Major Hurricane Beryl: The eye of Beryl made landfall at about 11:10 am Eastern Time on Carriacou Island in the Grenadines, just 30 miles north of Grenada as a 150 mph Category 4 hurricane. Since then, reconnaissance aircraft have indicated that Beryl has strengthened a little more since then with the last pass showing a central barometric pressure down to about 945 millibars. If this strengthening continues, then it is not out of the question that Beryl could become a Category 5 hurricane at some point later today, tonight or Tuesday.
There is very little in the way of historic precedent for the strength that we see Beryl at this early in the hurricane season. Some statistics that are just astounding and terrifying:
The Grenadines between Grenada and St. Lucia have never been directly impacted by a Category 3 or more hurricane since official hurricane historical data began back in 1851. The closest were Ivan in 2004 which directly impacted Grenada and Allen in 1980 which directly impacted St. Lucia.
Beryl is now tied with Dennis of 2005 as being the second strongest July hurricane in the Atlantic. Should Beryl become a Category 5 hurricane, it would become the second Category 5 hurricane on record in the Atlantic prior to August 1 with the first being Emily of 2005.
These are astounding and remarkable records that Beryl is setting and is a MAJOR, MAJOR warning sign for how bad the rest of the hurricane season is likely to be.
Beryl’s Forecast Through The Caribbean: Beryl is expected to track westward to west-northwestward across the Caribbean towards Jamaica and the Cayman Islands over the next 2 to 3 days. It should be pointed out that the environmental conditions are expected to remain favorable enough for Beryl to remain a very strong hurricane right through all of Tuesday.
It does look like Beryl’s eye should pass south of Jamaica during the day on Wednesday, but the hurricane looks to still be close enough to bring heavy rain, a storm surge and hurricane force winds to the island during Wednesday. The south side of the island looks to see significantly more impacts from Beryl than the north side of the island. Those of you in Jamaica, be ready for hurricane conditions during Wednesday.
As for the Cayman Islands, at this point, it appears that Beryl should pass far enough south of the islands to not be a major hit. That said, tropical storm conditions look likely in the Cayman Islands during late Wednesday night into Thursday. Squally weather and very rough seas are also likely Wednesday night and Thursday.
By the time Beryl reaches the area around the Yucatan Peninsula and Belize, it is expected to be in a much weaker state due to the expectation of increasing wind shear impacting the storm beginning on Wednesday. As for the track, it looks fairly likely that a high pressure ridge over the southern United States should push Beryl inland into the southern Yucatan Peninsula just north of Chetumal late Thursday night or Friday morning as perhaps a 75-85 mph hurricane.
Beryl’s Future In The Gulf Of Mexico: The big question for late this week and this weekend is whether that high pressure ridge over the southern United States will steer the storm west-northwestward towards eastern Mexico or will the high pressure ridge weaken enough to cause a little more of a northwest turn towards northern Mexico or South Texas.
Before everyone gets all worried, let me stress that there may not be much left of Beryl after its encounters with strong wind shear and then the land interaction with the Yucatan Peninsula. In fact, much of the intensity guidance seems to suggest it may barely be a tropical storm when it takes its trip across the Bay of Campeche and the western Gulf of Mexico this weekend.
At this point, I still think that there is a much higher probability that the stubborn high pressure ridge should help guide Beryl west-northwestward across the Bay of Campeche and into eastern Mexico. That said, the idea of the high pressure ridge weakening somewhat this weekend leading to a more northwest track towards the lower Texas coast cannot be ignored, but I think that it is still a very low probability event, for now.
Model Track Forecast:
Satellite Imagery:
Invest 96-L Located Over The Central Tropical Atlantic: It looks like the chances of Invest 96-L significantly developing are decreasing. The reason why is due to the outflow from Beryl is imparting shear and other unfavorable conditions onto Invest 96-L. In fact, satellite imagery today reveals that the shower and thunderstorm activity has become a lot more disorganized.
It is looking likely now that the unfavorable conditions that Beryl is imparting onto Invest 96-L will continue for the next several days leading to very slow development, if any development occurs at all. This is great news because it means that Invest 96-L will not be a tropical storm or hurricane when it reaches the Lesser Antilles on Wednesday. In fact, I suspect it’ll still be a tropical disturbance producing squally weather and gusty winds across the central and southern Lesser Antilles throughout Wednesday.
Beyond this, while it’s probably a good idea that we should keep an idea on Invest 96-L when it crosses the Caribbean later this week into the weekend, it appears that the environmental conditions should be unfavorable for development.
The next tropical weather discussion will be issued on Tuesday.