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Invest 97-L Located Over The South-Central Caribbean: An area of disturbed weather located to the south of Jamaica over the south-central Caribbean seems to be getting better organized today. The shower and thunderstorm activity associated with Invest 97-L seems to be beginning to wrap around the low pressure center.

Because of this increase in organization, it seems very likely that Invest 97-L will become a tropical depression as soon as sometime on Monday and probably a tropical storm shortly thereafter.

It is also expected that Invest 97-L will head north and then northwestward over the next couple of days bringing this system across Jamaica by Monday night as a tropical storm and then across the Cayman Islands during Tuesday as a tropical storm. Those of you with interests in Jamaica and the Cayman Islands should be ready for tropical storm conditions from Monday through Tuesday. This will include squalls of heavy rain, flooding and very gusty winds.

By late Tuesday night and Wednesday morning, it is looking likely that Invest 97-L will push northwestward across western Cuba and then reach the southeastern Gulf of Mexico late Wednesday as a tropical storm.

Once we get into the later parts of this coming week, there are a lot of different questions on where Invest 97-L will track and how strong it may get in the Gulf of Mexico.

One factor to the potential strength of Invest 97-L in the Gulf of Mexico is going to be the environmental conditions. It currently appears that the environmental conditions will be highly unfavorable for strengthening over the northern Gulf of Mexico while they look to be favorable for strengthening over the southern Gulf of Mexico.

Given this, there are at least a couple of possible scenarios at play:

The upper level weather pattern will cause Invest 97-L to be steered to the northwest by a strong high pressure ridge over Florida. An upper level trough of low pressure over the southwestern United States will cause that high pressure ridge to actually strengthen by late this week.

On one hand, if Invest 97-L tracks quickly in forward speed leading to the storm outrunning the strengthening high pressure system. In this scenario, Invest 97-L could approach the Florida Panhandle and Big Bend area of Florida late this week. That said, the strong wind shear values over the northern Gulf of Mexico would cause significant weakening of any system approaching the Panhandle and Big Bend areas of Florida.

The second scenario is for a slowly moving system to track northwestward into the central Gulf of Mexico by late this coming week where it would run headlong into strong wind shear and likely weaken and dissipate before reaching the northern Gulf Coast.

The main takeaway from all of this is that the uncertainty with where Invest 97-L might go in the Gulf of Mexico and because of this, all interests in the Gulf of Mexico and in particular along the northern and eastern Gulf Coast should closely monitor the latest with Invest 97-L.

Model Track Forecast:

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Area Of Disturbed Weather Expected To Form Near The Northern Leeward Islands By The Middle Part Of This Week: If Invest 97-L isn’t going to be a problem enough, it does look like there is the likelihood that we’ll see a separate area of disturbed weather form near the northern Leeward Islands around the middle part of this week.

This is going to be an area of disturbed weather that’ll need to be watched closely as it’ll probably head westward and be caught underneath that high pressure ridge. Because of this, it seems plausible it’ll be steered into the southern Bahamas by about Friday or Saturday and then potentially head for the area of the northwestern Caribbean near western Cuba and the Yucatan Peninsula around next Sunday and next Monday.

For now, this is a possible system that might need to be watched late this coming week and next weekend, especially for those of you over the northern Caribbean Islands and the Bahamas.

The next tropical weather discussion will be issued on Monday Afternoon.

Because there are no significant changes to the forecast of the slowly developing area of disturbed weather located over the southwestern Caribbean, I am sending out this fairly quick update rather than a full write up.

A broad area of low pressure and its associated area of disturbed weather located over the southwestern Caribbean has been designated Invest 97-L by the National Hurricane Center. Invest 97-L is expected to slowly organize and develop over the next couple of days as it heads northward from the southwestern Caribbean to about the area near Jamaica by Monday.

I still think that we’ll see Invest 97-L become a tropical depression by about Monday when its located near Jamaica and then strengthen into a tropical storm (its name would be Rafael) possibly by about Tuesday as it heads in the northwestern Caribbean.

It is looking more likely that Invest 97-L will move into the southern Gulf of Mexico by late Wednesday as possibly a tropical storm. Beyond this though, the forecast track and strength of this system is still quite uncertain. Model guidance show a couple of possible scenarios depending on how the upper level weather pattern evolves.

One scenario is for the high pressure ridge over Florida to push to the east allowing for Invest 97-L to move north and northeastward towards Florida late next week.

The other scenario is for the high pressure ridge to hold firm over Florida leading to this system to push into the central and western Gulf of Mexico late next week.

One thing to note about about scenarios is that it appears that the wind shear values should be fairly strong leading to Invest 97-L to not be a very strong system and in fact, it probably will weaken as it pushes into the southern Gulf of Mexico due to unfavorable conditions.

My recommendation to those of you in the Gulf of Mexico is to keep close tabs on the latest with Invest 97-L. Fortunately we have plenty of time to keep an eye on it and I wouldn’t stress or overly worry about it.

For those of you in the western and central Caribbean, including the Yucatan Peninsula, Belize, Cuba, the Cayman Islands and Jamaica, I recommend that you should closely watch this system as it could bring you heavy rain and wind impacts next week. Just know that I will keep you posted on the latest.

Tropical Storm Oscar: Oscar is still located over eastern Cuba as of this afternoon where it’s producing extremely heavy rainfall. In fact, up to 20 inches of rain have fallen in some parts of eastern Cuba and it’s still raining.

It is expected that Oscar will push off of the coast of northeastern Cuba by later today. By tonight and during Tuesday, it is expected that Oscar will move right over the southeastern Bahamas before it heads out into the open Atlantic and be absorbed by a large upper level trough of low pressure.

The main hazard with Oscar is going to be the additional heavy rain that’ll occur over eastern Cuba through tonight and Tuesday. Flash flooding is extremely likely.

Squalls with gusty winds and heavy rainfall is also expected across the southeastern Bahamas through tonight and Tuesday.

The next tropical weather discussion will be issued on Tuesday Afternoon where I’ll be updating you on the latest concerning potential tropical development in the western Caribbean at the very end of this month.

Hurricane Oscar: Oscar is still a tiny, compact hurricane and is expected to make landfall in eastern Cuba this afternoon. Reconnaissance aircraft are finding the hurricane has about a 15-20 mile wide eye along with 80-85 mph maximum winds.

Oscar is likely to push west-southwestward into eastern Cuba through Monday and this interaction with the mountainous terrain of this area of Cuba will likely cause Oscar to weaken quite a bit.

It still looks like that a deep trough of low pressure will pull Oscar to the northeast away from Cuba on Monday night but will cause it move across the southeastern Bahamas bringing tropical storm conditions during Tuesday.

Ultimately Oscar will be absorbed by that upper level trough by Wednesday and Thursday as it heads northeastward into the open Atlantic.

Forecast Impacts:
Wind: Tropical storm conditions are expected to affect much of eastern Cuba from this afternoon right through Monday. A small area of northeastern Cuba may see hurricane conditions later this afternoon.

For the southeastern Bahamas, it appears that tropical storm conditions can be expected throughout the day on Tuesday.

Rainfall: Total rainfall amounts of 5 to 10 inches are expected across eastern Cuba over the next couple of days or so.

For the southeastern Bahamas, it appears that 3 to 5 inches of rainfall can be expected from Monday until Wednesday.

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Elsewhere: I still think that we’re going to have to really watch the Caribbean and in particular the western and central Caribbean for possible tropical development at the end of this month into the first part of November.

The environmental conditions and the background state both look to turn favorable for potential tropical development and it seems that the model guidance are now beginning to really show this potential.

The latest GFS model seems to be pointing towards a “wrong way Lenny” type setup with a tropical system forming over the western Caribbean around October 30 and then moving east-northeastward into the central Caribbean by November 1. The GFS model then forecasts impacts to Hispaniola, Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands during the November 1-3 time period.

While the Canadian model only goes out to October 30, it does seem to show a tropical system forming on October 30 over the western Caribbean.

The European ensemble model certainly shows the western Caribbean waking up at the very end of this month with quite a few members forecasting a tropical system moving from the western Caribbean around October 28-30 to possibly the area around Cuba, Hispaniola and the Bahamas around November 1-2.

This all means that I do think that we’re going to have a tropical system in the western Caribbean that’s going to have to be really watched near the end of this month.

It should also be noted that any tropical system in the Caribbean during the end of this month and the start of November likely will not be a threat to the US Gulf Coast or the US Atlantic Coast.

Areas that may need to be concerned with this tropical system look to be the Yucatan Peninsula, Belize, Central America, Cuba, Hispaniola, Puerto Rico, the Virgin Islands, the Turks and Caicos Islands and the Bahamas.

The next tropical weather discussion will be issued on Monday Afternoon.

Tropical Storm Nadine: Nadine has just made landfall very near Belize City, Belize as a 60 mph tropical storm. The tropical storm is expected to bring heavy rain and tropical storm conditions to Belize and the Yucatan Peninsula right through Sunday.

Rainfall: Nadine will produce heavy rainfall across northern Belize, northern Guatemala, and southern Mexican states from Quintana Roo westward to Veracruz. Total rainfall amounts of 4 to 8 inches can be expected with isolated amounts of up to 12 inches possible throughout this weekend.

Wind: Tropical storm conditions with wind gusts in the 40-60 mph range can be expected across the eastern Yucatan Peninsula and northern Belize throughout this afternoon.

Coastal Flooding: Nadine is also expected to produce minor coastal flooding across eastern Belize and the eastern Yucatan Peninsula this afternoon.

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Tropical Storm Oscar: Just waking up to see Invest 94-L quickly developing into Tropical Storm Oscar this morning was a huge surprise.

Satellite imagery as of midday indicates that Oscar has a tight circulation and is producing 40 mph winds and because of this, it has been upgraded to a tropical storm.

Forecast Track: Oscar is expected to push west and even a little west-southwestward throughout the rest of this weekend putting the storm very near the northeastern coast of Cuba by Sunday night.

By early next week, it is likely that an upper level trough located just off of the East Coast of the United States will yank Oscar the northeast as we get into Monday night and Tuesday leading to a track that takes the storm right over the southeastern Bahamas during Tuesday. Beyond this, Oscar is likely to head northeastward out into the open Atlantic. It is possible though that the storm could affect Bermuda with gusty winds and heavy rain on Thursday.

Forecast Strength: Oscar will continue to find itself in a favorable environment for some additional strengthening through Sunday. Because of this, the storm may end up peaking at a 50-60 mph tropical storm by Sunday night and Monday when it’s near the northeastern coast of Cuba.

Beyond this, increasing amounts of wind shear will lead to some weakening of the storm as it crosses over the southeastern Bahamas on Tuesday. Still though, it’ll still be a 45-50 mph tropical storm when it moves over the southeastern Bahamas.

That upper level trough of low pressure off of the East Coast of the United States will absorb Oscar by the middle part of next week leading to the storm to dissipate.

UPDATE!!! – I just saw that reconnaissance aircraft are finding that Oscar is much stronger than what satellite imagery presented. It seems that Oscar is actually near hurricane strength with 70 mph winds and a central pressure of 991 millibars. Additionally, reconnaissance aircraft are also finding a 3 mile wide pinhole eye.

It’s not out of the realm of possibilities that Oscar could not only become a hurricane within the next several hours, but also is likely to continue strengthening at a fairly quick rate.

Because of this, it’s looking likely that Oscar will bring hurricane conditions to parts of the Turks and Caicos Islands and the northeastern coast of Cuba during Sunday. Those of you in northeastern Cuba and across the Turks and Caicos should be ready for hurricane conditions during the day on Sunday.

Also, those of you in the southeastern Bahamas should also closely monitor the progress of Oscar as it’s now possible that it could bring hurricane conditions to you on Monday.

The next tropical weather discussion will be issued on Sunday Afternoon.

Invest 94-L: There’s the possibility that an area of low pressure (Invest 94-L) now located over the central Tropical Atlantic near 45 West Longitude might try to develop into a tropical depression as it passes very near and possibly over the northern Leeward Islands late this week.

Right now though, Invest 94-L is located in an environment that’s not favorable for development due to dry air affecting it. That said, it does look like Invest 94-L will move into an environment that’s more favorable for development in a couple of days from now. Because of this, it’s possible that we could see this system organize into a tropical depression or perhaps even a tropical storm by about Thursday or Friday as it passes near or just north of the Leeward Islands.

I want to emphasize that there are no indications that Invest 94-L will become very strong and more than likely it’ll peak at a low end tropical storm. Also, Invest 94-L poses no threat to the United States mainland.

So, I think that we’re looking at Invest 94-L possibly becoming a depression or low end tropical storm and affecting the far northern Leeward Islands on Friday and then the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico on Saturday. Hispaniola, Eastern Cuba, the Turks and Caicos Islands, the southeastern Bahamas and Jamaica may then be affected by this system this weekend where squally weather can be expected.

Beyond this, it is anticipated that Invest 94-L will hit a wall of very strong wind shear over the western Caribbean and because of this, it’ll likely weaken and dissipate later this weekend and early next week.

The main threat from Invest 94-L will be heavy rainfall and squally weather across the northern Leeward Islands on Friday and then across the Virgin Islands, Puerto Rico, Haiti, the Dominican Republic, the Turks and Caicos Islands, the southeastern Bahamas and Jamaica throughout this weekend.

Once again, I want to strongly emphasize that Invest 94-L IS NOT any threat at all to the Gulf of Mexico or the US coastline.

Model Track Forecast:

The next tropical weather discussion will be issued on Thursday Afternoon.

Hurricane Milton: Milton is on its way out into the open Atlantic after exiting Florida’s East Coast this morning. The hurricane has left a trail of surge damage, wind damage, over 3 million power outages and flooding rainfall in its wake. It is expected that Milton will become a non-tropical storm system and race well south of Bermuda by late tomorrow.

Milton’s track just south of Tampa Bay spared the populated Tampa/St. Pete coastline catastrophic storm surge and instead pushed the water out of the Bay. That said, the southerly track did put the Tampa Bay area on the hurricane’s windy and rainy side.

Milton produced wind gusts of 100 to 110 mph from Tampa Bay southward to Sarasota and Venice, including wind gusts to 107 mph in Venice Beach, 105 mph at Egmont Channel west of Tampa Bay, 102 mph in Sarasota and 97 mph in Tampa. These very strong winds caused extensive damage across Tampa-St. Petersburg including downing construction cranes and shredding the roof off Tropicana Field in St. Petersburg.

Additionally, Milton produced some extremely heavy rainfall amounts across the Tampa area with St. Petersburg recording 18.43 inches of rainfall with 5 inches of that falling in just one hour.

The area from Orlando to the east-central Florida coast also received some very heavy rainfall throughout the overnight hours with 8 to 12 inches of rain occurring in Orange and Seminole Counties and 12-16 inches of rainfall falling in parts of Volusia County. Highest wind gusts in east Central Florida include 86 mph in Orlando and 87 mph in Daytona Beach, and mostly in the 70s otherwise.

The worst of Milton’s devastating storm surge occurred along the barrier islands stretching from Longboat Key and Siesta Key west of Sarasota-Bradenton southward to Manasota Key and Boca Grande south of Venice.

A destructive storm surge flooding also pushed into Charlotte Harbor and up the Peace River, sending major flooding into parts of Punta Gorda.

Already, the pictures and videos I’ve seen from Manasota Key and Englewood Beach reveals that both the wind and surge damage is extremely extensive and catastrophic in some areas.

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Western Caribbean Tropical Development Is A Possibility Late Next Week: Unfortunately, we are far from being done with hurricane season as it appears we may see another round of tropical development occur in the western Caribbean towards the later parts of next week.

It appears that the weather pattern is going to be highly favorable for development during the second half of next week with a big high pressure ridge building over the Eastern United States. The reason why this is favorable is due to the fact that you oftentimes see low pressure forming to the south and southwest of these high pressure ridges and the placement of this low pressure system would end up being over the western Caribbean.

Some of the model guidance are beginning to show this potential with the GFS model forecasting a Yucatan Peninsula threat next weekend followed by a track into the Gulf of Mexico. The ICON model is now showing the possibility of western Caribbean by late next week as well. The other model guidance haven’t jumped onboard yet with the forecast of tropical development, but given the potential favorable weather pattern in the western Caribbean I suspect they will eventually.

Bottom Line Is That I do think that we’ll probably see a tropical system form in the northwestern Caribbean late next week that becomes a tropical storm and perhaps even a hurricane. Where it ends up going remains to be seen, but it is something that I’ll be keeping a very close eye on. That said, this is something I don’t want you to be overly worried or stressed out about – it’s just something to keep an eye on.

The next tropical weather discussion will be issued on Friday Afternoon.

Hurricane Milton: Milton made landfall in the Siesta Key & Sarasota areas at about 8:30 pm EDT this evening as a 120 mph Category 3 hurricane. A 10 foot storm surge came ashore in Sarasota while the water was pushed out of Tampa Bay due to offshore winds. How close was Milton from causing a catastrophic 10-15 foot storm surge in Tampa Bay? Just 20 miles, that’s how close it came for Tampa.

Further down the coast, a 5 to 10 foot storm surge is currently occurring in Venice and Fort Myers and this surge will be slow to recede due to the high tide now pushing in. There will likely be very extensive damage in Sarasota, Venice and Longboat Key when all is said and done.

Extremely heavy rain continue to occur in the Tampa Metro area and has now spread into areas from Lakeland to Orlando. Storm rain totals of 17 inches have been recorded in St. Petersburg and over 10 inches of rain has occurred all around Tampa.

Additional heavy to extremely heavy rain is expected to occur throughout the rest of tonight along and north of I-4. Flash Flood Emergencies are now in effect for Tampa where catastrophic flooding has occurred and will continue to occur. I expect to see additional Flash Flood Emergencies be issued for other areas along I-4, including Orlando and Deltona as severe flash flooding is likely.

Finally, tropical storm force to hurricane force winds will continue to occur along I-4 for the next several hours and will begin to abate very late tonight.

More updates will be sent out as needed.

Milton is now approaching the West Coast of Florida late this afternoon and it is looking increasingly more likely that eye of the hurricane is going to move extremely close to, if not right into Tampa Bay. We are about 3-4 hours away from landfall, which could occur as soon as 8-9 pm this evening. This means that weather conditions are likely to rapidly deteriorate from here on out across much of the Florida Peninsula.

At this point, I expect landfall to occur in the area between Sarasota and Tampa Bay about 8-10 pm this evening as a 105-115 mph hurricane.

The worst of the surge and wind is expected to impact the area from Tampa Bay to Venice with a significant surge expected to the south including Fort Myers and Naples.

The storm surge is now coming into Fort Myers due to the winds now turning onshore and driving that surge into the coast. I expect the same thing to occur in the next few hours further up the coast, including Venice, Sarasota, Bradenton and Tampa, so that by 9-10 pm this evening there will be extremely damaging storm surge occurring everywhere along the west-central and southwest Florida coast.

One thing that I want to strongly advise against – If the water exits Tampa Bay with the offshore wind, DO NOT go into or near the Bay to watch it. This is going to much different than Irma and Ian in that it’s looking likely that a wall of water up to 10-15 feet high will come rushing into the Bay once the eye of the hurricane lifts north of Tampa and that onshore wind kicks in. You will be trapped if you do this.

Hurricane force winds connected to the eye wall of the hurricane are about to push onshore near Sarasota and Bradenton within the next couple of hours and these hurricane force winds will then spread into the Tampa area soon after. Things are about to get very nasty very soon. Now is the time where you need to shelter in place and stay wherever you are right now along the West-Central and Southwest Florida coast.

Milton seems to have caused one of Florida’s most significant tornado outbreaks today. The tornado threat is now occurring along the east coast of Florida from Palm Bay to West Palm Beach and this should end over the next few hours. Additional tornadoes are possible within the eye wall of the hurricane as it moves inland tonight.

Areas near and north of I-4 are likely to see additional heavy rainfall with up to one foot of total rainfall expected tonight. Flash flooding and river flooding is extremely likely.

Hurricane Milton: It appears that increasing wind shear associated with a trough of low pressure located to the north of Milton is beginning to affect the hurricane. This has led to a more lopsided look on satellite imagery as dry air is trying to push in from the west. That said, reconnaissance aircraft are still finding Milton to be a powerful Category 4 hurricane as of early this afternoon.

Milton is now tracking to the northeast after its move to the nearly due east last night. The question now becomes where exactly will Milton make landfall on Florida’s West Coast.

The latest model guidance are pretty consistent in forecasting a landfall very near or to the south of Tampa Bay late tonight. More specifically, the hurricane track model consensus forecasts a landfall near Sarasota; the latest GFS and Canadian models forecasts a landfall near Bradenton close to midnight tonight; the most recent ICON model forecast shows a track right up Tampa Bay right into downtown Tampa just before midnight tonight; The last European model run is showing a landfall right into Tampa Bay.

So, will Milton bring a catastrophic storm surge to Tampa Bay? It’s possible. Is it also possible that Tampa Bay misses a disaster from Milton? It’s also possible. I cannot stress how extremely close the eye of Milton will get to Tampa and it’s really going to be a game of inches. One or two little wobbles in the track will mean the difference between a track south of Tampa and a track right into Tampa Bay – it’s that close!!

In terms of storm surge, a landfall south of Tampa would spare the Tampa Bay area the worst coastal flooding, but would direct a catastrophic storm surge towards Sarasota, Venice, North Port and Charlotte Harbor.

On the other hand, a track into Tampa and St. Pete would push a catastrophic storm surge into Tampa Bay.

My Thinking As Of Early This Afternoon Is for Milton to make landfall very near Bradenton and Sarasota near or just a little after midnight as a 125-130 mph borderline Category 3-4 hurricane. That said, I am not at all ruling out a Tampa Bay direct hit and in fact, the latest movement of the hurricane has been on a north-northeast track and we need to see that turn back to the northeast and east-northeast to avoid a Tampa Bay direct landfall.

This means that areas including Tampa, St. Pete, Bradenton, Sarasota, Anna Maria Island, Longboat Key, Siesta Key, Venice and Englewood are all squarely in the “line of fire” and have a high likelihood of seeing a direct hit from Milton.

Forecast Impacts:
Storm Surge: As I just mentioned, it’s still too much of a close call for Tampa Bay to say whether it’ll be hit by a 10-15 foot storm surge or be missed due to a track to the south of the Bay. We are talking literally a few wobbles in the track that makes the difference between little or no surge or a catastrophic surge for Tampa Bay. These little wobbles will not be able to be predicted until later this afternoon or this evening when we’re just a few hours from landfall.

For those areas south of Tampa Bay from Sarasota through Fort Myers and Naples, it’s almost guaranteed that a devastating and catastrophic storm surge of 10 to 15 feet will occur. This also includes Venice, Longboat Key, Englewood and even Charlotte Harbor.

Now turning to coastal parts of east-central and northeast Florida and southeast Georgia, it appears that areas from about Titusville and points north to Savannah will see a 3 to 6 foot storm surge throughout the day Thursday. This area also includes Brunswick, Jacksonville, St. Augustine, Daytona Beach and the St. Johns River.

Wind: The area that’s going to have the greatest threat for extremely damaging hurricane force winds with gusts of well over 110-120 mph will be an area that includes Brooksville, Palm Harbor, Clearwater, Lakeland, Tampa, St. Pete, Longboat Key, Sarasota, Englewood and Venice throughout tonight. The strongest winds, by far, will occur on the northern side of the storm as its making landfall.

As for Central, East-Central and Northeast Florida, hurricane force wind gusts on the order of 75-95 mph can be expected during the height of the storm late tonight through Thursday morning. This includes Orlando, all of the Space Coast, Daytona Beach and St. Augustine.

As for North-Central Florida, peak wind gusts of 40-60 mph can be expected early Thursday morning.

Tornadoes: Bands of heavy rain and thunderstorms continues to rotate into the Florida Peninsula out ahead of Milton and numerous supercells have been embedded within these bands of storms. Some of these supercells have had a history of producing tornadoes across inland areas of South Florida, as well as across Southwest Florida

The tornado threat throughout this afternoon and tonight is expected to continue to be quite significant across parts of Central and South Florida and includes Sarasota, Fort Myers, Naples, Vero Beach, Titusville and Orlando. The environmental conditions across this part of the Florida Peninsula is highly favorable for tornadoes. In fact, the tornado threat still looks unusually high for a tropical cyclone event. Be aware of the tornado threat and be ready to take immediate shelter if Tornado Warnings are issued across Central and South Florida as some of the tornadoes could be on the strong side in intensity.

Heavy Rain: There continues to be a very substantial threat for inland flooding from heavy rainfall along and north of the I-4 corridor where 10 to 15 inches of rainfall can be expected. This will lead to flash flooding of low-lying areas as well as river flooding problems.

I will continue to cover Milton extensively until the threat and impacts of the hurricane are done. This means that you should look for many more frequent updates from me.