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The strong low pressure system which has been sitting and spinning off of the Mid-Atlantic coastline this week & bringing gusty onshore winds, coastal flooding and beach erosion from the North Carolina Outer Banks through the Mid-Atlantic coastline to the south coast of New England is now classified as a sub-tropical storm & is named Josephine.

Current weather analysis indicates that Josephine is still a sub-tropical storm with 65 mph maximum winds. Josephine is currently heading in a northeasterly motion and it is expected that the sub-tropical storm will quickly head northeastward out into the open Atlantic as we get into Friday and this weekend. Additionally, it is expected that this storm will begin to transform into a powerful extratropical storm by tonight or Friday. It is also expected that the storm will strengthen into a hurricane-force extratropical storm by Friday before weakening this weekend.

Fortunately, this transformation and strengthening will occur out in the open Atlantic & thus this storm will have no additional significant impacts on the New England or Mid-Atlantic coasts & will be a marine problem.

Satellite imagery and weather data indicates that a strong non-tropical low pressure system is currently located offshore of the Mid-Atlantic coast near 36.7 North Latitude, 69.3 West Longitude at the time of this post. This storm system is designated Invest 93-L by the National Hurricane Center, but has yet to start transforming into a sub-tropical or tropical storm. That being said, careful analysis of the data indicates that this low pressure system may be starting to shed its fronts & thus may be starting its transformation into a sub-tropical storm.

It is expected that Invest 93-L will remain nearly stationary offshore of the Mid-Atlantic coast the rest of today right into Thursday. After this, it is expected that this low pressure system, which may be a sub-tropical storm by this point, will head northeastward and move out into the open North Atlantic and away from the East Coast of the United States.

Until then, persistent onshore winds will produce additional coastal flooding and beach erosion from southern New Jersey through the North Carolina Outer Banks the rest of today into Thursday. Additionally, winds are expected to gust up to 40 mph at times along the south coast of New England and across Long Island the rest of today into Thursday.

Elsewhere Across The Atlantic, Caribbean & Gulf: There are no other areas of concern across the rest of the Atlantic Basin & it appears that the chances for additional tropical development are extremely low through this weekend & probably through next week.

That said, it should be noted that model guidance are showing the possibility of another low pressure system forming near the Bahamas and then heading northeastward out into the open North Atlantic during the first half of next week. All-in-all though it appears that any low pressure system should stay non-tropical & not be a serious threat to any land areas. One thing that this low pressure system might do is produce widespread shower activity across the Bahamas and across eastern and southern parts of the Florida Peninsula during this weekend into the first half of next week.

Current weather analysis today indicates that there is a non-tropical low pressure system that’s located off of the North Carolina coast near 33 North Latitude, 70.5 West Longitude. This storm system is expected to linger off of the North Carolina and Mid-Atlantic coastline throughout a good part of this week & there is a chance that it could transform into a sub-tropical storm or a tropical storm.

A look at the latest model guidance reveals that the Google Deep Mind ensemble model now shows a 30 percent chance that this low pressure system could become a tropical storm in the next couple of days. This is a decreased chance for development from this model as compared to what they were showing just a day or two ago.

The European ensemble model guidance seems to be showing a 50-60 percent chance for tropical development of this low pressure system offshore of the North Carolina and Mid-Atlantic coast during the middle and later parts of this week.

Here Are My Latest Thoughts: The impacts along the Mid-Atlantic and North Carolina coastline are expected to be the same, whether this low pressure system becomes a tropical storm or not.

These impacts are expected to include gusty onshore winds that will gust up to 40-50 mph, moderate amounts of coastal flooding, ocean overwash and beach erosion along the coastline from North Carolina’s Outer Banks through the Virginia Tidewater to southern New Jersey from today all the way until Thursday. It appears that the worst of the impacts over the next few days will occur along the northern North Carolina Outer Banks northward to Virginia Beach & Hampton Roads and along the lower Delmarva and Eastern Shore of Maryland.

Additionally, serious impacts in the way of coastal flooding and beach erosion is likely on Hatteras and Ocracoke Islands on North Carolina’s Outer Banks. Wave heights of up to 10 to 12 feet are expected to occur along the oceanside beaches in eastern Maryland and eastern and southeastern Virginia over the next few days.

I do still think that there is a fairly decent chance that this low pressure system will transform from a non-tropical storm into a tropical storm by about Wednesday or so. The reason why I think this is due to the fact that this low pressure system will sit nearly stationary offshore of the North Carolina coast putting it over the very warm waters of the Gulf Stream for the next 2 to 3 days or so. Because of this, I think that there is a better than 50 percent chance that the low pressure system will transform from a non-tropical storm into a 45-65 mph tropical storm in about 2-3 days or so from now.

All interests along the Mid-Atlantic and North Carolina coastlines should continue to monitor this storm system & its coastal impacts very closely.

Weather analysis today reveals that an area of low pressure is developing offshore of the Mid-Atlantic coastline. It is expected that this low pressure will hang around near the Mid-Atlantic and North Carolina coastline for at least the next several days. The pressure gradient between this low pressure system and a big high pressure system over New England will produce some gusty onshore winds, large waves, beach erosion and coastal flooding along the entire Mid-Atlantic coastline and along the North Carolina coastline throughout this weekend through next week.

Additionally, it is quite possible that this low pressure system could transform from a non-tropical storm into a sub-tropical storm or even a tropical storm towards the middle part of next week.

A look at the most recent weather model guidance reveals that most of them are now showing this low pressure system to transform into a tropical storm near the North Carolina coastline by about the middle part of next week.

The Google Deep Mind ensemble model is now showing a 60 percent chance of this low pressure system becoming a tropical storm around the middle part of next week near the North Carolina coast.

The European ensemble model guidance now shows a 50-60 percent chance of this low pressure system becoming a tropical storm around the middle part of next week near the North Carolina coastline.

Here Are My Thoughts: It is fully expected that the pressure gradient between this low pressure system, which will sit just offshore of the North Carolina coast for several days, and a big high pressure system over New England will produce persistent gusty onshore winds with wind gusts of over 40 mph along the entire Mid-Atlantic coast from New Jersey to Virginia, as well as along the North Carolina coastline throughout this weekend right through all of next week. This will lead to prolonged coastal flooding and beach erosion this weekend through next week along the Mid-Atlantic and North Carolina coastline.

Now, I do think that there is fairly decent chance that this low pressure system will transform from a non-tropical storm into a tropical storm by about the middle part of next week. The reason why I think this is due to the fact that this low pressure system will sit nearly stationary near the North Carolina coast putting it over the very warm waters of the Gulf Stream for several days next week. Because of this, I think that there is a better than 60 percent chance that the low pressure system will transform from a non-tropical storm into a 45-65 mph tropical storm during the middle and later parts of next week. This will be something that I’ll be keeping close tabs on.

Either way, this storm system is fully expected to bring coastal issues from gusty onshore winds of over 40 mph in gusts to beach erosion and coastal flooding from coastal New Jersey southward to the coastline of North Carolina throughout this weekend & throughout next week. All interests along the Mid-Atlantic and North Carolina coastlines will need to continue to monitor this storm system very closely.

There are signals in the weather data that suggests a robust coastal storm could form off of the North Carolina coast by about the middle part of next week. This low pressure system looks to form along a stalled frontal boundary that’ll be positioned off of the US East Coast. Not only could we see a robust low pressure system form next week off of the North Carolina coast, it could also try to become a subtropical or tropical storm. Any storm system, whether its tropical or non-tropical will produce some very gusty winds, high surf and coastal flooding to much of the Mid-Atlantic coastline and along the coast of the Carolinas throughout next week.

A look at the most recent weather model guidance reveals that they are not only showing the development of a low pressure system, but they seem to suggest it’ll transform into a tropical storm towards the later parts of next week. The Google Deep Mind ensemble model is showing a 30 percent chance of this low pressure system becoming a tropical storm around the middle part of next week near the North Carolina coast. A look at the European ensemble model guidance shows about a 40 percent chance for the low pressure system to become a tropical storm around the middle part of next week.

Here Are My Thoughts: At the very least, I do think that we’ll see a robust low pressure system form along that frontal boundary near the North Carolina coast. This should occur by around Monday or Tuesday. There is expected to be a tight pressure gradient between this low pressure system and a strong high pressure system located over the northeastern United States. This will lead to several days next week of very gusty onshore winds, high surf and coastal flooding along the entire Mid-Atlantic coast and along the coasts of North Carolina and South Carolina.

It should be noted that any low pressure system that does form is expected to remain nearly stationary near the North Carolina coast putting it over the very warm waters of the Gulf Stream. This could lead to this low pressure system to transition into either a sub-tropical storm or a tropical storm during the middle and later parts of next week. This will be something that I’ll be keeping close tabs on.

Either way, this storm system is very likely to bring coastal issues from gusty onshore winds to beach erosion and coastal flooding from coastal New Jersey southward to the coastal Carolinas throughout next week. All interests along the Mid-Atlantic and Carolina coastlines will need to monitor this storm system very closely.

All is quiet now across the Atlantic, Caribbean and Gulf after the departure of Isaias.

A look at the environmental conditions reveals that strong to very strong amounts of wind shear are covering much of the Atlantic, Caribbean and Gulf today and it appears that this will not change anytime soon. Because of this, I am not expecting the occurrence of any sort of tropical development across the Atlantic Basin throughout this week right through at least this weekend.

One area that might need to be watched next week is in an area from the southern Gulf eastward into the western North Atlantic. It is expected that a frontal boundary will stall out in this area. At this point, the model guidance are barely hinting at possible tropical development in the western North Atlantic to the east of the Bahamas. Most model guidance are only showing a 10-20 percent chance for tropical development in the area to the east of the Bahamas next week.

So, while it’s remotely possible that we could see some sort of tropical system form over the western North Atlantic to the east of the Bahamas next week, it would pose no threat to any land areas as it would likely head eastward out into the open Atlantic.

Before I leave for work at Trader Joe’s, I wanted to send this out again, in case you didn’t see it. Also, I would like to thank those of you who have wished me well on the start of my new job. It is appreciated very, very much!!

It’s pretty scary right now having to wait two more weeks until we receive my first paycheck, especially where I am over drafted on our checking account. So, any help you can send our way would be appreciated more than you will ever know as we’re really trying to get over that hump to the first paycheck.

Original Post:
As you know all know by now, I started my new job at Trader Joe’s as a crew member on Wednesday. So far the job is going great & Trader Joe’s is a great place to work for.

The reason why I had to enter the workforce again after 13 years is due to a vast reduction in income with Crown Weather and a significant increase in expenses over the last couple of years.

The immediate problem that we’re facing right now is that it’s going to be two weeks until I receive my first paycheck from Trader Joe’s. Because of this, we continue to face serious financial difficulties & I’m hoping that you might be able to send some help our way & get us over the hump that we’re currently facing. Any help you can provide would be appreciated more than you will ever know!!

If you would like to help us out by using your credit card or debit card, please go to the following link – https://buy.stripe.com/8x2fZiaU4f4UcgO3Uxfw40c

If you would like to help us out using PayPal, please go to the following link – https://www.paypal.com/paypalme/crownweather

Finally, if you would like to help us out using Venmo, please go to the following link – https://account.venmo.com/u/crownweather

On behalf of Crown Weather Services and Crown Weather Plus, I would like to once again thank you for supporting us here at Crown Weather.

Rob Lightbown
Crown Weather Services

Remnants Of Isaias: This will be the final update on Isaias.

The remnants of Isaias are moving inland and the center is currently located over Alabama. Isaias made landfall near Destin, Florida at about 8:30 pm CDT last night as a 105 mph hurricane. Isaias dealt a serious blow on the western Florida Panhandle and across southern Alabama with multiple credible reports of wind gusts of over 100 mph when it made landfall. These include a 114 mph wind gust in Milton, a 92 mph wind gust at Pensacola Regional, a 102 mph wind gust at Pensacola City Hall. This was definitely a Category 2 to Category 3 hurricane hit. Additionally, there are nearly 900,000 power outages across the Florida Panhandle, southern Alabama and western Georgia.

For the rest of this weekend, the remnants of Isaias are expected to produce rain and the threat for tornadoes across the southeastern United States into the Mid-Atlantic states.

The threat for tornadoes are expected this afternoon into tonight across much of South Carolina into eastern Georgia. This threat for tornadoes will shift northward into eastern North Carolina, southeastern Virginia and across parts of the Delmarva.

Rain is expected throughout this weekend across much of the East Coast of the United States with rain totals expected to be in the range of 1 to 3 inches.

As of 5 pm EDT/4 pm CDT today, Isaias is still a major hurricane with 115 mph maximum winds. Tropical storm conditions are now impacting southern Alabama as well as much of the coastal parts of the Florida Panhandle at the time of this post. Even across inland parts of the Florida Panhandle, the winds are beginning to approach tropical storm force.

The weather conditions are expected to continue to deteriorate rapidly over the next 3-4 hours across the entire Florida Panhandle and across southern Alabama.

Based on my latest analysis, the eyewall of Hurricane Isaias is still expected to reach the coastline of the western Florida Panhandle by about 7 pm CDT or so this evening & this is when the worst part of the hurricane will begin.

The area that I think that will experience the eyewall of Hurricane Isaias is in an area from Gulf Shores and Pensacola eastward through Destin and Fort Walton Beach to about Santa Rosa Beach. In this area, expect full-blown hurricane conditions for several hours this evening between about 7 pm and midnight CDT with wind gusts of over 100 mph expected. In addition, a storm surge of up to 8 to 9 feet above ground level is expected across the western Florida Panhandle tonight.

Tropical storm force winds are expected to affect areas as far east as Tallahassee and the Big Bend area of Florida this evening and as far west as southeastern Mississippi during this evening.

Further inland, all inland areas of the western Florida Panhandle and far south-central Alabama will be impacted by hurricane force winds during the overnight hours of tonight. This means that these hurricane force winds will bring down a lot of trees and produce widespread power outages and cause quite a bit in the way of wind damage up to and beyond I-10 in the western Florida Panhandle as well as across south-central Alabama.

It should be noted that tropical storm force winds with wind gusts of over 60 mph are expected as far north as central Alabama and western Georgia, including Birmingham and Atlanta during the day on Saturday. These strong winds are likely to bring down trees and cause widespread power outages across a large area of central Alabama and western Georgia during Saturday.

Again, it needs to be emphasized that areas including Gulf Shores, Pensacola, Destin, Fort Walton Beach and Santa Rosa Beach will take the full brunt of this hurricane between 7 pm CDT and midnight CDT this evening with wind gusts to over 100 mph & a storm surge of up to 8 to 9 feet expected.

More updates will be sent out as needed.

Isaias remains a 120 mph Category 3 hurricane as of this Friday afternoon. Weather analysis reveals that tropical storm conditions are now just reaching the western and central Florida Panhandle and the weather conditions are only expected to go downhill from here across the entire Florida Panhandle throughout the rest of this afternoon.

Based on my analysis, the eyewall of Hurricane Isaias is expected to reach the coastline of the western Florida Panhandle by about 7 pm CDT this evening & this is when the worst part of the hurricane will begin. The area that I think that will experience the eyewall of Hurricane Isaias is in an area from Gulf Shores and Pensacola eastward through Destin and Fort Walton Beach to about Santa Rosa Beach. In this area, expect full-blown hurricane conditions for several hours this evening between about 7 pm and midnight CDT with wind gusts of over 100 mph expected.

Additionally, the core of Isaias is expected to travel fairly far inland into inland parts of the western Florida Panhandle and perhaps into far south-central and southeastern parts of Alabama during the overnight hours of tonight. This means that hurricane conditions that will lead to a lot of downed trees, widespread power outages and wind damage will occur all the way to I-10 in the western Florida Panhandle & perhaps even as far north as across the Alabama-Florida line to Dothan.

Again, it appears that areas including Gulf Shores, Pensacola, Destin, Fort Walton Beach and Santa Rosa Beach will take the full brunt of this hurricane between 7 pm CDT and midnight CDT this evening.

More updates will be sent out as needed.