Crown Weather
Discussions

With the turn of the calendar page, we are now entering the active months of the Atlantic hurricane season (August, September & October) where a large majority of the activity and impacts occur. Right now, there are no areas that warrant immediate concern in terms of tropical development across the Atlantic, Caribbean and Gulf.

There are a couple of areas, however, that I continue to keep an eye on:

The First Area That I’m Watching Is near and offshore of the Carolinas where a stalled frontal system will remain in place throughout this weekend into next week. Along this front, it is expected that at least a couple of low pressure systems will form and head east-northeastward into the open Atlantic.

It is possible that some sort of development could occur with the low pressure system that forms just offshore of the North Carolina coast on Sunday and Monday and heads east-northeastward into the open Atlantic. Model guidance such as the GFS model, the Canadian model and the European model and their ensemble counterparts seem to show this system organizing just enough to perhaps become a depression as it heads out into the open Atlantic next week.

All-in-all, if any of the low pressure systems do become a depression next week as they head east-northeastward into the open Atlantic, they will not pose a threat to any land & they likely will remain fairly weak.

It is something that I am keeping an eye on and I’ll have updates as needed.

The Second Item That I’m Watching Closely Is the potential for a notable uptick in tropical development chances starting as soon as later next week and continuing through the week of August 11. This potential uptick in tropical development chances will coincide with the upward motion pulse of the Madden Julian Oscillation, which will be pushing into the Atlantic Basin starting next week and will remain in place through the middle and possibly later parts of this month. This upward motion pulse will allow for conditions to be more conducive for any westward moving tropical waves to develop.

Model guidance such as the GFS ensemble model guidance and the European ensemble model guidance seem to agree that a tropical wave pushing westward across the central and eastern Tropical Atlantic may try to develop into a tropical system later next week as it approaches the Leeward Islands. The ensemble model guidance then seems to point towards anything that forms may track near the Bahamas and the Southeast coast of the United States by around August 13.

The ensemble model guidance has the support of the Google Deep Mind AI weather model, which also suggests a tropical wave becoming a tropical system before it reaches the Leeward Islands later next week. The ensemble members of the AI model then seems to suggest any tropical system to head for an area somewhere between the eastern Gulf and the southeastern coast of the United States by about August 13.

The tropical wave that the models are latching onto for potential tropical development later next week is currently located over western Africa. This wave is expected to push off of the coast of Africa into the far eastern Tropical Atlantic during this weekend and then head westward across the eastern and then central Tropical Atlantic during next week.

A look at the current environmental conditions across the eastern and central Tropical Atlantic reveals that the wind shear values aren’t all that favorable for development. There are strong amounts of wind shear found from about 40-45 West Longitude eastward to the coast of Africa. West of 45 West Longitude, the wind shear values do become more favorable for development and this is probably why the model guidance delay any sort of development until this wave approaches the Leeward Islands.

Here Are My Thoughts: I think that the tropical wave that’ll be pushing off of the African coast this weekend will certainly need to be watched closely as it heads westward across the eastern and central Tropical Atlantic next week.

Now I do think that this wave will struggle for a while due to sinking stable air and strong amounts of wind shear that’ll be found across the eastern and central Tropical Atlantic. These conditions may become more favorable near the Leeward Islands and because of this, tropical development may become a concern late next week into next weekend as this wave moves near or right over the Leeward Islands and the northeastern Caribbean.

Bottom line is that, I will be keeping a very close eye on this system next week as it heads westward from the coast of Africa to the Leeward Islands. That being said, I do think that the chances for development are quite low, probably less than 20 percent. The reason why is because I think the sinking stable air and strong wind shear may put quite a bite into this wave & even when the conditions become more favorable for development, there may not be much left of the wave to develop.

The next tropical weather discussion will be issued on Tuesday.

While things are fairly quiet across the Atlantic, Caribbean and Gulf, it does look like things will probably start becoming much more active once we head towards mid-August or so.

An upward motion pulse of the Madden Julian Oscillation, which promotes rising air and storminess is currently moving across the central and eastern Pacific. It is expected that this upward motion pulse of the Madden Julian Oscillation will find its way into the Atlantic starting next week and with it, there is likely to be increased chances for tropical development.

Because of this, there are some areas of interest that I am keeping an eye on:

The First Area That I’m Watching Is near and just offshore of the US Southeast coast. A frontal boundary is expected to stall from the Carolinas eastward into the western North Atlantic by this weekend. Several low pressure systems are likely to form along this front and move east-northeastward.

My guess is that these low pressure systems will remain non-tropical in nature and will remain linked to the frontal boundary. Because of this, the tropical development chances near and offshore of the southeast coast of the United States are very low. That said, it is something that I will be keeping an eye on, just in case.

The Second Item That I’m Keeping An Eye On Is a couple of tropical waves over the central and eastern Tropical Atlantic. One wave is located near 45 West Longitude and the second wave is located near 30 West Longitude. There is very little convection occurring with either wave and development is not expected anytime soon.

It is anticipated that these two waves will merge as they move west-northwestward and pass over the Leeward Islands by about Friday into Saturday. While development is not expected, this wave may bring some squally weather to the Leeward Islands during Friday into Saturday.
Beyond this, it is expected that this tropical wave will reach the Bahamas by early next week where there is some minor interest from the model guidance of it trying to develop. The UKMET model has the most interest in forecasting development from this wave as it shows it becoming a depression in the northwestern Bahamas by early next week and then head for the Southeastern United States during the middle and later parts of next week as a tropical storm.

Other than that, just the European ensemble model guidance does have a couple of members that hint at development later next week north of the Bahamas.

For now, I think the chances of development between the Bahamas and the US Southeast Coast next week are pretty low (less than a 25 percent chance). That being said, this tropical wave will be monitored very closely in the coming days, in case it does try to develop.

The Third Item That I Will Be Keeping A Close Eye On Are the follow up tropical waves that will be pushing off of the coast of Africa over the next couple of weeks. As I mentioned earlier in this discussion, an upward motion pulse of the Madden Julian Oscillation will be pushing into the Atlantic Basin starting next week and will remain in place through mid-August. This will allow for conditions to be more conducive for any westward moving tropical waves to develop.

The longer range model guidance are already seeing these expected changes in the tropics by forecasting increased chances for tropical development over the central and eastern Tropical Atlantic starting later next week and continuing through the week of August 11. In fact, the longer range European ensemble model is forecasting that the week of August 11 could be particularly active with almost double the normal activity for that particular week & this all could come from the wave that the models are developing.

So, which tropical wave is the model guidance honing in on as a candidate for likely development? In trying to track the energy that leads to the development in the models backwards, it seems it’s the tropical wave that’s still located over east-central Africa near about 10-15 East Longitude. Guidance seems to suggest this wave will push off of the coast of Africa into the far eastern Tropical Atlantic early next week and then reach the Lesser Antilles late next week or next weekend. Beyond this, longer range guidance hints at this wave being in the vicinity of the Bahamas during the first half of the week of August 11.

Because of this, I do think that this particular tropical wave that’s still located over east-central Africa will need to be watched very closely as we get into next week through next weekend as it heads westward across the eastern and central Tropical Atlantic towards the Lesser Antilles.

The next tropical weather discussion will be issued on Friday.

Looking at the Atlantic Basin today, it appears that the activity has gotten a little more active than what it looked like even on Friday.
The First Item Of Note Is an area of fairly robust thunderstorms that are located to the north of the Lesser Antilles near about 24 North Latitude, 61 West Longitude. These thunderstorms are occurring on the northern end of a westward moving tropical wave.

A look at the environmental conditions around this wave reveals that the wind shear values are marginally favorable for development right now, but there is some much stronger wind shear values found just to the west. Also, there is very little or no low or mid-level circulation occurring with the wave – meaning that there is no low pressure forming in association with the thunderstorm activity.

My take on this first item is that even though the thunderstorm activity looks fairly robust on satellite imagery, there is very little evidence in the data that suggests it’s going to develop. This means that the chances of development are near zero.

The Second Item That I’m Watching Is a tropical wave that is now pushing off of the coast of Africa. The convection with this wave is robust, but is also disorganized. A look at the environmental conditions reveals that the wind shear values are favorable for development. The impediment to any development of this wave as it moves westward is going to be an abundant amount of dry air.

After showing development late last week, all of the model guidance have backed off on their forecasts of development this week as it heads westward. The likely reason why guidance no longer shows development is probably due to all of the dry air between the Lesser Antilles and the coast of Africa.

My feeling is that there is a very low chance of tropical development as this tropical wave heads westward and approaches the Lesser Antilles later this week. That said, I will be keeping an eye on this wave as it heads westward this week, just in case.

Will There Be Tropical Mischief Off Of The Southeast Coast Of The United States Next Week? – There is the possibility that we could see some sort of tropical mischief just offshore of the US Southeast coast next week as that tropical wave that’s now located near the coast of Africa lifts northwestward from the Lesser Antilles late this week to the Bahamas early next week. At the same time this is happening, it’s possible that we could see a low pressure system form near the tail end of a front offshore of the Southeast coast of the US. This combination could lead to the development of a tropical system next week somewhere in the area between Bermuda and the northernmost Bahamas.

You see some very different results when you look at the model guidance.

On one hand, the GFS ensemble model guidance seems to suggest any low pressure system will remain frontal in nature and just head east-northeastward away from the Carolina coastline and into the open Atlantic.

On the other hand, the European ensemble model guidance hints at any low pressure system that forms might hand around near the Carolina coastline next week and try to form. In fact, the European ensemble model guidance is showing a 40-45 percent chance of tropical development near the South Carolina coast by early next week.

The AI models such as the Google Deep Mind AI weather model shows a very messy scenario of any tail end low pressure systems trying to absorb the energy and moisture from that tropical wave. This leads to a tight clustering of ensemble members showing development in the area between the Bahamas and Bermuda early next week. The AI ensemble models then diverge wildly with some members curving this system out into the open Atlantic & other members showing a track towards the US Southeast coast later next week.

All-in-all, I do think that the area just offshore of the Southeast Coast of the United States needs to be watched closely for potential development as soon as early next week. It’s something that I will be keeping an eye on & will have more updates in the coming days.

The next tropical weather discussion will be issued on Wednesday.

Area Of Low Pressure Over The Northwestern Gulf: Satellite imagery and analysis of weather data indicated that there is a broad low pressure system that’s located over the northwestern Gulf about 100 miles to the south of the coast of southwestern Louisiana. This low pressure system continues to produce disorganized shower and thunderstorm activity.

It is expected that the low pressure system will move inland into the upper Texas coast by tonight and it is expected that locally heavy rain will occur across the middle and upper Texas coast and across southwestern Louisiana today into Saturday. Rainfall totals of up to 1 to 2 inches are possible in spots.

Tropical Development Is A Possibility Over The Central & Eastern Tropical Atlantic Around The Middle & Later Parts Of Next Week: It looks like tropical development could happen during the second half of next week as a tropical wave is expected to push off of the coast of Africa around Monday or Tuesday.

A good chunk of the model guidance are showing the beginning states of development from this tropical wave as it moves westward and reaches about 35-40 West about the middle part of next week. Out of all of the guidance, the European ensemble model continues to be the most aggressive in its forecast development of this wave and does show upwards of a 70 percent chance for tropical development during the middle part of next week in the area around 35 West Longitude.

Guidance then shows this system, whether it develops or not, to reach the Lesser Antilles around next Friday or next Saturday and then has it either moving right over the Greater Antilles or heading up towards the Bahamas by late next week.

The Google Deep Mind AI model (which did very well last year with the tracks and intensities of tropical systems) does point to the potential of the initial development to occur around Wednesday near 40 West Longitude. A majority of the AI ensemble models point to this system to be near the northeastern Caribbean around next Friday or next Saturday. The spread of the members of the Google AI model then increases, but they all do suggest this system could be in the southwestern North Atlantic somewhere near or just east of the Bahamas by Tuesday, August 5 and Wednesday, August 6.

My takeaway from all of this is that tropical development looks quite possible during the middle and later parts of next week. Those of you in the Leeward Islands and the northeastern Caribbean should keep a very close eye on the progress of this system as it may affect you around next Friday or next Saturday.

It’s something to watch closely, but it’s nothing to be overly worried or concerned about.

The next tropical weather discussion will be issued on Monday.

Area Of Low Pressure Over The Northern Gulf: Satellite imagery and analysis of weather data indicated that there is a disorganized area of low pressure located over the north-central Gulf. This low pressure system is producing some very disorganized areas of showers and thunderstorms from the north-central Gulf into the northeastern Gulf.

While the conditions are largely unfavorable for development due to strong wind shear and land interaction, it’s possible that this low pressure system may find itself in a slightly more favorable environment on Friday when it’s approaching the upper Texas coast. If that does occur, then we may see some increase in organization of the low pressure system before it moves inland into the upper Texas coast later Friday night and Saturday morning.

All-in-all though, the chances for development are nearly nil.

What this low pressure system will do is produce periods of heavy rainfall across much of the northern and northeastern Gulf coast throughout today that lasts into part of Friday. This locally heavy rainfall will then affect the upper Texas coast during Friday and Saturday.

Tropical Wave Activity Across The Central & Eastern Tropical Atlantic: Robust tropical wave activity continues across the central and eastern Tropical Atlantic with a new wave pushing off of the coast of Africa every 2-4 days or so.

One tropical wave now located over the eastern Tropical Atlantic near 35 West Longitude is producing some very limited thunderstorm activity. That said, this wave is producing some decent low and mid-level spin, even though it’s somewhat elongated. Also, analysis of wind shear values indicates that the conditions are favorable for development. Because of this, some slight development of this wave is quite possible as it heads westward reaching the Lesser Antilles early next week. Overall though, I’m not expecting any sort of robust development from this particular wave, but it will bring a round of squally weather to the Lesser Antilles early next week.

The model guidance is more interested in forecasting development of a tropical wave that’s still located over west-central Africa. This wave is expected to push off of the coast of Africa into the far eastern Tropical Atlantic late this weekend and early next week. While the GFS ensemble model guidance isn’t very interested in forecasting development of this wave, the European ensemble model guidance is fairly aggressive in forecasting development. In fact, the European ensemble model guidance shows at least a 50 percent chance for tropical development in the east-central Tropical Atlantic during the first half of next week. Guidance like the European ensemble model then shows weakening of this wave as it approaches the Lesser Antilles late next week and next week. That said, it does indicate the wave to remain very robust right into the Lesser Antilles.

I also wanted to mention that the Google Deep Mind AI model is showing the wave that we’ll be watching next week to potentially develop in the southwestern North Atlantic during the week of August 4. This has support of the longer range European ensemble model guidance as it shows development chances to increase just offshore of the Carolina and Georgia coastline during the early part of the week of August 4.

All-in-all, I do think that the tropical wave that’s still over west-central Africa is a very strong candidate for tropical development next week as it heads westward across the eastern and central Tropical Atlantic. Those of you in the Lesser Antilles should keep an eye on the progress of this particular wave.

The next tropical weather discussion will be issued on Friday.

Invest 94-L Located To The East Of The Lesser Antilles: The shower and thunderstorm activity associated with Invest 94-L is so disorganized today that the Invest 94-L has dropped its designation. The reason for this is because the amount of wind shear over this system continues to increase and become more unfavorable for development. In fact, a wall of strong wind shear awaits this disturbance once it moves into the eastern Caribbean later Wednesday and Thursday. This means that this system will completely fall apart when it reaches the eastern Caribbean late Wednesday and Thursday.

What this disturbance will do is bring some squally weather to a large part of the Lesser Antilles during Wednesday and Wednesday night.

Area Of Disturbed Weather Will Move Across The Northern Gulf Mid To Late Week: Satellite imagery today indicated that there is some convection occurring at the tail end of a frontal boundary. This thunderstorm activity stretches from off of the southeast coast of the United States westward to across the northern Florida Peninsula to the northeast Gulf.

This thunderstorm activity is expected to push westward into the northern Gulf as we get into later Wednesday and Thursday. The disturbance associated with this thunderstorm activity is then expected to push westward across the northern Gulf during Thursday and Friday and may move inland into either southern Louisiana or the upper Texas coast later Friday into Saturday.

The chances for development of this disturbance are extremely low. What this disturbance will do is bring some enhanced rainfall and an increased coverage of thunderstorm activity to much of the Florida Peninsula from the rest of today through Wednesday and Thursday. This disturbance will then bring enhanced rainfall and an increased coverage of thunderstorm activity to the central Gulf Coast during Thursday, Friday and Saturday. Some of this rain looks to then affect southeastern and eastern parts of Texas from Friday into this weekend.

Tropical Wave Located Over The Far Eastern Tropical Atlantic: Another tropical wave pushed off of the coast of Africa and is now located over the far eastern Tropical Atlantic. This wave is producing some disorganized thunderstorm activity and the environmental conditions are marginally favorable for development. These marginally favorable environmental conditions exists across much of the eastern and central Tropical Atlantic and because of this, some development is not out of the question as the wave heads westward reaching the central Tropical Atlantic by late this week and this weekend.

All-in-all, the model guidance continues to show little or no development from this wave due to the marginally favorable environmental conditions.

My guess is that we probably will not see any development from this wave, but it will probably bring a round of squally weather to the Lesser Antilles early next week.

Finally – It should be noted that some of the model guidance are more interested in a tropical wave that’s still located over central Africa. The interest lies in the fact that some of the guidance show higher chances for tropical development from this wave once it reaches the central Tropical Atlantic around the middle part of next week. This could be something to watch once we get into next week.

The next tropical weather discussion will be issued on Thursday.

Invest 94-L Located About 700 Miles To The East-Southeast Of The Lesser Antilles: Satellite imagery today indicated that the shower and thunderstorm activity associated with an area of low pressure, designated Invest 94-L by the National Hurricane Center, has become more consolidated. That said, there really isn’t any deep convection occurring with Invest 94-L, just that the overall structure is a little more consolidated.

Analysis of environmental conditions reveals that there is strong wind shear occurring on the northern side of the disturbance, although the wind shear values are favorable near the low pressure center. Looking further west, the overall environmental conditions become unfavorable for development once you reach about 60 West Longitude.

It’s possible that we could see some development of Invest 94-L between today and Tuesday due to the favorable conditions, however, this system will find itself in an unfavorable environment by Wednesday leading to an end to any development.

Invest 94-L is expected to move through the southern Leeward Islands and the northern Windward Islands on Wednesday bringing squally weather to a large part of the Lesser Antilles during Wednesday and Wednesday night.

Once Invest 94-L reaches the eastern Caribbean on Thursday, it will likely fall apart.

Model Track Forecast:

Satellite Imagery:

Area Of Disturbed Weather Will Move Across The Northern Gulf Mid To Late Week: It appears quite possible that a small piece of Invest 93L will move back into the northeastern Gulf by about Wednesday and then move westward across the northern Gulf during the late parts of this week.

The environmental conditions do not look favorable for development due to some marginally strong wind shear values and dry air. This means that I don’t think that we’ll see any sort of development from this disturbance.

One thing that this disturbance will do is enhance the rainfall potential along much of the northern Gulf Coast, especially during the middle and later parts of this week. Rain totals of 2 to 4 inches look likely along much of the northern Gulf Coast. Some of this rain may reach the upper Texas coast by this weekend.

Tropical Disturbance Located Near The West Coast Of Africa: Another area of disturbed weather is now moving near the west coast of Africa. This disturbance will push into the far eastern Tropical Atlantic by tonight or Tuesday. This disturbance is then expected to head westward across the eastern Tropical Atlantic during the middle and later parts of this week.

A look at the environmental conditions across the eastern and central Tropical Atlantic reveals that the wind shear values are marginally favorable for development. This is probably why the model guidance aren’t too interested in forecasting development of this disturbance. That said, Invest 94-L located well to the west of this disturbance is likely to moisten up the atmosphere & because of this, this particular disturbance may try to develop during the second half of this week into this weekend as it heads from the eastern Tropical Atlantic into the central Tropical Atlantic. Something to watch, just in case.

Whether we see any development or not from this particular disturbance, it will probably bring a round of squally weather to the Lesser Antilles early next week.

The next tropical weather discussion will be issued on Tuesday.

A Tropical Wave Located Over The Eastern Tropical Atlantic Will Be Watched Next Week As It Heads Westward: A look at satellite imagery today revealed a tropical wave located over the eastern Tropical Atlantic near 30 West Longitude. This wave is producing some limited thunderstorm activity. A look at environmental conditions indicates that the wind shear values are at between 5 and 15 knots, which is favorable for further development. That said, there is no low or mid-level circulation associated with this wave & thus it has a long ways to go to develop, if it ever does.

All of the main model guidance do show at least some development of this tropical wave as it heads westward into the Central Atlantic next week possibly reaching the Lesser Antilles late next week. That said, none of the models forecast any sort of robust development, instead they most show this wave possibly becoming a strong tropical wave that brings very squally weather to the Lesser Antilles around Thursday or so of next week.

For now though, I am going to be keeping close tabs on this tropical wave, no matter what it does. Reason why is because analysis of the environmental conditions of the area between the Lesser Antilles and the west coast of Africa reveals that the wind shear values remain favorable for development as far west as 55 West Longitude. Because of this, it wouldn’t surprise me to see this wave try to develop into perhaps a tropical depression as it heads westward into the central Tropical Atlantic. With conditions forecast to be unfavorable west of 55 West Longitude, weakening of whatever tries to form would possibly occur as it approaches the Lesser Antilles later next week.

For now, this wave is something that should be watched, but it’s nothing to be concerned or worried about.

Invest 93-L Make Try to Loop Around & Track Back Into The Northern Gulf Next Week: Invest 93-L is now inland over Louisiana and is expected to bring some additional rainfall to mostly western and southwestern Louisiana throughout the rest of today.

The disturbance that is Invest 93-L is then expected to quickly track eastward across the southeastern US this weekend and then dip back to the south. This could lead to Invest 93-L to re-emerge in the northern Gulf around the middle part of next week or so.

While the potential for Invest 93-L to move back into the northern Gulf during the middle parts of next week & try to develop is something to keep an eye on, I’m not too concerned about it. The reason why is because none of the model guidance show any sort of development from it later next week. In fact, the European ensemble model guidance forecasts that Invest 93-L has perhaps a 20-30 percent chance of development in the northern Gulf later next week.

It’s something to watch, but it’s nothing to be concerned or worried about.

I plan on taking this weekend off as we need to do the very frustrating & stressful task of shopping for a “new” vehicle. Reason why is because we were involved in a 4 vehicle chain reaction accident last Thursday & the insurance totaled our car. Fortunately, we walked away from the accident with only some minor body aches.

Anyways, the next tropical weather discussion will be issued on Monday unless the tropical wave over the eastern Tropical Atlantic starts to develop.

Invest 93-L Located Over The North-Central Gulf: Invest 93-L is currently located over the north-central Gulf and is expected to move inland into southeastern Louisiana this afternoon or this evening. It’s now highly certain that Invest 93-L will not develop into a depression before it moves inland.

What Invest 93-L will do is produce several rounds of heavy rainfall across southern Louisiana throughout the rest of today right through Friday.

Rainfall totals the rest of today through tonight will be anywhere between 2 and 4 inches across much of southern Louisiana with the highest amounts occurring in the area from Lake Charles eastward to Lafayette and then southward to New Iberia and Houma. Localized flash flooding is quite possible, especially in areas that see high rain rates.

Additional rounds of heavy rain can be expected throughout Friday.

All-in-all, total rainfall amounts of 3 to 6 inches can be expected over the next couple of days across much of southern Louisiana. Local rain amounts of up to 6 to 10 inches are a possibility, especially in the area around Vermilion Bay.

While the flood threat looks much less threatening than it did a couple of days ago, it should also not be dismissed as localized flash flooding will be a hazard across much of southern Louisiana throughout the next couple of days.

No Tropical Development Is Expected Through This Weekend Across The Atlantic Basin, But……: There are no other areas of concern in terms of tropical development across the rest of the Atlantic Basin right now. In fact, no tropical development is expected right through this weekend.

I did want to mention the tropical waves that are now moving off of the coast of Africa every few days. One tropical wave is currently located over the east-central Tropical Atlantic near 37 West Longitude. Satellite imagery indicates that this wave is producing some shower and thunderstorm activity and the conditions are currently favorable for development. That said, the environmental conditions are expected to become highly unfavorable for development by the time this wave reaches about 45-50 West Longitude. Because of this, I do not expect to see any sort of development of this tropical wave as it heads westward over the next few days.

Two other tropical waves loom to the east of this wave, one now pushing off of the coast of Africa and the second located over west-central Africa. These two tropical waves may need to be watched a little more closely as they push westward across the eastern and central Tropical Atlantic next week. In fact, the European ensemble model guidance is forecasting up to a 25 percent chance for tropical development over the east-central Tropical Atlantic during the middle and later parts of next week. The European ensemble model guidance then forecasts the development chances to fall to about 15 percent as one of the two waves approaches the Lesser Antilles next weekend.

So, the two tropical waves that are now located from the far eastern Tropical Atlantic to west-central Africa might need to be watched as they head westward across the eastern and central Tropical Atlantic. For now, it’s something to watch, but is nothing to be concerned or worried about.

Development Chances Across The Atlantic Basin May Increase At The Very End Of This Month & During Early August: Changes are in the air as we get into the very end of this month and into early August.

It still looks quite possible that an upward motion pulse of the Madden Julian Oscillation will move into the Atlantic Basin during the last few days of this month and remain in place during early August. This will shift the background state of the tropical Atlantic from widespread unfavorable conditions due to sinking air to a more favorable environment for development due to rising air over a large part of the Atlantic.

The various model guidance supports this idea of a favorable phase for development being in place over the Atlantic during the first half of August. Furthermore, model guidance seems to be suggesting that the amount of wind shear over the Caribbean will decrease substantially by early August leading to a more favorable environment for development.

Looking at the longer range model guidance, they seem to hint that the tropical waves pushing off of Africa may have a little more oomph as we enter August with guidance such as the CFS model showing a few waves trying to develop as they head westward. Also, the European ensemble model is forecasting a 15-25 percent chance for tropical development in a large area between the eastern Caribbean islands and the west coast of Africa during the first week of August. During the second week of August, the European ensemble model guidance is forecasting a 20-30 percent chance for tropical development across the central and eastern Tropical Atlantic.

This will be something that I’ll be keeping an eye on for sure and I will have many more updates over the next couple of weeks.

The next tropical weather discussion will be issued on Friday.

Invest 93-L Located Over The Florida Panhandle: Invest 93-L tracked much further north across the Florida Peninsula yesterday than what was anticipated. Because of this, Invest 93-L never emerged over the waters of the northeast Gulf and instead is now located just inland over the Florida Panhandle.

Current analysis seems to suggest the low pressure center associated with Invest 93-L is located very near Panama City with the whole system tracking to the west and perhaps even a little to the west-southwest. This means that the low pressure center associated with Invest 93-L looks to “splash-down” over the waters of the northern Gulf just south of Pensacola by later today. A track right over the extreme northern Gulf just offshore of southern Alabama and southern Mississippi looks to occur during tonight and Thursday.

A majority of the track model guidance are forecasting that Invest 93-L will come ashore in southeastern Louisiana late Thursday as barely a tropical depression. That said, Invest 93-L has a very small window of time to consolidate and develop (around 24 hours, at the most) and because of this, I think the chances of this system becoming a depression have decreased significantly since yesterday.

Whether Invest 93-L becomes a depression or not, the main focus on this system is going to be heavy rainfall and the flooding potential across southern and southeastern Louisiana, southern Mississippi and southern Alabama.

Model Track Forecast:

Satellite Imagery:

Rain With Flooding Is Likely Across Southern & Southeastern Louisiana, Southern Mississippi & Southern Alabama Over The Next Few Days: There is some good news in regards to the expected rainfall and flooding over the next few days and that is the amount of forecast rainfall looks a little less as compared to what was forecast yesterday.

It now appears that rainfall totals of 3 to 6 inches is expected across much of southern and southeastern Louisiana with 2 to 4 inches of total rainfall expected across southern Mississippi and southern Alabama over the next few days. Higher rainfall totals are a distinct possibility across south-central Louisiana and across the Mississippi Delta region.

While flooding still looks likely across southern and southeastern Louisiana, southern Mississippi and southern Alabama, especially during Thursday, Friday and Saturday, the threat for significant to major flooding looks lower as compared to yesterday.

Elsewhere Across The Atlantic, Caribbean & Gulf: There are no other areas of concern in terms of tropical development across the rest of the Atlantic Basin right now. In fact, no tropical development is expected throughout the rest of this week right through this weekend.

I did want to mention the tropical wave that is located over the far eastern Tropical Atlantic today. While satellite imagery does indicate that this wave is producing shower and thunderstorm activity, the environmental conditions to the west of this wave is unfavorable for development. Because of this, I do not expect to see any sort of development of this tropical wave as it heads westward over the next few days.

What this tropical wave might do is moisten up the environment for a couple of other tropical disturbances that are still located over west-central and central Africa. These disturbances are expected to push off of the west coast of Africa and into the far eastern Tropical Atlantic as we get into this weekend and early next week. It should be noted that the European ensemble model guidance is forecasting a 30 percent chance of development of one of the waves still over central Africa when it reaches the eastern Tropical Atlantic during the first half of next week. It then shows weakening of this disturbance by the time it approaches the islands of the eastern Caribbean late next week and next weekend.

So, the two disturbances might be something to keep an eye on next week as they head westward across the eastern and central Tropical Atlantic, but I’m not really worried about them becoming a real issue for the islands of the Caribbean or anywhere else.

The next tropical weather discussion will be issued on Thursday.