The overall forecast for Helene hasn’t really changed since my last update.
The latest reports from reconnaissance aircraft show that Helene has strengthened to a Category 2 hurricane with 100 mph winds and a central barometric pressure of 960 millibars.
The weather is beginning to get rough across the Peninsula of Florida with rain bands from Helene pushing onshore.
The environment that Helene is expected to move over today will be very favorable for quick strengthening. This is why we’re expecting the hurricane to strengthen quickly over the next 12-18 hours and likely reach AT LEAST Category 3 intensity.
There are two factors that might work towards preventing Helene from becoming a total monstrous nightmare high end Category 4 or Category 5 hurricane.
The first is that it will be moving so fast in forward speed later today and tonight that it’ll run out of time to continue strengthening before it makes landfall.
The second factor is that the eye wall of the hurricane is actually made up of two concentric eye walls, instead of the usual one. As long as this is present, the strengthening of the hurricane will be slowed down. No guarantees on that, but it is a possible factor.
Even if Helene miraculously falls a little short of its current forecast strength of 130 mph (don’t count on it!), it’s simply too late for anything to fall apart to prevent a major, life taking, catastrophic disaster for areas from the Panhandle and Big Bend area of Florida through parts of Georgia, the Carolinas and eastern Tennessee.
Bottom Line Is That Helene is still expected to be a catastrophic major hurricane before and during its landfall in the Big Bend area of Florida this evening with major to catastrophic impacts expected from the eastern Florida Panhandle through the Big Bend area of Florida into parts of the west coast of Florida, mainly from Tampa and points north.
Storm Surge: A storm surge of 15 to 20 feet is still expected along the Gulf Coast of Florida from Apalachee Bay through the Big Bend area of Florida. I TRULY hope everyone has gotten out of this area as a storm surge like this is just not survivable. Storm surges are still expected to reach 20 feet above normal water levels in parts of coastal northwest Florida.
This 15 to 20 foot storm surge will spread inland as far as 10 miles across the Big Bend area of Florida and because of this a huge area of low-lying “dry land” adjacent to Apalachee Bay and the northern Nature Coast will become part of the Gulf of Mexico and be under 10 to 20 feet of rushing water.
This WILL BE a catastrophic and unsurvivable storm surge for Apalachee Bay. PLEASE, I BEG YOU, take all evacuation orders seriously!!
If you are located east of the landfall point, which includes the entire west coast of Florida, a major surge event is almost guaranteed. This includes Tampa Bay where a 5 to 8 foot storm surge is expected and would be the worst surge event since the 1921 Tampa hurricane. Also, a 3 to 5 foot storm surge is expected across all of southwest Florida.
It needs to be pointed out that the storm surge will likely begin to arrive along the eastern Florida Panhandle, Apalachee Bay, the Big Bend area of Florida and the west coast of Florida during this morning and only get worse from there.
I WILL BE BLUNT AGAIN – If you have been told to evacuate, YOU NEED TO LEAVE NOW!!! Go several miles inland to higher ground. The expected surge impacts from Helene are without living precedent and highly likely to happen. RUN INLAND FROM THE WATER!!
Wind: The wind impact from Helene will be widespread and very destructive in some areas.
It is likely that tropical storm force winds of 40-65 mph, which will easily knock out power and damage trees, will occur across all of Florida starting this morning in the Keys and South Florida Thursday morning and then push northward into North Florida by this afternoon.
The really severe hurricane force winds with Helene are expected to spread unusually far inland due to how strong the hurricane will be and how fast it’ll be moving. Wind gusts of 80-100 mph can be expected across the Central & Eastern Florida Panhandle, including Tallahassee, the Big Bend area of Florida, the Nature Coast of Florida and across southern Georgia.
The absolutely worst and catastrophic winds that exceed 115-125 mph can be expected along the coast from Steinhatchee to Apalachicola and then spread inland through Tallahassee towards Thomasville during Thursday night.
So: if you’re in Apalachee Bay, the Big Bend, and Tallahassee, your realistic worst case scenario is a hurricane that’s much, much worse than what Michael was like for you. If you don’t think that your house will withstand 100-plus mph winds (I’m looking at those of you with prefab homes, modular homes and trailers), head west!! Pensacola and Destin should be far enough. Also, if you live in a home with tall trees all around, you might want to strongly consider evacuating.
Finally, if you are evacuating, turn off your water and if you have it, turn off your natural gas line that goes into your home.
Okay, time to get a little sleep (I haven’t gone to bed yet). I will have a new update sent out to you by early afternoon or so with the latest on Helene.