Bay Of Campeche & Southwestern Gulf Of Mexico Tropical Development Possible By The Middle Part Of This Week: Satellite imagery this afternoon indicated that we have an area of disturbed weather that’s taken shape from the northwestern Caribbean westward to the Yucatan Peninsula.
It is expected that a broad low pressure system will develop over the Bay of Campeche late Monday into Tuesday. This low pressure system is expected to head westward or west-northwestward as it’s guided by a large upper level high pressure system over the northeastern United States.
As this low pressure system heads towards the western Gulf of Mexico, it may find itself in an environment that’s favorable for development into a tropical depression or a low-end tropical storm. How far north in latitude this system travels is still somewhat uncertain with guidance such as the GFS model showing a track right towards the Texas-Mexico border area. Other forecast guidance such as the European model is showing a track that takes this system towards eastern Mexico near Tampico.
Any tropical system, whether it’s a tropical depression or a low-end tropical storm, will end up coming ashore somewhere between Tampico, Mexico and Brownsville, Texas by about Thursday.
Heavy Rain With Very Significant Flash Flooding Tuesday Through Friday Along The Entire Texas Coast & The Southwestern & South-Central Louisiana Coast: Either way, heavy rain with the threat for flash flooding, some of it quite significant, is going to be a big time problem along the Texas coast into coastal parts of southwestern Louisiana beginning on Tuesday and continuing all the day until late Friday or even Saturday.
Rain totals now look to range from 4 to 6 inches along the south-central and southwestern Louisiana coast to 8 to 12 inches with locally higher amounts along the entire Texas coast. It cannot be emphasized enough that flash flooding is very likely in an area from Brownsville, Texas to Cameron, Louisiana and some of this flash flooding could be extremely serious and quite significant.
In addition to this, hazardous seas, rip currents and very rough surf looks likely throughout much of this coming week along the entire Texas coast.
Southwestern North Atlantic Tropical Development Possible By The Middle Part Of This Week: As I mentioned in my update yesterday, I’m now watching the southwestern North Atlantic in the area to the east of the Bahamas for possible tropical development by about the middle part of this week.
An area of low pressure is expected to try to form to the east of the Bahamas by about Tuesday as energy and moisture is left behind at the tail end of a departing frontal boundary. A big upper level high pressure system us expected to build to the north of this system over the northeastern United States, which will trap this system and send it westward. This is a classic weather setup for tropical development and it’s something that I’m going to be keeping close tabs on throughout this coming week.
One thing to note is that the weather forecast guidance has backed off some on their forecast intensity of this system.
The GFS model shows a track of what it shows to be barely a tropical depression to head for central Florida by Thursday.
The Canadian model doesn’t even show this system becoming a depression and instead forecasts a disturbance to head for the South Carolina coast near Myrtle Beach by about Friday.
The latest European model also no longer shows this system becoming a depression and instead forecasts a trough of low pressure to come ashore along the southeastern North Carolina coast by Friday.
It should be noted that this is going to be a very small system in overall size and the model guidance can have a hard time seeing a system this small. Because of this, the model guidance can sometimes under forecast the strength of a system like this. So, even though the model guidance are showing very weak or no development, they could be totally wrong and could be missing this system. Something to keep in mind.
Here Are My Thoughts: The environmental conditions look somewhat favorable for development of any low pressure system that forms to the east of the Bahamas by the middle part of this week. Given the classic weather pattern setup for tropical development over the southwestern North Atlantic, I do think that we need to keep an eye on this system, especially since it’ll be headed towards the US Southeast coast.
With the position of the upper level high pressure system over the northeastern United States, the steering currents are such that any system, whether its a disturbance or a depression or tropical storm would be guided towards an area between the east coast of Florida and the Lowcountry of South Carolina by about Thursday or Friday.
At this point, I think that there’s about a 20 percent chance for tropical development around the middle part of this week in the area to the east of the Bahamas.
It’s something to certainly keep an eye on and I’ll definitely keep you updated throughout this coming week.
The next tropical weather discussion will be issued on Monday.