Crown Weather
Discussions

It continues to look as if tropical development could be a concern in the western Caribbean beginning as soon as the middle part of this month.

All of the model guidance continues to point to the possibility that we should be looking at the western Caribbean as an area for tropical development by about the weekend of May 17-18.

The GFS model has been the most aggressive with this potential development. The aggressiveness of the GFS model’s forecast should be taken with a lot of skepticism as there is a bias in this model in forecasting erroneous tropical cyclones in the western Caribbean during May into early June. That said, the GFS model does forecast a tropical system to form near the coast of Central America during the weekend of May 17-18 & for it to gradually head northward towards the northwestern Caribbean by about May 21.

While the Canadian and European operational models do not show any sort of tropical development, there are a fair amount of ensemble model members that do show possible tropical development in the southwestern Caribbean during the weekend of May 17-18. Most of the ensemble members that do show development show a track that takes any system to the northeastward towards Jamaica, eastern Cuba and Haiti by May 19-20.

In addition, the European ensemble model guidance does still forecast a 30 percent chance for tropical development in the southwestern Caribbean by the weekend of May 17-18. Also, the longer range European ensemble model guidance is pointing towards a 30-40 percent chance of tropical development in the southwestern Caribbean during the week of May 19 with these 30-40 percent chances continuing through the week of May 26.

Also, the CFS model seems to be pointing towards the possibility of storminess and at least one area of disturbed weather over the western Caribbean during the week of May 19.

Here Are My Thoughts: Based on everything that I have looked at, I do think that there’s definitely the chance for some sort of tropical development to occur in the southwestern Caribbean in the area just north of Panama by the weekend of May 17-18.

One thing that is prominent in the data is the fact that there is likely to be a robust upward motion pulse pushing across the Caribbean by the end of next week through next weekend (May 16-18). This will lead to a favorable background environment for tropical development.

Even though wind shear values across the entire Atlantic into the Caribbean are very unfavorable for tropical development right now, there are signals in the data that suggests that favorable amounts of wind shear will be present over the western Caribbean by next weekend. In fact, it is possible that there could be lower than average wind shear values over the western Caribbean by next weekend.

All-in-all, I think that there is still about a 20 percent chance that we will see some sort of tropical development occur in the southwestern or western Caribbean as soon as next weekend (May 17-18). Any system that does try to form in the southwestern or western Caribbean could be guided from the western Caribbean northeastward towards Cuba, the Bahamas and up near the East Coast of the United States.

This is something that I will continue to keep a close eye on. That said, it’s nothing to be overly concerned about or worried about, for now.

The next tropical weather discussion will be issued on Friday.

Before I get into our latest tropical weather discussion, I am asking & in fact, I am BEGGING for your financial help. The reason for this is due to the fact that we are significantly behind on some of our bills. Also, we are struggling to pay for the extremely high cost of everything, including utilities, groceries and other expenses. PLEASE, PLEASE, PLEASE help us out!!!

There are a couple of ways you can help us out:

The first is sending a donation our way by either going to our PayPal link at https://www.paypal.com/paypalme/CrownWeatherServices or you can donate using our Venmo link at https://account.venmo.com/u/crownweather.

The second way to help us out pertains to those of you who are not already lifetime subscribers to Crown Weather Plus as we have a special half-price sale on a lifetime subscription. For more information on this lifetime subscription sale at half the regular cost, go to the following link – https://crownweather.com/cws-plus/half-off-liftime-subscription-special/. This sale goes until 11:59 pm Eastern Time tomorrow night.

Now let’s get into the latest tropical weather discussion shall we?

Analysis of satellite imagery, weather data & short-range model guidance reveals that there are no areas of immediate concern in terms of tropical development across the Atlantic, Caribbean and the Gulf.

While tropical development looks unlikely throughout this upcoming week, it does look like there will be the development of a low pressure system in the area halfway between Bermuda and the southeastern Bahamas during the middle part of this week. This low pressure system is expected to be short-lived, non-tropical in nature and should weaken and dissipate by the end of this coming week.

Looking Beyond This – I think that it’s possible that we will see tropical development occur in the western and southwestern Caribbean during the second half of this month.

The longer range model guidance seems to be gradually agreeing on the possibility of an area of disturbed weather to form over the western and southwestern Caribbean starting during the weekend of May 17-18 and continuing into late May. The part that the model guidance does disagree on is when and where any development might occur.

The GFS model guidance is showing some development to occur by May 19 in the deep southwestern Caribbean.

The GFS ensemble model guidance seems to agree with the GFS operational model, but seems to be pointing towards any development might occur towards the northwestern Caribbean by May 19. There are quite a few members of the GFS ensemble model that point to the area to watch is from the northwestern Caribbean to perhaps as far northeast as the northwestern Bahamas.

The Canadian model forecasts no development at all over the next 10 days.

While the European operational model forecasts no development at all, some of its ensemble members do hint at possible disturbed weather in the area of the Caribbean just west of Jamaica by the weekend of May 17-18. Also, the longer range European ensemble model guidance is pointing towards a 30-40 percent chance of tropical development in the southwestern Caribbean during the week of May 19 with these 30-40 percent chances continuing through the week of May 26.

Also, the CFS model seems to be pointing towards the possibility of storminess and at least one area of disturbed weather over the western Caribbean during the week of May 19.

Here Are My Thoughts: As I mentioned in my discussion on May 1, it looks as if an upward motion pulse of the Madden Julian Oscillation will push into the Caribbean and the Atlantic during the second half of this month. This could lead to a favorable pattern for tropical development to occur in the Atlantic Basin starting during the week of May 19.

One thing that I wanted to point out is that the model guidance this time of year has a habit of erroneously forecasting tropical development in the western Caribbean, when in the end, the development actually occurs in the eastern Pacific instead. It’s quite possible that we are seeing the same thing here with the model guidance.

That all said, I do think that there is probably about a 20 percent chance that we will see some sort of tropical development occur in the western Caribbean during the week of May 19. My reasoning for this is because while climatology does favor development in the eastern Pacific this time of year, the forecast amount of wind shear over the western Caribbean will be lower than average. These lower than average wind shear values combined with a favorable background state could lead to tropical development to occur in the western Caribbean during the week of May 19. Any system that does try to form in the western Caribbean during the week of May 19 may be guided from the western Caribbean northeastward towards the northwestern Bahamas and then up near the East Coast of the United States.

This is something that I’m going to be keeping a close eye on. That said, it’s nothing to be overly concerned about or worried about, for now.

The next tropical weather discussion will be issued on Tuesday.

Today, we begin issuing our regular tropical weather discussions for the 2025 Atlantic Hurricane Season here at Crown Weather Services.

Current analysis reveals that there are no areas of immediate concern in terms of tropical development across the Atlantic, Caribbean and the Gulf.

Even though tropical development is not expected for at least the next few days, the model guidance has been occasionally hinting at the possibility of some sort of development to occur in an area between north of the Lesser Antilles westward to near the northern Bahamas and near the Southeast coast of the United States. This is something that the models have been hinting at for at least the last several days and I do think it is something that should be watched, just in case.

The most recent model guidance do show some very differing solutions. The GFS model and also the Canadian model currently shows a low pressure system forming well to the northeast of the Leeward Islands by early next week and moving westward to near the area halfway between the Bahamas and Bermuda by the middle and later parts of next week. It seems the European model also shows a similar idea, but is weaker with its forecast strength.

My take on this is that any low pressure system that forms between the Bahamas and north of the Leeward Islands next week should be quite weak in strength & probably will be non-tropical in nature.

Looking Beyond This – It seems the European ensemble model guidance is hinting at two areas that might need to be watched for possible tropical development chances near the end of this month.

The first area is in the southwestern and western Caribbean where the ensemble model guidance is showing upwards of a 30-40 percent chance for tropical development during the last week of this month. This matches the overall background pattern which seems to be pointing towards an upward motion pulse of the Madden Julian Oscillation to reach the Caribbean and the Atlantic during the second half of this month. This could lead to a favorable pattern for tropical development to occur in the Atlantic Basin.

A second area to possibly keep an eye on during the last week of May is right near the East Coast of the United States where the European ensemble model is showing upwards of 10-20 percent chance for tropical development during the last week of this month.

Interestingly, the CFS model does show an area of disturbed weather forming in the southeastern Bahamas right during the middle part of this month & then moving northeastward as a developing sub-tropical system to just west of Bermuda.

Bottom Line Is That while there might be some areas to keep an eye on, especially during the second half of this month, there is nothing that really stands out at me as a likely area for tropical development.

The next tropical weather discussion will be issued on Sunday.

The 2025 hurricane season forecast from Colorado State University was released this past Thursday and like our forecast, they are forecasting a somewhat above average season in terms of activity. CSU is forecasting 17 named storms, 9 of those storms becoming hurricanes and 4 of those hurricanes becoming major hurricanes. This is comparable to our forecast in which we released on March 20. In our forecast, we are forecasting 16 named storms, 7 of those storms becoming hurricanes and 4 of those hurricanes becoming major hurricanes.

There are a couple of reasons why we are expecting a busier than average hurricane season.

The First Reason Is The Likelihood Of ENSO-Neutral Conditions During This Summer Into This Fall: Weak La Nina conditions currently exist across the eastern Pacific and it seems rather likely that we will see neutral ENSO conditions during the peak of the Atlantic hurricane season forecast.

Neutral ENSO conditions is an enhancing influence on tropical activity during the hurricane season. This means that at least somewhat above average activity can be expected this hurricane season in terms of the number of tropical storms and hurricanes.

A Second Reason Are The Ocean Water Temperatures: Ocean water temperatures are currently warmer than average across the western and central Atlantic & is currently slightly below average over the eastern tropical Atlantic. Warmer than average ocean water temperatures are also currently occurring over the eastern subtropical Atlantic.

It should be noted that there is a positive correlation between above average ocean temperatures over the Caribbean and the eastern subtropical Atlantic during April and an active Atlantic hurricane season.

Analog Years: The analog years that Colorado State University used for their forecast are very close to what we used for analog years.

CSU went with the following analog years that seem to be a close match with what the 2025 hurricane season might be like – 1996, 1999, 2006, 2008, 2011 & 2017.

Our analog forecast here at Crown Weather used the following years for what the 2025 hurricane season may be like. They are 1895, 1916, 1959, 1967, 1996, 1999, 2008, 2011, 2017 & 2021.

Landfall Threat Forecast: There are no changes at all with my landfall threat forecast. In the map attached to this discussion, I have added my expectations of the most likely potential tracks of tropical systems this season.

There are still three areas that I’m most concerned about for this upcoming season in terms of a tropical storm or hurricane impact.

The First Area Is the area from the Carolinas northward to Southern New England. As I mentioned previously, all indications seem to be pointing towards this being an East Coast concentrated season for tropical storm or hurricane threats. Based on this, in addition to model guidance and analog data, I do think that a corridor from South Carolina and North Carolina northward to Southern New England could be an area to really watch.

The Second Area Of Particular Concern Is across the far northeastern Caribbean, including the far northern Leeward Islands, the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico.

Model guidance and analog data seems to be pointing towards the possibility of any tropical systems moving westward from the central and eastern tropical Atlantic to begin curving west-northwest and northwest just before they reach the Caribbean. This leads to the potential for these tropical systems to directly impact the northeastern Caribbean before they either head further west towards the Bahamas or the East Coast of the United States or curve northward into the open Atlantic.

Another Area Of Some Concern Is the area from the northwestern Caribbean northward to the central Gulf coast where any tropical disturbances moving westward may begin to strengthen by the time they reach the northwestern Caribbean and then head for the central Gulf Coast.

Even though your area may have a low or medium risk this season, be aware that any small fluctuations in the upper level weather pattern at the “wrong” time could threaten the low or medium risk areas.

Finally, I am pushing up the date of the start of regular tropical weather discussions for the 2025 Atlantic Hurricane Season. I now expect to begin issuing regular tropical weather discussions on Thursday, May 1.

The reason why is because there are some subtle signs in the very long model guidance that there could be some sort of tropical development sometime during early or mid-May. Very long model guidance has been somewhat consistent in showing this scenario & because of this, I am pushing up the start date of tropical weather discussions to May 1.

Summary: This upcoming hurricane season looks to average a little above average in terms of the number of storms that occur. All indications seem to point towards neutral ENSO conditions occurring during the peak of the hurricane season. This combined with above average ocean temperatures in the Gulf and across the subtropics should help to produce an above average hurricane season. One factor that might negate a really active hurricane season is that the subtropics may end up more above average than the deep tropics leading to more stable air to occur. This, in turn, would lead to tropical systems having a more difficult time developing and waiting to develop until they are out of the deep tropics.

Additionally, I do think that this could be an East Coast season where most of the tropical storm and hurricane threats are concentrated along the East Coast of the United States. Two other areas stand out as potential areas of risk in terms of tropical storm/hurricane threats – One is the central Gulf Coast and the second is across the northeastern Caribbean.

The Numbers: 16 Named Storms, 7 of those storms becoming Hurricanes and 4 of those hurricanes becoming Major Hurricanes (Category 3 or higher on the Saffir-Simpson scale).

Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE) Index Forecast: I am forecasting an ACE index this year of 140, which signals that this will probably be an above average season.

ENSO Conditions: All data is pointing towards neutral ENSO conditions by the time we reach June, July and August. These neutral ENSO conditions are forecast to remain in place right through this Fall.

The prospects of neutral ENSO conditions is an enhancing influence on tropical activity during the hurricane season. This means that at least somewhat above average activity can be expected this hurricane season in terms of the number of tropical storms and hurricanes.

Sea Surface Temperatures: Areas from the central and western Gulf through the Caribbean are currently warmer than average with below average ocean temperatures found across the central and eastern Tropical Atlantic. This overall look in ocean temperatures is cooler than what we saw at this time last year.

The latest model guidance seems to be pointing towards a scenario where areas of the Atlantic north of 20 North Latitude are warmer than average as compared to the deep tropics throughout this hurricane season. This could set up a scenario where tropical systems wait to really get going until they are north of 20 North Latitude or wait until they reach the Gulf.

Analog Years: These are the analog years that seem to be a close match right now to what the 2025 hurricane season may be like. They are 1895, 1916, 1959, 1967, 1996, 1999, 2008, 2011, 2017 & 2021.

This is our “hot spot” map which shows which areas were impacted the most during the 10 analog years I have listed:

Landfall Threat Forecast: There are three areas that I’m most concerned about for this upcoming season in terms of a tropical storm or hurricane impact.

The First Area Is the area from the Carolinas northward to Southern New England. As I mentioned previously, all indications seem to be pointing towards this being an East Coast concentrated season for tropical storm or hurricane threats. Based on this, in addition to model guidance and analog data, I do think that a corridor from South Carolina and North Carolina northward to Southern New England could be an area to really watch.

The Second Area Of Particular Concern Is across the far northeastern Caribbean, including the far northern Leeward Islands, the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico.

Model guidance and analog data seems to be pointing towards the possibility of any tropical systems moving westward from the central and eastern tropical Atlantic to begin curving west-northwest and northwest just before they reach the Caribbean. This leads to the potential for these tropical systems to directly impact the northeastern Caribbean before they either head further west towards the Bahamas or the East Coast of the United States or curve northward into the open Atlantic.

Another Area Of Some Concern Is the area from the northwestern Caribbean northward to the central Gulf coast where any tropical disturbances moving westward may begin to strengthen by the time they reach the northwestern Caribbean and then head for the central Gulf Coast.

Even though your area may have a low or medium risk this season, be aware that any small fluctuations in the upper level weather pattern at the “wrong” time could threaten the low or medium risk areas.

Finally, we will begin sending out regular tropical weather discussions for the 2025 Atlantic Hurricane Season on Monday, May 12th.

2025 Atlantic Tropical Cyclone Names:
Andrea
Barry
Chantal
Dexter
Erin
Fernand
Gabrielle
Humberto
Imelda
Jerry
Karen
Lorenzo
Melissa
Nestor
Olga
Pablo
Rebekah
Sebastien
Tanya
Van
Wendy

I’ve been pretty busy the last few weeks researching and analyzing all of the factors and signals that go into making a hurricane season active or not active.

I’ll continue analyzing the data and then write up the 2025 hurricane season forecast over the next couple of weeks or so.

I plan on having the 2025 hurricane season sent out to you by or before Monday, March 31.

There are some things that I’ve found that I wanted to share with you concerning the 2025 hurricane season.

First, it appears that the overall season should be near to slightly above average in terms of activity. My current thinking is for a total of 16 named storms, 7 of those storms becoming hurricanes and about 3-4 of those hurricanes becoming major hurricanes. Overall net activity looks to be above average with about 144 percent of normal in terms of the amount of energy tropical systems exert on the Atlantic Basin.

Second, it appears that the current weak La Nina conditions probably will warm a little to a neutral ENSO state during this summer into this autumn. Neutral ENSO conditions historically have led to overall above to very above average activity across the Atlantic Basin.

Finally, the most important aspect of any hurricane season is where any tropical storms or hurricanes make landfall. This is an area that we have exceled in forecasting for many past seasons. My initial analysis of the data seems to be pointing towards a couple of areas that could be of particular concern in terms of tropical storm or hurricane threats this season.

First Area is I think this could be a East Coast year with areas from the Florida Peninsula northward through the Carolinas, Mid-Atlantic States and Southern New England at risk of being impacted by at least one or two tropical storms or hurricanes this season.

A Second Area Of Concern might be along the western and central Gulf Coast from Texas & Louisiana eastward to southern Alabama. Data seems to be hinting that this may be an area to watch for a tropical storm or hurricane impact this season.

As for the Caribbean, current data suggests that there may be a lack of tropical activity across much of the Caribbean this season. In fact, very long range model guidance seems to be pointing towards below average to well below average rainfall across much of the Caribbean throughout this summer and autumn. One area that might be an exception may be across the far northeastern part of the Caribbean, including the far northern Leeward Islands, the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico. This area of the Caribbean may be at least threatened by at least one or two tropical storms or hurricanes this season.

I’ll be analyzing the impact part of the forecast a lot more over the next couple of weeks. Because of this, there might be changes to the impact part of my forecast by the time I release the forecast at the end of this month.

Again, I should have the full 2025 hurricane season forecast sent out to you by or before Monday, March 31.

The 2024 Hurricane Season officially ends today. In all, we ended up with 18 named storms, 11 of those storms becoming hurricanes and 5 of those hurricanes becoming major hurricanes. It was a hyperactive and very impactful hurricane season. The Accumulated Cyclone Energy index (ACE) was 161.7, which is certainly a hyperactive season.

The 2024 Atlantic hurricane season will certainly be remembered for the Appalachian flood disaster that Hurricane Helene brought. It will also be remembered by the serious impacts that Hurricane Milton brought to Florida shortly after Helene’s impact. I fully expect to see both Helene and Milton be retired as names in the post season. We cannot forget Beryl, which was a Caribbean Category 5 hurricane in early July.

The total damage from the 2024 Hurricane Season will likely exceed $150 billion in damages based on some reliable estimates I’ve seen.

How Did My Preseason Forecast Do? Back on March 13, I forecasted that the 2024 hurricane season would be an extraordinarily active hurricane season in terms of both number of storms and also in the amount of potential impacts across the Caribbean and along the US Coastline (especially the Gulf Coast). It did end up being an extremely impactful season, however, the number of storms fell short of what I forecasted.

This is what I forecasted back on March 13:
25 Named Storms (18 named storms, so I did not verify there).

12 Hurricanes (11 Hurricanes, so I pretty much verified).

6 Major Hurricanes (5 Major Hurricanes, so again, I pretty much verified).

Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE): 225 (161.7, which fell short of what I forecasted).

Our Forecast That I Sent Out In March:

The Actual 2024 Hurricane Season Activity:

The reason why I forecasted such a busy season back in March was due to the combination of extremely warm ocean waters, the expectation of La Nina conditions and a overall favorable look for development in the Atlantic. Much of this did verify. The big surprise was how quiet the period from mid-August to early September was. While it threw a monkey wrench into the forecast, the extremely active late season hurricane activity certainly made up for that quiet period.

Now, how did my impact forecast do? Back in March, I forecasted that I thought that the northwestern Caribbean, the northeastern Caribbean, the area from the Bahamas through the Florida Peninsula into the eastern Gulf of Mexico would be particularly at risk from hurricane activity during the 2024 season.

Overall, my forecasts of a very impactful season for the northwestern Caribbean, the eastern Gulf of Mexico and the Florida Peninsula verified very well. The activity over the northeastern Caribbean as well as across the Bahamas was much, much less than what I forecasted, which is, obviously, great news.

I did forecast a high risk for a tropical storm or hurricane impact across the northwestern and north-central Gulf Coast and we did have 2 hurricane landfalls, one on the middle and upper Texas coast and one in southeastern Louisiana.

I also did forecast a high risk of a tropical storm or hurricane impact along the coast from Georgia to the Mid-Atlantic States. This ended up not really verifying, although Debby did bring tropical storm conditions to the Georgia and South Carolina coastline.

From this point, I will shift my attention to monitoring the weather across the southern United States and the eastern United States. I’ll certainly be sending out updates over the next 6 months covering significant winter storms or significant severe weather events. I will also be starting to take a look at what the 2025 hurricane season may be like over the next few months and will send out my forecast probably during March or early April.

As always, THANK YOU for being a subscriber to Crown Weather Plus. Today is Small Business Saturday & Monday is Cyber-Monday. A gift of a Crown Weather Plus subscription to a loved one would both help my business and also keep your loved ones safe and well-informed about weather information. Go to https://crownweather.com/cws-plus/lifetime-subscription-special/ for the subscription sale we are running this weekend.

Additionally, any donations are always immensely appreciated and help us with the costs of running a very small business. Your subscriptions and other monetary support completely funds us as it is the only source of income we have. Any support in the way of subscriptions or donations are helping a very small business rather than a huge corporation. To donate, just go to our PayPal donation page at https://www.paypal.com/paypalme/crownweather .