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Tropical Or Sub-Tropical Development Possible Late This Week & This Weekend From The Bahamas To Near The Southeastern Coast Of The United States

Some sort of tropical or sub-tropical development is possible late this week and this weekend in an area from the Bahamas to near the Southeastern Coast of the United States. The setup that leads to this possible development is a low pressure system that forms in the Bahamas near the tail end of a frontal more »

Quick Update On The Area Of Disturbed Weather In The Northwestern Caribbean

An area of deep thunderstorm activity has developed this morning in the northwestern Caribbean at the tail end of a frontal boundary. This convection looks a lot worse than it actually is as it is being caused by diverging air aloft near the base of a trough of low pressure. Closer analysis shows that there more »

Area Of Disturbed Weather In The Southern Gulf Of Mexico This Weekend Will Bring Locally Heavy Rainfall To South Florida & The Northern Bahamas On Sunday & Monday

A strong cold front is expected to enter the northern Gulf of Mexico this evening and then push southward reaching the central and southern Gulf of Mexico during Sunday. At the tail end of this front, an area of disturbed weather is likely to form over the southern Gulf of Mexico during Saturday before it more »

Area Of Disturbed Weather Will Form In The Southern Gulf Of Mexico This Weekend Bringing Heavy Rainfall To South Florida & The Northern Bahamas

It continues to look likely that an area of disturbed weather will develop at the tail end of a frontal boundary this weekend over the southern Gulf of Mexico. There is the possibility that this disturbed weather could become a tropical system as it moves east-northeastward across south Florida on Sunday and to the north more »

Area Of Disturbed Weather To Form In The Southern Gulf Of Mexico This Weekend With Tropical Development A Possibility

It looks like an area of disturbed weather will form at the tail end of a frontal boundary this weekend over the southern Gulf of Mexico. There is the possibility that this disturbed weather could become a tropical system as it moves east-northeastward. A strong cold front is expected to move well south into the more »

Mid To Late May Tropical Development In Or Around The Caribbean Continues To Look Possible

The Atlantic, Caribbean and Gulf of Mexico are quiet today with no areas of interest in terms of tropical development. In addition, tropical development is not expected across the Atlantic, Caribbean and Gulf of Mexico for at least the next week. As we head towards mid and late May, however, I think that the chances more »

Mid To Late May Tropical Development In The Caribbean Continues To Look Possible; A Very Active 2020 Atlantic Hurricane Season Is Still Expected

As I mentioned on Friday, it looks like there is the possibility for tropical development in or around the Caribbean during mid or late May. There continues to be strong hints in the data that suggests that this will occur. One piece of data that continues to point towards this is the Madden Julian Oscillation. more »

First Tropical Weather Discussion Of The 2020 Hurricane Season – Tropical Development Possible During Mid & Late May In Or Around The Caribbean

As I mentioned to you about a week ago, I wanted to start sending out our regular tropical weather discussions well before the start of the official season for a couple of reasons. The first reason is that I still believe that we will see our first tropical system of the season either during mid-May more »

2020 Hurricane Season Preparation Tips

I wanted to send these various tips out to you as I know many of you are concerned about how hurricane preparations and decisions may be impacted by COVID-19; especially since it continues to look like a very busy hurricane season coming up. In fact, there are signals in the data that suggest we may more »

2020 Atlantic, Caribbean & Gulf Of Mexico Hurricane Season Forecast (Issued March 10)

Summary: I am forecasting above average tropical storm and hurricane season due to a combination of either neutral ENSO conditions or La Nina conditions, an active Western African Monsoon, above average ocean water temperatures and the possibility of lower than average wind shear conditions. There is also the possibility of well above average activity this more »




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