Crown Weather
Discussions

Before I get into the expected tornado outbreak on Monday across the upper Midwest, I wanted to mention that severe weather is likely this afternoon into tonight across southern Oklahoma and north Texas. Slow moving strong to severe thunderstorms are expected across this area, especially right along the Red River. Damaging winds and a couple of tornadoes seems to be the main threat.

The severe weather threat looks to shift into the central Plains states on Sunday and more specifically across central and northwestern Nebraska, southern South Dakota and far northern Kansas. Main severe weather threat looks to be large hail and damaging winds.

Now, turning to Monday’s expected tornado outbreak across the upper Midwest – A strong upper level trough of low pressure will move into the northern Plains states during Monday. This weather system will interact with an unusually moist and unstable air mass for late April across the upper Midwest leading to the potential for a severe weather and tornado outbreak.

Intense, long-lived supercell severe thunderstorms are expected during Monday afternoon across the upper Midwest & looks to be centered across southeastern Minnesota, western Wisconsin and central and northeastern Iowa. These supercell storms will be capable of producing very large hail and strong to violent tornadoes. This tornado outbreak threat area includes Minneapolis-St. Paul, La Crosse and Des Moines.

Finally, turning briefly to the tropics – I am still planning on beginning to issue my regular tropical weather discussions on Thursday, May 1.

Some of the model guidance (GFS model) seems to be hinting at the possibility of some sort of tropical development to the northeast of the Lesser Antilles over the open central Atlantic during the first week of May.

Other model guidance (CFS model) are hinting at the possibility of some sort of low pressure system to affect Puerto Rico, the Virgin Islands and the Leeward Islands during the first week of May. While it doesn’t look tropical or sub-tropical, it could still bring some heavy rain and squally weather to Puerto Rico, the Virgin Islands and the Leeward Islands around May 6 and May 7.

Finally, the European AIFS model is hinting at the possibility of some sort of sub-tropical development near the Georgia and South Carolina coastline around US Southeast Coast around May 10.

One thing to note is that there is no consistency between the models on where tropical or sub-tropical development may be most possible during early May. Because of this, I am skeptical of all of the models & want to see more consistency before I start highlighting an area of concern.

That said, given the possibility that there could be some sort of development chances during early May, I am planning on starting to issue regular tropical weather discussions this coming Thursday, May 1. Should the tropical development chances increase before then, I will start to issue regular tropical weather discussions before Thursday.

The 2025 hurricane season forecast from Colorado State University was released this past Thursday and like our forecast, they are forecasting a somewhat above average season in terms of activity. CSU is forecasting 17 named storms, 9 of those storms becoming hurricanes and 4 of those hurricanes becoming major hurricanes. This is comparable to our forecast in which we released on March 20. In our forecast, we are forecasting 16 named storms, 7 of those storms becoming hurricanes and 4 of those hurricanes becoming major hurricanes.

There are a couple of reasons why we are expecting a busier than average hurricane season.

The First Reason Is The Likelihood Of ENSO-Neutral Conditions During This Summer Into This Fall: Weak La Nina conditions currently exist across the eastern Pacific and it seems rather likely that we will see neutral ENSO conditions during the peak of the Atlantic hurricane season forecast.

Neutral ENSO conditions is an enhancing influence on tropical activity during the hurricane season. This means that at least somewhat above average activity can be expected this hurricane season in terms of the number of tropical storms and hurricanes.

A Second Reason Are The Ocean Water Temperatures: Ocean water temperatures are currently warmer than average across the western and central Atlantic & is currently slightly below average over the eastern tropical Atlantic. Warmer than average ocean water temperatures are also currently occurring over the eastern subtropical Atlantic.

It should be noted that there is a positive correlation between above average ocean temperatures over the Caribbean and the eastern subtropical Atlantic during April and an active Atlantic hurricane season.

Analog Years: The analog years that Colorado State University used for their forecast are very close to what we used for analog years.

CSU went with the following analog years that seem to be a close match with what the 2025 hurricane season might be like – 1996, 1999, 2006, 2008, 2011 & 2017.

Our analog forecast here at Crown Weather used the following years for what the 2025 hurricane season may be like. They are 1895, 1916, 1959, 1967, 1996, 1999, 2008, 2011, 2017 & 2021.

Landfall Threat Forecast: There are no changes at all with my landfall threat forecast. In the map attached to this discussion, I have added my expectations of the most likely potential tracks of tropical systems this season.

There are still three areas that I’m most concerned about for this upcoming season in terms of a tropical storm or hurricane impact.

The First Area Is the area from the Carolinas northward to Southern New England. As I mentioned previously, all indications seem to be pointing towards this being an East Coast concentrated season for tropical storm or hurricane threats. Based on this, in addition to model guidance and analog data, I do think that a corridor from South Carolina and North Carolina northward to Southern New England could be an area to really watch.

The Second Area Of Particular Concern Is across the far northeastern Caribbean, including the far northern Leeward Islands, the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico.

Model guidance and analog data seems to be pointing towards the possibility of any tropical systems moving westward from the central and eastern tropical Atlantic to begin curving west-northwest and northwest just before they reach the Caribbean. This leads to the potential for these tropical systems to directly impact the northeastern Caribbean before they either head further west towards the Bahamas or the East Coast of the United States or curve northward into the open Atlantic.

Another Area Of Some Concern Is the area from the northwestern Caribbean northward to the central Gulf coast where any tropical disturbances moving westward may begin to strengthen by the time they reach the northwestern Caribbean and then head for the central Gulf Coast.

Even though your area may have a low or medium risk this season, be aware that any small fluctuations in the upper level weather pattern at the “wrong” time could threaten the low or medium risk areas.

Finally, I am pushing up the date of the start of regular tropical weather discussions for the 2025 Atlantic Hurricane Season. I now expect to begin issuing regular tropical weather discussions on Thursday, May 1.

The reason why is because there are some subtle signs in the very long model guidance that there could be some sort of tropical development sometime during early or mid-May. Very long model guidance has been somewhat consistent in showing this scenario & because of this, I am pushing up the start date of tropical weather discussions to May 1.

Summary: The greatest threat for severe thunderstorms that will produce tornadoes, large hail and damaging winds will be across northeast Texas, southeastern Oklahoma, northwestern Louisiana, much of Arkansas – except for far southeast & far northwest Arkansas, southeastern Missouri, northwestern Tennessee, western Kentucky, southern Illinois and southwestern Indiana this afternoon through this evening. Strong to violent tornadoes are definitely a possibility.

Details: A frontal boundary is expected to move northward this afternoon across Arkansas, western Tennessee and western Kentucky in response to a low pressure system riding along this front.

On the south side of this will lie a very humid air mass that will remain in place throughout this afternoon into this evening. This humid air mass combined with breaks in the clouds will lead to an unstable air mass from the ArkLaTex to the confluence of the Ohio & Mississippi Rivers.

Severe storms are likely to develop over the next couple of hours or so across northeast Texas, northwestern Louisiana, central and western Arkansas and southeastern Oklahoma. These storms will be supercellular in nature and will likely produce tornadoes, some of which will be strong to violent in nature, large to very large hail and damaging winds. These storms will continue across the area from the ArkLaTex northeastward to the confluence of the Ohio & Mississippi Rivers right into early tonight.

If I had to pick an area that I am particularly concerned about for strong to violent tornadoes, it would be across far southeastern Missouri, central, northern and northeastern Arkansas, extreme southeastern Oklahoma and northeastern Texas.

And as I finish writing this discussion, the first Tornado Watch of the day has been issued for southwestern, central and northern Arkansas, extreme northwestern Louisiana, extreme southeastern Oklahoma and northeast Texas. Additional tornado watches will very likely be issued over the next several hours.

Severe Weather: Significant severe weather will continue to occur across many of the same areas over the next couple of days.

For this afternoon into tonight – the area of highest concern in terms of severe weather will be across western and middle Tennessee, central and southern Arkansas and across the ArkLaTex. There is the likelihood of tornadoes, some of which will be strong, very large hail and damaging winds.

Turning to Friday, the Ozarks and the ArkLaTex region is in the area of highest concern for severe weather as another round of storms will bring the threat for tornadoes, some of which will be strong, very large hail and damaging winds.

As for Saturday, the area of greatest severe weather threat looks to be across far east Texas, northern and central Louisiana, southern Arkansas and western Mississippi. In this zone, the threat is there for a few tornadoes and damaging wind gusts.

Update On The Expected Catastrophic Flood Threat From The Lower Ohio Valley Through The Mid-South: Continued rounds of thunderstorms that will produce intense downpours are expected in an area from the lower Ohio Valley through the Mid-South. Repeated rounds of heavy rainfall over the same areas will lead to extreme flooding this afternoon through tonight from southwestern Kentucky into western Tennessee and northeastern Arkansas where the greatest threat for life taking and property destroying catastrophic flash flooding exists. Significant flooding is expected across a wider area this afternoon through tonight from the Lower Ohio Valley through the Mid-South.

Significant to extreme flooding looks to continue on Friday in an area that stretches from the middle Mississippi Valley southwestward through the ArkLaTex. Significant heavy rainfall totals and numerous areas of flash flooding is expected.

Saturday looks to be another really, really bad day in terms of the likelihood for catastrophic flooding across the lower Ohio Valley and the Mid-South.

It is likely that we are looking at a catastrophic and historic flash flood event with some areas seeing rainfall totals of 10 to 20 inches through this weekend. Rounds of heavy rain each day will ratchet up the risk for catastrophic river flooding from western Kentucky into northwestern Tennessee and widespread significant river flooding from the Ozarks and the ArkLaTex region through the lower Ohio Valley.

This means that many towns and cities, especially in southern Illinois, southern Indiana, southwestern Ohio, northern and western Kentucky, southern and southeastern Missouri, central and northern Arkansas and western Tennessee will see extreme rainfall amounts and extremely catastrophic flooding & because of this, you need to prepare now for a generational catastrophic flooding event.

Summary: A tornado outbreak is expected to occur this afternoon through this evening across parts of the lower Mississippi Valley into the Mid-South and the lower Ohio Valley. Numerous tornadoes, along with multiple strong to violent tornadoes are likely. In addition to the tornado threat, significant damaging wind damage and large hail will also be a threat across this region.

Details: A strengthening low pressure system is expected to track from Iowa to Lake Superior this afternoon through tonight.

Severe thunderstorms are now occurring in a line from west-central Illinois through central and southern Missouri into northwestern Arkansas and southeastern Oklahoma. To the east and southeast of this line of storms lies a warm and humid air mass from Illinois and Missouri to the ArkLaTex. This humid air will continue to push northward throughout this afternoon probably as far north as central Illinois, central Indiana, northern Ohio and lower Michigan.

The line of thunderstorms that push eastward will be a mix of bands of storms and supercells throughout this afternoon. Additionally, I expect to see a few supercells to form just out ahead of the main line of storms this afternoon. The tornado threat is likely to be maximized with the more individual supercells that form within the band of storms or just out ahead of the main line of storms & a few strong to violent tornadoes are definitely possible. The area I am most concerned about in terms of tornado threat is across southern Illinois, southern Indiana, southeastern Missouri, eastern Arkansas, western Tennessee, northern Missouri and northern Louisiana.

Elsewhere that line of thunderstorms will become a squall line that will likely produce wind gusts of up to 60-80 mph and large hail across a large area of the lower Mississippi Valley, the Mid-South and the lower Ohio Valley this afternoon through this evening.

If That Wasn’t Enough, Catastrophic, Life Taking & Property Destroying Flooding Is Expected From The Lower Ohio Valley Through The Mid-South & The ArkLaTex – A stationary frontal system is going to sit over the lower Ohio Valley and the middle Mississippi Valley over the next few days. This will lead to repeating rounds of thunderstorms to occur over the same regions. In addition, a plentiful supply of Gulf moisture will help to produce intense downpour producing storms.

The area of most concern for flooding this afternoon through tonight will be from the lower Ohio Valley southwestward into the Mid-South where several inches of rainfall is expected leading to the likelihood of numerous areas that will see flash flooding.

Things look to become even more dire during Thursday and Thursday night as there appears to be an even greater risk for significant heavy rainfall totals with more than 6 inches of rainfall probable in some areas. The area of most concern for flooding is from the lower Ohio Valley and Mid-South regions to the ArkLaTex. An area including western Kentucky, the Missouri Bootheel, northwestern Tennessee and northeastern Arkansas is likely to see widespread, catastrophic flooding during Thursday and Thursday night. This includes Paducah, Cape Girardeau, Poplar Bluff and Jonesboro.

That stationary front is very likely will remain stalled through not only Friday but into this weekend. This means that historic amounts of rainfall can be expected across many areas across the lower Ohio Valley, the Mid-South and the ArkLaTex. Upwards of 10 to 15 inches or more of rainfall can be expected through this weekend. This means that many towns and cities, especially in southern Illinois, southern Indiana, western Kentucky, southeastern Missouri, northern and northeastern Arkansas and western Tennessee will see extreme rainfall amounts and extremely catastrophic flooding & because of this, you need to prepare now for a generational catastrophic flooding event.

It is going to be an active several days of severe weather across the central, southern and eastern parts of the United States. Out of the next few days, I am very concerned that we are going to have a severe weather outbreak Wednesday afternoon into Wednesday night across the Ohio Valley and across the middle and lower Mississippi Valley.

Here Is A Quick Glance Map Of The Severe Weather Threat For This Coming Week:

More Details:

For The Rest Of This Afternoon Into Tonight: Strong to severe thunderstorms are already occurring from far lower parts of Michigan through Indiana, southern Illinois and far southeastern Missouri.

It is expected that additional severe thunderstorm development will occur across northeastern Texas, far southeastern Oklahoma and western and northern Arkansas over the next few hours. Supercells are likely to occur through early this evening across southern and southeastern Missouri, much of Arkansas and northern Louisiana. These severe storms will then push into western and middle Tennessee, northern and central Mississippi and northern Alabama during the overnight hours of tonight. Very large hail, damaging wind gusts and tornadoes will all be a threat.

Further north, a line of strong to severe thunderstorms will produce damaging winds throughout the rest of this afternoon through this evening across southern Illinois, much of Indiana and western and central Kentucky. A threat for tornadoes and hail will also be possible across this region as well.

For Monday: The severe weather threat is expected to shift to parts of the East Coast with the highest severe weather threat expected across southern Alabama, much of Georgia, much of South Carolina, much of North Carolina and southern Virginia.

The combination of plenty of low-level moisture and strong amounts of deep layer shear will maintain an organized cluster of severe storms to push from southern Alabama through much of Georgia during the morning into the afternoon and through South Carolina during the afternoon on Monday. These storms will pose a threat for widespread damaging winds and tornadoes.

Across North Carolina and southern Virginia, strong to severe storms are expected to develop and push eastward across this region during Monday afternoon. Main threat with these storms will be damaging winds.

For Tuesday: It looks like the central and southern Plains will be the area to watch for severe weather during Tuesday afternoon into Tuesday night.

A strong low pressure system is expected to push eastward across the central Plains states during the day on Tuesday and then head for the upper Midwest during Tuesday night. Plenty of low-level moisture will be pulled northward through the southern and central Plains thanks to a strong low-level jet stream. This low-level moisture will combine with an unstable air along and east of a dryline that should set up across the central and southern Plains states.

Some supercell severe thunderstorms may develop across parts of the central and southern Plains states by early Tuesday evening. Any of these supercells will have the potential to produce damaging winds and very large hail. A tornado or two cannot be ruled out either.

Additional strong to severe thunderstorms are expected to develop along an eastward moving cold front during late Tuesday night into early Wednesday morning across the eastern parts of the central and southern Plains states and across the Ozarks. Large hail and damaging winds may end up being the main risk with these storms, but a tornado or two cannot be ruled out.

A Severe Weather Outbreak Is Possible Wednesday Into Wednesday Night Across The Ohio Valley, The Middle Mississippi Valley & The Lower Mississippi Valley: A widespread and potentially very significant outbreak of severe weather looks quite possible during Wednesday into Wednesday night across the Ohio Valley, the middle Mississippi Valley and the lower Mississippi Valley. This outbreak of severe weather may stretch as far south as eastern Oklahoma and northeast Texas.

Thunderstorms are likely to be occurring during Wednesday morning across an area that stretches from eastern Iowa and Illinois southwestward through Missouri, eastern Oklahoma and northeast Texas.

As the day progresses on Wednesday, there is the potential for these storms to be more isolated in nature rather than one long line of severe thunderstorms. This is actually bad news as multiple isolated supercell thunderstorms over a large area from the Ohio Valley through the middle and lower Mississippi Valley could lead to a rather substantial strong to violent tornado threat. In addition, very large hail and a very significant damaging wind threat is also likely.

If I had to pick an area that I’m most concerned about in terms of a strong to violent tornado threat, it would be across southern Illinois, southern Indiana, western Kentucky, western Tennessee, southeastern Missouri, much of Arkansas and northern Mississippi during Wednesday afternoon into Wednesday evening.

On Thursday: A east-northeast to west-southwest oriented frontal boundary will be positioned across the Ohio Valley and the middle Mississippi Valley.

Severe storms with a threat for damaging winds, hail and tornadoes look to be a threat across southern Missouri, much of Arkansas, northern Louisiana, much of Kentucky, much of Tennessee and northern parts of Mississippi and Alabama. The area that looks to be of most concern looks to be from about Nashville and Memphis to Little Rock and Texarkana.

I will certainly have many more updates over the next few days as the severe weather threat evolves.

A cold front is expected to push eastward across the Ohio Valley, the Missouri Valley and the Mississippi Valley during Sunday. Ahead of this front, the atmosphere is expected to be fairly unstable and should lead to the potential for severe weather across a large area that stretches from the Ohio Valley southward to parts of Arkansas and Mississippi during Sunday afternoon into Sunday night.

The severe weather threat may actually first occur across Missouri and Illinois from late Sunday morning into Sunday afternoon. This severe weather looks to be rather substantial from eastern Missouri into Illinois during Sunday afternoon with the likelihood of supercells occurring leading to a very large hail threat. In addition, damaging wind gusts and tornadoes, some of which will be strong will also be a threat.

Further south, severe weather looks to develop across Arkansas by late Sunday afternoon and early Sunday evening and then push eastward into southeastern Missouri, western Kentucky, western Tennessee and northern Mississippi during the nighttime hours of Sunday night. These storms are expected to be in an environment that’s favorable for tornadoes, some of which will be strong to violent, damaging wind gusts and very large hail.

The area that I have most concern about for all types of severe weather, including tornadoes, damaging wind gusts and very large hail is across far southeastern Missouri, northeastern Arkansas, western Tennessee and northwestern Missouri – centered right around the Memphis area during late Sunday afternoon through Sunday evening.

Turning To Next Week – The weather pattern is likely to be quite active in terms of severe weather during next week. In particular, Wednesday of next week is of concern in terms of a severe weather threat across western and central Kentucky, much of Tennessee, northern and central Mississippi and northern Alabama. A strong upper level weather disturbance is expected to move across the Midwestern United States during Wednesday and has the potential to produce a rather significant severe weather event across this part of the country.

Summary: This upcoming hurricane season looks to average a little above average in terms of the number of storms that occur. All indications seem to point towards neutral ENSO conditions occurring during the peak of the hurricane season. This combined with above average ocean temperatures in the Gulf and across the subtropics should help to produce an above average hurricane season. One factor that might negate a really active hurricane season is that the subtropics may end up more above average than the deep tropics leading to more stable air to occur. This, in turn, would lead to tropical systems having a more difficult time developing and waiting to develop until they are out of the deep tropics.

Additionally, I do think that this could be an East Coast season where most of the tropical storm and hurricane threats are concentrated along the East Coast of the United States. Two other areas stand out as potential areas of risk in terms of tropical storm/hurricane threats – One is the central Gulf Coast and the second is across the northeastern Caribbean.

The Numbers: 16 Named Storms, 7 of those storms becoming Hurricanes and 4 of those hurricanes becoming Major Hurricanes (Category 3 or higher on the Saffir-Simpson scale).

Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE) Index Forecast: I am forecasting an ACE index this year of 140, which signals that this will probably be an above average season.

ENSO Conditions: All data is pointing towards neutral ENSO conditions by the time we reach June, July and August. These neutral ENSO conditions are forecast to remain in place right through this Fall.

The prospects of neutral ENSO conditions is an enhancing influence on tropical activity during the hurricane season. This means that at least somewhat above average activity can be expected this hurricane season in terms of the number of tropical storms and hurricanes.

Sea Surface Temperatures: Areas from the central and western Gulf through the Caribbean are currently warmer than average with below average ocean temperatures found across the central and eastern Tropical Atlantic. This overall look in ocean temperatures is cooler than what we saw at this time last year.

The latest model guidance seems to be pointing towards a scenario where areas of the Atlantic north of 20 North Latitude are warmer than average as compared to the deep tropics throughout this hurricane season. This could set up a scenario where tropical systems wait to really get going until they are north of 20 North Latitude or wait until they reach the Gulf.

Analog Years: These are the analog years that seem to be a close match right now to what the 2025 hurricane season may be like. They are 1895, 1916, 1959, 1967, 1996, 1999, 2008, 2011, 2017 & 2021.

This is our “hot spot” map which shows which areas were impacted the most during the 10 analog years I have listed:

Landfall Threat Forecast: There are three areas that I’m most concerned about for this upcoming season in terms of a tropical storm or hurricane impact.

The First Area Is the area from the Carolinas northward to Southern New England. As I mentioned previously, all indications seem to be pointing towards this being an East Coast concentrated season for tropical storm or hurricane threats. Based on this, in addition to model guidance and analog data, I do think that a corridor from South Carolina and North Carolina northward to Southern New England could be an area to really watch.

The Second Area Of Particular Concern Is across the far northeastern Caribbean, including the far northern Leeward Islands, the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico.

Model guidance and analog data seems to be pointing towards the possibility of any tropical systems moving westward from the central and eastern tropical Atlantic to begin curving west-northwest and northwest just before they reach the Caribbean. This leads to the potential for these tropical systems to directly impact the northeastern Caribbean before they either head further west towards the Bahamas or the East Coast of the United States or curve northward into the open Atlantic.

Another Area Of Some Concern Is the area from the northwestern Caribbean northward to the central Gulf coast where any tropical disturbances moving westward may begin to strengthen by the time they reach the northwestern Caribbean and then head for the central Gulf Coast.

Even though your area may have a low or medium risk this season, be aware that any small fluctuations in the upper level weather pattern at the “wrong” time could threaten the low or medium risk areas.

Finally, we will begin sending out regular tropical weather discussions for the 2025 Atlantic Hurricane Season on Monday, May 12th.

2025 Atlantic Tropical Cyclone Names:
Andrea
Barry
Chantal
Dexter
Erin
Fernand
Gabrielle
Humberto
Imelda
Jerry
Karen
Lorenzo
Melissa
Nestor
Olga
Pablo
Rebekah
Sebastien
Tanya
Van
Wendy

The multi-day severe weather outbreak that occurred from Friday afternoon until late last night across the central and southern United States definitely was as bad as expected.

At the time of this writing, a total of 76 tornadoes occurred during the 2 day event, making it a memorable severe weather event. Additionally, at least 36 people have died in the storms with a majority of them occurring in tornadoes.

Friday afternoon and Friday night’s severe weather event saw hundreds of damaging wind reports throughout the Midwestern United States thanks to that eastward moving squall line. At the same time this was occurring, a total of 39 tornadoes touched down from northern Mississippi and Arkansas northward into Missouri, Illinois and Indiana. While we are still waiting on storm surveys from the National Weather Service, it is highly likely that several of the tornadoes on Friday afternoon and Friday night were of EF-2 or stronger in intensity.

Friday Afternoon & Friday Night’s Severe Weather Reports:

While Saturday’s severe weather wasn’t as prolific as what we saw on Friday, the intensity of the tornadoes that did occur on Saturday and Saturday night certainly made up for it. At the time of this writing, a total of 37 tornadoes touched down on Saturday and Saturday night mostly across Alabama and Mississippi. How many of these tornadoes were strong or violent remains to be seen as we wait on storm surveys from the National Weather Service.

Saturday & Saturday Night’s Severe Weather Reports:

Fortunately, this upcoming week looks very quiet in terms of severe weather across much of the United States.

Saturday 11:45 am CDT Weather Update From Crown Weather:
A Potentially Dangerous Tornado Watch was just issued for a large part of Mississippi into far eastern parts of Louisiana. Also, it is expected that another Potentially Dangerous Tornado Watch will be issued for all of Alabama very, very shortly. Additionally, a tornado over the last hour or so has damaged homes and brought down power lines near Grace, Mississippi.

Tornado Watch For Mississippi:

Information On The Expected Potentially Dangerous Tornado Watch For Alabama:

This all means that the tornado outbreak is now beginning & unfortunately, everything is now on track for a very serious tornado outbreak to occur across Mississippi and Alabama over the next 8 to 12 hours or so.

Severe storm cells over southwestern Mississippi and eastern Louisiana in the McComb to Baton Rouge vicinity are the ones to really watch as they push into a better environment for tornado production as they move northeastward.

Weather balloon soundings from New Orleans indicate that while this capping over Louisiana that is limiting the storm’s ability to really explode, the environment over eastern Mississippi and all of Alabama is extremely favorable for these storms to be tornado producers when they get there.

This means that numerous strong to violent tornadoes are expected across Mississippi and especially over eastern Mississippi throughout this afternoon and continue into this evening. These storms that will be producing strong to violent tornadoes will then affect much of Alabama beginning later this afternoon and continue through the first half of tonight. Western parts of the Florida Panhandle and western and central Georgia will then be impacted by storms producing tornadoes tonight.

If you are anywhere in Mississippi, Alabama, western and central Georgia or the western Florida Panhandle, I urge you to keep extremely close tabs on the severe weather this afternoon and tonight. This outbreak is nothing to mess with and is going to be extremely bad. Have multiple ways to receive weather warnings, including NOAA Weather Radio and having wireless emergency alerts enabled on your phone. Make sure you know where you are sheltering if a tornado is about to hit you.