Western Caribbean Tropical Development Is Possible Near The Very End Of This Month Or Around The Very First Part Of June: It still looks like the period from late this month into the first part of June may see some sort of tropical development occur over the western Caribbean.
An upward motion pulse of the Madden Julian Oscillation is forecast by guidance to reach the Caribbean during the second half of this month and then pass across the Atlantic during the first week of June. This passage of the MJO is anticipated to produce a favorable background state and enough atmospheric vorticity that leads to tropical development in the area around the western Caribbean during late this month or at the very latest during the first part of June.
The latest model guidance is showing a forecast of lowering barometric pressures near western Cuba during the first week of June. In addition to this, the extended range European model does show increased chances of tropical development over the western and southwestern Caribbean from the last week of this month through the first week of June.
In addition to this, the very long range model guidance such as the CFS model is definitely hinting that the western Caribbean could be an area to really watch for tropical development around the last week of this month.
This is something that I’m going to be keeping a close eye on. That said, it’s nothing to be overly concerned about or worried about, for now.
Very Significant Tornado Outbreak Possible Across Southern Nebraska, Much Of Kansas & Western & Central Oklahoma Monday Afternoon Into Monday Night: A significant threat for severe thunderstorms is expected across western and central Oklahoma and much of Kansas (especially south-central Kansas) starting on Monday afternoon and continuing through a good part of Monday night. This particular area has the potential to see multiple strong to violent long-track tornadoes, large to giant hail of up to 3 to 4 inches in diameter and damaging wind gusts.
This very significant severe weather threat includes Topeka & Wichita, Kansas, Tulsa & Oklahoma City, Oklahoma.
In terms of timing, it appears that severe weather will first develop from southern Nebraska through central Kansas during the early part of Monday afternoon and then develop across western Oklahoma by mid-afternoon Monday. The peak of the severe weather looks to be from about 4 pm to 11 pm Monday across southern Nebraska, a large part of Kansas and western and central Oklahoma. This is when I think we will see the occurrence of multiple strong to violent long track tornadoes.
The next tropical weather discussion will be issued on Wednesday.