Western Gulf Of Mexico Tropical Development Possible Next Week: The area that is of most concern right now in terms of tropical development is the expected complex interaction between an area of disturbed weather (Invest 90-L) located over the northwestern Gulf of Mexico and a tropical wave that will be pushing into the Bay of Campeche this weekend.
It looks quite possible that Invest 90-L and that Bay of Campeche tropical wave will merge leading to the formation of a large area of disturbed weather over the western Gulf of Mexico during the first half of next week.
Given the potential for favorable environmental conditions over the western Gulf of Mexico next week, I am beginning to become somewhat more concerned that whatever develops over the western Gulf of Mexico could be something that may cause trouble along coastal Texas and coastal Louisiana.
So over this weekend, Invest 90-L is expected to push to the south and merge with the energy, moisture and spin associated with the Bay of Campeche tropical wave late this weekend into early next week. What this ultimately becomes remains to be seen, but at the minimum I could see this system become a very wet and disorganized disturbance over the western Gulf of Mexico by early next week.
What is a bit worrying is that the amount of wind shear over the western Gulf of Mexico will become favorable for development. This could very well lead to the development of a strengthening tropical storm that meanders along the Texas coast next week before moving inland into southern Louisiana later next week.
By far, the greatest threat from this complex mess will be heavy rainfall throughout next week across all of south Texas, central Texas and southeast Texas. This heavy rain will spread into southern Louisiana during the second half of next week. Anyone along the Texas coast and the Louisiana coast should prepare for a lot of rain next week.
Additionally, if the wind shear values do become favorable for development, it’s quite possible that this system could end up becoming a moderate to strong tropical storm that meanders near the Texas coast. This is something that’ll need to be watched closely.
Bottom line is that this is going to be slowly evolving weather situation that lasts for days next week and my advice is that those of you along coastal Texas and coastal Louisiana to monitor things closely.
Forecast Rainfall Amounts For Next Week:
Model Track Forecast:
Satellite Imagery:
The next tropical weather discussion will be issued on Saturday.