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All is still quiet across the Atlantic, Caribbean and Gulf & it appears that tropical development is not expected through this weekend and probably through next week.

Analysis reveals that the environmental conditions across the Atlantic Basin are unfavorable for development. In fact, the wind shear values are extremely unfavorable for any sort of development across the entire tropical Atlantic, the entire Gulf and much of the Gulf. The only area that has wind shear values that are favorable for tropical development is from off of the East Coast of the United States eastward to near Bermuda. Even with that, none of the model guidance shows any sort of tropical development threat in this area for at least the next week, if not longer.

This all means that it is looking quite likely that we will end up with no named storms in June this year.

The extremely long range model guidance seems to hint that activity might begin picking up across the tropical Atlantic between the Lesser Antilles and the west coast of Africa towards mid-July. These extremely long range models seem to point towards at least a couple of areas of disturbed weather to head westward from the eastern and central tropical Atlantic towards either the Caribbean or up towards the Bahamas during the second half of July. There’s not much else to add to this, except to say that while the rest of June and possibly early July looks quiet, activity might begin picking up towards mid and especially late July.

The next tropical weather discussion will be issued on Tuesday.

Hurricane Erick In The Eastern Pacific: The big weather story in the western Hemisphere is the quick intensification of now Hurricane Erick that’s located in the eastern Pacific about 200 miles to the south of the coast of southern Mexico.

It is expected that Erick will rapidly strengthen and make landfall on the coast of southwestern Mexico during the day on Thursday as a borderline Category 2-Category 3 hurricane. Should Erick make landfall as a 110-115 mph hurricane as landfall, it would be the strongest pre-July hurricane on record to strike Mexico.

It is somewhat uncertain as to where exactly Erick will make landfall along the coast of southwestern Mexico. The reason why is due to the angle that Erick is making landfall along the coast. At this point, it seems most likely that the eye of Erick will make landfall near San Marcos and Copala in the state of Guerrero, located to the east of Acapulco.

Damaging winds and life taking flooding is going to be a big problem across the Mexican states of Guerrero and Oaxaca the rest of today through Thursday and Friday. Rain totals of up to 20 inches are likely & this will cause flash flooding and mudslides in these areas.

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No Tropical Development Is Expected Across The Atlantic, Caribbean & Gulf Throughout The Rest Of This Week Through This Weekend: It appears that tropical development is highly unlikely across the Atlantic, Caribbean and Gulf throughout the rest of this week through this weekend. It no longer appears that the remnants of Erick will try to cross-over southern Mexico and into the Bay of Campeche, even the chances of this occurring were already extremely low.

The weather pattern for at least the next week looks unfavorable for any sort of tropical development. None of the models are really showing any sort of tropical development for at least the next week. In fact, some of the model guidance forecasts no tropical development at all for the rest of this month. This means that it’s quite possible that we could end up with no named storms in June this year.

The next tropical weather discussion will be issued on Friday.

Weather analysis today reveals that the area to watch the next few days will be an area from the far eastern Pacific northward into the Bay of Campeche.

Satellite imagery today shows that there is convection occurring across the Bay of Campeche. This convection is being caused by a surface trough of low pressure that will head towards eastern Mexico over the next couple of days.

The system to really keep an eye on is a tropical disturbance that’s located over the far eastern Pacific just south of Central America. Weather analysis seems to indicate that a low pressure system is connected with this area of disturbed weather. The actual low pressure system is located near 9.5 North Latitude, 89.9 West Longitude. The environmental conditions are favorable for additional development and it seems very likely that this disturbed weather will become yet another Eastern Pacific tropical storm over the next couple of days or so. In fact, it is quite possible that this system could become a hurricane before it comes ashore over southern Mexico later this week.

There is uncertainty as to where exactly this disturbance will make landfall later this week and this is important in terms of whether this will be a crossover tropical system or not. Most of the model guidance seems to suggest that there will be no crossover of this system and thus no tropical development will occur in the Bay of Campeche late this week. I suspect that this will actually be the case and because of this, any development in the Bay of Campeche or the southwestern Gulf late this week has a very low chance of occurring (10 percent or less).

What this eastern Pacific tropical system will do is bring heavy rain and flooding to southern and eastern Mexico starting on Thursday and continuing through Friday and the weekend. Rainfall totals of up to 4 to 8 inches can be expected across southern and eastern Mexico late this week. It is possible that some of this rain could push as far north as far South Texas and the Rio Grande Valley around Friday into this weekend. That said, there is considerable amounts of uncertainty as to whether this rain will even make it as far north as South Texas. It is something to watch either way.

Elsewhere Across The Atlantic, Caribbean & Gulf: Tropical development looks highly unlikely across the rest of the Atlantic Basin throughout this week and probably through this weekend. The overall weather pattern looks unfavorable for any sort of tropical development for at least the next 7-10 days. In fact, none of the model guidance shows any sort of tropical development during the rest of this month and it’s quite possible that we could end up with no named storms in June this year.

The next tropical weather discussion will be issued on Wednesday.

The Atlantic, Caribbean and Gulf continues to be quiet today. This is due to a combination of very strong wind shear values and a blanket of dry air at the mid-levels of the atmosphere across much of the Atlantic Basin.

Looking at satellite imagery today, it reveals a lack of any significant convection across much of the Atlantic Basin. The exception to this is across the southwestern Caribbean where there is some shower and thunderstorm activity occurring. This convection in the southwestern Caribbean is being caused by a westward moving tropical wave. Development of this convection is not expected through this weekend into early next week due to strong amounts of wind shear. This could change as we get into the middle and later parts of next week as this tropical wave moves into the Bay of Campeche.

Now, turning to next week, there continues to be the slight possibility of some sort of tropical development to occur in the Bay of Campeche or the southwestern Gulf around the middle and later parts of next week. The catalyst for this possible tropical development looks to be that tropical wave that’s now located over the southwestern Caribbean. It looks possible that the tropical wave may get pulled into Central America during the early part of next week and then directed towards the Bay of Campeche during the middle and later parts of next week. This is when some of the model guidance are hinting that tropical development could occur in either the Bay of Campeche or the southwestern Gulf.

Looking At The Model Guidance:

The 06Z GFS model run forecasts some minor tropical development to occur in the Bay of Campeche around Wednesday and Thursday of next week. The GFS model then forecasts this system to quickly move into eastern Mexico by next Friday.

The Canadian model forecasts that perhaps some very short-lived tropical development could occur in the southwestern Gulf very near Mexico’s east coast around next Thursday and next Friday. Any system would then quickly be pushed inland into eastern Mexico.

The European model now suggests most of the energy with that tropical wave will remain over southern and eastern Mexico next week with no development forecast.

The European ensemble model guidance continues to hint at tropical development in the Bay of Campeche and the southwestern Gulf with the model forecasting a 40-45 percent chance for tropical development around Thursday and Friday of next week.

Here Are My Thoughts: I do still think that the chances of tropical development in the Bay of Campeche and the southwestern Gulf during the middle and later parts of next week are low (probably about 20 percent or so). That said, it is something that will be watched, just in case we do see a tropical system develop.

Over the next several days or so, I suspect that we will see the tropical wave that’s now located over the southwestern Caribbean move to the Bay of Campeche where an area of disturbed weather may form around Wednesday of next week. This disturbed weather may then try to take advantage of the shape of the coastline of the Bay of Campeche and try to spin up into a tropical depression or very low end tropical storm before it moves into eastern Mexico around next Friday or so.

While I do think that the high pressure ridge over the southern United States should be strong enough to push this tropical system quickly westward into eastern Mexico, it is not a certainty. If this high pressure ridge ends up weaker than forecast, it could lead to the area of disturbed weather over the Bay of Campeche to move further northward into the western Gulf and develop a little more. A further north track could lead to this system coming ashore in northeastern Mexico or far South Texas next weekend. This is exactly what a few of the ensemble members of the Canadian and European models are hinting at.

Either way, any tropical disturbance in the Bay of Campeche or the southwestern Gulf during the second half of next week will likely bring heavy rain and flooding to eastern Mexico from Wednesday of next week through next weekend. It is possible that some of this heavy rain could sneak northward into South Texas late next week and next weekend depending on the exact track of the disturbed weather.

The next tropical weather discussion will be issued on Monday.

Overall, no real changes to what I wrote on Monday. The Atlantic, Caribbean and Gulf remains quiet today and it appears that any sort of tropical development will not be a concern throughout the rest of this week right through this weekend.

Analysis reveals that very strong wind shear prevails across much of the Atlantic, Caribbean and Gulf. This strong wind shear will prevent any sort of tropical development from occurring.

Turning to next week, there is the possibility of tropical development to occur in the Bay of Campeche or the southwestern Gulf around the middle part of next week. A piece of energy over the eastern Pacific this weekend and early next week may get pulled northward into the Bay of Campeche by around next Wednesday or so.

Looking At The Model Guidance:

The 06Z GFS model run forecasts that disturbed weather will affect much of Central America throughout this weekend into early next week before it pushes into the Bay of Campeche by next Wednesday. The GFS model then forecasts this disturbed weather to remain in place over the Bay of Campeche through late next week before it moves inland into eastern Mexico next weekend.

Quick note on the newest 12Z GFS model, it has trended a bit stronger with its forecast of this disturbance. It shows this disturbance forming near the eastern coast of Central America early next week and then moves northwestward reaching the Bay of Campeche by next Wednesday. The GFS model then forecasts this system to strengthen into a depression or even a tropical storm as it heads north-northwestward into the far western Gulf next Thursday & comes ashore in far northeastern Mexico next Friday.

The Canadian model forecasts that a new tropical cyclone will form in the eastern Pacific this weekend into next week. It then forecasts a piece of energy from this tropical cyclone to break off and move into the Bay of Campeche during the Wednesday to Friday time frame next week. This piece of energy then pushes into eastern Mexico by next weekend.

Interestingly, the European model forecasts an area of low pressure to actually form in the Bay of Campeche around next Wednesday and then head into eastern Mexico by late next week.

The European ensemble model guidance continues to hint at tropical development in the Bay of Campeche with the model forecasting a 30-40 percent chance for tropical development around the middle part of next week.

Here Are My Thoughts: While I think the chances of tropical development in the Bay of Campeche and the southwestern Gulf are low next week (probably around 15-20 percent chance), it is something that does need to be watched.

Given the model agreement, I do think that there is a decent chance that we will see an area of disturbed weather move into the Bay of Campeche around next Wednesday or so. It is then quite possible that this area of disturbed weather could try to take advantage of the shape of the coastline of the Bay of Campeche and try to spin up before it moves into eastern Mexico around next Friday or next Saturday.

One thing that we will need to watch is the strength of the high pressure ridge over the southern United States. Right now, model guidance are forecasting this ridge of high pressure system will be strong enough to push any areas of disturbed weather over the Bay of Campeche quickly westward into eastern Mexico with little or no development. Should the high pressure ridge end up weaker than forecast, it could lead to this area of disturbed weather to try to sneak northward a bit into the western Gulf and try to develop a little more. In fact, the newest 12Z GFS model and a couple of the European ensemble members show exactly this & forecasts this system to travel northward across the western Gulf before moving inland into northeast Mexico or far South Texas next weekend.

Either way, any tropical disturbance in the Bay of Campeche during the middle and later parts of next week will probably bring heavy rain and flooding to eastern Mexico during the second half of next week into next weekend. Some of this heavy rain may try to sneak into South Texas late next week and next weekend.

The next tropical weather discussion will be issued on Friday.

The Atlantic, Caribbean and Gulf remains quiet today and it appears that any sort of tropical development will not be a concern throughout this week.

The reason why it is quiet right now is due to an abundant amount of dust pushing across the Atlantic Basin, which is placing a cap on convection. Without any sort of organized areas of convection, tropical development will not happen. Another reason why tropical development is not expected this week is due to very strong amounts of wind shear which is occurring across much of the Atlantic, Caribbean and Gulf.

It looks as if the upward motion pulse of the Madden Julian Oscillation will not be as strong as previously forecast when it moves into the Caribbean and Gulf. Because of this, it will not have as much of an influence on development chances across the Caribbean and Gulf. Because of this, the chances of tropical development across the Atlantic Basin may remain very low right through next week as well.

That said, there is one area that may need to be watched next week for signs of possible tropical development.

The area that we may need to watch for signs of possible tropical development is in the Bay of Campeche and the southwestern Gulf as a piece of energy from the eastern Pacific is possibly pulled northward into the Bay of Campeche. Model guidance such as the ICON model and the European model seem to be pointing to the possibility of an area of disturbed weather to be in place over the Bay of Campeche by early next week. The GFS model also shows this possible disturbance, but given it’s been forecasting tropical development to occur for a couple of weeks now, it will not be considered into my forecast. The European ensemble model guidance does show about 25 percent chance for tropical development early next week in the Bay of Campeche.

Here Are My Thoughts: More than likely nothing will come from any area of disturbed weather that develops in the Bay of Campeche and the southwestern Gulf early next week. That said, there is, I think, a low chance (probably about a 10-20 percent chance) for perhaps a tropical depression to form in the Bay of Campeche as an area of disturbed weather tries to take advantage of the shape of the coastline of the Bay of Campeche and tries to spin up.

Either way, any tropical disturbance probably will be able to bring heavy rain and flooding to eastern Mexico during the first half of next week. It appears, for now, that a ridge of high pressure over the southeastern United States should be strong enough to push any tropical system inland into eastern Mexico rather than it being pulled northward towards the US Gulf Coast.

Elsewhere across the Atlantic, Caribbean and the rest of the Gulf, tropical development is not expected throughout this week right through probably all of next week. In fact, if nothing comes from the disturbance over the Bay of Campeche early next week, then we may not see any sort of tropical development throughout the rest of this month.

The next tropical weather discussion will be issued on Wednesday.

All is quiet across the Atlantic, Caribbean and the Gulf today and it is very likely that things will remain quiet through this weekend. In fact, tropical development probably will not be a concern right through next week across the entire Atlantic Basin.

One reason for the quietness across the Atlantic Basin are the very large outbreaks of Saharan dust that has been traversing across the Atlantic this week. This dust has helped to create a cap on the atmosphere leading to very little in the way of convection across the Atlantic, Caribbean and the Gulf.

Another very large area of Saharan dust is currently pushing its way across the central and eastern Tropical Atlantic. This Saharan dust should reach Puerto Rico, the Virgin Islands, the Lesser Antilles and the eastern Caribbean by about Monday and then progress into the Bahamas and the western and central Caribbean by the middle part of next week.

This Saharan dust is perfectly normal for this time of year and is usually something that does occur right through July.

One thing this Saharan dust will do is to keep things quiet across the Atlantic Basin right into next week. This Saharan dust will also probably put a cap on any widespread convection across much of the Atlantic Basin for the next few days.

Looking even further out, it’s still possible that increasing amounts of storminess could occur across the western Caribbean, Central America and the southern Gulf starting around next weekend and continuing through the week of June 16.

First off, ignore the GFS model and its forecasts of tropical storms and hurricanes in the 10 to 15 day time period. This is a known bias from the GFS model and unless other models agree with the other models, the forecasts from the GFS model should be ignored.

Looking at other data that is more accurate than the GFS model, it shows that most of the tropical development is likely to occur over the eastern Pacific over the next week or so. It does look like that some of the convection will seep over into the western Caribbean and the southern Gulf as we get into next weekend and beyond. It should also be noted that the European ensemble model guidance does show a 10-20 percent chance for tropical development to occur in the Bay of Campeche and the southwestern Gulf during the week of June 16.

It’s way too soon to really tell if western Caribbean and southern Gulf tropical development is going to be a growing concern or not.

One thing that is for sure is that all will be quiet across the Atlantic, Caribbean and the Gulf this weekend through next week.

The next tropical weather discussion will be issued on Monday.

Low Pressure Will Bring Locally Heavy Rainfall From The Florida Peninsula Northward To The Coastal Carolinas The Next Couple Of Days: Satellite imagery and weather analysis indicates that a surface trough of low pressure currently extends across the Florida Peninsula. This trough is producing shower and thunderstorm activity across parts of South Florida, the northern Bahamas and now across southeastern Georgia.

It is expected that a low pressure system will form over eastern South Carolina on Thursday and then track into eastern North Carolina by Friday. It appears that this low pressure system will remain inland across eastern South Carolina and eastern North Carolina and because of this, tropical development is no longer expected (the chances were very low anyways).

What this low pressure system will do is bring additional locally heavy rainfall to much of the Florida Peninsula, coastal Georgia and coastal South Carolina the rest of today. This locally heavy rainfall will affect southeastern Georgia, eastern South Carolina and eastern North Carolina on Thursday. This heavy rainfall may produce localized flooding issues, especially in the Charleston Metro and the South Carolina Lowcountry where any flooding will be exacerbated at the time of high tide.

Forecast Additional Rainfall Amounts Through Thursday:

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Elsewhere Across The Atlantic, Caribbean and The Gulf: The rest of the Atlantic, Caribbean and the Gulf will be quiet throughout the rest of this week right through at least this weekend.

Beyond this, the GFS model continues to display its early season bias of forecasting a hurricane in the western Caribbean and the Gulf in the 10-15 day time period. This is a known bias from the GFS model and unless other models agree with the other models, the forecasts from the GFS model should be ignored.

When we look at the other model guidance, they show any tropical development occurring over the eastern Pacific rather than the Caribbean or the Gulf over the next 10-15 days or so.

One thing that I did want to mention is that the European ensemble model guidance does show some members forecasting a system to cross over from the eastern Pacific to the Bay of Campeche late next week and next weekend. That said, only 20 percent of the ensemble members show this scenario.

While the scenario of a tropical system crossing from the eastern Pacific into the Bay of Campeche and the southwestern Gulf is a very low probability one right now, it should be noted that there may be a weakness in a high pressure ridge over the Gulf. If this occurs, it could allow any tropical systems over the eastern Pacific to be drawn northward across southern Mexico and into the Bay of Campeche late next week and next weekend.

Until then though, all looks to be quiet across the Atlantic, Caribbean and the Gulf.

The next tropical weather discussion will be issued on Friday.

Tropical Development Remains A Possibility Near The Carolinas Later This Week: It looks like there is a chance that we could see the development of a tropical depression or even a low end tropical storm late this week near the coast of the Carolinas. That said, the chances of tropical development occurring are low as of right now.

A weather disturbance located along a old frontal boundary is currently located in the area from South Florida into the northern Bahamas as of today. This weather disturbance is expected to continue to produce heavy rainfall in the form of showers and thunderstorms across South Florida and the Bahamas throughout the rest of today. Additional rainfall amounts of 2 to 4 inches with local amounts of up to 6 inches can be expected across South Florida and across the northern and central Bahamas.

This weather disturbance is expected to lift northward and will be located near northeast Florida by Wednesday evening. This means that locally heavy rain can be expected on Wednesday across central and northern Florida with amounts of 1 to 3 inches expected.

As we get into Thursday, it is expected that a low pressure system will form right along the South Carolina coast. This low pressure system is then expected to track northeastward into southeastern and eastern North Carolina on Thursday night and Friday.

The greatest chance for any possible development looks to be from Thursday right through Friday. What needs to occur for development to happen is that the low pressure system will need to stay just offshore over or near the Gulf Stream. If that happens, then the chances are certainly there for tropical development to occur. On the other hand, if this low pressure system stays near or just inland across the Carolinas, then development likely would not occur.

Either way, this low pressure system will bring locally heavy rainfall across southeastern Georgia, southern South Carolina and southeastern and eastern North Carolina during Thursday into Friday. Up to 1 to 3 inches of rainfall is a possibility.

By Saturday, this low pressure system will be swept out into the open Atlantic as a cold front pushes eastward.

Even though the chances of tropical development are very low, I will still be keeping close tabs on this weather system. This means that I will keep you updated over the next couple of days or so.

Forecast Total Rainfall Amounts Through Saturday:

The next tropical weather discussion will be issued on Wednesday.

Tropical Development Is A Possibility Near The Carolinas Later This Week: A stationary frontal boundary that stretches from South Florida and the Bahamas northeastward to well offshore of the East Coast of the United States may become the focus for some sort of tropical development later this week.

Model guidance such as the GFS and the European model seem to be agreeing that a piece of energy will break off from the frontal boundary in a couple of days from now and head north and then northeastward reaching the South Carolina coast by Thursday where a low pressure system looks to form. Moisture, energy and convection associated with this low pressure system will combine with some convergence along the coast to help to possibly form a tropical system near the South Carolina and North Carolina coast by Thursday and Friday.

In addition, the European ensemble model guidance is showing upwards of a 20-25 percent chance for tropical development near the North and South Carolina coast late this week into this weekend.

Here Are My Thoughts: I do think that we will certainly see the development of a low pressure system near the South Carolina coast by Thursday that heads for coastal North Carolina by Friday. Any low pressure system should then track offshore of the Mid-Atlantic coast by Saturday as an eastward moving cold front pushes it offshore.

In addition to this, there is the possibility, albeit a low one right now, that this low pressure system could become a short-lived tropical depression or low end tropical storm as it moves near or just barely offshore of the coasts of northeastern South Carolina and southeastern and eastern North Carolina later Thursday and Friday.

Any system, whether it becomes a tropical depression/tropical storm or not, is likely to bring squally weather to the immediate coasts of South Carolina and southeastern and eastern North Carolina on Thursday and Friday.

Before that though, squally weather connected to the stationary front will affect South Florida and the Bahamas the rest of today through Tuesday. The piece of energy that breaks off from the front and lifts northward is then expected to bring squally weather to eastern and northeast Florida and southeastern Georgia on Wednesday.

I will be keeping close tabs on this possible short-lived tropical development closely and will keep you updated, especially since it’s only a few days away and it’ll be in-close to the coast.

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Latest Update On The Very Low Possibility Of Western Caribbean Tropical Development Next Week Or So: One we get into next week and the week of June 16, an upward motion pulse of the Madden Julian Oscillation will move into the Atlantic. This upward motion pulse of the Madden Julian Oscillation will help to foster stormier weather around Central America into the western Caribbean during next week into the weekend of June 14.

It’s still way too soon to really tell with any accuracy whether tropical development will occur over the western Caribbean from this storminess or not.

One thing that is definitely for sure is that you should ignore the GFS model’s constant forecast of a hurricane in the Gulf next week. This is a very common bias of the GFS model this time of year and it’s outlandish model forecasts for 10-15 days away should be ignored.

Other model guidance members such as the European model continues to forecast no tropical development in the western or northwestern Caribbean through the middle part of this month.

Here Are My Latest Thoughts: My thinking right now is that all of this week through this weekend will be quiet across the Gulf and the western Caribbean in terms of tropical development.

As we get into next week, the presence of an upward motion pulse of the Madden Julian Oscillation should help to produce squally and stormy weather across much of the western Caribbean that will also affect the Yucatan Peninsula, Belize, the Cayman Islands and western Cuba.

It’s then possible (although an extremely low possibility right now) that we could see a tropical depression try to form over the western or northwestern Caribbean very late next week into the weekend of June 14-15.

This is something that still has my attention and is something that I will continue to keep a close eye on.

The next tropical weather discussion will be issued on Tuesday, which will have the latest on the possibility of tropical development near the Carolina coastline later this week.