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Tropical Storm Dexter: Dexter is producing deep amounts of convection as it heads northeastward towards the open Atlantic. It is expected that the storm will become post-tropical by Thursday and then reach the area north of the Azores as a powerful non-tropical low pressure system.

From there, the low pressure system that was once Dexter should reach the British Isles by Tuesday and Wednesday of next week as a strong storm system.

Low Pressure Offshore Of The Southeast US Coast: Weather analysis today revealed that a low pressure system has formed offshore of the US Southeast coast. Even though a low pressure system has formed, satellite imagery indicates that there is only limited amounts of convection occurring with this system.

It is looking increasingly more likely that this low pressure system will stay offshore of the Carolina coastline and not be a direct impact. This further offshore track may end up lessening the heavy rainfall threat to the Southeast US coast over the next several days.

Any development into a tropical depression or even a tropical storm will be very slow to occur and if it does happen, it probably wont occur until this weekend as this system passes to the east of the outer banks of North Carolina. From there, this system is expected to turn to the northeast and pass well offshore of the New England coast by early next week.

The main impact from this system, whether it develops or not, will be locally heavy rainfall and rip currents. Rainfall totals of 2 to 4 inches look likely along the immediate coasts of North Carolina and South Carolina from Thursday through Sunday.

Forecast Rainfall Totals From Thursday Through Sunday:

A Tropical Wave Over The Eastern Tropical Atlantic May Develop Into A Tropical System In The Central Tropical Atlantic Late This Week Or This Weekend: Satellite imagery today showed that a tropical wave located over the eastern Tropical Atlantic near about 33 West Longitude is producing disorganized convection.

It seems likely that we will see slow development of this tropical wave as it moves in a west-northwest to northwest direction. Because of this slow development, it seems possible that this wave will develop into a depression or even a tropical storm by this weekend.

All guidance seems to now point to this system curving to the northwest and north well before it reaches the Lesser Antilles. The reason for this is due to a weakness in a high pressure ridge over the central Atlantic that’ll allow this system to turn northward before it’s able to be steered by a strong western Atlantic high pressure ridge.

Most guidance are pointing to this system staying to the east of Bermuda during the first half of next week. That said, interests in Bermuda should keep an eye on this particular wave, in case it tracks just far enough west to be an issue.

Bottom line is that this wave, whether it develops or not, poses no threat at all to the Lesser Antilles, the Caribbean, the Bahamas or the United States.

Another Tropical Wave Pushing Off Of The Coast Of Africa By This Weekend Could Be Trouble: I think that we are going to have to keep very close tabs on a tropical wave that’ll be pushing off of the coast of Africa by the end of this week or early this weekend as it could end up being a real big trouble maker.

The weather pattern for this weekend through next week is expected to consist of a strong high pressure ridge which will guide this system due westward next week towards the Caribbean or the southwestern North Atlantic where conditions are expected to be favorable for development.

Model guidance such as the GFS and the European models are pointing towards this system to impact the Lesser Antilles between Wednesday and Friday of next week. Beyond this, guidance seems to suggest diverging forecast tracks with some ensemble members showing a track from east-southeast to west-northwest across the Caribbean. Other ensemble members suggest a track towards the Bahamas by late next week and next weekend.

At this point, it would be pure speculation to say where exactly this wave will track or how strong it could become. As I mentioned yesterday, the steering winds next week will likely steer this wave due westward & this could very well put the Lesser Antilles at risk of seeing a tropical system between about Wednesday and Friday of next week.

My recommendation to those of you in the Lesser Antilles is to closely monitor the progress of this particular tropical wave once it splashes down in the eastern Atlantic around Friday or Saturday.

Eastern Gulf Low Pressure Development Possible This Weekend: Satellite imagery and weather analysis indicated that there is a trough of low pressure located over the Bahamas today. While there is no low or mid-level spin with this system, the environmental conditions are favorable for development.

It is expected that this low pressure trough will move westward reaching the southeastern Gulf by late Thursday or Friday where it might need to be watched for signs of development.

Some of the model guidance do show a low pressure center forming from this trough that moves northward across the eastern Gulf this weekend reaching the northeastern Gulf coast by about Monday.

Overall, I think that the chances of tropical development of any low pressure system that forms over the eastern Gulf this weekend is around 20-30 percent or so.

One thing that this system will do, whether it develops or not, is to bring a wet several days to the central and eastern Gulf coast from later today right through this weekend.

I will be keeping an eye on this system and will have updates as needed.

The next tropical weather discussion will be issued on Friday.

https://crownweather.com/a-bit-of-a-burst-of-tropical-activity-is-expected-across-the-atlantic-over-the-next-week-or-so/

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Tropical Storm Dexter: Dexter is headed out in the open Atlantic and is currently located to the northeast of Bermuda. It’s expected that Dexter will continue moving to the northeast into the open Atlantic with no threats to land.

Additionally, it is anticipated that Dexter will become a pretty strong post-tropical storm in a couple of days from now.

All-in-all, Dexter is nothing to be concerned about and because of that, let’s take a look at what else is going on.

Tropical Development Is A Possibility Near Coastal Parts Of South Carolina & North Carolina Later This Week: Satellite imagery and weather analysis reveals that there is a trough of low pressure located just east of the Bahamas. It is anticipated that this trough of low pressure will head in a northwestward towards the coastal Carolinas over the next 2-3 days or so. Additionally, it seems possible that a low pressure system might form from this trough in a couple of days from now.

The environmental conditions around this low pressure system are expected to be favorable enough to support slow development. This means that development of this system into a depression or a tropical storm is possible as it heads slowly northward between Friday and Sunday where it’ll reach the eastern parts of North Carolina by Sunday.

That said, it doesn’t appear that this system will become all that strong & may strengthen just enough to be considered a depression or a low-end tropical storm that affects eastern parts of South Carolina and eastern parts of North Carolina this weekend.

Whether this system develops into a tropical cyclone or not, the main impacts will be heavy rainfall late this week through this weekend across areas from the Florida Peninsula through the coastal Carolinas where rain totals of 3 to 5 inches can be expected. Additionally, rip currents are expected along the coasts of North Carolina and South Carolina later this week through this weekend.

Bottom line is that this system definitely should be watched for potential development, especially given how close it’ll be to land.

Rainfall Totals From Later This Week Until Early Next Week:

Tropical Development Is Possible By Late This Week Over The Central Tropical Atlantic: Analysis today reveals that there is a tropical wave located over the far eastern tropical Atlantic near about 33 West Longitude. Satellite imagery shows that there is some increase in convection associated with the wave as compared to what it looked like yesterday.

The environmental conditions across the eastern tropical Atlantic are favorable for development and these favorable conditions are expected to exist as this wave pushes into the central Tropical Atlantic by later this week. Because of this, development into a depression or a tropical storm is quite possible late this week or this weekend. That being said, any development that does occur is likely to be slow and again, probably wont occur for a few days.

The model guidance are split in what they want to do with this wave and how much development occurs from it.

The European model and its ensemble members forecast quicker development and a faster turn to the northwest into the central Atlantic by this weekend. This leads to a system that stays way out in the Atlantic with no threats at all.

On the other hand, the GFS model and its ensemble members show a weaker system that takes its time to develop. Because of this, the GFS model forecasts a much more westward and west-northwestward track that leads to this system tracking near or just north of the northeastern Caribbean by late this weekend and early next week.

Beyond this, the GFS model and its ensemble members show the conditions potentially becoming quite favorable for development and strengthening over the southwestern North Atlantic next week. Because of this, if this wave does not curve to the northwest and north and instead drives westward and west-northwestward, it would mean we would really have to watch it very closely.

Here Are My Thoughts: I’m skeptical of the European model’s forecast of quick development and instead I think that we’re probably looking at much slower development, like what the GFS model seems to show. This means that if this wave does wait to develop until it makes it past 60 West Longitude, it may become an issue in terms of being a threat.

The weather pattern setup for next week when this system is possibly pushing into the southwestern North Atlantic is going to include an upper level high pressure system that sets up over the western Atlantic. This high pressure ridge could guide any developing system westward towards the Bahamas and the US East Coast.

This means that while the wave is of no threat for at least the next several days, it could become a threat next week once it passes by the northeastern Caribbean and heads for the Bahamas.

It goes without saying that I will be keeping a very close eye on this tropical wave over at least the next several days. For now though, this wave is nothing to be overly concerned or worried about and is something to just keep an eye on.

Another Tropical Wave Pushing Off Of The Coast Of Africa In A Few Days Has A Better Chance Of Becoming Something To Be Concerned About: Yet another robust tropical wave will be pushing off of the coast of Africa late this week and I do think this wave and the tropical wave right behind this one may actually have a slightly higher chance of organizing and developing. Also these two waves probably will track lower in latitude and thus could be a concern to the Lesser Antilles in about a week from now.

At this point, it would be pure speculation to say what will happen when these two waves splash down in the eastern Atlantic at the end of this week. I will say though that the steering winds next week should steer these two waves due westward reaching the Lesser Antilles by the middle part of next week. Because of this, these two waves also need to be watched very closely in the coming days.

One Final Item To Mention: The eastern Gulf might need to be watched for another low pressure to spin up over this weekend. Some of the European ensemble model guidance members are hinting that a low pressure system may form over the eastern and northeastern Gulf this weekend and head for the northeastern Gulf Coast by early next week.

Should any low pressure system form and become organized, it could try to become a depression or a tropical storm. One thing that the stalled frontal boundary and any low pressure system will do is bring wetter than average conditions to the central and eastern Gulf Coast from later this week through this weekend into early next week.

So, this is yet something else to keep an eye on over the next several days.

The next tropical weather discussion will be issued on Wednesday.

https://crownweather.com/dexter-will-push-out-into-the-open-atlantic-while-development-could-occur-near-the-coasts-of-south-a-couple-of-tropical-waves-over-the-central-eastern-tropical-atla/

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Invest 95-L Located Offshore Of The North Carolina Coast: Satellite imagery and weather analysis indicates that there is a non-tropical low pressure system located about 200 miles or so offshore of the North Carolina coast. This low pressure system is producing deep amounts of convection near its center. Also, the wind shear values around this low pressure system are favorable for development.

It’s quite possible that this low pressure system will become a tropical or sub-tropical depression or tropical storm between now and Monday as it heads east-northeastward away from the East Coast of the United States and out into the open Atlantic. This means that even if Invest 95-L does develop into a depression or a tropical storm, it will not be a threat to any land areas as it will safely move out into the open Atlantic.

Additional Tropical Development Is Possible Near The Southeast US Coast Later This Week: Following close behind Invest 95-L, it looks quite possible that tropical development could occur near the Southeast coast of the United States by a little later this week. In fact, pretty much all of the model guidance are forecasting this to occur with the differences in the models found where this system might go.

The GFS model forecasts a system to form to the southeast of the North Carolina coast by mid-week and head towards eastern North Carolina by late this week. The GFS model then forecasts this system, which looks quite weak, to move into eastern North Carolina by about Saturday.

The Canadian model doesn’t forecast any sort of a secondary low pressure system.

The European model seems to hint at some sort of a tropical system to form to the north of the Bahamas by Wednesday and then track northward reaching the outer banks of North Carolina by Saturday.

The GFS ensemble model guidance certainly sees it as it has a cluster that are hinting at development just north of the Bahamas by Thursday. The ensemble members then diverge with some members showing a track westward into the Florida Peninsula or coastal Georgia while other members show a track northward into the Carolinas and the Mid-Atlantic states.

The European ensemble model guidance also seems to see the potential for some sort of development to the southeast of the North Carolina coast by Wednesday or Thursday. Ensemble guidance then diverges with some members forecasting tracks towards the Carolinas and the Mid-Atlantic, some members forecasting a track up towards New England and other members forecasting a track westward into northeast Florida and coastal Georgia.

Here Are My Thoughts: It seems that the system to watch for possible development will form to the southwest of Invest 95-L as it pulls out into the open Atlantic. This should occur by about Wednesday or so. An area of high pressure over the northeastern United States and Atlantic Canada should be able to push any system that tries to form to the west and northwest towards the US Southeast coast by late this week and next weekend.

For now, I’m going to go with a very low chance for development as I’d like to see its structure and what sort of environment it moves through before I raise the development chances. Those of you along the Southeast coast of the United States and especially those of you on the North Carolina coast should closely monitor the progress of this possible system.

Bottom line is that I will be keeping a close eye on this possible system and will more updates over the next few days.

Tropical Development Is Possible By Mid To Late Week In The Central Tropical Atlantic: A tropical wave is expected to push off of the coast of Africa over the next couple of days or so. This wave is expected to push west-northwestward across the eastern and then the central Tropical Atlantic throughout this upcoming week where conditions may be favorable for some development.

Model guidance such as the GFS ensemble models and the European ensemble models seem to suggest that anything that develops may travel far enough north in latitude to miss the Lesser Antilles completely and eventually head out into the open Atlantic. That said, there are a couple of ensemble members that do show a very close track to the northeastern Caribbean by about August 11.

The Google Deep Mind AI weather model has a large spread in where it thinks any system that forms this week over the central Tropical Atlantic. Some of its ensemble members show a safe track out into the open Atlantic well away from the Caribbean, the Bahamas or the US East Coast. Other members do threaten the northeastern Caribbean by next week and then go on to threaten the Bahamas by about August 12.
Here Are My Thoughts: As I mentioned a couple of days ago, the tropical wave that will be pushing off of the coast of Africa over the next day or two definitely needs to be watched as it heads westward this week.

The environmental conditions across the eastern and central Tropical Atlantic are marginally favorable for development. There is favorable conditions across areas near and east of 40 West Longitude. This turns into unfavorable environmental conditions from about 45 West Longitude and points west. This could mean that we might see development occur by mid-week and then anything that tries to form may then struggle due to the unfavorable conditions late this week as it moves into the central Tropical Atlantic.

The weather pattern this week across the Atlantic is expected to include a weakness in the high pressure ridge east of Bermuda. This means that if this wave does develop into a tropical storm this week, it would likely be turned out into the open Atlantic well before it reaches the Lesser Antilles. On the other hand, if this wave struggles and doesn’t develop at all, it could stay further south and move in the vicinity of the Leeward Islands next weekend before heading towards the Bahamas.

It goes without saying that I will be keeping a very close eye on this tropical wave as it heads westward this week. Those of you in the Leeward Islands and the northeastern Caribbean should monitor this wave closely, just in case.

The next tropical weather discussion will be issued on Tuesday.

https://crownweather.com/invest-95-l-is-expected-to-head-out-into-the-open-atlantic-while-additional-tropical-development-is-possible-near-the-southeast-us-coast-later-this-week-tropical-development-is-also-possible-over-the/

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With the turn of the calendar page, we are now entering the active months of the Atlantic hurricane season (August, September & October) where a large majority of the activity and impacts occur. Right now, there are no areas that warrant immediate concern in terms of tropical development across the Atlantic, Caribbean and Gulf.

There are a couple of areas, however, that I continue to keep an eye on:

The First Area That I’m Watching Is near and offshore of the Carolinas where a stalled frontal system will remain in place throughout this weekend into next week. Along this front, it is expected that at least a couple of low pressure systems will form and head east-northeastward into the open Atlantic.

It is possible that some sort of development could occur with the low pressure system that forms just offshore of the North Carolina coast on Sunday and Monday and heads east-northeastward into the open Atlantic. Model guidance such as the GFS model, the Canadian model and the European model and their ensemble counterparts seem to show this system organizing just enough to perhaps become a depression as it heads out into the open Atlantic next week.

All-in-all, if any of the low pressure systems do become a depression next week as they head east-northeastward into the open Atlantic, they will not pose a threat to any land & they likely will remain fairly weak.

It is something that I am keeping an eye on and I’ll have updates as needed.

The Second Item That I’m Watching Closely Is the potential for a notable uptick in tropical development chances starting as soon as later next week and continuing through the week of August 11. This potential uptick in tropical development chances will coincide with the upward motion pulse of the Madden Julian Oscillation, which will be pushing into the Atlantic Basin starting next week and will remain in place through the middle and possibly later parts of this month. This upward motion pulse will allow for conditions to be more conducive for any westward moving tropical waves to develop.

Model guidance such as the GFS ensemble model guidance and the European ensemble model guidance seem to agree that a tropical wave pushing westward across the central and eastern Tropical Atlantic may try to develop into a tropical system later next week as it approaches the Leeward Islands. The ensemble model guidance then seems to point towards anything that forms may track near the Bahamas and the Southeast coast of the United States by around August 13.

The ensemble model guidance has the support of the Google Deep Mind AI weather model, which also suggests a tropical wave becoming a tropical system before it reaches the Leeward Islands later next week. The ensemble members of the AI model then seems to suggest any tropical system to head for an area somewhere between the eastern Gulf and the southeastern coast of the United States by about August 13.

The tropical wave that the models are latching onto for potential tropical development later next week is currently located over western Africa. This wave is expected to push off of the coast of Africa into the far eastern Tropical Atlantic during this weekend and then head westward across the eastern and then central Tropical Atlantic during next week.

A look at the current environmental conditions across the eastern and central Tropical Atlantic reveals that the wind shear values aren’t all that favorable for development. There are strong amounts of wind shear found from about 40-45 West Longitude eastward to the coast of Africa. West of 45 West Longitude, the wind shear values do become more favorable for development and this is probably why the model guidance delay any sort of development until this wave approaches the Leeward Islands.

Here Are My Thoughts: I think that the tropical wave that’ll be pushing off of the African coast this weekend will certainly need to be watched closely as it heads westward across the eastern and central Tropical Atlantic next week.

Now I do think that this wave will struggle for a while due to sinking stable air and strong amounts of wind shear that’ll be found across the eastern and central Tropical Atlantic. These conditions may become more favorable near the Leeward Islands and because of this, tropical development may become a concern late next week into next weekend as this wave moves near or right over the Leeward Islands and the northeastern Caribbean.

Bottom line is that, I will be keeping a very close eye on this system next week as it heads westward from the coast of Africa to the Leeward Islands. That being said, I do think that the chances for development are quite low, probably less than 20 percent. The reason why is because I think the sinking stable air and strong wind shear may put quite a bite into this wave & even when the conditions become more favorable for development, there may not be much left of the wave to develop.

The next tropical weather discussion will be issued on Tuesday.

https://crownweather.com/no-immediate-tropical-development-is-expected-this-weekend-across-the-atlantic-caribbean-gulf/

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While things are fairly quiet across the Atlantic, Caribbean and Gulf, it does look like things will probably start becoming much more active once we head towards mid-August or so.

An upward motion pulse of the Madden Julian Oscillation, which promotes rising air and storminess is currently moving across the central and eastern Pacific. It is expected that this upward motion pulse of the Madden Julian Oscillation will find its way into the Atlantic starting next week and with it, there is likely to be increased chances for tropical development.

Because of this, there are some areas of interest that I am keeping an eye on:

The First Area That I’m Watching Is near and just offshore of the US Southeast coast. A frontal boundary is expected to stall from the Carolinas eastward into the western North Atlantic by this weekend. Several low pressure systems are likely to form along this front and move east-northeastward.

My guess is that these low pressure systems will remain non-tropical in nature and will remain linked to the frontal boundary. Because of this, the tropical development chances near and offshore of the southeast coast of the United States are very low. That said, it is something that I will be keeping an eye on, just in case.

The Second Item That I’m Keeping An Eye On Is a couple of tropical waves over the central and eastern Tropical Atlantic. One wave is located near 45 West Longitude and the second wave is located near 30 West Longitude. There is very little convection occurring with either wave and development is not expected anytime soon.

It is anticipated that these two waves will merge as they move west-northwestward and pass over the Leeward Islands by about Friday into Saturday. While development is not expected, this wave may bring some squally weather to the Leeward Islands during Friday into Saturday.
Beyond this, it is expected that this tropical wave will reach the Bahamas by early next week where there is some minor interest from the model guidance of it trying to develop. The UKMET model has the most interest in forecasting development from this wave as it shows it becoming a depression in the northwestern Bahamas by early next week and then head for the Southeastern United States during the middle and later parts of next week as a tropical storm.

Other than that, just the European ensemble model guidance does have a couple of members that hint at development later next week north of the Bahamas.

For now, I think the chances of development between the Bahamas and the US Southeast Coast next week are pretty low (less than a 25 percent chance). That being said, this tropical wave will be monitored very closely in the coming days, in case it does try to develop.

The Third Item That I Will Be Keeping A Close Eye On Are the follow up tropical waves that will be pushing off of the coast of Africa over the next couple of weeks. As I mentioned earlier in this discussion, an upward motion pulse of the Madden Julian Oscillation will be pushing into the Atlantic Basin starting next week and will remain in place through mid-August. This will allow for conditions to be more conducive for any westward moving tropical waves to develop.

The longer range model guidance are already seeing these expected changes in the tropics by forecasting increased chances for tropical development over the central and eastern Tropical Atlantic starting later next week and continuing through the week of August 11. In fact, the longer range European ensemble model is forecasting that the week of August 11 could be particularly active with almost double the normal activity for that particular week & this all could come from the wave that the models are developing.

So, which tropical wave is the model guidance honing in on as a candidate for likely development? In trying to track the energy that leads to the development in the models backwards, it seems it’s the tropical wave that’s still located over east-central Africa near about 10-15 East Longitude. Guidance seems to suggest this wave will push off of the coast of Africa into the far eastern Tropical Atlantic early next week and then reach the Lesser Antilles late next week or next weekend. Beyond this, longer range guidance hints at this wave being in the vicinity of the Bahamas during the first half of the week of August 11.

Because of this, I do think that this particular tropical wave that’s still located over east-central Africa will need to be watched very closely as we get into next week through next weekend as it heads westward across the eastern and central Tropical Atlantic towards the Lesser Antilles.

The next tropical weather discussion will be issued on Friday.

https://crownweather.com/no-immediate-tropical-development-is-expected-however-there-are-still-things-to-keep-an-eye-on/

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Looking at the Atlantic Basin today, it appears that the activity has gotten a little more active than what it looked like even on Friday.
The First Item Of Note Is an area of fairly robust thunderstorms that are located to the north of the Lesser Antilles near about 24 North Latitude, 61 West Longitude. These thunderstorms are occurring on the northern end of a westward moving tropical wave.

A look at the environmental conditions around this wave reveals that the wind shear values are marginally favorable for development right now, but there is some much stronger wind shear values found just to the west. Also, there is very little or no low or mid-level circulation occurring with the wave – meaning that there is no low pressure forming in association with the thunderstorm activity.

My take on this first item is that even though the thunderstorm activity looks fairly robust on satellite imagery, there is very little evidence in the data that suggests it’s going to develop. This means that the chances of development are near zero.

The Second Item That I’m Watching Is a tropical wave that is now pushing off of the coast of Africa. The convection with this wave is robust, but is also disorganized. A look at the environmental conditions reveals that the wind shear values are favorable for development. The impediment to any development of this wave as it moves westward is going to be an abundant amount of dry air.

After showing development late last week, all of the model guidance have backed off on their forecasts of development this week as it heads westward. The likely reason why guidance no longer shows development is probably due to all of the dry air between the Lesser Antilles and the coast of Africa.

My feeling is that there is a very low chance of tropical development as this tropical wave heads westward and approaches the Lesser Antilles later this week. That said, I will be keeping an eye on this wave as it heads westward this week, just in case.

Will There Be Tropical Mischief Off Of The Southeast Coast Of The United States Next Week? – There is the possibility that we could see some sort of tropical mischief just offshore of the US Southeast coast next week as that tropical wave that’s now located near the coast of Africa lifts northwestward from the Lesser Antilles late this week to the Bahamas early next week. At the same time this is happening, it’s possible that we could see a low pressure system form near the tail end of a front offshore of the Southeast coast of the US. This combination could lead to the development of a tropical system next week somewhere in the area between Bermuda and the northernmost Bahamas.

You see some very different results when you look at the model guidance.

On one hand, the GFS ensemble model guidance seems to suggest any low pressure system will remain frontal in nature and just head east-northeastward away from the Carolina coastline and into the open Atlantic.

On the other hand, the European ensemble model guidance hints at any low pressure system that forms might hand around near the Carolina coastline next week and try to form. In fact, the European ensemble model guidance is showing a 40-45 percent chance of tropical development near the South Carolina coast by early next week.

The AI models such as the Google Deep Mind AI weather model shows a very messy scenario of any tail end low pressure systems trying to absorb the energy and moisture from that tropical wave. This leads to a tight clustering of ensemble members showing development in the area between the Bahamas and Bermuda early next week. The AI ensemble models then diverge wildly with some members curving this system out into the open Atlantic & other members showing a track towards the US Southeast coast later next week.

All-in-all, I do think that the area just offshore of the Southeast Coast of the United States needs to be watched closely for potential development as soon as early next week. It’s something that I will be keeping an eye on & will have more updates in the coming days.

The next tropical weather discussion will be issued on Wednesday.

https://crownweather.com/the-atlantic-has-gotten-a-little-bit-more-active-today-heres-what-were-watching/

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Area Of Low Pressure Over The Northwestern Gulf: Satellite imagery and analysis of weather data indicated that there is a broad low pressure system that’s located over the northwestern Gulf about 100 miles to the south of the coast of southwestern Louisiana. This low pressure system continues to produce disorganized shower and thunderstorm activity.

It is expected that the low pressure system will move inland into the upper Texas coast by tonight and it is expected that locally heavy rain will occur across the middle and upper Texas coast and across southwestern Louisiana today into Saturday. Rainfall totals of up to 1 to 2 inches are possible in spots.

Tropical Development Is A Possibility Over The Central & Eastern Tropical Atlantic Around The Middle & Later Parts Of Next Week: It looks like tropical development could happen during the second half of next week as a tropical wave is expected to push off of the coast of Africa around Monday or Tuesday.

A good chunk of the model guidance are showing the beginning states of development from this tropical wave as it moves westward and reaches about 35-40 West about the middle part of next week. Out of all of the guidance, the European ensemble model continues to be the most aggressive in its forecast development of this wave and does show upwards of a 70 percent chance for tropical development during the middle part of next week in the area around 35 West Longitude.

Guidance then shows this system, whether it develops or not, to reach the Lesser Antilles around next Friday or next Saturday and then has it either moving right over the Greater Antilles or heading up towards the Bahamas by late next week.

The Google Deep Mind AI model (which did very well last year with the tracks and intensities of tropical systems) does point to the potential of the initial development to occur around Wednesday near 40 West Longitude. A majority of the AI ensemble models point to this system to be near the northeastern Caribbean around next Friday or next Saturday. The spread of the members of the Google AI model then increases, but they all do suggest this system could be in the southwestern North Atlantic somewhere near or just east of the Bahamas by Tuesday, August 5 and Wednesday, August 6.

My takeaway from all of this is that tropical development looks quite possible during the middle and later parts of next week. Those of you in the Leeward Islands and the northeastern Caribbean should keep a very close eye on the progress of this system as it may affect you around next Friday or next Saturday.

It’s something to watch closely, but it’s nothing to be overly worried or concerned about.

The next tropical weather discussion will be issued on Monday.

https://crownweather.com/tropical-development-is-a-possibility-over-the-eastern-central-tropical-atlantic-during-the-middle-later-parts-of-next-week/

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Area Of Low Pressure Over The Northern Gulf: Satellite imagery and analysis of weather data indicated that there is a disorganized area of low pressure located over the north-central Gulf. This low pressure system is producing some very disorganized areas of showers and thunderstorms from the north-central Gulf into the northeastern Gulf.

While the conditions are largely unfavorable for development due to strong wind shear and land interaction, it’s possible that this low pressure system may find itself in a slightly more favorable environment on Friday when it’s approaching the upper Texas coast. If that does occur, then we may see some increase in organization of the low pressure system before it moves inland into the upper Texas coast later Friday night and Saturday morning.

All-in-all though, the chances for development are nearly nil.

What this low pressure system will do is produce periods of heavy rainfall across much of the northern and northeastern Gulf coast throughout today that lasts into part of Friday. This locally heavy rainfall will then affect the upper Texas coast during Friday and Saturday.

Tropical Wave Activity Across The Central & Eastern Tropical Atlantic: Robust tropical wave activity continues across the central and eastern Tropical Atlantic with a new wave pushing off of the coast of Africa every 2-4 days or so.

One tropical wave now located over the eastern Tropical Atlantic near 35 West Longitude is producing some very limited thunderstorm activity. That said, this wave is producing some decent low and mid-level spin, even though it’s somewhat elongated. Also, analysis of wind shear values indicates that the conditions are favorable for development. Because of this, some slight development of this wave is quite possible as it heads westward reaching the Lesser Antilles early next week. Overall though, I’m not expecting any sort of robust development from this particular wave, but it will bring a round of squally weather to the Lesser Antilles early next week.

The model guidance is more interested in forecasting development of a tropical wave that’s still located over west-central Africa. This wave is expected to push off of the coast of Africa into the far eastern Tropical Atlantic late this weekend and early next week. While the GFS ensemble model guidance isn’t very interested in forecasting development of this wave, the European ensemble model guidance is fairly aggressive in forecasting development. In fact, the European ensemble model guidance shows at least a 50 percent chance for tropical development in the east-central Tropical Atlantic during the first half of next week. Guidance like the European ensemble model then shows weakening of this wave as it approaches the Lesser Antilles late next week and next week. That said, it does indicate the wave to remain very robust right into the Lesser Antilles.

I also wanted to mention that the Google Deep Mind AI model is showing the wave that we’ll be watching next week to potentially develop in the southwestern North Atlantic during the week of August 4. This has support of the longer range European ensemble model guidance as it shows development chances to increase just offshore of the Carolina and Georgia coastline during the early part of the week of August 4.

All-in-all, I do think that the tropical wave that’s still over west-central Africa is a very strong candidate for tropical development next week as it heads westward across the eastern and central Tropical Atlantic. Those of you in the Lesser Antilles should keep an eye on the progress of this particular wave.

The next tropical weather discussion will be issued on Friday.

https://crownweather.com/area-of-low-pressure-over-the-northern-gulf-likely-will-not-develop-but-will-bring-periods-of-heavy-rain-across-the-northern-gulf-coast-through-friday-across-coastal-parts-of-texas-on-friday-throug/

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Invest 94-L Located To The East Of The Lesser Antilles: The shower and thunderstorm activity associated with Invest 94-L is so disorganized today that the Invest 94-L has dropped its designation. The reason for this is because the amount of wind shear over this system continues to increase and become more unfavorable for development. In fact, a wall of strong wind shear awaits this disturbance once it moves into the eastern Caribbean later Wednesday and Thursday. This means that this system will completely fall apart when it reaches the eastern Caribbean late Wednesday and Thursday.

What this disturbance will do is bring some squally weather to a large part of the Lesser Antilles during Wednesday and Wednesday night.

Area Of Disturbed Weather Will Move Across The Northern Gulf Mid To Late Week: Satellite imagery today indicated that there is some convection occurring at the tail end of a frontal boundary. This thunderstorm activity stretches from off of the southeast coast of the United States westward to across the northern Florida Peninsula to the northeast Gulf.

This thunderstorm activity is expected to push westward into the northern Gulf as we get into later Wednesday and Thursday. The disturbance associated with this thunderstorm activity is then expected to push westward across the northern Gulf during Thursday and Friday and may move inland into either southern Louisiana or the upper Texas coast later Friday into Saturday.

The chances for development of this disturbance are extremely low. What this disturbance will do is bring some enhanced rainfall and an increased coverage of thunderstorm activity to much of the Florida Peninsula from the rest of today through Wednesday and Thursday. This disturbance will then bring enhanced rainfall and an increased coverage of thunderstorm activity to the central Gulf Coast during Thursday, Friday and Saturday. Some of this rain looks to then affect southeastern and eastern parts of Texas from Friday into this weekend.


Tropical Wave Located Over The Far Eastern Tropical Atlantic: Another tropical wave pushed off of the coast of Africa and is now located over the far eastern Tropical Atlantic. This wave is producing some disorganized thunderstorm activity and the environmental conditions are marginally favorable for development. These marginally favorable environmental conditions exists across much of the eastern and central Tropical Atlantic and because of this, some development is not out of the question as the wave heads westward reaching the central Tropical Atlantic by late this week and this weekend.

All-in-all, the model guidance continues to show little or no development from this wave due to the marginally favorable environmental conditions.

My guess is that we probably will not see any development from this wave, but it will probably bring a round of squally weather to the Lesser Antilles early next week.

Finally – It should be noted that some of the model guidance are more interested in a tropical wave that’s still located over central Africa. The interest lies in the fact that some of the guidance show higher chances for tropical development from this wave once it reaches the central Tropical Atlantic around the middle part of next week. This could be something to watch once we get into next week.

The next tropical weather discussion will be issued on Thursday.

https://crownweather.com/remnants-of-invest-94-l-will-bring-squally-weather-to-the-lesser-antilles-on-wednesday-northern-gulf-disturbance-will-bring-enhanced-rainfall-to-the-northern-gulf-coast-from-thursday-through-saturday/

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Invest 94-L Located About 700 Miles To The East-Southeast Of The Lesser Antilles: Satellite imagery today indicated that the shower and thunderstorm activity associated with an area of low pressure, designated Invest 94-L by the National Hurricane Center, has become more consolidated. That said, there really isn’t any deep convection occurring with Invest 94-L, just that the overall structure is a little more consolidated.

Analysis of environmental conditions reveals that there is strong wind shear occurring on the northern side of the disturbance, although the wind shear values are favorable near the low pressure center. Looking further west, the overall environmental conditions become unfavorable for development once you reach about 60 West Longitude.

It’s possible that we could see some development of Invest 94-L between today and Tuesday due to the favorable conditions, however, this system will find itself in an unfavorable environment by Wednesday leading to an end to any development.

Invest 94-L is expected to move through the southern Leeward Islands and the northern Windward Islands on Wednesday bringing squally weather to a large part of the Lesser Antilles during Wednesday and Wednesday night.

Once Invest 94-L reaches the eastern Caribbean on Thursday, it will likely fall apart.

Model Track Forecast:

Satellite Imagery:

Area Of Disturbed Weather Will Move Across The Northern Gulf Mid To Late Week: It appears quite possible that a small piece of Invest 93L will move back into the northeastern Gulf by about Wednesday and then move westward across the northern Gulf during the late parts of this week.

The environmental conditions do not look favorable for development due to some marginally strong wind shear values and dry air. This means that I don’t think that we’ll see any sort of development from this disturbance.

One thing that this disturbance will do is enhance the rainfall potential along much of the northern Gulf Coast, especially during the middle and later parts of this week. Rain totals of 2 to 4 inches look likely along much of the northern Gulf Coast. Some of this rain may reach the upper Texas coast by this weekend.


Tropical Disturbance Located Near The West Coast Of Africa: Another area of disturbed weather is now moving near the west coast of Africa. This disturbance will push into the far eastern Tropical Atlantic by tonight or Tuesday. This disturbance is then expected to head westward across the eastern Tropical Atlantic during the middle and later parts of this week.

A look at the environmental conditions across the eastern and central Tropical Atlantic reveals that the wind shear values are marginally favorable for development. This is probably why the model guidance aren’t too interested in forecasting development of this disturbance. That said, Invest 94-L located well to the west of this disturbance is likely to moisten up the atmosphere & because of this, this particular disturbance may try to develop during the second half of this week into this weekend as it heads from the eastern Tropical Atlantic into the central Tropical Atlantic. Something to watch, just in case.

Whether we see any development or not from this particular disturbance, it will probably bring a round of squally weather to the Lesser Antilles early next week.

The next tropical weather discussion will be issued on Tuesday.

https://crownweather.com/invest-94-l-located-700-miles-ese-of-the-lesser-antilles-likely-will-not-develop-as-it-heads-for-the-islands-of-the-eastern-caribbean-northern-gulf-disturbance-will-bring-enhanced-rainfall-to-the-nor/