Beryl continues to push inland across East Texas at the time of this writing with the center just to the south-southeast of Tyler.
While the wind and storm surge parts of the storm have subsided, there is now the threat for heavy rain with flash flooding and a threat for tornadoes across much of East Texas and western Louisiana. Right now as I write this, there are 11 tornado warnings in effect centered right near the border of east Texas and northwest Louisiana.
It is expected that Beryl will continue to weaken as it heads to the north-northeast from east Texas into Arkansas during tonight into Tuesday morning. The remnants of Beryl are then expected to head into the Ohio Valley by Wednesday where it’ll link up with a frontal boundary and dissipate.
Heavy rain with the threat for flooding will be a concern across a large area from TexArkAna northeastward into the Ohio Valley and the Great Lakes region over the next couple of days.
The tornado threat with Beryl will continue through tonight across east Texas, western Louisiana and southern Arkansas. This tornado threat will spread into the lower Ohio Valley on Tuesday and then into parts of southern New York State and northern Pennsylvania on Wednesday.
Looking beyond Beryl – It looks like things will quiet down in a big way for at least the next week or so with no tropical development expected anywhere across the Atlantic, Caribbean and Gulf of Mexico.
The next timeframe that we’re going to have to look at for potential tropical development is towards the end of this month into the first part of August. Model guidance seems to suggest a new upward motion pulse of the Madden Julian Oscillation to cross the Atlantic around that time. This looks to potentially help to create an environment that’s more favorable for tropical development right at the end of this month into the first part of August. It’s something that I’ll be keeping a close watch on and will have more as we get closer in time.
This will be the last update on Beryl. I will be taking tomorrow and probably Wednesday off with the next tropical weather discussion scheduled to be posted on Thursday.