Barry made landfall yesterday evening just south of Tampico, Mexico as a 40-45 mph tropical storm and is now inland over eastern Mexico. Since moving inland, Barry has weakened and is no longer considered a tropical cyclone and full dissipation is likely to occur within the next 12-24 hours.
The remnants of Barry are expected to continue to produce heavy rainfall throughout the rest of today into Tuesday across mostly northeastern Mexico leading to possible flooding and mudslides.
This will be the last update on Barry.
Tropical Development Continues To Be Possible From The Northeastern Gulf To Near The Southeastern Coast Of The United States During The Fourth Of July Holiday Weekend: We are going to be closely watching the area from the northeastern Gulf to near the Southeast coast of the United States for possible tropical development late this week through this weekend.
The combination of an upper level weather disturbance and a stationary front stalled over the southeastern United States is likely to lead to persistent shower and thunderstorm activity to occur across the Florida Panhandle and the central and northern Florida Peninsula throughout the next few days.
This front is then expected to linger from the very warm waters of the northeastern Gulf to near the Gulf Stream near the southeastern coast of the United States where a low pressure system looks to form by about Thursday or Friday. There is then the potential for this low pressure system to become a tropical system as it meanders around throughout the long holiday weekend.
The question then becomes where will this potential tropical system form. Will it develop over the northeastern Gulf just west of Florida; will it form right over interior parts of the Florida Peninsula or southern Georgia; or will it form over the waters just offshore of northeast Florida, southeast Georgia and the Carolinas. All are equally possible as scenarios and the model guidance are of little help in figuring out which scenario might be more likely.
Most of the GFS ensemble model guidance members show development occurring between coastal northeast Florida and the coastal Carolinas, although it does have a few members pointing to northeast Gulf development.
As for the European ensemble model guidance – There are an equal amount of members showing development in the northeastern Gulf versus just offshore of the Southeast coast of the US. That said, it should be noted that the European ensemble model guidance does show a 50 percent chance of tropical development in the northeast Gulf late this week into this weekend.
I think that it may be at least a couple of more days before we really know where exactly the low pressure system might form. It should be noted that the northeastern Gulf has some of the warmest waters in the entire Atlantic Basin & if tropical development does occur here, it could become a problem quite quickly.
This is also likely to be a forecasting nightmare as the steering winds from the Gulf into the western Atlantic are going to be quite weak. This means that whatever does form will move very slowly and even drift around at times leading to uncertainty as to where exactly it will ultimately go. So, on one hand, if we see development occur over the southwestern North Atlantic, it would be pushed very slowly northeastward into the open Atlantic. On the other hand, if development occurs in the northeastern Gulf, it would drift very slowly westward through the northern Gulf.
Here Are My Thoughts: I definitely do think that the area from the northeastern Gulf to the Southeastern coast of the United States needs to be watched very closely for possible tropical development late this week through this weekend. The development chances are still low, however, due to how uncertain where exactly this system might form & where it may go.
On one hand, it’s actually quite possible that the low pressure could end up being land locked and never really emerges in the Gulf or the Atlantic leading to no development at all.
On the other hand, it’s also quite possible we could see the low pressure system meander around the northeastern Gulf or the southwestern Atlantic leading to the increasing likelihood of development.
Obviously, this is not an easy forecast at all, but rest assured I will be monitoring things very closely throughout this week.
Either way, this weather system is likely to produce a rainy Fourth Of July holiday weekend across the entire Florida Panhandle and much of the Florida Peninsula. Some of this rainfall is also expected to affect southern Georgia, southern Alabama, southern Mississippi and far southeastern Louisiana. The bullseye area of heaviest rainfall still looks to be across all of the Florida Panhandle, the Big Bend area of Florida and along the west coast of Florida from about Fort Myers and points north, including the Tampa Bay area leading to localized flash flooding.
Forecast Total Rainfall Amounts Late This Week Through This Weekend:
The next tropical weather discussion will be issued on Tuesday.