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Potential Tropical Cyclone #9: It looks like we are going to have yet another Florida Gulf Coast major hurricane landfall this coming Thursday. While there are some uncertainty with the exact track of this system, Florida’s West Coast and the Panhandle of Florida isn’t going to get out of this one, unfortunately.

Analysis as of late this afternoon indicates that the convection with PTC 9 is slowly becoming better organized. That said, reconnaissance aircraft have found that this system is still not quite yet a tropical cyclone due to a lack of a well-defined center. We’re close to having the upgrade to Tropical Storm Helene, but we’re not quite there yet. I do think that we’ll see PTC 9 become a tropical storm as soon as late tonight then a hurricane by Wednesday morning and finally a major hurricane by Thursday morning.

Forecast Track: It is expected that PTC 9 will head on a northwesterly course reaching the Yucatan Channel by Wednesday. As we get into Thursday, it is expected that the steering currents between an upper level trough of low pressure over the central United States and a high pressure ridge over the western Atlantic should steer this system to the north and even to the northeast towards the area around the eastern Florida Panhandle, the Big Bend area of Florida and the area north of Tampa.

At this point, it appears the area of highest probability of landfall is somewhere between Panama City and Cedar Key late Thursday afternoon or Thursday evening.

You need to understand that the Florida Panhandle, the Big Bend area of Florida and Florida’s West Coast are at very serious risk of a significant storm surge, strong winds and heavy rain from a potential major hurricane landfall on Thursday and Thursday night. Impacts in the way of strong winds and heavy rain will extend well inland across North Florida and south Georgia. I strongly urge you to prepare now to save life and property.

Forecast Strength: Unfortunately, the chances of this storm becoming a major hurricane continues to increase and in fact, this storm has a very high ceiling in terms of intensity. That said, there is a significant spread in the intensity guidance as to how strong this storm might get. Some guidance show it strengthening to a Category 1 or 2 hurricane while others are outright scary and show it strengthening into at least a Category 4 hurricane.

I think that we’re probably, at minimum, looking at a Category 3 hurricane landfall as the environment is likely to be quite favorable for significant strengthening. Additionally, the very warm waters over the southern and eastern Gulf of Mexico will act like “rocket fuel” and help to really bulk up this storm.

It also looks like this system will probably travel over an extremely hot water eddy and this will only fuel this storm even more. Because of this, it is likely that this storm will come ashore at peak intensity, which is at least a 120-125 mph Category 3 hurricane.

That said, there are still a few questions regarding how strong this storm will actually get.

The first question is how fast will this system organize and wrap up over the next day or so in the northwestern Caribbean. If this storm remains broad and disorganized and takes time to organize, it would strengthen much slower and lead to perhaps a Category 1 or 2 hurricane landfall. On the other hand, if this storm is already a strengthening hurricane when it enters the southern Gulf of Mexico on Wednesday, then all bets are off and we’d probably see it make landfall as at least a Category 3 or Category 4 hurricane. It needs to be pointed out that the upper level outflow over this system will be nearly ideal from Wednesday into Thursday leading to rapid strengthening and this is something that is very worrisome.

The second question is what type of interaction will we see between an upper level low pressure system over the Mississippi Valley and our storm. If the strong upper-level winds associated with the upper level low pressure system are removed sufficiently from the storm, then it’ll lead to an environment that remains very favorable right through landfall, much like we saw with Michael. On the other hand, if the storm and the upper level low are closer together, then strong shearing winds over the storm may lead to weakening as it’s coming into the coast and making landfall.

Either way, all interests on the central and eastern Florida Panhandle, the Big Bend area of Florida and along the west coast of Florida should be preparing for a major hurricane impact. In fact, the impacts from this storm could be as bad or even worse than Idalia and definitely much worse than Debby in the Big Bend area of Florida.

Here Are My Thoughts: I do think that we’ll see this system become Tropical Storm Helene as soon as late tonight or during Tuesday morning and then a hurricane during the day on Wednesday.

As I already mentioned, I do think that we’ll see substantial strengthening when this storm moves to the north and then northeast across the Gulf of Mexico from Wednesday into Thursday reaching Category 3 strength with 120-125 mph winds.

The eye of what will be Hurricane Helene should make landfall late Thursday afternoon or Thursday evening in the area between Panama City and Cedar Key as a 120-125 mph Category 3 hurricane.

That said, even a slight deviation in the track is going to be a HUGE deal. For instance, a slight deviation in the track to the east would lead to a major hurricane impact along the entire west coast of Florida from Fort Myers and Sarasota northward through Tampa and points north.

A slight deviation in the track to the west would lead to a major hurricane impact along the entire Florida Panhandle, including Pensacola and Panama City.

Any deviations in the track is something that’s going to need to be watched extremely closely.

Possible Impacts: Even with the eye of our future hurricane tracking into the Big Bend area of Florida, the impacts will be large in size and all encompassing.

Hurricane force winds can be expected during Thursday into Thursday night across all of western Florida, including Fort Myers, Sarasota and Tampa. Tropical storm force winds are likely throughout Thursday and Thursday night across ALL of the Florida Peninsula and across the central and eastern Florida Panhandle. Areas including Gainesville, Jacksonville, Daytona Beach and Orlando may see near hurricane force wind gusts Thursday afternoon and Thursday night. This is going to be a large hurricane in overall size and will affect much of Florida.

The storm surge threat with this storm is extremely worrisome as up to a 10 foot storm surge looks likely up and down the west coast of Florida, including Tampa, Fort Myers, Naples and Sarasota. That storm surge could end up being closer to 15 feet in the Big Bend area of Florida.

Possible Storm Surge For Tampa:

Heavy rainfall with flooding is likely to be a threat along the west coast of Florida into the Florida Panhandle with rain beginning as soon as late Wednesday and Wednesday night. Rain totals of 4 to 8 inches are expected.

Even further inland, there is going to be significant impacts from this storm. Our future hurricane is likely to be moving at a forward speed of 20-30 mph and because of this, it’ll be able to spread tropical storm to hurricane force winds well inland from the coast. The strong winds from this storm will spread inland Thursday night and continue on Friday. Much of Georgia, much of South Carolina and parts of southern and western North Carolina may be impacted by strong winds.

This means that widespread, significant power outages and wind damage could occur in the metro areas of Tallahassee, Atlanta, Macon, Savannah, Columbia, Charleston, Greenville-Spartanburg, and Charlotte should be prepared for very strong winds and this means to prepare with at least a few days of food and water should there be extended widespread power outages. is come to fruition.

In addition, heavy rainfall with amounts of 4 to 8 inches can be expected well inland into much of Georgia, much of South Carolina, central and western North Carolina and eastern Tennessee. Flash flooding is likely, especially in mountainous areas.

Again, this is going to be a very large hurricane and its impacts are going to affect quite a bit of the southeastern United States.

I’m going to be sending out frequent updates as well as sending out our regular discussions over the next couple of days. These updates and discussions will give you information on the latest impacts of surge, wind and heavy rainfall. That said, you need to start preparing NOW across the Florida Panhandle, north Florida, central Florida and along the west coast of Florida. This hurricane will come at you much faster than you think, so go into HURRICANE MODE NOW.

I REALLY, REALLY hate pulling out all the stops once again in warning you along the Florida Gulf Coast, but based on what I’m seeing, it’s definitely needed.

Model Track Forecast:

Satellite Imagery:

Even though I’m working on a brand new full tropical weather discussion on PTC 9, I wanted to give you a really quick update.

As you all know, we now have Potential Tropical Cyclone 9 which is likely going to be our next named storm, Helene, within the next several hours.

It is extremely likely that this system will end up being a major hurricane landfall along some part of the eastern Florida Panhandle, Big Bend Area Of Florida & Florida’s West Coast north of Tampa on Thursday. In fact, a high end Category 3 or Category 4 major hurricane landfall cannot be ruled out.

The angle of the approach to the coast and how close this system tracks to the west coast of Florida is going to be extremely important as hurricane force winds and up to a 10 foot storm surge could occur along the entire west coast of Florida, including Tampa, across all of the Big Bend area of Florida and across eastern and central parts of the Florida Panhandle on Thursday. All preparations to save life and property need to start NOW!! You only have about 2 more days to prepare for this potential major hurricane.

Strong wind impacts and heavy rain impacts will also likely extend well inland well into north Florida, southern and eastern Georgia and across parts of the Carolinas. This means that this storm will be your storm too if you are in Tallahassee, Gainesville, Jacksonville, Savannah, Charleston, Charlotte and Raleigh.

A full comprehensive discussion is coming and will be sent out by 7 pm EDT/6 pm CDT today.

Quick early morning update on Invest 97-L.

Overall, this disturbance continues to organize over the western Caribbean and we are still probably about 24 hours away from it becoming a tropical depression and then a tropical storm. I do think that once this system begins to organize and strengthen, it’ll do so quite quickly, especially once it moves into the area around the Yucatan Channel by Tuesday night or so.

The latest model guidance are quite aggressive on their forecast strengthening of Invest 97-L with most intensity guidance now showing it becoming a major Category 3 hurricane at landfall. In fact, some of the intensity guidance do show it becoming as strong as a Category 4 hurricane. It should also be noted that the SHIPS intensity guidance have a 33 percent chance of Invest 97-L strengthening to a 60 mph tropical storm in just 24 hours from now and a 25 percent chance of Invest 97-L strengthening to a 90 mph hurricane in just 48 hours from now. This is something that’ll need to be watched very closely, especially with how extremely warm the Gulf of Mexico is right now and the fact the wind shear values may be quite favorable for quite a bit of strengthening.

As for a forecast track, a majority of the ensemble model guidance are still pointing towards a track that’ll take this system right into the Florida Panhandle in the area around Panama City and Apalachicola on Thursday evening. This would lead to potential significant hurricane impacts to the central and eastern Florida Panhandle and along parts of the west coast of Florida, especially north of Tampa. It’s quite possible that this could be a large hurricane in overall size and because of this, it’s reach will be quite wide with significant storm surge impacts likely along the entire west coast of Florida and inland flooding from rain expected along the northern and eastern Gulf Coast.

I Strongly Urge All Interests From Southern Mississippi & Southern Alabama Through The Florida Panhandle To Western Florida to closely monitor the forecasts and updates with this likely hurricane threat. Heavy rain, strong winds of tropical storm to hurricane force and a significant storm surge could be a big time threat beginning as soon as Wednesday afternoon and Wednesday night and continuing through Thursday and Friday.

If you wait for the issuance of Hurricane Watches or wait for the naming of a storm will give you very little time to prepare. This is exactly why I’m warning you way in advance to start preparing for a hurricane impact and to keep a very close eye on updates if you are along the northern and eastern Gulf Coast, especially between coastal Mississippi and the west coast of Florida.

I will be sending out a new discussion on Invest 97-L a little later today which will have all of the latest info on this system.

Hurricane Francine is very close to making landfall as the northern eye wall is now moving onshore along the coast of southeastern Louisiana near Houma. In addition, Francine is strengthening and is now a Category 2 hurricane with maximum winds of 100 mph.

One pretty significant change in terms of impacts is that the movement of eye of the hurricane has deviated more to the east and thus it is moving more to the northeast. This means that the eye wall and the eye of the hurricane WILL move right over New Orleans, Slidell, Mandeville, Covington and Picayune.

Those of you in the New Orleans Metro should be aware that the core of the hurricane will move right over you over the next couple of hours or so leading to wind gusts of about 90-100 mph to occur across the entire city. This also applies to you if you are located in Slidell, Mandeville, Covington, Hammond and Picayune. Be ready for widespread power outages.

Reports from reconnaissance aircraft indicate that the hurricane is strengthening and is ripping a page out of the 2020 Hurricane Season playbook and intensifying right through landfall (central barometric pressure has fallen 10 millibars in just 2 hours and the maximum winds are now 100 mph). This means that the stronger winds aloft will be probably be able to be mixed down to the ground easier leading to some pretty significant wind gusts.

Those of you in NOLA and elsewhere across Southeastern Louisiana and far southwestern Mississippi should be sheltered in place for the next several hours.

As expected Hurricane Francine is strengthening with satellite and especially radar imagery showing an eye and a well formed northern eye wall.

Latest data from reconnaissance aircraft indicate that Francine is very near Category 2 strength with 90-95 mph winds and a central barometric pressure of 976 millibars.

It is anticipated that the eye of Hurricane Francine will make landfall later this afternoon very near Morgan City and Houma as probably about a 95-100 mph hurricane. The hurricane is then expected to travel northeastward tonight passing about halfway between New Orleans and Baton Rouge leading to much of the New Orleans and Baton Rouge areas seeing the core of the hurricane. This means that both Baton Rouge and New Orleans will likely see hurricane force wind gusts throughout very late this afternoon and into tonight.

Other than those updates, there isn’t a whole lot to say that is new about Francine.

Besides Francine, I’m also closely watching out for the increasing likelihood of tropical development to occur this weekend into early next week just offshore of the Carolina coastline. It appears what will happen is that a low pressure system will spin up along a dying frontal system off of the Southeast Coast of the United States this weekend and potentially spin up into a tropical system as it heads north and then northwestward towards the Carolina coastline. This is something that’ll be watched very closely as it could lead to some quite stormy and windy conditions from coastal South Carolina and North Carolina northward to coastal Maryland and Delaware late this weekend into early next week.

Latest reports from reconnaissance aircraft indicate that Francine is now a hurricane with 75 mph winds and a central barometric pressure of 982 millibars. All indications seem to point towards the hurricane continuing to strengthen through the rest of tonight and through much of the day on Wednesday.

Francine is expected to take a northeasterly track and will strengthen tonight and Wednesday leading to the hurricane to make landfall about halfway between Morgan City and Houma early Wednesday evening as a Category 2 hurricane with 100-110 mph winds. In addition, the hurricane is then expected to continue tracking to the northeast and will move about halfway between New Orleans and Baton Rouge Wednesday evening putting the New Orleans metro on the “dirty side” of the hurricane.

Forecast Impacts:
Wind: Southern and parts of Southeastern Louisiana is expected to see the greatest impact in terms of wind. In fact, it now looks like the core of the strongest winds will pass over the New Orleans area during Wednesday evening given the latest forecast track.

Tropical storm force winds are expected along much of the Louisiana coast and the coast of southwestern Mississippi beginning during the day on Wednesday and continuing through Wednesday night.

Hurricane force winds can be expected along the coast of south-central and southeastern Louisiana near and just east of where Francine makes landfall.

At this point, it appears that hurricane conditions can be expected from about Lafayette and New Iberia eastward through Morgan City, Houma and now New Orleans during Wednesday afternoon into Wednesday evening. Wind gusts of 100 mph or more are likely along this part of the Louisiana coast. These hurricane force winds are expected to extend inland as far as Baton Rouge, Hammond and McComb.

Storm Surge: A storm surge of 5 to 10 feet above ground level can be expected in an area along the Louisiana coast from Cameron eastward to Port Fourchon and Grand Isle. This includes Vermilion Bay and Morgan City.

A storm surge of at least 3 to 5 feet can be expected in Lake Pontchartrain, Lake Maurepas and at the Mouth of the Mississippi River. It’s possible that these surge levels may be a bit higher than this, but they shouldn’t be high enough (I hope) to lead to serious flooding in the New Orleans metro area.

A storm surge of up to 3 to 5 feet can be expected along the entire Mississippi and Alabama coastlines. A 2 to 5 foot storm surge is expected along far southwestern Louisiana and across the upper Texas coast. A 1 to 3 foot storm surge can be expected along the lower and middle Texas coast as well as along the far western part of the Florida Panhandle.

Rainfall: Heavy rain with the potential for very considerable flooding could be a big time threat across much of southern and eastern Louisiana, southern Mississippi and southwestern Alabama with rain totals of 4 to 8 inches expected. Local amounts of up to one foot is possible across south-central and southeastern Louisiana and southwestern Mississippi.

The next update on Francine will be sent out during Wednesday Morning.

Tropical Storm Francine: All final preparations for hurricane conditions across southern Louisiana should be finished up this afternoon as weather conditions will really be deteriorating throughout the day on Wednesday. Latest indications are that Francine will likely strengthen into a hurricane sometime this afternoon and then continue to strengthen, possibly at a rapid rate, later today through tonight and into Wednesday as it heads for the Louisiana coast.

My latest take is that Francine will make landfall as about a 105 to 115 mph hurricane between the eastern side of Vermilion Bay and Terrebonne Bay during late Wednesday afternoon and Wednesday evening. This slight shift to the east in the forecast track puts parts of the New Orleans metro at a higher risk from Francine.

Satellite imagery, radar data and reconnaissance aircraft reports indicate that Francine is becoming better organized today with increased banding noted near the center of the storm. In addition, reconnaissance reports reveal that the central barometric pressure has fallen to about 988 millibars.

As Francine begins its trek to the north-northeast and northeast away from eastern Mexico, it looks likely that dry air pushing off of land will become much less of a problem. This means that we’re looking at about a 24 hour or so period of very favorable environmental conditions for the storm to strengthen.

As we move through the day on Wednesday, the question becomes how will the upper level winds steering Francine line up with its forward direction. If these two line up then the net wind shear values could be very favorable for strengthening right up to and through landfall. On the other hand, if the upper level wind direction and the forward direction of the storm are misaligned then increasing wind shear during Wednesday leading to the storm to halt strengthening and even weaken as it comes ashore. This is something that’ll be watched very closely.

Forecast Track: Francine is now moving on a north-northeast heading as of the time of this writing. An upper level trough of low pressure now located over Texas will help to turn the storm to the northeast as we get into tonight and especially on Wednesday. How quick the turn to the northeast occurs will be important in determining where exactly Francine makes landfall along the southern coast of Louisiana.

Latest model guidance consensus are now pointing towards Francine making landfall very near Morgan City, which is a little further east than previous forecasts. We will need to keep an eye on any further east shifts in the forecast track of Francine as it could lead to a greater threat to southeast Louisiana and southern Mississippi than previously thought.

Forecast Strength: As I already mentioned, Francine is expected to be in a favorable to possibly very favorable environment for strengthening for about the next 24 hours. This means that steady to possibly rapid strengthening is likely through the rest of today and into Wednesday. This means that Francine is likely to be a Category 2 hurricane and possibly near a Category 3 hurricane at landfall late Wednesday afternoon.

My Forecast Thoughts: I do think that we’re looking at Francine to make landfall somewhere between the eastern side of Vemilion Bay and Terrebonne Bay late Wednesday afternoon and Wednesday evening as about a 105-115 mph hurricane. This slightly further east forecast track will mean the core of the hurricane will travel right over Morgan City, Houma, the western end of Lake Pontchartrain, Hammond, Mandeville and Covington.

We will need to watch for any further shifts to the east in the forecast track as it would put the New Orleans metro area at a higher risk for a full-blown hurricane impact. Any further east shifts in the track would also increase the threat to coastal Mississippi and this is something that needs to be watched closely.

I urge everyone along the coast of south-central and southeast Louisiana to be ready for a Category 2 to Category 3 hurricane.

Forecast Impacts:
Winds: Southern and parts of Southeastern Louisiana is expected to see the greatest impact in terms of wind.

Tropical storm force winds are expected along much of the Louisiana coast and the coast of southwestern Mississippi beginning during the day on Wednesday and continuing through Wednesday night.

Hurricane force winds can be expected along the coast of south-central Louisiana near and just east of where Francine makes landfall. At this point, it appears that hurricane conditions can be expected from about Lafayette and New Iberia eastward through Morgan City to Houma during Wednesday afternoon into Wednesday evening. Wind gusts of 100 mph or more are likely along this part of the Louisiana coast. These hurricane force winds are expected to extend inland as far as Baton Rouge and Hammond.

Storm Surge: A storm surge of 5 to 10 feet above ground level can be expected in an area along the Louisiana coast from Cameron eastward to Port Fourchon and Grand Isle. This includes Vermilion Bay and Morgan City.

A storm surge of 3 to 5 feet can be expected in Lake Pontchartrain.

A storm surge of up to 3 to 5 feet can be expected along the entire Mississippi and Alabama coastlines. A 2 to 5 foot storm surge is expected along far southwestern Louisiana and across the upper Texas coast. A 1 to 3 foot storm surge can be expected along the lower and middle Texas coast.

Rainfall: Heavy rain with the potential for very considerable flooding could be a big time threat across much of southern and eastern Louisiana, southern Mississippi and southwestern Alabama with rain totals of 4 to 8 inches expected. Local amounts of up to one foot is possible across south-central and southeastern Louisiana.

Model Track Forecast:

Satellite Imagery:

Next update on Francine will be sent out this evening.

Overall, very little has changed with the forecast of Francine. It still looks like it will be a significant formidable hurricane for the Louisiana coast when it makes landfall during Wednesday evening.

Satellite imagery as of this evening indicates that the storm seems to be still gradually wrapping up with reconnaissance aircraft finding a central pressure somewhere between 988 and 992 millibars. In addition, radar imagery from Brownsville indicates that at least a western eyewall seems to be forming and there seems to be some indications of an eye trying to form. Maximum winds with the last reconnaissance pass is about a 70 mph tropical storm.

Rapid strengthening of Francine continues to look very likely starting during the day tomorrow (Tuesday) and continuing through tomorrow night and Wednesday. As I mentioned earlier, the environmental conditions are expected to be very favorable for significant strengthening thanks to a combination of low wind shear, plenty of moisture and extremely warm ocean water temperatures. It should be noted that it is expected that Francine will move right over an area of extremely high ocean water heat content during Tuesday and this will likely give the storm an extra boost. The intensity guidance rapid intensification indicators are showing a 66 percent chance for Francine to strengthen to a 95 mph hurricane by tomorrow evening and a 34 percent chance for Francine to strengthen to a 115 mph hurricane by Wednesday morning.

I think, at the minimum, we will probably see Francine make landfall as a borderline Category 2 to Category 3 hurricane with 105-115 mph winds right in Vermilion Bay. That said, there is the very real possibility that the storm could be a mid-range Category 3 hurricane at landfall and my recommendation to you along the southern Louisiana coast is to prepare for a Category 3 hurricane.

Forecast Impacts:
Winds: Southern Louisiana is likely to see the greatest impact in terms of wind. Tropical storm and hurricane force winds are likely along much of the Louisiana coast from the eastern part of Cameron Parish eastward to Morgan City and Grand Isle beginning during the day on Wednesday and continuing through Wednesday night.

The highest winds are likely to occur near and just east of where Francine makes landfall. This means that with a landfall in Vermilion Bay, the highest winds will likely occur across the Louisiana Parishes of Vermilion, Lafayette, St. Martin, Iberia, Iberville, Ascension, Assumption, St. James, St. John, St. Charles, St. Mary, Lafourche and Terrebonne. Wind gusts of over 100 mph are likely across this part of southern Louisiana.

Further west, wind gusts of up to 50 mph seems possible from Tuesday into Wednesday along the upper Texas coast and the coast of southwestern Louisiana.

Storm Surge: A storm surge of 5 to 10 feet above ground level can be expected in an area along the Louisiana coast from Cameron eastward to Port Fourchon and Grand Isle. This includes Vermilion Bay and Morgan City.

A storm surge of 2 to 4 feet can be expected in Lake Pontchartrain.

A storm surge of up to 3 to 5 feet can be expected along the entire Mississippi and Alabama coastlines. A 2 to 5 foot storm surge is expected along far southwestern Louisiana and across the upper Texas coast. A storm surge of 1 to 3 feet can be expected along the lower and middle Texas coast.

Rainfall: Heavy rain with the potential for very considerable flooding could be a big time threat across the far upper Texas coast and across much of southern and eastern Louisiana. Heavy rain with flash flooding is also going to be a concern across southern Mississippi and southern Alabama throughout the rest of this week.

Rain totals of 4 to 8 inches with local amounts of up to 10 to 12 inches can be expected across southern and eastern Louisiana, including Lafayette, Baton Rouge and New Orleans.

Tropical Storm Francine: We now have Francine with the Tropical Storm recently upgraded from Potential Tropical Cyclone 6 based on the latest reconnaissance data.

Analysis reveals that Francine already looks like a healthy storm with quite a bit of ventilation and very deep convection. This look of Francine is very worrisome as I think it’s likely it’ll be able to tap into the extremely warm waters of the Gulf of Mexico and rapidly strengthen, especially during the day on Tuesday. This storm has a potentially very high ceiling in terms of intensity.

Francine will be steered to the north throughout the rest of today into tonight by a high pressure system now located over the eastern Gulf of Mexico. During Tuesday, it is expected that the storm will be turned more to the northeast by an upper level trough located over the eastern United States. The southwesterly winds associated with that trough will help to ventilate Francine leading to very low wind shear being present over the storm. This means that the environment looks to be extremely favorable for rapid strengthening during the day on Tuesday.

That northeasterly track is likely to continue through Wednesday bringing Francine into southern Louisiana during Wednesday evening. I still think that Francine will make landfall on the western side of Vermilion Bay as at least a 100-110 mph Category 2 hurricane (more on my thoughts about strengthening later on in this discussion) during Wednesday evening.

As for the intensity forecast – It appears that Francine is already organizing pretty quickly, however, I don’t think we’ll see much more strengthening during the rest of the day today.

Rapid strengthening of Francine is looking likely starting on Tuesday and continuing through Tuesday night and Wednesday. The environmental conditions are expected to be very favorable for significant strengthening thanks to a combination of low wind shear, plenty of moisture and extremely warm ocean water temperatures. It should be noted that it is expected that Francine will move right over an area of extremely high ocean water heat content during Tuesday and this will likely give the storm an extra boost. The intensity guidance rapid intensification indicators point towards a 36 percent chance for Francine to strengthen to a 105 mph hurricane by Tuesday evening.

I think, at the minimum, we will probably see Francine make landfall as a Category 2 hurricane with 100-110 mph winds. That said, there is the very real possibility that the storm could be a Category 3 hurricane at landfall and my recommendation to you along the southern Louisiana coast is to prepare for a Category 3 hurricane.

Forecast Impacts:
Winds: Southern Louisiana is likely to see the greatest impact in terms of wind. Tropical storm and hurricane force winds are likely along much of the Louisiana coast from the eastern part of Cameron Parish eastward to Morgan City and Grand Isle beginning during the day on Wednesday and continuing through Wednesday night.

The highest winds are likely to occur near and just east of where Francine makes landfall. This means that with a landfall on the western side of Vermilion Bay, the highest winds will likely occur across the Louisiana Parishes of Vermilion, Lafayette, St. Martin, Iberia, Iberville, Ascension, Assumption, St. James, St. John, St. Charles, St. Mary, Lafourche and Terrebonne. Wind gusts of over 100 mph are likely across this part of southern Louisiana.

Further west, wind gusts of up to 50 mph seems possible from Tuesday into Wednesday along the upper Texas coast and the coast of southwestern Louisiana.

Storm Surge: A storm surge of 5 to 10 feet above ground level can be expected in an area along the Louisiana coast from Cameron eastward to Port Fourchon and Grand Isle. This includes Vermilion Bay and Morgan City.

A storm surge of 2 to 4 feet can be expected in Lake Pontchartrain.

A storm surge of up to 3 to 5 feet can be expected along the entire Mississippi and Alabama coastlines. A 2 to 5 foot storm surge is expected along far southwestern Louisiana and across the upper Texas coast.

Rainfall: Heavy rain with the potential for very considerable flooding could be a big time threat across the far upper Texas coast and across much of southern and eastern Louisiana. Heavy rain with flash flooding is also going to be a concern across southern Mississippi and southern Alabama throughout the rest of this week.

Rain totals of 4 to 8 inches with local amounts of up to 10 to 12 inches can be expected across southern and eastern Louisiana, including Lafayette, Baton Rouge and New Orleans.

Finally – In terms of metropolitan areas in Louisiana, Lafayette and Baton Rouge will likely see very strong winds with gusts to 80-100 mph, heavy rain and flash flooding. Numerous to widespread power outages are likely.

As for New Orleans, a minor to moderate storm surge can be expected with Francine and a pretty significant flash flood risk can be expected. In terms of winds, wind gusts of over 50-60 mph can be expected during Wednesday afternoon and Wednesday night leading to scattered power outages.

Model Track Forecast:

Satellite Imagery:

Updates on Francine will be sent out as needed. The next full tropical weather discussion will be issued on Tuesday.

Invest 91-L Located Over The Southwestern Gulf Of Mexico: It appears that Invest 91-L is becoming more organized today with satellite imagery showing a large area of convection across much of the western half of the Gulf of Mexico. While this convection is still disorganized, it does seem to be trying to organize gradually.

While it will likely take another day or so to organize, I do think Invest 91-L will become a tropical depression as soon as Monday and then quickly become Tropical Storm Francine shortly thereafter.

Additionally, analysis of environmental conditions reveals that the wind shear values are low enough to support quick strengthening of Invest 91-L. In fact, intensity guidance seems to be forecasting a 63 percent chance of this disturbance strengthening to a hurricane in just 24 hours from now and a 46 percent chance of this disturbance strengthening to an 110 mph hurricane in just 48 hours from now. Without a doubt, this disturbance does have the potential to wrap up and strengthen quite quickly and it does need to be watched extremely closely.

Model guidance seems to be in pretty decent agreement in their forecasts of showing Invest 91-L tracking on a general northward course over the next couple of days. By Tuesday night and Wednesday, however, it appears that a high pressure ridge located over Florida will help to steer Invest 91-L to the northeast leading it to come ashore somewhere along the south-central and southwestern Louisiana coast during Wednesday night as at least a Category 1 or Category 2 hurricane.

One thing to mention is that models such as the European and GFS models continue to trend stronger with their forecast intensity at landfall.

The GFS and European models both are pointing towards a landfall of at least a Category 2 hurricane near the western side of Vermilion Bay on Wednesday evening.

The UKMET model seems to be pointing towards a landfall over south-central Louisiana during Wednesday evening.

Here Are My Thoughts: I still think that the center of what will be Francine will make landfall on the western side of Vermilion Bay during Wednesday night. One thing that has changed is my forecast of the strength of this system at landfall. I now think that it seems quite plausible that we’ll see this system make landfall as a 95 to 105 mph hurricane.

Additionally, it does still look likely that this system will be strengthening right through landfall and because of this the stronger wind gusts will be able to mix down to the ground quite easily. This means that wind gusts of 100-plus mph are quite possible near where this system makes landfall. In fact, hurricane force winds are a possibility as far inland as Lafayette and possibly even Baton Rouge.

Forecast Impacts: The coast of southern Louisiana will likely see the most impact from this system with tropical storm and hurricane force winds likely beginning during the day on Wednesday and continuing through Wednesday night. Obviously, the highest winds will occur near and just east of where this system makes landfall. If this system does make landfall around Vermilion Bay, it would lead to the highest winds to occur across the Louisiana Parishes of Vermilion, Lafayette, St. Martin, Iberia, Iberville, Ascension, Assumption, St. James, St. John, St. Charles, St. Mary, Lafourche and Terrebonne.

Further west, wind gusts of up to 50 mph seems possible from Tuesday into Wednesday along the upper Texas coast and the coast of southwestern Louisiana.

Heavy rain with the potential for very considerable flooding could be a big time threat across the far upper Texas coast and across much of southern Louisiana. Heavy rain with flash flooding is also going to be a concern across southern Mississippi and southern Alabama throughout this coming week.

Storm surge flooding is also going to be a threat along much of the Louisiana coastline.

I urge all interests along the Texas coast and especially the Louisiana coast to pay very close attention to the latest updates of this system. My advice to you is to make sure your hurricane kits are up-to-date. Also, take the rest of today and tomorrow to get ready – gas up your vehicle, get supplies, clean out drains, etc.

Bottom line is that I continue to keep very close tabs on the progress of Invest 91-L and I will have many more updates in the coming days.

Forecast Rainfall Amounts For This Coming Week:

Model Track Forecast:

Satellite Imagery:

The next tropical weather discussion will be issued on Monday.