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Hurricane Milton: Milton is on its way out into the open Atlantic after exiting Florida’s East Coast this morning. The hurricane has left a trail of surge damage, wind damage, over 3 million power outages and flooding rainfall in its wake. It is expected that Milton will become a non-tropical storm system and race well south of Bermuda by late tomorrow.

Milton’s track just south of Tampa Bay spared the populated Tampa/St. Pete coastline catastrophic storm surge and instead pushed the water out of the Bay. That said, the southerly track did put the Tampa Bay area on the hurricane’s windy and rainy side.

Milton produced wind gusts of 100 to 110 mph from Tampa Bay southward to Sarasota and Venice, including wind gusts to 107 mph in Venice Beach, 105 mph at Egmont Channel west of Tampa Bay, 102 mph in Sarasota and 97 mph in Tampa. These very strong winds caused extensive damage across Tampa-St. Petersburg including downing construction cranes and shredding the roof off Tropicana Field in St. Petersburg.

Additionally, Milton produced some extremely heavy rainfall amounts across the Tampa area with St. Petersburg recording 18.43 inches of rainfall with 5 inches of that falling in just one hour.

The area from Orlando to the east-central Florida coast also received some very heavy rainfall throughout the overnight hours with 8 to 12 inches of rain occurring in Orange and Seminole Counties and 12-16 inches of rainfall falling in parts of Volusia County. Highest wind gusts in east Central Florida include 86 mph in Orlando and 87 mph in Daytona Beach, and mostly in the 70s otherwise.

The worst of Milton’s devastating storm surge occurred along the barrier islands stretching from Longboat Key and Siesta Key west of Sarasota-Bradenton southward to Manasota Key and Boca Grande south of Venice.

A destructive storm surge flooding also pushed into Charlotte Harbor and up the Peace River, sending major flooding into parts of Punta Gorda.

Already, the pictures and videos I’ve seen from Manasota Key and Englewood Beach reveals that both the wind and surge damage is extremely extensive and catastrophic in some areas.

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Western Caribbean Tropical Development Is A Possibility Late Next Week: Unfortunately, we are far from being done with hurricane season as it appears we may see another round of tropical development occur in the western Caribbean towards the later parts of next week.

It appears that the weather pattern is going to be highly favorable for development during the second half of next week with a big high pressure ridge building over the Eastern United States. The reason why this is favorable is due to the fact that you oftentimes see low pressure forming to the south and southwest of these high pressure ridges and the placement of this low pressure system would end up being over the western Caribbean.

Some of the model guidance are beginning to show this potential with the GFS model forecasting a Yucatan Peninsula threat next weekend followed by a track into the Gulf of Mexico. The ICON model is now showing the possibility of western Caribbean by late next week as well. The other model guidance haven’t jumped onboard yet with the forecast of tropical development, but given the potential favorable weather pattern in the western Caribbean I suspect they will eventually.

Bottom Line Is That I do think that we’ll probably see a tropical system form in the northwestern Caribbean late next week that becomes a tropical storm and perhaps even a hurricane. Where it ends up going remains to be seen, but it is something that I’ll be keeping a very close eye on. That said, this is something I don’t want you to be overly worried or stressed out about – it’s just something to keep an eye on.

The next tropical weather discussion will be issued on Friday Afternoon.

Hurricane Milton: Milton made landfall in the Siesta Key & Sarasota areas at about 8:30 pm EDT this evening as a 120 mph Category 3 hurricane. A 10 foot storm surge came ashore in Sarasota while the water was pushed out of Tampa Bay due to offshore winds. How close was Milton from causing a catastrophic 10-15 foot storm surge in Tampa Bay? Just 20 miles, that’s how close it came for Tampa.

Further down the coast, a 5 to 10 foot storm surge is currently occurring in Venice and Fort Myers and this surge will be slow to recede due to the high tide now pushing in. There will likely be very extensive damage in Sarasota, Venice and Longboat Key when all is said and done.

Extremely heavy rain continue to occur in the Tampa Metro area and has now spread into areas from Lakeland to Orlando. Storm rain totals of 17 inches have been recorded in St. Petersburg and over 10 inches of rain has occurred all around Tampa.

Additional heavy to extremely heavy rain is expected to occur throughout the rest of tonight along and north of I-4. Flash Flood Emergencies are now in effect for Tampa where catastrophic flooding has occurred and will continue to occur. I expect to see additional Flash Flood Emergencies be issued for other areas along I-4, including Orlando and Deltona as severe flash flooding is likely.

Finally, tropical storm force to hurricane force winds will continue to occur along I-4 for the next several hours and will begin to abate very late tonight.

More updates will be sent out as needed.

Milton is now approaching the West Coast of Florida late this afternoon and it is looking increasingly more likely that eye of the hurricane is going to move extremely close to, if not right into Tampa Bay. We are about 3-4 hours away from landfall, which could occur as soon as 8-9 pm this evening. This means that weather conditions are likely to rapidly deteriorate from here on out across much of the Florida Peninsula.

At this point, I expect landfall to occur in the area between Sarasota and Tampa Bay about 8-10 pm this evening as a 105-115 mph hurricane.

The worst of the surge and wind is expected to impact the area from Tampa Bay to Venice with a significant surge expected to the south including Fort Myers and Naples.

The storm surge is now coming into Fort Myers due to the winds now turning onshore and driving that surge into the coast. I expect the same thing to occur in the next few hours further up the coast, including Venice, Sarasota, Bradenton and Tampa, so that by 9-10 pm this evening there will be extremely damaging storm surge occurring everywhere along the west-central and southwest Florida coast.

One thing that I want to strongly advise against – If the water exits Tampa Bay with the offshore wind, DO NOT go into or near the Bay to watch it. This is going to much different than Irma and Ian in that it’s looking likely that a wall of water up to 10-15 feet high will come rushing into the Bay once the eye of the hurricane lifts north of Tampa and that onshore wind kicks in. You will be trapped if you do this.

Hurricane force winds connected to the eye wall of the hurricane are about to push onshore near Sarasota and Bradenton within the next couple of hours and these hurricane force winds will then spread into the Tampa area soon after. Things are about to get very nasty very soon. Now is the time where you need to shelter in place and stay wherever you are right now along the West-Central and Southwest Florida coast.

Milton seems to have caused one of Florida’s most significant tornado outbreaks today. The tornado threat is now occurring along the east coast of Florida from Palm Bay to West Palm Beach and this should end over the next few hours. Additional tornadoes are possible within the eye wall of the hurricane as it moves inland tonight.

Areas near and north of I-4 are likely to see additional heavy rainfall with up to one foot of total rainfall expected tonight. Flash flooding and river flooding is extremely likely.

Hurricane Milton: It appears that increasing wind shear associated with a trough of low pressure located to the north of Milton is beginning to affect the hurricane. This has led to a more lopsided look on satellite imagery as dry air is trying to push in from the west. That said, reconnaissance aircraft are still finding Milton to be a powerful Category 4 hurricane as of early this afternoon.

Milton is now tracking to the northeast after its move to the nearly due east last night. The question now becomes where exactly will Milton make landfall on Florida’s West Coast.

The latest model guidance are pretty consistent in forecasting a landfall very near or to the south of Tampa Bay late tonight. More specifically, the hurricane track model consensus forecasts a landfall near Sarasota; the latest GFS and Canadian models forecasts a landfall near Bradenton close to midnight tonight; the most recent ICON model forecast shows a track right up Tampa Bay right into downtown Tampa just before midnight tonight; The last European model run is showing a landfall right into Tampa Bay.

So, will Milton bring a catastrophic storm surge to Tampa Bay? It’s possible. Is it also possible that Tampa Bay misses a disaster from Milton? It’s also possible. I cannot stress how extremely close the eye of Milton will get to Tampa and it’s really going to be a game of inches. One or two little wobbles in the track will mean the difference between a track south of Tampa and a track right into Tampa Bay – it’s that close!!

In terms of storm surge, a landfall south of Tampa would spare the Tampa Bay area the worst coastal flooding, but would direct a catastrophic storm surge towards Sarasota, Venice, North Port and Charlotte Harbor.

On the other hand, a track into Tampa and St. Pete would push a catastrophic storm surge into Tampa Bay.

My Thinking As Of Early This Afternoon Is for Milton to make landfall very near Bradenton and Sarasota near or just a little after midnight as a 125-130 mph borderline Category 3-4 hurricane. That said, I am not at all ruling out a Tampa Bay direct hit and in fact, the latest movement of the hurricane has been on a north-northeast track and we need to see that turn back to the northeast and east-northeast to avoid a Tampa Bay direct landfall.

This means that areas including Tampa, St. Pete, Bradenton, Sarasota, Anna Maria Island, Longboat Key, Siesta Key, Venice and Englewood are all squarely in the “line of fire” and have a high likelihood of seeing a direct hit from Milton.

Forecast Impacts:
Storm Surge: As I just mentioned, it’s still too much of a close call for Tampa Bay to say whether it’ll be hit by a 10-15 foot storm surge or be missed due to a track to the south of the Bay. We are talking literally a few wobbles in the track that makes the difference between little or no surge or a catastrophic surge for Tampa Bay. These little wobbles will not be able to be predicted until later this afternoon or this evening when we’re just a few hours from landfall.

For those areas south of Tampa Bay from Sarasota through Fort Myers and Naples, it’s almost guaranteed that a devastating and catastrophic storm surge of 10 to 15 feet will occur. This also includes Venice, Longboat Key, Englewood and even Charlotte Harbor.

Now turning to coastal parts of east-central and northeast Florida and southeast Georgia, it appears that areas from about Titusville and points north to Savannah will see a 3 to 6 foot storm surge throughout the day Thursday. This area also includes Brunswick, Jacksonville, St. Augustine, Daytona Beach and the St. Johns River.

Wind: The area that’s going to have the greatest threat for extremely damaging hurricane force winds with gusts of well over 110-120 mph will be an area that includes Brooksville, Palm Harbor, Clearwater, Lakeland, Tampa, St. Pete, Longboat Key, Sarasota, Englewood and Venice throughout tonight. The strongest winds, by far, will occur on the northern side of the storm as its making landfall.

As for Central, East-Central and Northeast Florida, hurricane force wind gusts on the order of 75-95 mph can be expected during the height of the storm late tonight through Thursday morning. This includes Orlando, all of the Space Coast, Daytona Beach and St. Augustine.

As for North-Central Florida, peak wind gusts of 40-60 mph can be expected early Thursday morning.

Tornadoes: Bands of heavy rain and thunderstorms continues to rotate into the Florida Peninsula out ahead of Milton and numerous supercells have been embedded within these bands of storms. Some of these supercells have had a history of producing tornadoes across inland areas of South Florida, as well as across Southwest Florida

The tornado threat throughout this afternoon and tonight is expected to continue to be quite significant across parts of Central and South Florida and includes Sarasota, Fort Myers, Naples, Vero Beach, Titusville and Orlando. The environmental conditions across this part of the Florida Peninsula is highly favorable for tornadoes. In fact, the tornado threat still looks unusually high for a tropical cyclone event. Be aware of the tornado threat and be ready to take immediate shelter if Tornado Warnings are issued across Central and South Florida as some of the tornadoes could be on the strong side in intensity.

Heavy Rain: There continues to be a very substantial threat for inland flooding from heavy rainfall along and north of the I-4 corridor where 10 to 15 inches of rainfall can be expected. This will lead to flash flooding of low-lying areas as well as river flooding problems.

I will continue to cover Milton extensively until the threat and impacts of the hurricane are done. This means that you should look for many more frequent updates from me.

Milton is still an extremely dangerous Category 4 hurricane with 155 mph winds and will bring a catastrophic storm surge tonight to the West-Central and especially the Southwest Florida Coast. All preparations, including evacuations, need to be done by midday today. Weather conditions are likely to begin deteriorating pretty quickly across the Florida Peninsula this afternoon.

Satellite imagery as of 8:30 am this morning indicated that the hurricane may be trying to undergo another eye wall replacement cycle. Also, it seems that dry air pushing eastward from the western and the central Gulf of Mexico seems to be impinging on the western side of the hurricane. We’ll have to see in the coming hours what sort of effect the dry air and eye wall replacement cycle has on Milton.

Something else that I continue to watch is the continuing track that Milton is taking, which is slightly to the south of most models. If this continues, then it’s possible that Milton could make landfall in the area between Sarasota and Fort Myers instead of around Bradenton. A landfall between Sarasota and Fort Myers would substantially increase the destructive wind impact and the catastrophic surge impact across Southwest Florida, including Naples and Fort Myers.

For Now, I Think That Milton will make landfall after midnight tonight very near Sarasota and Bradenton, but again we’re going to have to watch to see if this landfall occurs closer to Fort Myers or not. As for strength, I think that we’re looking at Milton making landfall as a 125-130 mph borderline Category 3-4 hurricane.

Also, the tornado threat the rest of today is quite significant across parts of Central and South Florida and includes Sarasota, Fort Myers, Naples, Vero Beach, Titusville and Orlando. The outer rain bands associated with Milton will be pushing onshore, especially during this afternoon. Radar imagery of these bands of thunderstorms show they are exhibiting supercell tendencies and given the extreme wind shear that’s going to be present, the tornado threat looks unusually high for a tropical cyclone event. Be aware of the tornado threat and be ready to take immediate shelter if Tornado Warnings are issued across Central and South Florida as some of the tornadoes could be on the strong side in intensity.

I hope to have a new update out to you sometime early this afternoon.

Latest update on Milton includes a slight bump southward in the forecast track of the hurricane. This is due to the fact that Milton is tracking just east of the model consensus and as I mentioned earlier, we are going to have to watch for any more trends to the south in the forecast track of Milton. The reason why is because if Milton makes landfall a little further down the West Coast of Florida it would substantially increase the wind and surge threat to Southwest Florida, including Fort Myers and Naples. It’s something that I’m watching extremely closely.

That Said, I Still Think That Milton will make landfall in the area between Clearwater and Sarasota with the center point right near Bradenton as a solid Category 3 hurricane with 120-125 mph winds during the after midnight hours of Wednesday night.

I then think that the eye of Milton will probably track right over the Orlando area during Thursday morning leading to the likelihood of up to 100 mph wind gusts for Orlando, Kissimmee and Disney.

I cannot emphasize enough that any slight shifts in the track of Milton will make a world of difference in both wind and surge impacts for your location.

Areas that are north of where the center makes landfall are at risk of hurricane force winds with gusts that exceed 100-120 mph and flooding rainfall. The surge threat, however, will be limited.

It’s the areas along and south of where Milton comes in, especially the areas from near Tampa to Fort Myers that will see onshore winds and a storm surge (10 to 15 feet of surge) that’s worse than anything seen in over 100 years.

I also wanted to mention that the weather will be quite stormy during the day Wednesday across the Florida Peninsula ahead of Hurricane Milton. This stormy weather will include the outer rainbands with locally heavy rainfall and will certainly impact and hamper final preparations for the hurricane.

I’ll have a new update during Wednesday Morning.

Hurricane Milton: As expected, it appears that Milton is undergoing another round of robust strengthening with a well-defined eye now visible. Additionally, gravity waves and mesovorticies are being observed around the outer perimeter of the eye on satellite imagery and this is a pretty good indication that the hurricane is strengthening. Latest reports from reconnaissance aircraft show that Milton is once again a Category 5 hurricane with 160 mph winds and it’s still strengthening.

Forecast Track: It is expected that Milton will turn more to the northeast by tonight and then begin speeding up in forward speed during the day on Wednesday. This northeastward track is due to the hurricane being steered by an upper level trough now located over the eastern United States.

Where Milton makes landfall on Florida’s West Coast is going to depend on how sharp the turn is to the northeast. A large majority of the model guidance seems to be now honing in on the hurricane making landfall somewhere in the area between Clearwater and Sarasota just after midnight tomorrow night. I have seen the latest track guidance which has most members forecasting a landfall very near Sarasota. This shift to the south in the track guidance is due to the eastward motion Milton is taking right now. The eastward track that Milton is now taking is something that’s going to have to be watched extremely closely. The reason why because the longer the turn to the northeast is delayed, the higher the threat is for Southwest Florida and in particular Fort Myers and Naples. So, we’re going to be watching this extremely closely and will definitely have updates as needed.

Either way though, Milton’s landfall on Florida’s West Coast on an east-northeast track is a worst-case scenario for west-central and southwest Florida. Even if Milton weakens to a Category 3 hurricane before landfall, the absolute catastrophic storm surge flood impacts are now guaranteed across west-central and southwest Florida. Also, if Milton does make landfall as a major Category 3 hurricane, it would be the first direct landfall in the area between Pasco and Sarasota Counties since 1921.

Another change in the forecast of Milton is that the landfall of the hurricane looks to be a little later than previously thought. It now looks like Milton will make landfall during the after midnight hours of Wednesday night with the worst impacts expected during the nighttime hours of Wednesday night into Thursday morning.

Forecast Strength: As I already mentioned, Milton is once again a Category 5 hurricane and I suspect that it’ll remain a Category 5 hurricane right through tonight into part of Wednesday morning.

As we get into Wednesday afternoon and Wednesday evening, it is still anticipated that increasing wind shear due to the upper level trough of low pressure interacting with the hurricane should weaken it some. This means that we should see the hurricane get knocked down to a solid Category 3 by the time it makes landfall.

One thing that does still concern me is that the hurricane will be moving in the same direction as the upper level winds and because of this, it’s possible that the net wind shear over the storm will be very low. If this occurs, then we could see much less weakening than what some model guidance are showing and it’s not out of the realm of possibility that Milton makes landfall as a mid to upper end Category 4 hurricane. I’m not explicitly forecasting that, but it is something that does concern me.

Another item to note is that the overall wind field around Milton is expected to increase due to that interaction with the upper level trough. Because of this, the surge impact and the wind impact will be very widespread across west-central and southwest Florida. Also, even though Milton should make landfall as a solid Category 3 hurricane in terms of wind, it’ll bring with it a surge that’s comparable to a Category 5 hurricane.

My Thinking As Of Right Now Is That Milton will make landfall in the area between Clearwater and Sarasota as a solid Category 3 hurricane with 120-125 mph winds during the after midnight hours of Wednesday night.

I then think that the eye of Milton will probably track right over the Orlando area during Thursday morning leading to the likelihood of up to 100 mph wind gusts for Orlando, Kissimmee and Disney.

I cannot emphasize enough that any slight shifts in the track of Milton will make a world of difference in both wind and surge impacts for your location.

Areas that are north of where the center makes landfall are at risk of hurricane force winds with gusts that exceed 100-120 mph and flooding rainfall. The surge threat, however, will be limited.

It’s the areas along and south of where Milton comes in, especially the areas from near Tampa to Fort Myers that will see onshore winds and a storm surge (10 to 15 feet of surge) that’s worse than anything seen in over 100 years.

Now I Want To Be Completely Blunt With You – If you have been ordered to evacuate, you need to leave. It’s as simple as that. Help is not coming for you if you get into trouble in the eye wall of a major hurricane when you’re in 7 feet of water that’s rising all around you inside your home, or trying frantically to cut a hole in your roof as you’re stuck in your attic because the surge has reached you in your attic and you’re about to drown. These things have actually happened in past storms and they will happen again.

Follow all evacuation orders to save your life!!

Check on neighbors, family and friends to see if they are able to evacuate and if they’re not, find ways of making sure they evacuate, including taking them with you.

For those of you without any way to evacuate, please know that Florida Division of Emergency Management has partnered with Uber to provide rides to and from shelters in those counties evacuating for Milton. If you need a ride to a shelter, please follow these steps:
– Open the Uber app.
– Tap Account on the bottom right and tap Wallet.
– Add promo code MILTONRELIEF

Find a state-approved shelter at the following link – https://www.floridadisaster.org/Shelter-Status

Also, there will be free shuttles operating in Pinellas, Pasco and Hillsborough Counties assisting with evacuations to shelters. This shuttle is free and requires no reservation. Times and locations can be found at https://floridadisaster.org/Updates

Also, if you live within 50 miles of where the eye is crossing Florida and you live in a mobile home, you should also evacuate due to the likelihood of your mobile home being severely damaged by strong winds.

The storm surge will be unlike anything those of you along the west-central and southwest coast of Florida have ever seen. And….it will be at night.

Evacuation Map:

Forecast Impacts:
Storm Surge: For the Tampa Bay area, it is still way too much of a close call for you to risk to ride out the hurricane. Is there a chance that Milton will go south of Tampa? Absolutely! But you’re talking literally a few wobbles in the track that makes the difference between little or no surge or a catastrophic surge for Tampa Bay. These little wobbles cannot be predicted until a few hours beforehand and by that time it’ll be far too late to get out. So, get out NOW!! The margin for error are extremely thin and the outcomes of not acting are extremely dire.

For those areas south of Tampa Bay from Sarasota through Fort Myers and Naples, it’s almost guaranteed that a devastating and catastrophic storm surge of 10 to 15 feet will occur. This also includes Venice, Longboat Key, Englewood and even Charlotte Harbor. I cannot stress enough to try to evacuate if you are ordered to.

Now turning to coastal parts of east-central and northeast Florida and southeast Georgia, it appears that areas from about Titusville and points north to Savannah will see a 3 to 6 foot storm surge throughout the day Thursday. This area also includes Brunswick, Jacksonville, St. Augustine, Daytona Beach and the St. Johns River.

Wind: The area that’s going to have the greatest threat for extremely damaging hurricane force winds with gusts of well over 110-120 mph will be an area that includes Brooksville, Palm Harbor, Clearwater, Lakeland, Tampa, St. Pete, Longboat Key, Sarasota and Englewood during Wednesday night. The strongest winds, by far, will occur on the northern side of the storm as its making landfall.

As for Central, East-Central and Northeast Florida, hurricane force wind gusts on the order of 75-95 mph can be expected during the height of the storm on Thursday morning. This includes Orlando, all of the Space Coast, Daytona Beach, St. Augustine and even south parts of Jacksonville.

As for South Florida, low-end tropical storm force wind gusts of 40-50 mph are expected at times during the day on Wednesday.

As for North-Central Florida, peak wind gusts of 40-60 mph can be expected early Thursday morning.

Heavy Rain: There is a very substantial threat for inland flooding from heavy rainfall along the entire I-4 corridor from Milton. This includes Tampa, Lakeland, and Orlando where up to one foot of rain is expected.

In Closing: There’s very little optimism in the overall forecast with Milton, unfortunately. The hurricane is expected to produce a catastrophic storm surge across west-central and southwest Florida with widespread wind impacts and substantial river flooding and flash flooding potential across Florida’s West Coast, Central Florida, East-Central Florida and Northeast Florida.

If you still need to evacuate, you need to do so before the weather begins deteriorating tomorrow.

Model Track Forecast:

Satellite Imagery:

I will be continuing to cover Milton extensively until the threat and impacts of the hurricane are done. This means that you should look for many more frequent updates from me.

After reaching an astounding and unbelievable Category 5 strength of 180 mph winds and a central pressure of 897 millibars making it the 5th lowest central pressure in the Atlantic Basin hurricane history, it appears that Milton is undergoing a eye wall replacement cycle. Because of this, the hurricane has weakened to a still extremely powerful 165 mph Category 5 hurricane with a central barometric pressure of 914 millibars.

Some additional weakening is likely while Milton passes just north of the Yucatan Peninsula the rest of tonight into Tuesday. Once Milton moves past the Yucatan and begins its journey towards Florida’s West Coast, it seems likely that the hurricane will strengthen again during Tuesday night and peaking at an upper end Category 5 hurricane with central pressures near 900 millibars.

My Thinking As Of Right Now Is About The Same As Earlier and that is for Milton to make landfall along Florida’s West Coast in the area between Clearwater and Sarasota as a solid Category 3 hurricane with 120-125 mph winds during Wednesday evening.

I then still think that Milton will cross the Florida Peninsula very near the I-4 corridor leading hurricane conditions to occur across not only Central Florida but also across the Space Coast of Florida and possibly into parts of the First Coast of Florida.

This also means that the eye of Milton will probably track right over the Orlando area early Thursday morning leading to the likelihood of up to 100 mph wind gusts for Orlando, Kissimmee and Disney.

I cannot emphasize enough that any slight shifts in the track of Milton will make a world of difference in both wind and surge impacts for your location.

Areas that are north of where the center makes landfall are at risk of hurricane force winds with gusts that exceed 100-120 mph and flooding rainfall. The surge threat, however, will be limited.

It’s the areas along and south of where Milton comes in, especially the areas from near Tampa to Fort Myers that will see onshore winds and a storm surge (10 to 15 feet of surge) that’s worse than anything seen in over 100 years.

Now I Want To Be Completely Blunt With You – If you get an order to evacuate, you need to leave. It’s as simple as that. Help is not coming for you if you get into trouble in the eye wall of a major hurricane when you’re in 7 feet of water that’s rising all around you inside your home, or trying frantically to cut a hole in your roof as you’re stuck in your attic because the surge has reached you in your attic and you’re about to drown. These things happened during the Tampa 1921 hurricane and they have happened in other areas along the coast during other major surge events. These things have happened before and they will happen again.

Follow all evacuation orders to save your life!!

Also, if you live within 50 miles of where the eye is crossing Florida and you live in a mobile home, you should also evacuate due to the likelihood of your mobile home being severely damaged by strong winds.

Some More Facts To Hit You With: Milton is going to bring an extremely dangerous, life taking, catastrophic and historic storm surge in Tampa Bay with 10 to 15 feet of surge expected. The only hope for Tampa Bay would be a landfall to the SOUTH of Tampa, which would produce an offshore flow and nearly no surge.

The storm surge will be unlike anything those of you along the west-central and southwest coast of Florida have ever seen. And….it will be at night.

Hurricane Milton: Milton continues to undergo a stunning and terrifying bout of rapid strengthening. Latest reports from reconnaissance aircraft indicate that Milton now has 175 mph winds with a central pressure and it’s possible the hurricane is not yet done strengthening.

I cannot stress this enough – Milton poses the greatest surge threat to west-central Florida, including Tampa Bay, since 1921. The threat to the entire West Coast of Florida is truly exceptional and the area between Venice and Crystal River does not have the living memory of a direct impact from a major hurricane.

The rate of strengthening that Milton has undergone today is nearly unprecedented. The central barometric pressure in the eye of Milton has been falling at a rate of 8 to 10 millibars per hour.

PLEASE – If you live on the West Coast of Florida and are told to evacuate, please do so. Go!! Get out!! You do not want to mess with this hurricane. A significant storm surge and very strong winds are expected across a large swath of the West Coast of Florida and it’s a storm you do not want to stay around for.

This has the very real potential to be one of the most destructive hurricanes on record for west-central Florida.

Forecast Track: Right now, Milton is moving on a general easterly direction and will remain on this easterly track through tonight.

Once we get into Tuesday, it is expected that Milton will turn on a more northeasterly track as it enters a zone between a high pressure ridge over the western Caribbean and a trough of low pressure over the US East Coast. How sharply this northeast turn is will dictate where exactly Milton crosses the West Coast of Florida.

While it’s not yet possible to know exactly where landfall will occur. It does appear that the latest model guidance seem to be pointing towards a track that takes Milton onshore very near Tampa. The latest GFS model shows Milton making landfall just north of Tampa and the latest European model is showing a landfall right in Tampa Bay. Both scenarios would be a worst case scenario for surge into Tampa Bay.

That said, there’s still the potential for an eventual track that takes Milton as far north as the central Nature Coast or as far south as the Fort Myers area.

So, for those of you on the Florida Peninsula, the exact track of Milton is going to be extremely important. There will be a large and major hurricane approaching the west coast of Florida during Wednesday and this will lead to widespread hurricane impacts regardless of track. That said, the exact track of Milton is going to be extremely important in determining which parts of the West Coast of Florida sees the worst storm surge. The worst surge will come in at and south of where Milton comes ashore, so a track into the area north of Tampa has a drastically different outcome than a track into Sarasota or Fort Myers. This isn’t just for Tampa; it’s for the entire heavily populated west coast. Because of this, I strongly urge everyone on Florida’s west coast to prepare for a major hurricane that’ll produce a catastrophic storm surge.

Forecast Strength: Milton is expected to maintain Category 4 to Category 5 strength right through Tuesday night. In fact, it may peak in strength during Tuesday night and Wednesday morning with some of the high resolution models showing the potential for a hurricane with a central pressure in the 880s and 890s!!

During Wednesday, increasing wind shear should lead to the weakening of the hurricane as it approaches the West Coast of Florida. Unfortunately, this is going to mean very little when it comes to storm surge. Even if the hurricane weakens, the surge will lag way behind because that surge has already built up. Because of this, if Milton makes landfall as a Category 2 or 3 hurricane, it’ll still have the surge equivalent to a upper end Category 4 or Category 5 hurricane at landfall. Because of this, expect a catastrophic storm surge even with a weakening hurricane at landfall.

This all means that you need to prepare for the absolute worst along Florida’s West Coast!!

My Thinking As Of Right Now Is for Milton to make landfall along Florida’s West Coast in the area between Clearwater and Sarasota as a solid Category 3 hurricane with 120-125 mph winds.

I then still think that Milton will cross the Florida Peninsula very near the I-4 corridor leading hurricane conditions to occur across not only Central Florida but also across the Space Coast of Florida and possibly into parts of the First Coast of Florida.

I cannot emphasize enough that any slight shifts in the track of Milton will make a world of difference in both wind and surge impacts for your location.

Areas that are north of where the center makes landfall are at risk of hurricane force winds with gusts that exceed 100-120 mph and flooding rainfall. The surge threat, however, will be limited.

It’s the areas along and south of where Milton comes in, especially the areas from near Tampa to Fort Myers that will see onshore winds and a storm surge (10 to 15 feet of surge) that’s worse than anything seen in over 100 years.

Now I Want To Be Completely Blunt With You – If you get an order to evacuate, you need to leave. It’s as simple as that. Help is not coming for you if you get into trouble in the eye wall of a major hurricane when you’re in 7 feet of water that’s rising all around you inside your home, or trying frantically to cut a hole in your roof as you’re stuck in your attic because the surge has reached you in your attic and you’re about to drown. These things happened during the Tampa 1921 hurricane and they have happened in other areas along the coast during other major surge events. These things have happened before and they will happen again.

Follow all evacuation orders to save your life!!

Also, if you live within 50 miles of where the eye is crossing Florida and you live in a mobile home, you should also evacuate due to the likelihood of your mobile home being severely damaged by strong winds.

Forecast Impacts:
Heavy Rain:

Storm Surge: The storm surge will be the worst part of this hurricane, by far. At this point, Tampa Bay should expect, at a minimum, a Helene-type surge. If Milton tracks over or just north of Tampa Bay, the surge will be several feet higher and much more forceful than Helene.

For areas south of Tampa, including Sarasota, Fort Myers and Naples, the surge will be much worse than Helene. Again, I cannot emphasize this enough, you should heed all evacuation orders.

Wind: The area that’s going to have the greatest threat for damaging hurricane force winds will be from north of Lake Okeechobee through the I-4 corridor between Tampa, Orlando and Daytona Beach to near and south of Gainesville.

Elsewhere, tropical storm force winds are expected across the rest of the Florida Peninsula throughout Wednesday and Wednesday night. One area that may not see tropical storm conditions is far South Florida and the Keys.

Model Track Forecast:

Satellite Imagery:

Frequent updates and discussions on Milton will continue to be sent out as needed between now and Thursday.

Milton continues to rapidly strengthen this morning and that’s putting it mildly. Latest reconnaissance aircraft have now found the hurricane is an extremely powerful upper end Category 4 hurricane with 150 mph winds and a central pressure of 940 millibars. This Category 4 rating is 24-36 hours sooner than what I thought we’d see. Because of this, Milton looks quite likely to become a Category 5 hurricane for a while as soon as later today or tonight.

This rapid strengthening is truly astounding as just last night, the hurricane was a strengthening Category 1 and now we have a borderline Category 4-5 hurricane.

It’s still expected that increasing wind shear will lead to some weakening on Wednesday as Milton approaches the West Coast of Florida making landfall late Wednesday afternoon or Wednesday evening as probably still a Category 3 hurricane. Where Milton makes landfall on the West Coast of Florida remains uncertain, but the range seems to be from near Tampa to about between Fort Myers and Sarasota. Even if Milton weakens before it makes landfall, it’ll still push a catastrophic storm surge of up to 10 feet along much of the West Coast of Florida. Please take all evacuation orders seriously and get out. This is not a hurricane you want to mess around with.

I’m going to try to get some sleep (haven’t been to bed yet). Full discussion with all of the maps will be sent out sometime this afternoon.