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Hurricane Erin: Erin is a very large hurricane with its tropical storm force winds extending out almost 500 miles across.

Latest reconnaissance aircraft are reporting that Erin has weakened a bit and is now about a 100 mph hurricane and the hurricane is now heading in a northeasterly direction away from the East Coast of the United States.

Even though Erin is moving away from the US East Coast, it is still producing coastal flooding along the North Carolina and Virginia coastlines and in fact the worst of the coastal flooding can be expected with this evening’s high tide. This coastal flooding threat is then expected to last into Friday along the North Carolina and Virginia coastlines.

For this evening’s high tide, it is expected that around 4 feet of coastal flooding can be expected on the Outer Banks of North Carolina and around the Virginia Beach area. This flooding will include compounding flooding and significant beach erosion due to both the high tide & the large and battering waves being produced by Erin.

Elsewhere, extremely rough surf and life threatening rip currents can be expected throughout the rest of this week into this weekend along much of the East Coast of the United States, across Atlantic Canada and on the island of Bermuda. You will be risking your life if you go swimming in the ocean over the next few days, please do not do it!!

Very gusty winds are expected to continue through this afternoon along the Virginia coast with gusty winds of up to 40-45 mph expected along the rest of the Mid-Atlantic coast into areas around Cape Cod, Martha’s Vineyard and Nantucket through Friday.

Gusty winds are also expected on the island of Bermuda this afternoon into Friday. As for Atlantic Canada, gusty winds are likely along the coast of Nova Scotia during the day on Friday and on the Avalon Peninsula of Newfoundland during the day on Saturday.

Forecast Impacts:
Wind:

Storm Surge:

Model Track Forecast:

Satellite Imagery:

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Invest 90-L Located A Few Hundred Miles To The East Of The Leeward Islands: A fairly robust tropical disturbance, just designated Invest 90-L by the National Hurricane Center, is beginning its approach to the Leeward Islands.

Satellite imagery today reveals that there is some fairly concentrated convection occurring with Invest 90-L and the overall environmental conditions are favorable for organization and development over the next few days.

A look at the wind shear values around Invest 90-L reveals that the disturbance is embedded in a ribbon of low wind shear and conditions, overall, seem favorable for gradual development.

It looks likely that Invest 90-L will head in a northwesterly direction and because of this a majority of this disturbance will miss much of the Leeward Islands.

As for impacts to the Leeward Islands, Virgin Islands and Virgin Islands, it appears that this disturbance will bring some squally weather with locally heavy rain beginning on Friday and continuing through Saturday. The northernmost Leeward Islands and the British Virgin Islands will probably see the majority of the squalls as Invest 90-L passes just east of the islands.

Further down the road, it looks likely that Invest 90-L will head nearly due north and likely will develop into a tropical storm later this weekend into next week. Most guidance seems to suggest that this system should pass very near Bermuda around Tuesday and because of this, I urge those of you on the island of Bermuda to closely monitor the progress of this system.

Model Track Forecast:

Satellite Imagery:

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Invest 99-L Located Over The Eastern Tropical Atlantic: Next up is Invest 99-L, which continues to be a robust looking tropical disturbance located over the eastern tropical Atlantic near about 36 West Longitude. Even though Invest 99-L looks quite robust, it just isn’t quite organized enough to be considered a tropical depression.

It is expected that Invest 99-L will head in a westerly direction over the next few days. Conditions for development become highly unfavorable west of 45 West Longitude due to a wall of strong wind shear. Once Invest 99-L hits this strong wind shear on Saturday, it will end any chances for organization or development.

Even though it looks unlikely that Invest 99-L will develop due to that strong wind shear, it will still continue heading in a westerly direction eventually reaching the southern Caribbean by the second half of next week. It is always a good idea to keep an eye on any disturbances moving into the Caribbean this time of year as disturbances, that once were considered dead, can make a rebound and develop.

It should be noted that there are a few ensemble members that do show some sort of development from probably Invest 99-L next weekend near the western Caribbean. That said, most of the ensemble models show no development at all from Invest 99-L.

In any case, this disturbance will be watched closely, no matter what it does.

Model Track Forecast:

Satellite Imagery:

The next tropical weather discussion will be issued on Friday.

Hurricane Erin: Reports from reconnaissance aircraft and satellite imagery reveals that Erin is once again strengthening today. Erin, at the time of this writing, has maximum winds of around 110 mph with a central barometric pressure of 942 millibars.

A look at satellite imagery reveals that the hurricane has become much better organized as compared to what it looked like at this time yesterday. Also, it appears that an eye has once again appeared.

I do think that we will see Erin strengthen some more this afternoon and tonight and very likely will become a Category 3 hurricane. Very strong wind shear and cooler waters by the end of this week will cause Erin to transform into a large non-tropical storm that will head out into the open Atlantic.

Erin’s is now moving on a northerly direction right along the 73.5 West Longitude line and this is very likely as far west as it will get. Erin should continue on its northerly track throughout the rest of today into tonight and will begin to turn to the northeast as we get into Thursday. An accelerated motion to the northeast and east-northeast into the open Atlantic is then expected from Friday through this weekend.

For The North Carolina Outer Banks: Storm surge flooding is expected across the Outer Banks through Thursday with around 2 to 4 feet of surge forecast. This surge will lead to numerous roads on the Outer Banks to be impassable. Significant beach erosion is also expected all across the Outer Banks.

In addition to this, tropical storm conditions with wind gusts of up to 50 mph are expected across the Outer Banks from late today through tonight and into Thursday.

For The Virginia Coast: Storm surge flooding and tropical storm conditions are also expected along coastal Virginia during the day on Thursday.

A surge of 1 to 3 feet looks likely across coastal Virginia mostly during the day on Thursday. This will lead to significant beach erosion and moderate to even major coastal flooding in some areas.

Additionally, wind gusts of up to tropical storm force are expected on Thursday. Wind gusts look to be in the 40-45 mph range.

Forecast Impacts:
Wind:

Rainfall:

Storm Surge:

For The Rest Of The East Coast Of The United States: A very serious threat of very large waves, extremely rough surf, extremely dangerous rip currents and the threat for some coastal flooding exists throughout the rest of this week along the rest of the East Coast.

The worst days look to be today and Thursday along the Southeast and Mid-Atlantic coasts and the worst days along the Northeastern coast of the United States looks to be tonight, Thursday, Friday and even Saturday.

I cannot emphasize enough that the extremely rough surf and extremely dangerous rip current threat is going to make it deadly to go swimming & you may lose your life doing so.

Finally, it still looks fairly likely that Erin will pass far enough offshore of Cape Cod and Nantucket to not bring tropical storm conditions. That said, wind gusts of up to 40 mph are possible on Cape Cod and Nantucket on Thursday night into Friday.

For Bermuda: It continues to look very likely that Erin will pass far enough west of Bermuda to not be a direct impact. The very large size of Erin could lead to some of the outer bands of rain to affect the island through Thursday.

For Atlantic Canada: Erin is very likely to pass well south of Nova Scotia and Newfoundland to not be a threat in terms of wind or rain. The main threat from Erin for Atlantic Canada looks to be very large waves, rough surf and rip currents late this week through this weekend.

Model Track Forecast:

Satellite Imagery:

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Area Of Disturbed Weather Located Over The Central Tropical Atlantic: A tropical wave now located over the central Tropical Atlantic near about 50 West Longitude. The convection with this wave has seemingly perked up some today and this is something that’ll need to be watched as it approaches the Leeward Islands on Thursday night and Friday.

The environmental conditions around this wave are actually kind of favorable for development, although very strong wind shear lurks just to the west of the wave.

Latest model guidance are pointing towards this wave to turn much more to the northwest as we get into Thursday and a majority of the ensemble guidance from the GFS and European models forecast this wave missing a majority of the Lesser Antilles. A few of the ensemble members do show a very close brush with the far northern Leeward Islands on Friday.

My take on this wave is that while it may brush by the northern Leeward Islands, it probably will not develop very much, if at all. I think that what might happen is that as soon as it tries to develop, it’ll be impacted by the stronger wind shear located very nearby leading to an end to any development.

In any case, some squally weather is possible across the northern Leeward Islands starting on Thursday afternoon and continuing through Thursday night and Friday.

Beyond this, it is expected that this disturbed weather will head out into the open Atlantic. That said, some impacts in terms of squally weather is possible early next week on the island of Bermuda.

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Invest 99-L Located Over The Eastern Tropical Atlantic: Finally, I’m also keeping an eye on Invest 99-L, which is a tropical wave located over the eastern Tropical Atlantic near about 30 West Longitude.

Satellite imagery today reveals that this wave is producing a concentrated area of convection that has persisted since yesterday.

While the environmental conditions are currently favorable for development and it’s possible that it could undergo some short-lived development into a tropical system, the conditions ahead of this wave are unfavorable for additional development.

This wave will likely head westward over the next several days and probably will eventually make it into the Caribbean in several days from now, there are no indications in the data that says it’ll develop there.

None of the latest model guidance show any sort of development from Invest 99-L. That being said, I am going to be keeping an eye on it anyways, just in case.

The next tropical weather discussion will be issued on Thursday.

Hurricane Erin: Moderate amounts of wind shear combined with dry air has taken a big bite out of Erin today. Reconnaissance aircraft have found that the hurricane has weakened to about Category 2 strength. Additionally, satellite imagery indicates that most of the deeper convection is occurring on the eastern side of the hurricane with the western side void of convection.

Even though Erin is weaker today, it will mean very little for the East Coast of the United States and the Outer Banks of North Carolina.

It seems likely now that Erin will continue heading on a northwestward track the rest of today and then turn towards the north during Wednesday. A turn to the northeast is then expected on Thursday. This will lead Erin to pass about 150-175 miles offshore of the North Carolina Outer Banks on Wednesday night into Thursday.

As for the forecast strength of Erin over the next few days – This is something that is a little more uncertain. The reason why is because given the way it looks right now with dry air wrapping into the storm on its western side, any new rounds of strengthening are going to take some time to complete.

It’s possible that there could be some strengthening for a time from late tonight through Wednesday into Thursday as Erin begins to accelerate to the north and then northeast. I highly doubt it will reach the strength it was just a couple of days ago, but some modest strengthening seems possible.

For The East Coast Of The United States & Particularly The North Carolina Outer Banks: Erin is pretty likely to pass close enough to the Outer Banks of North Carolina as we get into Wednesday and Thursday to bring the Outer Banks and Pamlico Sound tropical storm force winds with wind gusts of up to 50 mph possible and bands of heavy showers. Most of the tropical storm conditions can be expected to occur during Wednesday night and Thursday.

In addition to this, large waves, rip currents and moderate to major coastal flooding will significantly impact the Outer Banks and Pamlico Sound starting later today and continuing through Wednesday and Thursday. Extensive damage to the beaches is likely with Highway 12 likely going underwater by several feet. Additionally, soundside flooding looks likely on Thursday due to persistent northerly gusty winds.

Mandatory evacuations remain in effect for Zone A on Hatteras Island for both visitors and residents.

Elsewhere along the East Coast of the United States, a very serious threat of very large waves, extremely rough surf, extremely dangerous rip currents and the threat for some coastal flooding exists throughout the rest of this week. The worst days look to be today, Wednesday and Thursday along the Southeast and Mid-Atlantic coasts and the worst days along the Northeastern coast of the United States looks to be late Wednesday, Thursday, Friday and even Saturday. I cannot emphasize enough that the extremely rough surf and extremely dangerous rip current threat is going to make it deadly to go swimming & you may lose your life doing so.

Finally, it still looks fairly likely that Erin will pass far enough offshore of Cape Cod and Nantucket to not bring tropical storm conditions. That said, this is something that will be watched closely as there are some indications that suggest some tropical storm force winds may occur on Nantucket on Thursday night into Friday.

Forecast Impacts:
Wind:

Rainfall:

Storm Surge:

For Bermuda: It continues to look very likely that Erin will pass far enough west of Bermuda to not be a direct impact. The very large size of Erin could lead to some of the outer bands of rain to affect the island on Wednesday and Thursday.

For Atlantic Canada: Erin is very likely to pass well south of Nova Scotia and Newfoundland to not be a threat in terms of wind or rain. The main threat from Erin for Atlantic Canada looks to be very large waves, rough surf and rip currents late this week through this weekend.

Model Track Forecast:

Satellite Imagery:

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Tropical Wave Located Over The Central Tropical Atlantic & Invest 99-L Located Over The Eastern Tropical Atlantic: There are two tropical waves over the central and eastern tropical Atlantic. The wave over the central tropical Atlantic near about 45 West Longitude looks very disorganized and strung out. The new wave, now designated Invest 99-L, located behind this wave is located over the eastern tropical Atlantic near about 25 West Longitude looks far more impressive with deep convection noted with the wave.

It appears that Invest 99-L is likely to weaken as it encounters more unfavorable environmental conditions near the end of this week.

At the same time this is occurring, the wave located over the central tropical Atlantic is anticipated to become more organized as it approaches the Lesser Antilles. As it does this, it looks increasingly more likely that it will begin to be pulled into a large void left behind by Erin. This will cause this wave to turn northwestward as it reaches the Leeward Islands on Friday.

While there is a ribbon of favorable environmental conditions just east of the islands, it is quite narrow and because of this, I am not anticipating to see robust strengthening from the wave over the central Tropical Atlantic. This means that, at most, this wave could strengthen into a depression and maybe a low-end tropical storm by the time it reaches the Leeward Islands on Friday.

This means that those of you in the Leeward Islands and the Virgin Islands will probably see squally weather beginning on Thursday night and continuing through Friday. There is the possibility that there could be wind gusts of tropical storm force should this wave strengthen.

Looking beyond this, it appears that Erin will leave a large upper level trough in its wake & this should cause this wave to curve to the north and northeast into the open Atlantic after impacting the northeastern Caribbean. There are no guidance members that now show any sort of threat to the Bahamas, the United States or much of the Caribbean.

Now back to Invest 99-L, the wave that is located over the far eastern Tropical Atlantic – As I already mentioned, it seems quite possible that it will weaken and fall apart by later this week as it encounters a more unfavorable environment.

That said, even if it falls apart and stays weak, it’ll still head westward and may end up sneaking under the radar. Because of this, it’s probably going to eventually find itself in the Caribbean in about 10 days or so from now. It should be noted that none of the ensemble guidance show any sort of renewed organization or development from this system in the Caribbean, so more than likely this is nothing to worry about. That said, it is something that will be watched, just in case.

The next tropical weather discussion will be issued on Wednesday.

Hurricane Erin: Erin underwent another round of strengthening last night into early this morning & the hurricane is a 140 mph Category 4 hurricane at the time of this writing. The reason for this strengthening seems to have to do with favorable wind shear conditions and ocean water temperatures that are extremely favorable for strengthening.

It seems now that the hurricane has taken a pause in its strengthening as reconnaissance aircraft are reporting that the eye wall is open on the western side & the pressure falls have stopped & are now in a steady-state condition.

Additionally, Erin is now growing in size & it is expected that Erin will grow even more in size over the next couple of days. This means that even though Erin is expected to pass offshore of the North Carolina Outer Banks late Wednesday into Thursday, the wind field will be so large that it’ll still bring tropical storm force winds to the Outer Banks.

The current forward motion of Erin continues to be problematic as it remains on a roughly west-northwest heading. My calculations are that the heading direction is roughly around a 290 degree heading. This has led to guidance to shift even further west in their forecast tracks putting the hurricane even closer to the eastern Bahamas and the North Carolina Outer Banks.

Looking at the track model guidance, the consensus is showing the eye of Erin making it as far west as 73.5 West Longitude before it turns to the northeast. The ICON model, which has been the lead in showing how far west Erin may track, now shows the hurricane making it as far west as 74.4 West Longitude on Wednesday. In fact, the ICON model is showing the hurricane being a Category 5 hurricane when it reaches its furthest west position. The European model also seems to suggest that Erin will be a Category 5 hurricane again as we get into Tuesday and the early part of Wednesday.

One last thing, it should be noted that in comparing where Erin is currently located against where the 12Z track guidance consensus is forecasting where Erin is going reveals that the hurricane continues to track to the south and west of the model guidance. This continues to raise the concern for the eastern Bahamas and then the North Carolina Outer Banks.

Here Are My Thoughts: Erin is going to turn to the north and north, right??? I mean how far west is Erin going to track before it finally makes that much forecast turn to the north.

Now, I fully expect that Erin will make that turn to the northwest and north within the next 36 hours or so, I do think that Erin may make it as far west as 75 West Longitude when it reaches about the 30 North Latitude line during the day on Wednesday. By late Wednesday and Thursday, the hurricane will turn to the northeast.

This means that it is looking more and more likely that Erin will get close enough to bring tropical storm conditions to the eastern Bahamas through Tuesday. Additionally, I think that Erin is probably going to track close enough to the North Carolina Outer Banks (about 100-150 miles or so offshore) to bring them tropical storm conditions & bands of gusty showers from late Wednesday through Wednesday night and Thursday and into Thursday night.

For Those Of You In The Bahamas: Squally weather with tropical storm conditions are expected to continue across the southeastern Bahamas and the Turks and Caicos Islands this afternoon and tonight.

Tropical storm conditions with bands of heavy showers will affect much of the eastern Bahamas by tonight and last through Tuesday.

For The East Coast Of The United States & Particularly The North Carolina Outer Banks: Erin is pretty likely to pass close enough to the Outer Banks of North Carolina as we get into Wednesday and Thursday to bring the Outer Banks tropical storm force winds with wind gusts of up to 50 mph possible and bands of heavy showers. Most of the tropical storm conditions can be expected to occur during Wednesday night and Thursday.

The much, much bigger threat for the Outer Banks are going to be the large waves, rip currents and coastal flooding that will affect you from late Tuesday until sometime on Thursday. This is going to be a prolonged event that lasts several high tide cycles and because of this, travel along NC-12 on Hatteras and Ocracoke Islands will be impossible. Because of this, a mandatory evacuation is in effect for Zone A on Hatteras Island for both visitors and residents.

Elsewhere along the East Coast of the United States, a very serious threat of very large waves, extremely rough surf, extremely dangerous rip currents and the threat for some coastal flooding exists throughout this week. The worst days look to be on Tuesday, Wednesday and Thursday along the Southeast and Mid-Atlantic coasts and the worst days along the Northeastern coast of the United States looks to be late Wednesday, Thursday, Friday and even Saturday. I cannot emphasize enough that the extremely rough surf and extremely dangerous rip current threat is going to make it deadly to go swimming & you may lose your life doing so.

Finally, it does look fairly likely that Erin will pass far enough offshore of Cape Cod and Nantucket to not bring tropical storm conditions. That said, this is something that will be watched closely as some guidance seem to suggest that some tropical storm force winds may occur on the outer Cape and on Nantucket on Thursday night into Friday.

For Bermuda: It continues to look very likely that Erin will pass far enough west of Bermuda to not be a direct impact. The very large size of Erin could lead to some of the outer bands of rain to affect the island on Wednesday and Thursday.

Model Track Forecast:

Satellite Imagery:

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Area Of Disturbed Weather Located Over The Eastern Atlantic: Erin is not the only game in town as we are also closely watching the progress of a tropical wave now located over the eastern tropical Atlantic. This wave has the very real potential to develop over the next few days & looks to affect the Lesser Antilles at the end of this week.

Satellite imagery today reveals that the convection around this wave is disorganized, however, it seems that the convection is consolidating quite far to the south, near about 7-8 North Latitude. If this is where we see this system actually form, it could lead to big problems down the road. Also, the model guidance might be way too far north with where they develop this system, should this wave develop south of 10 North Latitude. I will be very interested to see what future model runs look like with this system.

Anyways, it is expected that this wave will head in a west to west-northwest direction over the next several days & I suspect it will be located in the vicinity of the Lesser Antilles around Friday or so. It would not surprise me to see this system be a tropical storm at that point & those of you in the Lesser Antilles and the eastern Caribbean should keep close tabs on the progress of this wave, in case it does develop into a tropical storm.

Looking beyond this, the model guidance are all over the place on what they want to do with this wave & where it ultimately tracks.

For instance, the European ensemble model guidance has shifted westward with its forecast tracks with a cluster of members from the northernmost Caribbean to the Bahamas by next Monday and another cluster of members showing a track taking it out into the open Atlantic.

The GFS ensemble guidance are even more dispersive with their members with a range from a Gulf track to a track out into the open Atlantic.

My take on this is that it is far, far too early to make any definitive statements as to where this wave will go and how much it might strengthen.

On one hand, if this wave stays weak and remains at a low latitude, it could sneak towards the Caribbean where it might find more favorable conditions for development.

On the other hand, should we see quick and robust development and strengthening this week, it would probably be pulled northward into Erin’s wake and not be a threat.

My gut feeling on this is that we will probably see quite slow development from this wave and thus it’ll probably head in a general westward track reaching the eastern Caribbean at the end of this week and early this weekend. The reason why I think this is because Erin’s outflow is likely to impart quite a bit of wind shear onto it leading to it to not really develop much.

My recommendation though for those of you in the Lesser Antilles and the eastern Caribbean is to monitor this wave extremely closely throughout this week and be aware that it could be a depression or even a tropical storm by the time it reaches the islands of the eastern Caribbean on about Friday.

Beyond this, it is way, way too early to speculate where this system might go after it reaches the area around the Lesser Antilles.

As I mentioned yesterday, the weather pattern by this weekend is expected to consist of a high pressure ridge to the north of this wave that could extend fairly far west. Should this high pressure ridge remain stout & not relent and weaken, it could guide this system quite far to the west in longitude.

That said, there is the possibility of an upper level trough of low pressure to dive into the eastern United States by around the early part of next week. Depending on where exactly this system is located, the trough could be strong enough to pull it north and northeastward and guide it away from the United States.

Now, if this wave stays very far south in latitude, that trough of low pressure could miss it thus causing this system to become a threat to the East Coast of the United States or even the Gulf Coast.

As I already mentioned, the model guidance are of little use this far out in time as they have many different scenarios with each new forecast run, ranging from a Gulf threat all the way to a path that takes it safely out into the open Atlantic.

My recommendation to you is that you should monitor the progress of this wave in the coming days. For now though, it is of nothing to be overly concerned or worried about.

The next tropical weather discussion will be issued on Tuesday.

Major Hurricane Erin: It appears that Erin has been undergoing an eye wall replacement cycle since late yesterday where the original eye collapses & a new eye then forms and begins to contract. This process leads to a hurricane that does weaken for a while, but also then has a larger eye and a larger and more expansive wind field.

This means that Erin’s eye is no longer visible on satellite imagery and it seems that Erin has weakened to a Category 3 hurricane. We probably will end up seeing a new round of strengthening later today and especially tonight once Erin reorganizes itself from the eye wall replacement.

Erin seems to be heading in a west-northwesterly direction today and the ultimate track of the hurricane is going to hinge on how quickly it turns to the northwest and then to the north. The weather feature that looks to facilitate this turn is a weakness in the high pressure ridge that can now be seen in weather analysis and water vapor satellite imagery.

While the track model guidance with Erin are in good agreement in showing the hurricane making that turn to the north, they do still disagree on how quickly this turn will occur & thus how close Erin gets to the Bahamas and the North Carolina Outer Banks. It should be noted that the track guidance has been continually shifting westward in their forecasts of Erin & this has raised my concern slightly for the eastern Bahamas and the North Carolina Outer Banks. I do want to emphasize though that there are no models at all that are forecasting a direct hit on the Bahamas or the East Coast of the United States. Instead, some of the guidance are showing a close brush.

Here Are My Thoughts: As I just mentioned, the big question continues to be when and where will Erin make that turn to the northwest and north.

So, while I definitely expect Erin to make that turn to the northwest sometime on Monday and then to the north by late Tuesday and Wednesday, it looks quite possible that Erin could get to about 73 West Longitude before it begins to turn out to the northeast on Thursday.

This means that it appears that Erin will track close enough to the eastern Bahamas to probably bring them tropical storm conditions on Monday into Tuesday. I then think that Erin could track close enough to the North Carolina Outer Banks (about 150 miles or so offshore) to bring them tropical storm conditions & bands of gusty showers on Thursday.

For Those Of You In The Bahamas: It looks quite plausible that the Turks and Caicos Islands will be affected by tropical storm conditions this afternoon and tonight. This will include bands of heavy showers and some gusty winds of tropical storm force.

The Eastern Bahamas probably will see tropical storm conditions during Monday that lasts into Tuesday. This will include bands of heavy showers and tropical storm force winds at times.

For The East Coast Of The United States & Particularly The North Carolina Outer Banks: First things first, ignore the clickbait on social media, Erin IS NOT going to directly strike the East Coast of the United States. It is, however, expected to pass just offshore of the US East Coast, close enough to the North Carolina Outer Banks to perhaps bring tropical storm conditions there during the day on Thursday.

The much bigger threat to the entire Eastern Seaboard of the United States is going to be the very large waves that’ll be impacted the shore throughout this coming week. I strongly urge anyone planning on visiting the beach or going swimming from Florida all the way northward to New England to not go swimming at all. The extremely rough surf and extremely dangerous rip current threat will make it extremely unsafe to go swimming & you will be risking your life doing so.

As I just mentioned, the outer bands of Erin may make it as far west as the Outer Banks of North Carolina on Thursday leading to the possibility of gusty and squally showers that produce winds of up to tropical storm force at times. My recommendation to those of you in eastern North Carolina and especially the Outer Banks is to continue keeping a very close watch on the progress of Erin.

Further north, it does look very likely that Erin will pass far enough offshore of Cape Cod and Nantucket to not be a threat in terms of tropical storm conditions. The much, much bigger threat to the New England coastline will be the large waves, very rough surf and extremely dangerous rip current threat.

For Bermuda: It continues to look very likely that Erin will pass far enough west of Bermuda to not be a direct impact. The very large size of Erin could lead to some of the outer bands of rain to affect the island on Wednesday and Thursday.

Model Track Forecast:

Satellite Imagery:

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Area Of Disturbed Weather Located Over The Eastern Atlantic: There is a tropical wave located over the far eastern Atlantic that will need to be watched throughout this upcoming week as it heads westward.

Satellite imagery today reveals that the convection associated with the wave is quite disorganized. Analysis reveals that the environmental conditions are marginal, at best, for development west of 30 West Longitude. These marginally favorable conditions across the tropical Atlantic last until about the eastern Caribbean. A lot of this stronger wind shear is due to the outflow from Hurricane Erin.

This means that I do think that this wave will struggle to develop as it heads westward, but once Erin begins to lift to the north and northeast during the second half of this week, the conditions across the tropical Atlantic should become more favorable, just as this wave is approaching the Lesser Antilles.

My take is that I think that this wave may become a depression around Thursday or Friday as it reaches about 55 West Longitude. Also, I think we are looking at a wave that tracks further west across the Atlantic than Erin ever did. The reason why I think this is because the more it struggles & refuses to really develop, the more it’ll track with the lower level winds & not be picked up by a weakness in the high pressure ridge left behind by Erin.

My recommendation for those of you in the Lesser Antilles and the eastern Caribbean is to monitor this wave extremely closely during this upcoming week and be aware that it could be a depression or even a tropical storm by the time it reaches the islands of the eastern Caribbean around Thursday into Friday.

Beyond this, it is way, way too early to speculate where this system might go after it reaches the area around the Lesser Antilles.

The weather pattern by next weekend may consist of a high pressure ridge to the north of this wave that could extend fairly far west. Should this high pressure ridge remain stout & not relent and weaken, it could guide this system quite far to the west. That said, there is the possibility of an upper level trough of low pressure to dive into the eastern United States by around the August 24-26 time frame. It’s possible that this trough could be strong enough to pull this system north and northeastward and guide it away from the United States. It’s just as equally possible that the trough will miss this system causing it to become a threat to the Southeast coast of the US or the Gulf coast.

The model guidance are of little use this far out in time as they have many different scenarios with each new forecast run, ranging from a Gulf threat all the way to a path that takes it safely out into the open Atlantic.

My recommendation to you is that you should monitor the progress of this wave in the coming days. For now though, it is of nothing to be overly concerned or worried about.

The next tropical weather discussion will be issued on Sunday.

Major Hurricane Erin: Erin has undergone extremely rapid strengthening last night into this morning, going from a 75 mph Category 1 hurricane to now a 160 mph Category 5 hurricane at the time of this writing.

Reconnaissance aircraft have found the hurricane is rapidly strengthening with central barometric pressure falls of nearly 8 millibars per hour. The last recon pass found that Erin has a central barometric pressure of 917 millibars and maximum winds of 160 mph.

Erin’s constant and steady nearly due west track is a bit concerning as the further west it gets in longitude, the closer it will be to the Bahamas and the East Coast of the United States (especially the North Carolina Outer Banks) when it curves to the north and northeast. This due west motion by the hurricane is something that will be watched extremely closely. I will have more, including my thoughts, later on in this discussion.

Model Guidance: Erin is currently tracking to the south of all of the European ensemble and GFS ensemble guidance members. The reason why the model guidance tracks are further north than what Erin is actually moving is due to how strong it has become. This is a factor in the forecast that is going to need to be watched very, very closely.

Looking at the model guidance reveals that the more eastward track of the GFS model is due to the model forecasting a weaker storm. The European model shows a stronger storm and thus a more westward track. Since Erin is so strong right now and is expected to remain a very powerful hurricane for at least the next couple of days, the more westward tracks of the European model are preferred.

It should be pointed out that there are no ensemble members, including the ones that show Erin being a very strong hurricanes, showing a direct landfall in the Bahamas or along the East Coast of the United States. That said, the stronger ensemble members are the ones that show Erin tracking fairly far west in longitude before it turns to the north and northeast.

So, as of this morning, I am concerned that we are going to see additional shifts to the west in the forecast track of Erin leading to guidance showing a fairly close pass to the Bahamas and the Outer Banks of North Carolina.

Here Are My Thoughts: First things first, I fully expect that Erin will keep its Category 5 strength throughout the rest of today into Sunday. I also think that Erin will probably remain a powerful hurricane for the next few days.

The big question is when exactly will Erin make that turn to the northwest and then north & how far west will it track before it makes that turn.

The weather feature that will weaken the high pressure on its western side & cause Erin to make that turn is a low pressure trough now located in the Tennessee Valley. This trough is expected to push off of the Georgia coast in about a day or two. We are going to have to see how much Erin can beat back this weakness in the high pressure ridge & try to re-enforce the ridge to the north causing the hurricane to try to track further west.

So, while I do expect that Erin will probably make that turn to the northwest and then to the north in a couple of days from now, it’s possible that it could get to 72 to even 75 West Longitude before it turns out to the northeast. If this occurs, it would lead to a very brush with the North Carolina Outer Banks around Wednesday or so.

My opinion is that Erin poses more of a threat to the Bahamas and the Outer Banks of North Carolina than to Bermuda.

For Those Of You In The Northern Leeward Islands, The Virgin Islands, Puerto Rico & Hispaniola – Even though Erin is passing to the north of the northeastern Caribbean, its outer rain bands will continue to affect the northern Leeward Islands, the Virgin Islands this afternoon into tonight. These outer rain bands will spread across Puerto Rico and Hispaniola later this afternoon and persist through tonight and early Sunday.

Locally heavy rain, localized flooding, some gusty winds and high surf can be expected with these rain bands.

As For The Bahamas: I do think that Erin will pass to the east of the Bahamas on Monday night and Tuesday, but the passage of the hurricane’s eye could be fairly close to the eastern Bahamas. My current take is that Erin’s eye may pass about 100 miles or so to the east of the eastern Bahamas.

This means that this could be close enough for the eastern and northern Bahamas to be impacted by tropical storm conditions during Monday into Tuesday.

How close Erin gets to the Bahamas is something that will need to be watched extremely closely.

For The East Coast Of The United States & Particularly The North Carolina Outer Banks: Even though Erin is tracking south of all of the forecast models, I still think that Erin will very likely pass offshore of the East Coast of the United States from Wednesday to Friday of next week. I do think that there’s the possibility that Erin could get close enough to the outer banks of North Carolina to bring tropical storm conditions around Wednesday into Thursday.

My thinking as of this morning is that Erin might track as close as 100-150 miles or so offshore of the North Carolina Outer Banks during Wednesday into Thursday. If Erin does get that close, it could lead to bands of heavy rain to affect far eastern parts of North Carolina and the outer banks of North Carolina on Wednesday into Thursday. Some tropical storm force winds are possible on the North Carolina Outer Banks, but any hurricane force winds will very, very likely stay well offshore.

The much bigger impact from Erin along the entire US East Coast is going to be very high surf, dangerous waves and rip currents throughout next week.

For Bermuda: It continues to look very likely that Erin will pass far enough west of Bermuda to not be a direct impact. The very large size of Erin could lead to some of the outer bands of rain to affect the island around the middle part of next week.

Finally, as I mentioned yesterday, it’s going to be extremely crucial for that weakness in the high pressure ridge to develop over the next 2-3 days or so. In all likelihood, we will see that weakness develop and we will likely see Erin make that turn to the north and then northeast.

That said, until we actually see that turn to the northwest and north occur, all interests up and down the East Coast of the United States should continue to monitor the progress of Erin extremely closely. The areas that really need to watch Erin are the Bahamas and areas from eastern North Carolina & the North Carolina Outer Banks into coastal Virginia, coastal Maryland and Delaware.

Again though, the threat for a direct impact from Erin looks very low, as of right now.

Model Track Forecast:

Satellite Imagery:

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Two Tropical Waves Will Need To Be Watched Closely In The Eastern Atlantic Next Week: There are two tropical waves – one located near the west coast of Africa and the second located over western Africa – that will need to be watched very closely next week over the eastern Atlantic.

All of the model guidance and their ensemble members seem to be pointing towards the potential for at least one of these waves to develop as it heads westward reaching the Lesser Antilles at the end of next week. Additionally, the European ensemble model guidance are now showing upwards of a 50 percent chance for tropical development over the central Tropical Atlantic during the second half of next week.

It seems the model guidance are honing on the more western tropical wave (the only located right along the west coast of Africa) as the one to really keep a very close eye on, if you are in the Lesser Antilles and the eastern Caribbean.

The latest analysis of the environmental conditions over the central and eastern tropical Atlantic reveals that the conditions seem favorable for the development of any waves pushing westward. That said, we don’t know yet what the structure of the wave will be like & whether Erin’s outflow might impart any wind shear over the central and eastern Atlantic as it lifts northward.

That said, I do think the tropical wave now located near the west coast of Africa is one to really keep an eye on as it could not only stay pretty far south in latitude, but also develop into a tropical system as it heads westward. This could lead to a threat to the Lesser Antilles late next week & it’s something to closely watch in the coming days.

The next tropical weather discussion will be issued on Sunday.

Tropical Storm Erin: After becoming quite disorganized with the convection around Erin collapsing last night, it seems as if Erin is organizing today with a small core of deep convection found near the center of the storm. All indications seem to be pointing that Erin is very near hurricane strength right now.

I do think that it is very likely that Erin will become a hurricane as this afternoon or tonight and then strengthen into a major hurricane around Sunday or Monday.

Erin is moving in a west-northwest direction today as it’s being steered by a high pressure ridge that’s found to the north of the storm. This west-northwestward track is likely to continue through this weekend leading to Erin passing north of the Leeward Islands, the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico.

As we get into the early part of next week, a weakness in the high pressure ridge is expected to cause Erin to turn to a northwesterly direction. How quick and sharp this turn will be is still up for debate & I will discuss this extensively later on in this discussion.

Model Guidance: After trending westward in their forecast tracks of Erin, it seems that any additional westward shifts in the guidance have stopped. It also seems that the track guidance are in pretty decent agreement in forecasting that Erin will probably curve northward and then northeastward about halfway between Bermuda and the East Coast of the United States around the middle and later parts of next week.

This agreement in the guidance that are showing the safe curve to the north and northeast include the track model guidance as well as the higher resolution hurricane models & the Google DeepMind AI models.

There are still questions, however, as to how far west Erin will track before it turns due north. The answer to this question is going to be very important as it’ll determine how close Erin might get to the Bahamas and the outer banks of North Carolina. How quick of a turn to the north occurs will also be important in figuring out how close Erin might get to the island of Bermuda.

Looking at the ensemble model guidance reveals that while a majority of the members turn the storm safely to the north missing both Bermuda and the East Coast of the United States, there are a few members that do show a very close brush with the eastern Bahamas and then a very close brush with the outer banks of North Carolina.

Bottom line is that while the model guidance seems pretty set on showing a fairly safe path in-between Bermuda and the US East Coast, I do still want to watch the model trends very closely, in case they start shifting to the west again.

Here Are My Thoughts: As I already mentioned, I do think that Erin will become a hurricane as soon as this afternoon and I also think that Erin will become a powerful major hurricane by later this weekend and next week.

Based on the data that I’ve looked at today, I do think that the center of Erin will pass about 100 miles or so to the north of the northern Leeward Islands, the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico during Saturday and Saturday night.

Even though Erin will stay north of the northeastern Caribbean, the outer bands of the storm will affect the northern Leeward Islands, the Virgin Islands, Puerto Rico and Hispaniola throughout this weekend. This means that you should expect locally heavy rainfall bringing localized flooding, some gusty winds and high surf.

Looking towards next week, I agree with the model guidance in their assertion that there will be a weakness in the high pressure ridge & this should cause Erin to turn to the northwest and then to the north. When and how quickly this turn will be remains somewhat uncertain. This is very important as the evolution and position of the weakness in the high pressure ridge will determine how close Erin gets to the Bahamas, Bermuda and the North Carolina Outer Banks.

At this point, I don’t think that we’re going to see a sharp turn to the northwest and north, but instead, a more gradual turn to the northwest and then to the north seems more plausible. This means that Erin should stay just east of the Bahamas by about 100 miles or so. It also means that Erin could get close enough to the eastern and northern Bahamas to bring them tropical storm conditions during Monday into Tuesday and this is something to watch closely.

I also think that Erin will pass offshore of the East Coast of the United States during the middle and later parts of next week, but it’s possible that the storm could track as close as 150 miles or so offshore of the outer banks of North Carolina around Wednesday into Thursday of next week. While this should keep any tropical storm force winds offshore of the Carolina coastline, any sort of a closer approach could introduce tropical storm conditions to the outer banks and far eastern North Carolina around the middle part of next week.

Even though in all likelihood Erin will not directly impact the Bahamas and the East Coast of the United States, it will definitely produce very high surf, dangerous waves and rip currents up and down the US East Coast throughout next week.

Also, it seems most likely that Erin should pass far enough west of Bermuda to not directly impact the island. That said, those of you on the island of Bermuda need to closely monitor the progress of Erin in case it makes a much closer approach around the middle part of next week.

Finally, I want to emphasize that I am going to be watching the steering currents around and to the west and north of Erin extremely closely. It is going to be extremely important for that weakness in the high pressure ridge to develop. In all likelihood, we will see that weakness develop, but if it doesn’t and we see a blocking high pressure ridge remain in place over the northeastern United States, it would block Erin from escaping and instead guide it towards the Bahamas and the US East Coast.

Until we actually see the turn to the northwest and north occur, all interests up and down the East Coast of the United States need to monitor Erin extremely closely. The areas that really need to watch Erin are the Bahamas and areas from eastern North Carolina into coastal Virginia, coastal Maryland and Delaware. Again though, the threat for a direct impact from Erin looks very low, as of right now.

Model Track Forecast:

Satellite Imagery:

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Invest 98-L Located Just Offshore Of Northeast Mexico & South Texas: An area of disturbed weather, designated Invest 98-L, is curently located just offshore of coastal northeast Mexico and the lower Texas coast.

Invest 98-L is producing some deep convection today, however, reconnaissance aircraft did not find this system organized enough yesterday to consider it a depression.

There is only a few hours left until Invest 98-L moves inland into the area along the Texas-Mexico border and because of this any development into a depression or a low-end tropical storm will be extremely short-lived.

This system will spread locally heavy rain into parts of northeastern Mexico and South Texas during this afternoon with this locally heavy rain continuing through Saturday.

Additional Tropical Development Possible Over The Eastern Atlantic As We Get Into Next Week: A new tropical wave now located over western Africa is expected to push off of the coast of Africa into the eastern Atlantic during this weekend.

The model guidance such as the GFS model and the European model do show some development from this wave as it heads westward across the Atlantic. That said, the GFS model is much more aggressive with the forecast development of this wave as it approaches the Lesser Antilles and the eastern Caribbean by late next week. In fact, the GFS model forecasts the development of two tropical waves (this one and another right behind it) as they move westward next week.

Analysis of the conditions across the eastern and central Atlantic reveals that the conditions look favorable for development of any waves pushing westward. That said, we don’t know yet what the structure of the wave will be like & whether Erin’s outflow might impart any wind shear over the central and eastern Atlantic as it lifts northward.

This wave and all other tropical waves will be watched closely once it pushes into the eastern Atlantic this weekend, however, I wouldn’t overly stress or worry about it, for now.

The next tropical weather discussion will be issued on Saturday.

Tropical Storm Erin: Analysis of satellite imagery and other weather data reveals that Erin has become better organized so far today with deep convection firing near the center of the storm. In addition, some banding features have been noted on satellite imagery, which all seem to suggest that the storm is strengthening.

Erin is currently headed nearly due west as it’s being steered by a high pressure ridge to the north of the storm. This westward track is causing Erin to track south of what most model guidance have been suggesting over the last couple of days & because of this, we are going to really have to watch how close it gets to the northeastern Caribbean on Saturday.

For now, it still seems most plausible that Erin should turn just far enough to the west-northwest and then northwest to miss the northern Leeward Islands, the Virgin Islands and Puerto, but I do think that the distance it passes to the northeastern Caribbean could be closer than what was previously thought.

Additionally, Erin is expected to be moving through an environment that’s favorable for strengthening & all indications are pointing towards it becoming a hurricane by sometime on Friday. Steady strengthening is then expected this weekend as Erin passes north of the Leeward Islands, even though the environmental conditions look to be somewhat favorable. It’s possible that Erin will become a major hurricane by later Sunday or Monday.

Model Guidance: The trends in the model guidance are not our friend today as many of them have shifted closer to the northeastern Caribbean, the Bahamas and the East Coast of the United States. These trends are going to have to be watched closely to see if these westward shifts in the forecast track continue.

Even though a majority of the track model guidance have shifted westward in their forecast track of Erin since yesterday, the overall forecast track consensus is for the storm to still track north of the Leeward Islands, the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico this weekend. That said, this pass to the north of the northeastern Caribbean could be quite close with most guidance showing the center of Erin passing between 75 and 125 miles to the north of the northeastern Caribbean.

These westward shifts in the track guidance have Erin passing closer to the Bahamas and the East Coast of the United States, as compared to what the guidance showed yesterday.

The reason for the shifts westward in the model guidance is due to the models trending towards a stronger high pressure ridge that narrows the weakness in the guidance. This delays Erin’s turn to the north. Still though, guidance seems to be in good agreement in forecasting that there will be a weakness in the high pressure ridge, which will allow Erin to turn to the north in the area about halfway between the East Coast of the United States and Bermuda (latest consensus guidance shows the northward turning occurring around 70-71 West Longitude).

It goes without saying that these trends in the model guidance will need to be watched closely for any additional shifts towards a more threatening look.

Here Are My Thoughts: I do still think that Erin will pass just north of the Leeward Islands, the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico during Saturday, but this pass to the north looks quite close & the progress of Erin needs to be watched very closely.

Even though the core of the storm should stay north of the northeastern Caribbean, squalls of rain and gusty winds on the south side of the storm will affect the northern Leeward Islands, the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico beginning on Friday night and continuing through this weekend. Localized flash flooding looks quite possible across the northeastern Caribbean this weekend.

Those of you in the Leeward Islands, especially the northern Leeward Islands, the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico should keep a close eye on the progress of Erin, in case the track of the storm shifts closer to the northeastern Caribbean.

As for the Bahamas and the East Coast of the United States – I still think that a direct impact from Erin is unlikely as the weakness in the high pressure ridge should be just enough to turn it northward. That being said, there is a small chance, probably around 10 percent or so, that Erin could track far enough west to directly impact the Bahamas and the US East Coast.

Even though in all likelihood Erin will not directly impact the Bahamas and the East Coast of the United States, it will definitely produce very high surf, dangerous waves and rip currents up and down the US East Coast throughout next week.

Those of you on the island of Bermuda definitely still needs to closely watch the progress of Erin as it could certainly pose a threat to you around the middle part of next week.

Model Track Forecast:

Satellite Imagery:

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Invest 98-L Located Over The Bay Of Campeche: I’m also keeping a very close eye on Invest 98-L, which is located in the Bay of Campeche today.

Satellite imagery indicates that there is deep, but disorganized convection occurring with this system. Additionally, there seems to be some spin noted in satellite loops.

The Bay of Campeche and the southwestern and western Gulf is an area that can overproduce in terms of tropical development. The shape of the coastline in this area can increase the spin of any disturbances moving through the area causing them to quickly develop into a tropical system.

What is concerning is that the environmental conditions are quite favorable for development due to low amounts of wind shear. Fortunately though, Invest 98-L has a limited amount of time to be over water as it’ll be moving inland near the Texas-Mexico border by late Friday.

All-in-all, it would not surprise me at all to see Invest 98-L become a depression or even a low end tropical storm before it moves inland over northern Mexico and South Texas late Friday.

Even if Invest 98-L does not develop into a depression or a tropical storm, it will bring locally heavy rainfall across the lower Texas coast and the Lower Rio Grande Valley starting Friday afternoon and continuing through Saturday.

Model Track Forecast:

Satellite Imagery:

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Also Watching A Couple Of Other Tropical Waves That’ll Be Pushing Into The Eastern Atlantic: There are a couple of other tropical waves that’ll be pushing off of the coast of Africa into the far eastern Atlantic over the next several days.

Some of the model guidance are showing that the more westward positioned tropical wave may try to develop into a tropical system as it heads westward into the central Atlantic by the middle part of next week. In fact, the ensemble model guidance seems to suggest this wave may take a more southerly track and be more of a threat to the eastern and northeastern Caribbean around late next week.

The additional waves pushing off of Africa will be watched closely as we get into next week. That said, I wouldn’t stress or worry about it right now.

The next tropical weather discussion will be issued on Friday.

Tropical Storm Erin: Satellite imagery today indicates that Erin is a little better organized with a small area of deep convection noted. That said, some easterly wind shear, dry air and marginally favorable ocean water temperatures are affecting the storm and because of this, it has not been able to strengthen significantly.

Erin is heading in a westerly direction and is now located about halfway between the Leeward Islands and the coast of Africa. The further west Erin moves, the more favorable the environmental conditions will be. Because of this, I expect Erin will become a hurricane by about Friday and probably will become a major hurricane as it is passing to the north of the Leeward Islands, the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico during this weekend.

Even though Erin is moving on a westward track, it is expected that a weakness in the high pressure ridge to the north of the storm will help to turn it to the west-northwest at the end of this week and during this weekend. This turn will lead Erin to pass safely to the north of the Leeward Islands, the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico during this weekend.

Model Guidance: The overall model guidance are in excellent agreement in forecasting that Erin will be of no threat to the eastern or northeastern Caribbean.

Additionally, track model guidance seem to agree that Erin will turn to the north into that weakness in the high pressure ridge. Guidance does disagree on where exactly this turn to the north will occur.

The spread in the ensemble members range from a turn near 60-65 West Longitude, which would lead to a significant threat to Bermuda, to a turn near 70 West Longitude, which would lead to a miss to Bermuda and the East Coast of the United States, but could raise the threat slightly for Atlantic Canada.

Here Are My Thoughts: I am extremely confident that Erin will miss the Leeward Islands, the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico to the north as the storm finds a weakness in the high pressure ridge.

I do want to caution those of you in the Leeward Islands, the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico to still watch the progress of Erin. While a direct impact from the storm is highly unlikely, I do think that squalls of heavy rain and gusty winds on the southern periphery of the storm may affect the northern Leeward Islands, the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico beginning on Friday and continuing through this weekend. In addition, rough surf is also going to be a threat across much of the northeastern Caribbean, especially for the Atlantic facing beaches late this week through this weekend.

Turning to next week, I do have increasing amounts of confidence that Erin should find itself caught in that weakness in the high pressure ridge. Because of this, it looks more likely than not that the storm will turn to the northwest and then eventually to the north somewhere over the western North Atlantic.

Where I think the forecast has some uncertainty attached to it is where exactly this turn to the north will occur as there is a large range in possible tracks that the storm could take. That being said, I think that there is a very low chance for a direct hit on the East Coast of the United States and Bermuda has a much bigger potential threat from Erin around the middle part of next week.

Because of this, I urge all interests on the island of Bermuda to closely monitor the progress of Erin as it could be a big time threat for you by about middle part of next week.

For those of you along the East Coast of the United States, I would still keep a very close eye on the progress of Erin, even though the chances of a direct impact are low, as of this time. The higher threat from Erin along the East Coast of the United States next week looks to be high surf, rough seas and the threat for rip currents.

Model Track Forecast:

Satellite Imagery:

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Elsewhere Across The Atlantic, Caribbean & Gulf: One other disturbance that I am keeping an eye on is a tropical wave located over the Yucatan Peninsula. This wave is producing some disorganized shower and thunderstorm activity today & the entire disturbance is expected to push into the Bay of Campeche and the southern Gulf as we get into Thursday and Friday.

A look at the environmental conditions out ahead of this wave reveals that the wind shear values are favorable for development and because of this, I am going to keep an eye on this disturbance, just in case.

It should be noted though that none of the model guidance and their ensemble counterparts forecast any sort of development from this disturbance and most likely, nothing significant should come from this wave.

That said, it is August in the Gulf with a disturbance that is expected to move through an area of the southern Gulf that has a history of spinning up storms quickly due to the curvature of the Bay of Campeche.

This disturbance is expected to reach the northeastern Mexico and lower Texas coast during Friday into Saturday.

So, while I will be keeping a close eye on this wave, I’m not overly concerned that we’re going to see any sort of development from it.

The next tropical weather discussion will be issued on Wednesday.

Invest 97-L Located Over The Eastern Atlantic: It appears that Invest 97-L is extremely close to becoming a depression today & in fact, it would not surprise me to see the National Hurricane Center upgrade it to a Tropical Depression at 11 am EDT today.

NOTE – Just as I was finishing writing today’s discussion, I received a message from NHC saying that this system is being upgraded to Tropical Storm Erin at 11 am EDT.

A look at satellite imagery reveals that the shower and thunderstorm activity associated with Invest 97-L is looking pretty healthy & concentrated. Further analysis reveals that Invest 97-L may be producing up to 40 mph maximum winds, based on satellite data. If this is the case, then NHC may end up skipping the depression designation & immediately upgrading it to a tropical storm.

Analysis of the environment around Invest 97-L indicates that this system is being impacted by easterly wind shear & this, combined with cooler ocean water temperatures, should put a limit on how much it strengthens over the next 2 to 3 days or so.

Beyond this, the environmental conditions become much more favorable for strengthening towards the end of this week & because of this, I fully expect this system to be our first hurricane of the season.

Model Guidance: The overall model guidance are in really good agreement with their forecasts of the track of Invest 97-L. They seem to strongly suggest that this system will turn back to the west by Tuesday and head in a westerly direction through Wednesday into Thursday.

From there, guidance is still in very good agreement in showing this system turning a little more to the west-northwest and passing very safely to the north of the Leeward Islands and the Virgin Islands by Saturday.

Looking beyond this, the model guidance seems to suggest that a weakness will develop between a high pressure ridge over the Gulf and another high pressure ridge over Africa. This weakness should help to steer this system, likely Hurricane Erin at that point, to turn much more to the northwest. Usually from here, these storms will continue turning to the north and track out into the open Atlantic & probably threatening Bermuda along the way. More than likely, this will probably actually occur.

That said, there is some uncertainty in the guidance on whether the Gulf high pressure tries to build eastward and bridge the gap with the high pressure ridge over the central and eastern Atlantic. If there is any bridging in that weakness in the high pressure ridge, it could cause this system to try to track closer to the Bahamas, the East Coast of the United States and Atlantic Canada.

Here Are My Thoughts: It looks more likely than not that the environmental conditions around this system will favor strengthening throughout this week. Because of this, it looks likely that this system will be a hurricane by the end of this week.

I also think that it’s pretty likely that Invest 97-L will pass very safely to the north of the Leeward Islands and the Virgin Islands by about Saturday & because of this, I think that there isn’t anything to be concerned about in terms of impacts for the eastern and northeastern Caribbean from this system, except for swells later this week through this weekend.

Looking further down the road, I think we may still be a few more days away from absolutely ruling out a direct impact to the East Coast of the United States or Atlantic Canada. The reason why is because there is uncertainty as to how sharp of a turn to the northwest and north will occur with this system.

Because of this, there are a couple of scenarios that could play out next week with this system:

The first scenario is for the weakness in the western Atlantic to be strong enough to turn this system northward and northeastward sparing the East Coast of the United States and Atlantic Canada from a direct hit. In this scenario, Bermuda could very well be threatened, if not impacted as this system turns to the north and northeast.

The second scenario is for the upper level high pressure ridge to build back in and steer this system towards the East Coast of the United States and Atlantic Canada.

My feeling as of right now is that future Hurricane Erin should ultimately head out into the open Atlantic and not be a threat to the US East Coast. That said, Bermuda and Atlantic Canada definitely needs to keep close tabs on how sharp the north and northeast turn is next week as many guidance members do point to a threat to Bermuda and then to Nova Scotia and Newfoundland.

The Bottom Line Is That the trends for a hit on the East Coast of the United States and the Bahamas are decreasing. That said, I want to give it a couple of more days until I can absolutely assure you that the US East Coast is safe from future Erin.

Model Track Forecast:

Satellite Imagery:

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What Else Is Behind Invest 97-L: A look at satellite imagery of what’s behind Invest 97-L/Erin shows that there is another wave right on the coast of western Africa. This wave may have some chance to develop as it heads westward across the Atlantic. It should be noted that only the AI models are showing development of this wave, with other models such as the GFS and European models showing no development at all. I am skeptical of using the AI models as they haven’t done very well this season in their forecasts of development.

For now, it’s a wave to just keep an eye on, but I’m not urgently concerned that it’ll develop anytime soon.

The next tropical weather discussion will be issued on Tuesday.