Crown Weather
Discussions

It appears that we will probably see tropical development this weekend way out over the eastern North Atlantic to the southwest of Azores. Satellite imagery and weather data revealed that a well-defined low pressure system has formed near 33 North Latitude, 34 West Longitude.

The shower and thunderstorm activity associated with the low pressure system are fairly well organized and I do think that we’ll probably see this low pressure system become a tropical depression and probably even a tropical storm during this weekend.

Even though we will have tropical development occur this weekend, this system is expected to pose no threat to any land areas.

In terms of a potential track, a majority of the model guidance show this low pressure system tracking towards the southwest and then west across the eastern North Atlantic throughout this weekend and into next week. It’s forward motion looks to be rather slow & because of this, it will remain over the open North Atlantic with no threats to land.

Elsewhere Across The Atlantic, Caribbean & Gulf: No tropical development is expected during this weekend across the rest of the Atlantic, Caribbean and Gulf.

The area of low pressure that is located over the central North Atlantic to the east of Bermuda has weakened substantially & because of this, tropical development is not expected from it.

Turning to next week, model guidance seems to be pointing towards the potential for a coastal storm system to develop near the coastal Carolinas near the middle part of next week. This coastal storm could bring locally heavy rain & gusty onshore winds from the Mid-Atlantic states southward through the coastal Carolinas between Tuesday and Friday of next week. It is then possible that this coastal storm could track northeastward into parts of New England bringing gusty onshore winds and locally heavy rain to central and southern New England next weekend.

While next week’s coastal storm likely will be non-tropical, it may still need to be watched closely for signs of transformation into a sub-tropical storm. The reason why I say this is because this storm system is expected to travel over the very warm waters of the Gulf Stream & this could give it enough of a boost for it to transform into a sub-tropical system. It should be noted that the European ensemble model guidance does show a 30 percent chance of this storm becoming a tropical system just offshore of the North Carolina coast around the middle part of next week. Something to watch for next week.

We have decided to run a LIFETIME subscription special that’ll go from now through this weekend & end on Monday night, September 21.

From now until 11:59 pm Eastern Time on Monday night, September 21st, you can go ahead and convert your current subscription to a lifetime subscription at half the normal cost. This is ideal for those of you that have been using our products for years now as you will never have to renew again!!

Our special price for a lifetime subscription to Crown Weather PLUS is $300 (normal price is $600). For the price of a 3 year subscription, you can be ensured that you will be subscribed indefinitely.

---

Get A LIFETIME Subscription Special At Half The Nornmal Cost:

Pay $300 Using A Credit Card:

Pay $300 Using PayPal:

---

First up today, I continue to keep close tabs on an area of low pressure that’s located over the central North Atlantic about 450 miles to the east of Bermuda. Satellite imagery indicates that the shower and thunderstorm activity associated with this low pressure system is quite disorganized. Because of this, it is likely that it will take some time for this low pressure system to become a tropical system, if it ever does.

A look at the latest model guidance reveals that guidance such as the Google Deep Mind model and the European AIFS model insists that there is, at least, a chance for this system to develop by this weekend. Most of the ensemble members do show a track that would keep this system out in the open Atlantic just east of Bermuda. It should be noted that the Google Deep Mind model does show a 45 percent chance for tropical development by this weekend.

Meanwhile, the traditional models such as the GFS model and the European model forecast no development at all from this low pressure system. In fact, the European ensemble model guidance only gives this system a 10 percent chance of developing into a tropical system over the next few days.

While I continue to lean more towards the idea that we might see this system try to develop this weekend, it’s not a sure thing at all. Because of this, it’s equally as possible that we see no development at all.

Finally, even if we do see tropical development over the central North Atlantic to the east and southeast of Bermuda, it will pose no threat to the United States or the Caribbean. We might have to watch this system’s proximity to Bermuda as it could pose some threat to the island towards the middle part of next week.

Late September & Early October Tropical Development Is Possible In The Gulf: There continues to be signs that the Gulf might be an area to really watch for possible tropical development during the late September and early October time frame.

The catalyst for this possible tropical development looks to be the Central American Gyre or CAG, which is a large area of spin and storminess. This CAG may develop by the end of this month in the area from the eastern Pacific through Central America and into the western Caribbean and the southern Gulf.

This CAG could help to spin up a tropical system in either the eastern Pacific or in the Gulf and western Caribbean by late September into early October. It is definitely something to keep an eye on going forward.

A look at the model guidance for the end of the month reveals that many of the guidance members do show hints of tropical development to occur in the Gulf.

The Google Deep Mind ensemble model does show the southern Gulf getting active with increasing development chances as soon as late next week. It then shows things remaining active in terms of tropical development chances right through the week of September 28. That said, the model only puts the chances of tropical development at between 10 and 20 percent, so not high odds right now.

Meanwhile, the traditional models such as the European model seems to suggest that the Gulf tropical development could occur from a system crossing over from the eastern Pacific during the final weekend of September.

Digging a little further into the data reveals that the weather pattern during the period between September 23 and September 30 could feature a big upper level high pressure system over southern Canada and into the Great Lakes. This pattern could lead to lowering barometric pressures and storminess to occur over the Gulf & thus, I think tropical development in the Gulf is at least somewhat possible between about September 25 and October 5.

For now, the idea of tropical development in the Gulf is just something to keep an eye on, but is nothing to be overly concerned or worried about.

It appears that there may be some sort of tropical development that might occur later this week over the North Atlantic to the east of Bermuda. Satellite imagery today revealed that there is a low pressure system that is producing disorganized convection located about 1000 miles to the east of Bermuda near about 29 North Latitude, 52 West Longitude. A look at the environmental conditions around this low pressure system shows that conditions are unfavorable for development due to strong northwesterly wind shear.

It is anticipated that this low pressure system will head towards the west-northwest over the central North Atlantic & may travel into a more favorable environment for development as we head towards the later parts of this week. Should this occur, then we may see this system try to develop into a tropical system later this week.

That being said, it’s probably going to take some time for this system to acquire tropical characteristics. For one, the environmental conditions will not become favorable for development until late this week and this weekend. Second, when the environmental conditions do become favorable, it’ll take at least a couple of days for the low pressure system to transition from a non-tropical system into a tropical system.

Model guidance such as the Google Deep Mind model and the European AIFS model both show development from this low pressure system. Meanwhile the regular models, such as the GFS model and the European model show no development at all from this system. Given how good the Google Deep Mind and the European AIFS model have been in picking out tropical development, I’m leaning more towards the idea that we may see a tropical system form to the east of Bermuda sometime between Thursday and Saturday.

Even if we do see tropical development over the central North Atlantic, it will pose no threat to the United States or the Caribbean. We might have to watch this system’s proximity to Bermuda as it could pose some threat to the island early next week.

Elsewhere Across The Atlantic, Caribbean & Gulf: The rest of the Atlantic Basin is quiet today with no other areas of interest. It appears that tropical development is not expected across the remaining parts of the Atlantic Basin throughout this week through the weekend.

Beyond this, there is the possibility that there could be some tropical mischief near either the Bahamas or in the Gulf by about the second half of next week (after September 23). This possible tropical mischief could occur due to a piece of energy near the tail end of a front being left behind & then getting trapped underneath a high pressure ridge. Model guidance such as the Google Deep Mind model and the European AIFS model do show this potential, but only show the chances of it occurring at about 10 percent or so. For now, this is just something to keep an eye on, just in case.

All is quiet across the Atlantic, Caribbean and Gulf with no areas of interest today. Indications seem to point towards a very quiet weekend across the tropics with no tropical development expected. In fact, no tropical development is highly likely through next week across the Gulf, the Caribbean and the tropical Atlantic.

One area that might need to be watched for possible tropical development late next week is across the central North Atlantic well east of Bermuda where model guidance such as the Google Deep Mind and European AIFS models are showing possible development. Right now, these model guidance members are forecasting the chances for development at about 20 to 30 percent or so late next week in the area of the North Atlantic that’s well to the east of Bermuda. If we do see something form in this area of the Atlantic then it would be of no threat to any land areas.

Looking way ahead in time, it’s possible that we might have to watch the Gulf for the possibility of tropical development between about September 25 and October 5. The very long range European model guidance is forecasting a weather pattern that might promote tropical mischief in the Gulf during this time period. It is also showing upwards of a 10-20 percent chance of tropical development during this time period. Not very high in terms of development chances, but it is showing this might be an area to watch. It should also be noted that the CFS model is also showing a weather pattern that could promote tropical mischief in the Gulf during the same time period as the European model. For now, I certainly wouldn’t worry or stress about this, but instead keep an eye on things, just in case.

Finally, I know some of you have seen the longer range GFS model & it’s forecasts of a big hurricane in the Gulf in about 10-14 days from now. These GFS model forecasts have translated into click-bait posts on social media. I’m here to inform you to ignore both the GFS model’s big hurricane forecasts & those click-bait social media posts. The GFS model is notorious for spitting out “phantom” storms. It does the same thing every single year in showing big hurricanes that never come to pass. What should you do instead, keep up-to-date with me & my email posts. Also, if other models such as the European model or even the Google Deep Mind model start showing something similar, then we might have to start looking at it closely. Until then, ignore all big hurricane forecasts from the GFS model & also ignore the social media hype posts.

All is quiet across the Atlantic, Caribbean and Gulf with no areas of interest today. Indications seem to point towards a very quiet week across the tropics with no tropical development expected. In fact, no tropical development is highly likely through this weekend & possibly into much of next week across the Atlantic, Caribbean and Gulf.

An analysis of the environmental conditions across the Atlantic Basin reveals why things remain so very quiet. A very dry and stable airmass exists across the Caribbean, as well as across the tropical Atlantic. This has led to any westward tropical waves to dry up before they even get a chance to start getting going.

Looking towards the Gulf and the southwestern North Atlantic, the wind shear values are low enough to support development in this region. Even with this being a thing, there are no areas of disturbed weather that will be taking advantage of these favorable conditions for at least the next several days, if not longer.

Given everything that I’ve looked at, it appears very likely that we will not see any sort of tropical development across the Atlantic Basin for at least the next week or so. Looking a bit further out, some of the model guidance are hinting at the possibility of some eastern Tropical Atlantic development towards late next week. Even if we do see tropical development out over the eastern Tropical Atlantic, the wall of very strong wind shear out over the central Tropical Atlantic will squash any development before it reaches the Lesser Antilles.

Closer to home, none of the model guidance seems to show development over the Gulf or the western Atlantic through the middle part of this month. Even with this, I’ll still keep a look out, just in case we see any unforeseen in-close tropical development. For now though, there’s zero indication that we will see in-close tropical development for at least the next week.

Looking even further out in time, it’s possible that we could see some tropical mischief in the Gulf towards the end of this month. Model guidance seems to be hinting that the Gulf may try to spit out a tropical system near the end of this month. The European ensemble guidance are showing up to a 20 percent chance of tropical development in the Gulf right near the end of this month. This is a long ways out there in time, but it may be something to keep in mind for the end of this month for those with interests in the Gulf.

All is quiet across the Atlantic, Caribbean and Gulf with no areas of interest today. It appears that there will be no tropical development throughout this weekend across the Atlantic Basin & in fact, no tropical development is likely right through next week.

A look at the longer range model guidance reveals that none of them are showing any sort of significant tropical development through mid-month.

Since things are so quiet, my wife, Meg, wanted me to send out a write up that addresses the extreme hype surrounding the very strong El Nino conditions without any context or explanation. Instead, I want to give you a non-hype and down to earth explanation of what to expect this winter.

What Is El Nino? El Nino is a global phenomenon that’s centered in the central and eastern Pacific when the ocean water temperatures become much warmer than average. This phenomenon oftentimes leads to a large disruption to the weather patterns across the globe.

The El Nino that we are currently having is one of, if not the strongest, on record. El Nino conditions usually peak in the late fall and winter months. I want to point out that the previous strongest El Ninos on record were in 1997 and 1982 & I do think that we will surpass both of those El Nino in terms of the amount of heat that’ll be present in the eastern and central Pacific.

Unlike what you may have seen on social media, this El Nino is not going to lead to the destruction of the United States or be the catalyst for the end of the world. It is going to be a very strong El Nino, that will have some large impacts on the weather this winter across the United States.

What About This Upcoming Winter? El Nino winters, especially those winters with strong El Nino conditions, can be particularly harsh for areas across the southern United States and the Florida Peninsula. This is due to the development of a particularly strong sub-tropical jet stream that often leads to a very active storm track that is centered over the southern United States.

Florida Peninsula: An active southern storm track this winter is likely to lead to frequent bouts of significant severe weather, heavy rain and flooding across the Florida Peninsula.

I am pretty concerned that January and February could be particularly stormy across the Florida Peninsula, in terms of both heavy rain & significant severe weather. Some past El Nino winters have produced some significant tornado events across parts of the Peninsula & this is something that’ll need to be watched very closely.

Bottom line is that El Nino winters are wet, cool and very stormy across the Florida Peninsula. This means that this winter may be anything but sunny across the Sunshine State.

Southern & Southeastern United States: Across the southern and southeastern United States, El Nino winters are very often stormy with a pattern that promotes not only heavy rainfall & the threat for flooding, but also some winter weather. This means that ice and snow risks could be a concern this winter at times across the Carolinas, as well as across the Tennessee Valley. It’s actually possible that there could be a winter weather threat as far south as the northern Gulf coast at some point in January or February.

Further west, above average rainfall and below average temperatures likely will extend westward to about the Texas Gulf coast, while a large majority of the rest of Texas should be closer to average for rainfall this winter.

One thing that many El Nino winters bring is the threat for winter weather across the Texas Panhandle into parts of far north Texas & I do think that we could see some winter weather threats during January and February across the Texas Panhandle and across far north Texas.

Mid-Atlantic States & The Northeastern US: I do think that this could be winter where precipitation amounts are above to possibly well-above average across much of the Mid-Atlantic and northeastern United States. I do want to emphasize that this does not necessarily mean that it’s going to be a snowy winter across this region. In fact, the further north one goes in New England, the less snowy as compared to average it could be.

All-in-all, I think this winter will be above average in terms of temperatures across the northeastern US & across the Mid-Atlantic States. In addition, an active storm track is expected to curve up the East Coast & likely will lead to quite a bit in the way of storminess.

The big bug-a-boo in the forecast for this winter is how much of this storminess will be in the form of snow. Seasonal snow forecasts are always extremely uncertain & these types of forecasts should always be taken with a pound of salt. The reason why is because typically it only takes one or two storms in a winter to make or break a winter in terms of snow.

Given that we are probably going to see a winter where the temperatures will be above average, it’s going to take a “perfect” storm setup to create above average snow amounts for both the Mid-Atlantic States and the Northeastern United States. Because of this, I’m leaning more towards widespread below average snow amounts this winter across both the Mid-Atlantic States and across the northeastern United States.

What I’m more concerned with this winter is the possibility of one or two significant ice storms across New England and New York State. Many past El Nino winters have produced some very notable and destructive ice storms across this region & this is something that’ll need to be watched during the months of January and February.

All-in-all, while this very strong El Nino WILL NOT bring upon a disaster of biblical proportions (wait for the Ghostbusters quote), “Fire & brimstone from the skies, rivers and seas boiling, forty years of darkness, earthquakes and volcanoes, the dead rising from the grave, human sacrifice, dogs and cats living together—MASS HYSTERIA!”, it will help to produce a winter that’s anything but quiet across the southern United States, the Florida Peninsula & across the eastern United States.

Edouard made landfall yesterday afternoon (Tuesday) at around 2:20 pm CDT as a 60 mph tropical storm right along the Texas-Louisiana border. Even though Edouard was a 60 mph tropical storm, it did produce some feisty wind gusts right across Sabine Pass with 60-70 mph wind gusts common. In fact, a 90 mph wind gust was recorded in Port Arthur when Edouard made landfall yesterday afternoon.

Edouard is now inland over east Texas with its center now located to the northwest of Lufkin. Heavy rain with significant amounts of flooding is currently occurring across east Texas with widespread rain totals of 4 to 8 inches already occurring from the upper Texas coast east of Houston northward into east Texas. Upwards of 20 inches of rain may have occurred already along a narrow area from parts of central Hardin County into south-central Tyler County.

Additional heavy rain with even more significant flooding is expected from this afternoon through tonight and into Thursday across the Big Thicket and Piney Woods regions of southeast Texas. Heavy rain is also expected across much of east-central Texas to the southeast of Dallas-Fort Worth from this afternoon through tonight and into Thursday. Additional rain totals of 4 to 8 inches can be expected across east-central Texas.

It should be noted that the high-resolution model guidance are forecasting that intense thunderstorm cells will train over the same locations this afternoon and tonight across much of east-central Texas in the area between I-10 east of Houston & just north of Beaumont and almost to I-20 just southeast of Tyler. Significant flooding is extremely likely across this corridor of east-central Texas.

Finally, even though Edouard has weakened into a tropical depression, it has still maintained a well-defined circulation over east Texas. What’s left of this circulation is likely to gradually wind down by the time we get into Thursday as it moves into northeast Texas and southeast Oklahoma.

Elsewhere: The rest of the Atlantic, Caribbean and Gulf are very quiet, especially where we are now into what’s traditionally known as the peak of the hurricane season. All-in-all, it appears that no tropical development will occur across the Atlantic and Caribbean throughout the rest of this week through this weekend & probably into next week.

One area that I did want to mention is the very slight possibility that we could see tropical mischief over the far northern Gulf this weekend or early next week. Weather analysis reveals that there is a surface trough of low pressure that’s located over the northern Bahamas right now. This surface trough of low pressure is producing some deep convection in the area from the northern Bahamas to just northeast of the northern Bahamas.

It is expected that this trough of low pressure will head westward over the next couple of days & is likely to push into the northern Gulf during this weekend. The environmental conditions across the northern Gulf are expected to be marginally favorable for development & because of this, we might have to watch this system for possible tropical mischief throughout this upcoming Labor Day weekend.

A look at the latest model guidance reveals that they really don’t show much in the way of tropical development during this weekend into early next week. The reason for this seems to have to do with the possibility of this low pressure trough staying on land as it heads westward across the northern Gulf coast. The exception to this is the UKMET model which has hinted at development occurring very near the coasts of Alabama, Mississippi and southeast Louisiana as early as Friday or Saturday. Also, the European ensemble model guidance is showing up to 30 percent chance for tropical development from the eastern to the northern Gulf between Friday and Sunday.

At this point, while this trough of low pressure is certainly something to keep an eye on for possible tropical mischief between Friday and Monday over the northern Gulf, I think that the chances for significant development are very low.

What this trough of low pressure will more likely do is increase the thunderstorm chances across the Florida Peninsula during Thursday and Friday and then increase the thunderstorm chances along much of the northern Gulf coast throughout this upcoming weekend.

You must be logged in to view this content.

You must be logged in to view this content.