Area Of Disturbed Weather Located Near The Turks & Caicos Islands & The Far Southeastern Bahamas: As expected, an area of disturbed weather is located late this afternoon near the Turks and Caicos Islands and the far southeastern Bahamas. This area of disturbed weather is producing a large area of showers and thunderstorms that extend from Hispaniola and eastern Cuba northeastward across the southeastern Bahamas and into the Atlantic to the northeast of the Bahamas.
This disturbed weather is being caused by diverging air from an upper level trough over the Bahamas interacting with a low pressure system located over the Turks and Caicos Islands.
The environmental conditions around this area of disturbed weather are not favorable for any significant development due to very strong wind shear values and a large amount of dry air that is located on the western side of this system.
That said, there is the possibility for some brief sub-tropical development as this disturbance heads northeastward into the open Atlantic to the southeast of Bermuda late Friday into Saturday.
All-in-all though, this disturbance is not expected to be much of a deal at all and more of a curiosity than anything.
Western Caribbean Tropical Development Still Looks Possible During The First Week Of June: Even though next week looks quiet in terms of tropical development chances, it continues to look possible that we could see tropical development over the western Caribbean as soon as the first week of June.
One of the reasons why we may see tropical development is due to a favorable phase of the Madden Julian Oscillation, which will be pushing into the Atlantic Basin during the early part of June. These favorable phases of the Madden Julian Oscillation is associated with rising air and enhanced amounts of rainfall. They are also known to often enhance tropical development chances.
Another factor we need to closely look at are the extremely warm ocean water temperatures over the western Caribbean. These ocean water temperatures are well above average for this time of year and in fact are running above average what you would normally see during the peak of hurricane season. This means that anything that can form over the western Caribbean, not only during early June but during the entire hurricane season, will be able to take advantage of these record warm ocean temperatures and develop extremely significantly and potentially very rapidly strengthen.
Looking at the latest model guidance reveals that the GFS ensemble model is showing quite a few members that are forecasting tropical development to occur over the western and northwestern Caribbean during the first week of June. The members that do show development seem to suggest any system will head north or northeastward towards either the Bahamas or the Florida Peninsula around the late part of the first week of June (June 6-8 time frame).
The European ensemble model shows a few members that are forecasting genesis of a tropical system over the southwestern Caribbean during the first part of the first week of June. These members then show a track that takes this system into the northwestern Caribbean during the middle part of the first week of June.
Finally, the latest analog guidance for the first part of June reveals that the top three analog years are 2005, 2007 and 1998 based on the forecast upper level weather pattern.
Looking at each of the three analog years reveals that we had Tropical Storm Arlene during the first part of June of 2005, which tracked from the northwestern Caribbean to a landfall just west of Pensacola, Florida. As for 2007, there was Tropical Storm Barry, which tracked from the northwestern Caribbean to a landfall near Tampa, Florida. Finally, looking at the 1998 analog reveals that there was no formations of tropical systems during June that year.
Here Are My Thoughts: Given all of the signals in the data, I do think that there is still about a 20 percent chance that we will see some sort of tropical development occur in the western Caribbean during the first week of June.
Looking at the upper level weather pattern forecast by the ensemble guidance reveals that there may be an upper level trough over the eastern United States and the western Atlantic. This type of pattern could cause this system to track northeastward from the western Caribbean towards either the Florida Peninsula or the Bahamas.
This possible western Caribbean development is something that I’m going to keep a close eye on and I will certainly have many more updates over the next couple of weeks or so. That said, this possible development is nothing be overly concerned about or worried about, for now.
The next tropical weather discussion will be issued on Saturday.