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All indications are pointing towards the increasing likelihood of a high impact winter storm that’ll impact parts of the Southern and Southeastern United States, as well as across the Mid-Atlantic states this weekend. The consistency in the various model guidance in showing this could end up being a destructive ice storm for the I-20 corridor and upwards of 3 to 6 inches of snow across the Tennessee Valley. In addition, this storm could very well bring 1 to 2 feet of snow to parts of the Mid-Atlantic states, including Washington, DC, Baltimore and Philadelphia.

The most worrying part of this weekend’s winter storm is going to be the potential for a very destructive ice storm along the I-20 corridor, including Dallas, Shreveport and Atlanta. Given the data that I’m looking at right now, this could end up being a very high-impact ice storm leading to the crippling of travel, major power outages and widespread tree damage. Those of you in the areas from Dallas through Shreveport, Atlanta to Charlotte need to prepare the same way as you would for a hurricane. This includes buying non-perishable food, water, gas, and charge devices. It wouldn’t be a bad idea to trim those vulnerable tree limbs close to your home. You can absolutely forget about travel anywhere near and north of I-20. Be aware that some ice impacts could occur as far south as I-10 in southeastern Texas and western Louisiana, but the huge ice impacts will occur the closer you get to I-20.

This entire storm looks start over the Deep South as early as late Friday night and continue throughout Saturday and Saturday night before slowly winding down on Sunday.

Across the Mid-Atlantic states, this storm looks to begin on Saturday morning and continue throughout Saturday afternoon, Saturday night and Sunday. This storm will then slowly wind down on Sunday night and Monday.

Forecast Winter Weather Impacts This Weekend (Travel IS NOT Recommended In Areas In Yellow & Red):

Forecast Ice Accumulations For This Weekend:

Forecast Snow Amounts This Weekend:

The snow that occurred last night into this morning from the Florida Panhandle into parts of Alabama and Georgia looks to be an appetizer for a much bigger winter storm threat next weekend across a large part of the Deep South.

All of the major model guidance, including the GFS, European and Canadian models seem to agree that the potential is there for a widespread, high impact snow and ice event next weekend across the Deep South, including central and north Texas, northern Louisiana, much of Arkansas, central and northern Mississippi, northern Alabama, central and northern Georgia and much of the Carolinas.

A wave of low pressure may form over the northern Gulf is currently forecast to form over the Gulf on Saturday of next weekend. This low pressure system may then lift northeastward and head near the coastal Carolinas by next Sunday and next Monday. Cold air pressing southward into the Deep South may run into precipitation and moisture associated with this low pressure system leading to the possibility of winter weather impacts across parts of the Deep South next weekend.

At this point, it is way too soon to get into much more details than this. For now, consider this a heads up and be aware that snow and freezing rain could be a threat across central and north Texas, northern Louisiana, much of Arkansas, central and northern Mississippi, northern Alabama, central and northern Georgia and much of the Carolinas next weekend leading to potential serious disruptions.

A Serious Freezing Rain Threat Could Occur Across Parts Of The Deep South Next Weekend

Snow Also Looks To Be A Possible Threat Next Weekend In Parts Of The South:

Summary: Severe thunderstorms are expected on Friday from the central Gulf coast into parts of the lower Mississippi Valley and the Tennessee Valley. Damaging winds and a few tornadoes look to be the main threat. The area of most concern looks to be across much of Louisiana, central and southern Mississippi and western Alabama.

Details: An area of low pressure is expected to push across the Great Lakes region and towards southeastern Canada during the day on Friday. A cold front is expected to extend southwestward from this low pressure system. This frontal system is expected to push eastward across the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys during Friday.

It is expected that the area of most concern in terms of severe weather will lie from the central Gulf coast into the lower Mississippi Valley and the Tennessee Valley. It is expected that a strengthening area of low-level warm and humid air will lift northward ahead of the front and cover much of the lower Mississippi Valley during Friday. This, in turn, will lead to an increase in strong to severe thunderstorms by Friday afternoon with this severe weather threat continuing through Friday evening.

The area of relative maximized severe weather with damaging winds and a few tornadoes looks to be across much of Louisiana, central and southern Mississippi and western Alabama during Friday afternoon and Friday evening.

As I mentioned yesterday, this does not look like any sort of a severe weather outbreak. Instead, this just looks to be one of the first severe weather events of 2026 across the Deep South.

Summary: Severe weather is a possibility on Friday across the lower Mississippi Valley and across parts of the Tennessee Valley. Damaging winds and perhaps a few tornadoes look to be the main threat.

Details: An area of low pressure is expected to push into the Great Lakes region by Friday. A frontal system is expected to extend southward from that low pressure system into the Ohio Valley and the ArkLaTex region.

Out ahead of this front, warm and somewhat humid air is expected to push northward across the Deep South as we get into Friday.

A line of strong to severe thunderstorms capable of producing damaging winds and possibly a tornado is expected to push eastward during the morning across the lower Mississippi Valley and in particular across southern Arkansas and much of Louisiana.

As we get into the mid and late afternoon hours of Friday and Friday evening, an area of low pressure may form along this front and track across the Tennessee Valley. The formation of this low pressure will help to strengthen the amount of low-level moist air that pushes northward from the Gulf. Because of this, an increase in the severity of thunderstorms is expected from late Friday afternoon through Friday evening leading to a risk of damaging winds and a few tornadoes across southwestern Tennessee, much of Mississippi and northern Alabama.

One thing that I do want to stress is that this is not looking like any sort of severe weather outbreak, but instead the first severe weather threat of 2026 across the Deep South.

There is some possibility of severe weather during the day on Friday across the lower Mississippi Valley, as well as across parts of the Tennessee Valley and the lower Ohio Valley.

The weather maker that could produce this severe weather is going to be a strong low pressure system that’s expected to head northeastward from the southern Plains states on Thursday to the Great Lakes region by Friday. In addition to the severe weather, this strong storm system is also likely to bring heavy rain to the Plains states and snow to parts of the Rocky Mountains by the middle part of this week.

As this storm system moves into the Great Lakes, plenty of low-level moisture will surge northward from the Gulf leading to a somewhat favorable setup for severe weather. One factor that might be lacking is the amount of forcing and unstable air that might be available to tap into. Should this factor not pan out, then the severe weather risk may end up not being all that robust.

For now though, I do think that there is enough evidence in the data to support the potential for severe weather on Friday across northern Louisiana, eastern Arkansas, northern Mississippi, far northern Alabama, much of Tennessee, much of Kentucky, southern Illinois, southern Indiana and southern Ohio.

This will be something to keep an eye on as the week progresses.

A record warm Christmas Day is expected across a large part of central and southern United States with some locations recording the warmest Christmas Day on record.

Some of the areas that will see record high temperatures on Christmas Day include Wichita, Kansas, Childress, Texas and Kansas City. Unfortunately, you will need to go to the Dakotas or northern New York and northern New England to see a postcard snowy Christmas Day as 60 Degree temperatures will make it as far north as northern Virginia and parts of the lower Ohio Valley.

Forecast High Temperatures On Christmas Day:

A huge 180 in the temperatures are expected next week as an Arctic blast will lead to a deep freeze across much of the southern United States by New Year’s Eve. Freezing temperatures will reach as far south as the Gulf coast & north and central Florida by next Tuesday morning and New Year’s Eve morning. Low temperatures may fall into the 40s as far south as parts of South Florida by New Year’s Eve morning.

Forecast Temperatures For Next Tuesday Morning:

Forecast Temperatures For New Year’s Eve Morning:

The La Nina conditions that occurred during the 2025 Hurricane season seems to be now fading. All indications seem to be pointing towards El Nino conditions occurring during the 2026 Hurricane season. This potentially means that we could be looking at a rather inactive hurricane season in 2026, based on what I’m looking at right now.

As I just mentioned, weak La Nina conditions will be transitioning into neutral ENSO conditions within the next month or two. Beyond this, ENSO guidance seem to be all pointing towards the potential of El Nino conditions developing by the time we get into the 2026 hurricane season. That being said, the models that forecast ENSO conditions do not have great skill this far out, so we’ll see whether we actually see an El Nino develop during the 2026 hurricane season or not.

A first look at the seasonal model guidance for the 2026 hurricane season reveals that the warmer ocean waters will be found across the sub-tropics rather than the tropics during the peak of the hurricane season. This type of configuration potentially means that a lid could be placed on hurricane activity as dry air intrusions could be found in the deep tropics.

Also, the seasonal model guidance seem to be forecasting a weaker than average Bermuda high pressure system during the peak of the hurricane season. Should this occur, it could mean a majority of the tropical systems that occur may end up staying north of the Caribbean and east of the United States.

My Thoughts Based On This Initial Information Is That the Atlantic Basin may be fairly unfavorable for Atlantic hurricane activity in 2026. Because of this, odds are right now that below average hurricane activity may end up occurring. That being said, take these first initial thoughts with a pound of salt as there is a lot of time for things to change.

Even though we are about one week away from the hurricane season “officially” ending, some of the model guidance are forecasting the possibility of one more storm to form in the western Caribbean during the first week of December. Because of this, I wanted to send out this update to take a look at it.

The GFS model has been consistently forecasting that a tropical system will form over the southwestern Caribbean and then push northwestward into the western Caribbean during the first couple of days of December. The GFS model then forecasts this tropical system to be pulled northward into the Gulf by about December 4-5 and then head towards the northern or eastern Gulf coast by about December 6. The GFS has been forecasting this scenario since about the middle part of last week.

Taking a look at the other model guidance, none of the other operational models currently forecast the scenario that the GFS model is showing.

As for the ensemble guidance, obviously since the GFS model is showing tropical development, the GFS ensemble model guidance is showing something similar. The GFS ensemble guidance has a few members that point to tropical development to occur in the southwestern Caribbean around December 1 with most of these members forecasting a track into the northwestern Caribbean by about December 3.

The European ensemble model guidance shows a quiet western Caribbean with no members forecasting tropical development.

Interestingly, one of the Google Deep Mind AI ensemble model suite does show a strong signal for tropical development in the western Caribbean during the first week of December. Meanwhile another ensemble suite from Google Deep Mind is very weak with the tropical development chances in the far western Caribbean.

Here Are My Thoughts: Given that the GFS model is the only model that is showing western Caribbean tropical development, I am very skeptical that it will occur. The reason why is that the GFS model is notorious for spinning up phantom storms this time of year & I do think that this is what’s occurring here.

Additionally, a look at the Atlantic Basin reveals that environmental conditions are extremely unfavorable for tropical development due to strong wind shear. This includes all of the Gulf, all of the Caribbean and all of the Atlantic. Because of this, anything that does try to develop would probably be sheared apart quickly.

That being said, this is something that I’m going to be keeping an eye on, just in case nature trolls us and develops a December tropical system.

Before I get into updating you about the freezing temperatures tonight along the Gulf Coast, I wanted to say thank you once again to everyone that has helped us so far in terms of donating. The help that everyone has extended is appreciated far more than you will ever know. So, a huge thank you to you!

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Now onto the latest weather update:

A pretty cold air mass on the backside of a robust cold front has made its way as far south as the Gulf of Mexico today. This air mass promises to bring freezing temperatures as far south as the I-10 corridor from southeastern Louisiana through southern Mississippi, southern Alabama and the Florida Panhandle tonight. Freezing temperatures will also push as far south as parts of north-central Florida tonight. A freeze this far south this early in the season is pretty unusual and because of this, numerous record low temperatures will be tied or broken by Tuesday morning.

If that wasn’t enough, this cold air mass is bringing accumulating snow to areas of the Smoky Mountains, the Ohio Valley and parts of the central Appalachian Mountains. Lake effect snow is also occurring in lower Michigan, northern Indiana, northeastern Ohio, northwestern Pennsylvania and western New York State.

It is expected that this Arctic air with freezing temperatures will be short-lived & temperatures will rebound quickly by Wednesday.

All is quiet across the Atlantic, Caribbean and Gulf as we are about to head into the weekend. It appears that no tropical development is expected for at least the next 10 days, if not longer. The reason for this has to due with the very high amounts of wind shear and very dry air that is present across much of the Atlantic Basin. These unfavorable environmental conditions are expected to persist for at least the next 10 days, if not through the last 3 weeks that are remaining in this hurricane season. Because of this, we might be able to close the books on the 2025 Atlantic Hurricane Season.

Now, let’s turn out attention to the central and eastern parts of the United States where it appears that the first Arctic blast of the season will occur for a couple of days early next week.

A robust cold front is expected to push eastward across the central and then eastern United States this weekend & this cold front will introduce a blast of pretty cold air for this time of year.

Current indications seem to point towards record low temperatures occurring on Monday morning and Tuesday morning, especially across the Southeast.

Frost and freeze conditions will make it as far south as the I-10 corridor of Louisiana, Mississippi, Alabama and the Florida Panhandle on Tuesday morning. Additionally, low temperatures will be in the teens and 20s across areas from the Tennessee Valley northward into the Ohio Valley and Midwest.

Fortunately, this bout of cold weather will not last long at all, as temperatures will rebound quickly by the middle part of next week.