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Tropical Storm Isaias: We have Tropical Storm Isaias that’s located in the southwestern Gulf today. Despite looking quite strong on satellite imagery with consistent deep convection occurring, reconnaissance aircraft have found a system that’s barely a tropical storm. Reports from reconnaissance aircraft indicate that Isaias has a broad circulation & it appears that it’s being sheared.

A look at the environmental conditions around Isaias reveals that the storm is being affected by about 10-20 knots or so of wind shear. I do think that we may end up seeing Isaias be impacted by this wind shear throughout today as it moves towards the east and east-northeast. As we get into Thursday, Isaias is expected to turn more towards the northeast and align itself with the upper-level wind flow. This could lead to low net wind shear environment over the storm & lead to more substantial strengthening during Thursday into Friday.

A look at the model guidance reveals how tricky the forecast is with Isaias & especially with its intensity forecast. Some of the higher resolution model guidance have shown Isaias not getting all that strong due to the strong wind shear really impacting the storm. Other model guidance show Isaias taking advantage of the southwesterly wind shear as its northeast path would lead to strong ventilation of the storm leading to substantial strengthening to not only a hurricane, but potentially a major hurricane before reaching the northern Gulf coast.

The range of possible tracks of the storm shown by model guidance has tightened up significantly with most guidance now showing Isaias making landfall somewhere between Pascagoula and Pensacola on Friday night. This would place the worst of the hurricane conditions right across southern Alabama and across the western Florida Panhandle from Friday afternoon through Friday night and into Saturday morning.

Here Are My Thoughts: I do think that we will very likely see Isaias become a hurricane, probably by sometime on Thursday. I’m not convinced that it will strengthen to a major hurricane as I think that there’s going to be too much wind shear to allow for that much strengthening. My thinking is that Isaias will peak at between 90 and 100 mph later Thursday or early Friday.

As for my thoughts on potential landfall – I think that the strong southwesterly upper-level winds will cause Isaias to head towards the northeast rather than the north-northeast or north on Thursday into Friday. Because of this, my thinking is for the storm to come ashore across southern Alabama or the western Florida Panhandle during Friday night as a 80-95 mph hurricane.

For Those Of You Along The Northern Gulf Coast, Especially Southern Alabama & The Florida Panhandle – Be aware that a hurricane landfall is now looking likely across southern Alabama and the western Florida Panhandle on Friday night. I strongly urge everyone across southern Alabama and the Florida Panhandle to keep checking back often for the latest updates.

This means that hurricane force winds will likely occur across southern Alabama and across the western Florida Panhandle during Friday night. Tropical storm force winds look like they will affect areas of the Florida Panhandle as far east as Apalachicola and possibly the Big Bend area of northwest Florida.

A storm surge of up to at least 6-8 feet looks likely along and to the east of where Isaias makes landfall. This means that storm surge related flooding looks likely across southern Alabama and across the entire Florida Panhandle during Friday, Friday night and Saturday morning.

Heavy rain with the threat for flooding is also expected from Isaias across southern Alabama and across the Florida Panhandle. This is going to be a fast-moving storm & because of this, excessive amounts of rain are not expected. Still though, rain totals of 4 to 8 inches are expected from late this week into this weekend across southern and western Alabama and across the Florida Panhandle.

Also, tornadoes could be a big time threat when Isaias makes landfall. There is going to be strong amounts of wind shear occurring on the eastern side of the storm & because of this, tornadoes will be a definite threat across the Florida Panhandle and across southern Alabama on Friday night and Saturday.

I am keeping very close tabs on the progress of Isaias and will continue to have updates for you as needed.

Invest 92-L has organized enough this afternoon to be classified as a tropical depression & thus we now have Tropical Depression #9 over the southwestern Gulf. TD 9 is very likely to strengthen quite a bit in the coming days and because of this, it will likely become a tropical storm (name will be Isaias) as soon as later tonight or during Wednesday.

The environmental conditions around the depression are favorable for strengthening and because of this, I suspect we will see it not only become a tropical storm, but very possibly a hurricane as soon as Thursday night or early Friday. Also, the strengthening of this system should cause it to be steered more by the southwesterly upper-level winds & because of this, it should travel in a north-northeast to northeast direction. This could lead to this system to make landfall somewhere along the coast of southern Alabama and the western Florida Panhandle on Friday evening. This could be a fast moving storm & because of this, it may weaken little before making landfall. Because of this, I am now forecasting this system to come ashore as a hurricane with between 80 and 95 mph maximum winds along the Alabama or western Florida Panhandle coastline.

For Those Of You Along The Northern Gulf Coast From Louisiana To The Florida Panhandle – While the exact details on how this system will impact the northern Gulf coast still need to be figured out, I think there is the increasing likelihood for a hurricane to come ashore by Friday evening. I urge everyone from Louisiana to the Florida Panhandle to check back often for the latest updates.

I do still think that the biggest hazard from this system will probably be heavy rain and the threat for flooding along the northern Gulf coast from southern Louisiana through the Florida Panhandle. Additional rainfall totals of 4 to 8 inches are likely, especially during later this week into the holiday weekend. Isolated rain totals of 10 inches or more are a possibility over the western Florida Panhandle.

The next potential hazard from this system will be storm surge, as well as the likelihood of tropical storm to hurricane force winds across the central and eastern Gulf coast. The higher coastal flood and wind threats from this system would potentially occur on the eastern side of it. This means that areas from southern Alabama and the Florida Panhandle to the west coast of Florida may end up seeing the worst of the weather from this system, even if it’s weakening at landfall. This could include a storm surge of up to 6 feet and winds that gust up to over 60 mph at times during Friday into Saturday. Wind gusts in the hurricane force range could occur across southern Alabama and across the western and central Florida Panhandle during Friday afternoon into Friday night.

Finally, there will very likely be the potential for tornadoes on Friday into Saturday across areas to the east of where this system makes landfall. This means that possibly the Panhandle of Florida and parts of the central and northern Florida Peninsula may have a potential for tornadoes on Friday into Saturday.

I am keeping very close tabs on the progress of TD 9 and will have many more updates as needed.

Invest 92-L Located Over The Southwestern Gulf: Invest 92-L, which is located in the southwestern Gulf, is very clearly organizing today. Satellite imagery indicates that there is robust convection occurring with this system & it appears that the convection is organizing.

Today and tomorrow is going to be important in terms of how much Invest 92-L organizes. The quicker this system organizes and strengthens over the next 24-36 hours, the further east it’ll track putting it in a more favorable environment for strengthening. It also would mean Invest 92-L would head for the Alabama coastline and the Florida Panhandle instead of further west towards coastal Mississippi or coastal Louisiana.

A look at the environmental conditions around Invest 92-L indicate a favorable environment for development and strengthening. This includes wind shear values of 10-20 knots, some extremely warm Gulf waters, an established low pressure system & plenty of upper-level divergence. To me, this says to me that Invest 92-L will very likely become a tropical storm as soon as late Wednesday or Thursday. It is then possible that this system could become a hurricane by Friday just before it heads for the northern Gulf coast.

A Look At The Latest Model Guidance reveals that guidance such as the Google Deep Mind model and the European AIFS model are showing a stronger system heading towards the Alabama coastline or the Florida Panhandle with a landfall on Friday night. Also, a large majority of the ensemble members do show it being a hurricane at landfall.

On the other hand, models such as the GFS model and the European model show a weaker system which travels slowly northward in a much more hostile environment. This would lead this system to be, at most, a very sloppy and wet tropical storm & come ashore in southern Louisiana and southern Mississippi on Sunday.

One thing to note about these two model guidance scenarios is that the faster this system travels in the Gulf, the less wind shear it’ll feel & the stronger it could be at landfall. Also, a faster moving system would head for the Florida Panhandle or southern Alabama while a slower moving system would head for southern Louisiana or southern Mississippi.

Here Are My Thoughts: I do think that it is extremely likely that Invest 92-L will end up being our next tropical storm of the season. I expect it to probably become a tropical storm as soon as late Wednesday or during Thursday.

I suspect that for the next 2-3 days or so, we’ll see this system slowly move towards the east or northeast over the southern Gulf, all while organizing and strengthening. This means that we probably will have a strengthening tropical storm or maybe even a low-end hurricane over the southern Gulf by the time we get into Friday.

As we move through the day on Friday, this system is likely to speed up in its forward motion and head towards the northern Gulf coast. This is due to the likelihood of an upper-level trough of low pressure that’ll be located over the western Gulf to pick it up and send it towards the north or northeast and for the northern Gulf coast.

The question then becomes how fast will this system be moving when it’s headed for the northern Gulf coast. A faster moving system would likely be steered more towards the northeast and head for southern Alabama or the Florida Panhandle. Also, a faster moving system would end up probably making landfall as a upper-end tropical storm or even a low-end hurricane on Friday night. Meanwhile, a slower moving system would end up being steered more towards the north and head for southern Louisiana or southern Mississippi. Also, a slower moving system would be significantly impacted by some very strong wind shear over the northern Gulf & would probably come in as a very weak tropical storm, at most.

Given that Invest 92-L seems to be already organizing fairly quickly, I think the idea of it heading quickly towards southern Alabama or the Florida Panhandle seems most possible right now. While I think this system may end up becoming a hurricane at some point on Friday, I do think it may end up weakening a bit just before landfall leading it to be a tropical storm when it comes ashore on the Florida Panhandle or across southern Alabama.

For Those Of You Along The Northern Gulf Coast From Louisiana To The Florida Panhandle – While the exact details on how this system will impact the northern Gulf coast still need to be figured out, I think there is the very real possibility for a moderate to strong tropical storm to come ashore by Friday night or Saturday morning. I urge everyone from Louisiana to the Florida Panhandle to check back often for the latest updates.

I do think that the biggest hazard from this system will probably be heavy rain and the threat for flooding along the northern Gulf coast from southern Louisiana through the Florida Panhandle. Additional rainfall totals of 4 to 8 inches are likely, especially during later this week into the holiday weekend. Isolated rain totals of 10 inches or more are a possibility over the western Florida Panhandle.

The next potential hazard from this system will be coastal flooding and the possibility for tropical storm force winds across a large part of the central and eastern Gulf coast. The higher coastal flood and wind threats from this system would potentially occur on the eastern side of it. This means that areas from southern Alabama and the Florida Panhandle to the west coast of Florida may end up seeing the worst of the weather from this system, even if it’s weakening at landfall. This could include a storm surge of up to 6 feet and winds that gust up to at least 60 mph at times during Friday into Saturday.

Finally, there will very likely be the potential for tornadoes on Friday into Saturday across areas to the east of where this system makes landfall. This means that possibly the Panhandle of Florida and parts of the central and northern Florida Peninsula may have a potential for tornadoes on Friday into Saturday.

The Bottom Line Is That there is the likelihood of a tropical storm or perhaps even a hurricane approaching the northern Gulf coast between Louisiana and the Florida Panhandle by Friday into Saturday. It’s still too soon to tell exactly how strong this system will be as it heads for the Gulf coast, but at this point I think we’re looking at either a tropical storm or a low-end hurricane at landfall.

As I already mentoned, heavy rain and flooding looks to be the big threat with this system, especially along and to the east of where this system makes landfall. The heaviest rain looks to get started along the northern Gulf coast as soon as Friday and continue into the weekend. Heavy rain is also likely to extend inland into much of the southeastern United States throughout this weekend.

I will be keeping very close tabs on the progress of Invest 92-L and will have many more updates as needed.

It now looks very likely that we will see the development of a tropical depression and very likely a tropical storm in the southwestern Gulf a little later this week. Weather analysis today revealed that there is a frontal boundary now draped across the northern Gulf. An area of low pressure seems to be trying to form over the southwestern Gulf & this is the low pressure system that’s probably going to become our tropical depression and then tropical storm a little later this week.

A look at the current environmental conditions reveals that the wind shear values are very low across the southern and southwestern Gulf & this will lead to a favorable environment for this system to develop this week.

A Look At The Latest Model Guidance reveals that some of the guidance are pretty robust in the amount of strengthening they forecast this system to undergo by late this week and during the weekend. That said, not all of the model guidance agree with this & some show this system just becoming a very sloppy and wet tropical storm, at most.

On one end of the spectrum we have the European model guidance and their ensemble members that are showing this system to gradually become a tropical storm by about Friday over the southwestern Gulf. From there, the European model guidance shows this system to head northward this weekend and come ashore along the central Gulf coast as a weak, sloppy and very wet tropical storm on about Sunday.

On the other end of the spectrum is the Google Deep Mind ensemble model guidance which are showing a stronger system. They indicate this system becoming a tropical storm by about Thursday and then forecast this system to head for the Florida Panhandle or the Alabama coastline as a strong tropical storm or even a hurricane. The reason these models are stronger is due to it not being impacted as much by strong wind shear over the northern Gulf.

Here Are My Thoughts: As I already mentioned, I think that it is extremely likely that we will see a tropical depression and very probably a tropical storm form in the southwestern Gulf sometime between Wednesday and Friday. I put the chances of this occurring at around 90 percent.

Now, where could this tropical system go and how strong could it get? It is expected that an upper-level trough of low pressure will be in place over the eastern United States throughout this week right through this weekend. This upper-level trough of low pressure will pull our tropical system north or northeastward towards the northern Gulf Coast somewhere between southern Louisiana and the Florida Panhandle by this weekend.

The question then becomes what will the environmental conditions be like over the northern Gulf late this week and this weekend. That upper-level trough is likely to produce some strong amounts of wind shear over the northern Gulf. This means, in all likelihood, this is going to be a highly sheared, very messy and very wet tropical storm that stays pretty weak. This is what I’m thinking in terms of a scenario right now.

There is, however, another scenario and that is this tropical system travels in a more northeasterly direction and aligns itself with the upper-level winds. If this happened, it would lead to a net low wind shear environment for this system. In this case, we’d see this system strengthen into an upper-end tropical storm or even a hurricane before coming ashore on the Florida Panhandle or the Alabama coast on about Saturday. At this point, I think the chances for this outcome occurring is very low, but it is one that does need to be watched, just in case.

For Those Of You Along The Northern Gulf Coast, this is a system that definitely needs to be watched closely throughout this week & I will have all sorts of updates for you as needed.

At the minimum, I think that we’re probably looking at a large, messy and very wet system that brings quite a bit of rain to much of the northern Gulf Coast throughout this weekend. This would lead to the threat for flooding for many along the northern Gulf Coast from southern Louisiana eastward to the Florida Panhandle.

Now, should this system come in stronger than a weak tropical storm, then we’d have to watch out for the possibility of strong winds, some storm surge and a lot of rain along the northern Gulf Coast this weekend. Again, I’m leaning much more towards this system being a weak system & not a strong one.

Either way, I will be keeping very close tabs on this system and will have many more updates for you in the coming days.

It appears that the chances of tropical development occurring in the southern Gulf later this coming week have increased some as compared to even yesterday. Latest weather data as of today seems to be pointing towards the possibility of a tropical storm or even a sub-tropical storm to form over the southern Gulf during the second half of this week & then heading northward or northeastward towards the northern Gulf coast by next weekend. This could lead to a large & very wet storm to impact much of the northern and parts of the eastern Gulf Coast by next weekend.

The catalyst for this potential tropical development is going to be a low pressure system forming near the tail end of a frontal boundary that’ll be draped across the Gulf during this week. It appears that this low pressure system will form over the southern Gulf by midweek within an environment that could be favorable for development due to low wind shear and some very warm ocean water temperatures. This is why there has been an uptick in the chances for tropical development by the various weather forecast guidance.

A look at the most recent model guidance reveals that guidance such as the European model shows a very wet and elongated sub-tropical storm that brings very heavy rain to the northern Gulf Coast by next weekend. Other guidance such as the GFS model shows a much more cohesive storm system that becomes a tropical storm over the southern Gulf by late this week. The GFS model then forecasts this system to head for the central Gulf Coast as a tropical storm by next weekend.

The Google Deep Mind ensemble model is now showing about a 50 percent chance for tropical development over the southern Gulf as early as Thursday. A majority of the ensemble members then show a track that takes this system towards the northern Gulf coast by next weekend.

Meanwhile, the European ensemble model guidance is actually showing an 80 percent chance for a tropical depression to form over the southern Gulf late this week. It should be noted that 40 percent of those members are forecasting this system to become a tropical storm. A majority of the ensemble members then show this system to head for the central Gulf Coast by next weekend.

Here Are My Thoughts: One thing that’s for sure is that we will definitely see a low pressure system form over the southern Gulf as soon as late Tuesday or Wednesday. The environment over the southern Gulf definitely looks to be favorable for tropical development of this low pressure system. A look at the current wind shear environment over the Gulf reveals that there is only 5-15 knots of wind shear occurring over much of the central and southern Gulf and I expect to see these low wind shear conditions to continue throughout this coming week. Because of this, I do think that there’s a pretty high chance now that we will see tropical development occur in the southern Gulf between Wednesday and Friday. I put the chances of tropical development at about 50-60 percent right now.

Now, where could this tropical system go? It is expected that an upper-level trough of low pressure will be in place over the eastern United States throughout this coming week right through next weekend. It appears that this upper-level trough will pull this tropical system northward or northeastward causing it to head for the northern Gulf Coast somewhere between southern Louisiana and the Florida Panhandle by next weekend.

The question then becomes what will the environmental conditions be like over the northern Gulf late this week and next weekend. It is possible that there could be some very strong amounts of wind shear to be in place over the northern Gulf & if this happens, it would cause this tropical system to weaken and transform into a very large, very messy and very wet non-tropical low pressure system by the time it reaches the central Gulf Coast. Now, there is the possibility that the wind shear values could be lower and if this occurs, it could mean a system that comes ashore along the central Gulf Coast as a tropical storm instead next weekend.

The potential for southern Gulf tropical development will be something to definitely keep an eye on throughout this week and I will have all sorts of updates for you as needed. At the minimum, I think that we’re probably looking at a large, messy and very wet system that brings quite a bit of rain to much of the northern Gulf Coast next weekend. It should be mentioned that if this system does come in as a tropical storm, then we’d be looking at gusty winds & very rough surf to accompany the very heavy rain.

Even before this potential tropical system heads towards the northern Gulf Coast, that frontal boundary is likely to bring quite a bit of rain this week along the immediate coast of the northern Gulf coast as well as across the northern and central Florida Peninsula It does appear that the heaviest of the rain with amounts of 3 to 6 inches looks to occur this week across the Florida Panhandle and across northern and central parts of the Florida Peninsula. So, the additional heavy rain that may occur with this potential tropical system next weekend could lead to flood issues along the northern Gulf Coast.

An area of low pressure is expected to form along the tail end of a stalled frontal boundary over the southern Gulf during next week. There is a very low possibility that this low pressure system could develop into a tropical system later next week into next weekend over the southern Gulf. It seems more likely that this low pressure system may end up remaining non-tropical in nature.

A look at the model guidance reveals that the chances that they are showing for tropical development seems to be decreasing as compared to what they were showing over the last couple of days. The Google Deep Mind model now shows about a 25 percent chance for tropical development of the southern Gulf low pressure system and the European ensemble model guidance is showing about a 30-40 percent chance of development in the southern Gulf late next week and next weekend.

One big reason why the model guidance are showing a lower chance for tropical development is likely due to the likelihood that there will be some very strong wind shear located to its north across the northern Gulf. This leads to anything that tries to develop to immediately run into a very unfavorable environment. So, even if we do see a tropical system develop in the southern Gulf later next week and next weekend, it would be short-lived.

My Thinking As Of Today Is that we will definitely see a low pressure system fester in the southern Gulf during next week. It may end up being in an environment that’s favorable enough for some development into a tropical system later next week and next weekend. As of right now, I’m putting the chances of tropical development at around 30 percent or so.

Now, where could this system head? It is possible that an upper level trough of low pressure could dig into the eastern United States during next weekend. Should this occur, it could lead to this system to be pulled towards the north or northeast and head towards the central or eastern US Gulf Coast. Even if this occurs, any tropical system would likely transform back into a very messy non-tropical low pressure system that brings mostly heavy rain to the central and eastern US Gulf Coast during next weekend.

Even before this low pressure system heads north and northeastward towards the central and eastern Gulf, that frontal boundary is likely to bring quite a bit of rain to the northern Gulf Coast this weekend. Rain amounts of 3 to 6 inches are likely this weekend across southeastern Louisiana, southern Mississippi, southern Alabama and across the Florida Panhandle. The heavy rain potential then looks to sink southeastward into the central and northern Florida Peninsula during next week as that frontal boundary sinks southward.

It appears that the southern Gulf might be an area to watch for possible tropical mischief during next week. A strong cold front is expected to dive southward through the southern United States during the early part of next week. This front is then expected to stall out over the Gulf during the second half of next week. What then looks to possibly occur is that an area of low pressure could form near the tail end of this front & try to spin up into a tropical system over the southern Gulf during the middle and later parts of next week.

A look at the model guidance reveals that most of them do show hints at potential tropical mischief over the southern Gulf next week. The Google Deep Mind ensemble model seems to suggest that there’s about a 30 percent chance for tropical development by about the middle part of next week over the southern Gulf. Meanwhile the European ensemble model guidance is showing about a 50 percent chance for tropical development by about the second half of next week.

Here Are My Thoughts: At this point, I do think that the possibility of tropical development in the southern Gulf is one that we do need to entertain. The combination of a low pressure system forming near the tail end of a front interacting with energy and moisture in the area and an environment that looks potentially favorable for development is one that can easily lead to tropical development.

So, what I think might occur is that we’ll see a low pressure system form near the tail end of the frontal boundary during the second half of next week. This low pressure system looks to form over the southern Gulf & I do think that if it sits over the southern Gulf long enough, it’ll easily be able to transform into a tropical system. The chances of tropical development in the southern Gulf later next week looks to me to be around 40 percent or so.

Now, where could this possible tropical system head? It is possible that an upper level trough of low pressure could dig into the eastern United States by next weekend. Should this occur, it could lead to any tropical system to be pulled towards the north or northeast and head towards the central or eastern US Gulf Coast. Alternatively, if this upper-level trough ends up weaker than currently forecast, it could miss picking up this possible tropical system & thus it would be left meandering over the Bay of Campeche or the southern Gulf.

At this point, this is something to just keep an eye on & is nothing to be overly worried or concerned about.

The big weather story this week is likely going to be the significant flooding that Hurricane Polo will produce across the Desert Southwestern US & across the I-35 corridor of Oklahoma and Texas.

Hurricane Polo is expected to move across the Baja during this afternoon and tonight and then move inland into northwestern Mexico during the day on Tuesday. It is then expected that Polo will push a ton of moisture into the Desert Southwest and then into Texas and the rest of the Southern Plains states. This will lead to the potential for significant amounts of rainfall & the very real likelihood of significant amounts of flooding.

The first area of concern will be across eastern Arizona and across much of New Mexico where copious amounts of rain is already pushing into parts of Arizona. This heavy rain will expand across the rest of Arizona and across much of New Mexico during this afternoon and tonight. Heavy rain is then expected to continue through Tuesday, especially across eastern Arizona and across a large part of New Mexico.

Rain totals of 2 to 4 inches will be common across the eastern half of Arizona and across a large part of New Mexico. Local amounts of up to 4 to 6 inches are a strong possibility, especially across New Mexico. It should be noted that the Desert Southwest has already seen quite a bit of rain thus far this month & because of this, I have concerns that we are looking at a significant flood event for some areas. All interests across Arizona and New Mexico need to keep close tabs on this potential significant & very serious flood event.

As For Oklahoma & Texas, Especially Along The I-35 Corridor: The moisture from Polo is expected to combine with a frontal boundary to produce repeating rounds of heavy rain from the Hill Country of Texas into North Texas and southern Oklahoma. The worst of the rain looks to occur during Wednesday and Thursday & it appears that the heaviest of the rain will be concentrated right near I-35.

Rain totals are expected to range between 4 and 8 inches from just south and southwest of San Antonio through Waco & Dallas and up to near Tulsa between Wednesday and Friday morning. It should be noted that locally much higher rainfall totals of up to 8 to 12 inches are a possibility somewhere along the Texas and Oklahoma parts of I-35.

Those of you in the Texas Hill Country and the Metroplex need to very closely monitor the weather forecasts surrounding the potential for very serious flooding.

Elsewhere: There are no areas of significant interest across the Atlantic, Caribbean or Gulf. Yes, we do have Invest 91-L that’s located well to the east-northeast of Bermuda, but this system poses no threat to any land areas, even if it does develop into a depression or tropical storm this week.

There are some signals in the data that suggest the southern Gulf or the area around the Yucatan Peninsula might be an area to watch for development between October 6 and October 12.

The reason why I’m watching this area is due to the fact that an area of low pressure might try to form near the tail end of a frontal boundary. Should this occur, we could possibly see some sort of development occur. That said, the chances for tropical development are, at most, 20 percent during this time period. Something to watch, but it’s definitely nothing to be concerned about.

Now, if we don’t see any sort of development next week, there’s the very real chance that we end this hurricane season with zero Atlantic hurricanes. It is expected that a strong sub-tropical jet stream will drop southward towards the Gulf over the next couple of weeks & this would likely end the hurricane season for the United States. We would then transition into what’s likely to be a very wet and very stormy winter along the Gulf Coast and across Florida.

A Nor’Easter is expected to impact Southern New England, New York City, Long Island and New Jersey throughout this weekend.

An area of low pressure is now taking shape to the east of the Mid-Atlantic coastline. It is expected that this low pressure system will strengthen as it slowly moves northward before stalling just south of Long Island on Saturday. From here, this low pressure system is expected to head westward reaching the south coast of New Jersey by Sunday afternoon. Ultimately this low pressure system will weaken and head eastward away from the coastline by early next week.

Winds: Wind gusts of up to 50 to 60 mph will be common this weekend across coastal areas from New Jersey and Long Island northward into coastal Southern New England.

Given the fact that most trees are still fully leafed, these strong wind gusts will likely cause some downed trees and powerlines leading to at least some scattered power outages throughout this weekend.

Further inland, wind gusts of up to 40 to 50 mph are expected this weekend across inland parts of Southern New England, southeastern New York and New Jersey & again, these type of wind gusts could lead to snapped tree limbs and cause some scattered power outages.

Coastal Flooding: The combination of persistent, strong onshore winds, high surf and higher than average astronomical high tides will lead to moderate to major coastal flooding at the time of high tide along the Mid-Atlantic coast.

The worst of the coastal flooding is expected to occur this weekend across coastal Virginia, coastal Maryland, coastal Delaware & along the entire New Jersey coastline. Major coastal flooding looks very likely across these areas.

Further north, minor to possibly moderate coastal flooding at the time of high tide is expected over the next few days across all of coastal New England into Long Island and New York City.

Rainfall: Heavy rain is expected throughout this weekend across much of the Mid-Atlantic states into central and southern New England.

1 to 3 inches of total rainfall can be expected across inland parts of Southern New England and across inland parts of the Mid-Atlantic states.

Closer to the coast, rain totals of 3 to 6 inches are a good possibility across coastal New England & in particular across Cape Cod & coastal Rhode Island. 3 to 5 inches of total rainfall is expected along the Jersey Shore and across a large part of Long Island.

Hurricane Nolo is located about 300 miles or so to the south of the Big Island of Hawaii & is expected to pass to within 150 miles of the Big Island as an intensifying hurricane on Saturday. Nolo is then expected to turn sharply to the west and pass to the south of the rest of the Hawaiian Islands late this weekend into early next week.

The good news is that the forecast track of Nolo has trended further south & away from Hawaii & because of this, it has lowered the risk of the core of the hurricane directly impacting the Big Island and Maui.

The bad news is that even though Nolo will be passing further south than previously thought, it will still bring extremely heavy rainfall and catastrophic flooding to the Big Island and Maui throughout this weekend. Areas most susceptible to the catastrophic flooding will include the east-facing slopes of the Big Island where as much as 25 inches of rain will accumulate this weekend. So, catastrophic flooding and mudslides are expected across the Big Island of Hawaii and Maui throughout this weekend.

In addition, tropical storm conditions are likely to impact the higher terrain of the Big Island and Maui this afternoon through tonight and into part of Saturday. Tropical storm conditions may then affect Oahu and Kauai on Saturday night and Sunday.