Summary: Tornadoes, including a couple of strong tornadoes, are expected the rest of this afternoon into early this evening across southeast Texas. This tornado threat does include the Houston Metro, as well as the I-10 corridor from Houston to Beaumont.
In addition to the tornado threat, severe storms will bring the threat for wind gusts of 60-70 mph and large hail across southeast Texas the rest of this afternoon and then across Louisiana and southern Arkansas tonight.
Details: Scattered thunderstorm activity is currently occurring across parts of southeast Texas, including a broken line of strong thunderstorms that stretches from near College Station to Victoria. These thunderstorms are expected to strengthen and become severe over the next couple of hours and as they do so, they will pose the threat for tornadoes, damaging winds and hail across southeast Texas.
The environmental conditions across southeast Texas are favorable for severe weather. These conditions include a somewhat unstable atmosphere and some strong low-level wind shear.
For the rest of this afternoon, it is expected that strong to severe storms with some becoming supercellular in nature will be a threat across southeast Texas.
It should be noted that experimental severe weather guidance has the Houston Metro in a fairly high risk area for tornadoes between about 2 pm and 4 pm CST. This enhanced tornado threat then looks to shift into the I-10 corridor east of Houston towards Beaumont during the late afternoon and early evening hours.
By the overnight hours of tonight, the storms are expected to evolve into a line of strong to severe thunderstorms that push eastward across Louisiana and southern Arkansas posing a threat for 60-70 mph wind gusts and hail.