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A major and probably historic winter storm is expected to impact much of the Deep South states of eastern, central and southeastern Texas, all of Louisiana, central and southern Mississippi, central and southern Alabama, much of Georgia, the Florida Panhandle, north and northeast Florida and much of the Carolinas.

An area of low pressure is expected to take shape off of the lower Texas coast on Monday night. Gulf of Mexico moisture will push into an Arctic air mass leading to a icy mix of snow, sleet and freezing rain to occur across much of east, central and southeast Texas during late Monday night.

This low pressure system will then cross from west to east across the Gulf of Mexico during the day on Tuesday. Strong amounts of energy and quite a bit of moisture will push into the central Gulf Coast where that Arctic air mass will be located. Because of this, moderate to locally heavy snow is expected in an area from the northern suburbs of Houston eastward through southern Louisiana and southern Mississippi during the day on Tuesday. This snow will move into southern Alabama, the western Florida Panhandle and central Georgia by Tuesday evening.

A swath of freezing rain with significant amounts of ice is expected to move over northern Florida and southern Georgia during Tuesday night.

Snow is also expected along the Georgia and Carolina coastlines on Tuesday night, which will last until Wednesday morning.

This is likely to be an exceptionally rare snowfall for many across the Deep South. The most snow ever recorded in New Orleans in modern history was 2.7″ back in 1963. Mobile hasn’t seen more than about 3 inches of snow in living memory. This snowfall event is likely to rival those historic snowfalls & will probably be a generational winter storm for much of the Deep South.

Snow amounts of 3 to 6 inches are expected across an area from the eastern Houston suburbs through the Beaumont area through much of southern Louisiana, including Lake Charles, Lafayette, Baton Rouge and New Orleans through southern Mississippi, including Hattiesburg and Gulfport.

Snow amounts of 1 to 3 inches are expected for many across the Deep South outside of the 3 to 6 inch snowfall area. Areas that are likely to receive 1 to 3 inches of snow accumulation include all of the Houston Metro, San Antonio, Austin, Jackson, Birmingham, Montgomery, Mobile, Pensacola, Tallahassee, Atlanta, Savannah, Charleston, Myrtle Beach and Wilmington.

Forecast Snow Amounts:

Ice is also expected to be a huge problem for parts of north Florida and southeastern Georgia where one tenth to one quarter of an inch of ice from freezing rain is expected on Tuesday night. This is more than enough ice to lead to tree damage and widespread power outages.

Forecast Ice Accumulations:

I cannot emphasize enough how big of a deal this is going to be for those of you in the Deep South. This is going to be an extremely high-impact and extremely disruptive storm for the region.

DO NOT travel for at least several days (from early Tuesday morning until at least early Friday) due to the expectation of extremely hazardous road conditions for an extended period of time due to snow, ice and temperatures then remaining below freezing. Airport delays and cancellations are likely on Tuesday, Wednesday and maybe even Thursday.

A significant to major winter storm is expected across parts of the Deep South beginning late Monday night across eastern, central and southeastern Texas, then spreading across Louisiana, Mississippi, Alabama, Georgia, the Florida Panhandle and north and northeast Florida on Tuesday. The Carolinas will then be impacted by this winter storm on Tuesday night. This storm will then exit into the Atlantic during Wednesday.

A corridor of heavy snow with amounts of 2 to possibly as much as 6-8 inches can be expected in the area near and north of I-10 and near and south of I-20.

Freezing rain with significant ice amounts of up to one tenth of an inch can be expected right along and just south of the I-10 corridor.

Major traffic and travel disruptions can be expected on areas roads across eastern, central and southeastern Texas, much of Louisiana, central and southern Mississippi, central and southern Alabama, the Florida Panhandle, northern and northeastern Florida, much of Georgia and much of the Carolinas. Flight cancellations and flight delays are also expected.

Tree damage and power outages are also likely with this winter storm, especially where significant ice accumulations are expected. These power outages could lead to a lack of heat in affected areas, which could prove to be a life threatening situation given the expectation of widespread sub-freezing temperatures along much of the Gulf Coast throughout much of the week.

To Sum It Up –

Some Cities In The Deep South That Will See Significant Snow Amounts Of 2 To 5 Inches With Local Amounts Of 6-8 Inches: Houston, Beaumont, Shreveport, Lake Charles, Lafayette, Baton Rouge, New Orleans, Jackson, Meridian, Hattiesburg, Gulfport, Birmingham, Montgomery, Mobile, Pensacola, Macon, Savannah, Charleston, Myrtle Beach, Wilmington, Raleigh & Charlotte.

Some Cities In The Deep South That Will Receive Significant Ice Amounts (Some Of These Places May See Both Significant Snow AND Ice Accumulations): Victoria, Houston, Beaumont, Lake Charles, Lafayette, New Orleans, Houma, Pensacola, Tallahassee, Jacksonville, Valdosta, Savannah, Charleston, Myrtle Beach & Wilmington.

One thing that I am completely sure about & that is some FRIGID COLD AIR is expected across the entire Deep South throughout much of next week. This is the type of cold that will cause your pipes to bust & because of this, I strongly urge everyone as far south as the Gulf Coast to winterize your homes & be prepared for multiple nights of well below freezing temperatures.

High temperatures in the 30s are expected as far south as the I-10 corridor from southeast Texas to the Florida Panhandle with below freezing high temperatures expected as far south as the I-20 corridor from Louisiana through Mississippi, Alabama and Georgia on Monday, Tuesday and Wednesday.

More importantly is the expectation that a very hard freeze with nighttime low temperatures in the 20s as far south as the I-10 corridor from southeast Texas to north Florida and nighttime low temperatures in the teens are expected as far south as the I-20 corridor from central and east Texas through Louisiana, Mississippi, Alabama and Georgia on Sunday night, Monday night, Tuesday night, Wednesday night and Thursday night. That’s going to be 4 nights of temperatures cold enough to freeze up water pipes leading them to break & cause untold amounts of water damage. Protect those water pipes even for those of you right along the Gulf Coast. This is going to be some seriously cold temperatures.

To make things even more miserable, strong northerly winds will likely produce dangerous wind chill temperatures of between 5 and 15 above zero as far south as the Gulf coasts of Texas, Louisiana, Mississippi, Alabama, the Florida Panhandle and north Florida on Monday, Tuesday and Wednesday mornings.

Now to talk about the potential for Snow & Ice Along The I-10 Corridor For Tuesday Into Wednesday. The potential seems to be increasing for at least some snow, sleet and freezing rain to occur right along the Gulf Coast from southeast Texas to the Florida Panhandle beginning on Tuesday and continuing into Wednesday.

Before I get too much more into the forecast, I want to caution this by saying that the snow and ice forecast for next week is extremely uncertain. This means don’t get excited, concerned or worried yet. Forecasting a snow and ice storm in the Deep South is incredibly hard to do. A ton of different factors need to come together perfectly to produce a snowstorm or ice storm in the Deep South. Yes, the potential is definitely there for some snow to occur, but there is too much uncertainty right now to tell you whether it’s going to be a couple of snowflakes in the air or a full-blown snowstorm for the I-10 corridor.

A piece of energy is expected to push across the southwestern United States late this weekend into early next week and push into the area near the Gulf Coast by late Monday. What happens with this piece of energy is going to depend on how strong the push of Arctic air is by early next week.

It’s possible that the Arctic air push may not be as robust as some guidance are suggesting leading to low pressure to ride across areas of the Deep South just inland from the Gulf Coast. This would lead to areas near and north of I-20 in Louisiana, Mississippi, Alabama and Georgia to see accumulating snow and ice on Tuesday into Wednesday with mostly all rain as you head south towards I-10.

The other scenario and it’s the one that I’m leaning towards for my forecast is for the Arctic air to be very robust and strong leading to a suppressed storm track. This would lead to the low pressure system to track eastward across the central and southern Gulf of Mexico causing a winter storm with mostly all snow to occur across much of the Texas coast (including Houston), central and southern Louisiana (including Lake Charles, Baton Rouge & New Orleans), southern Mississippi (including Gulfport), southern Alabama (including Mobile), southern Georgia (including Valdosta, Waycross, Brunswick & Savannah), the Florida Panhandle (including Pensacola & Tallahassee), the Piedmont and coastal parts of South Carolina (including Charleston & Myrtle Beach) and southeastern and eastern parts of North Carolina (including Wilmington) on Tuesday and Tuesday night. It should be pointed that the weather model guidance are pointing towards 1 to 2 inches of snow accumulation for much of the I-10 corridor from southeast Texas through southern Louisiana, southern Mississippi, southern Alabama, the Florida Panhandle and north and northeast Florida.

That all said, this is an extremely low confidence with an extremely high amount of uncertainty, but the weather pattern certainly looks extremely “interesting” for the Gulf Coast early next week if you’re looking for a winter storm.

My advice to you is to keep up-to-date with what I will continue to post in the coming days in terms of updates on next week’s frigid cold & winter weather chances. Many more updates will be sent out as needed in the coming days.

Arctic air is expected to affect much of the southern and eastern United States throughout all of next week. Below freezing high temperatures are expected to push as far south as central Texas, northern Louisiana, northern and central Mississippi, northern Alabama and northern Georgia for at least a couple of days next week (most likely Monday and Tuesday). A hard freeze at night looks likely as far south as the entire Gulf coasts of Texas, Louisiana, Mississippi and Alabama and also as far south as the Florida Panhandle and far northern Florida on every night next week. To make things even more miserable, strong northerly winds will likely produce dangerous wind chill temperatures on Sunday, Monday and Tuesday across much of the Deep South. All-in-all, this will very likely be a pipe bursting type cold for many across the Deep South states of Texas, Arkansas, Louisiana, Mississippi, Alabama, the Florida Panhandle and Georgia.

Turning to the possibility of snow and ice next week across parts of the Deep South. There are indications in the weather model guidance and the overall look of the weather pattern that a couple of storm system will push across the Deep South right after the Arctic front moves through. What is extremely uncertain right now is how strong each storm system will be and what sort of a track they might take. What is looking gradually more possible is that if they do develop, there will be more than enough cold air in place to produce snow and ice across much of Texas, all of Louisiana, all of Mississippi, much of Alabama, much of Georgia, parts of the Florida Panhandle and all of the Carolinas.

All three major models of the weather forecast guidance suite are all at least strongly hinting at snow and ice to occur in some parts of the Deep South states of Texas, Louisiana, Mississippi, Alabama, Georgia, the Florida Panhandle and the Carolinas. What they do not agree on is where exactly geographically the snow and ice will occur. Some guidance has a majority of the snow and ice occurring across the northern parts of Louisiana, Mississippi, Alabama and Georgia. Other guidance has a pretty significant snow and ice storm as far south as the northern Gulf Coast and even into parts of northern Florida.

That all said, there is no reason at all to get overly worried or concerned & raid the grocery store. The threat for winter weather is still about one week away and tons can and likely will change between now and then. My advice is to keep up-to-date with what I will be posting in the coming days in terms of updates on next week’s weather. Many more updates will be sent out as needed in the coming days.

An area of low pressure is expected to form by Thursday night near the upper Texas coast. The moisture and energy associated with this low pressure system will push into an Arctic air mass now in place across much of the southern United States leading to the development of widespread snow and ice starting across north-central Texas and parts of southern and southeastern Oklahoma during Thursday. This snow and ice will spread as far east as the western and central Carolinas and parts of the Mid-Atlantic States by Friday into Saturday.

On the northern end of this wintry precipitation, snow can be expected from north-central and northeast Texas and southern and southeastern Oklahoma by Thursday afternoon. This snow is then expected to expand into central and northern Arkansas during Thursday night and then into much of Kentucky, much of Tennessee, far northern parts of Mississippi, far northern parts of Alabama and far northern parts of Georgia during the day on Friday. This snow will then affect far northwestern parts of South Carolina, parts of central and western North Carolina and much of the Mid-Atlantic states during Friday night and Saturday.

For many this will be a very impactful snowfall event that’ll affect areas including Dallas-Fort Worth, the Ozarks, Memphis, Nashville, Tupelo, Huntsville and Charlotte. Upwards of 3 to 7 inches of snow accumulation can be expected from areas across far north Texas and southeastern Oklahoma through central and northern Arkansas and across the Tennessee Valley.

Just to the south, freezing rain and sleet will produce extremely hazardous travel conditions starting across central and east Texas by Thursday afternoon. This freezing rain and sleet will then spread across southern Arkansas during Thursday night before affecting central and northern Mississippi, central and northern Alabama, central and northern Georgia during Friday and finally across central and northwestern South Carolina and much of central North Carolina on Friday night into Saturday. Extremely hazardous travel conditions are expected across all of these areas as ice accumulations of up to one tenth of an inch is anticipated.

Winter Storm Threat From The Central Plains & Lower Ohio Valley To The Mid-Atlantic States: An area of low pressure is now taking shape over eastern Colorado this afternoon. This low pressure system is expected to move in an easterly direction reaching areas around southwestern Missouri on Sunday afternoon, then the Ohio Valley Sunday night and finally the Mid-Atlantic states during Monday. This storm system is expected to produce a significant winter storm this weekend into early next week from the central Plains to the Ohio Valley and the Mid-Atlantic states. Severe traffic delays and traffic disruptions are expected with this storm.

Widespread heavy snow will develop this afternoon across the central Plains states and then spread eastward to areas near and north of I-70 in central and northern Missouri, central Illinois, central and southern Indiana and central and southern Ohio during Sunday. This could end up being the heaviest snowfall for some areas in over a decade.

During Sunday night and especially on Monday, moderate to heavy snow can be expected across southern Pennsylvania, central and southern New Jersey, much of West Virginia, central and northern Virginia, all of Maryland and all of Delaware.

Additionally, blizzard conditions are expected across the central Plains states during the day on Sunday. Wind gusts of over 35 mph will combine with moderate to heavy snow to create blizzard conditions beginning on Sunday morning and continuing through the day on Sunday across northern parts of Oklahoma through much of Kansas and into southern parts of Nebraska. Whiteout conditions will make travel extremely hazardous, with impassable roads and a high risk of motorists becoming stranded.

Significant icing from freezing rain is also expected from this storm across the middle Mississippi Valley to the Ohio Valley during Sunday. Freezing rain with ice accumulations of over one quarter of an inch can be expected on Sunday across eastern Kansas, southern Missouri, southern Illinois, southern Indiana, extreme southern Ohio and much of Kentucky. Dangerous travel conditions, tree damage and power outages are likely across this entire area on Sunday.

Severe Weather Threat Sunday Afternoon Across Southern Arkansas, Much Of Louisiana & Much Of Mississippi: On the south side of this storm system, there is expected to be a severe weather threat across southern Arkansas, much of Louisiana and much of Mississippi beginning on Sunday afternoon.

Severe thunderstorms are expected to develop from central and southern Arkansas through western Louisiana to parts of eastern and southeastern Texas on early Sunday afternoon.

These storms will be moving into an environment of very strong low-level wind shear during Sunday afternoon. Because of this, many of the storms will probably acquire rotation as they push eastward through Louisiana and into Mississippi. Damaging wind gusts will be the main threat. That said, a few tornadoes look likely from northern and central Louisiana eastward across the Delta region to western Mississippi from mid-afternoon Sunday through Sunday evening.

It looks like an Arctic air mass will invade much of the central, southern and eastern United States during the first full week of January. This Arctic air mass has the potential to bring some very cold weather as well as the possibility for some winter weather during the week of January 6th as far south as the Gulf Coast and north Florida.

The weather pattern setup by next weekend (January 4-5) looks to consist of an upper level trough of low pressure that will dig south and east into much of the eastern one-half of the United States. This upper level trough of low pressure will pull down a deep Arctic air mass into areas of the United States that are east of the Rocky Mountains. This has the very real potential to be a significant outbreak of cold air throughout the week of January 6.

Well below freezing temperatures are expected to reach as far south as the Gulf Coast and even as far south as Central Florida. Below zero temperatures could push as far south as the southern Appalachian mountains and the Tennessee River valley during the week of January 6.

The part that is much more uncertain is whether there will be any snow or ice that affects the Deep South and parts of the Gulf Coast. While snow is very rare along the Gulf Coast or in north Florida, it is not impossible and it has occurred a few times in the past. That said, even if we have a very cold air mass in place, everything needs to click into place exactly for a snowfall to occur across the Deep South, the Gulf Coast and across north Florida.

There is a window of opportunity from about January 5 to January 8 for a winter storm to affect much of the southern and eastern United States. While this is not a guarantee to happen, it is a time period that will need to be watched closely.

Bottom line is that for about a one week period, it will really feel like winter across much of the central, southern and eastern United States and I’ll have many more updates on this as needed.

Summary: An outbreak of severe thunderstorms with large hail, damaging wind gusts and strong to violent tornadoes are expected beginning late Saturday morning across East Texas and Louisiana and spreading into the lower Mississippi Valley during Saturday afternoon that lasts into Saturday night.

Details: Quite the dangerous severe weather day looks to be setting up across East Texas, much of Louisiana, much of Mississippi and western Alabama as a strong upper level trough of low pressure swings eastward into the southern Plains states. Out ahead of this upper level trough, it appears that a humid, unstable and strongly sheared air mass will set up across areas from the ArkLaMiss into the lower Mississippi Valley during Saturday. This could lead to a volatile atmosphere for severe weather, including the risk for strong to violent tornadoes.

It appears that there could be two rounds of severe weather during Saturday and Saturday night.

Round 1 looks to develop across East Texas and western Louisiana by mid-morning Saturday and then push eastward across Louisiana and into western Mississippi by late Saturday morning into early Saturday afternoon. This first round of severe weather, which will potentially produce damaging winds, hail and tornadoes, some of which will be strong to violent, is expected to sweep across a large part of Mississippi between 2 pm CST and 6 pm CST Saturday. A line of strong to severe thunderstorms associated with the first round of severe weather will push across Alabama during Saturday evening.

Severe Weather Round Number 2 looks to potentially develop across East Texas and western Louisiana by mid-afternoon Saturday and then push across much of Louisiana between 3 pm CST and 7 pm CST Saturday. These severe storms will then push from west to east across much of Mississippi between 7 pm CST and midnight Saturday evening. This second round of severe weather will also be capable of producing damaging wind gusts, hail and possibly strong to violent tornadoes. A line of strong to severe thunderstorms associated with round number 2 then looks to push across much of Alabama during the after midnight hours of Saturday night with strong wind gusts the main threat.

Summary: Tornadoes, including a couple of strong tornadoes, are expected the rest of this afternoon into early this evening across southeast Texas. This tornado threat does include the Houston Metro, as well as the I-10 corridor from Houston to Beaumont.

In addition to the tornado threat, severe storms will bring the threat for wind gusts of 60-70 mph and large hail across southeast Texas the rest of this afternoon and then across Louisiana and southern Arkansas tonight.

Details: Scattered thunderstorm activity is currently occurring across parts of southeast Texas, including a broken line of strong thunderstorms that stretches from near College Station to Victoria. These thunderstorms are expected to strengthen and become severe over the next couple of hours and as they do so, they will pose the threat for tornadoes, damaging winds and hail across southeast Texas.

The environmental conditions across southeast Texas are favorable for severe weather. These conditions include a somewhat unstable atmosphere and some strong low-level wind shear.

For the rest of this afternoon, it is expected that strong to severe storms with some becoming supercellular in nature will be a threat across southeast Texas.

It should be noted that experimental severe weather guidance has the Houston Metro in a fairly high risk area for tornadoes between about 2 pm and 4 pm CST. This enhanced tornado threat then looks to shift into the I-10 corridor east of Houston towards Beaumont during the late afternoon and early evening hours.

By the overnight hours of tonight, the storms are expected to evolve into a line of strong to severe thunderstorms that push eastward across Louisiana and southern Arkansas posing a threat for 60-70 mph wind gusts and hail.

The 2024 Hurricane Season officially ends today. In all, we ended up with 18 named storms, 11 of those storms becoming hurricanes and 5 of those hurricanes becoming major hurricanes. It was a hyperactive and very impactful hurricane season. The Accumulated Cyclone Energy index (ACE) was 161.7, which is certainly a hyperactive season.

The 2024 Atlantic hurricane season will certainly be remembered for the Appalachian flood disaster that Hurricane Helene brought. It will also be remembered by the serious impacts that Hurricane Milton brought to Florida shortly after Helene’s impact. I fully expect to see both Helene and Milton be retired as names in the post season. We cannot forget Beryl, which was a Caribbean Category 5 hurricane in early July.

The total damage from the 2024 Hurricane Season will likely exceed $150 billion in damages based on some reliable estimates I’ve seen.

How Did My Preseason Forecast Do? Back on March 13, I forecasted that the 2024 hurricane season would be an extraordinarily active hurricane season in terms of both number of storms and also in the amount of potential impacts across the Caribbean and along the US Coastline (especially the Gulf Coast). It did end up being an extremely impactful season, however, the number of storms fell short of what I forecasted.

This is what I forecasted back on March 13:
25 Named Storms (18 named storms, so I did not verify there).

12 Hurricanes (11 Hurricanes, so I pretty much verified).

6 Major Hurricanes (5 Major Hurricanes, so again, I pretty much verified).

Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE): 225 (161.7, which fell short of what I forecasted).

Our Forecast That I Sent Out In March:

The Actual 2024 Hurricane Season Activity:

The reason why I forecasted such a busy season back in March was due to the combination of extremely warm ocean waters, the expectation of La Nina conditions and a overall favorable look for development in the Atlantic. Much of this did verify. The big surprise was how quiet the period from mid-August to early September was. While it threw a monkey wrench into the forecast, the extremely active late season hurricane activity certainly made up for that quiet period.

Now, how did my impact forecast do? Back in March, I forecasted that I thought that the northwestern Caribbean, the northeastern Caribbean, the area from the Bahamas through the Florida Peninsula into the eastern Gulf of Mexico would be particularly at risk from hurricane activity during the 2024 season.

Overall, my forecasts of a very impactful season for the northwestern Caribbean, the eastern Gulf of Mexico and the Florida Peninsula verified very well. The activity over the northeastern Caribbean as well as across the Bahamas was much, much less than what I forecasted, which is, obviously, great news.

I did forecast a high risk for a tropical storm or hurricane impact across the northwestern and north-central Gulf Coast and we did have 2 hurricane landfalls, one on the middle and upper Texas coast and one in southeastern Louisiana.

I also did forecast a high risk of a tropical storm or hurricane impact along the coast from Georgia to the Mid-Atlantic States. This ended up not really verifying, although Debby did bring tropical storm conditions to the Georgia and South Carolina coastline.

From this point, I will shift my attention to monitoring the weather across the southern United States and the eastern United States. I’ll certainly be sending out updates over the next 6 months covering significant winter storms or significant severe weather events. I will also be starting to take a look at what the 2025 hurricane season may be like over the next few months and will send out my forecast probably during March or early April.

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