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Milton is still an extremely dangerous Category 4 hurricane with 155 mph winds and will bring a catastrophic storm surge tonight to the West-Central and especially the Southwest Florida Coast. All preparations, including evacuations, need to be done by midday today. Weather conditions are likely to begin deteriorating pretty quickly across the Florida Peninsula this afternoon.

Satellite imagery as of 8:30 am this morning indicated that the hurricane may be trying to undergo another eye wall replacement cycle. Also, it seems that dry air pushing eastward from the western and the central Gulf of Mexico seems to be impinging on the western side of the hurricane. We’ll have to see in the coming hours what sort of effect the dry air and eye wall replacement cycle has on Milton.

Something else that I continue to watch is the continuing track that Milton is taking, which is slightly to the south of most models. If this continues, then it’s possible that Milton could make landfall in the area between Sarasota and Fort Myers instead of around Bradenton. A landfall between Sarasota and Fort Myers would substantially increase the destructive wind impact and the catastrophic surge impact across Southwest Florida, including Naples and Fort Myers.

For Now, I Think That Milton will make landfall after midnight tonight very near Sarasota and Bradenton, but again we’re going to have to watch to see if this landfall occurs closer to Fort Myers or not. As for strength, I think that we’re looking at Milton making landfall as a 125-130 mph borderline Category 3-4 hurricane.

Also, the tornado threat the rest of today is quite significant across parts of Central and South Florida and includes Sarasota, Fort Myers, Naples, Vero Beach, Titusville and Orlando. The outer rain bands associated with Milton will be pushing onshore, especially during this afternoon. Radar imagery of these bands of thunderstorms show they are exhibiting supercell tendencies and given the extreme wind shear that’s going to be present, the tornado threat looks unusually high for a tropical cyclone event. Be aware of the tornado threat and be ready to take immediate shelter if Tornado Warnings are issued across Central and South Florida as some of the tornadoes could be on the strong side in intensity.

I hope to have a new update out to you sometime early this afternoon.

Latest update on Milton includes a slight bump southward in the forecast track of the hurricane. This is due to the fact that Milton is tracking just east of the model consensus and as I mentioned earlier, we are going to have to watch for any more trends to the south in the forecast track of Milton. The reason why is because if Milton makes landfall a little further down the West Coast of Florida it would substantially increase the wind and surge threat to Southwest Florida, including Fort Myers and Naples. It’s something that I’m watching extremely closely.

That Said, I Still Think That Milton will make landfall in the area between Clearwater and Sarasota with the center point right near Bradenton as a solid Category 3 hurricane with 120-125 mph winds during the after midnight hours of Wednesday night.

I then think that the eye of Milton will probably track right over the Orlando area during Thursday morning leading to the likelihood of up to 100 mph wind gusts for Orlando, Kissimmee and Disney.

I cannot emphasize enough that any slight shifts in the track of Milton will make a world of difference in both wind and surge impacts for your location.

Areas that are north of where the center makes landfall are at risk of hurricane force winds with gusts that exceed 100-120 mph and flooding rainfall. The surge threat, however, will be limited.

It’s the areas along and south of where Milton comes in, especially the areas from near Tampa to Fort Myers that will see onshore winds and a storm surge (10 to 15 feet of surge) that’s worse than anything seen in over 100 years.

I also wanted to mention that the weather will be quite stormy during the day Wednesday across the Florida Peninsula ahead of Hurricane Milton. This stormy weather will include the outer rainbands with locally heavy rainfall and will certainly impact and hamper final preparations for the hurricane.

I’ll have a new update during Wednesday Morning.

Hurricane Milton: As expected, it appears that Milton is undergoing another round of robust strengthening with a well-defined eye now visible. Additionally, gravity waves and mesovorticies are being observed around the outer perimeter of the eye on satellite imagery and this is a pretty good indication that the hurricane is strengthening. Latest reports from reconnaissance aircraft show that Milton is once again a Category 5 hurricane with 160 mph winds and it’s still strengthening.

Forecast Track: It is expected that Milton will turn more to the northeast by tonight and then begin speeding up in forward speed during the day on Wednesday. This northeastward track is due to the hurricane being steered by an upper level trough now located over the eastern United States.

Where Milton makes landfall on Florida’s West Coast is going to depend on how sharp the turn is to the northeast. A large majority of the model guidance seems to be now honing in on the hurricane making landfall somewhere in the area between Clearwater and Sarasota just after midnight tomorrow night. I have seen the latest track guidance which has most members forecasting a landfall very near Sarasota. This shift to the south in the track guidance is due to the eastward motion Milton is taking right now. The eastward track that Milton is now taking is something that’s going to have to be watched extremely closely. The reason why because the longer the turn to the northeast is delayed, the higher the threat is for Southwest Florida and in particular Fort Myers and Naples. So, we’re going to be watching this extremely closely and will definitely have updates as needed.

Either way though, Milton’s landfall on Florida’s West Coast on an east-northeast track is a worst-case scenario for west-central and southwest Florida. Even if Milton weakens to a Category 3 hurricane before landfall, the absolute catastrophic storm surge flood impacts are now guaranteed across west-central and southwest Florida. Also, if Milton does make landfall as a major Category 3 hurricane, it would be the first direct landfall in the area between Pasco and Sarasota Counties since 1921.

Another change in the forecast of Milton is that the landfall of the hurricane looks to be a little later than previously thought. It now looks like Milton will make landfall during the after midnight hours of Wednesday night with the worst impacts expected during the nighttime hours of Wednesday night into Thursday morning.

Forecast Strength: As I already mentioned, Milton is once again a Category 5 hurricane and I suspect that it’ll remain a Category 5 hurricane right through tonight into part of Wednesday morning.

As we get into Wednesday afternoon and Wednesday evening, it is still anticipated that increasing wind shear due to the upper level trough of low pressure interacting with the hurricane should weaken it some. This means that we should see the hurricane get knocked down to a solid Category 3 by the time it makes landfall.

One thing that does still concern me is that the hurricane will be moving in the same direction as the upper level winds and because of this, it’s possible that the net wind shear over the storm will be very low. If this occurs, then we could see much less weakening than what some model guidance are showing and it’s not out of the realm of possibility that Milton makes landfall as a mid to upper end Category 4 hurricane. I’m not explicitly forecasting that, but it is something that does concern me.

Another item to note is that the overall wind field around Milton is expected to increase due to that interaction with the upper level trough. Because of this, the surge impact and the wind impact will be very widespread across west-central and southwest Florida. Also, even though Milton should make landfall as a solid Category 3 hurricane in terms of wind, it’ll bring with it a surge that’s comparable to a Category 5 hurricane.

My Thinking As Of Right Now Is That Milton will make landfall in the area between Clearwater and Sarasota as a solid Category 3 hurricane with 120-125 mph winds during the after midnight hours of Wednesday night.

I then think that the eye of Milton will probably track right over the Orlando area during Thursday morning leading to the likelihood of up to 100 mph wind gusts for Orlando, Kissimmee and Disney.

I cannot emphasize enough that any slight shifts in the track of Milton will make a world of difference in both wind and surge impacts for your location.

Areas that are north of where the center makes landfall are at risk of hurricane force winds with gusts that exceed 100-120 mph and flooding rainfall. The surge threat, however, will be limited.

It’s the areas along and south of where Milton comes in, especially the areas from near Tampa to Fort Myers that will see onshore winds and a storm surge (10 to 15 feet of surge) that’s worse than anything seen in over 100 years.

Now I Want To Be Completely Blunt With You – If you have been ordered to evacuate, you need to leave. It’s as simple as that. Help is not coming for you if you get into trouble in the eye wall of a major hurricane when you’re in 7 feet of water that’s rising all around you inside your home, or trying frantically to cut a hole in your roof as you’re stuck in your attic because the surge has reached you in your attic and you’re about to drown. These things have actually happened in past storms and they will happen again.

Follow all evacuation orders to save your life!!

Check on neighbors, family and friends to see if they are able to evacuate and if they’re not, find ways of making sure they evacuate, including taking them with you.

For those of you without any way to evacuate, please know that Florida Division of Emergency Management has partnered with Uber to provide rides to and from shelters in those counties evacuating for Milton. If you need a ride to a shelter, please follow these steps:
– Open the Uber app.
– Tap Account on the bottom right and tap Wallet.
– Add promo code MILTONRELIEF

Find a state-approved shelter at the following link – https://www.floridadisaster.org/Shelter-Status

Also, there will be free shuttles operating in Pinellas, Pasco and Hillsborough Counties assisting with evacuations to shelters. This shuttle is free and requires no reservation. Times and locations can be found at https://floridadisaster.org/Updates

Also, if you live within 50 miles of where the eye is crossing Florida and you live in a mobile home, you should also evacuate due to the likelihood of your mobile home being severely damaged by strong winds.

The storm surge will be unlike anything those of you along the west-central and southwest coast of Florida have ever seen. And….it will be at night.

Evacuation Map:

Forecast Impacts:
Storm Surge: For the Tampa Bay area, it is still way too much of a close call for you to risk to ride out the hurricane. Is there a chance that Milton will go south of Tampa? Absolutely! But you’re talking literally a few wobbles in the track that makes the difference between little or no surge or a catastrophic surge for Tampa Bay. These little wobbles cannot be predicted until a few hours beforehand and by that time it’ll be far too late to get out. So, get out NOW!! The margin for error are extremely thin and the outcomes of not acting are extremely dire.

For those areas south of Tampa Bay from Sarasota through Fort Myers and Naples, it’s almost guaranteed that a devastating and catastrophic storm surge of 10 to 15 feet will occur. This also includes Venice, Longboat Key, Englewood and even Charlotte Harbor. I cannot stress enough to try to evacuate if you are ordered to.

Now turning to coastal parts of east-central and northeast Florida and southeast Georgia, it appears that areas from about Titusville and points north to Savannah will see a 3 to 6 foot storm surge throughout the day Thursday. This area also includes Brunswick, Jacksonville, St. Augustine, Daytona Beach and the St. Johns River.

Wind: The area that’s going to have the greatest threat for extremely damaging hurricane force winds with gusts of well over 110-120 mph will be an area that includes Brooksville, Palm Harbor, Clearwater, Lakeland, Tampa, St. Pete, Longboat Key, Sarasota and Englewood during Wednesday night. The strongest winds, by far, will occur on the northern side of the storm as its making landfall.

As for Central, East-Central and Northeast Florida, hurricane force wind gusts on the order of 75-95 mph can be expected during the height of the storm on Thursday morning. This includes Orlando, all of the Space Coast, Daytona Beach, St. Augustine and even south parts of Jacksonville.

As for South Florida, low-end tropical storm force wind gusts of 40-50 mph are expected at times during the day on Wednesday.

As for North-Central Florida, peak wind gusts of 40-60 mph can be expected early Thursday morning.

Heavy Rain: There is a very substantial threat for inland flooding from heavy rainfall along the entire I-4 corridor from Milton. This includes Tampa, Lakeland, and Orlando where up to one foot of rain is expected.

In Closing: There’s very little optimism in the overall forecast with Milton, unfortunately. The hurricane is expected to produce a catastrophic storm surge across west-central and southwest Florida with widespread wind impacts and substantial river flooding and flash flooding potential across Florida’s West Coast, Central Florida, East-Central Florida and Northeast Florida.

If you still need to evacuate, you need to do so before the weather begins deteriorating tomorrow.

Model Track Forecast:

Satellite Imagery:

I will be continuing to cover Milton extensively until the threat and impacts of the hurricane are done. This means that you should look for many more frequent updates from me.

After reaching an astounding and unbelievable Category 5 strength of 180 mph winds and a central pressure of 897 millibars making it the 5th lowest central pressure in the Atlantic Basin hurricane history, it appears that Milton is undergoing a eye wall replacement cycle. Because of this, the hurricane has weakened to a still extremely powerful 165 mph Category 5 hurricane with a central barometric pressure of 914 millibars.

Some additional weakening is likely while Milton passes just north of the Yucatan Peninsula the rest of tonight into Tuesday. Once Milton moves past the Yucatan and begins its journey towards Florida’s West Coast, it seems likely that the hurricane will strengthen again during Tuesday night and peaking at an upper end Category 5 hurricane with central pressures near 900 millibars.

My Thinking As Of Right Now Is About The Same As Earlier and that is for Milton to make landfall along Florida’s West Coast in the area between Clearwater and Sarasota as a solid Category 3 hurricane with 120-125 mph winds during Wednesday evening.

I then still think that Milton will cross the Florida Peninsula very near the I-4 corridor leading hurricane conditions to occur across not only Central Florida but also across the Space Coast of Florida and possibly into parts of the First Coast of Florida.

This also means that the eye of Milton will probably track right over the Orlando area early Thursday morning leading to the likelihood of up to 100 mph wind gusts for Orlando, Kissimmee and Disney.

I cannot emphasize enough that any slight shifts in the track of Milton will make a world of difference in both wind and surge impacts for your location.

Areas that are north of where the center makes landfall are at risk of hurricane force winds with gusts that exceed 100-120 mph and flooding rainfall. The surge threat, however, will be limited.

It’s the areas along and south of where Milton comes in, especially the areas from near Tampa to Fort Myers that will see onshore winds and a storm surge (10 to 15 feet of surge) that’s worse than anything seen in over 100 years.

Now I Want To Be Completely Blunt With You – If you get an order to evacuate, you need to leave. It’s as simple as that. Help is not coming for you if you get into trouble in the eye wall of a major hurricane when you’re in 7 feet of water that’s rising all around you inside your home, or trying frantically to cut a hole in your roof as you’re stuck in your attic because the surge has reached you in your attic and you’re about to drown. These things happened during the Tampa 1921 hurricane and they have happened in other areas along the coast during other major surge events. These things have happened before and they will happen again.

Follow all evacuation orders to save your life!!

Also, if you live within 50 miles of where the eye is crossing Florida and you live in a mobile home, you should also evacuate due to the likelihood of your mobile home being severely damaged by strong winds.

Some More Facts To Hit You With: Milton is going to bring an extremely dangerous, life taking, catastrophic and historic storm surge in Tampa Bay with 10 to 15 feet of surge expected. The only hope for Tampa Bay would be a landfall to the SOUTH of Tampa, which would produce an offshore flow and nearly no surge.

The storm surge will be unlike anything those of you along the west-central and southwest coast of Florida have ever seen. And….it will be at night.

Hurricane Milton: Milton continues to undergo a stunning and terrifying bout of rapid strengthening. Latest reports from reconnaissance aircraft indicate that Milton now has 175 mph winds with a central pressure and it’s possible the hurricane is not yet done strengthening.

I cannot stress this enough – Milton poses the greatest surge threat to west-central Florida, including Tampa Bay, since 1921. The threat to the entire West Coast of Florida is truly exceptional and the area between Venice and Crystal River does not have the living memory of a direct impact from a major hurricane.

The rate of strengthening that Milton has undergone today is nearly unprecedented. The central barometric pressure in the eye of Milton has been falling at a rate of 8 to 10 millibars per hour.

PLEASE – If you live on the West Coast of Florida and are told to evacuate, please do so. Go!! Get out!! You do not want to mess with this hurricane. A significant storm surge and very strong winds are expected across a large swath of the West Coast of Florida and it’s a storm you do not want to stay around for.

This has the very real potential to be one of the most destructive hurricanes on record for west-central Florida.

Forecast Track: Right now, Milton is moving on a general easterly direction and will remain on this easterly track through tonight.

Once we get into Tuesday, it is expected that Milton will turn on a more northeasterly track as it enters a zone between a high pressure ridge over the western Caribbean and a trough of low pressure over the US East Coast. How sharply this northeast turn is will dictate where exactly Milton crosses the West Coast of Florida.

While it’s not yet possible to know exactly where landfall will occur. It does appear that the latest model guidance seem to be pointing towards a track that takes Milton onshore very near Tampa. The latest GFS model shows Milton making landfall just north of Tampa and the latest European model is showing a landfall right in Tampa Bay. Both scenarios would be a worst case scenario for surge into Tampa Bay.

That said, there’s still the potential for an eventual track that takes Milton as far north as the central Nature Coast or as far south as the Fort Myers area.

So, for those of you on the Florida Peninsula, the exact track of Milton is going to be extremely important. There will be a large and major hurricane approaching the west coast of Florida during Wednesday and this will lead to widespread hurricane impacts regardless of track. That said, the exact track of Milton is going to be extremely important in determining which parts of the West Coast of Florida sees the worst storm surge. The worst surge will come in at and south of where Milton comes ashore, so a track into the area north of Tampa has a drastically different outcome than a track into Sarasota or Fort Myers. This isn’t just for Tampa; it’s for the entire heavily populated west coast. Because of this, I strongly urge everyone on Florida’s west coast to prepare for a major hurricane that’ll produce a catastrophic storm surge.

Forecast Strength: Milton is expected to maintain Category 4 to Category 5 strength right through Tuesday night. In fact, it may peak in strength during Tuesday night and Wednesday morning with some of the high resolution models showing the potential for a hurricane with a central pressure in the 880s and 890s!!

During Wednesday, increasing wind shear should lead to the weakening of the hurricane as it approaches the West Coast of Florida. Unfortunately, this is going to mean very little when it comes to storm surge. Even if the hurricane weakens, the surge will lag way behind because that surge has already built up. Because of this, if Milton makes landfall as a Category 2 or 3 hurricane, it’ll still have the surge equivalent to a upper end Category 4 or Category 5 hurricane at landfall. Because of this, expect a catastrophic storm surge even with a weakening hurricane at landfall.

This all means that you need to prepare for the absolute worst along Florida’s West Coast!!

My Thinking As Of Right Now Is for Milton to make landfall along Florida’s West Coast in the area between Clearwater and Sarasota as a solid Category 3 hurricane with 120-125 mph winds.

I then still think that Milton will cross the Florida Peninsula very near the I-4 corridor leading hurricane conditions to occur across not only Central Florida but also across the Space Coast of Florida and possibly into parts of the First Coast of Florida.

I cannot emphasize enough that any slight shifts in the track of Milton will make a world of difference in both wind and surge impacts for your location.

Areas that are north of where the center makes landfall are at risk of hurricane force winds with gusts that exceed 100-120 mph and flooding rainfall. The surge threat, however, will be limited.

It’s the areas along and south of where Milton comes in, especially the areas from near Tampa to Fort Myers that will see onshore winds and a storm surge (10 to 15 feet of surge) that’s worse than anything seen in over 100 years.

Now I Want To Be Completely Blunt With You – If you get an order to evacuate, you need to leave. It’s as simple as that. Help is not coming for you if you get into trouble in the eye wall of a major hurricane when you’re in 7 feet of water that’s rising all around you inside your home, or trying frantically to cut a hole in your roof as you’re stuck in your attic because the surge has reached you in your attic and you’re about to drown. These things happened during the Tampa 1921 hurricane and they have happened in other areas along the coast during other major surge events. These things have happened before and they will happen again.

Follow all evacuation orders to save your life!!

Also, if you live within 50 miles of where the eye is crossing Florida and you live in a mobile home, you should also evacuate due to the likelihood of your mobile home being severely damaged by strong winds.

Forecast Impacts:
Heavy Rain:

Storm Surge: The storm surge will be the worst part of this hurricane, by far. At this point, Tampa Bay should expect, at a minimum, a Helene-type surge. If Milton tracks over or just north of Tampa Bay, the surge will be several feet higher and much more forceful than Helene.

For areas south of Tampa, including Sarasota, Fort Myers and Naples, the surge will be much worse than Helene. Again, I cannot emphasize this enough, you should heed all evacuation orders.

Wind: The area that’s going to have the greatest threat for damaging hurricane force winds will be from north of Lake Okeechobee through the I-4 corridor between Tampa, Orlando and Daytona Beach to near and south of Gainesville.

Elsewhere, tropical storm force winds are expected across the rest of the Florida Peninsula throughout Wednesday and Wednesday night. One area that may not see tropical storm conditions is far South Florida and the Keys.

Model Track Forecast:

Satellite Imagery:

Frequent updates and discussions on Milton will continue to be sent out as needed between now and Thursday.

Milton continues to rapidly strengthen this morning and that’s putting it mildly. Latest reconnaissance aircraft have now found the hurricane is an extremely powerful upper end Category 4 hurricane with 150 mph winds and a central pressure of 940 millibars. This Category 4 rating is 24-36 hours sooner than what I thought we’d see. Because of this, Milton looks quite likely to become a Category 5 hurricane for a while as soon as later today or tonight.

This rapid strengthening is truly astounding as just last night, the hurricane was a strengthening Category 1 and now we have a borderline Category 4-5 hurricane.

It’s still expected that increasing wind shear will lead to some weakening on Wednesday as Milton approaches the West Coast of Florida making landfall late Wednesday afternoon or Wednesday evening as probably still a Category 3 hurricane. Where Milton makes landfall on the West Coast of Florida remains uncertain, but the range seems to be from near Tampa to about between Fort Myers and Sarasota. Even if Milton weakens before it makes landfall, it’ll still push a catastrophic storm surge of up to 10 feet along much of the West Coast of Florida. Please take all evacuation orders seriously and get out. This is not a hurricane you want to mess around with.

I’m going to try to get some sleep (haven’t been to bed yet). Full discussion with all of the maps will be sent out sometime this afternoon.

While there are no significant changes to the forecast right now, there are some items of note when looking at satellite imagery and reconnaissance reports.

First is that satellite imagery seems to be indicating that an eye may be beginning to form and clear out around Milton.

Second is that the deepest convection associated with Milton is occurring on the southern side of the hurricane and the upward motion and energy associated with this may pull the center a little to the south over the next few hours. Wobbles like this are always expected with strengthening hurricanes.

Recent reports from reconnaissance aircraft indicate that the central barometric pressure is now around 975 millibars or so, which means that Milton continues to strengthen.

Also, the structure of the hurricane remains very robust and I think that we’ll see rapid to very rapid strengthening once we get into the daylight hours of Monday and beyond. My thinking is that Milton will quickly become a Category 2 and then a Category 3 hurricane during Monday and Monday night. Category 4 strength with the possibility of even Category 5 intensity is possible as we get into Tuesday.

The latest models continue to show a pretty strong hurricane impact on Florida’s West Coast by late Wednesday with the hurricane models showing extreme strengthening. It should be noted that the HAFS hurricane models have a tendency to overstrengthen hurricanes and its current forecast of a 180 mph Category 5 hurricane might be way overboard. Other guidance such as the GFS model are showing a landfall north of Tampa, which would be horrible for the Tampa Bay area and points south in terms of a catastrophic storm surge. Model guidance such as the Canadian model are showing a landfall between Sarasota and Fort Myers while the European model is showing a landfall right over Sarasota on Wednesday evening.

As I wrote earlier, those of you that live in a surge zone along Florida’s West Coast especially from about Hernando Beach and Port Richey southward through Tampa and St. Pete to Marco Island needs to evacuate, especially if you’re being told to. You have all day today (Monday) and all of Tuesday to prepare and if needed evacuate. Don’t wait until it’s too late.

The track forecast in relation to Tampa is going to be extremely close and a change in the track even by a few miles is going to mean the difference between little or no storm surge in Tampa Bay and a catastrophic storm surge in Tampa Bay. Further south, it is looking very likely that a very destructive to catastrophic storm surge will occur across Southwest Florida, including Sarasota, Fort Myers and Naples.

Finally, the heavy rain that’s expected across much of the Florida Peninsula will come in two separate waves. First will occur right through today (Monday) with the second occurring with Milton, which should occur during Wednesday and Wednesday night.

I expect that Hurricane Watches and Storm Surge Watches will be posted for much of Florida’s West Coast as soon as 5 am EDT this morning and if not then, certainly by 11 am EDT today. This is when you will see all sorts of evacuation orders be issued, in addition to the ones that are already in effect. Check with your local officials for evacuation order information.

Reconnaissance aircraft investigating Milton are finding that the hurricane continues to strengthen with latest reports showing a central barometric pressure of 978 millibars and near Category 2 strength winds. Also, hurricane force winds are being found in all quadrants of the storm and this is a change from earlier.

Additionally, satellite imagery and reconnaissance aircraft are also finding that Milton has a well-defined somewhat small core that’s well stacked. This means that there is very little holding it back from rapidly strengthening from here on out.

A couple of other things I wanted to mention in this short update:

The first is that the model guidance seems to be showing that the overall wind field around Milton will expand and grow larger between the time it moves away from the Yucatan Peninsula on Tuesday until it makes landfall on Florida’s West Coast late Wednesday. This is likely due to the probable interaction with an upper level trough to its north. This expanding wind field will definitely increase the surge threat along the entire West Coast of Florida.

The second is that I cannot stress or emphasize enough how serious of a situation this is. It is very likely that Milton will peak at a Category 4 hurricane and it’s not out of the realm of possibility that it reaches Category 5 strength on Tuesday before increasing shear begins to cause some weakening of the hurricane (I hope). Even with that, the surge associated with the storm will have already been built up and even with some weakening, Milton likely will drive a Category 4 equivalent surge into the Florida West Coast near and to the south of where the hurricane makes landfall. This would lead to catastrophic damage in areas that see this type of surge.

Anyone that lives in a surge zone along Florida’s West Coast especially from about Hernando Beach and Port Richey southward through Tampa and St. Pete to Marco Island needs to evacuate, especially if you’re being told to. You have all day tomorrow (Monday) and all of Tuesday to prepare and if needed evacuate. Don’t wait until it’s too late.

More Updates Will Be Sent Out As Needed.

Hurricane Milton: And here we go again!! Less than 2 weeks after Helene made landfall, it appears very likely that Milton will impact the Florida Peninsula as a major hurricane. What is uncertain right now is where exactly the eye of the hurricane will make landfall along Florida’s West Coast. That said, there is a very high likelihood that a destructive storm surge of 10 to 15-plus feet will impact west-central and southwest Florida on Wednesday leading to the possibility of the worst surge in the Tampa Bay area since the 1921 hurricane. Additionally, widespread tropical storm to hurricane wind impacts and heavy rain and flood impacts are also expected across much of the rest of the Florida Peninsula.

Satellite imagery and reports from reconnaissance aircraft indicate that Milton is rapidly strengthening now. This rapid strengthening is expected to continue for at least the next couple of days and latest indications are that Milton may reach upper Category 3 strength or even Category 4 strength as it approaches Florida’s West Coast.

Those of you living in low-lying and surge prone areas along Florida’s West Coast from Naples northward to Cedar Key, including Tampa Bay, should follow all evacuation orders. If you are instructed to evacuate, then please do so, if you are able to.

Forecast Track: The track forecast of Milton is going to be extremely important in determining which parts of Florida’s West Coast sees the highest surge levels.

From now through Tuesday, it is expected that Milton will track near due east across the southern Gulf of Mexico and just north of the Yucatan Peninsula. This is a highly unusual direction of movement for a strong Gulf of Mexico hurricane. Because of this, there are extremely few other hurricanes that have done this in the historical database.

Once we get into late Tuesday and Wednesday, an upper level trough of low pressure over the eastern United States and a high pressure ridge over the Caribbean will turn Milton a little more to the east-northeast and northeast.

This east-northeast to northeast track will lead to Milton making landfall somewhere between the Nature Coast and Marco Island late Wednesday afternoon or Wednesday evening. Unfortunately, at this point, it’s still a bit too early to pick out exactly where Milton will make landfall. Any small deviations in the track will lead to larger track shifts once it approaches the West Coast of Florida and because of this, we aren’t sure yet whether the eye of Milton will track north of, right over or south of Tampa.

I will point out that the latest consensus hurricane track model shows a track that takes the eye of Milton inland very near Bradenton late Wednesday afternoon as a major hurricane and then crosses the Florida Peninsula Wednesday evening exiting near Titusville as still a hurricane.

Forecast Strength: Milton is expected to track within an environment that’s very favorable for rapid strengthening. This includes very low wind shear, very warm Gulf of Mexico waters and plenty of available moisture. Additionally, Milton is expected to pass right over the loop current located over the east-central Gulf of Mexico and this will probably give the hurricane an extra jolt of energy and strength.

I expect to see Milton rapidly strengthen into a major Category 3 hurricane as soon as Monday afternoon, if not sooner than that. It should be pointed out that an increasing number of intensity models are now forecasting Milton to become a Category 4 hurricane by Monday night or Tuesday with a few even forecasting it to become a Category 5 hurricane.

The question then becomes how much will wind shear increase around Milton near the time of landfall. Any increase in wind shear will help to weaken Milton a little as its making landfall. That said, I would still be preparing for a Category 3 to 4 hurricane along the west-central and southwest Florida coast that’ll bring a devastating to catastrophic storm surge to Florida’s West Coast.

My Thinking As Of Right Now Is for Milton to make landfall along Florida’s West Coast in the area around Bradenton, Sarasota and Venice late Wednesday afternoon as an upper end Category 3 to Category 4 hurricane with 120-135 mph winds. I then still think that Milton will cross the Florida Peninsula very near the I-4 corridor leading hurricane conditions to occur across not only Central Florida but also across the Space Coast of Florida and possibly into parts of the First Coast of Florida.

A couple of other things that I wanted to mention – First is that a storm moving from west to east into the west coast of Florida will have the worst storm surge on the south side of the storm and the worst winds will be on the north side of where it makes landfall. Milton is going to be impacting an area that’s already extremely vulnerable due to the impacts Helene just produced. This is, sadly, going to just add insult to injury. Start preparing now for this storm.

Also, those of you along Florida’s West Coast should be taking pictures with timestamps on them of the current conditions of their homes. Two claims from two different storms could be confusing and make filing those claims difficult.

Forecast Impacts:
Heavy Rain: Heavy rain with flooding is going to be a major impact with Milton and will affect a large part of the Florida Peninsula.

This heavy rain has already begun across parts of the Florida Peninsula and will continue right through the middle part of this coming week. Widespread rain totals of 4 to 8 inches are expected across much of the Florida Peninsula with totals of 10-12 inches possible along Florida’s West Coast and also across Central Florida & along the Space Coast.

Please take this rainfall induced flooding very seriously as low-lying and flood prone areas in Orlando, Tampa and Jacksonville will likely flood over the next few days.

Storm Surge: A devastating to catastrophic storm surge of 10 to 15-plus feet looks likely to occur on Wednesday into Wednesday night along Florida’s West Coast and in particular from about Tampa and points south.

At this point, areas from Sarasota southward through Naples and Fort Myers has a higher threat of seeing an extremely devastating storm surge. If you are in a surge zone, prepare now to evacuate and do so when ordered to.

As for the Tampa Bay area and areas around the west-central coast of Florida, there is a little more uncertainty as to how high the surge may get and this depends on where the eye of the hurricane crosses the coast. If the center of the hurricane passes to the south of Tampa Bay, an offshore wind would lead to very little surge. This would be an ideal scenario, for sure. On the other hand, if Milton moves right over Tampa or to the north of Tampa, onshore winds would drive a surge of 10 to 15 feet or more into Tampa Bay and these are levels not seen since the hurricanes of 1848 and 1921.

My recommendation to those of you in Tampa, St. Petersburg, Palm Harbor and Bradenton is to prepare for a worst case scenario and hope that it doesn’t happen. There is very little room for error when it comes to figuring out whether Milton will track over or to the north of Tampa or not and the consequences of not evacuating are extremely dire. You just can’t afford to roll the dice and risk your life by not evacuating. If your flood zone is told to evacuate, then evacuate, if you are able to.

Finally, given the recovery operations still ongoing along the west coast of Florida, this sort of a significant surge is going to not only hamper recovery operations, but will set those recovery efforts back significantly.

Wind: Hurricane force winds with significant impacts are going to be an issue across not only coastal parts of Western Florida, but also across inland parts of Central Florida, including Orlando Wednesday afternoon and Wednesday night. Also, hurricane conditions are expected on the eastern coast of Florida and in particular along the Space Coast Wednesday evening into the overnight hours of Wednesday night.

Elsewhere, tropical storm force winds are expected across the rest of the Florida Peninsula throughout Wednesday and Wednesday night. One area that may not see tropical storm conditions is far South Florida and the Keys.

Finally – I STRONGLY urge you to continue preparing across the Florida Peninsula and particularly along the West Coast of Florida for a major hurricane hit.

Nothing good is happening right now with Milton and I hate this is happening yet again!! We’re facing a compounded threat with few precedents in hurricane history, as only 1926, 1950, 2004, and 2005 saw two Category 3 or higher landfalls in Florida. It looks nearly certain that 2024 will join that list with Helene and now Milton going down as as a devastating one-two punch for Florida.

I know that we are all exhausted already. You are, I am. That is reality and I know that. Unfortunately, we also have to prepare and if necessary evacuate because the surge, wind and rain threat from Milton requires us to save your life and your family’s life and protect property.

Model Track Forecast:

Satellite Imagery:

Frequent updates and discussions on Milton will continue to be sent out as needed between now and Wednesday night.

Latest data is coming in for Milton and the overall takeaway is that an extremely serious situation looks likely for the West Coast of Florida.

It looks likely that Milton will rapidly strengthen and become a major Category 3 hurricane with 120-125 mph winds on Tuesday.

Milton is then expected to make landfall on the west coast of Florida very near Tampa as potentially a major hurricane with 115-125 mph winds by Wednesday evening. If this comes to pass, it would be a worst case scenario for the Tampa-St. Pete area.

A track right over or just north of Tampa would push a 15-plus foot storm surge right into Tampa Bay leading to extreme to catastrophic damage. This is an area that has not experienced a true major hurricane landfall since 1921.

On the other hand, should Milton track to the south of Tampa, it would spare the city a major storm surge and instead lead to a “blowout”, but instead that 10 to 15-plus foot storm surge would severely impact areas of west-central and southwest Florida, including Sarasota, Fort Myers and Naples.

In addition to the potential for severe damage along the west coast of Florida, Milton is expected to cross the Florida Peninsula right near the I-4 corridor leading to hurricane conditions to occur on both coasts of Florida, as well as across Central Florida, including Orlando.

Weather conditions will begin deteriorating rapidly during the day on Wednesday with the worst conditions expected across the Florida Peninsula and in particular near the I-4 corridor from Wednesday afternoon through Wednesday night to Thursday morning.

All interests across the Florida Peninsula and in particular along the West Coast of Florida and across the I-4 corridor should be getting ready NOW for a major hurricane. Also, if you are instructed to evacuate, then I strongly urge you to evacuate, if you are able to.

Updates and a new discussion will be sent out during Sunday with frequent updates on Milton sent out as needed.

Forecast Wind Swath:

Potential Storm Surge For Tampa Bay:

Potential Storm Surge For Sarasota-Fort Myers:

Potential Storm Surge For Naples: