There are really no changes to what I wrote on Monday in regards to the likelihood that there will be no tropical development across the Atlantic, Caribbean and Gulf of Mexico for the rest of this week right through this weekend.
As of the time of this writing, the tropical waves that are pushing off of the coast of Africa are moving a little too far north in latitude and because of this, they are moving right into an environment that’s unfavorable for development due to an overabundance of dry air.
Over the next week or two, it looks as if the latitude that the tropical waves pushing off of Africa will begin shifting southward. As this occurs, these tropical waves will be finding themselves in an environment that’s more favorable for development and when this happens, our quiet period will end very quickly.
Despite what you might have heard on social media or elsewhere, this hurricane season has not been a bust. In fact, the amount of energy produced by the 5 named storms we’ve already had is about three times higher than usual at this point in the hurricane season. The reason why it’s seems “quiet” is due to the fact that there have been far less in the way of naming every system this season. To put things in perspective, at this point in 2020, we’d already had 12 named storms and as of right now, we’re at just 5 named storms. One difference between this season and the 2020 hurricane season up to this point is that there were quite a few “throwaway” and sloppy storms during the 2020 season until Laura formed in late August. This season so far we’ve already had 3 legitimate hurricanes and only one “throwaway” storm (Chris).
The point is that even though we’re in a lull right now, the setup is likely to change towards an active one in about a week or so from now leading me to believe that September could be very, very bad in terms of hurricane impacts.
In fact, the ensemble guidance continue to point towards a gradual shift towards a more active tropical development pattern at some point next week and certainly by Labor Day weekend (August 31-September 2). The ensemble model guidance seems to be showing two areas to really watch for potential tropical development – the first from the northwestern Caribbean into the Gulf of Mexico during next weekend (August 31-September 1) and the second over the area between the Lesser Antilles and the coast of Africa as we enter the month of September.
In addition, for what it’s worth, the CFS model has been fairly consistent in showing the switch being turned on between about August 28 and September 2. The CFS model is also forecasting the development of at least five storms between August 28 and September 15 with up to two of these storms making it into the Gulf of Mexico.
Bottom line is that the lull is not going to last and things are probably going to get very busy sooner rather than later. Use this quiet time to review your hurricane preparedness plans and supply kits.
The next tropical weather discussion will be issued on Saturday.