I wanted to update you on the slight possibility that we could see tropical development in either the Bay of Campeche or the southern Gulf either later this coming week or during next weekend.

It seems the system that we will need to watch for future tropical mischief is an area of disturbed weather that’s actually located over the eastern Pacific to the south of El Salvador and Guatemala. This disturbed weather is labeled Invest 92-E by the National Hurricane Center.

It seems that some of the model guidance, including the European model and the track model guidance want to pull the energy and moisture of Invest 92-E from the eastern Pacific across Central America and emerging into the Bay of Campeche by about Friday or Saturday. This is a change from what was expected just a couple of days ago & it’s a scenario that can lead to a tropical system in the Bay of Campeche and the southern Gulf. In fact, we most recently saw a tropical system crossover from the eastern Pacific into the Gulf back in 2020.

My latest take on this is that it’s possible that we could see a tropical system form in either the Bay of Campeche or the southern Gulf during the very end of this coming week or during next weekend. That being said, I still think that the chances of this occurring are very low (less than 20 percent). It can be quite a feat for a formed tropical system to cross from the eastern Pacific into the Bay of Campeche and then redevelop into a tropical system.

Now, if (and that is a big if) we do see tropical development in the Bay of Campeche or the southern Gulf late this coming week or next weekend, it’ll likely be quite weak. At this point, it’s just something to keep an eye on, just in case, and is nothing to be overly worried or concerned about.

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