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Satellite imagery and weather data reveals that a strong tropical wave has just pushed off of the west coast of Africa. This tropical wave is producing a smattering of shower and thunderstorm activity & it appears that a low pressure system is attached to the wave. This is the wave that will need to be watched closely for the potential of tropical development throughout this week through probably this weekend into next week. It does appear that we will be tracking this tropical wave for many days to come.

Analysis of the environmental conditions around this tropical wave reveals that while the wind shear values are favorable for development, it appears that there is some dry air located to the north and west of the wave. This says to me that the conditions are favorable enough to support some development over the next few days. By the very end of this week and this weekend, it appears that this wave may run into some strong amounts of wind shear once it crosses the 45 West Longitude line. When this happens, then we’ll probably see the end of this wave developing any further, for now.

A look at the various model guidance reveals that some guidance such as the GFS model and the European model being fairly aggressive with their forecasts of development during this week as this wave tracks westward across the eastern and central Tropical Atlantic. Other model guidance such as the Google Deep Mind ensemble guidance and the European AIFS ensemble guidance seems to show some development over the next couple of days before those development chances drop dramatically by this weekend as the wave reaches that more unfavorable environment. It should be noted though that these two ensemble AI models then show an increase in development chances next week when this system reaches the southwestern North Atlantic in an area near or to the east of the Bahamas. This increase in the development chances next week in the southwestern North Atlantic is due to the potential for this wave to find itself in a much more favorable environment for development.

My Thinking Is That I’m not really anticipating to see a whole lot of development from this tropical wave throughout this week as it heads westward across the eastern and central Tropical Atlantic. While some development is a possibility over the next 3-4 days due to the relatively favorable environmental conditions, those chances for development are likely to drop to near zero by the very end of this week and this weekend. This is because the tropical wave will run into some strong wind shear once it reaches about 45 West Longitude.

If this tropical wave survives the strong wind shear environment in the tropical Atlantic during this weekend into early next week, then it could find itself in a more favorable environment for not only development, but also for strengthening over the southwestern North Atlantic during the middle and later parts of next week. This will be something to keep an eye on, especially once we approach next week.

For now though, this tropical wave is nothing to be concerned or worried about. More than likely, this wave will pass far enough north of the Lesser Antilles and the eastern Caribbean to not be a concern early next week. Also, we are more than a week away from this wave possibly reaching the southwestern North Atlantic where it might find itself in a more favorable environment for development. Because of this, there is more than enough time to keep track of this wave.

Things remain quiet across the Atlantic, Caribbean and Gulf right now & it appears likely that tropical development will not occur throughout the rest of this week through this weekend.

Even though things are quiet right now, there are some signals in the model data that suggest things may pick up in terms of activity as soon as next week. A majority of the most recent model guidance are now showing a marked increase in the chances for tropical development over the eastern tropical Atlantic next week that gradually pushes into the central Tropical Atlantic by the very end of this month.

The system that a majority of the model guidance are latching onto for potential tropical development is a tropical wave that’s expected to push off of the coast of Africa by early next week. This signal from both the regular models such as the GFS model and the European model and the AI models like the European AIFS and the Google Deep Mind model are the strongest we’ve seen so far this season in the deep tropics. The question then becomes is this signal real or are we looking at another phantom storm that never develops. Unfortunately, that’s something that really can’t be figured out until we get into this weekend and next week & see if the real-time data matches up with the model data.

I do want to address the GFS model guidance, which is showing a conga line of storms that stretch from the Bahamas to the eastern Tropical Atlantic by the very end of this month. Given that the environmental conditions out across the Atlantic are pretty hostile for development, I do think that the GFS model may be going way too overboard with its forecast of 3 named storms going at the same time.

The European model’s forecast of just one storm that tracks from the eastern Tropical Atlantic next week & ends up curving northward out into the open Atlantic by the very start of September may end up being closer to reality.

For now, there is a chance that things might become a little more active in terms of tropical activity across the Atlantic in about a week from now. That being said, anything that does try to form may do so well away from both the United States and the Caribbean & because of this, there will be plenty of time to keep an eye on it.

One thing that I want to mention is that none of the model guidance show any sort of a threat to the US coastline, the Bahamas or the Caribbean & they all seem to point towards anything that forms would stay out in the open Atlantic.

No matter what happens, I will be keeping an eye on things closely & will have updates as needed.

Finally, I wanted to cover the activity in the Pacific for a minute as a disturbance, designated Invest 90-E by the National Hurricane Center, is organizing well to the east-southeast of the Hawaiian Islands. It looks very likely that this disturbance will organize and strengthen in the coming days and become a tropical storm towards the end of this week and this weekend.

The reason why I’m mentioning Invest 90-E is because the model guidance are pointing towards the possibility of this system tracking just south of the Big Island of Hawaii & possibly threatening the Big Island with some impacts by early next week. This will be something to keep an eye on as any sort of impact (rain or wind) would lead to problems across the Big Island as they are still recovering from the big floods caused by Lala.

Before I get into today’s tropical weather update, I wanted to extend my sincere thanks to Dale Sorensen and Dale Sorensen Real Estate for not only responding to our request for help, but for helping us out in a HUGE way. The help his company provided us is appreciated more than can be put in words. Should you be looking for real estate or selling your home on the Treasure or Space Coasts of Florida, go ahead and use Dale Sorensen Real Estate (website – https://sorensenrealestate.com).

Now, for the latest tropical weather update –

The Atlantic Basin is about as quiet as it can be for early August. Satellite imagery today showed a complete lack of convection across all of the Caribbean and much of the central and eastern Tropical Atlantic. The Gulf is also extremely quiet for this time of year with no significant convection of note.

The only convection found across the Atlantic is some thunderstorm activity occurring along the Southeastern coast of the United States. This thunderstorm activity is associated with a frontal system that is draped along the East Coast of the US.

Satellite imagery today also revealed that there is an area of very disorganized shower and thunderstorm activity located well to the northeast of the Lesser Antilles near about 25 North Latitude, 45 West Longitude. This very disorganized area of convection is heading towards the west & is expected to be in the vicinity of the northernmost Bahamas and the Southeast coast of the US by the end of this week.

While I do think that this area of convection does need to be watched as it heads westward this week, I think the chances for development are extremely low. The reason why is because this system is likely to lack much in the way of moisture & currently, there is very little in the way of low or mid-level spin with it.

As I already mentioned, I do think that this area of disturbed weather will reach the coast of the Southeastern United States by this weekend & it is likely that it will enhance the afternoon thunderstorm activity on Friday, Saturday and Sunday from the Florida Peninsula northward through coastal Georgia and the coastal Carolinas.

None of the model guidance now forecast development from this disturbance. This includes the Google Deep Mind ensemble guidance, which now forecasts less than a 5 percent chance of development & the European ensemble model guidance, which shows about a 10 percent chance of development. Again, I am not expecting to see any sort of development from this system.

The other area that I wanted to mention is the fact that some of the longer range model guidance are showing the slight possibility of some sort of tropical development over the far eastern Tropical Atlantic near the middle part of this month. That being said, the Google Deep Mind ensemble guidance is showing a 5 percent chance of development by mid-month & the European ensemble model guidance are forecasting about a 20 percent chance of tropical development around mid-month over the far eastern Tropical Atlantic.

My take on this is that while we might see some development try to occur over the far eastern Tropical Atlantic, its prospects of it surviving as it heads westward are very low. The reason why is because the amount of wind shear over the Caribbean and near the Lesser Antilles are expected to remain extremely high. Because of this, if any tropical system tries to head west towards the Caribbean, it’ll likely be torn apart & not be much of anything by the time it reaches the Lesser Antilles and the eastern Caribbean.

It’s something to watch, but it’s definitely nothing for us to worry about.

Things are quiet across the Atlantic, Caribbean and Gulf with no areas of interest today. It appears likely that no tropical development will occur across the Atlantic, Caribbean and Gulf throughout this week.

A look at the Atlantic reveals that the central and eastern Tropical Atlantic are unfavorable for any sort of tropical development due to outbreaks of Saharan dust. It is expected that these outbreaks of Saharan dust will persist for at least the next couple of week & this will prevent any sort of development from occurring across the central and eastern Tropical Atlantic through early August.

A look towards the western North Atlantic reveals that extremely strong wind shear is present across the Caribbean and the Gulf today. It is expected that this very strong wind shear will persist across the Caribbean for at least the next couple of weeks. In fact, longer range model guidance seems to suggest that this El Nino fueled strong wind shear may remain across the Caribbean as well as across the central Tropical Atlantic for the rest of this hurricane season. This means that the Caribbean and the central Tropical Atlantic could be all but shut down in terms of tropical activity for this hurricane season.

The sub-tropical Atlantic (the area north of 20 North Latitude) is also currently unfavorable for tropical development. This is due to high amounts of wind shear that’s present across much of the region. It’s possible that the environmental conditions may become more favorable for tropical development as we get into early and mid-August. That being said, the model guidance seems to suggest that all may remain quiet through early August, although a few of the ensemble model members hint at development off of the US East Coast during next week. Even if we do see tropical development occur off of the East Coast, it would likely to be guided out into the open Atlantic as a upper level trough of low pressure will be anchored over the eastern US during early August.

Bottom Line Is That there is nothing to be concerned about in terms of tropical development across the Atlantic, Caribbean and Gulf this week.

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Tropical Depression #2: Tropical Depression 2 seems to be becoming a bit better organized today. Satellite imagery and other weather data seems to suggest that there is an increased amount of banding near the center of circulation, which is also better defined. That being said, TD 2 is being affected by northeasterly wind shear of up to 20-30 knots and dry air – both of which may end up limiting the amount of strengthening this system is able to accomplish.

Given that there is more centralized convection and increased banding occurring with TD 2, I do think that it is extremely likely that this system will be upgraded to Tropical Storm Bertha as soon as later today or tonight.

A look at the latest ensemble model guidance from the GFS and European models reveals that they have shifted towards a more northerly track taking this system into the central Gulf Coast near the Mississippi Delta by about Wednesday night or Thursday.

Other guidance such as the European AIFS and the Google DeepMind ensemble model suggests that a slightly further south track is possible, which would lead to this system skirting the Louisiana coast by about Thursday and heading towards the upper Texas coast, weakening into a depression as it does so.

Here Are My Latest Thoughts: I do think that TD 2 will likely battle northeasterly wind shear and dry air throughout the rest of its journey. Because of this, rapid strengthening is highly unlikely & in fact, I think the idea of this system becoming a hurricane is now off of the table.

More likely is that TD 2 will probably become Tropical Storm Bertha as soon as later today or tonight & then strengthen a little more over the next couple of days. This means that I think that this system will probably peak at a moderately strong tropical storm as it tracks westward just offshore of the northern Gulf Coast by midweek.

As for the possible track of TD 2 – It appears that a high pressure ridge nosing southward from the central United States will cause this system to turn due west by late Tuesday or Wednesday. This could cause this system to either make landfall in the Mississippi Delta region by Wednesday night or ride along the coast of southern Louisiana from Wednesday night to Friday morning before it comes ashore along the upper Texas coast sometime later Friday. In both cases, this system will probably peak at a moderately strong tropical storm & very likely will not become a hurricane.

The main hazard from TD2/Bertha-To-Be likely will be locally heavy rainfall & dangerous rip currents along parts of the northern Gulf Coast this week. The locally heavy rain looks to mainly affect the Florida Panhandle today through Tuesday & then mainly affect southern and southeastern Louisiana during Wednesday and Thursday.

At this point, I am not expecting a widespread flood threat from TD 2/Bertha-to-be, but instead I think that some localized flooding is possible during Wednesday and Thursday across southern Louisiana and possibly across southeast Texas.

Any tropical storm force winds looks to be confined to southern and southeastern Louisiana during Wednesday and Thursday with wind gusts of up to 40-50 mph possible, especially along the immediate coast.

Forecast Impacts:
Wind:

Storm Surge:

Rainfall Amounts:

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