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It appears that the energy and moisture from Tropical Storm Cristina, which is currently located in the eastern Pacific to the south of Guatemala and El Salvador, will cross Central America on Thursday into Friday. This energy and moisture will then push into the Bay of Campeche by late Friday and then head northwestward towards the coast of eastern and northeastern Mexico during this weekend. While it looks likely that a low pressure system and area of disturbed weather will be located in the Bay of Campeche this weekend, it seems unlikely that it’ll significantly develop due to unfavorable environmental conditions.

A look at the weather forecast guidance reveals that they do seem to point towards there being a window of opportunity for tropical development between Friday night and Sunday morning. In fact, the European ensemble model guidance does show a 60 percent chance for tropical development between Friday and Sunday in the Bay of Campeche and the western Gulf.

Additionally, it’s interesting to note that the Google Deep Mind ensemble model does seem to show the possibility of a more northerly track which would take this system to near the lower and middle Texas coast by early next week. In fact, there are a few ensemble members of Google’s Deep Mind that show development of this system into a tropical storm near the Texas and Louisiana coast by the middle part of next week. While this is a scenario that we should keep in the back of our minds, just in case, it is one that I think has a very low chance of occurring.

My Thinking Is That significant development is unlikely due to the combination of the relatively short time it’ll have over the Bay of Campeche and the western Gulf (36-48 hours) and the unfavorable environmental conditions due to wind shear.

That being said, there is the very real possibility that we could see this system strengthen into a tropical depression or even a low-end tropical storm on Saturday before it moves inland into eastern or northeastern Mexico on Sunday.

It should be mentioned again that the Bay of Campeche is notorious for spinning up quick tropical systems. The topography and the curved shape of the Bay of Campeche can help spin up tropical systems, even when none of the model guidance shows it. We’ve seen it happen many times before in the Bay of Campeche and it’s something to always watch when a disturbance moves into that area. This is one reason why I think that this system could very well spin up into a tropical depression or a low-end tropical storm before it moves inland into eastern or northeastern Mexico.

Whether this system develops or not, it will most definitely enhance the heavy rainfall potential over northeastern Mexico during this weekend and early next week. Locally heavy rainfall from the moisture of this system and already high moisture levels will affect areas near the Gulf Coast from Texas through Louisiana and Mississippi early next week. Also, areas across parts of North Texas, central and eastern Oklahoma and much of Arkansas may see heavy rain from the moisture feed of this system during early next week.

Finally – I wanted to mention that Colorado State University have lowered their forecast numbers for the 2026 Atlantic Hurricane Season. This is due to the expectation of widespread hostile and very unfavorable environmental conditions for tropical development across much of the Atlantic, Caribbean and Gulf.

They are now forecasting 11 named storms, 5 of those storms becoming hurricanes and 2 of those hurricanes becoming major hurricanes.

Additionally, they have identified the following analog years as being a close fit to this hurricane season. They are 1957, 1965, 1987, 1997, 2009 and 2015. Even though all of those years were quiet in terms of numbers, a few of them did have some very impactful hurricanes. They include 1957’s Hurricane Audrey, 1965’s Hurricane Betsy, 1997’s Hurricane Danny and 2015’s Hurricane Joaquin.

The takeaway from this is that the 2026 Atlantic Hurricane Season could very well become the “It only takes one hurricane” type season.

Because this season is likely to be very quiet (that’s obviously a very good thing), we are going to need your help a lot more in getting the word out about us here at Crown Weather. Word of mouth has always been a way for us to advertise Crown Weather & the products we offer.

Unfortunately, the “noise level” on social media has gotten ridiculously high & because of this, our messaging on what we offer at Crown Weather is almost always lost due to the algorithms social media uses to show posts. Hype always gets the likes and hits on social media & that’s something I refuse to do!!

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I wanted to update you on the slight possibility that we could see tropical development in either the Bay of Campeche or the southern Gulf either later this coming week or during next weekend.

It seems the system that we will need to watch for future tropical mischief is an area of disturbed weather that’s actually located over the eastern Pacific to the south of El Salvador and Guatemala. This disturbed weather is labeled Invest 92-E by the National Hurricane Center.

It seems that some of the model guidance, including the European model and the track model guidance want to pull the energy and moisture of Invest 92-E from the eastern Pacific across Central America and emerging into the Bay of Campeche by about Friday or Saturday. This is a change from what was expected just a couple of days ago & it’s a scenario that can lead to a tropical system in the Bay of Campeche and the southern Gulf. In fact, we most recently saw a tropical system crossover from the eastern Pacific into the Gulf back in 2020.

My latest take on this is that it’s possible that we could see a tropical system form in either the Bay of Campeche or the southern Gulf during the very end of this coming week or during next weekend. That being said, I still think that the chances of this occurring are very low (less than 20 percent). It can be quite a feat for a formed tropical system to cross from the eastern Pacific into the Bay of Campeche and then redevelop into a tropical system.

Now, if (and that is a big if) we do see tropical development in the Bay of Campeche or the southern Gulf late this coming week or next weekend, it’ll likely be quite weak. At this point, it’s just something to keep an eye on, just in case, and is nothing to be overly worried or concerned about.

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Unfortunately, we need your help again due to ongoing financial difficulties.

I had hoped that we’d see a large influx of new subscribers or renewals of subscriptions due to the start of the hurricane season, but that has not occurred as of yet.

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A new tropical weather discussion on the possibility of tropical development in the western Caribbean or the southern & central Gulf will be sent out within the next couple of hours.

Today is the official start of the 2026 Atlantic Hurricane Season & fortunately, there is nothing out there that’s going to immediately develop.

Weather analysis today revealed that there is a low pressure system now located off of the South Carolina coast. The environmental conditions around this low pressure are highly unfavorable for tropical development. It is expected that this low pressure system will head out into the open Atlantic over the next few days.

There is also a frontal boundary that’s now pushing southward through the Mid-Atlantic states right now. It is expected that this frontal boundary will push through the southeastern United States as we get into Tuesday and Wednesday and may then get hung up in the area from the Florida Peninsula to just north of the Bahamas by the second half of this week. Low pressure systems are expected to form and track along this front from the eastern Gulf to the southwestern North Atlantic between Tuesday and Thursday. While tropical or sub-tropical development seems unlikely due to unfavorable environmental conditions, they will be watched, just in case.

Another area that I am going to be watching will be the central and western Gulf later this week where there is the possibility that a piece of energy will lift northward from the Yucatan Peninsula into the central and western Gulf by Wednesday and Thursday. This piece of energy will then head towards coastal parts of Louisiana or the upper Texas coast by about Friday.

It’s possible that this piece of atmospheric energy could lead to the development of a low pressure system, but at this point, I think the chances of anything tropical coming from it are extremely low.

What this piece of atmospheric energy will probably do is bring locally heavy rainfall to parts of the central and western Gulf Coast between Wednesday and Friday.

Looking beyond this week, it’s possible that the environmental conditions may become a little more favorable for tropical development in the Gulf and the southwestern North Atlantic by the middle part of this month. If this occurs, then it could open the door for the possibility of something to watch in terms of tropical development.

Right now, there aren’t any consistent model signals that point towards development around mid-month. That being said, there are some low key signals from the GFS ensemble and the European ensemble model guidance that point towards the Gulf and the southwestern North Atlantic might be a spot to keep an eye on, just in case.

FINALLY – Where today is the official start of the 2026 Atlantic Hurricane Season, I am asking everyone to strongly encourage everyone you know to become a Crown Weather PLUS subscriber. As you know, as a subscriber, it’s well worth the money for what you get. The link to pass along to everyone you know to subscribe is https://crownweather.com/cws-plus/ .

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Summary: A significant tornado outbreak is looking very likely across central & eastern Kansas, southeastern Nebraska, northwestern Missouri and southwestern Iowa during this afternoon and this evening. Very large to giant hail and multiple strong to violent tornadoes are expected across this entire area.

Details: It’s going to be a dangerous afternoon and evening across a large part of central and eastern Kansas, southeastern Nebraska, northwestern Missouri and southwestern Iowa as an extremely unstable air mass combines with strong amounts of low-level wind shear to produce intense supercells.

These supercell severe thunderstorms will track northeastward across central and eastern Kansas into southeastern Nebraska, northwestern Missouri and southwestern Iowa during this afternoon and this evening. The environment across this entire area will be extremely favorable for strong to violent tornadoes, large to giant hail and damaging winds.

A Potentially Dangerous Situation Tornado Watch is already in effect across northeastern Kansas and southeastern Nebraska & I anticipate to see additional Tornado Watches be issued across eastern and central Kansas, western and northwestern Missouri and southwestern Iowa during this afternoon and this evening.

Finally – I wanted to mention that there is an area of convection that’s present over the southwestern North Atlantic just east of the Bahamas. While this convection looks “impressive” on satellite imagery, there is no chance at all of it developing into a tropical system. The environmental conditions are highly unfavorable for development due to strong amounts of wind shear. I just wanted to mention it, in case you were curious about it.

Summary: Severe storms are expected this afternoon and this evening in an area that stretches from east Texas into the lower Mississippi Valley and the Tennessee Valley. One area that I am concerned with is across central Mississippi and central Alabama where supercell severe thunderstorms are possible that could produce tornadoes, large hail and damaging winds.

Details: A cold front currently stretches from near the Texas Hill Country northeastward through the ArkLaTex, northern Mississippi and western Tennessee. A weak area of low pressure is currently located along this front over western Arkansas and western Louisiana.

The air mass to the south of this front is warm and very humid with dew point temperatures in the 70s stretching from south Texas across Louisiana and into western Mississippi and southern Arkansas.

It is expected that the atmosphere will become very unstable by this afternoon across areas that are to the south of the frontal system. In addition, there is expected to be strong amounts of low-level wind shear in place, which will lead to an environment that’s favorable for supercells, especially across northeastern Louisiana, central Mississippi and central Alabama.

It appears that severe storms will form in an area from northern Louisiana into central Mississippi by early this afternoon. Other thunderstorm development looks possible during early this afternoon from northern Alabama through northern Mississippi.

These storms are expected to evolve into supercells capable of producing tornadoes by late this afternoon and continue through this evening in the area from central Mississippi through central Alabama. In addition, the environmental conditions look favorable for the production of strong tornadoes across central Mississippi and central Alabama during late this afternoon and this evening.

Eventually, these storms will evolve into clusters of severe storms capable of producing mainly damaging winds across southern Alabama and central and southern Georgia during the overnight hours of tonight.

Finally, as that frontal boundary sinks southward tonight, it is expected to produce additional severe storms during the overnight hours of tonight across parts of southeast Texas, central Louisiana and southern Mississippi. I do think that a majority of these storms should stay north of I-10. Also, these storms may have the capability to produce tornadoes, damaging winds and large hail.

Summary: Numerous severe thunderstorms are expected in the area from the middle Mississippi Valley through the lower Ohio Valley and into the Mid-South this afternoon and this evening. Multiple strong to violent tornadoes of EF-3 or more in strength, widespread damaging winds and large to very large hail is expected, especially across eastern Missouri, northeastern Arkansas, central and southern Illinois, western Kentucky and northwestern Tennessee.

Details: A very active severe weather afternoon and evening is expected across much of the middle Mississippi Valley, the lower Ohio Valley and the Mid-South. It appears likely that there will be a corridor for intense supercells with strong to violent tornadoes this afternoon and this evening across eastern Missouri and central and especially southern Illinois.

NOTE – I do have significant concerns that the St. Louis metro may be at extreme risk for tornadoes late this afternoon and early this evening between about 4 pm CDT and 8 pm CDT.

An upper-level trough of low pressure is expected to push northeastward from the central and northern Plains states into the Midwestern US this afternoon and tonight. In response to this, it is expected that a surface low pressure system will develop across Wisconsin and Minnesota by this evening with a warm front stretching across the Midwestern US. It is likely that a very unstable and strongly sheared air mass will be in place during this afternoon across central and eastern Missouri into southern Illinois, the lower Mississippi Valley and the Mid-South.

Supercell severe thunderstorms are expected to develop between about 2 and 4 pm CDT across the middle Mississippi Valley and the Mid-South. These supercells will exist in a very favorable environment for tornadoes and multiple strong to violent tornadoes of EF-3 or more in strength are likely across eastern Missouri and central and especially southern Illinois.

It appears that eastern Missouri, including the St. Louis metro may be at extreme risk for tornadoes between about 4 pm CDT and 8 pm CDT. Southern Illinois may then be at extreme risk for tornadoes between about 5 pm CDT and 10 pm CDT.

As we get into the overnight hours of tonight, it is expected that these supercells will evolve into clusters of severe storms capable of producing widespread damaging winds across the middle Mississippi Valley and the lower Ohio Valley.

Summary: Severe thunderstorms with very large hail, damaging winds and tornadoes are expected this afternoon and tonight across parts of the central and southern Plains states. Strong tornadoes and hailstones of up to 3 inches in diameter are a possibility across central and eastern Kansas, northern and central Oklahoma and far western Missouri.

Details: Significant severe weather potential looks quite probable later this afternoon and tonight across parts of the central and southern Plans states.

An area of severe storms currently exists across central and northern Kansas and these storms are expected to push into northeastern Kansas and parts of western Missouri, including Topeka and Kansas City by later this afternoon. Damaging winds and large hail will be the main threat with these storms.

A surface low pressure system is expected to develop over the Oklahoma Panhandle and southwestern Kansas by this evening. A very unstable to extremely unstable air mass is expected to be in place to the east of this low pressure system across much of central and eastern Kansas into Oklahoma.

It looks possible that supercell severe thunderstorms will develop over north-central Oklahoma into central Kansas by early this evening. Other supercell storms may develop around or just after sunset across central and southern Oklahoma into north Texas. These supercell severe storms will continue through the nighttime hours of tonight, especially before midnight and will pose a threat for very large hail and tornadoes, some of which will be strong. The area of most concern for the nighttime severe storms will be across much of southern, central and northeast Oklahoma into central and eastern Kansas and even possibly into north Texas.

Summary: Severe thunderstorms with very large to giant hail of 2 to 4 or more inches in diameter, tornadoes, some strong and damaging winds are expected late this afternoon through this evening across central and eastern Oklahoma into the ArkLaTex.

Details: A warm front is expected to extend from northwest to southeast across central and eastern Oklahoma this afternoon. The air mass near and to the south of this warm front is likely to be very unstable to extremely unstable & there is likely to be very strong amounts of low-level wind shear present. This will be an environment that’s very favorable for supercell severe thunderstorms that will be capable of producing extremely large hail, tornadoes and damaging winds.

Several supercell severe thunderstorms look to develop between about 5 pm and 7 pm CDT across central and eastern Oklahoma (mainly east of I-35). Giant hail and tornadoes, some of which will be strong, will be a significant threat with these supercells.

These supercell severe thunderstorms will impact eastern and southeastern Oklahoma into far western Arkansas as well as across the ArkLaTex during this evening. Again, giant hail and strong tornadoes will be a significant threat.

Eventually these supercell storms will evolve into clusters of severe storms during the overnight hours, probably near and after midnight across the ArkLaTex. The main threat near and after midnight will be damaging wind gusts.

I Do Have Significant Concerns With The Severe Weather Threat On Monday Afternoon & Monday Evening: Widespread significant severe weather is expected Monday afternoon and Monday evening across the middle Mississippi Valley into the lower Ohio Valley and the Tennessee Valley. Several supercell severe thunderstorms that are capable of producing strong long track tornadoes and very large hail will be a significant threat across eastern Iowa, eastern Missouri, northeast Arkansas, much of Illinois, far western Indiana, western Kentucky and northwestern Tennessee.

Summary: Severe thunderstorms look most probable later this afternoon through this evening from southern and eastern Oklahoma and northeast and eastern Texas eastward through the ArkLaTex into the lower Mississippi Valley. Large hail, damaging winds and a few tornadoes will be possible. The area of greatest threat for supercells with very large hail and tornadoes will be across the ArkLaTex region.

Details: A round of severe thunderstorms look to develop across southeastern Oklahoma, northeast Texas and across the ArkLaTex by about 4 to 6 pm CDT today. The environmental conditions around these storms will be favorable for supercells capable of producing very large hail and tornadoes.

Eventually these storms will evolve into a cluster of severe storms that push into southern Arkansas, northern Louisiana and western and central Mississippi during this evening into the overnight hours of tonight. A damaging wind threat will exist with this cluster of storms tonight.

Turning To Saturday – It appears that the same areas as today will be prone to seeing severe storms Saturday afternoon and Saturday evening.

Severe thunderstorms that will have the potential to produce very large hail, damaging winds and tornadoes will be a threat across central and eastern Oklahoma and western Arkansas during Saturday afternoon and Saturday evening.

As For Sunday – Severe thunderstorms that will have the potential to produce large hail and tornadoes, some of which may be strong, may be a threat across a large part of Kansas into far northern Oklahoma and across western Missouri by very late Sunday afternoon and Sunday evening.