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Tropical Storm Gabrielle: Gabrielle is on life support today as satellite imagery shows little or no deep convection near the center of circulation. It seems that a series of upper-level low pressure systems are imparting dry air and westerly wind shear onto Gabrielle. In fact, it looks likely that this system will continue to struggle mightily over the next couple of days or so & it’s pretty likely that Gabrielle will be downgraded to a depression at some point over the next couple of days.

Looking beyond this, the environmental conditions are forecast to become more favorable for strengthening at some point this weekend. These more favorable conditions should lead to Gabrielle strengthening and then probably passing to the east of Bermuda around the early part of next week. That being said, some of the model guidance do still show Gabrielle moving very close to or right over the island & this is something that needs to be watched.

It is highly likely that Gabrielle will not be a threat to the Caribbean Islands and will turn into the Atlantic well before reaching the Bahamas and the United States.

As for Bermuda – As I just mentioned, those of you on the island of Bermuda will want to keep a close eye on the forecasts surrounding Gabrielle. While most model guidance do suggest a path that keeps it east of Bermuda, the very disorganized and weak state of the storm suggests that there is quite a bit of uncertainty as to where a new center may ultimately form. Because of this, I would keep a close eye on this storm, in case it does impact you early next week.

Model Track Forecast:

Satellite Imagery:

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Elsewhere Across The Atlantic, Caribbean & Gulf: Satellite imagery, weather analysis and radar data indicates that the combination of a tropical wave and an upper-level trough of low pressure is bringing heavy showers and thunderstorms to both the British and US Virgin Islands, as well as to eastern parts of Puerto Rico. Flooding has already been reported in parts of the Virgin Islands.

It is expected that these heavy showers and thunderstorms will continue to affect Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands through tonight before these inclement conditions spread into Hispaniola and the southeastern Bahamas tonight and Friday. Be aware that flash flooding and mud slides will certainly be a hazard through Friday.

No tropical development is expected with either the tropical wave or the upper level trough.

As I have mentioned in previous discussions, we might have to really start watching the western Caribbean and the Bay of Campeche as soon as late next week and next weekend.

The Google Deep Mind AI model is particularly very aggressive in forecasting tropical development to occur in the western Caribbean around next Saturday. Most of the ensemble members of the Google AI model then forecasts anything that develops to head into the Gulf of Mexico during the first half of the week of September 29. I’m still pretty skeptical on completely believing this model as it is still very new & hasn’t really been test driven a whole lot this season.

Looking at the other ensemble model guidance, the GFS ensemble model guidance does show a few members that develop a tropical system in the northwestern Caribbean around late next weekend. Those members that show development actually increase around October 1 across the Bay of Campeche and the southern Gulf.

As for the European ensemble model guidance, it seems that about 20-30 percent of its members forecast development in the western Caribbean next weekend. It should be noted that, much like the GFS ensemble guidance, the number of members that show development increase dramatically around October 1 in the southern Gulf.

My take on this is that I do think that the area from the western Caribbean through the Bay of Campeche and the southern Gulf will definitely need to be watched closely for possible tropical development during the week of September 29. I think that the Google AI model might be too quick in showing development & I’m leaning more on the side of the conventional models that show the development occurring between September 29 and October 1. Either way, this is something to certainly keep an eye on.

The next tropical weather discussion will be issued on Friday.

Tropical Depression #7 (Now Tropical Storm Gabrielle): I’m actually surprised that they upgraded Invest 92-L to a tropical depression earlier this morning given what it looks like on satellite imagery (now, I’m really surprised they upgraded it to Tropical Storm Gabrielle).

Satellite imagery today reveals that this system seems to lack any sort of a defined low-level circulation. In fact, it still looks like a tropical wave to me, especially with how elongated and disorganized it is.

Anyways, now that we have Tropical Depression 7 designated by the National Hurricane Center, the depression seems to be moving on a west-northwest to northwest direction and this general direction is likely to continue for the next few days. Because of this, it is quite likely that this system will pass well to the east and northeast of the Lesser Antilles during this weekend.

Beyond this, it continues to look quite possible that this system will be a threat to the island of Bermuda around Tuesday of next week. Also, this system is probably going to struggle to strengthen over the next few days due to moderate amounts of wind shear & ingestion of dry air. Once we get into this weekend and early next week, however, this system may move into an environment that’s more favorable for strengthening & because of this, Bermuda may have a hurricane threat around Tuesday of next week. The uncertainty lies to whether the depression will track directly over the island or pass to the east of the island. My recommendation to those of you in Bermuda is to monitor this system extremely closely over the coming days.

As for the Bahamas and the East Coast of the United States, it continues to look fairly likely that an upper level trough located over the western North Atlantic will keep this system from heading towards the Bahamas or the East Coast of the United States. Instead, this upper level trough will deflect the depression and turn it to the north and northeast away from the Bahamas and the US East Coast. It should be noted though that if this system does become a strong hurricane in the middle of the North Atlantic, it could send another round of rough surf and rip currents to the East Coast of the United States during next week.

Model Track Forecast:

Satellite Imagery:

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Elsewhere Across The Atlantic, Caribbean & Gulf: There is another tropical wave that’s located over the far eastern Tropical Atlantic that’s producing some disorganized convection. All-in-all, this system may not really develop at all due to marginally favorable environmental conditions. Also, it is expected that this wave will eventually curve out into the open Atlantic well before it reaches the Lesser Antilles.

Looking much closer to the United States, satellite imagery and weather analysis indicates that there is a surface trough of low pressure stretched from the far northwestern Caribbean northeastward to across central and south Florida. There is scattered convection occurring all along the surface trough. It is expected that this surface trough of low pressure will remain in place & because of this, expect a continuation of scattered showers and thunderstorms across the northwestern Caribbean, the Florida Keys, South and Central Florida and the northern Bahamas over the next couple of days or so.

It should be noted that some of the model guidance forecast that this mess will evolve into the development of a surface low pressure system over the Bahamas around this weekend. While this is something that will be watched closely, it appears that the environmental conditions may just be too unfavorable for any sort of tropical development.

Finally, we may have to turn our eyes towards the western Caribbean and the Bay of Campeche as soon as late next week.

The ensemble members of the GFS model show a uptick in members forecasting development in the Bay of Campeche between about Wednesday and Friday of next week.

Meanwhile, the European ensemble model guidance shows a little increase in the chances for tropical development over the Bay of Campeche as well as over the western Caribbean next weekend.

The Google Deep Mind AI ensemble model is pointing towards the northwestern Caribbean being a spot to watch for tropical development around next weekend.

All-in-all, the gradual increase in tropical development chances over the western Caribbean and Bay of Campeche in about 10 days or so from now does not surprise me & it fits in to what I think will be an area to closely watch for development chances between September 26 and October 10.

The next tropical weather discussion will be issued on Thursday.

Coastal Storm Located Near The North Carolina Outer Banks: Weather analysis of satellite imagery and marine weather observations indicates that the coastal storm that we’ve been watching is currently located about 75 miles to the east-northeast of Cape Hatteras at the time of this writing. It is expected that this low pressure system will continue to track slowly along the outer banks of North Carolina before crossing the coast near Albemarle Sound by later today. From there, this low pressure system will slow down and weaken near the Virginia-North Carolina border tonight.

The gustiest winds from this storm system will occur across northeastern North Carolina and southeastern Virginia throughout the day today through tonight. Wind gusts of up to 35-45 mph can be expected, especially along the immediate coast.

In addition, bands of moderate to heavy rain associated with this low pressure system will affect mostly northeastern North Carolina and eastern and southeastern Virginia throughout the rest of today through tonight. Additional rainfall totals of 2 to 3 inches with locally higher amounts can be expected over the next 12-24 hours.

Finally, there is the expectation of some additional minor coastal flooding across eastern North Carolina and the outer banks, eastern and southeastern Virginia, coastal Maryland and coastal Delaware during the high tides the rest of today, tonight and Wednesday.

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Invest 92-L Located Halfway Between The Lesser Antilles & The West Coast Of Africa: Invest 92-L is certainly organizing this morning as satellite imagery reveals that the disturbance is producing quite a bit in the way of deeper convection. Additionally, there is a good amount of low-level rotation noted in satellite loops.

All indications seem to point towards Invest 92-L developing into a depression over the next couple of days or so & then going on to become a tropical storm and even a hurricane. The next name on the list is Gabrielle.

Invest 92-L is expected to head in a west-northwest to northwest direction throughout the rest of this week and this will most certainly keep this system well north of the Lesser Antilles and the northeastern Caribbean by this weekend.

Beyond this, I think that the island of Bermuda really needs to keep a close eye on the progress of Invest 92-L as it could pose a threat to you in about a week from now. The latest ensemble guidance from the GFS and European models show a majority of their members either threatening or directly impacting the island of Bermuda around next Tuesday. Additionally, some of the model guidance are showing that Invest 92-L could be a strong hurricane when it passes near or over Bermuda, so this is something to certainly keep a very close eye on.

As for the Bahamas and the East Coast of the United States, it continues to look fairly likely that an upper level trough located over the western North Atlantic will keep Invest 92-L from heading towards the Bahamas or the East Coast of the United States. Instead, this upper level trough will deflect Invest 92-L and turn it to the north and northeast away from the Bahamas and the US East Coast. It should be noted though that if Invest 92-L does become a strong hurricane in the middle of the North Atlantic, it could send another round of rough surf and rip currents to the East Coast of the United States during next week.

Model Track Forecast:

Satellite Imagery:

The next tropical weather discussion will be issued on Wednesday.

Coastal Storm Located Near The North Carolina Outer Banks: The latest weather analysis indicates that there is a coastal low pressure system that’s located about 100 miles to the southeast of the North Carolina Outer Banks.

This low pressure system is expected to slowly move in a northwesterly direction and move inland over eastern North Carolina by Tuesday.

It is then expected that this low pressure system will sit and spin in the area around eastern North Carolina and southeastern Virginia through Wednesday before it weakens and heads out into the open Atlantic.

There is likely to be a tight pressure gradient between this low pressure system and an area of high pressure located over the northeastern United States. This will lead to some quite gusty onshore winds occurring across eastern North Carolina, southeastern Virginia, coastal Maryland and much of Delaware from the rest of today through Tuesday and into Wednesday. Wind gusts on the order of 35-45 mph can be expected at times, especially along the immediate coast.

In addition, bands of moderate to heavy rain on the west, northwest and north sides of this low pressure system will affect much of eastern North Carolina, the North Carolina Outer Banks, southeastern Virginia, southern and eastern Maryland and eastern Delaware from the rest of today through Tuesday and into Wednesday. Rainfall totals of 2 to 4 inches with locally higher amounts can be expected.

Finally, the onshore gusty winds will probably lead to at least some minor coastal flooding occurring across eastern North Carolina and the outer banks, eastern and southeastern Virginia, coastal Maryland and coastal Delaware during the high tides this afternoon, tonight, Tuesday, Tuesday night and Wednesday.

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Invest 92-L Located Over The Central Tropical Atlantic: The tropical wave that we have been watching over the last few days has been designated Invest 92-L by the National Hurricane Center. At the time of this writing, Invest 92-L is located over the central Tropical Atlantic near 40 West Longitude.

Satellite imagery today reveals that Invest 92-L is producing some deeper convection now, however, this system is fairly disorganized and has a ways to go before becoming a depression or a tropical storm. That said, loops of satellite imagery does show that there is a wide area of low-level turning with this wave and the overall size of this wave is fairly large. This says to me that when Invest 92-L does develop into a tropical cyclone, it may be a rather large storm in overall size.

The environmental conditions around Invest 92-L remain marginally favorable for development & that is being generous. There is still an axis of strong wind shear and dry air located just to the north of this system that is being produced by an upper level low pressure system. This should keep Invest 92-L in-check in terms of how much it can develop over the next few days or so.

It looks very likely that Invest 92-L will head in a west-northwesterly direction throughout this week and this will likely keep this system to the north of the Lesser Antilles and the northeastern Caribbean by late this week and this weekend.

Looking beyond this, I do still think that we will see Invest 92-L organize and strengthen once it is located to the north of Lesser Antilles this weekend. In fact, some of the model guidance are pointing towards the possibility of this system being quite a strong hurricane at some point when it’s located in the North Atlantic.

Additionally, model guidance seems to suggest that there will be an upper level trough in place over the western North Atlantic this weekend into next week. This should put up a barrier of sorts & keep this system from heading towards the Bahamas or the East Coast of the United States. Instead, it looks more plausible that Invest 92-L will head to the north and may end up threatening or directly impacting the island of Bermuda near the middle part of next week.

All-in-all, this system continues to pose no direct threat to the Caribbean, the Bahamas or the United States. The only area that this system may be a threat to is the island of Bermuda around the middle part of next week. It should be noted though that if this system does become a strong hurricane in the middle of the North Atlantic, it could produce another round of rough surf and rip currents along the East Coast of the United States during next week.

Model Track Forecast:

Satellite Imagery:

The next tropical weather discussion will be issued on Tuesday.

A Coastal Storm Will Bring Locally Heavy Rain, Gusty Onshore Winds & Some Coastal Flooding To The Mid-Atlantic States From Late Monday Until Thursday: Weather analysis today reveals that there is a low pressure system that is located about 175 miles to the southeast of Wilmington, North Carolina.

This low pressure system is expected to strengthen some and head towards the outer banks of North Carolina by Monday night. It is then expected that this low pressure system will sit and spin in the area between the outer banks of North Carolina and southeastern Virginia during Tuesday and Wednesday before it weakens and heads out into the open Atlantic.

There is likely to be a tight pressure gradient between this low pressure system and an area of high pressure located over the northeastern United States. This will lead to some quite gusty onshore winds occurring across eastern North Carolina, southeastern Virginia, coastal Maryland and much of Delaware during Tuesday and Wednesday. Wind gusts on the order of 30-45 mph can be expected at times, especially along the immediate coast.

In addition, it is also looking likely now that there will be heavy bands of soaking rain to occur across much of eastern North Carolina, central and eastern Virginia, much of Maryland and much of Delaware. Across these areas, rain totals of 1 to 3 inches can be expected from late Monday until Thursday morning.

Finally, the onshore gusty winds will probably lead to at least some minor coastal flooding occurring across eastern North Carolina and the outer banks, eastern and southeastern Virginia, coastal Maryland and coastal Delaware during the high tides on Tuesday, Tuesday night, Wednesday and Wednesday night.

Now, will this low pressure system become a sub-tropical or tropical storm? At this point, I think that this low pressure system will probably remain non-tropical in nature. That being said, some of the model guidance does hint at the possibility of it acquiring some sub-tropical elements to it around Tuesday. Any sub-tropical development of this system looks to be relatively short-lived.

Those of you in eastern North Carolina and the outer banks, eastern and southeastern Virginia, eastern Maryland and Delaware, be aware that the weather is going to be very inclement starting as soon as Monday afternoon, but especially during Tuesday and Wednesday. Expect on and off heavy rain, gusty easterly winds that gust up to 30-45 mph at times and overwash at the beaches at the time of high tide.

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Tropical Wave Located Over The Eastern Tropical Atlantic: Satellite imagery and weather analysis reveals that the tropical wave that’s located over the eastern Tropical Atlantic near about 32 West Longitude is looking a little more convectively active than it did yesterday. Still though, this wave is disorganized as it appears that there are two competing areas of circulation that are located along the wave axis. Additionally, this wave is being affected by some dry and stable air.

The combination of disorganized look of the wave and the dry and stable air will lead to slow development of this system over at least the next couple of days.

Eventually, this wave should consolidate into one concentrated circulation center & once this occurs, the rate of development will begin to increase some. The various model guidance such as the GFS and European models suggests that we’ll begin to see a little more development from this wave by about Thursday or so. That said, the environmental conditions may still be a bit unfavorable for more robust development due to strong wind shear from an upper level low pressure system located to the northwest of this system.

My thinking is that we probably will not see any sort of robust strengthening from this wave until it moves to the north of the Lesser Antilles where the conditions look much more favorable for strengthening. Because of this, I think we’ll see strengthening capped at about a tropical depression or a low end tropical storm as it moves through the central Tropical Atlantic and to the north of the Lesser Antilles by next weekend. Once this system begins to track well north of the Lesser Antilles and towards Bermuda, we should see much more robust strengthening. In fact, the GFS and European ensemble guidance are hinting at a hurricane threat to Bermuda in about 10 days from now.

As for a track of this system, it seems that a majority of the operational and ensemble model guidance are showing a track that keeps this wave well north of the Lesser Antilles next weekend. In fact, the ensemble guidance seem to be trending towards a path that keeps this system far enough away from the Lesser Antilles to not be a problem.

It should be noted that the ensemble guidance and the AI models do point to a possible threat to the island of Bermuda in about 10 days from now & this is something to be watched closely over the next week or so.

All-in-all, this system continues to pose no threat to the Caribbean, the Bahamas or the United States. The only area that this system may be a threat to is the island of Bermuda in about 10 days from now.

The next tropical weather discussion will be issued on Monday.

Tropical Wave Located Over The Far Eastern Tropical Atlantic: There is a tropical wave that’s located over the far eastern Tropical Atlantic near about 20-25 West Longitude that is producing very disorganized convection. Much like many of the other waves that we have seen this season, there is some dry air and wind shear that is affecting this wave & because of this, any development will be very slow to occur over the next several days.

It is expected that this wave will move in a general west-northwestward track over the next few days and is expected to reach the central Tropical Atlantic in about 2-3 days from now. Again, the overall environmental conditions do not look favorable at all for any sort of quick development. Instead, we should probably see slow to very slow development throughout this weekend into early next week.

There are differences between some of the deterministic operational models and their ensembles on where this wave may ultimately go.

For instance the European operational model forecasts that this system may make a very close brush with the northern Leeward Islands around next Sunday. Meanwhile, a majority of the members of the European ensemble model guidance shows a curve far enough to the northwest to miss the northeastern Caribbean next weekend.

Now, both the GFS operational model and the GFS ensemble model guidance show a far enough track to the north to completely miss the northeastern Caribbean in about a week from now.

As for the AI models – The Google Deep Mind model suggests a track that keeps this system far enough to the north to miss the northeastern Caribbean. Interestingly, the European AIFS model does suggest a very close brush with the northern Leeward Islands next Sunday. That being said, a majority of the ensembles of the European AIFS model does show a far enough north track to completely miss the northeastern Caribbean.

Here Are My Thoughts: As I mentioned yesterday, I do think that we’ll see slow to very slow development of this wave over the next several days as it heads in a west-northwestward motion.

As for a possible track, I do think that a large upper-level low pressure system that’s located over the central North Atlantic should be able to pull this wave far enough to the north during next week leading it to completely miss the eastern and northeastern Caribbean during next weekend.

Looking beyond this, the rate of development may increase once this system moves to the north of the Caribbean and gets to the other side of that upper-level low pressure system. It’s then possible that this system could end up becoming a threat to the island of Bermuda by around September 23. That said, it’s far too soon to say with any certainty as to whether this system will pass to the west, to the east or right over Bermuda.

Finally, all indications seem to point towards this system not being a threat to the Caribbean, the Bahamas or the United States. Again, there could be some sort of threat to Bermuda in about 10 days from now.

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Elsewhere Across The Atlantic, Caribbean & Gulf: A look at the weather analysis today, there is a frontal boundary that extends from near the Florida Straits and the northern Bahamas east-northeastward into the north Atlantic.

I did want to mention that I am keeping an eye on a low pressure system that’s located along this front. This low pressure system is located over the northern Bahamas & it’s possible that this storm system could bring gusty onshore winds and some rain from the Carolinas northward into the coastal Mid-Atlantic states from this coming Tuesday until Thursday.

There are disagreements between the regular models and the AI models on what might occur with this low pressure system. On one hand, the operational GFS and European models show an offshore track, which would lead to little or no effects to the Mid-Atlantic coast or the Carolinas. On the other hand, the European AI model shows a track that keeps this low pressure system right on the coast from the outer banks of North Carolina northward through eastern Virginia, Maryland and Delaware. This in-close track would lead to some very gusty onshore winds, bands of heavy rain & some coastal flooding across the Mid-Atlantic states into eastern North Carolina starting on Tuesday and continuing through Wednesday and ending on Thursday.

At this point, I would say to just keep an eye on this low pressure system & be aware that it could bring some very inclement weather to eastern North Carolina & the outer banks, coastal Virginia, Maryland and Delaware from Tuesday to Thursday. I also think that this low pressure system will probably stay non-tropical, but given the possible tight pressure gradient between this low pressure system & a big high pressure system over the northeastern United States, the onshore winds along the Mid-Atlantic coast could be quite gusty with gusts on the order of 30-45 mph possible.

Looking elsewhere, there is a tropical wave that will be moving through the Lesser Antilles throughout this weekend. This wave will bring localized squally weather to much of the Lesser Antilles throughout this weekend. That said, tropical development is not expected from this wave.

The next tropical weather discussion will be issued on Sunday.

Tropical Wave Near The West Coast Of Africa: Satellite imagery and weather analysis indicates that there is a tropical wave that is located near the west coast of Africa. The convection associated with this wave looks quite disorganized with a lack of any concentrated thunderstorm activity.

It is expected that this wave will head across the eastern Tropical Atlantic this weekend and reach the central Tropical Atlantic by early next week. It appears that the conditions should be a little more favorable for this wave to develop next week, especially when it turns towards a northwesterly direction later next week.

Looking at the model guidance – There is some decent agreement between the guidance members in showing this wave developing into our next named storm, probably during the second half of next week as it turns to the northwest and heads into the open Atlantic well east of the Caribbean. That being said, it is likely that this wave will encounter both dry air and unfavorable wind shear values as it tracks across the eastern and central Tropical Atlantic over the next few days. Because of this, my expectation is that we’ll probably see slow to even very slow development of this wave through the middle part of next week with the rate of development increasing once it moves north of 20 North Latitude late next week.

Whether this system develops or not (it probably will develop into Tropical Storm Gabrielle at some point), it will not be a threat at all to the Caribbean, the Bahamas or the United States.

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Elsewhere Across The Atlantic, Caribbean & Gulf: A look at the weather analysis today, it shows that we have a frontal boundary that extends from South Florida and the northern Bahamas east-northeastward into the north Atlantic. While these frontal boundaries are always something to watch for development this time of year, there’s nothing at all that warrants any sort of attention in terms of possible development.

Looking further east, an upper-level low pressure system located over the central North Atlantic is producing a large area of thunderstorms. No development is expected from this weather feature.

Turning to the tropical Atlantic, there is a tropical wave that will be moving through the Windward Islands over the next 12-24 hours or so. While this wave will bring some showers and scattered thunderstorms to the Windward Islands, tropical development is not expected.

Even though things are quiet right now in terms of tropical development chances, things may gradually become more active starting late next week, but especially during the week of September 22. The model guidance are showing the potential for some robust tropical disturbances moving westward across the deep tropics during this time frame. Where these disturbances go and how strong they become are an unknown right now as it is way too soon to make those types of determination.

That said, it should be noted that some of the model guidance are honing in on a tropical wave that may really need to be watched . This particular wave is expected to push off of the coast of Africa during the first half of next week & may take a much further south track. In fact, the ensemble guidance of both the GFS and European models seem to hint at this disturbance affecting the Lesser Antilles around September 22 or 23. Beyond this, the ensemble guidance diverges on where this system goes with some members showing it moving from east to west across the Caribbean & other members showing it ending up in the southwestern North Atlantic in about 2 weeks from now.

At this point, this is just a tropical wave to just keep an eye on once it moves off of the coast of Africa next week. For now, do not worry or concern yourself about this wave.

Finally, the GFS model is up to its usual tricks this time of year of spinning up tropical systems in the western Caribbean during the 10-15 day forecast range. This is a bias of this model & any western Caribbean tropical development shown by the GFS model this time of year should be viewed with a lot of skepticism. Now, if we start seeing other more reliable models start showing the same thing, then I’ll start paying attention more. Right now though, only the GFS model is showing a tropical system spinning up in the western Caribbean. That said, the tropical system that the European model is showing in the northwestern Caribbean 2 weeks from now is from the tropical wave that’ll be moving off of the coast of Africa. Again though, even though the European model is a good model, it can also over strengthen systems in its longer range forecasts.

The takeaway from the models showing development in the western Caribbean by the week of September 22 is that while these specific model forecasts probably will not verify, it is a good reminder to keep a very close eye on the western Caribbean and the Gulf as we get into later this month and early next month. Some of the bigger threats historically to the US coastline have come from the Caribbean and the Gulf & these storms often come with a lot less warning than from the long-track storms.

The next tropical weather discussion will be issued on Saturday.

Things are about as quiet as they could be out across the Atlantic, Caribbean and Gulf. Today is the climatological peak day of hurricane season & there are not only no tropical storms or hurricanes to worry about across the Atlantic Basin, but there are no tropical disturbances that are worth noting across the Atlantic, Caribbean or Gulf.

Weather analysis today reveals that there is an upper level low pressure centered over the central North Atlantic. This upper level low pressure system is leading to conditions to be unfavorable for tropical development across much of the tropical Atlantic into the eastern Caribbean due to dry air and some wind shear. Further west, conditions are also unfavorable for tropical development from the western Caribbean through the Gulf and into the southwestern North Atlantic due to mostly strong wind shear.

All-in-all, the combination of sinking air, dry air and unfavorable wind shear conditions are squashing any chances of tropical development right now. This all means that I do not expect to see any sort of tropical development to occur across the Atlantic, Caribbean and Gulf throughout the rest of this week right through at least this weekend.

Tropical Development Chances Still Look To Begin To Increase Starting Next Week Across The Atlantic Basin: There seems to be increasing support in the data that suggests the Atlantic Basin will open up for business once again starting next week.

A tropical wave is anticipated to push off of the coast of Africa during this weekend and then head across the eastern Tropical Atlantic as we get into next week. Conditions may become more favorable for this wave to develop as we get into the second half of next week as it moves from the eastern Tropical Atlantic into the central Tropical Atlantic.

A look at the model guidance reveals that both the European and GFS ensemble model guidance forecast development from this wave. The European ensemble model guidance is showing upwards of a 50-60 percent chance of development of this wave by late next week & the GFS ensemble model guidance shows a 80-90 percent chance of development of this wave.

The Google Deep Mind AI model also shows a decent chance of this wave developing later next week as it heads through the eastern and central Tropical Atlantic.

All of the ensemble guidance and the Deep Mind AI model show this system lifting northward well before it reaches the eastern Caribbean Islands leading it to potentially be of no threat to the Caribbean.

Looking beyond this, the Atlantic Basin should begin to become more favorable for development overall in about 10-14 days from now. What looks to possibly occur is that an upward motion pulse of the Madden Julian Oscillation should make its way into the Atlantic by then causing a favorable background state for development.

That being said, I’ve already seen a few instances this hurricane season where conditions were supposed to have become more favorable “in 10 to 14 days from now” and those conditions ultimately never occur. This could end up happening again here & because of this, I do have some skepticism as to how favorable conditions may actually become. No matter what happens though, I am keeping a very close eye on things.

Another area that might need to be watched is the western Caribbean where there’s the possibility of tropical mischief as soon as next week. That said, I have some skepticism of western Caribbean development occurring. The reason for my skepticism is due to the fact there are very few models actually showing development occurring in the western Caribbean.

At this time, the GFS model seems to be the most consistent in forecasting tropical development occurring in the western Caribbean as soon as early next week. It needs to be stated that the GFS model has a bias of spinning up erroneous storms in the western Caribbean & this is the reason for my skepticism.

That said, the latest forecast run of the Canadian model now shows tropical development occurring in the western Caribbean late next week. We’re going to have to see if other models start picking up on the possibility of development occurring in the western Caribbean. If this does occur, then we might need to start considering the potential for western Caribbean occurring. For now though, besides the GFS and Canadian models, none of the other models or their ensemble counterparts show development occurring in the western Caribbean next week.

Either way, this will be something that I’ll be keeping an eye on, no matter what happens.

Bottom Line Is That even though things are eerily quiet across the Atlantic during the peak of the hurricane season, we still have about 60 percent of the season’s activity in front of us, historically. So, enjoy the silence of the Atlantic, but don’t become complacent & think we’re done with the hurricane season, because unfortunately, we’re not.

The next tropical weather discussion will be issued on Friday.

Not only are there absolutely no tropical storms or hurricanes to worry about in the Atlantic Basin on September 8th, but there are no tropical disturbances that are worth noting across the Atlantic, Caribbean or Gulf today.

All indications seem to point towards that there will be no tropical development occurring this week across the Atlantic, Caribbean and Gulf as overall environmental conditions are unfavorable for development. This is due to widespread sinking air and unfavorable wind shear conditions.

All-in-all, it looks likely that there will be no tropical development occurring this week, which is the traditional hurricane season peak week.

Tropical Development Chances Look To Begin To Increase Starting Next Week Across The Atlantic Basin: I do think that the next chance for tropical development will occur as we get into the second half of this month as another upward motion pulse of the Madden Julian Oscillation pushes into the Atlantic.

So, what looks to potentially occur is that the sinking air that’s present over the Atlantic will remain in place for another week or so. As we get into next week & the following week, it appears that there will be a flip towards widespread rising air being in place across the Atlantic, which will lead to an environment that’s more favorable for development.

It should be noted that some of the longer range guidance, including the ensemble guidance and the AI models, are showing the development chances increasing across the central and eastern Tropical Atlantic during next week. Given the really bad model forecasts of Invest 91L, I am just going to wait and see if this actually materializes or if this is another false forecast by the model guidance. That said, the possibility of tropical development occurring over the central and eastern Tropical Atlantic is something that I’ll be watching, no matter what.

Another area that may need to be watched is the western Caribbean where there’s the possibility of tropical mischief as soon as next week. That said, I’m somewhat skeptical of it occurring. The reason for my skepticism is due to the fact that the GFS model is the only model that is showing this possible development in the western Caribbean in just 7-8 days from now. The GFS model has a bias of spinning up erroneous storms in the western Caribbean & this is the reason for my skepticism.

As of right now, none of the other models or their ensemble counterparts show development occurring in the western Caribbean next week. It should be noted that the European AI model does show some hints of western Caribbean development around September 22.

What might be occurring with the GFS model is that it could be too fast in seeing conditions becoming favorable in the western Caribbean & in the end, this development might be delayed by up to one week with it occurring closer to September 22 rather than September 15.

Either way, this will be something that I’ll be keeping an eye on, no matter what happens.

The next tropical weather discussion will be issued on Wednesday.

Invest 91-L Located Over The Eastern Tropical Atlantic: Invest 91-L continues to be fairly disorganized today. Satellite imagery indicated that there is some scattered convection noted with the disturbance, however, there is nothing organized or consolidated. This disorganization seems to have to do with the environmental conditions around Invest 91-L. These unfavorable conditions include a large amount of dry air noted on water vapor imagery located to the north and northwest of Invest 91-L. Additionally, there is some very strong wind shear located just to the north of Invest 91-L & this is probably contributing to it being disorganized.

As for the latest model guidance, they have shown a notable downtrend in development chances as compared to what they were showing yesterday.

In fact, the latest European model has completely dropped the idea of Invest 91-L developing at all. This is due to the European model forecasting that there will be too much dry air, which ends up choking this system.

Even the European ensemble model guidance have much fewer members that are forecasting the development of Invest 91-L as compared to what the ensemble guidance was showing over the last couple of days. In fact, out of the 50 European ensemble members, only 7 of them forecast development of Invest 91-L.

It actually seems that the GFS model is the only model that is forecasting development of Invest 91-L. Could the GFS model be correct and Invest 91-L does develop over the next couple of days? Sure. One thing that will need to happen though for the GFS model to be right is that Invest 91-L will need to start organizing and consolidating steadily between now and Sunday morning. If that does not occur, then the GFS model would be incorrect and we’d need to defer to the European model and other models that are showing no development at all.

***NOTE – The GFS model has now dropped its idea of Invest 91-L developing with its 12Z forecast***

The Google Deep Mind ensemble model guidance also now shows no development at all from Invest 91-L.

It needs to be pointed out, however, that the very few ensemble members that do develop Invest 91-L are showing it to be a strong system. This means if Invest 91-L does try to organize over the next few days, it’ll find a conducive environment for development and take off in terms of intensity. Also, it is possible that the small size of Invest 91-L is giving the models fits & thus causing them to completely miss it & in turn it leads to an incorrect no development forecast. Something to think about.

Bottom line is that there is significant model chaos when it comes to forecasting Invest 91-L as all of the models have been wildly inconsistent in their forecasts of this system. This speaks volumes as to how uncertain the forecast is with Invest 91-L & whether it even develops.

Here Are My Thoughts: I do think that the dry air and strong wind shear located to the north and northwest of Invest 91-L is going to hamper any sort of notable development over the next few days. In fact, it’s quite possible now that this disturbance never develops at all. I do think that the GFS model is wrong in its forecast of robust development this weekend (***12Z run of the GFS model now shows no development at all***) & because of that I’m leaning more towards the guidance that are showing little or no development.

That being said, those of you in the Lesser Antilles, the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico should still closely watch the progress of Invest 91-L as whatever comes of this system will be moving across the Lesser Antilles, the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico on about Thursday and Friday of next week. Even if Invest 91-L never develops, it’ll still bring squally weather to the islands of the eastern and northeastern Caribbean during Thursday and Friday of next week. Should Invest 91-L actually develop, then we’d be looking more in the way of wind, rain and rough seas. Uncertainty is very high right now as to what might happen with Invest 91-L, but the trends seem to be favoring no development at all.

Given the very high uncertainty with Invest 91-L as to whether it’ll even develop at all, I’m not even going to discuss any sort of threat to areas further west, including the Bahamas and the US coastline. Besides, it’s going to take almost two more weeks until Invest 91-L reaches the area near the US coastline, whether it develops or not. Please know that I will be keeping close tabs on this system, no matter what it does. This is not a system that you should be stressing or worrying about if you are located in the Bahamas or along the US coastline.

Model Track Forecast:

Satellite Imagery:

The next tropical weather discussion will be issued on Saturday.