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Tropical Storm Milton has formed as of early this afternoon over the southwestern Gulf of Mexico. Milton has organized and strengthened much faster than what I certainly expected. This is extremely worrisome due to the expectation that Milton will strengthen significantly over the next few days becoming a hurricane as soon as Monday and then possibly a major hurricane before it makes landfall on the west-central coast of Florida on Wednesday.

I cannot emphasize enough how worried and concerned I am as to the potential significant hurricane impacts along not only the west coast of Florida, but also across much of the Florida Peninsula. In particular, the entire I-4 corridor could be hit particularly hard by Milton. Unfortunately, this looks like it might be another big hurricane hit.

The model guidance, as a whole, are in pretty good agreement with the future track of Milton. Overall, they take the storm inland somewhere between Cedar Key and Naples depending on the model guidance member. That said, the highest cluster of models take Milton onshore between Sarasota, Tampa and New Port Richey.

More specifically, both the GFS and European models forecast pretty significant strengthening with the GFS in particular forecasting Milton to be a very major hurricane at landfall. The European model shows a landfall near Tampa on Wednesday evening while the GFS model forecasts a landfall just north of Tampa during Wednesday morning.

The higher resolution hurricane models are even more aggressive with their forecast intensity of Milton with the HAFS model forecasting a nearly Category 5 hurricane on Tuesday night as it approaches the west coast of Florida. The HMON model also forecasts Milton to be near Category 5 hurricane strength near landfall on Wednesday. I am really hoping these models are “overcooked” and trend downward.

When looking at the forecast environmental conditions ahead of Milton, I can see why the models are becoming much more aggressive with their forecast strength of Milton.

Milton is expected to interact with an upper level trough of low pressure located to its north and because of this, it’ll be moving on a east-northeast track. This east-northeast track will line up with the upper level winds associated with the trough and thus the net wind shear over the storm will be extremely low. Also, the stronger Milton gets, the more outflow it’ll produce which will lead it to track a little more to the northeast. Because of this, a stronger Milton will track a little further to the north than a weaker storm. This is REALLY bad news for the Tampa area as a stronger hurricane could track north of Tampa pushing a very significant storm surge into the Bay.

Since it does look like Milton will be a significant hurricane, a life taking and property destroying storm surge along Florida’s West Coast is looking increasingly more likely. Because of this, I strongly urge all interests along Florida’s West Coast to prepare NOW for Milton and to also follow all evacuation recommendations.

My Thinking As Of Right Now Is for Milton to strengthen significantly over the next few days becoming a hurricane by or before Monday and then potentially becoming a major hurricane by Tuesday night.

This means that I think that Milton will make landfall along Florida’s West Coast near Sarasota around midday Wednesday as a major hurricane with 115-125 mph winds. I then think that Milton will cross the Florida Peninsula very near the I-4 corridor leading hurricane conditions to occur across not only Central Florida but also across the Space Coast of Florida and possibly into parts of the First Coast of Florida.

A couple of other things that I wanted to mention – First is that a storm moving from west to east into the west coast of Florida will have the worst storm surge on the south side of the storm and the worst winds will be on the north side of where it makes landfall. Milton is going to be impacting an area that’s already extremely vulnerable due to the impacts Helene just produced. This is, sadly, going to just add insult to injury. Start preparing now for this storm.

Also, those of you along Florida’s West Coast should be taking pictures with timestamps on them of the current conditions of their homes. Two claims from two different storms could be confusing and make filing those claims difficult.

Forecast Impacts:
Heavy Rain: A prolonged heavy rainfall event is expected prior to Milton arriving and this will lead to a significant flood threat across a large part of the Florida Peninsula.

The first round of heavy rain is expected during Sunday on both sides of the Florida Peninsula – From Tampa and points south on the west coast and from Vero Beach to Miami on the east coast.

The second round of heavy rain is expected during Monday across Central and South Florida.

The heavy rain associated with Milton is then expected to arrive late Tuesday night and then continue through Wednesday into Thursday morning.

Rainfall totals from Sunday to Thursday is expected to be in the 4 to 8 inch range across a large part of the Florida Peninsula and this will likely lead to flood problems.

Storm Surge: The storm surge threat from Milton looks a lot more significant than what was thought yesterday. If Milton does make landfall as a major hurricane, it’ll push a 8 to 16 foot storm into the West Coast of Florida, especially from about Palm Harbor and Tampa and points south.

Given the recovery operations still ongoing along the west coast of Florida, this sort of a significant surge is going to not only hamper recovery operations, but will set those recovery efforts back significantly.

Wind: It looks like hurricane force winds are quite possible across the entire I-4 corridor with Milton from areas Tampa through Orlando to the Space Coast during Wednesday.

Elsewhere, tropical storm force winds are expected across the rest of the Florida Peninsula from late Tuesday night through Wednesday. One area that may not see tropical storm conditions is far South Florida and the Keys.

Finally – I STRONGLY urge you to start preparing NOW across the Florida Peninsula and particularly along the West Coast of Florida for a major hurricane hit.

If it were me I’d be getting gas, groceries and water TODAY if I lived in the area I’ve highlighted in the map below:

Model Track Forecast:

Satellite Imagery:

Frequent updates and discussions on Milton will be sent out as needed in the coming days.

Tropical Depression Helene: Ex-Major Hurricane, now Tropical Depression Helene continues to produce a historic and utterly devastating flooding event across the southeastern United States. In addition, as of the time of this writing, there are still about 4 million power outages in the area between Florida and Virginia.

While I haven’t had time to dig extensively through the reports across the southeastern United States, I can say that the storm surge forecast of 15 to 20 feet will certainly verify along the Big Bend area of Florida.

Storm surge records were shattered at long-term tide stations from the Tampa area northward to Cedar Key and Steinhatchee. Based on the data available and preliminary photos in areas like Cedar Key, it’s almost certain areas of the Big Bend, including Fish Creek, Steinhatchee, Horseshoe Beach, Suwannee, and Cedar Key, saw the full extent of the 15 to 20 feet of storm surge forecast.

This was by far the worst modern hurricane to hit the Big Bend area of Florida and the northern part of the west coast of Florida.

A little further north, the flooding in western North Carolina and eastern Tennessee is about as bad as it gets.

As of late this afternoon, there are 12 “catastrophic” Flash Flood Emergencies in effect across the Appalachians. They range from southwestern Virginia to western North Carolina to eastern Tennessee. The criteria for issuing flash flood emergencies is much more stringent than that of the typical flash flood warning. There needs to be an imminent risk of severe damage and/or loss of life. At least 12 counties or communities are reconciling that at present, not to mention the ones that have already been through severe flash flooding and significant wind damage today.

Thankfully, the rain has finally come to an end across the southeastern United States into the Mid-Atlantic States. Sadly though, the damage has already been done.

The remnants of Helene are now expected to be a heavy rain and isolated flood producer across the Ohio Valley through Saturday with additional rain amounts of 1 to 3 inches expected across western Tennessee, western and central Kentucky and southern parts of Illinois, Indiana and Ohio.

Most sad of all is that the death toll associated with Helene is now up to about 47 – 18 in Georgia, 17 in South Carolina, 9 in Florida and 3 in North Carolina.

Finally, hurricane hunter aircraft were able to launch a drone into the eye of Helene on Thursday evening.

This drone spiraled downward and skimmed the top of the ocean, where it measured wind gusts as high as 158 mph before crashing into the Gulf as planned.

Elsewhere Across The Atlantic, Caribbean & The Gulf Of Mexico: There are a few other items to mention before I end this discussion.

We have Hurricane Isaac located over the open North Atlantic, which is expected to continue heading out into the open Atlantic.

We also have Tropical Storm Joyce, which is located over the central Tropical Atlantic. It should be noted that Joyce will curve northward this weekend and will not be a threat to anyone.

Also, I’m going to be keeping an eye on the area from the western Caribbean into the southern Gulf of Mexico where there’s the possibility that we could see tropical development during the second half of next week.

The model guidance aren’t in good agreement at all right now with solutions running from everything from a system that buries itself in the Bay of Campeche to a system that doesn’t become anything at all to a system that becomes a threat to some part of the northern and eastern Gulf Coast.

At this point though, I cannot say more than we do need to watch for tropical development that could be something to really look at in terms of threats to some part of the northern or eastern Gulf Coast around next weekend or during the first part of the week of October 7. That said, I definitely would not worry or be overly concerned about this.

Also, also, there’s the possibility that the area near the Leeward Islands might be an area to watch for a possible tropical system during the week of October 7. The model guidance seem to be suggesting that an area of disturbed weather will push westward across the central Tropical Atlantic during the first part of the week of October 7 and could end up being a threat to the Leeward Islands during the second half of the week of October 7. It should be pointed out that the model guidance seem to be a lot more interested in this becoming a viable tropical system over the one that we’ll be watching in the western Caribbean and southern Gulf of Mexico. Again though, I wouldn’t worry or be overly concerned about this, just keep an eye on it.

I will be back on Monday afternoon with a new discussion taking a look at everything. I’ll be using the weekend to refresh and recharge.

Helene has rapidly intensified over the last few hours with visible and infrared satellite imagery now showing a well established eye. Recent reports from reconnaissance aircraft indicate that Helene now has 125 mph maximum winds and a central barometric pressure of 951 millibars.

The wind field around Helene is huge with tropical storm force wind gusts occurring as far east as the Space Coast of Florida. Recent wind gusts include 71 mph in Bradenton, 67 mph in Naples and 58 mph in Miami.

I now think that it’s extremely likely that Helene will become a Category 4 hurricane with 130-135 mph winds and a central barometric pressure that probably fall into the 940-945 millibar range within the next 2-3 hours or so. This means that a Category 4 hurricane landfall on the area around the eastern parts of Apalachee Bay looks extremely likely between 11 pm and midnight tonight. Areas around Horseshoe Beach, Steinhatchee, Cross City and Perry will probably see the absolute worst that Helene can dish out with Category 3 to Category 4 winds likely.

It should be pointed out that no Category 4 or Category 5 hurricane has made landfall in the Florida Big Bend, including around Tallahassee since records began back in 1850. This means that an unprecedented hurricane landfall is about to happen tonight.

The forward movement of Helene is now accelerating and because of this, the destructive winds associated with the hurricane will be able to spread quite far inland. In fact, the damaging to destructive winds associated with Helene will reach the coast of the eastern Florida Panhandle and the Big Bend area of Florida between about 8 pm and 10 pm EDT/7 to 9 pm CDT and then spread inland across the eastern Florida Panhandle and the Big Bend area of Florida, including Tallahassee between 10 pm and midnight EDT/9 pm to 11 pm CDT.

Storm Surge: A storm surge of 15 to 20 feet is still expected along the Gulf Coast of Florida from Apalachee Bay through the Big Bend area of Florida. I TRULY hope everyone has gotten out of this area as a storm surge like this is just not survivable.

This 15 to 20 foot storm surge will spread inland as far as 10 miles across the Big Bend area of Florida and because of this a huge area of low-lying “dry land” adjacent to Apalachee Bay and the northern Nature Coast will become part of the Gulf of Mexico and be under 10 to 20 feet of rushing water.

This WILL BE a catastrophic and unsurvivable storm surge for Apalachee Bay.

If you are located east of the landfall point, which includes the entire west coast of Florida, a major surge event is almost guaranteed. This includes Tampa Bay where a 5 to 8 foot storm surge is expected and would be the worst surge event since the 1921 Tampa hurricane. Also, a 3 to 5 foot storm surge is expected across all of southwest Florida.

Wind: The wind impact from Helene will be widespread and very destructive in some areas.

The really severe hurricane force winds with Helene are expected to spread unusually far inland due to how strong the hurricane will be and how fast it’ll be moving.

Wind gusts of at least 100-125 mph can be expected across the Central & Eastern Florida Panhandle, including Tallahassee, the Big Bend area of Florida, the Nature Coast of Florida and across southern Georgia.

If you are located in Apalachee Bay, the Big Bend, and Tallahassee, your realistic worst case scenario is a hurricane that’s much, much worse than what Michael was like for you. If you don’t think that your house will withstand 100-plus mph winds (I’m looking at those of you with prefab homes, modular homes and trailers), head west!! Pensacola and Destin should be far enough. Also, if you live in a home with tall trees all around, you might want to strongly consider evacuating.

Rainfall: Heavy rain with major to catastrophic inland flooding is likely as Helene pushes inland over the next couple of days.

Of particular concern and worry is the area from northeastern Georgia through western South Carolina and western North Carolina. This area has already received 8 to 10 inches of rain over the past 2-3 days and the additional rainfall from Helene will lead to catastrophic flash flooding and landslides throughout this region.

This is expected to be one of the most significant and severe weather events to happen across the western Carolinas in the modern era. Record flood levels are expected. I strongly urge everyone from northeastern Georgia through the western Carolinas to take every weather warning extremely seriously as impacts will be life-threatening.

I just cannot stress how significant this flood event will be. Heed all evacuation orders if you live in a flood zone in northeastern Georgia and the western Carolinas. If you do not feel safe at your current location, go to a storm shelter.

The overall forecast for Helene hasn’t really changed since my last update.

The latest reports from reconnaissance aircraft show that Helene has strengthened to a Category 2 hurricane with 100 mph winds and a central barometric pressure of 960 millibars.

The weather is beginning to get rough across the Peninsula of Florida with rain bands from Helene pushing onshore.

The environment that Helene is expected to move over today will be very favorable for quick strengthening. This is why we’re expecting the hurricane to strengthen quickly over the next 12-18 hours and likely reach AT LEAST Category 3 intensity.

There are two factors that might work towards preventing Helene from becoming a total monstrous nightmare high end Category 4 or Category 5 hurricane.

The first is that it will be moving so fast in forward speed later today and tonight that it’ll run out of time to continue strengthening before it makes landfall.

The second factor is that the eye wall of the hurricane is actually made up of two concentric eye walls, instead of the usual one. As long as this is present, the strengthening of the hurricane will be slowed down. No guarantees on that, but it is a possible factor.

Even if Helene miraculously falls a little short of its current forecast strength of 130 mph (don’t count on it!), it’s simply too late for anything to fall apart to prevent a major, life taking, catastrophic disaster for areas from the Panhandle and Big Bend area of Florida through parts of Georgia, the Carolinas and eastern Tennessee.

Bottom Line Is That Helene is still expected to be a catastrophic major hurricane before and during its landfall in the Big Bend area of Florida this evening with major to catastrophic impacts expected from the eastern Florida Panhandle through the Big Bend area of Florida into parts of the west coast of Florida, mainly from Tampa and points north.

Storm Surge: A storm surge of 15 to 20 feet is still expected along the Gulf Coast of Florida from Apalachee Bay through the Big Bend area of Florida. I TRULY hope everyone has gotten out of this area as a storm surge like this is just not survivable. Storm surges are still expected to reach 20 feet above normal water levels in parts of coastal northwest Florida.

This 15 to 20 foot storm surge will spread inland as far as 10 miles across the Big Bend area of Florida and because of this a huge area of low-lying “dry land” adjacent to Apalachee Bay and the northern Nature Coast will become part of the Gulf of Mexico and be under 10 to 20 feet of rushing water.

This WILL BE a catastrophic and unsurvivable storm surge for Apalachee Bay. PLEASE, I BEG YOU, take all evacuation orders seriously!!

If you are located east of the landfall point, which includes the entire west coast of Florida, a major surge event is almost guaranteed. This includes Tampa Bay where a 5 to 8 foot storm surge is expected and would be the worst surge event since the 1921 Tampa hurricane. Also, a 3 to 5 foot storm surge is expected across all of southwest Florida.

It needs to be pointed out that the storm surge will likely begin to arrive along the eastern Florida Panhandle, Apalachee Bay, the Big Bend area of Florida and the west coast of Florida during this morning and only get worse from there.

I WILL BE BLUNT AGAIN – If you have been told to evacuate, YOU NEED TO LEAVE NOW!!! Go several miles inland to higher ground. The expected surge impacts from Helene are without living precedent and highly likely to happen. RUN INLAND FROM THE WATER!!

Wind: The wind impact from Helene will be widespread and very destructive in some areas.

It is likely that tropical storm force winds of 40-65 mph, which will easily knock out power and damage trees, will occur across all of Florida starting this morning in the Keys and South Florida Thursday morning and then push northward into North Florida by this afternoon.

The really severe hurricane force winds with Helene are expected to spread unusually far inland due to how strong the hurricane will be and how fast it’ll be moving. Wind gusts of 80-100 mph can be expected across the Central & Eastern Florida Panhandle, including Tallahassee, the Big Bend area of Florida, the Nature Coast of Florida and across southern Georgia.

The absolutely worst and catastrophic winds that exceed 115-125 mph can be expected along the coast from Steinhatchee to Apalachicola and then spread inland through Tallahassee towards Thomasville during Thursday night.

So: if you’re in Apalachee Bay, the Big Bend, and Tallahassee, your realistic worst case scenario is a hurricane that’s much, much worse than what Michael was like for you. If you don’t think that your house will withstand 100-plus mph winds (I’m looking at those of you with prefab homes, modular homes and trailers), head west!! Pensacola and Destin should be far enough. Also, if you live in a home with tall trees all around, you might want to strongly consider evacuating.

Finally, if you are evacuating, turn off your water and if you have it, turn off your natural gas line that goes into your home.

Okay, time to get a little sleep (I haven’t gone to bed yet). I will have a new update sent out to you by early afternoon or so with the latest on Helene.

Hurricane Helene: As expected, Helene is now a strengthening hurricane with latest reports from reconnaissance aircraft indicating the hurricane has 85 mph maximum winds and a central barometric pressure of 978 millibars.

Even though not much has changed with my thoughts regarding Helene, it is now extremely evident that Helene is going to be an extremely serious and extremely major hurricane for the eastern Florida Panhandle and Big Bend area of Florida. It looks as if this hurricane will produce a worse impact than Idalia across most places between Apalachicola and Tampa.

It should be noted that the surge forecasts have increased and are now expected to be upwards of at least 15 to 20 feet across the entire Big Bend area of Florida, including Cedar Key, Horseshoe Beach, Steinhatchee, Perry, St. Marks and Sopchoppy. This surge would be far higher than what occurred during Idalia. The expected surge across other areas from Tampa to Apalachicola will be probably be as high as, if not higher than what occurred with Idalia. In fact, I would plan on worse surge damage than what you experienced during Idalia.

I want to be as blunt as I can be – Due to the expected landfall strength of near Category 4 intensity and the very large size of the hurricane, Helene will bring a catastrophic, life taking storm surge to the west coast of Florida and the Big Bend area of Florida, especially from Tampa to Apalachicola. A core of very destructive winds of at least 100 mph will impact a large area of north Florida into southern Georgia and does include Tallahassee. This hurricane is no joke at all and needs to be taken extremely seriously. If you are in an evacuation zone, my recommendation is to get out of town, if you can.

As For The Forecast Track – While the expected track isn’t completely locked in, it seems quite likely that we should see Helene come ashore right into the Big Bend area of Florida just east of Apalachicola in the area around Crawfordville, St. Marks and Perry during Thursday evening as potentially a Category 4 hurricane with 130-135 mph winds.

That said, there are still some indications in the model guidance that seem to point towards a track a little further east closer to Steinhatchee and Cedar Key. This means that I strongly urge everyone from Apalachicola to Clearwater to be fully ready for a very significant hurricane hit, via surge, wind or both.

Forecast Impacts:
Storm Surge: Water is, by far, the biggest killer in hurricanes. There is no hurricane hazard more deadly or destructive than storm surge.

It cannot be emphasized enough that Helene will bring an extremely widespread and extremely destructive surge event unlike any other in the modern era across Apalachee Bay and west-central Florida. This includes a life taking storm surge in Tampa Bay, even though the track of the eye of the hurricane will pass about 100 miles offshore.

The eastern wind field of Helene will be both intense and hug and will push an enormous wall of water northward onto the shallow continental shelf of the northeastern Gulf. At least a 15 to 20 foot storm surge will spread inland as far as 10 miles across the Big Bend area of Florida and because of this a huge area of low-lying “dry land” adjacent to Apalachee Bay and the northern Nature Coast will become part of the Gulf of Mexico and be under 10 to 20 feet of rushing water. It should also be pointed out that the worst part of the storm surge will coincide with the 11 pm Thursday night high tide in Apalachee Bay leading to a even worse inundation.

This WILL BE a catastrophic and unsurvivable storm surge for Apalachee Bay. PLEASE, I BEG YOU, take all evacuation orders seriously!!

If you are located east of the landfall point, which includes the entire west coast of Florida, a major surge event is almost guaranteed. This includes Tampa Bay where a 5 to 8 foot storm surge is expected and would be the worst surge event since the 1921 Tampa hurricane. Also, a 3 to 5 foot storm surge is expected across all of southwest Florida.

It needs to be pointed out that the storm surge will likely begin to arrive along the eastern Florida Panhandle, Apalachee Bay, the Big Bend area of Florida and the west coast of Florida as early as late tonight and Thursday morning well ahead of the strong winds.

If you are evacuating to escape a surge threat, you don’t necessarily need to drive to Mississippi or Louisiana. Instead, you just need to drive several miles inland to somewhere 30 feet above sea level rather than 6 or 12 feet above sea level.

I WILL BE BLUNT AGAIN – If you get an evacuation order, YOU NEED TO LEAVE NOW!!! Go several miles inland to higher ground. The expected surge impacts from Helene are without living precedent and highly likely to happen. RUN INLAND FROM THE WATER!! YOUR LIFE DEPENDS ON IT!!

Wind: The wind impact from Helene will be widespread and very destructive in some areas.

It is likely that tropical storm force winds of 40-65 mph, which will easily knock out power and damage trees, will occur across all of Florida starting tonight in the Keys and spread northward into South Florida Thursday morning and then push northward into North Florida by Thursday afternoon.

The really severe hurricane force winds with Helene are expected to spread unusually far inland due to how strong the hurricane will be and how fast it’ll be moving. Wind gusts of 80-100 mph can be expected across the Central & Eastern Florida Panhandle, including Tallahassee, the Big Bend area of Florida, the Nature Coast of Florida and across southern Georgia.

The absolutely worst and catastrophic winds that exceed 115-125 mph can be expected along the coast from Steinhatchee to Apalachicola and then spread inland through Tallahassee towards Thomasville during Thursday night.

If you’re in Apalachee Bay, the Big Bend, and Tallahassee, your realistic worst case scenario is a hurricane that’s much, much worse than what Michael was like for you. If you don’t think that your house will withstand 100-plus mph winds (I’m looking at those of you with prefab homes, modular homes and trailers), head west!! Pensacola and Destin should be far enough. Also, if you live in a home with tall trees all around, you might want to strongly consider evacuating.

Finally, if you are evacuating, turn off your water and if you have it, turn off your natural gas line that goes into your home.

Rainfall:

Evacuation Order Map:

FINALLY – I’m running out of adjectives to describe how severe this hurricane will be for many of you. This is the real deal everyone. REACT, PREPARE, EVACUATE. Take care of yourself, take care of your family and take care of your neighbors.

I am going to continue to do my best to keep you updated throughout the storm and I will continue to send out frequent updates on Helene. These updates will continue to give you the latest information on the impacts of surge, wind and heavy rainfall.

Model Track Forecast:

Satellite Imagery:

Helene is a large storm and is steadily strengthening this morning.

Reports from reconnaissance aircraft have just found a barometric pressure of 981mb inside of the storm. It is just below hurricane intensity with winds of 65 mph.

Helene will likely become a hurricane very soon and I still think a major Category 3 to Category 4 hurricane at landfall into the eastern Panhandle tomorrow evening.

With the onset of widespread dangerous condition early tomorrow, you have today to prepare for what will be an unprecedentedly large and powerful hurricane strike on North Florida with severe impacts occurring all along the Florida Gulf Coast.

Life-threatening storm surge of 10-15’+ in Apalachee Bay will submerge much of the Big Bend and eastern Panhandle’s low-lying coastal counties, where mandatory evacuations are in effect. This would by far be the worst surge in recorded history in Apalachee Bay, exceeding Michael’s surge and that of the much smaller Idalia in Apalachee Bay and the Nature Coast.

Significant surge farther south across the Florida Gulf Coast, including 5-8’ for Tampa Bay, is also a major threat to life and property.

IF YOU HAVE AN EVACUATION ORDER, GO TODAY. Weather conditions will go downhill tomorrow.

I will have additional frequent updates throughout today, tonight and tomorrow.

Satellite imagery, radar data and reports from reconnaissance aircraft indicate that Helene is strengthening and seems to be getting “that look” on satellite imagery. In fact, latest reports from reconnaissance aircraft indicate that the central barometric pressure is falling fairly quickly and the winds are now up to 60 mph. This all makes me believe that Helene will probably be a hurricane by late tonight or by tomorrow morning.

Overall, there are no other changes to what I wrote a little earlier. I still think that Helene will be a VERY significant hurricane impact for many along the Florida Gulf Coast with very strong wind impacts well inland into north Florida, the eastern Florida Panhandle and much of Georgia. See below for my thoughts on that.

More updates on the latest with Helene will be sent out as needed. Tomorrow and Thursday will likely be very busy days in terms of getting updates sent over to you, so stay tuned.

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Tropical Storm Helene: Reconnaissance aircraft, satellite imagery and other data indicates that our system over the northwestern Caribbean is now a tropical storm with 45 mph winds.

Additional analysis reveals that it appears that the wind shear over Helene seems to be decreasing as the appearance of the storm seems to be taking on a more feathery appearance. This feathery appearance means that the outflow around the storm seems to be improving and the overall environment seems to be getting more favorable for strengthening. In fact, the latest SHIPS intensity guidance seems to be pointing towards wind shear values of 4 to 8 knots to be present over Helene beginning tonight and continuing right up to landfall. If this occurs, it would be a very favorable environment for significant strengthening. In addition, the ocean water temperatures over the southern and eastern Gulf of Mexico are extremely warm and will act like rocket fuel to help to strengthen Helene.

All of this makes me continue to think that Helene will be a major Category 3 hurricane with 120-125 mph winds when it makes landfall on Thursday evening right in the area around Apalachee Bay with a track that could take the eyewall right over Tallahassee. If this happens, then 100-120 mph wind gusts could occur across the entire eastern part of the Florida Panhandle into extreme southern Georgia. This would include St. Marks, Crawfordville, Apalachicola and Tallahassee. It would also include Albany, Dothan and Valdosta, Georgia.

It needs to be emphasized that Helene is going to be a very large hurricane in overall size and because of this the storm surge, strong wind and heavy rain impacts will affect a very large area on the eastern side of the storm. A notable storm surge is likely along the entire west coast of Florida, tropical storm force winds are expected across much of the Florida Peninsula, as well as far inland as southern and central Georgia and parts of South Carolina. Heavy rain with flash flooding will be likely across all of the Southeastern United States.

One reason why we’re seeing some wind shear and a lack of much organization over the past 24 hours might be due to the very unexpected strengthening of Hurricane John in the Eastern Pacific, which made landfall near Acapulco last night as a Category 3. Hurricane John’s outflow is contributing to the slightly stronger southwesterly shear over Helene. The wildcard that is Hurricane John might lead to more eastward displacements of the convection and possibly even eastward displacements of the center. Because of this, we really need to watch for the continued possibility of a more easterly track than what’s shown right now.

The overall forecast track of Helene hasn’t changed a whole lot since yesterday. It looks likely that Helene will enter the southern Gulf of Mexico by early Wednesday afternoon as a borderline tropical storm-hurricane, pass around 100 miles west of Tampa around midday on Thursday as a low end Category 2 hurricane and reach the area around the eastern Florida Panhandle and the Big Bend area of Florida by Thursday evening as a 120-125 mph Category 3 hurricane.

This seems like a pretty easy and locked-in forecast, right? Not so fast on that.

The angle at which Helene approaches Florida is going to be very important as any minute shifts in the track will lead to large differences to where Helene crosses the coast on Thursday evening.

At this point, it seems pretty likely that Helene will be steered towards north and then north-notheast in-between an upper level low pressure system located over the central Mississippi Valley and a high pressure ridge located over the western North Atlantic. Based on the synoptic weather pattern alone, it seems pretty likely that Helene will make landfall as a major hurricane on Thursday evening somewhere in the eastern Florida Panhandle, the Big Bend area of Florida or the northern Nature Coast of Florida.

That said, because of Florida’s unique geography, the exact landfall point is actually hard to do when a storm approaches from the south or southwest. A shift of just 10 or 15 miles out over the Gulf of Mexico can lead to a shift of 20 to 40 miles with respect to landfall location in Florida. This can be a huge deal when determining storm surge impacts and wind impacts. This means that every small shift in the track of the storm will need to be watched and considered very carefully.

So, if the model guidance are completely correct, we’re likely to see Helene move right into Apalachee Bay or the Big Bend. However, if the models are not resolving the upper level low pressure system over the middle Mississippi Valley correctly, it would change things in terms of track. There’s definitely a scenario there for Helene to track very, very close to Tampa as some of the guidance continues to show a track that takes Helene inland near Cedar Key rather than Apalachee Bay.

For now, my range of likelihood landfall areas is from about Apalachicola to about Cedar Key.

As I already mentioned, any slight shifts in the track of Helene will make a huge difference in both wind and surge impacts for individual locations.

Obviously, slight shifts in track within that range will make a huge difference in wind and surge outcomes for individual locations.

For example, it’s not possible at the present moment to say with complete certainty whether Tallahassee will have the core of the hurricane go right over producing 100-125 mph wind gusts or not. It’s also not yet possible to say with any complete certainty as to whether Tampa will see a 5 to 10 foot storm surge or whether a 10 to 15-plus foot storm surge could occur if Helene’s track shifts to the east a little.

BOTTOM LINE IS THAT a major hurricane is likely to strike the Gulf Coast of Florida by Thursday evening somewhere between Apalachicola and Cedar Key. This means that the rest of today and tomorrow are your days to prepare in the Panhandle, north-central Florida, and west-central Florida, so make it count!!

Forecast Impacts:
Storm Surge: The storm surge is going to affect a lot of people and it’s going to be quite significant in some areas.

Storm surge heights of 10 to 15 feet looks likely in the Big Bend area of Florida (includes Alligator Point, St. Marks, Cedar Key, Steinhatchee, Crystal River and Homosassa) and this would be as bad as, if not worse than what occurred during Idalia last year. A storm surge of 5 to 8 feet in Tampa Bay would also be about as bad as or worse than Idalia. So, for planning purposes, I would strongly advise you to use Idalia as a blueprint to prepare by and in fact, I’d advise you to prepare for a storm that’s a little worse than Idalia.

The wind field and the size of the storm is expected to be much larger than Idalia and because of this, the surge impacts could be worse.

Wind: It is expected that the quick forward speed of Helene when it makes landfall will lead to tropical storm and hurricane force winds occurring well inland. As you can see in the map below, the area of tropical storm and hurricane force winds is huge. Both coasts of the Florida Peninsula are likely to see tropical storm force winds with 60-plus mph wind gusts occurring as far east as St. Augustine, Jacksonville, Brunswick and maybe even Savannah.

How far inland the hurricane force winds extend will depend on how strong Helene is when it makes landfall and how fast it’s moving. That said, Helene has the very real potential to be a destructive inland wind event for north Florida, much of Georgia and parts of South Carolina.

This means that widespread, significant power outages and wind damage could occur in the metro areas of Tallahassee, Atlanta, Macon, Savannah, Columbia, Charleston, Greenville-Spartanburg, and Charlotte should be prepared for very strong winds and this means to prepare with at least a few days of food and water should there be extended widespread power outages. is come to fruition.

Rainfall:

Evacuation Order Map:

Again, this is going to be a very large hurricane and its impacts are going to affect quite a bit of the southeastern United States.

I will continue to send out frequent updates on Helene, especially during tomorrow and Thursday. These updates and discussions will give you information on the latest impacts of surge, wind and heavy rainfall. That said, you need to go into HURRICANE MODE NOW. Take the rest of today and tomorrow to prepare across the Florida Panhandle, north Florida, central Florida and along the west coast of Florida.

Model Track Forecast:

Satellite Imagery:

Tropical Storm Helene: Reconnaissance aircraft, satellite imagery and other data indicates that our system over the northwestern Caribbean is now a tropical storm with 45 mph winds.

Additional analysis reveals that it appears that the wind shear over Helene seems to be decreasing as the appearance of the storm seems to be taking on a more feathery appearance. This feathery appearance means that the outflow around the storm seems to be improving and the overall environment seems to be getting more favorable for strengthening. In fact, the latest SHIPS intensity guidance seems to be pointing towards wind shear values of 4 to 8 knots to be present over Helene beginning tonight and continuing right up to landfall. If this occurs, it would be a very favorable environment for significant strengthening. In addition, the ocean water temperatures over the southern and eastern Gulf of Mexico are extremely warm and will act like rocket fuel to help to strengthen Helene.

All of this makes me continue to think that Helene will be a major Category 3 hurricane with 120-125 mph winds when it makes landfall on Thursday evening right in the area around Apalachee Bay with a track that could take the eyewall right over Tallahassee. If this happens, then 100-120 mph wind gusts could occur across the entire eastern part of the Florida Panhandle into extreme southern Georgia. This would include St. Marks, Crawfordville, Apalachicola and Tallahassee. It would also include Albany, Dothan and Valdosta, Georgia.

It needs to be emphasized that Helene is going to be a very large hurricane in overall size and because of this the storm surge, strong wind and heavy rain impacts will affect a very large area on the eastern side of the storm. A notable storm surge is likely along the entire west coast of Florida, tropical storm force winds are expected across much of the Florida Peninsula, as well as far inland as southern and central Georgia and parts of South Carolina. Heavy rain with flash flooding will be likely across all of the Southeastern United States.

One reason why we’re seeing some wind shear and a lack of much organization over the past 24 hours might be due to the very unexpected strengthening of Hurricane John in the Eastern Pacific, which made landfall near Acapulco last night as a Category 3. Hurricane John’s outflow is contributing to the slightly stronger southwesterly shear over Helene. The wildcard that is Hurricane John might lead to more eastward displacements of the convection and possibly even eastward displacements of the center. Because of this, we really need to watch for the continued possibility of a more easterly track than what’s shown right now.

The overall forecast track of Helene hasn’t changed a whole lot since yesterday. It looks likely that Helene will enter the southern Gulf of Mexico by early Wednesday afternoon as a borderline tropical storm-hurricane, pass around 100 miles west of Tampa around midday on Thursday as a low end Category 2 hurricane and reach the area around the eastern Florida Panhandle and the Big Bend area of Florida by Thursday evening as a 120-125 mph Category 3 hurricane.

This seems like a pretty easy and locked-in forecast, right? Not so fast on that.

The angle at which Helene approaches Florida is going to be very important as any minute shifts in the track will lead to large differences to where Helene crosses the coast on Thursday evening.

At this point, it seems pretty likely that Helene will be steered towards north and then north-notheast in-between an upper level low pressure system located over the central Mississippi Valley and a high pressure ridge located over the western North Atlantic. Based on the synoptic weather pattern alone, it seems pretty likely that Helene will make landfall as a major hurricane on Thursday evening somewhere in the eastern Florida Panhandle, the Big Bend area of Florida or the northern Nature Coast of Florida.

That said, because of Florida’s unique geography, the exact landfall point is actually hard to do when a storm approaches from the south or southwest. A shift of just 10 or 15 miles out over the Gulf of Mexico can lead to a shift of 20 to 40 miles with respect to landfall location in Florida. This can be a huge deal when determining storm surge impacts and wind impacts. This means that every small shift in the track of the storm will need to be watched and considered very carefully.

So, if the model guidance are completely correct, we’re likely to see Helene move right into Apalachee Bay or the Big Bend. However, if the models are not resolving the upper level low pressure system over the middle Mississippi Valley correctly, it would change things in terms of track. There’s definitely a scenario there for Helene to track very, very close to Tampa as some of the guidance continues to show a track that takes Helene inland near Cedar Key rather than Apalachee Bay.

For now, my range of likelihood landfall areas is from about Apalachicola to about Cedar Key.

As I already mentioned, any slight shifts in the track of Helene will make a huge difference in both wind and surge impacts for individual locations.

Obviously, slight shifts in track within that range will make a huge difference in wind and surge outcomes for individual locations.

For example, it’s not possible at the present moment to say with complete certainty whether Tallahassee will have the core of the hurricane go right over producing 100-125 mph wind gusts or not. It’s also not yet possible to say with any complete certainty as to whether Tampa will see a 5 to 10 foot storm surge or whether a 10 to 15-plus foot storm surge could occur if Helene’s track shifts to the east a little.

BOTTOM LINE IS THAT a major hurricane is likely to strike the Gulf Coast of Florida by Thursday evening somewhere between Apalachicola and Cedar Key. This means that the rest of today and tomorrow are your days to prepare in the Panhandle, north-central Florida, and west-central Florida, so make it count!!

Forecast Impacts:
Storm Surge: The storm surge is going to affect a lot of people and it’s going to be quite significant in some areas.

Storm surge heights of 10 to 15 feet looks likely in the Big Bend area of Florida (includes Alligator Point, St. Marks, Cedar Key, Steinhatchee, Crystal River and Homosassa) and this would be as bad as, if not worse than what occurred during Idalia last year. A storm surge of 5 to 8 feet in Tampa Bay would also be about as bad as or worse than Idalia. So, for planning purposes, I would strongly advise you to use Idalia as a blueprint to prepare by and in fact, I’d advise you to prepare for a storm that’s a little worse than Idalia.

The wind field and the size of the storm is expected to be much larger than Idalia and because of this, the surge impacts could be worse.

Wind: It is expected that the quick forward speed of Helene when it makes landfall will lead to tropical storm and hurricane force winds occurring well inland. As you can see in the map below, the area of tropical storm and hurricane force winds is huge. Both coasts of the Florida Peninsula are likely to see tropical storm force winds with 60-plus mph wind gusts occurring as far east as St. Augustine, Jacksonville, Brunswick and maybe even Savannah.

How far inland the hurricane force winds extend will depend on how strong Helene is when it makes landfall and how fast it’s moving. That said, Helene has the very real potential to be a destructive inland wind event for north Florida, much of Georgia and parts of South Carolina.

This means that widespread, significant power outages and wind damage could occur in the metro areas of Tallahassee, Atlanta, Macon, Savannah, Columbia, Charleston, Greenville-Spartanburg, and Charlotte should be prepared for very strong winds and this means to prepare with at least a few days of food and water should there be extended widespread power outages. is come to fruition.

Rainfall:

Evacuation Order Map:

Again, this is going to be a very large hurricane and its impacts are going to affect quite a bit of the southeastern United States.

I will continue to send out frequent updates on Helene, especially during tomorrow and Thursday. These updates and discussions will give you information on the latest impacts of surge, wind and heavy rainfall. That said, you need to go into HURRICANE MODE NOW. Take the rest of today and tomorrow to prepare across the Florida Panhandle, north Florida, central Florida and along the west coast of Florida.

Model Track Forecast:

Satellite Imagery:

Potential Tropical Cyclone #9: It looks like we are going to have yet another Florida Gulf Coast major hurricane landfall this coming Thursday. While there are some uncertainty with the exact track of this system, Florida’s West Coast and the Panhandle of Florida isn’t going to get out of this one, unfortunately.

Analysis as of late this afternoon indicates that the convection with PTC 9 is slowly becoming better organized. That said, reconnaissance aircraft have found that this system is still not quite yet a tropical cyclone due to a lack of a well-defined center. We’re close to having the upgrade to Tropical Storm Helene, but we’re not quite there yet. I do think that we’ll see PTC 9 become a tropical storm as soon as late tonight then a hurricane by Wednesday morning and finally a major hurricane by Thursday morning.

Forecast Track: It is expected that PTC 9 will head on a northwesterly course reaching the Yucatan Channel by Wednesday. As we get into Thursday, it is expected that the steering currents between an upper level trough of low pressure over the central United States and a high pressure ridge over the western Atlantic should steer this system to the north and even to the northeast towards the area around the eastern Florida Panhandle, the Big Bend area of Florida and the area north of Tampa.

At this point, it appears the area of highest probability of landfall is somewhere between Panama City and Cedar Key late Thursday afternoon or Thursday evening.

You need to understand that the Florida Panhandle, the Big Bend area of Florida and Florida’s West Coast are at very serious risk of a significant storm surge, strong winds and heavy rain from a potential major hurricane landfall on Thursday and Thursday night. Impacts in the way of strong winds and heavy rain will extend well inland across North Florida and south Georgia. I strongly urge you to prepare now to save life and property.

Forecast Strength: Unfortunately, the chances of this storm becoming a major hurricane continues to increase and in fact, this storm has a very high ceiling in terms of intensity. That said, there is a significant spread in the intensity guidance as to how strong this storm might get. Some guidance show it strengthening to a Category 1 or 2 hurricane while others are outright scary and show it strengthening into at least a Category 4 hurricane.

I think that we’re probably, at minimum, looking at a Category 3 hurricane landfall as the environment is likely to be quite favorable for significant strengthening. Additionally, the very warm waters over the southern and eastern Gulf of Mexico will act like “rocket fuel” and help to really bulk up this storm.

It also looks like this system will probably travel over an extremely hot water eddy and this will only fuel this storm even more. Because of this, it is likely that this storm will come ashore at peak intensity, which is at least a 120-125 mph Category 3 hurricane.

That said, there are still a few questions regarding how strong this storm will actually get.

The first question is how fast will this system organize and wrap up over the next day or so in the northwestern Caribbean. If this storm remains broad and disorganized and takes time to organize, it would strengthen much slower and lead to perhaps a Category 1 or 2 hurricane landfall. On the other hand, if this storm is already a strengthening hurricane when it enters the southern Gulf of Mexico on Wednesday, then all bets are off and we’d probably see it make landfall as at least a Category 3 or Category 4 hurricane. It needs to be pointed out that the upper level outflow over this system will be nearly ideal from Wednesday into Thursday leading to rapid strengthening and this is something that is very worrisome.

The second question is what type of interaction will we see between an upper level low pressure system over the Mississippi Valley and our storm. If the strong upper-level winds associated with the upper level low pressure system are removed sufficiently from the storm, then it’ll lead to an environment that remains very favorable right through landfall, much like we saw with Michael. On the other hand, if the storm and the upper level low are closer together, then strong shearing winds over the storm may lead to weakening as it’s coming into the coast and making landfall.

Either way, all interests on the central and eastern Florida Panhandle, the Big Bend area of Florida and along the west coast of Florida should be preparing for a major hurricane impact. In fact, the impacts from this storm could be as bad or even worse than Idalia and definitely much worse than Debby in the Big Bend area of Florida.

Here Are My Thoughts: I do think that we’ll see this system become Tropical Storm Helene as soon as late tonight or during Tuesday morning and then a hurricane during the day on Wednesday.

As I already mentioned, I do think that we’ll see substantial strengthening when this storm moves to the north and then northeast across the Gulf of Mexico from Wednesday into Thursday reaching Category 3 strength with 120-125 mph winds.

The eye of what will be Hurricane Helene should make landfall late Thursday afternoon or Thursday evening in the area between Panama City and Cedar Key as a 120-125 mph Category 3 hurricane.

That said, even a slight deviation in the track is going to be a HUGE deal. For instance, a slight deviation in the track to the east would lead to a major hurricane impact along the entire west coast of Florida from Fort Myers and Sarasota northward through Tampa and points north.

A slight deviation in the track to the west would lead to a major hurricane impact along the entire Florida Panhandle, including Pensacola and Panama City.

Any deviations in the track is something that’s going to need to be watched extremely closely.

Possible Impacts: Even with the eye of our future hurricane tracking into the Big Bend area of Florida, the impacts will be large in size and all encompassing.

Hurricane force winds can be expected during Thursday into Thursday night across all of western Florida, including Fort Myers, Sarasota and Tampa. Tropical storm force winds are likely throughout Thursday and Thursday night across ALL of the Florida Peninsula and across the central and eastern Florida Panhandle. Areas including Gainesville, Jacksonville, Daytona Beach and Orlando may see near hurricane force wind gusts Thursday afternoon and Thursday night. This is going to be a large hurricane in overall size and will affect much of Florida.

The storm surge threat with this storm is extremely worrisome as up to a 10 foot storm surge looks likely up and down the west coast of Florida, including Tampa, Fort Myers, Naples and Sarasota. That storm surge could end up being closer to 15 feet in the Big Bend area of Florida.

Possible Storm Surge For Tampa:

Heavy rainfall with flooding is likely to be a threat along the west coast of Florida into the Florida Panhandle with rain beginning as soon as late Wednesday and Wednesday night. Rain totals of 4 to 8 inches are expected.

Even further inland, there is going to be significant impacts from this storm. Our future hurricane is likely to be moving at a forward speed of 20-30 mph and because of this, it’ll be able to spread tropical storm to hurricane force winds well inland from the coast. The strong winds from this storm will spread inland Thursday night and continue on Friday. Much of Georgia, much of South Carolina and parts of southern and western North Carolina may be impacted by strong winds.

This means that widespread, significant power outages and wind damage could occur in the metro areas of Tallahassee, Atlanta, Macon, Savannah, Columbia, Charleston, Greenville-Spartanburg, and Charlotte should be prepared for very strong winds and this means to prepare with at least a few days of food and water should there be extended widespread power outages. is come to fruition.

In addition, heavy rainfall with amounts of 4 to 8 inches can be expected well inland into much of Georgia, much of South Carolina, central and western North Carolina and eastern Tennessee. Flash flooding is likely, especially in mountainous areas.

Again, this is going to be a very large hurricane and its impacts are going to affect quite a bit of the southeastern United States.

I’m going to be sending out frequent updates as well as sending out our regular discussions over the next couple of days. These updates and discussions will give you information on the latest impacts of surge, wind and heavy rainfall. That said, you need to start preparing NOW across the Florida Panhandle, north Florida, central Florida and along the west coast of Florida. This hurricane will come at you much faster than you think, so go into HURRICANE MODE NOW.

I REALLY, REALLY hate pulling out all the stops once again in warning you along the Florida Gulf Coast, but based on what I’m seeing, it’s definitely needed.

Model Track Forecast:

Satellite Imagery:

Even though I’m working on a brand new full tropical weather discussion on PTC 9, I wanted to give you a really quick update.

As you all know, we now have Potential Tropical Cyclone 9 which is likely going to be our next named storm, Helene, within the next several hours.

It is extremely likely that this system will end up being a major hurricane landfall along some part of the eastern Florida Panhandle, Big Bend Area Of Florida & Florida’s West Coast north of Tampa on Thursday. In fact, a high end Category 3 or Category 4 major hurricane landfall cannot be ruled out.

The angle of the approach to the coast and how close this system tracks to the west coast of Florida is going to be extremely important as hurricane force winds and up to a 10 foot storm surge could occur along the entire west coast of Florida, including Tampa, across all of the Big Bend area of Florida and across eastern and central parts of the Florida Panhandle on Thursday. All preparations to save life and property need to start NOW!! You only have about 2 more days to prepare for this potential major hurricane.

Strong wind impacts and heavy rain impacts will also likely extend well inland well into north Florida, southern and eastern Georgia and across parts of the Carolinas. This means that this storm will be your storm too if you are in Tallahassee, Gainesville, Jacksonville, Savannah, Charleston, Charlotte and Raleigh.

A full comprehensive discussion is coming and will be sent out by 7 pm EDT/6 pm CDT today.