems to show about a 10-20 percent chance for tropical development during the first half of next week near the Carolina coastline. Other model guidance such as the Canadian model and the GFS model, however, show no development at all. As I already said, I think more than likely nothing will develop next week. That said, it is still something to keep an eye on, just in case.

What may cause this possible development? It appears that we will have a decaying frontal boundary draped over the southwestern North Atlantic just off of the Southeast US coast. Some of the model guidance are hinting that a large cluster of thunderstorms will dive off of the South Carolina coastline early next week and then try to root itself on the tail end of that decaying front. If this occurs, then this process could promote a low pressure system to form leading to the possibility of development as it heads southwestward and westward towards the Florida Peninsula and then the eastern Gulf.

Even though I think that the chances for tropical development are very low (around 10 percent), the environmental conditions look favorable to promote development. This includes the expectation of low wind shear values and very warm ocean waters to the east of Florida. Because of this, the idea of possible tropical development is something to keep an eye on for next week.

Whether we see tropical development or not next week, one thing that is very highly likely is a surge of tropical moisture will push westward into the Bahamas, through much of the Florida Peninsula and into the northern and eastern Gulf. What this means is that daily pop-up thunderstorms will move from east to west & affect the Bahamas, much of the Florida Peninsula and along the northern Gulf coast during next week. It also means that these daily thunderstorms will likely reach the drought riddled areas along the I-75 corridor and the west coast of Florida, including areas from Tampa to Fort Myers.

FINALLY – I wanted to give everyone a heads-up that I will be running a Fourth Of July Lifetime Subscription Special that’ll begin tomorrow & run through July 4th. This lifetime subscription special will feature a price that is $250 off the regular price of a lifetime subscription. So, instead of paying $600, you can pay $350 for a lifetime subscription & never have to worry about renewing again.

Let your friends, family, coworkers, neighbors or anyone you know about Crown Weather & perhaps they will want to get in on this great deal too. If you’d like to take advantage of this lifetime subscription special now, let me know by emailing me.

The rest of this week through this weekend is expected to be quiet across the Atlantic, Caribbean and the Gulf with no tropical development expected.

As we get into next week, there is a very low chance that we could see a tropical system try to develop near the US Southeast coast & then be pushed westward into the eastern Gulf. That said, more than likely nothing at all will develop & all will stay quiet.

Some of the model guidance such as the GFS model and Google’s Deep Mind model is showing a piece of mid-level energy to push off of the southeast coast of the United States by early next week. This energy then gets left behind as a frontal system decays towards the middle part of next week. Once this occurs, it is anticipated that an upper level high pressure system over the eastern United States will help to push this piece of energy westward across the Florida Peninsula and into the eastern Gulf during the second half of next week within an environment that’s somewhat favorable for development.

It should be noted that the model guidance only show a slight chance of tropical development occurring with the European ensemble guidance only forecasting a 10-20 percent chance for tropical development.

For now, I think that the chances for tropical development near the US Southeast Coast and in the eastern Gulf are very low (probably near 10 percent). That being said, it will be something that I’ll be keeping an eye on, just in case.

FINALLY – I wanted to give everyone a heads-up that I will be running a Fourth Of July Lifetime Subscription Special that’ll begin on Saturday & run through July 4th. This lifetime subscription special will feature a price that is $250 off the regular price of a lifetime subscription. So, instead of paying $600, you can pay $350 for a lifetime subscription & never have to worry about renewing again.

Let your friends, family, coworkers, neighbors or anyone you know about Crown Weather & perhaps they will want to get in on this great deal too. If you’d like to take advantage of this lifetime subscription special now, let me know by emailing me.

All is now quiet across the Atlantic, Caribbean and the Gulf & no tropical development is expected throughout this week. In fact, tropical development looks unlikely right through next week, if not longer.

The Atlantic Basin is being heavily impacted by a large amount of Saharan dust. This, in combination with strengthening El Nino conditions will keep the Atlantic Basin shut down for at least the next couple of weeks, if not longer. Large Saharan dust outbreaks like this are common this time of year & usually peaks during late June and early July before the amount of dust begins to wane towards August.

Another factor that will prevent tropical development for the next 1 to 2 weeks will be strong amounts of wind shear that’ll be present across much of the Atlantic, Caribbean and the Gulf.

Bottom Line Is That the Atlantic, Caribbean and the Gulf should be very quiet in terms of tropical development chances through the end of this month, at least. In fact, the longer range ensemble guidance seems to be pointing towards things remaining quiet through at least mid-July.

We have decided to run a LIFETIME subscription special that’ll go from now through this weekend & end on Monday night, June 22.

From now until 11:59 pm Eastern Time on Monday night, June 22nd, you can go ahead and convert your current subscription to a lifetime subscription at half the normal cost. This is ideal for those of you that have been using our products for years now as you will never have to renew again!!

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It appears that the energy and moisture from Tropical Storm Cristina, which is currently located in the eastern Pacific to the south of Guatemala and El Salvador, will cross Central America on Thursday into Friday. This energy and moisture will then push into the Bay of Campeche by late Friday and then head northwestward towards the coast of eastern and northeastern Mexico during this weekend. While it looks likely that a low pressure system and area of disturbed weather will be located in the Bay of Campeche this weekend, it seems unlikely that it’ll significantly develop due to unfavorable environmental conditions.

A look at the weather forecast guidance reveals that they do seem to point towards there being a window of opportunity for tropical development between Friday night and Sunday morning. In fact, the European ensemble model guidance does show a 60 percent chance for tropical development between Friday and Sunday in the Bay of Campeche and the western Gulf.

Additionally, it’s interesting to note that the Google Deep Mind ensemble model does seem to show the possibility of a more northerly track which would take this system to near the lower and middle Texas coast by early next week. In fact, there are a few ensemble members of Google’s Deep Mind that show development of this system into a tropical storm near the Texas and Louisiana coast by the middle part of next week. While this is a scenario that we should keep in the back of our minds, just in case, it is one that I think has a very low chance of occurring.

My Thinking Is That significant development is unlikely due to the combination of the relatively short time it’ll have over the Bay of Campeche and the western Gulf (36-48 hours) and the unfavorable environmental conditions due to wind shear.

That being said, there is the very real possibility that we could see this system strengthen into a tropical depression or even a low-end tropical storm on Saturday before it moves inland into eastern or northeastern Mexico on Sunday.

It should be mentioned again that the Bay of Campeche is notorious for spinning up quick tropical systems. The topography and the curved shape of the Bay of Campeche can help spin up tropical systems, even when none of the model guidance shows it. We’ve seen it happen many times before in the Bay of Campeche and it’s something to always watch when a disturbance moves into that area. This is one reason why I think that this system could very well spin up into a tropical depression or a low-end tropical storm before it moves inland into eastern or northeastern Mexico.

Whether this system develops or not, it will most definitely enhance the heavy rainfall potential over northeastern Mexico during this weekend and early next week. Locally heavy rainfall from the moisture of this system and already high moisture levels will affect areas near the Gulf Coast from Texas through Louisiana and Mississippi early next week. Also, areas across parts of North Texas, central and eastern Oklahoma and much of Arkansas may see heavy rain from the moisture feed of this system during early next week.

Finally – I wanted to mention that Colorado State University have lowered their forecast numbers for the 2026 Atlantic Hurricane Season. This is due to the expectation of widespread hostile and very unfavorable environmental conditions for tropical development across much of the Atlantic, Caribbean and Gulf.

They are now forecasting 11 named storms, 5 of those storms becoming hurricanes and 2 of those hurricanes becoming major hurricanes.

Additionally, they have identified the following analog years as being a close fit to this hurricane season. They are 1957, 1965, 1987, 1997, 2009 and 2015. Even though all of those years were quiet in terms of numbers, a few of them did have some very impactful hurricanes. They include 1957’s Hurricane Audrey, 1965’s Hurricane Betsy, 1997’s Hurricane Danny and 2015’s Hurricane Joaquin.

The takeaway from this is that the 2026 Atlantic Hurricane Season could very well become the “It only takes one hurricane” type season.

Because this season is likely to be very quiet (that’s obviously a very good thing), we are going to need your help a lot more in getting the word out about us here at Crown Weather. Word of mouth has always been a way for us to advertise Crown Weather & the products we offer.

Unfortunately, the “noise level” on social media has gotten ridiculously high & because of this, our messaging on what we offer at Crown Weather is almost always lost due to the algorithms social media uses to show posts. Hype always gets the likes and hits on social media & that’s something I refuse to do!!

I have always & will always give you a rational and measured weather update. That, unfortunately, no longer gets the views, clicks and likes on social media. This non-hype approach to forecasting has, in turn, hurt our business due to lack of new subscribers.

So, your help in helping advertise Crown Weather would be extremely appreciated.

Other ways you can help us include donations. Also, if you are a company or corporation & would like to help underwrite Crown Weather Services & fund our operations, please contact me.

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I wanted to update you on the slight possibility that we could see tropical development in either the Bay of Campeche or the southern Gulf either later this coming week or during next weekend.

It seems the system that we will need to watch for future tropical mischief is an area of disturbed weather that’s actually located over the eastern Pacific to the south of El Salvador and Guatemala. This disturbed weather is labeled Invest 92-E by the National Hurricane Center.

It seems that some of the model guidance, including the European model and the track model guidance want to pull the energy and moisture of Invest 92-E from the eastern Pacific across Central America and emerging into the Bay of Campeche by about Friday or Saturday. This is a change from what was expected just a couple of days ago & it’s a scenario that can lead to a tropical system in the Bay of Campeche and the southern Gulf. In fact, we most recently saw a tropical system crossover from the eastern Pacific into the Gulf back in 2020.

My latest take on this is that it’s possible that we could see a tropical system form in either the Bay of Campeche or the southern Gulf during the very end of this coming week or during next weekend. That being said, I still think that the chances of this occurring are very low (less than 20 percent). It can be quite a feat for a formed tropical system to cross from the eastern Pacific into the Bay of Campeche and then redevelop into a tropical system.

Now, if (and that is a big if) we do see tropical development in the Bay of Campeche or the southern Gulf late this coming week or next weekend, it’ll likely be quite weak. At this point, it’s just something to keep an eye on, just in case, and is nothing to be overly worried or concerned about.

FINALLY, we need your help in supporting us here at Crown Weather.

To support us, become a Crown Weather PLUS subscriber today!! The link to become a subscriber is https://crownweather.com/cws-plus/ . Your subscriptions and support keep us in business (which has been extremely tough to do lately)!!

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Unfortunately, we need your help again due to ongoing financial difficulties.

I had hoped that we’d see a large influx of new subscribers or renewals of subscriptions due to the start of the hurricane season, but that has not occurred as of yet.

Because of this, we have literally NO MONEY for groceries and our mortgage now needs to be paid. Any help you can send our way will be appreciated more than you will ever know!!

It takes A LOT for me to ask for help & I REALLY hate sending out these emails. Due to having no money, we did not eat at all yesterday & if we don’t come up with funds, we’re looking at another day of no food. Also, if you can, please share this email with anyone that has benefited from our weather updates here at Crown Weather Services & might be able to help.

Finally, if you have a company and would like to underwrite Crown Weather Services & fund our operations, let me know!!

Here’s How To Help Me Out:

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I hope you can understand our situation & know that this account is not hacked. This is a real email being sent by me. I truly appreciate all of the help you’ve provided so far & hope you can still help us if you are able to.

A new tropical weather discussion on the possibility of tropical development in the western Caribbean or the southern & central Gulf will be sent out within the next couple of hours.