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Watching An Area Of Low Pressure Located Off Of The Coast Of The Southeastern United States: So much for trying to take a couple of days off as the tropics has other ideas.

Satellite imagery and weather analysis indicates that there is an area of low pressure located to the east of the coast of northeast Florida. This low pressure system is producing some shower and thunderstorms activity offshore of the east coast of Florida.

Analysis of environmental conditions reveals that the wind shear values around this low pressure system are quite strong and immediate development is highly unlikely.

It is anticipated that this low pressure system will head northward over the next couple of days and move onshore somewhere along the South Carolina and eastern North Carolina coastline later Friday into Saturday.

Even though the environmental conditions look unfavorable for development and that none of the model guidance show any sort of significant development, I still want to keep an eye on this low pressure system.

At the minimum, it’s going to bring an increase in rainfall, gusty onshore winds and rough surf along the entire Carolina coastline beginning on Thursday and continuing into this weekend. In addition, rainfall from this storm system is also expected to stream northeastward and affect coastal parts of the Mid-Atlantic and much of Southern New England on Friday night into Saturday.

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Colorado State University Increases Their Forecast Numbers Even More In The Latest Hurricane Season Forecast: Even though the tropics should stay fairly quiet for the next week or two, it is expected that things will probably become active again near the end of this month into the first part of August. This will be opening salvo of what’s likely to be an extremely active rest of the hurricane season.

Yesterday, Colorado State University posted their latest forecast for the rest of the hurricane season. In it, they are forecasting 25 named storms in total, 12 of those storms becoming hurricanes in total and 6 of those hurricanes becoming major hurricanes.

A huge harbinger to an extremely active hurricane season is when early activity in June and July occurs in the deep tropical Atlantic (the area between the Lesser Antilles and the coast of Africa). The formation, track and overwhelming strength of Hurricane Beryl is a huge sign that this is going to be an extremely active hurricane season.

Additionally, over 80 percent of the deep tropical Atlantic is at record or near-record warmth. This, combined, with the lowest wind shear as compared to average for early July that we’ve recorded is another reason why we’re looking at such an active rest of the hurricane season.

Even more concerning are the analog years they are looking at for the rest of this hurricane season. The analog years are 1886, 1926 (Great Miami Hurricane), 1933 (Record busy hurricane season with a Florida hurricane and the Chesapeake-Potomac Hurricane), 1995 (Another record active hurricane season with Hurricanes Luis and Marilyn, as well as Hurricane Opal), 2005 (Need I say more about this crazy awful season), 2010 and 2020.

A look at the latest seasonal forecast from the European model reveals a very unsettling look. It is now forecasting the potential for most of the rest of the activity to occur across the western Atlantic and the possibility of a landfall heavy rest of the season. The highest concentration of potential activity looks to be the Caribbean, the eastern Gulf of Mexico, much of Florida and a landfall signature up the East Coast of the United States.

The entire rest of the hurricane season looks extremely ugly and unfortunately there may be many more landfalling storms.

The next tropical weather discussion will be issued on Thursday.

Beryl continues to push inland across East Texas at the time of this writing with the center just to the south-southeast of Tyler.

While the wind and storm surge parts of the storm have subsided, there is now the threat for heavy rain with flash flooding and a threat for tornadoes across much of East Texas and western Louisiana. Right now as I write this, there are 11 tornado warnings in effect centered right near the border of east Texas and northwest Louisiana.

It is expected that Beryl will continue to weaken as it heads to the north-northeast from east Texas into Arkansas during tonight into Tuesday morning. The remnants of Beryl are then expected to head into the Ohio Valley by Wednesday where it’ll link up with a frontal boundary and dissipate.

Heavy rain with the threat for flooding will be a concern across a large area from TexArkAna northeastward into the Ohio Valley and the Great Lakes region over the next couple of days.

The tornado threat with Beryl will continue through tonight across east Texas, western Louisiana and southern Arkansas. This tornado threat will spread into the lower Ohio Valley on Tuesday and then into parts of southern New York State and northern Pennsylvania on Wednesday.

Looking beyond Beryl – It looks like things will quiet down in a big way for at least the next week or so with no tropical development expected anywhere across the Atlantic, Caribbean and Gulf of Mexico.

The next timeframe that we’re going to have to look at for potential tropical development is towards the end of this month into the first part of August. Model guidance seems to suggest a new upward motion pulse of the Madden Julian Oscillation to cross the Atlantic around that time. This looks to potentially help to create an environment that’s more favorable for tropical development right at the end of this month into the first part of August. It’s something that I’ll be keeping a close watch on and will have more as we get closer in time.

This will be the last update on Beryl. I will be taking tomorrow and probably Wednesday off with the next tropical weather discussion scheduled to be posted on Thursday.

Beryl officially made landfall near Matagorda at about 5 am EDT/4 am CDT this morning as a 80 mph hurricane.

Reports from across southeastern Texas at the time of this writing include a 54 mph wind gust in Pearland, a 67 mph wind gust in Galveston, a 89 mph wind gust in Palacios and a 79 mph wind gust in Angleton. Also, as noted in the update below, wind gusts to 91 mph have been reported in San Bernard and a wind gust to 92 mph has been reported in Freeport.

The center of Beryl is expected to track near or just west of downtown Houston by about 9-10 am CDT this morning before passing just east of College Station by early this afternoon.

This means that southeast Texas still has many more hours to go with the strong winds and the heavy rain.

Heavy rain with flash flooding is expected to occur across the entire Houston Metro this morning with rainfall rates of up to 3-4 inches per hour expected. In addition, tropical storm force sustained winds with wind gusts to 70-90 mph will continue across areas south of I-10 with areas near and north of I-10 expected to see tropical storm force sustained winds with wind gusts to 40-65 mph expected throughout this morning.

Satellite imagery, radar imagery and reports from reconnaissance aircraft indicate that Beryl is gradually strengthening. An eyewall seems to be forming on the northern and eastern sides of the storm, however, dry air still seems to be intruding into the storm on its southern and southwestern sides. This dry air is good news because it’ll likely slow down any chances Beryl will rapidly strengthen over the next several hours.

One change in Beryl is that the storm is now moving nearly due north, instead of the expected north-northwest track. This means that the center of the storm is probably going to make landfall further up the Texas coast, somewhere near Freeport and Surfside Beach. This almost due north track will also potentially bring the core of the storm right over Houston during Monday morning.

My Latest Thinking As Of Sunday Night Is For Beryl to strengthen over the next several hours and I still think that it could be right on the cusp between a Category 1 and Category 2 hurricane with 90-100 mph winds when it makes landfall near Freeport and Surfside Beach between about 6 am and 9 am CDT Monday morning.

This also means that hurricane conditions with wind gusts of up to 90-100 mph is looking increasingly more likely in areas from Freeport and Surfside Beach northeastward through Galveston Island to High Island. Hurricane conditions are also looking more likely across areas a little further inland into Alvin, Pearland, Houston and The Woodlands. The worst part of the storm looks to be from just before sunrise until about midday or so on Monday. In addition to the winds, a storm surge of 5 to 8 feet can be expected around Galveston, Galveston Bay and the Houston Ship Channel. Rainfall totals of 6 to 10 inches can be expected from later tonight through Monday.

Further down the coast, areas around Matagorda Bay southward to Corpus are likely to miss the core of Beryl, but tropical storm conditions are still expected later tonight into much of Monday. In addition, a storm surge of 2 to 4 feet and rainfall totals of 1 to 3 inches looks likely.

Further up the coast, areas around Port Arthur, Sabine Pass, Lake Charles and Cameron also looks to miss out on the core of Beryl, but with the more northerly track of the storm, it appears that tropical storm conditions could occur during the day Monday. In addition, a storm surge of 2 to 4 feet can be expected, along with rain totals of 2 to 5 inches.

Across areas further inland across the parts of Texas that are east of I-35, it appears that Beryl will bring heavy rain and flash flood concerns all the way up into areas of North & Northeast Texas that are east of I-35 and east of Dallas during Monday into Tuesday.

Additionally, strong winds with gusts of up to 50-60 mph is likely to occur across areas east of I-35 as far inland as I-20 during Monday and Monday night.

Tropical Storm Beryl: Beryl is becoming better organized today with satellite imagery revealing deep convection firing near the center and the entire storm taking on a more symmetrical shape. Radar loops from Brownsville indicates that an eyewall may be trying to form with the entire eye structure beginning to constrict. We are now beginning the strengthening that I expected would occur. Additional strengthening is expected to occur this afternoon and tonight right up to landfall and in fact, Beryl may continue to strengthen for a while as it comes inland over southeastern Texas during Monday. Most of the intensity guidance caps Beryl off at about a 75-85 mph hurricane by the time it makes landfall Monday morning. It should be noted though that the intensity guidance is now forecasting about a 43 percent chance for Beryl to strengthen into a 90-95 mph hurricane by landfall and a 28 percent chance for Beryl to strengthen to a 100 mph hurricane by the it makes landfall on Monday morning.

Given that the wind shear values are expected to be 5 knots or less the rest of today and only increase to about 10 knots tonight over some extremely warm Gulf waters, I think that a fair amount of strengthening is likely over the next 18-24 hours and my take is that I still think that Beryl will be about a 100 mph hurricane when it makes landfall along the Texas coast just east of Matagorda Bay during Monday morning.

My recommendation to you that if you are on the middle Texas coast around Matagorda Bay to prepare for a Category 2 to even a low end Category 3 hurricane with 100-115 mph winds.

Beryl is pushing to the northwest and a turn more to the north-northwest is expected to occur later today. In terms of where Beryl will come ashore on the Texas coast, it looks like a landfall right in the Matagorda and Freeport areas seems most plausible between sunrise and mid-morning on Monday as a 100 mph hurricane.

Once Beryl moves inland, the storm will be moving a fairly quick forward speed and this will lead to heavy rain and flash flooding to occur as far inland as northeast Texas, southwestern, western and northern Arkansas and southern and eastern Missouri.

To Sum Up My Latest Thinking – I am forecasting that Beryl will cross the Texas coast right in the Matagorda and Freeport areas as a 100 mph Category 2 hurricane between sunrise and mid-morning Monday.

This sort of track will produce tropical storm conditions to occur across the entire Houston and Galveston areas and hurricane conditions to occur from Freeport and Sargent southwestward to Matagorda Bay.

It does look like Beryl will probably still be strengthening when it’s making landfall and this will make for a pretty nasty storm. The reason why is because strengthening storms at landfall can easily mix down the stronger winds from aloft right to the ground.

Here Are My Latest Expected Impacts From Beryl For Those Of You Along The Texas Coast:

For Those Of You Along The Lower & Middle Texas Coast, Including Corpus Christi: Tropical storm force winds are expected during tonight into the day on Monday. The worst part of the storm looks to be from just after midnight tonight until about midday Monday.

In addition, a storm surge of up to 2 to 4 feet above ground level can be expected as well as rain totals of 1 to 3 inches during tonight and Monday.

For Those Of You In Matagorda Bay, Including Port Lavaca, Port O’Connor, Freeport & Sargent: Hurricane conditions with the potential for wind gusts of well over 100 mph can be expected during the worst part of the storm, which looks to be from after midnight tonight until about midday Monday.

Before that though, tropical storm force winds are likely to overspread Matagorda Bay during this evening with steadily worsening weather conditions expected by midnight tonight.

In addition to this, a storm surge of 4 to 6 feet above ground level and rain totals of 8 to 12 inches can be expected tonight and Monday.

All hurricane preparations need to be done by sunset today. Follow all guidance and evacuation orders from local officials.

For Those Of You In Galveston & Houston: Tropical storm force winds are expected to overspread the Houston-Galvestion area during this evening and then continue through the late night hours of tonight and during much of the day on Monday. The worst part of this storm looks to be from well after midnight tonight until midday Monday when wind gusts of up to 70-75 mph can be expected.

The western end of Galveston Island, Jamaica Beach and Treasure Island has a decent shot at receiving sustained hurricane force winds with wind gusts in the 80-100 mph range at the time of landfall around sunrise Monday morning.

In addition, a storm surge of 3 to 5 feet above ground level and rain totals of 5 to 10 inches can be expected during tonight and Monday.

The Houston-Galveston area will be on the very dirty side of this storm and areas near and south of I-10 will see sustained winds of 45-65 mph and gusts of up to 70-75 mph. Widespread power outages are a good bet across areas near and south of I-10.

For areas in Houston that are north of I-10, the rain will be the bigger threat, however, sustained winds of 25-40 mph with gusts of up to 50 mph look likely from after midnight tonight through Monday morning. Isolated to perhaps scattered power outages are possible.

All preparations for Beryl need to be done by sunset today. This really goes for those of you that are south of I-10 where some pretty rough weather can be expected, including very gusty winds, heavy rain with flooding and a storm surge. Follow all guidance and evacuation orders from local officials

For The Upper Texas Coast & Southwestern Louisiana, Including Port Arthur, Beaumont and Lake Charles: This looks to be mainly a rain event for the upper Texas coast and across southwestern Louisiana. This rain looks to occur throughout late tonight through the day on Monday with rain totals of 2 to 5 inches expected.

For Areas Further Inland Across Texas That Are East Of I-35: Beryl will probably also bring heavy rain and flash flood concerns all the way up into areas of North & Northeast Texas that are east of I-35 and east of Dallas during Monday into Tuesday.

Additionally, strong winds with gusts of up to 50-60 mph is likely to occur across areas east of I-35 as far inland as I-20 during Monday and Monday night.

Model Track Forecast:

Satellite Imagery:

An update will be sent out between 10 pm and midnight this evening unless there are significant changes to the forecast this afternoon.

Tropical Storm Beryl: Overall, there aren’t a whole lot of changes to the forecast I sent out earlier today concerning Beryl. Satellite imagery at the time of this writing shows that the southern and eastern sides of the circulation of Beryl are nearly void of convection. Deep convection seems to be constantly trying to fire on the northern and western sides of Beryl. I think this disheveled look has to do with the 15 knots of wind shear which is likely pushing drier air into the circulation. As long as dry air is being pushed into Beryl by the wind shear, then we will likely not see any wholesale changes in terms of strengthening.

It is expected that the wind shear over Beryl will decrease to less than 10 knots by Sunday morning and may decrease further to less than 5 knots by Sunday afternoon and remain at 5 knots or less right into Sunday night. This light wind shear environment combined with the very warm waters of the Gulf will probably help to moisten up the atmosphere around Beryl leading to strengthening to commence during the day on Sunday. In fact, it still looks likely that a round of rapid strengthening could occur during Sunday night into the first part of Monday morning as Beryl approaches the Texas coast for a landfall near Matagorda Bay.

My Thinking As Of Saturday Night At 11:30 pm EDT/10:30 pm Is For Beryl to cross the Texas coast somewhere between Matagorda Island and Freeport as a Category 2 hurricane with about 100 mph maximum winds during Monday morning. This sort of track would lead to tropical storm conditions to occur across the entire Houston and Galveston areas and hurricane conditions to occur from Freeport and Sargent southwestward through Matagorda Bay and Matagorda Island.

As I already mentioned, I do think that Beryl could undergo a round of rapid strengthening during Sunday night into the first part of Monday morning as it’s making landfall. This will, obviously, make for a pretty nasty storm as strengthening storms at landfall can easily mix down the stronger winds from aloft right to the ground.

Here Are My Latest Expected Impacts From Beryl For Those Of You Along The Texas Coast:

For Those Of You Along The Lower & Middle Texas Coast, Including Corpus Christi: Tropical storm force winds with the very real possibility of hurricane force winds can be expected during Sunday night into much of the day on Monday. The worst part of the storm looks to be from about sunrise Monday morning until about midday Monday. In addition, a storm surge of up to 3 to 5 feet above ground level can be expected as well as rain totals of 3 to 6 inches during Sunday night and Monday.

My recommendation is that you should have your hurricane preparations done by sunset Sunday. Also, follow all guidance and evacuation orders from local officials.

For Those Of You In Matagorda Bay, Including Port Lavaca & Port O’Connor: Hurricane conditions with the potential for wind gusts of well over 100 mph can be expected during the worst part of the storm, which looks to be from sunrise Monday morning until about midday Monday. Before that though, tropical storm force winds are likely to overspread Matagorda Bay during Sunday evening with worsening weather conditions expected throughout the late night hours of Sunday night through sunrise Monday morning.

In addition to this, a storm surge of 3 to 5 feet above ground level and rain totals of 8 to 12 inches can be expected during Sunday night and Monday.

All hurricane preparations need to be done by sunset Sunday. Also, follow all guidance and evacuation orders from local officials.

For Those Of You In Galveston & Houston: Tropical storm force winds are expected to overspread the Houston-Galvestion area during Sunday evening and then continue through the late night hours of Sunday night into much of the day on Monday. The worst part of this storm looks to be from about sunrise Monday morning until midday Monday when wind gusts of up to 70-75 mph can be expected.

In addition, a storm surge of 2 to 4 feet above ground level and rain totals of 4 to 8 inches can be expected during late Sunday night and all day Monday.

The Houston-Galveston area will be on the very dirty side of this storm with very poor weather conditions expected throughout Sunday night and Monday.

My recommendation is that you should be prepared for some very gusty winds during the day on Monday, along with flood issues from the heavy rain and the storm surge. Follow all guidance and any evacuation orders from local officials.

For The Upper Texas Coast & Southwestern Louisiana, Including Port Arthur, Beaumont and Lake Charles: This looks to be mainly a rain event for the upper Texas coast and across southwestern Louisiana. This rain looks to occur throughout the day on Monday with rain totals of 3 to 5 inches expected.

Elsewhere, Beryl will probably also bring heavy rain and flash flood concerns all the way up into areas of North & Northeast Texas that are east of I-35 and east of Dallas during Monday into Tuesday.

Another update on Beryl will be posted sometime between late morning Sunday and early afternoon Sunday.

Tropical Storm Beryl: During the overnight hours into this morning, Beryl spinned down some after it sucked in some dry air on its southern and western sides. Since then, it seems as if Beryl is trying to strengthen again with satellite imagery showing deep convection firing near the center of the storm. Additionally, it seems an eye feature may be trying to form with Beryl. Also, reconnaissance aircraft have reported a central barometric pressure of 997 millibars, a drop from 1001 millibars, which was recorded earlier this morning. Reconnaissance aircraft are also reporting about a 40 percent eyewall that has formed, along with severe turbulence being reported in the deeper convection. These are all signs that Beryl seems to be really trying to gather strength once again.

Analysis of intensity guidance indicates that the wind shear values are still expected to fall to below 10 knots by late tonight and Sunday morning and remain at less than 10 knots all day Sunday and all of Sunday night. Additionally, the SHIPS guidance seems to be showing about a 14 percent chance for rapid strengthening to a 110 to 130 mph hurricane in just the next 48 hours. This is 3 times the normal chances for rapid strengthening. This is a bit concerning and is something that’ll need to be watched closely, especially with the fact that Beryl seems to be trying to organize and strengthen again.

Beryl is expected to turn to a northwest heading in response to steering from an upper level trough over the central United States. The model guidance seem to be honing in now on a forecast that takes the center of Beryl on the middle Texas coast very near Matagorda Bay, although the range of possible track solutions are from about Corpus to just east of Matagorda Bay between late Monday morning and early Monday afternoon. Where exactly Beryl crosses the coast is going to hinge on its exact direction. A northwesterly track would probably lead to the center of the storm crossing the coast near Corpus while a more north-northwesterly track would lead to the storm crossing the coast closer to Matagorda Bay.

My Thinking As Of Right Now Is For Beryl to cross the Texas coast somewhere between Matagorda Island and Freeport as a Category 2 hurricane with about 100 mph maximum winds around midday Monday. This sort of track would lead to tropical storm conditions to occur across the entire Houston and Galveston areas and hurricane conditions to occur from Freeport and Sargent southwestward through Matagorda Bay and Matagorda Island.

It should be noted that Beryl could undergo a last minute spurt of some real strengthening during late Sunday night and Monday morning as the storm is making landfall. This will, obviously, make for a pretty nasty storm as strengthening storms at landfall can easily mix down the stronger winds from aloft right to the ground.

Here Are My Latest Expected Impacts From Beryl For Those Of You Along The Texas Coast:

For Those Of You Along The Lower & Middle Texas Coast, Including Corpus Christi: Tropical storm force winds with the very real possibility of hurricane force winds can be expected from late Sunday night into much of the day on Monday. The worst part of the storm looks to be from mid to late Monday morning into the first half of Monday afternoon. In addition, a storm surge of up to 3 to 5 feet above ground level can be expected as well as rain totals of 3 to 6 inches during Sunday night and Monday.

My recommendation is that you should take this weekend to prepare for hurricane conditions and to follow all guidance and evacuation orders from local officials.

For Those Of You In Matagorda Bay, Including Port Lavaca & Port O’Connor: Hurricane conditions with the potential for wind gusts of well over 100 mph can be expected during the worst part of the storm, which looks to be from mid-morning Monday until mid-afternoon Monday. Before that though, tropical storm force winds are likely to overspread Matagorda Bay late Sunday night with worsening weather conditions expected throughout Monday morning.

In addition to this, a storm surge of 3 to 5 feet above ground level and rain totals of 8 to 12 inches can be expected during Sunday night and Monday.

You need to take this weekend to prepare for hurricane conditions with these preparations completed by sunset Sunday. Also, follow all guidance and evacuation orders from local officials.

For Those Of You In Galveston & Houston: Tropical storm force winds look likely throughout the day on Monday with the potential for wind gusts of up to 70-75 mph. The worst part of the storm looks to be from late Monday morning into much of Monday afternoon.

In addition, a storm surge of 2 to 4 feet above ground level and rain totals of 4 to 8 inches can be expected during late Sunday night and all day Monday.

My recommendation is that you should be prepared for some very gusty winds during the day on Monday, along with flood issues from the heavy rain and the storm surge. Follow all guidance and any evacuation orders from local officials.

For The Upper Texas Coast & Southwestern Louisiana, Including Port Arthur, Beaumont and Lake Charles: This looks to be mainly a rain event for the upper Texas coast and across southwestern Louisiana. This rain looks to occur throughout the day on Monday with rain totals of 3 to 5 inches expected.

Elsewhere, Beryl will probably also bring heavy rain and flash flood concerns all the way up into areas of North & Northeast Texas that are east of I-35 and east of Dallas during Monday into Tuesday.

Model Track Forecast:

Satellite Imagery:

The next tropical weather discussion will be issued on Sunday.

Tropical Storm Beryl: The center of Beryl is now back over the water in the southern Gulf of Mexico, The trip over the Yucatan Peninsula has taken a toll on the overall structure of Beryl with the storm having weakened to a 60 mph tropical storm and the entire storm structure now tilted.

While I do still think that Beryl will very likely strengthen once again as it pushes across the Gulf of Mexico this weekend, it will take some time to do so. This is obviously very good news as the longer it takes Beryl to organize, the less it’ll be able to strengthen and the “weaker” the storm will be once it reaches the Texas coast.

That said, don’t let the lack of organization of Beryl this evening lure you into a sense of security that Beryl will not be that big of a deal. The environmental conditions are expected to be favorable for strengthening throughout this weekend. In fact, the intensity guidance continues to insist that the wind shear values will decrease to less than 10 knots by Sunday morning and may even drop to less than 5 knots of wind shear by Sunday evening. If this occurs, it would mean that the environment could be extremely favorable for strengthening during the day on Sunday and I do think it’s quite plausible that Beryl will strengthen right up through landfall along the middle Texas coast on Monday morning.

More concerning is that the track model guidance for Beryl continues to shift a little further east with each new model run. In fact, the latest consensus guidance now forecasts the center of Beryl to cross the Texas coast near Port Lavaca and Port O’Connor on Monday morning. Additionally, a large cluster of the European ensemble model guidance tracks now take Beryl onshore between Galveston Bay and Matagorda Bay on Monday morning. These new shifts to the east in the forecast track of Beryl is now putting Houston and Galveston even closer to seeing hurricane conditions Sunday night and Monday and it is something that needs to be watched extremely closely.

Here Are My Latest Recommendations For Those Of You On The Texas Coast:

For Those Of You Along The Lower & Middle Texas Coast, Including Corpus Christi: Even though the track forecast of Beryl has shifted a little further away from the Corpus area, you should continue to prepare for hurricane conditions, just in case. The angle that Beryl will be approaching the coast is such that any small shifts to the west in the track would put hurricane conditions right into Corpus and Padre Island. Finally, follow all guidance and orders from local officials as evacuations are probably going to be needed.

For Those Of You In Matagorda Bay, Including Port Lavaca & Port O’Connor: Hurricane conditions are now looking likely for Matagorda Bay Sunday night and Monday and this means that you should definitely prepare for hurricane conditions. Follow all guidance and orders from local officials as evacuations will likely be needed.

For Those Of You In Galveston & Houston: At the minimum, tropical storm conditions look likely across the Galveston-Houston area Sunday night and Monday. That said, any more shifts to the east in the forecast track of Beryl would put hurricane conditions right over Galveston and Houston. I strongly urge all interests in the Galveston-Houston area to closely monitor the progress of Beryl. In addition to this, locally heavy rainfall and moderate coastal flooding looks likely from late Sunday through Monday and Tuesday.

For The Upper Texas Coast, Including Port Arthur and Beaumont: Even though it looks like the upper Texas coast may escape the core impacts of Beryl, this is not a totally sure thing. This means that it’s best to monitor things very closely in terms of Beryl’s track and strength. At the minimum, some locally heavy rainfall is possible later Sunday through Monday and Tuesday, as well as minor to moderate coastal flooding.

Bottom Line Is That everyone, including residents, visitors, vacationers and beachgoers along the Texas coast need to be aware that Beryl poses a serious threat and impacts from the hurricane will begin as early as Sunday. I urge you to check back frequently throughout this weekend for the latest Beryl updates. Also, follow guidance and orders from local officials.

A new discussion will be posted between late morning and mid-afternoon Saturday.

Hurricane Beryl: After strengthening once again late yesterday, Beryl made landfall early this morning on the Yucatan Peninsula just north of Tulum as a Category 2 hurricane. It is expected that Beryl will move back over water into the southern Gulf of Mexico by this evening and we’ll have to see what sort of structure the storm has by then.

One thing to note is that Beryl isn’t weakening a whole lot as it pushes across the Yucatan Peninsula and radar imagery from the Yucatan Peninsula reveals that the hurricane still has a fairly well developed structure. This means that Beryl probably will have no problem at all in strengthening as it heads across the Gulf of Mexico this weekend. In fact, it’s not out of the realm of possibilities that Beryl could become a major hurricane once again as it approaches the Texas coast later this weekend.

I Strongly Urge All Interests Along The Texas Coast & Especially The Lower & Middle Texas Coast to pay extremely close attention to the latest regarding Beryl. The trends in all of the model guidance is for a more northerly track and a stronger storm. You have the rest of today, all of Saturday and the first half of Sunday to prepare for Beryl.

In addition, Storm Surge, Hurricane and Tropical Storm Watches will likely be issued later today for northeastern Mexico and the lower and middle Texas coast.

Forecast Track & Strength: Once Beryl emerges into the southern Gulf of Mexico tonight, it’ll likely begin strengthening again due to the combination of very warm Gulf waters and wind shear values that are anticipated to be favorable. In fact, model guidance is showing forecast wind shear values to drop to 5 knots of less during the day on Sunday as Beryl is approaching the Texas coast.

The weather pattern setup this weekend that will help steer Beryl will include an upper level trough of low pressure over the central United States. This upper level trough combined with the further north track of Beryl should help the storm track further north than what was expected even 12-24 hours ago. In fact, a majority of the ensemble model guidance now show Beryl turning to the northwest and even the north-northwest right into the Texas coast with most forecasting a track taking the storm right into an area between just east of Port Lavaca and just south of Corpus Christi.

This is going to lead to an extremely difficult track forecast as how sharp the turn to the northwest and north-northwest and when it actually occurs will be extremely important in determining who sees what in terms of impacts. If there is a landfall as far north as Port Lavaca would mean tropical storm conditions would occur as far north as Galveston Island and parts of Houston and hurricane conditions would occur in the Freeport and Sargent areas. On the other hand, a landfall further south towards the area just south of Corpus would mean full-blown hurricane conditions to occur in Corpus Christi and little or no impacts north and east of Port O’Connor.

As for the potential strength of Beryl when it comes ashore along the Texas coast is also something that’ll need to be watched extremely closely. The environmental conditions look quite favorable for strengthening, especially on Sunday as it approaches the Texas coast. I think a Category 2 or even a Category 3 hurricane landfall on the Texas coast is well within the realm of possibilities and should be prepared as such.

Bottom Line Is That everyone, including residents, visitors, vacationers and beachgoers along the Texas coast should be aware that Beryl poses a serious threat and impacts from the hurricane will begin as early as Sunday. I urge you to check back frequently throughout this weekend for the latest Beryl updates. Also, follow guidance and orders from local officials.

Here Are My Latest Recommendations For Those Of You On The Texas Coast:

For Those Of You In The Rio Grande Valley: If you live in an area that easily floods, please be aware that heavy rainfall with the threat for flooding is likely Sunday through Tuesday. Also, tropical storm force winds look to be confined to Brownsville and the rest of the lower Texas coast.

For Those Of You Along The Lower & Middle Texas Coast, Including Corpus Christi: Prepare now for potential hurricane conditions that are expected from late Sunday into Monday. Also, follow all guidance and orders from local officials as evacuations are probably going to be needed.

For Those Of You In Matagorda Bay, Including Port Lavaca & Port O’Connor: Hurricane conditions cannot be ruled out, especially if Beryl decides to take a further north track. Best to be prepared now, just in case. This means that it’s not a bad idea to prepare for hurricane conditions.

For Those Of You In Galveston & Houston: While it currently looks like the Houston-Galveston area will escape the core effects of Beryl, this is not a completely sure thing. This means that it’s best to monitor things very closely in terms of Beryl’s track and strength. At the minimum, some locally heavy rainfall is possible later Sunday through Monday and Tuesday, as well as minor to moderate coastal flooding.

Model Track Forecast:

Satellite Imagery:

The next tropical weather discussion will be issued on Saturday.

Hurricane Beryl: It looks like Beryl may be strengthening once again as satellite imagery indicates deeper thunderstorm activity is wrapping around the center of the hurricane. In fact, it seems as if an eye may be trying to form once again. This is all occurring, in spite of around 20 knots of wind shear.

It appears very likely that Beryl come ashore on the Yucatan Peninsula just a little south of Cozumel early Friday morning as a hurricane. A track across the Yucatan Peninsula is then very likely during Friday morning with Beryl exiting the Yucatan Peninsula near about Progresso by Friday evening as a tropical storm.

This all means that hurricane force winds, heavy rain and a significant storm surge is expected across the Yucatan Peninsula tonight through a good part of the day on Friday. It is very likely that Cozumel will see hurricane force winds and Cancun probably will end up with tropical storm force winds with wind gusts of near hurricane force.

Where Is Beryl Going In The Gulf Of Mexico: Beryl is expected to push into the southwestern Gulf of Mexico late Friday night and the big question then becomes how much will it strengthen as it heads west-northwestward during Saturday and Sunday.

Beryl has been a very resilient and stubborn hurricane and I think it’s possible that it’ll take advantage of any areas of favorable environmental conditions. In fact, the intensity guidance seems to be pointing towards wind shear values decreasing to 10 knots or less from about Saturday afternoon until it makes landfall. This is something that’ll need to be watched extremely closely because if the environment does become favorable, it could lead to steady strengthening right up to landfall.

A look at the model guidance forecast in terms of track reveals that a majority of the model guidance does show a landfall very near the Mexico-Texas border late Sunday night or Monday morning. That said, it should be noted that the latest Canadian and European model guidance are the furthest south with a landfall about 100 miles south of the Texas border. The GFS model shows a little further north track with a landfall about 50 miles south of the Texas border.

As for the ensemble model guidance, much like the last couple of days, the ensemble members that forecast a weaker storm are further south into eastern Mexico while the ensemble members that show a stronger storm are further north into the lower and middle Texas coast.

This, in turn, makes for a difficult forecast because if Beryl ends up strengthening more than what the guidance shows, then a track towards the Texas coast would need to be strongly entertained and it is something that’ll need to be watched extremely closely.

My Recommendation For Those Of You On The Middle & Lower Texas Coast & In South Texas From Brownsville To Port O’Connor Is That you should keep very close tabs on the progress of Beryl in case the core of this storm heads your way. At this point, landfall would occur late Sunday night with impacts beginning during the day on Sunday and the worst of the storm occurring Sunday night and Monday morning.

My thinking is that a landfall right along the Texas-Mexico border seems most plausible late Sunday night as a hurricane putting the lower Texas coast well within the area that sees hurricane conditions.

Once inland, it still looks likely that Beryl will slow way down in forward speed leading to a prolonged heavy rainfall event across South Texas that lasts from Sunday until at least Tuesday. This is increasingly becoming a concern across South Texas and the Rio Grande Valley. While your area needs rain very badly, a nearly stalled tropical system can cause big problems in the way of excessive rainfall and flooding. Everyone across South Texas should also monitor the heavy rainfall potential with Beryl, as well.

I will reiterate and stress that everyone with interests along the middle and especially the lower Texas coast, including Corpus Christi, Padre Island and Brownsville, need to closely monitor the latest updates with Beryl, especially given the long Holiday weekend that’ll be packed with vacationers and beachgoers.

Model Track Forecast:

Satellite Imagery:

The next tropical weather discussion will be issued on Friday.