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Invest 92-L, which is located to the east of Jacksonville, Florida is very near tropical depression strength. In fact, I think that NHC should’ve upgraded it earlier today, but that’s besides the point.

Satellite imagery as of midday indicates that while there is a well defined low-level center with Invest 92-L, the center is exposed. That said, there has been flare ups with the convection, especially on the south side of the circulation. Reconnaissance aircraft investigating Invest 92-L have found 35-40 mph maximum winds with this system and radar loops reveal that this system is steadily heading westward towards the coast of northeast Florida and southeast Georgia.

It is expected that Invest 92-L will come ashore somewhere between the First Coast of northeast Florida and the Golden Isles of Southeast Georgia sometime during this evening.

Enhanced rainfall in the form of bands of showers and thunderstorms will affect much of north and northeast Florida and southern and eastern Georgia as the afternoon progresses with these showers and thunderstorms persisting through tonight.

Additionally, rough seas, some coastal flooding and beach erosion can be expected this afternoon through tonight on the beaches from the Carolinas to eastern Florida.

A full and comprehensive tropical weather discussion will be issued sometime on Saturday.

Tropical Depression Alberto: After overachieving in both its strength and the impacts the storm brought to a large area across the northern and western Gulf coast, Alberto is now inland over northeastern Mexico. If Alberto overachieving the way it did is an indicator of what’s to come this season, it’s going to be a REALLY long season. It certainly does look like the background conditions across the Atlantic are already favorable for an extremely active hurricane season.

Over the past 24 hours, Alberto has brought coastal flooding all the way to parts of the southeastern Louisiana coast, the Mississippi coast and the Alabama coast due to the strong onshore winds from the storm. On the Texas coast, several coastal towns were impacted by major coastal flooding. The town of Surfside experienced major flooding yesterday and once again this morning. Also, a tide gauge at San Luis Pass measured over 4 feet of storm surge flooding yesterday.

Alberto will continue to weaken the rest of today as it moves into the higher terrain of northern Mexico. Alberto should dissipate by tonight or Friday morning.

Until then, this system remains very large and will continue to produce coastal flooding along much of the western and northern Gulf coast the rest of today before it subsides on Friday. In addition, heavy rainfall associated with Alberto will continue to impact northeastern Mexico throughout the day today before diminishing on Friday.

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Invest 92-L Located To The East Of The Northern Bahamas: It appears that the area of disturbed weather to the east of the northern Bahamas may try to develop into a tropical depression over the next couple of days or so.

Satellite imagery indicates that what is now Invest 92-L is slowly organizing and it seems that a small low pressure system has formed about 100-150 miles to the east of the northern Bahamas.

Analysis of environmental conditions reveals that the wind shear values over Invest 92-L are favorable for additional development. Invest 92-L still has about 24 hours over some very warm ocean waters and this combined with the favorable environment makes me think that at least some development into a tropical depression seems quite plausible. One factor that might limit development is dry air in the vicinity, but with the small size of Invest 92-L, it may be able to avoid being impacted by this dry air.

Invest 92-L is expected to head west-northwestward and come ashore on the northeast Florida coast during the day on Friday.

My thinking is that there is about a 75 percent chance that Invest 92-L will become a tropical depression and maybe even a low end tropical storm before coming ashore on Friday along the coast of northeast Florida. The combination of somewhat favorable environmental conditions and the fact that it’ll be crossing the Gulf Stream tonight should cause it to strengthen into at least a tropical depression.

The overall impacts from Invest 92-L shouldn’t be a big deal overall, even if it becomes a tropical depression. An enhancement in shower and thunderstorm activity is expected during Friday across east-central and northeast Florida, southern and southeastern Georgia and eastern South Carolina. In addition, very rough surf, some coastal flooding and gusty winds are expected into this weekend on the beaches from eastern Florida to the Carolinas.

Lastly, I’m really wondering if this could be a hurricane season where almost every disturbance tries to develop or actually develops into a tropical system – much like 2020 or 2005. Just a thought.

Model Track Forecast:

Satellite Imagery:

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Western Gulf Of Mexico Tropical Development Continues To Be Possible This Weekend: It’s looking likely that a new area of low pressure will develop over the Bay of Campeche by about Saturday. This system could also try to become a tropical depression or even a low end tropical storm before it heads into northern Mexico on Monday. As we just saw with Alberto, the shape of the Bay of Campeche can help to spin up tropical systems and I think we may see this occur again with this new system this weekend.

This new system could bring additional heavy rainfall across northern Mexico by early next week, which might exacerbate the flood issues. Some of this rainfall may also affect parts of South Texas on Monday.

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Elsewhere Across The Atlantic, Caribbean & Gulf Of Mexico: We already have our hands full with Alberto, Invest 92-L and the potential new tropical system in the western Gulf of Mexico, so I won’t spend too much time on this section.

I did want to mention that some of the model guidance are hinting that there could be a shot at tropical development in the northwestern Caribbean late next week. It seems though that if anything forms there, it should be pushed westward into southern or eastern Mexico. Something to keep an eye on.

Also, some of the model guidance seems to suggest the central and eastern tropical Atlantic between the Lesser Antilles and the coast of Africa may need to start being watched for possible tropical development at the very end of this month into the start of next month. At this point, only a handful of ensemble members are showing actual tropical development and because of this, the chances of tropical development are very low.

The next tropical weather discussion will be issued on Friday.

Tropical Storm Alberto: We now have Tropical Storm Alberto in the western Gulf of Mexico as the shape of the coastline around the Bay of Campeche is working its magic in spinning up this system. The curved coastline of the Bay of Campeche is helping to tighten up the low-level circulation of Alberto with satellite imagery showing a curved band of deep thunderstorm activity thats paralleling the coast of the Bay of Campeche.

Reports from reconnaissance aircraft indicate that there are 40-45 mph maximum winds occurring with Alberto and the central barometric pressure is about 995 millibars. It would not surprise me to see Alberto strengthen a bit more as the environmental conditions are favorable for strengthening. One factor that might hinder strengthening is its large overall size, which can slow the rate of strengthening.

Alberto is expected to head westward and come ashore very near Tampico, Mexico late tonight or during Thursday morning as perhaps a 50 mph or so tropical storm.

The main impact from Alberto will be heavy rainfall with the threat for flash flooding across northeastern Mexico and south Texas through Thursday. Additional rainfall amounts the rest of today through Thursday will be in the 4 to 8 inch range across northeastern Mexico and south Texas, including Brownsville, Laredo and Corpus Christi.

Continued coastal flooding is going to be a threat along the entire Texas coast the rest of today through Thursday. The area most likely to see at least moderate amounts of coastal flooding with up to a 4 foot storm surge will be an area from Sabine Pass to Matagorda Bay and this includes Galveston. In fact, significant flooding has already occurred this morning in Surfside Beach and also in Matagorda. I anticipate more of the same in the way of coastal flooding right through Thursday.

Model Track Forecast:

Satellite Imagery:

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Western Gulf Of Mexico Tropical Development Possible This Weekend: It still looks quite possible that we will see another broad low pressure system form right behind Alberto over the southern Gulf of Mexico this weekend. It’s possible that this new system could develop into a tropical depression over the western Gulf of Mexico around Sunday or Monday. Once again, the shape of the Bay of Campeche may help to spin this system up and it’s not out of the question we could see a low-end tropical storm develop by early next week.

The upper level weather pattern of a high pressure ridge to the north of this system should cause this system to head west or west-northwestward into northeastern Mexico by later Monday or Tuesday.

The main threat looks to be the production of additional heavy rainfall across eastern and northeastern Mexico and South Texas early next week. It’s something to keep an eye on.

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Area Of Disturbed Weather Located To The East Of The Bahamas: I’m still keeping an eye on an area of disturbed weather that’s located over the southwestern North Atlantic to the east of the Bahamas. Satellite imagery indicates that this disturbed weather is producing disorganized convection and the environmental conditions are not really favorable for development.

This area of disturbed weather is expected to be pushed westward by a big high pressure system to the north. This should bring this disturbance inland along the US Southeast Coast between South Carolina and northeast Florida by Friday.

The only real impacts from this system will be an enhancement in the shower and thunderstorm activity across north and northeast Florida, southern and southeastern Georgia and eastern South Carolina during the day on Friday. Gusty onshore winds are also expected the rest of this week through this weekend on the beaches from eastern North Carolina to eastern Florida.

The next tropical weather discussion will be issued on Thursday.

Potential Tropical Cyclone #1: Potential Tropical Cyclone #1 has become somewhat better organized today with deeper convection now seemingly beginning to increase. In addition, there are signs that seem to suggest that PTC #1 is consolidating and it seems plausible that this system will become Tropical Storm Alberto by later Wednesday or so with 40-45 mph winds or so.

What exactly is a Potential Tropical Cyclone? It is the designation that the National Hurricane Center has come up with that classifies a system that isn’t yet a tropical depression or tropical storm but is likely to become one. This allows the National Hurricane Center to issue watches and warnings when land impacts are expected.

Potential Tropical Cyclone #1 is expected to meander around the Bay of Campeche and the southwestern Gulf of Mexico the rest of today. By Wednesday, it is expected that PTC #1 will turn to the west as its steered by a large high pressure system to the north. This should bring this system inland near Tampico, Mexico sometime during Wednesday night.

Even though this system is quite broad, it should tighten up and strengthen before it reaches the coastline of eastern Mexico. Because of this, I wouldn’t be surprised to see this system make landfall as a 45-50 mph tropical storm near Tampico on Wednesday night.

Heavy Rain Will Be The Main Threat with this system. Heavy rain will begin to affect the middle and lower Texas coast and northeastern Mexico late tonight and Wednesday with the worst of the rainfall expected throughout the day on Wednesday across areas from Matagorda Bay southward through Corpus Christi to Brownsville.

The heavy rain should slowly diminish on Thursday as PTC #1 moves inland over Mexico.

Total rainfall amounts of 6 to 10 inches with locally higher amounts are expected from Matagorda Bay through Corpus Christi and Brownsville with most of that rain occurring during the day on Wednesday. This rainfall is likely to produce significant amounts of flash flooding and urban flooding.

North of Matagorda, the rain totals look to decrease to 4 to 6 inches near Galveston to 1 to 3 inches in the area from Houston to Lake Charles.

Coastal flooding is also expected along the entire Texas coast from the rest of today through Wednesday and Thursday. The worst of the coastal flooding looks to occur along the upper Texas coast from Sabine Pass through Galveston to just east of Matagorda Bay.

Model Track Forecast:

Satellite Imagery:

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Area Of Disturbed Weather Located To The East Of The Bahamas: An area of disturbed weather is located over the southwestern North Atlantic to the east of the Bahamas. Satellite imagery indicates that this disturbed weather is producing more convection than it did at this time yesterday, but it lacks any real organization.

It is looking increasingly more likely that this area of disturbed weather will not develop as the environmental conditions will not be favorable enough to permit development. It’s expected that this system will head westward reaching coastal parts of northeast Florida, Georgia and South Carolina late Thursday night into Friday.

Only effects from this disturbed weather will be a slight increase in shower and thunderstorm activity on Thursday into Friday across north Florida, southern and eastern Georgia and eastern South Carolina. Additionally, gusty onshore winds are likely to continue the next couple of days or so from coastal North Carolina to eastern Florida.

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Another Chance At Gulf Of Mexico Tropical Development This Weekend: Things are expected to remain active right through this weekend as another tropical system may form over the Bay of Campeche or the southern Gulf of Mexico right behind PTC #1.

It’s possible that this new system next week could become a tropical depression or even a tropical storm as its guided westward or northwestward by that big high pressure system to the north. This means that any system that forms may be steered towards eastern Mexico or the lower and middle Texas coast around Monday or so.

The big concern with a second system moving in right behind PTC #1 is that it’ll probably produce additional heavy rainfall with potential flash flooding across eastern and northeastern Mexico into the lower and middle Texas coast by early next week. It’s something to definitely watch closely.

The next tropical weather discussion will be issued on Wednesday.

Invest 91-L Located Over The Bay Of Campeche: Satellite imagery and other weather data indicates that there is a broad low pressure system that’s located over the Bay of Campeche this afternoon. This low pressure system has been designated Invest 91-L by the National Hurricane Center. Already, Invest 91-L is producing up to 35-40 mph winds over the southern Gulf of Mexico and satellite imagery indicates that there is not only deep convection occurring from the Bay of Campeche eastward to the northwestern Caribbean. In addition, satellite loops indicate that there is some pretty decent outflow occurring around Invest 91-L, which means the environmental conditions are favorable for development.

Analysis of environmental conditions reveals that the wind shear values are favorable for development over the southern Bay of Campeche right about where the broad low pressure system is located. Because of this, I do think that it’s very likely (more than a 90 percent chance) that Invest 91-L will become our first named storm of the season (Alberto) in the next couple of days or so.

It is still likely that Invest 91-L will move to the west and west-northwest as it’s guided by a large upper level high pressure system over the northeastern United States. This track should bring this system inland somewhere between Tampico, Mexico and Brownsville, Texas on Thursday as perhaps a 40-45 mph tropical storm.

Model Track Forecast:

Satellite Imagery:

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Heavy Rain With Very Significant Flash Flooding Tuesday Through Thursday Along Parts Of The Texas Coast: Heavy rain with the threat for flash flooding, some of it quite significant, is going to be a big time problem along parts of the Texas coast from Tuesday through Thursday.

The area that I’m most concerned about in terms of excessive rainfall totals is from about South Padre Island to Lake Jackson where 8 to 12 inches of rain with locally higher amounts can be expected.

The setup for this heavy rainfall event is going to be the production of excessive amounts of moisture across the western Gulf of Mexico throughout this week. This excessive moisture will lead to the likelihood of heavy rainfall production along the entire Texas coast from Tuesday through Thursday.

The big question now is where will the heaviest rainfall totals occur and at this point, it appears that an area from near Lake Jackson to about Corpus Christi will see the highest rainfall totals of up to one foot with local amounts of 16 inches possible in a 2-3 day time period. Very significant and very serious flash flooding is extremely likely along this part of the Texas coast.

Further to north and east, rain totals of 3 to 6 inches look likely from Houston-Galveston to Port Arthur and Lake Charles. Further to the south, rain totals of 5 to 8 inches look likely along the lower Texas coast south of Corpus Christi. Flash flooding is expected from Tuesday through Thursday along the upper Texas coast and along the lower Texas coast.

In addition to this, very gusty winds with gusts of 40-plus mph, dangerous seas, strong rip currents and coastal flooding looks likely along the Texas coast from about Galveston Island to South Padre Island throughout this week.

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Southwestern North Atlantic Tropical Development Possible By The Middle Part Of This Week: An area of disturbed weather is located over the southwestern North Atlantic to the east of the Bahamas. This is the area that I’m watching for possible tropical development as we get into the middle part of this week.

A look at the environmental conditions reveals that the wind shear values are favorable for development. That said, the model guidance now seem to insist that any development will be minimal.

Here Are My Thoughts: Even though the model guidance really don’t show any appreciable development now of this system, the weather pattern setup for tropical development over the southwestern North Atlantic is a classic one and because of that, I do think that we need to keep an eye on this system, especially since it’ll be headed towards the US Southeast coast.

With the position of the upper level high pressure system over the northeastern United States, the steering currents are such that any system, whether its a disturbance, a depression or a low-end tropical storm would be guided towards an area between northeast Florida and northeastern South Carolina by about Thursday or Friday.

At this point, I still think that there’s about a 20 percent chance for tropical development around the middle part of this week in the area to the east of the Bahamas.

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Another Chance At Gulf Of Mexico Tropical Development Next Week: It still looks like there could be a second round of tropical development over the Bay of Campeche and the southern Gulf of Mexico next week.

The model guidance are pointing towards that Central American Gyre to spit out another system that could become a tropical system over the southern Gulf of Mexico or the Bay of Campeche by the start of next week.

Where this possible system goes is uncertain as model guidance have differing solutions with the GFS model forecasting a track towards the Louisiana coast late next week. The European model forecasts any system to head for the upper Texas coast and southwestern Louisiana later next week.

A majority of the European ensemble model guidance seems to suggest any tropical system would head for the middle or upper Texas coast around the middle and later parts of next week. The GFS ensemble model guidance is more spread out with some members showing a track towards the Texas coast and other members pointing towards a track towards the northern and northeastern Gulf coast.

At this point, I think that it’s way too soon to make any specific calls on where next week’s system may or may not go. I do think that there is definitely a strong signal for tropical development to occur once again in the southern Gulf of Mexico in about a week from now and it’s something that I’m going to be watching very closely.

The next tropical weather discussion will be issued on Tuesday.

Bay Of Campeche & Southwestern Gulf Of Mexico Tropical Development Possible By The Middle Part Of This Week: Satellite imagery this afternoon indicated that we have an area of disturbed weather that’s taken shape from the northwestern Caribbean westward to the Yucatan Peninsula.

It is expected that a broad low pressure system will develop over the Bay of Campeche late Monday into Tuesday. This low pressure system is expected to head westward or west-northwestward as it’s guided by a large upper level high pressure system over the northeastern United States.

As this low pressure system heads towards the western Gulf of Mexico, it may find itself in an environment that’s favorable for development into a tropical depression or a low-end tropical storm. How far north in latitude this system travels is still somewhat uncertain with guidance such as the GFS model showing a track right towards the Texas-Mexico border area. Other forecast guidance such as the European model is showing a track that takes this system towards eastern Mexico near Tampico.

Any tropical system, whether it’s a tropical depression or a low-end tropical storm, will end up coming ashore somewhere between Tampico, Mexico and Brownsville, Texas by about Thursday.

Heavy Rain With Very Significant Flash Flooding Tuesday Through Friday Along The Entire Texas Coast & The Southwestern & South-Central Louisiana Coast: Either way, heavy rain with the threat for flash flooding, some of it quite significant, is going to be a big time problem along the Texas coast into coastal parts of southwestern Louisiana beginning on Tuesday and continuing all the day until late Friday or even Saturday.

Rain totals now look to range from 4 to 6 inches along the south-central and southwestern Louisiana coast to 8 to 12 inches with locally higher amounts along the entire Texas coast. It cannot be emphasized enough that flash flooding is very likely in an area from Brownsville, Texas to Cameron, Louisiana and some of this flash flooding could be extremely serious and quite significant.

In addition to this, hazardous seas, rip currents and very rough surf looks likely throughout much of this coming week along the entire Texas coast.

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Southwestern North Atlantic Tropical Development Possible By The Middle Part Of This Week: As I mentioned in my update yesterday, I’m now watching the southwestern North Atlantic in the area to the east of the Bahamas for possible tropical development by about the middle part of this week.

An area of low pressure is expected to try to form to the east of the Bahamas by about Tuesday as energy and moisture is left behind at the tail end of a departing frontal boundary. A big upper level high pressure system us expected to build to the north of this system over the northeastern United States, which will trap this system and send it westward. This is a classic weather setup for tropical development and it’s something that I’m going to be keeping close tabs on throughout this coming week.

One thing to note is that the weather forecast guidance has backed off some on their forecast intensity of this system.

The GFS model shows a track of what it shows to be barely a tropical depression to head for central Florida by Thursday.

The Canadian model doesn’t even show this system becoming a depression and instead forecasts a disturbance to head for the South Carolina coast near Myrtle Beach by about Friday.

The latest European model also no longer shows this system becoming a depression and instead forecasts a trough of low pressure to come ashore along the southeastern North Carolina coast by Friday.

It should be noted that this is going to be a very small system in overall size and the model guidance can have a hard time seeing a system this small. Because of this, the model guidance can sometimes under forecast the strength of a system like this. So, even though the model guidance are showing very weak or no development, they could be totally wrong and could be missing this system. Something to keep in mind.

Here Are My Thoughts: The environmental conditions look somewhat favorable for development of any low pressure system that forms to the east of the Bahamas by the middle part of this week. Given the classic weather pattern setup for tropical development over the southwestern North Atlantic, I do think that we need to keep an eye on this system, especially since it’ll be headed towards the US Southeast coast.

With the position of the upper level high pressure system over the northeastern United States, the steering currents are such that any system, whether its a disturbance or a depression or tropical storm would be guided towards an area between the east coast of Florida and the Lowcountry of South Carolina by about Thursday or Friday.

At this point, I think that there’s about a 20 percent chance for tropical development around the middle part of this week in the area to the east of the Bahamas.

It’s something to certainly keep an eye on and I’ll definitely keep you updated throughout this coming week.

The next tropical weather discussion will be issued on Monday.

I wanted to send out this quick update as it seems that the weather pattern may support the possibility of some sort of tropical development to occur over the southwestern North Atlantic during the new week.

A large upper level high pressure system will be in place over the Northeastern United States throughout the new week leading to some very hot and humid weather across the Mid-Atlantic and Northeastern United States.

To the south of this high pressure ridge, it is expected that there will be lowering barometric pressures over the southwestern North Atlantic. At the same time this is occurring, energy and moisture looks to be left behind over the southwestern North Atlantic by a frontal boundary lifting out. This is really a classic setup for tropical development (big high pressure to the north with energy and moisture left behind) and it’s something that I’m going to be watching closely.

The model guidance, at the minimum, are showing a sharp trough of low pressure that heads westward during the new week reaching an area between eastern Florida and the South Carolina coast around Thursday or so. The GFS model and its ensemble members seem to suggest a tropical depression or low end tropical storm impact somewhere between Jacksonville, Florida and Charleston, South Carolina on Thursday. On the other hand, the European model and its ensemble members are showing a tropical depression or low end tropical storm to move right over the central and southern Florida Peninsula from east to west on Thursday and then heads for the Mississippi and Louisiana coasts around Friday into next Saturday.

At this point, it’s definitely something that’s caught my attention and I’ll be watching it closely. For now though, I put the chances of tropical development in the southwestern North Atlantic at about 10-20 percent or so.

This is all in addition to the potential for southwestern Gulf of Mexico tropical development to occur during the first half of the new week and the likelihood of heavy rain and the potential for flash flooding along the entirety of the Texas and Louisiana coasts from Tuesday through Friday. Rain totals of 5 to 10 inches with locally higher amounts seem to be a likelihood along the entire Louisiana and Texas coastlines.

Needless to say, I’m also keeping close tabs on the potential of both the heavy rain threat along the Texas and Louisiana coasts and also the potential for tropical development closely and will have more updates in the coming days.

A full comprehensive tropical weather discussion will be sent out during Sunday afternoon.

Bay Of Campeche & Southwestern Gulf Of Mexico Tropical Development Possible By The Middle Part Of Next Week: It continues to look quite possible that we’ll see an area of low pressure form over the area around the Bay of Campeche and the southwestern Gulf of Mexico around about Monday or so.

The reason why we may see this low pressure system develop is due to energy and rotation being spit out from a larger area of low pressure centered over Central America. This larger low pressure system is sometimes referred to as the Central American Gyre. These Central American Gyre spawned systems are very difficult to forecast as there’s always quite a bit of uncertainty as to where exactly the dominant low pressure center will set up.

The model guidance usually are pretty unreliable in these types of weather setups and oftentimes have large differences in just one or two model runs. Latest model guidance seems to somewhat agree on showing the potential for tropical development over the Bay of Campeche by the middle part of next week. The GFS model now seems to want to bury this system in the southern Bay of Campeche while the European model forecasts a track that keeps this system over the northern Bay of Campeche. This leads to very different outcomes with the GFS model forecasting this system to come ashore over southeastern Mexico and the European model showing this system to come ashore over northeastern Mexico.

Here Are My Thoughts: I do think that we’ll probably see the development of our first named storm of the season by the middle part of next week over the Bay of Campeche. I think that the chances of this occurring are about 75 percent.

As for a possible track, a building high pressure ridge over the eastern United States next week will very likely steer this tropical system to the west and west-northwest towards eastern and northeastern Mexico moving ashore late Wednesday into Thursday of next week.

The easterly and southeasterly wind flow in-between this potential tropical system and the big high pressure system over the eastern United States will lead to periods of heavy rain to occur along much of the Texas coast beginning on Tuesday of next week and continuing right through the end of next week. Rain totals of 3 to 6 inches with locally higher amounts are expected along and south of I-10 across southeast and south Texas. This likely will lead to flood threat across southeast Texas and parts of south Texas during the middle and later parts of next week.

In addition to this, hazardous seas, rip currents and very rough surf looks likely throughout much of next week along the entire Texas coast.

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Another Chance At Gulf Of Mexico Tropical Development Could Occur Next Weekend (June 22-23): That Central American Gyre could try to spit out a second tropical system over the Gulf of Mexico next weekend (June 22-23). That said, this is a very low probability event just because it’s still over a week away and a lot will depend on the evolution of the first potential tropical system.

In terms of model guidance, it seems that the latest model guidance has backed away a bit from their previous forecasts of showing a second tropical system to form. That said, some of the ensemble members of the GFS model and the European model still show the potential for a second tropical system next weekend.

At this point, my advice is to just keep an eye on things and I do think the chances of a second tropical system forming next weekend in the Gulf of Mexico are low (about a 20 percent chance).

The next tropical weather discussion will be issued on Sunday.

Invest 90-L Located Over The Southwestern North Atlantic: The area of disturbed weather designated Invest 90-L is now located over the southwestern North Atlantic to the east of the coast of Florida. This disturbance has the chance to develop some during the rest of today right through Friday as it heads to the northeast into the open Atlantic. At this point, I don’t anticipate Invest 90-L to become a tropical depression or a tropical storm, but it will be watched anyways.

Invest 90-L has already produced extreme amounts of rainfall with very significant flash flooding across North Miami and Broward Counties during the day on Wednesday. These extreme amounts of rainfall turned streets into rivers along the I-95 corridor in southeastern Florida.

Rainfall totals of more than a foot occurred just yesterday across parts of Hallandale, Hollywood Beach, and Aventura. Fort Lauderdale recorded 9.54 inches of rain on Wednesday. It should be noted that up to 20 inches of rain has occurred over the last couple of days across parts of South Florida.

Unfortunately, additional heavy rain is expected the rest of today right through Friday across South Florida. 5 to 10 more inches of rain can be expected through Friday evening across areas including Fort Lauderdale, Miami, Homestead and Naples. With the ground completely saturated and streets filled with standing water, it will take very little additional rain to cause even more flooding across South Florida.

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Two Chances For Tropical Development Over The Gulf Of Mexico Next Week: The Gulf of Mexico may be a busy place in terms of disturbed weather next week as a large low pressure system is expected to be in place over Central America. This Central American low pressure system is expected to spit out one and possibly even two pieces of energy that have the chance to become tropical systems next week.

System Number One has the potential to form over the Bay of Campeche and the southwestern Gulf of Mexico late this weekend or early next week. I think this first system has a very decent chance (probably at least a 70 percent chance) to develop into a tropical depression or a tropical storm as it’s steered west or west-northwestward towards eastern Mexico. The reason for this is due to a big upper level high pressure system that’s expected to be in place over the eastern United States. This high pressure system will block any system from heading northward and instead steer it westward towards eastern Mexico.

The easterly flow that will be found over the western Gulf of Mexico between the high pressure ridge over the eastern United States and the developing tropical system over the southwestern Gulf of Mexico will lead to a lot of moisture to be funneled into much of the Texas and Louisiana coasts during next week.

This means that locally heavy rainfall with at least a isolated flood threat is expected along much of the Texas and Louisiana coasts throughout next week. At least 3 to 6 inches of total rainfall is a possibility during next week with locally higher amounts an almost certainty.

System Number Two – There’s the possibility that we could see a second tropical system form over the Gulf of Mexico late next week or next weekend (June 21-23 time frame). This possible second tropical system could form from energy spit out from that large Central American low pressure system.

The model guidance, for a 10 day forecast, are in excellent agreement in their forecasts of showing another Gulf of Mexico tropical system by next weekend. Where the models differ is the exact position and track of any second tropical system.

For instance the GFS model forecasts a system that tracks from the northern Yucatan Peninsula next Saturday to the central Gulf Coast next Monday, June 24.

The Canadian model shows a western Gulf of Mexico tropical system next weekend that heads for the Texas coast around Monday, June 24.

The European model now shows a tropical system forming to the west of the Yucatan Peninsula next Friday that heads towards the upper Texas or Louisiana coasts next Sunday.

At this point, I think that there’s probably at least a 20-30 percent chance that we’ll see a second tropical system form over the southern Gulf of Mexico near the Yucatan Peninsula around next Friday or next Saturday.

As for a possible track, it’s possible that the big high pressure ridge over the eastern United States will relent some by next weekend and if this happens, it could allow any tropical system to be pulled north or northwestward towards coastal Texas or coastal Louisiana around Monday, June 24 or Tuesday, June 25.

Both possible tropical systems will be watched closely and I will definitely have many more updates in the days to come.

The next tropical weather discussion will be issued on Friday.

Invest 90-L Located Over The Southeastern Gulf Of Mexico: Satellite imagery, radar loops and weather analysis indicates that we have an area of disturbed weather located over the southeastern Gulf of Mexico. This area of disturbed weather has been designated Invest 90-L by the National Hurricane Center. Closer analysis of visible satellite and radar imagery indicates that an area of low pressure seems to have formed to the southwest of Tampa.

Even though we have an area of interest over the southeastern Gulf of Mexico, the chances for development into a tropical depression or a tropical storm are slim. The reason for this has to do with the unfavorable wind shear conditions present from the eastern Gulf of Mexico into the southwestern North Atlantic.

It is expected that Invest 90-L will cross the Florida Peninsula during Wednesday and then head northeastward into the open Atlantic later this week.

Even though tropical development is not expected from Invest 90-L, it will produce at least 2 to 3 more days of heavy rainfall across central and especially south Florida.

Upwards of 1 to 3 inches of rain has already fallen across Western, Central and South Florida with flooding already being reported in parts of Tampa. Additional rainfall amounts over the next 2 to 3 days are expected to range from 2 to 5 inches across areas near and south of I-4 to as much as 5 to 10 more inches of rain across southwest Florida. Locally higher amounts are quite possible, especially over southwest Florida.

The rainfall over the next few days will lead to the potential for some widespread flooding across parts of South and Southwest Florida.

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Western Gulf Of Mexico Tropical Development Possible Early Next Week: A large low pressure system is expected to develop and persist over Central America later this week right into next week. A piece of this large low pressure system has the potential to spin northwestward towards the western Gulf of Mexico by early next week and this could lead to the possibility of tropical development over the western Gulf of Mexico during the first half of next week.

In addition to this, a southeasterly wind flow on the eastern side of that big low pressure system over Central America is expected to lead to a large flux of moisture to shift westward into the central Gulf Coast later this weekend into early next week. This will probably lead to the potential for some heavy rainfall to occur across southeastern Louisiana, southern Mississippi, southern Alabama and the western Florida Panhandle during Sunday and Monday. Localized flash flooding is a possibility.

Once we get into the early and middle parts of next week, things become more uncertain in terms of where the axis of heavy rain may set up. Some of the model guidance such as the European model is focusing the heavy rainfall to occur along the middle and upper Texas coast. Other model guidance such as the GFS model seems to be showing the heavy rain to occur somewhere between Corpus Christi and Houston during the first half of next week. At this point, it’s too soon to really say where the heaviest rain may set up during the first half of next week. My recommendation is to keep close tabs on the potential of heavy rain if you are anywhere along the Texas coast and the southwestern Louisiana coast.

As for the potential for tropical development over the western Gulf of Mexico, it seems that all of the model guidance are at least forecasting a low pressure system to form over the western Gulf of Mexico during the first half of next week. The difference in the model guidance is where exactly this low pressure system forms. The GFS and the European model both seem to be showing a tropical system moving inland into the Tampico, Mexico area around next Tuesday. The Canadian model shows a further north track with some sort of tropical system heading for the middle Texas coast around next Wednesday.

At this point, I do think that there is a legitimate chance that we will see some sort of a tropical depression or even a low end tropical storm form around Monday or Tuesday over the western Gulf of Mexico to the east of northeastern Mexico. As I mentioned yesterday, one factor that may aid in tropical development is the shape of the coastline in the area around the Bay of Campeche and the western Gulf of Mexico. I’m going with about a 30 percent chance for tropical development over the western Gulf of Mexico around Monday and Tuesday of next week.

The next tropical weather discussion will be issued on Thursday.