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Area Of Disturbed Weather In The Bahamas Continues To Be Watched For Signs Of Possible Development; This Disturbance Will Bring Locally Heavy Rainfall & Gusty Winds To The Bahamas Today Through Thursday & To South & Central Florida Thursday & Friday

Satellite imagery and weather analysis is showing an area of disturbed weather that is located in the Bahamas. This area of disturbed weather is the result of an upper level low pressure system and a surface trough of low pressure that continues to slowly move west-northwestward across the Bahamas. This area of disturbed weather is more »

Severe Thunderstorms With Tornadoes, Damaging Winds & Large Hail Is Likely Across Far North Texas, Southern, Central & Eastern Oklahoma This Afternoon Through This Evening

Summary: Severe thunderstorms are expected to increase in coverage across far northern Texas and across a large part of southern, central and eastern Oklahoma this afternoon and continue into this evening. Tornadoes, damaging winds and large hail are all likely. Details: A stationary front is currently located from north-central Oklahoma into northwest Texas. Along and more »

Area Of Disturbed Weather In The Bahamas Is Being Watched For Possible Development

Satellite imagery and weather analysis is showing a gradually developing area of disturbed weather that is located in the Bahamas. This area of disturbed weather is associated with a surface trough of low pressure that is slowly moving west-northwestward across the Bahamas. An analysis of the environmental conditions around the area of disturbed weather reveals more »

Late May & Early June Tropical Development Possible In The Caribbean Or The Western Atlantic

I know I mentioned in previous tropical weather discussions that I would begin posting regular updates for the tropics beginning on May 1. Given that the chances for Caribbean or Western Atlantic tropical development during late May into early June appear to be slowly increasing, I have decided to begin sending out regular tropical weather more »

Severe Thunderstorms With Damaging Winds & A Few Tornadoes Are Expected Across Northeastern North Carolina, Southeastern, Eastern & Northern Virginia, Maryland, Delaware, Southeastern Pennsylvania & Southern New Jersey This Afternoon Through This Evening

Summary: Severe thunderstorms are expected across the Mid-Atlantic States this afternoon through this evening. The greatest threat for severe weather will be across eastern Virginia, southeast Pennsylvania, and parts of Maryland, New Jersey and Delaware. Damaging wind gusts and a few tornadoes will be a threat. Details: A cold front is currently moving eastward from more »

A Period Of Significant Severe Weather Looks Possible From Mid-May To Early June Across The United States; Early Season Tropical Development Also Possible During Late May & Early June

A Period Of Significant Severe Weather Looks Possible From Mid-May To Early June: There are strong hints in the overall seasonal data that suggest the period from about May 15 to June 10 may be extremely active in terms of severe weather across the United States. One feature that will have an influence is an more »

Tropical Development Is A Slight Possibility During The Mid and Late Parts Of Next Week Near The Bahamas

I think that there is the possibility that we will see some sort of tropical development during the month of May and it is possible that it could occur as soon as next week in the area around the Bahamas. With that said, even though some of the model guidance, including the GFS and European more »

Post-Storm Analysis By The National Hurricane Center Reveals Hurricane Michael Was A Category 5 At Landfall On The Florida Panhandle

This was cut & paste from the media release from NOAA ( https://www.noaa.gov/media-release/hurricane-michael-upgraded-to-category-5-at-time-of-us-landfall ) Scientists at NOAA’s National Hurricane Center conducted a detailed post-storm analysis on all the data available for Hurricane Michael and have determined that the storm’s estimated intensity at landfall was 140 knots (160 mph). This final wind intensity is a 5 knot (5 more »

2019 Atlantic, Caribbean & Gulf Of Mexico Hurricane Season Forecast (Issued March 24)

Summary: Activity during the 2019 Atlantic Hurricane Season is likely to be influenced by building El Nino conditions. This potentially means a lower than average number of storms, HOWEVER, this does not necessarily mean that the threat for a tropical storm or hurricane impact is lower as there is data supporting the idea of at more »

Sub-Tropical Development Possible Late Next Week Between The Bahamas & Bermuda

A large majority of the model guidance, including the GFS, Canadian, European and UKMET model, are strongly hinting at the potential for at least some sort of sub-tropical development in the area of the southwest North Atlantic between the Bahamas and Bermuda late next week. The forecast evolution of this possible development will stem from more »



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