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Hurricane Milton: And here we go again!! Less than 2 weeks after Helene made landfall, it appears very likely that Milton will impact the Florida Peninsula as a major hurricane. What is uncertain right now is where exactly the eye of the hurricane will make landfall along Florida’s West Coast. That said, there is a very high likelihood that a destructive storm surge of 10 to 15-plus feet will impact west-central and southwest Florida on Wednesday leading to the possibility of the worst surge in the Tampa Bay area since the 1921 hurricane. Additionally, widespread tropical storm to hurricane wind impacts and heavy rain and flood impacts are also expected across much of the rest of the Florida Peninsula.

Satellite imagery and reports from reconnaissance aircraft indicate that Milton is rapidly strengthening now. This rapid strengthening is expected to continue for at least the next couple of days and latest indications are that Milton may reach upper Category 3 strength or even Category 4 strength as it approaches Florida’s West Coast.

Those of you living in low-lying and surge prone areas along Florida’s West Coast from Naples northward to Cedar Key, including Tampa Bay, should follow all evacuation orders. If you are instructed to evacuate, then please do so, if you are able to.

Forecast Track: The track forecast of Milton is going to be extremely important in determining which parts of Florida’s West Coast sees the highest surge levels.

From now through Tuesday, it is expected that Milton will track near due east across the southern Gulf of Mexico and just north of the Yucatan Peninsula. This is a highly unusual direction of movement for a strong Gulf of Mexico hurricane. Because of this, there are extremely few other hurricanes that have done this in the historical database.

Once we get into late Tuesday and Wednesday, an upper level trough of low pressure over the eastern United States and a high pressure ridge over the Caribbean will turn Milton a little more to the east-northeast and northeast.

This east-northeast to northeast track will lead to Milton making landfall somewhere between the Nature Coast and Marco Island late Wednesday afternoon or Wednesday evening. Unfortunately, at this point, it’s still a bit too early to pick out exactly where Milton will make landfall. Any small deviations in the track will lead to larger track shifts once it approaches the West Coast of Florida and because of this, we aren’t sure yet whether the eye of Milton will track north of, right over or south of Tampa.

I will point out that the latest consensus hurricane track model shows a track that takes the eye of Milton inland very near Bradenton late Wednesday afternoon as a major hurricane and then crosses the Florida Peninsula Wednesday evening exiting near Titusville as still a hurricane.

Forecast Strength: Milton is expected to track within an environment that’s very favorable for rapid strengthening. This includes very low wind shear, very warm Gulf of Mexico waters and plenty of available moisture. Additionally, Milton is expected to pass right over the loop current located over the east-central Gulf of Mexico and this will probably give the hurricane an extra jolt of energy and strength.

I expect to see Milton rapidly strengthen into a major Category 3 hurricane as soon as Monday afternoon, if not sooner than that. It should be pointed out that an increasing number of intensity models are now forecasting Milton to become a Category 4 hurricane by Monday night or Tuesday with a few even forecasting it to become a Category 5 hurricane.

The question then becomes how much will wind shear increase around Milton near the time of landfall. Any increase in wind shear will help to weaken Milton a little as its making landfall. That said, I would still be preparing for a Category 3 to 4 hurricane along the west-central and southwest Florida coast that’ll bring a devastating to catastrophic storm surge to Florida’s West Coast.

My Thinking As Of Right Now Is for Milton to make landfall along Florida’s West Coast in the area around Bradenton, Sarasota and Venice late Wednesday afternoon as an upper end Category 3 to Category 4 hurricane with 120-135 mph winds. I then still think that Milton will cross the Florida Peninsula very near the I-4 corridor leading hurricane conditions to occur across not only Central Florida but also across the Space Coast of Florida and possibly into parts of the First Coast of Florida.

A couple of other things that I wanted to mention – First is that a storm moving from west to east into the west coast of Florida will have the worst storm surge on the south side of the storm and the worst winds will be on the north side of where it makes landfall. Milton is going to be impacting an area that’s already extremely vulnerable due to the impacts Helene just produced. This is, sadly, going to just add insult to injury. Start preparing now for this storm.

Also, those of you along Florida’s West Coast should be taking pictures with timestamps on them of the current conditions of their homes. Two claims from two different storms could be confusing and make filing those claims difficult.

Forecast Impacts:
Heavy Rain: Heavy rain with flooding is going to be a major impact with Milton and will affect a large part of the Florida Peninsula.

This heavy rain has already begun across parts of the Florida Peninsula and will continue right through the middle part of this coming week. Widespread rain totals of 4 to 8 inches are expected across much of the Florida Peninsula with totals of 10-12 inches possible along Florida’s West Coast and also across Central Florida & along the Space Coast.

Please take this rainfall induced flooding very seriously as low-lying and flood prone areas in Orlando, Tampa and Jacksonville will likely flood over the next few days.

Storm Surge: A devastating to catastrophic storm surge of 10 to 15-plus feet looks likely to occur on Wednesday into Wednesday night along Florida’s West Coast and in particular from about Tampa and points south.

At this point, areas from Sarasota southward through Naples and Fort Myers has a higher threat of seeing an extremely devastating storm surge. If you are in a surge zone, prepare now to evacuate and do so when ordered to.

As for the Tampa Bay area and areas around the west-central coast of Florida, there is a little more uncertainty as to how high the surge may get and this depends on where the eye of the hurricane crosses the coast. If the center of the hurricane passes to the south of Tampa Bay, an offshore wind would lead to very little surge. This would be an ideal scenario, for sure. On the other hand, if Milton moves right over Tampa or to the north of Tampa, onshore winds would drive a surge of 10 to 15 feet or more into Tampa Bay and these are levels not seen since the hurricanes of 1848 and 1921.

My recommendation to those of you in Tampa, St. Petersburg, Palm Harbor and Bradenton is to prepare for a worst case scenario and hope that it doesn’t happen. There is very little room for error when it comes to figuring out whether Milton will track over or to the north of Tampa or not and the consequences of not evacuating are extremely dire. You just can’t afford to roll the dice and risk your life by not evacuating. If your flood zone is told to evacuate, then evacuate, if you are able to.

Finally, given the recovery operations still ongoing along the west coast of Florida, this sort of a significant surge is going to not only hamper recovery operations, but will set those recovery efforts back significantly.

Wind: Hurricane force winds with significant impacts are going to be an issue across not only coastal parts of Western Florida, but also across inland parts of Central Florida, including Orlando Wednesday afternoon and Wednesday night. Also, hurricane conditions are expected on the eastern coast of Florida and in particular along the Space Coast Wednesday evening into the overnight hours of Wednesday night.

Elsewhere, tropical storm force winds are expected across the rest of the Florida Peninsula throughout Wednesday and Wednesday night. One area that may not see tropical storm conditions is far South Florida and the Keys.

Finally – I STRONGLY urge you to continue preparing across the Florida Peninsula and particularly along the West Coast of Florida for a major hurricane hit.

Nothing good is happening right now with Milton and I hate this is happening yet again!! We’re facing a compounded threat with few precedents in hurricane history, as only 1926, 1950, 2004, and 2005 saw two Category 3 or higher landfalls in Florida. It looks nearly certain that 2024 will join that list with Helene and now Milton going down as as a devastating one-two punch for Florida.

I know that we are all exhausted already. You are, I am. That is reality and I know that. Unfortunately, we also have to prepare and if necessary evacuate because the surge, wind and rain threat from Milton requires us to save your life and your family’s life and protect property.

Model Track Forecast:

Satellite Imagery:

Frequent updates and discussions on Milton will continue to be sent out as needed between now and Wednesday night.

Latest data is coming in for Milton and the overall takeaway is that an extremely serious situation looks likely for the West Coast of Florida.

It looks likely that Milton will rapidly strengthen and become a major Category 3 hurricane with 120-125 mph winds on Tuesday.

Milton is then expected to make landfall on the west coast of Florida very near Tampa as potentially a major hurricane with 115-125 mph winds by Wednesday evening. If this comes to pass, it would be a worst case scenario for the Tampa-St. Pete area.

A track right over or just north of Tampa would push a 15-plus foot storm surge right into Tampa Bay leading to extreme to catastrophic damage. This is an area that has not experienced a true major hurricane landfall since 1921.

On the other hand, should Milton track to the south of Tampa, it would spare the city a major storm surge and instead lead to a “blowout”, but instead that 10 to 15-plus foot storm surge would severely impact areas of west-central and southwest Florida, including Sarasota, Fort Myers and Naples.

In addition to the potential for severe damage along the west coast of Florida, Milton is expected to cross the Florida Peninsula right near the I-4 corridor leading to hurricane conditions to occur on both coasts of Florida, as well as across Central Florida, including Orlando.

Weather conditions will begin deteriorating rapidly during the day on Wednesday with the worst conditions expected across the Florida Peninsula and in particular near the I-4 corridor from Wednesday afternoon through Wednesday night to Thursday morning.

All interests across the Florida Peninsula and in particular along the West Coast of Florida and across the I-4 corridor should be getting ready NOW for a major hurricane. Also, if you are instructed to evacuate, then I strongly urge you to evacuate, if you are able to.

Updates and a new discussion will be sent out during Sunday with frequent updates on Milton sent out as needed.

Forecast Wind Swath:

Potential Storm Surge For Tampa Bay:

Potential Storm Surge For Sarasota-Fort Myers:

Potential Storm Surge For Naples:

Tropical Storm Milton has formed as of early this afternoon over the southwestern Gulf of Mexico. Milton has organized and strengthened much faster than what I certainly expected. This is extremely worrisome due to the expectation that Milton will strengthen significantly over the next few days becoming a hurricane as soon as Monday and then possibly a major hurricane before it makes landfall on the west-central coast of Florida on Wednesday.

I cannot emphasize enough how worried and concerned I am as to the potential significant hurricane impacts along not only the west coast of Florida, but also across much of the Florida Peninsula. In particular, the entire I-4 corridor could be hit particularly hard by Milton. Unfortunately, this looks like it might be another big hurricane hit.

The model guidance, as a whole, are in pretty good agreement with the future track of Milton. Overall, they take the storm inland somewhere between Cedar Key and Naples depending on the model guidance member. That said, the highest cluster of models take Milton onshore between Sarasota, Tampa and New Port Richey.

More specifically, both the GFS and European models forecast pretty significant strengthening with the GFS in particular forecasting Milton to be a very major hurricane at landfall. The European model shows a landfall near Tampa on Wednesday evening while the GFS model forecasts a landfall just north of Tampa during Wednesday morning.

The higher resolution hurricane models are even more aggressive with their forecast intensity of Milton with the HAFS model forecasting a nearly Category 5 hurricane on Tuesday night as it approaches the west coast of Florida. The HMON model also forecasts Milton to be near Category 5 hurricane strength near landfall on Wednesday. I am really hoping these models are “overcooked” and trend downward.

When looking at the forecast environmental conditions ahead of Milton, I can see why the models are becoming much more aggressive with their forecast strength of Milton.

Milton is expected to interact with an upper level trough of low pressure located to its north and because of this, it’ll be moving on a east-northeast track. This east-northeast track will line up with the upper level winds associated with the trough and thus the net wind shear over the storm will be extremely low. Also, the stronger Milton gets, the more outflow it’ll produce which will lead it to track a little more to the northeast. Because of this, a stronger Milton will track a little further to the north than a weaker storm. This is REALLY bad news for the Tampa area as a stronger hurricane could track north of Tampa pushing a very significant storm surge into the Bay.

Since it does look like Milton will be a significant hurricane, a life taking and property destroying storm surge along Florida’s West Coast is looking increasingly more likely. Because of this, I strongly urge all interests along Florida’s West Coast to prepare NOW for Milton and to also follow all evacuation recommendations.

My Thinking As Of Right Now Is for Milton to strengthen significantly over the next few days becoming a hurricane by or before Monday and then potentially becoming a major hurricane by Tuesday night.

This means that I think that Milton will make landfall along Florida’s West Coast near Sarasota around midday Wednesday as a major hurricane with 115-125 mph winds. I then think that Milton will cross the Florida Peninsula very near the I-4 corridor leading hurricane conditions to occur across not only Central Florida but also across the Space Coast of Florida and possibly into parts of the First Coast of Florida.

A couple of other things that I wanted to mention – First is that a storm moving from west to east into the west coast of Florida will have the worst storm surge on the south side of the storm and the worst winds will be on the north side of where it makes landfall. Milton is going to be impacting an area that’s already extremely vulnerable due to the impacts Helene just produced. This is, sadly, going to just add insult to injury. Start preparing now for this storm.

Also, those of you along Florida’s West Coast should be taking pictures with timestamps on them of the current conditions of their homes. Two claims from two different storms could be confusing and make filing those claims difficult.

Forecast Impacts:
Heavy Rain: A prolonged heavy rainfall event is expected prior to Milton arriving and this will lead to a significant flood threat across a large part of the Florida Peninsula.

The first round of heavy rain is expected during Sunday on both sides of the Florida Peninsula – From Tampa and points south on the west coast and from Vero Beach to Miami on the east coast.

The second round of heavy rain is expected during Monday across Central and South Florida.

The heavy rain associated with Milton is then expected to arrive late Tuesday night and then continue through Wednesday into Thursday morning.

Rainfall totals from Sunday to Thursday is expected to be in the 4 to 8 inch range across a large part of the Florida Peninsula and this will likely lead to flood problems.

Storm Surge: The storm surge threat from Milton looks a lot more significant than what was thought yesterday. If Milton does make landfall as a major hurricane, it’ll push a 8 to 16 foot storm into the West Coast of Florida, especially from about Palm Harbor and Tampa and points south.

Given the recovery operations still ongoing along the west coast of Florida, this sort of a significant surge is going to not only hamper recovery operations, but will set those recovery efforts back significantly.

Wind: It looks like hurricane force winds are quite possible across the entire I-4 corridor with Milton from areas Tampa through Orlando to the Space Coast during Wednesday.

Elsewhere, tropical storm force winds are expected across the rest of the Florida Peninsula from late Tuesday night through Wednesday. One area that may not see tropical storm conditions is far South Florida and the Keys.

Finally – I STRONGLY urge you to start preparing NOW across the Florida Peninsula and particularly along the West Coast of Florida for a major hurricane hit.

If it were me I’d be getting gas, groceries and water TODAY if I lived in the area I’ve highlighted in the map below:

Model Track Forecast:

Satellite Imagery:

Frequent updates and discussions on Milton will be sent out as needed in the coming days.

Tropical Depression Helene: Ex-Major Hurricane, now Tropical Depression Helene continues to produce a historic and utterly devastating flooding event across the southeastern United States. In addition, as of the time of this writing, there are still about 4 million power outages in the area between Florida and Virginia.

While I haven’t had time to dig extensively through the reports across the southeastern United States, I can say that the storm surge forecast of 15 to 20 feet will certainly verify along the Big Bend area of Florida.

Storm surge records were shattered at long-term tide stations from the Tampa area northward to Cedar Key and Steinhatchee. Based on the data available and preliminary photos in areas like Cedar Key, it’s almost certain areas of the Big Bend, including Fish Creek, Steinhatchee, Horseshoe Beach, Suwannee, and Cedar Key, saw the full extent of the 15 to 20 feet of storm surge forecast.

This was by far the worst modern hurricane to hit the Big Bend area of Florida and the northern part of the west coast of Florida.

A little further north, the flooding in western North Carolina and eastern Tennessee is about as bad as it gets.

As of late this afternoon, there are 12 “catastrophic” Flash Flood Emergencies in effect across the Appalachians. They range from southwestern Virginia to western North Carolina to eastern Tennessee. The criteria for issuing flash flood emergencies is much more stringent than that of the typical flash flood warning. There needs to be an imminent risk of severe damage and/or loss of life. At least 12 counties or communities are reconciling that at present, not to mention the ones that have already been through severe flash flooding and significant wind damage today.

Thankfully, the rain has finally come to an end across the southeastern United States into the Mid-Atlantic States. Sadly though, the damage has already been done.

The remnants of Helene are now expected to be a heavy rain and isolated flood producer across the Ohio Valley through Saturday with additional rain amounts of 1 to 3 inches expected across western Tennessee, western and central Kentucky and southern parts of Illinois, Indiana and Ohio.

Most sad of all is that the death toll associated with Helene is now up to about 47 – 18 in Georgia, 17 in South Carolina, 9 in Florida and 3 in North Carolina.

Finally, hurricane hunter aircraft were able to launch a drone into the eye of Helene on Thursday evening.

This drone spiraled downward and skimmed the top of the ocean, where it measured wind gusts as high as 158 mph before crashing into the Gulf as planned.

Elsewhere Across The Atlantic, Caribbean & The Gulf Of Mexico: There are a few other items to mention before I end this discussion.

We have Hurricane Isaac located over the open North Atlantic, which is expected to continue heading out into the open Atlantic.

We also have Tropical Storm Joyce, which is located over the central Tropical Atlantic. It should be noted that Joyce will curve northward this weekend and will not be a threat to anyone.

Also, I’m going to be keeping an eye on the area from the western Caribbean into the southern Gulf of Mexico where there’s the possibility that we could see tropical development during the second half of next week.

The model guidance aren’t in good agreement at all right now with solutions running from everything from a system that buries itself in the Bay of Campeche to a system that doesn’t become anything at all to a system that becomes a threat to some part of the northern and eastern Gulf Coast.

At this point though, I cannot say more than we do need to watch for tropical development that could be something to really look at in terms of threats to some part of the northern or eastern Gulf Coast around next weekend or during the first part of the week of October 7. That said, I definitely would not worry or be overly concerned about this.

Also, also, there’s the possibility that the area near the Leeward Islands might be an area to watch for a possible tropical system during the week of October 7. The model guidance seem to be suggesting that an area of disturbed weather will push westward across the central Tropical Atlantic during the first part of the week of October 7 and could end up being a threat to the Leeward Islands during the second half of the week of October 7. It should be pointed out that the model guidance seem to be a lot more interested in this becoming a viable tropical system over the one that we’ll be watching in the western Caribbean and southern Gulf of Mexico. Again though, I wouldn’t worry or be overly concerned about this, just keep an eye on it.

I will be back on Monday afternoon with a new discussion taking a look at everything. I’ll be using the weekend to refresh and recharge.

Helene has rapidly intensified over the last few hours with visible and infrared satellite imagery now showing a well established eye. Recent reports from reconnaissance aircraft indicate that Helene now has 125 mph maximum winds and a central barometric pressure of 951 millibars.

The wind field around Helene is huge with tropical storm force wind gusts occurring as far east as the Space Coast of Florida. Recent wind gusts include 71 mph in Bradenton, 67 mph in Naples and 58 mph in Miami.

I now think that it’s extremely likely that Helene will become a Category 4 hurricane with 130-135 mph winds and a central barometric pressure that probably fall into the 940-945 millibar range within the next 2-3 hours or so. This means that a Category 4 hurricane landfall on the area around the eastern parts of Apalachee Bay looks extremely likely between 11 pm and midnight tonight. Areas around Horseshoe Beach, Steinhatchee, Cross City and Perry will probably see the absolute worst that Helene can dish out with Category 3 to Category 4 winds likely.

It should be pointed out that no Category 4 or Category 5 hurricane has made landfall in the Florida Big Bend, including around Tallahassee since records began back in 1850. This means that an unprecedented hurricane landfall is about to happen tonight.

The forward movement of Helene is now accelerating and because of this, the destructive winds associated with the hurricane will be able to spread quite far inland. In fact, the damaging to destructive winds associated with Helene will reach the coast of the eastern Florida Panhandle and the Big Bend area of Florida between about 8 pm and 10 pm EDT/7 to 9 pm CDT and then spread inland across the eastern Florida Panhandle and the Big Bend area of Florida, including Tallahassee between 10 pm and midnight EDT/9 pm to 11 pm CDT.

Storm Surge: A storm surge of 15 to 20 feet is still expected along the Gulf Coast of Florida from Apalachee Bay through the Big Bend area of Florida. I TRULY hope everyone has gotten out of this area as a storm surge like this is just not survivable.

This 15 to 20 foot storm surge will spread inland as far as 10 miles across the Big Bend area of Florida and because of this a huge area of low-lying “dry land” adjacent to Apalachee Bay and the northern Nature Coast will become part of the Gulf of Mexico and be under 10 to 20 feet of rushing water.

This WILL BE a catastrophic and unsurvivable storm surge for Apalachee Bay.

If you are located east of the landfall point, which includes the entire west coast of Florida, a major surge event is almost guaranteed. This includes Tampa Bay where a 5 to 8 foot storm surge is expected and would be the worst surge event since the 1921 Tampa hurricane. Also, a 3 to 5 foot storm surge is expected across all of southwest Florida.

Wind: The wind impact from Helene will be widespread and very destructive in some areas.

The really severe hurricane force winds with Helene are expected to spread unusually far inland due to how strong the hurricane will be and how fast it’ll be moving.

Wind gusts of at least 100-125 mph can be expected across the Central & Eastern Florida Panhandle, including Tallahassee, the Big Bend area of Florida, the Nature Coast of Florida and across southern Georgia.

If you are located in Apalachee Bay, the Big Bend, and Tallahassee, your realistic worst case scenario is a hurricane that’s much, much worse than what Michael was like for you. If you don’t think that your house will withstand 100-plus mph winds (I’m looking at those of you with prefab homes, modular homes and trailers), head west!! Pensacola and Destin should be far enough. Also, if you live in a home with tall trees all around, you might want to strongly consider evacuating.

Rainfall: Heavy rain with major to catastrophic inland flooding is likely as Helene pushes inland over the next couple of days.

Of particular concern and worry is the area from northeastern Georgia through western South Carolina and western North Carolina. This area has already received 8 to 10 inches of rain over the past 2-3 days and the additional rainfall from Helene will lead to catastrophic flash flooding and landslides throughout this region.

This is expected to be one of the most significant and severe weather events to happen across the western Carolinas in the modern era. Record flood levels are expected. I strongly urge everyone from northeastern Georgia through the western Carolinas to take every weather warning extremely seriously as impacts will be life-threatening.

I just cannot stress how significant this flood event will be. Heed all evacuation orders if you live in a flood zone in northeastern Georgia and the western Carolinas. If you do not feel safe at your current location, go to a storm shelter.

The overall forecast for Helene hasn’t really changed since my last update.

The latest reports from reconnaissance aircraft show that Helene has strengthened to a Category 2 hurricane with 100 mph winds and a central barometric pressure of 960 millibars.

The weather is beginning to get rough across the Peninsula of Florida with rain bands from Helene pushing onshore.

The environment that Helene is expected to move over today will be very favorable for quick strengthening. This is why we’re expecting the hurricane to strengthen quickly over the next 12-18 hours and likely reach AT LEAST Category 3 intensity.

There are two factors that might work towards preventing Helene from becoming a total monstrous nightmare high end Category 4 or Category 5 hurricane.

The first is that it will be moving so fast in forward speed later today and tonight that it’ll run out of time to continue strengthening before it makes landfall.

The second factor is that the eye wall of the hurricane is actually made up of two concentric eye walls, instead of the usual one. As long as this is present, the strengthening of the hurricane will be slowed down. No guarantees on that, but it is a possible factor.

Even if Helene miraculously falls a little short of its current forecast strength of 130 mph (don’t count on it!), it’s simply too late for anything to fall apart to prevent a major, life taking, catastrophic disaster for areas from the Panhandle and Big Bend area of Florida through parts of Georgia, the Carolinas and eastern Tennessee.

Bottom Line Is That Helene is still expected to be a catastrophic major hurricane before and during its landfall in the Big Bend area of Florida this evening with major to catastrophic impacts expected from the eastern Florida Panhandle through the Big Bend area of Florida into parts of the west coast of Florida, mainly from Tampa and points north.

Storm Surge: A storm surge of 15 to 20 feet is still expected along the Gulf Coast of Florida from Apalachee Bay through the Big Bend area of Florida. I TRULY hope everyone has gotten out of this area as a storm surge like this is just not survivable. Storm surges are still expected to reach 20 feet above normal water levels in parts of coastal northwest Florida.

This 15 to 20 foot storm surge will spread inland as far as 10 miles across the Big Bend area of Florida and because of this a huge area of low-lying “dry land” adjacent to Apalachee Bay and the northern Nature Coast will become part of the Gulf of Mexico and be under 10 to 20 feet of rushing water.

This WILL BE a catastrophic and unsurvivable storm surge for Apalachee Bay. PLEASE, I BEG YOU, take all evacuation orders seriously!!

If you are located east of the landfall point, which includes the entire west coast of Florida, a major surge event is almost guaranteed. This includes Tampa Bay where a 5 to 8 foot storm surge is expected and would be the worst surge event since the 1921 Tampa hurricane. Also, a 3 to 5 foot storm surge is expected across all of southwest Florida.

It needs to be pointed out that the storm surge will likely begin to arrive along the eastern Florida Panhandle, Apalachee Bay, the Big Bend area of Florida and the west coast of Florida during this morning and only get worse from there.

I WILL BE BLUNT AGAIN – If you have been told to evacuate, YOU NEED TO LEAVE NOW!!! Go several miles inland to higher ground. The expected surge impacts from Helene are without living precedent and highly likely to happen. RUN INLAND FROM THE WATER!!

Wind: The wind impact from Helene will be widespread and very destructive in some areas.

It is likely that tropical storm force winds of 40-65 mph, which will easily knock out power and damage trees, will occur across all of Florida starting this morning in the Keys and South Florida Thursday morning and then push northward into North Florida by this afternoon.

The really severe hurricane force winds with Helene are expected to spread unusually far inland due to how strong the hurricane will be and how fast it’ll be moving. Wind gusts of 80-100 mph can be expected across the Central & Eastern Florida Panhandle, including Tallahassee, the Big Bend area of Florida, the Nature Coast of Florida and across southern Georgia.

The absolutely worst and catastrophic winds that exceed 115-125 mph can be expected along the coast from Steinhatchee to Apalachicola and then spread inland through Tallahassee towards Thomasville during Thursday night.

So: if you’re in Apalachee Bay, the Big Bend, and Tallahassee, your realistic worst case scenario is a hurricane that’s much, much worse than what Michael was like for you. If you don’t think that your house will withstand 100-plus mph winds (I’m looking at those of you with prefab homes, modular homes and trailers), head west!! Pensacola and Destin should be far enough. Also, if you live in a home with tall trees all around, you might want to strongly consider evacuating.

Finally, if you are evacuating, turn off your water and if you have it, turn off your natural gas line that goes into your home.

Okay, time to get a little sleep (I haven’t gone to bed yet). I will have a new update sent out to you by early afternoon or so with the latest on Helene.

Hurricane Helene: As expected, Helene is now a strengthening hurricane with latest reports from reconnaissance aircraft indicating the hurricane has 85 mph maximum winds and a central barometric pressure of 978 millibars.

Even though not much has changed with my thoughts regarding Helene, it is now extremely evident that Helene is going to be an extremely serious and extremely major hurricane for the eastern Florida Panhandle and Big Bend area of Florida. It looks as if this hurricane will produce a worse impact than Idalia across most places between Apalachicola and Tampa.

It should be noted that the surge forecasts have increased and are now expected to be upwards of at least 15 to 20 feet across the entire Big Bend area of Florida, including Cedar Key, Horseshoe Beach, Steinhatchee, Perry, St. Marks and Sopchoppy. This surge would be far higher than what occurred during Idalia. The expected surge across other areas from Tampa to Apalachicola will be probably be as high as, if not higher than what occurred with Idalia. In fact, I would plan on worse surge damage than what you experienced during Idalia.

I want to be as blunt as I can be – Due to the expected landfall strength of near Category 4 intensity and the very large size of the hurricane, Helene will bring a catastrophic, life taking storm surge to the west coast of Florida and the Big Bend area of Florida, especially from Tampa to Apalachicola. A core of very destructive winds of at least 100 mph will impact a large area of north Florida into southern Georgia and does include Tallahassee. This hurricane is no joke at all and needs to be taken extremely seriously. If you are in an evacuation zone, my recommendation is to get out of town, if you can.

As For The Forecast Track – While the expected track isn’t completely locked in, it seems quite likely that we should see Helene come ashore right into the Big Bend area of Florida just east of Apalachicola in the area around Crawfordville, St. Marks and Perry during Thursday evening as potentially a Category 4 hurricane with 130-135 mph winds.

That said, there are still some indications in the model guidance that seem to point towards a track a little further east closer to Steinhatchee and Cedar Key. This means that I strongly urge everyone from Apalachicola to Clearwater to be fully ready for a very significant hurricane hit, via surge, wind or both.

Forecast Impacts:
Storm Surge: Water is, by far, the biggest killer in hurricanes. There is no hurricane hazard more deadly or destructive than storm surge.

It cannot be emphasized enough that Helene will bring an extremely widespread and extremely destructive surge event unlike any other in the modern era across Apalachee Bay and west-central Florida. This includes a life taking storm surge in Tampa Bay, even though the track of the eye of the hurricane will pass about 100 miles offshore.

The eastern wind field of Helene will be both intense and hug and will push an enormous wall of water northward onto the shallow continental shelf of the northeastern Gulf. At least a 15 to 20 foot storm surge will spread inland as far as 10 miles across the Big Bend area of Florida and because of this a huge area of low-lying “dry land” adjacent to Apalachee Bay and the northern Nature Coast will become part of the Gulf of Mexico and be under 10 to 20 feet of rushing water. It should also be pointed out that the worst part of the storm surge will coincide with the 11 pm Thursday night high tide in Apalachee Bay leading to a even worse inundation.

This WILL BE a catastrophic and unsurvivable storm surge for Apalachee Bay. PLEASE, I BEG YOU, take all evacuation orders seriously!!

If you are located east of the landfall point, which includes the entire west coast of Florida, a major surge event is almost guaranteed. This includes Tampa Bay where a 5 to 8 foot storm surge is expected and would be the worst surge event since the 1921 Tampa hurricane. Also, a 3 to 5 foot storm surge is expected across all of southwest Florida.

It needs to be pointed out that the storm surge will likely begin to arrive along the eastern Florida Panhandle, Apalachee Bay, the Big Bend area of Florida and the west coast of Florida as early as late tonight and Thursday morning well ahead of the strong winds.

If you are evacuating to escape a surge threat, you don’t necessarily need to drive to Mississippi or Louisiana. Instead, you just need to drive several miles inland to somewhere 30 feet above sea level rather than 6 or 12 feet above sea level.

I WILL BE BLUNT AGAIN – If you get an evacuation order, YOU NEED TO LEAVE NOW!!! Go several miles inland to higher ground. The expected surge impacts from Helene are without living precedent and highly likely to happen. RUN INLAND FROM THE WATER!! YOUR LIFE DEPENDS ON IT!!

Wind: The wind impact from Helene will be widespread and very destructive in some areas.

It is likely that tropical storm force winds of 40-65 mph, which will easily knock out power and damage trees, will occur across all of Florida starting tonight in the Keys and spread northward into South Florida Thursday morning and then push northward into North Florida by Thursday afternoon.

The really severe hurricane force winds with Helene are expected to spread unusually far inland due to how strong the hurricane will be and how fast it’ll be moving. Wind gusts of 80-100 mph can be expected across the Central & Eastern Florida Panhandle, including Tallahassee, the Big Bend area of Florida, the Nature Coast of Florida and across southern Georgia.

The absolutely worst and catastrophic winds that exceed 115-125 mph can be expected along the coast from Steinhatchee to Apalachicola and then spread inland through Tallahassee towards Thomasville during Thursday night.

If you’re in Apalachee Bay, the Big Bend, and Tallahassee, your realistic worst case scenario is a hurricane that’s much, much worse than what Michael was like for you. If you don’t think that your house will withstand 100-plus mph winds (I’m looking at those of you with prefab homes, modular homes and trailers), head west!! Pensacola and Destin should be far enough. Also, if you live in a home with tall trees all around, you might want to strongly consider evacuating.

Finally, if you are evacuating, turn off your water and if you have it, turn off your natural gas line that goes into your home.

Rainfall:

Evacuation Order Map:

FINALLY – I’m running out of adjectives to describe how severe this hurricane will be for many of you. This is the real deal everyone. REACT, PREPARE, EVACUATE. Take care of yourself, take care of your family and take care of your neighbors.

I am going to continue to do my best to keep you updated throughout the storm and I will continue to send out frequent updates on Helene. These updates will continue to give you the latest information on the impacts of surge, wind and heavy rainfall.

Model Track Forecast:

Satellite Imagery:

Helene is a large storm and is steadily strengthening this morning.

Reports from reconnaissance aircraft have just found a barometric pressure of 981mb inside of the storm. It is just below hurricane intensity with winds of 65 mph.

Helene will likely become a hurricane very soon and I still think a major Category 3 to Category 4 hurricane at landfall into the eastern Panhandle tomorrow evening.

With the onset of widespread dangerous condition early tomorrow, you have today to prepare for what will be an unprecedentedly large and powerful hurricane strike on North Florida with severe impacts occurring all along the Florida Gulf Coast.

Life-threatening storm surge of 10-15’+ in Apalachee Bay will submerge much of the Big Bend and eastern Panhandle’s low-lying coastal counties, where mandatory evacuations are in effect. This would by far be the worst surge in recorded history in Apalachee Bay, exceeding Michael’s surge and that of the much smaller Idalia in Apalachee Bay and the Nature Coast.

Significant surge farther south across the Florida Gulf Coast, including 5-8’ for Tampa Bay, is also a major threat to life and property.

IF YOU HAVE AN EVACUATION ORDER, GO TODAY. Weather conditions will go downhill tomorrow.

I will have additional frequent updates throughout today, tonight and tomorrow.

Satellite imagery, radar data and reports from reconnaissance aircraft indicate that Helene is strengthening and seems to be getting “that look” on satellite imagery. In fact, latest reports from reconnaissance aircraft indicate that the central barometric pressure is falling fairly quickly and the winds are now up to 60 mph. This all makes me believe that Helene will probably be a hurricane by late tonight or by tomorrow morning.

Overall, there are no other changes to what I wrote a little earlier. I still think that Helene will be a VERY significant hurricane impact for many along the Florida Gulf Coast with very strong wind impacts well inland into north Florida, the eastern Florida Panhandle and much of Georgia. See below for my thoughts on that.

More updates on the latest with Helene will be sent out as needed. Tomorrow and Thursday will likely be very busy days in terms of getting updates sent over to you, so stay tuned.

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Tropical Storm Helene: Reconnaissance aircraft, satellite imagery and other data indicates that our system over the northwestern Caribbean is now a tropical storm with 45 mph winds.

Additional analysis reveals that it appears that the wind shear over Helene seems to be decreasing as the appearance of the storm seems to be taking on a more feathery appearance. This feathery appearance means that the outflow around the storm seems to be improving and the overall environment seems to be getting more favorable for strengthening. In fact, the latest SHIPS intensity guidance seems to be pointing towards wind shear values of 4 to 8 knots to be present over Helene beginning tonight and continuing right up to landfall. If this occurs, it would be a very favorable environment for significant strengthening. In addition, the ocean water temperatures over the southern and eastern Gulf of Mexico are extremely warm and will act like rocket fuel to help to strengthen Helene.

All of this makes me continue to think that Helene will be a major Category 3 hurricane with 120-125 mph winds when it makes landfall on Thursday evening right in the area around Apalachee Bay with a track that could take the eyewall right over Tallahassee. If this happens, then 100-120 mph wind gusts could occur across the entire eastern part of the Florida Panhandle into extreme southern Georgia. This would include St. Marks, Crawfordville, Apalachicola and Tallahassee. It would also include Albany, Dothan and Valdosta, Georgia.

It needs to be emphasized that Helene is going to be a very large hurricane in overall size and because of this the storm surge, strong wind and heavy rain impacts will affect a very large area on the eastern side of the storm. A notable storm surge is likely along the entire west coast of Florida, tropical storm force winds are expected across much of the Florida Peninsula, as well as far inland as southern and central Georgia and parts of South Carolina. Heavy rain with flash flooding will be likely across all of the Southeastern United States.

One reason why we’re seeing some wind shear and a lack of much organization over the past 24 hours might be due to the very unexpected strengthening of Hurricane John in the Eastern Pacific, which made landfall near Acapulco last night as a Category 3. Hurricane John’s outflow is contributing to the slightly stronger southwesterly shear over Helene. The wildcard that is Hurricane John might lead to more eastward displacements of the convection and possibly even eastward displacements of the center. Because of this, we really need to watch for the continued possibility of a more easterly track than what’s shown right now.

The overall forecast track of Helene hasn’t changed a whole lot since yesterday. It looks likely that Helene will enter the southern Gulf of Mexico by early Wednesday afternoon as a borderline tropical storm-hurricane, pass around 100 miles west of Tampa around midday on Thursday as a low end Category 2 hurricane and reach the area around the eastern Florida Panhandle and the Big Bend area of Florida by Thursday evening as a 120-125 mph Category 3 hurricane.

This seems like a pretty easy and locked-in forecast, right? Not so fast on that.

The angle at which Helene approaches Florida is going to be very important as any minute shifts in the track will lead to large differences to where Helene crosses the coast on Thursday evening.

At this point, it seems pretty likely that Helene will be steered towards north and then north-notheast in-between an upper level low pressure system located over the central Mississippi Valley and a high pressure ridge located over the western North Atlantic. Based on the synoptic weather pattern alone, it seems pretty likely that Helene will make landfall as a major hurricane on Thursday evening somewhere in the eastern Florida Panhandle, the Big Bend area of Florida or the northern Nature Coast of Florida.

That said, because of Florida’s unique geography, the exact landfall point is actually hard to do when a storm approaches from the south or southwest. A shift of just 10 or 15 miles out over the Gulf of Mexico can lead to a shift of 20 to 40 miles with respect to landfall location in Florida. This can be a huge deal when determining storm surge impacts and wind impacts. This means that every small shift in the track of the storm will need to be watched and considered very carefully.

So, if the model guidance are completely correct, we’re likely to see Helene move right into Apalachee Bay or the Big Bend. However, if the models are not resolving the upper level low pressure system over the middle Mississippi Valley correctly, it would change things in terms of track. There’s definitely a scenario there for Helene to track very, very close to Tampa as some of the guidance continues to show a track that takes Helene inland near Cedar Key rather than Apalachee Bay.

For now, my range of likelihood landfall areas is from about Apalachicola to about Cedar Key.

As I already mentioned, any slight shifts in the track of Helene will make a huge difference in both wind and surge impacts for individual locations.

Obviously, slight shifts in track within that range will make a huge difference in wind and surge outcomes for individual locations.

For example, it’s not possible at the present moment to say with complete certainty whether Tallahassee will have the core of the hurricane go right over producing 100-125 mph wind gusts or not. It’s also not yet possible to say with any complete certainty as to whether Tampa will see a 5 to 10 foot storm surge or whether a 10 to 15-plus foot storm surge could occur if Helene’s track shifts to the east a little.

BOTTOM LINE IS THAT a major hurricane is likely to strike the Gulf Coast of Florida by Thursday evening somewhere between Apalachicola and Cedar Key. This means that the rest of today and tomorrow are your days to prepare in the Panhandle, north-central Florida, and west-central Florida, so make it count!!

Forecast Impacts:
Storm Surge: The storm surge is going to affect a lot of people and it’s going to be quite significant in some areas.

Storm surge heights of 10 to 15 feet looks likely in the Big Bend area of Florida (includes Alligator Point, St. Marks, Cedar Key, Steinhatchee, Crystal River and Homosassa) and this would be as bad as, if not worse than what occurred during Idalia last year. A storm surge of 5 to 8 feet in Tampa Bay would also be about as bad as or worse than Idalia. So, for planning purposes, I would strongly advise you to use Idalia as a blueprint to prepare by and in fact, I’d advise you to prepare for a storm that’s a little worse than Idalia.

The wind field and the size of the storm is expected to be much larger than Idalia and because of this, the surge impacts could be worse.

Wind: It is expected that the quick forward speed of Helene when it makes landfall will lead to tropical storm and hurricane force winds occurring well inland. As you can see in the map below, the area of tropical storm and hurricane force winds is huge. Both coasts of the Florida Peninsula are likely to see tropical storm force winds with 60-plus mph wind gusts occurring as far east as St. Augustine, Jacksonville, Brunswick and maybe even Savannah.

How far inland the hurricane force winds extend will depend on how strong Helene is when it makes landfall and how fast it’s moving. That said, Helene has the very real potential to be a destructive inland wind event for north Florida, much of Georgia and parts of South Carolina.

This means that widespread, significant power outages and wind damage could occur in the metro areas of Tallahassee, Atlanta, Macon, Savannah, Columbia, Charleston, Greenville-Spartanburg, and Charlotte should be prepared for very strong winds and this means to prepare with at least a few days of food and water should there be extended widespread power outages. is come to fruition.

Rainfall:

Evacuation Order Map:

Again, this is going to be a very large hurricane and its impacts are going to affect quite a bit of the southeastern United States.

I will continue to send out frequent updates on Helene, especially during tomorrow and Thursday. These updates and discussions will give you information on the latest impacts of surge, wind and heavy rainfall. That said, you need to go into HURRICANE MODE NOW. Take the rest of today and tomorrow to prepare across the Florida Panhandle, north Florida, central Florida and along the west coast of Florida.

Model Track Forecast:

Satellite Imagery:

Tropical Storm Helene: Reconnaissance aircraft, satellite imagery and other data indicates that our system over the northwestern Caribbean is now a tropical storm with 45 mph winds.

Additional analysis reveals that it appears that the wind shear over Helene seems to be decreasing as the appearance of the storm seems to be taking on a more feathery appearance. This feathery appearance means that the outflow around the storm seems to be improving and the overall environment seems to be getting more favorable for strengthening. In fact, the latest SHIPS intensity guidance seems to be pointing towards wind shear values of 4 to 8 knots to be present over Helene beginning tonight and continuing right up to landfall. If this occurs, it would be a very favorable environment for significant strengthening. In addition, the ocean water temperatures over the southern and eastern Gulf of Mexico are extremely warm and will act like rocket fuel to help to strengthen Helene.

All of this makes me continue to think that Helene will be a major Category 3 hurricane with 120-125 mph winds when it makes landfall on Thursday evening right in the area around Apalachee Bay with a track that could take the eyewall right over Tallahassee. If this happens, then 100-120 mph wind gusts could occur across the entire eastern part of the Florida Panhandle into extreme southern Georgia. This would include St. Marks, Crawfordville, Apalachicola and Tallahassee. It would also include Albany, Dothan and Valdosta, Georgia.

It needs to be emphasized that Helene is going to be a very large hurricane in overall size and because of this the storm surge, strong wind and heavy rain impacts will affect a very large area on the eastern side of the storm. A notable storm surge is likely along the entire west coast of Florida, tropical storm force winds are expected across much of the Florida Peninsula, as well as far inland as southern and central Georgia and parts of South Carolina. Heavy rain with flash flooding will be likely across all of the Southeastern United States.

One reason why we’re seeing some wind shear and a lack of much organization over the past 24 hours might be due to the very unexpected strengthening of Hurricane John in the Eastern Pacific, which made landfall near Acapulco last night as a Category 3. Hurricane John’s outflow is contributing to the slightly stronger southwesterly shear over Helene. The wildcard that is Hurricane John might lead to more eastward displacements of the convection and possibly even eastward displacements of the center. Because of this, we really need to watch for the continued possibility of a more easterly track than what’s shown right now.

The overall forecast track of Helene hasn’t changed a whole lot since yesterday. It looks likely that Helene will enter the southern Gulf of Mexico by early Wednesday afternoon as a borderline tropical storm-hurricane, pass around 100 miles west of Tampa around midday on Thursday as a low end Category 2 hurricane and reach the area around the eastern Florida Panhandle and the Big Bend area of Florida by Thursday evening as a 120-125 mph Category 3 hurricane.

This seems like a pretty easy and locked-in forecast, right? Not so fast on that.

The angle at which Helene approaches Florida is going to be very important as any minute shifts in the track will lead to large differences to where Helene crosses the coast on Thursday evening.

At this point, it seems pretty likely that Helene will be steered towards north and then north-notheast in-between an upper level low pressure system located over the central Mississippi Valley and a high pressure ridge located over the western North Atlantic. Based on the synoptic weather pattern alone, it seems pretty likely that Helene will make landfall as a major hurricane on Thursday evening somewhere in the eastern Florida Panhandle, the Big Bend area of Florida or the northern Nature Coast of Florida.

That said, because of Florida’s unique geography, the exact landfall point is actually hard to do when a storm approaches from the south or southwest. A shift of just 10 or 15 miles out over the Gulf of Mexico can lead to a shift of 20 to 40 miles with respect to landfall location in Florida. This can be a huge deal when determining storm surge impacts and wind impacts. This means that every small shift in the track of the storm will need to be watched and considered very carefully.

So, if the model guidance are completely correct, we’re likely to see Helene move right into Apalachee Bay or the Big Bend. However, if the models are not resolving the upper level low pressure system over the middle Mississippi Valley correctly, it would change things in terms of track. There’s definitely a scenario there for Helene to track very, very close to Tampa as some of the guidance continues to show a track that takes Helene inland near Cedar Key rather than Apalachee Bay.

For now, my range of likelihood landfall areas is from about Apalachicola to about Cedar Key.

As I already mentioned, any slight shifts in the track of Helene will make a huge difference in both wind and surge impacts for individual locations.

Obviously, slight shifts in track within that range will make a huge difference in wind and surge outcomes for individual locations.

For example, it’s not possible at the present moment to say with complete certainty whether Tallahassee will have the core of the hurricane go right over producing 100-125 mph wind gusts or not. It’s also not yet possible to say with any complete certainty as to whether Tampa will see a 5 to 10 foot storm surge or whether a 10 to 15-plus foot storm surge could occur if Helene’s track shifts to the east a little.

BOTTOM LINE IS THAT a major hurricane is likely to strike the Gulf Coast of Florida by Thursday evening somewhere between Apalachicola and Cedar Key. This means that the rest of today and tomorrow are your days to prepare in the Panhandle, north-central Florida, and west-central Florida, so make it count!!

Forecast Impacts:
Storm Surge: The storm surge is going to affect a lot of people and it’s going to be quite significant in some areas.

Storm surge heights of 10 to 15 feet looks likely in the Big Bend area of Florida (includes Alligator Point, St. Marks, Cedar Key, Steinhatchee, Crystal River and Homosassa) and this would be as bad as, if not worse than what occurred during Idalia last year. A storm surge of 5 to 8 feet in Tampa Bay would also be about as bad as or worse than Idalia. So, for planning purposes, I would strongly advise you to use Idalia as a blueprint to prepare by and in fact, I’d advise you to prepare for a storm that’s a little worse than Idalia.

The wind field and the size of the storm is expected to be much larger than Idalia and because of this, the surge impacts could be worse.

Wind: It is expected that the quick forward speed of Helene when it makes landfall will lead to tropical storm and hurricane force winds occurring well inland. As you can see in the map below, the area of tropical storm and hurricane force winds is huge. Both coasts of the Florida Peninsula are likely to see tropical storm force winds with 60-plus mph wind gusts occurring as far east as St. Augustine, Jacksonville, Brunswick and maybe even Savannah.

How far inland the hurricane force winds extend will depend on how strong Helene is when it makes landfall and how fast it’s moving. That said, Helene has the very real potential to be a destructive inland wind event for north Florida, much of Georgia and parts of South Carolina.

This means that widespread, significant power outages and wind damage could occur in the metro areas of Tallahassee, Atlanta, Macon, Savannah, Columbia, Charleston, Greenville-Spartanburg, and Charlotte should be prepared for very strong winds and this means to prepare with at least a few days of food and water should there be extended widespread power outages. is come to fruition.

Rainfall:

Evacuation Order Map:

Again, this is going to be a very large hurricane and its impacts are going to affect quite a bit of the southeastern United States.

I will continue to send out frequent updates on Helene, especially during tomorrow and Thursday. These updates and discussions will give you information on the latest impacts of surge, wind and heavy rainfall. That said, you need to go into HURRICANE MODE NOW. Take the rest of today and tomorrow to prepare across the Florida Panhandle, north Florida, central Florida and along the west coast of Florida.

Model Track Forecast:

Satellite Imagery: