I wanted to take a moment to send out an update regarding the potential for tropical development around the Western Caribbean later this coming week or during next weekend.
Satellite imagery this evening reveals that a robust tropical wave is located over the east-central Caribbean to the south of Hispaniola. It is expected that this tropical wave will push westward throughout this week where it’ll find itself in a favorable environment for development starting during the second half of this coming week.
Today’s model guidance have become increasingly more aggressive in their forecasts of showing development of this tropical wave by the time it reaches the Western Caribbean.
One other item that the model guidance and especially the ensemble model guidance are beginning to show is the possibility of this system to not only become a robust tropical system by next weekend, but to also track from the western and northwestern Caribbean and towards Florida and the Bahamas during next week (week of November 18).
My Thinking Remains About The Same & That Is I think that there’s a fairly high chance we’ll see tropical development over the western half of the Caribbean between about Wednesday and Saturday of this coming week. Because of this, I urge those of you in Cuba, the Yucatan Peninsula, Belize, the Cayman Islands, Jamaica and Hispaniola to closely watch the developments of this system.
Additionally, those of you in the Bahamas and even the Florida Peninsula should also keep tabs on this tropical wave. Right now, I wouldn’t overly stress or worry about it, but I would keep an eye on it. The fact that both the European ensemble and GFS ensemble model guidance do show some threat to the Bahamas and the Florida Peninsula is something that should be watched.
I will send out a full discussion on this possible development sometime on Monday Afternoon.