Invest 97-L Located Over The Eastern Atlantic: Satellite imagery and weather analysis reveals that a low pressure system located over the eastern Atlantic about halfway between the coast of Africa and the Cabo Verde Islands is becoming better organized today. This disturbance is labeled Invest 97-L by the National Hurricane Center.
A look at satellite imagery today shows that while the overall circulation with Invest 97-L is becoming better organized, the convection with it is still disorganized. That said, Invest 97-L is very close to becoming a depression and I suspect it may get that upgrade as soon as later today or on Monday.
Invest 97-L is currently moving in a northwesterly direction and because of this, it will likely bring quite a bit of squally weather to the Cabo Verde Islands starting this afternoon and lasting through tonight and Monday.
Let me discuss what the model guidance is showing and then go into my analysis of what may occur with Invest 97.
Model Guidance: The track model guidance are in good agreement in showing Invest 97-L tracking in a northwesterly direction over the next day or so before it turns back to the west. A majority of the track model guidance then shows Invest 97-L staying well north of the Lesser Antilles by Friday and Saturday with little or no impact to any of the eastern or northeastern Caribbean.
The track model guidance has the support of all of the ensemble model guidance in which a large majority of the members showing a track that keeps Invest 97-L well north of the Lesser Antilles by Saturday.
Beyond this, the guidance diverges quite a bit once we get into next week (week of August 18) and this should absolutely be expected for a 7-plus day forecast. The range in the ensemble guidance by next Monday, August 18 ranges from a storm in the Bahamas that could threaten and impact the East Coast of the United States all the way to a storm curving northward towards Bermuda and then into the open Atlantic.
I want to reiterate what I wrote a couple of days ago, be very wary of anyone posting a model map on social media because no one or no one model knows exactly where Invest 97-L is going to end up tracking in 7-14 days from now. Don’t fall for the social media hype on this system. Stick with us because we’re going to guide you through every step with this system.
Here Are My Thoughts: Invest 97-L is likely to continue organizing over the eastern Atlantic and will very likely become a depression between later today and about Tuesday. It should also continue heading in a northwesterly direction before it begins to turn back to the west along about the 17-18 North Latitude line.
Turning to the period from about Wednesday to Friday of this upcoming week, it seems likely based on the excellent agreement among the guidance that Invest 97-L will head in a west-northwesterly directly and this should keep this system far enough north to avoid the Lesser Antilles. That being said, if you are in the northern Leeward Islands, the Virgin Islands or Puerto Rico, I would keep very close watch on Invest 97-L, just in case it turns to the west earlier leading a track lower in latitude. Additionally, I do think that this system will strengthen into a tropical storm by or before Wednesday and then become a hurricane by the end of this week.
As we get into next weekend (August 16-17), the weather pattern looks to become more complicated and thus, the potential track of Invest 97-L becomes more complicated and uncertain. An upper level high pressure ridge over the central and eastern Atlantic may weaken enough to allow Invest 97-L to turn more to the northwest. How sharp of a northwest turn occurs is something that is uncertain.
On one hand, if we see a sharp turn to the northwest, it probably will continue that turn more to the north leading to a path that takes it towards Bermuda and then out into the open Atlantic.
On the other hand, should we turn a much more lazy turn to the northwest, it could get caught underneath a building high pressure system during next week (week of August 18) leading to this system threatening the Bahamas and the East Coast of the United States.
The key weather feature to watch around next weekend and beyond is the strength of the high pressure ridge over the western Atlantic. If we see a strengthening and expanding high pressure ridge, then the chances would increase for Invest 97-L to impact the East Coast of the United States. On the other hand, should we see a narrower and weaker high pressure ridge, it would give Invest 97-L an out leading it to turn out into the open Atlantic.
My feeling right now is that the chances are higher that Invest 97-L will end up being steered northward towards Bermuda and eventually out into the open Atlantic. That said, this is something that has a low amount of confidence.
That said, to be bluntly honest, I still have no idea at all where Invest 97-L will ultimately track next week (week of August 11). Because of this, my recommendation is that everyone from the Florida Peninsula and the Bahamas northward up the entire East Coast of the United States and Atlantic Canada should monitor the progress of Invest 97-L closely.
Model Track Forecast:
Satellite Imagery:
Also Wanted To Mention The Tropical Disturbance Over The Southeastern Gulf: I wanted to make a mention about the area of convection that’s located over the southeastern Gulf as its presentation on satellite imagery and radar loops have gotten more interesting.
This disturbance has brought extremely heavy amounts of rainfall to southwestern parts of Florida this morning with areas around Sanibel, Captiva and Pine Island receiving up to a foot of rain with more on the way.
Analysis reveals that there seems to be some low to mid-level circulation associated with it. A majority of the circulation seems to be occurring just west of Naples. Additionally, the wind shear values over the eastern Gulf are favorable for development.
The combination of the deep convection that’s occurring, along with low amounts of wind shear and the low and mid-level circulation that seems to be presence says to me that we need to keep an eye on this disturbance, in case it spins up unexpectedly into a tropical system.
Right now, none of the model guidance are forecasting any sort of development of the southeastern Gulf disturbance and it is expected to head in a northwesterly direction reaching the north-central Gulf Coast by Monday night or Tuesday morning.
I will certainly be keeping an eye on this area of convection and will have updates if it does begin to spin up into a tropical system.
The next tropical weather discussion will be issued on Monday.