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Area Of Low Pressure Over The Northwestern Gulf: Satellite imagery and analysis of weather data indicated that there is a broad low pressure system that’s located over the northwestern Gulf about 100 miles to the south of the coast of southwestern Louisiana. This low pressure system continues to produce disorganized shower and thunderstorm activity.

It is expected that the low pressure system will move inland into the upper Texas coast by tonight and it is expected that locally heavy rain will occur across the middle and upper Texas coast and across southwestern Louisiana today into Saturday. Rainfall totals of up to 1 to 2 inches are possible in spots.

Tropical Development Is A Possibility Over The Central & Eastern Tropical Atlantic Around The Middle & Later Parts Of Next Week: It looks like tropical development could happen during the second half of next week as a tropical wave is expected to push off of the coast of Africa around Monday or Tuesday.

A good chunk of the model guidance are showing the beginning states of development from this tropical wave as it moves westward and reaches about 35-40 West about the middle part of next week. Out of all of the guidance, the European ensemble model continues to be the most aggressive in its forecast development of this wave and does show upwards of a 70 percent chance for tropical development during the middle part of next week in the area around 35 West Longitude.

Guidance then shows this system, whether it develops or not, to reach the Lesser Antilles around next Friday or next Saturday and then has it either moving right over the Greater Antilles or heading up towards the Bahamas by late next week.

The Google Deep Mind AI model (which did very well last year with the tracks and intensities of tropical systems) does point to the potential of the initial development to occur around Wednesday near 40 West Longitude. A majority of the AI ensemble models point to this system to be near the northeastern Caribbean around next Friday or next Saturday. The spread of the members of the Google AI model then increases, but they all do suggest this system could be in the southwestern North Atlantic somewhere near or just east of the Bahamas by Tuesday, August 5 and Wednesday, August 6.

My takeaway from all of this is that tropical development looks quite possible during the middle and later parts of next week. Those of you in the Leeward Islands and the northeastern Caribbean should keep a very close eye on the progress of this system as it may affect you around next Friday or next Saturday.

It’s something to watch closely, but it’s nothing to be overly worried or concerned about.

The next tropical weather discussion will be issued on Monday.

Area Of Low Pressure Over The Northern Gulf: Satellite imagery and analysis of weather data indicated that there is a disorganized area of low pressure located over the north-central Gulf. This low pressure system is producing some very disorganized areas of showers and thunderstorms from the north-central Gulf into the northeastern Gulf.

While the conditions are largely unfavorable for development due to strong wind shear and land interaction, it’s possible that this low pressure system may find itself in a slightly more favorable environment on Friday when it’s approaching the upper Texas coast. If that does occur, then we may see some increase in organization of the low pressure system before it moves inland into the upper Texas coast later Friday night and Saturday morning.

All-in-all though, the chances for development are nearly nil.

What this low pressure system will do is produce periods of heavy rainfall across much of the northern and northeastern Gulf coast throughout today that lasts into part of Friday. This locally heavy rainfall will then affect the upper Texas coast during Friday and Saturday.

Tropical Wave Activity Across The Central & Eastern Tropical Atlantic: Robust tropical wave activity continues across the central and eastern Tropical Atlantic with a new wave pushing off of the coast of Africa every 2-4 days or so.

One tropical wave now located over the eastern Tropical Atlantic near 35 West Longitude is producing some very limited thunderstorm activity. That said, this wave is producing some decent low and mid-level spin, even though it’s somewhat elongated. Also, analysis of wind shear values indicates that the conditions are favorable for development. Because of this, some slight development of this wave is quite possible as it heads westward reaching the Lesser Antilles early next week. Overall though, I’m not expecting any sort of robust development from this particular wave, but it will bring a round of squally weather to the Lesser Antilles early next week.

The model guidance is more interested in forecasting development of a tropical wave that’s still located over west-central Africa. This wave is expected to push off of the coast of Africa into the far eastern Tropical Atlantic late this weekend and early next week. While the GFS ensemble model guidance isn’t very interested in forecasting development of this wave, the European ensemble model guidance is fairly aggressive in forecasting development. In fact, the European ensemble model guidance shows at least a 50 percent chance for tropical development in the east-central Tropical Atlantic during the first half of next week. Guidance like the European ensemble model then shows weakening of this wave as it approaches the Lesser Antilles late next week and next week. That said, it does indicate the wave to remain very robust right into the Lesser Antilles.

I also wanted to mention that the Google Deep Mind AI model is showing the wave that we’ll be watching next week to potentially develop in the southwestern North Atlantic during the week of August 4. This has support of the longer range European ensemble model guidance as it shows development chances to increase just offshore of the Carolina and Georgia coastline during the early part of the week of August 4.

All-in-all, I do think that the tropical wave that’s still over west-central Africa is a very strong candidate for tropical development next week as it heads westward across the eastern and central Tropical Atlantic. Those of you in the Lesser Antilles should keep an eye on the progress of this particular wave.

The next tropical weather discussion will be issued on Friday.

Invest 94-L Located To The East Of The Lesser Antilles: The shower and thunderstorm activity associated with Invest 94-L is so disorganized today that the Invest 94-L has dropped its designation. The reason for this is because the amount of wind shear over this system continues to increase and become more unfavorable for development. In fact, a wall of strong wind shear awaits this disturbance once it moves into the eastern Caribbean later Wednesday and Thursday. This means that this system will completely fall apart when it reaches the eastern Caribbean late Wednesday and Thursday.

What this disturbance will do is bring some squally weather to a large part of the Lesser Antilles during Wednesday and Wednesday night.

Area Of Disturbed Weather Will Move Across The Northern Gulf Mid To Late Week: Satellite imagery today indicated that there is some convection occurring at the tail end of a frontal boundary. This thunderstorm activity stretches from off of the southeast coast of the United States westward to across the northern Florida Peninsula to the northeast Gulf.

This thunderstorm activity is expected to push westward into the northern Gulf as we get into later Wednesday and Thursday. The disturbance associated with this thunderstorm activity is then expected to push westward across the northern Gulf during Thursday and Friday and may move inland into either southern Louisiana or the upper Texas coast later Friday into Saturday.

The chances for development of this disturbance are extremely low. What this disturbance will do is bring some enhanced rainfall and an increased coverage of thunderstorm activity to much of the Florida Peninsula from the rest of today through Wednesday and Thursday. This disturbance will then bring enhanced rainfall and an increased coverage of thunderstorm activity to the central Gulf Coast during Thursday, Friday and Saturday. Some of this rain looks to then affect southeastern and eastern parts of Texas from Friday into this weekend.

Tropical Wave Located Over The Far Eastern Tropical Atlantic: Another tropical wave pushed off of the coast of Africa and is now located over the far eastern Tropical Atlantic. This wave is producing some disorganized thunderstorm activity and the environmental conditions are marginally favorable for development. These marginally favorable environmental conditions exists across much of the eastern and central Tropical Atlantic and because of this, some development is not out of the question as the wave heads westward reaching the central Tropical Atlantic by late this week and this weekend.

All-in-all, the model guidance continues to show little or no development from this wave due to the marginally favorable environmental conditions.

My guess is that we probably will not see any development from this wave, but it will probably bring a round of squally weather to the Lesser Antilles early next week.

Finally – It should be noted that some of the model guidance are more interested in a tropical wave that’s still located over central Africa. The interest lies in the fact that some of the guidance show higher chances for tropical development from this wave once it reaches the central Tropical Atlantic around the middle part of next week. This could be something to watch once we get into next week.

The next tropical weather discussion will be issued on Thursday.

Invest 94-L Located About 700 Miles To The East-Southeast Of The Lesser Antilles: Satellite imagery today indicated that the shower and thunderstorm activity associated with an area of low pressure, designated Invest 94-L by the National Hurricane Center, has become more consolidated. That said, there really isn’t any deep convection occurring with Invest 94-L, just that the overall structure is a little more consolidated.

Analysis of environmental conditions reveals that there is strong wind shear occurring on the northern side of the disturbance, although the wind shear values are favorable near the low pressure center. Looking further west, the overall environmental conditions become unfavorable for development once you reach about 60 West Longitude.

It’s possible that we could see some development of Invest 94-L between today and Tuesday due to the favorable conditions, however, this system will find itself in an unfavorable environment by Wednesday leading to an end to any development.

Invest 94-L is expected to move through the southern Leeward Islands and the northern Windward Islands on Wednesday bringing squally weather to a large part of the Lesser Antilles during Wednesday and Wednesday night.

Once Invest 94-L reaches the eastern Caribbean on Thursday, it will likely fall apart.

Model Track Forecast:

Satellite Imagery:

Area Of Disturbed Weather Will Move Across The Northern Gulf Mid To Late Week: It appears quite possible that a small piece of Invest 93L will move back into the northeastern Gulf by about Wednesday and then move westward across the northern Gulf during the late parts of this week.

The environmental conditions do not look favorable for development due to some marginally strong wind shear values and dry air. This means that I don’t think that we’ll see any sort of development from this disturbance.

One thing that this disturbance will do is enhance the rainfall potential along much of the northern Gulf Coast, especially during the middle and later parts of this week. Rain totals of 2 to 4 inches look likely along much of the northern Gulf Coast. Some of this rain may reach the upper Texas coast by this weekend.

Tropical Disturbance Located Near The West Coast Of Africa: Another area of disturbed weather is now moving near the west coast of Africa. This disturbance will push into the far eastern Tropical Atlantic by tonight or Tuesday. This disturbance is then expected to head westward across the eastern Tropical Atlantic during the middle and later parts of this week.

A look at the environmental conditions across the eastern and central Tropical Atlantic reveals that the wind shear values are marginally favorable for development. This is probably why the model guidance aren’t too interested in forecasting development of this disturbance. That said, Invest 94-L located well to the west of this disturbance is likely to moisten up the atmosphere & because of this, this particular disturbance may try to develop during the second half of this week into this weekend as it heads from the eastern Tropical Atlantic into the central Tropical Atlantic. Something to watch, just in case.

Whether we see any development or not from this particular disturbance, it will probably bring a round of squally weather to the Lesser Antilles early next week.

The next tropical weather discussion will be issued on Tuesday.

A Tropical Wave Located Over The Eastern Tropical Atlantic Will Be Watched Next Week As It Heads Westward: A look at satellite imagery today revealed a tropical wave located over the eastern Tropical Atlantic near 30 West Longitude. This wave is producing some limited thunderstorm activity. A look at environmental conditions indicates that the wind shear values are at between 5 and 15 knots, which is favorable for further development. That said, there is no low or mid-level circulation associated with this wave & thus it has a long ways to go to develop, if it ever does.

All of the main model guidance do show at least some development of this tropical wave as it heads westward into the Central Atlantic next week possibly reaching the Lesser Antilles late next week. That said, none of the models forecast any sort of robust development, instead they most show this wave possibly becoming a strong tropical wave that brings very squally weather to the Lesser Antilles around Thursday or so of next week.

For now though, I am going to be keeping close tabs on this tropical wave, no matter what it does. Reason why is because analysis of the environmental conditions of the area between the Lesser Antilles and the west coast of Africa reveals that the wind shear values remain favorable for development as far west as 55 West Longitude. Because of this, it wouldn’t surprise me to see this wave try to develop into perhaps a tropical depression as it heads westward into the central Tropical Atlantic. With conditions forecast to be unfavorable west of 55 West Longitude, weakening of whatever tries to form would possibly occur as it approaches the Lesser Antilles later next week.

For now, this wave is something that should be watched, but it’s nothing to be concerned or worried about.

Invest 93-L Make Try to Loop Around & Track Back Into The Northern Gulf Next Week: Invest 93-L is now inland over Louisiana and is expected to bring some additional rainfall to mostly western and southwestern Louisiana throughout the rest of today.

The disturbance that is Invest 93-L is then expected to quickly track eastward across the southeastern US this weekend and then dip back to the south. This could lead to Invest 93-L to re-emerge in the northern Gulf around the middle part of next week or so.

While the potential for Invest 93-L to move back into the northern Gulf during the middle parts of next week & try to develop is something to keep an eye on, I’m not too concerned about it. The reason why is because none of the model guidance show any sort of development from it later next week. In fact, the European ensemble model guidance forecasts that Invest 93-L has perhaps a 20-30 percent chance of development in the northern Gulf later next week.

It’s something to watch, but it’s nothing to be concerned or worried about.

I plan on taking this weekend off as we need to do the very frustrating & stressful task of shopping for a “new” vehicle. Reason why is because we were involved in a 4 vehicle chain reaction accident last Thursday & the insurance totaled our car. Fortunately, we walked away from the accident with only some minor body aches.

Anyways, the next tropical weather discussion will be issued on Monday unless the tropical wave over the eastern Tropical Atlantic starts to develop.

Invest 93-L Located Over The North-Central Gulf: Invest 93-L is currently located over the north-central Gulf and is expected to move inland into southeastern Louisiana this afternoon or this evening. It’s now highly certain that Invest 93-L will not develop into a depression before it moves inland.

What Invest 93-L will do is produce several rounds of heavy rainfall across southern Louisiana throughout the rest of today right through Friday.

Rainfall totals the rest of today through tonight will be anywhere between 2 and 4 inches across much of southern Louisiana with the highest amounts occurring in the area from Lake Charles eastward to Lafayette and then southward to New Iberia and Houma. Localized flash flooding is quite possible, especially in areas that see high rain rates.

Additional rounds of heavy rain can be expected throughout Friday.

All-in-all, total rainfall amounts of 3 to 6 inches can be expected over the next couple of days across much of southern Louisiana. Local rain amounts of up to 6 to 10 inches are a possibility, especially in the area around Vermilion Bay.

While the flood threat looks much less threatening than it did a couple of days ago, it should also not be dismissed as localized flash flooding will be a hazard across much of southern Louisiana throughout the next couple of days.

No Tropical Development Is Expected Through This Weekend Across The Atlantic Basin, But……: There are no other areas of concern in terms of tropical development across the rest of the Atlantic Basin right now. In fact, no tropical development is expected right through this weekend.

I did want to mention the tropical waves that are now moving off of the coast of Africa every few days. One tropical wave is currently located over the east-central Tropical Atlantic near 37 West Longitude. Satellite imagery indicates that this wave is producing some shower and thunderstorm activity and the conditions are currently favorable for development. That said, the environmental conditions are expected to become highly unfavorable for development by the time this wave reaches about 45-50 West Longitude. Because of this, I do not expect to see any sort of development of this tropical wave as it heads westward over the next few days.

Two other tropical waves loom to the east of this wave, one now pushing off of the coast of Africa and the second located over west-central Africa. These two tropical waves may need to be watched a little more closely as they push westward across the eastern and central Tropical Atlantic next week. In fact, the European ensemble model guidance is forecasting up to a 25 percent chance for tropical development over the east-central Tropical Atlantic during the middle and later parts of next week. The European ensemble model guidance then forecasts the development chances to fall to about 15 percent as one of the two waves approaches the Lesser Antilles next weekend.

So, the two tropical waves that are now located from the far eastern Tropical Atlantic to west-central Africa might need to be watched as they head westward across the eastern and central Tropical Atlantic. For now, it’s something to watch, but is nothing to be concerned or worried about.

Development Chances Across The Atlantic Basin May Increase At The Very End Of This Month & During Early August: Changes are in the air as we get into the very end of this month and into early August.

It still looks quite possible that an upward motion pulse of the Madden Julian Oscillation will move into the Atlantic Basin during the last few days of this month and remain in place during early August. This will shift the background state of the tropical Atlantic from widespread unfavorable conditions due to sinking air to a more favorable environment for development due to rising air over a large part of the Atlantic.

The various model guidance supports this idea of a favorable phase for development being in place over the Atlantic during the first half of August. Furthermore, model guidance seems to be suggesting that the amount of wind shear over the Caribbean will decrease substantially by early August leading to a more favorable environment for development.

Looking at the longer range model guidance, they seem to hint that the tropical waves pushing off of Africa may have a little more oomph as we enter August with guidance such as the CFS model showing a few waves trying to develop as they head westward. Also, the European ensemble model is forecasting a 15-25 percent chance for tropical development in a large area between the eastern Caribbean islands and the west coast of Africa during the first week of August. During the second week of August, the European ensemble model guidance is forecasting a 20-30 percent chance for tropical development across the central and eastern Tropical Atlantic.

This will be something that I’ll be keeping an eye on for sure and I will have many more updates over the next couple of weeks.

The next tropical weather discussion will be issued on Friday.

Invest 93-L Located Over The Florida Panhandle: Invest 93-L tracked much further north across the Florida Peninsula yesterday than what was anticipated. Because of this, Invest 93-L never emerged over the waters of the northeast Gulf and instead is now located just inland over the Florida Panhandle.

Current analysis seems to suggest the low pressure center associated with Invest 93-L is located very near Panama City with the whole system tracking to the west and perhaps even a little to the west-southwest. This means that the low pressure center associated with Invest 93-L looks to “splash-down” over the waters of the northern Gulf just south of Pensacola by later today. A track right over the extreme northern Gulf just offshore of southern Alabama and southern Mississippi looks to occur during tonight and Thursday.

A majority of the track model guidance are forecasting that Invest 93-L will come ashore in southeastern Louisiana late Thursday as barely a tropical depression. That said, Invest 93-L has a very small window of time to consolidate and develop (around 24 hours, at the most) and because of this, I think the chances of this system becoming a depression have decreased significantly since yesterday.

Whether Invest 93-L becomes a depression or not, the main focus on this system is going to be heavy rainfall and the flooding potential across southern and southeastern Louisiana, southern Mississippi and southern Alabama.

Model Track Forecast:

Satellite Imagery:

Rain With Flooding Is Likely Across Southern & Southeastern Louisiana, Southern Mississippi & Southern Alabama Over The Next Few Days: There is some good news in regards to the expected rainfall and flooding over the next few days and that is the amount of forecast rainfall looks a little less as compared to what was forecast yesterday.

It now appears that rainfall totals of 3 to 6 inches is expected across much of southern and southeastern Louisiana with 2 to 4 inches of total rainfall expected across southern Mississippi and southern Alabama over the next few days. Higher rainfall totals are a distinct possibility across south-central Louisiana and across the Mississippi Delta region.

While flooding still looks likely across southern and southeastern Louisiana, southern Mississippi and southern Alabama, especially during Thursday, Friday and Saturday, the threat for significant to major flooding looks lower as compared to yesterday.

Elsewhere Across The Atlantic, Caribbean & Gulf: There are no other areas of concern in terms of tropical development across the rest of the Atlantic Basin right now. In fact, no tropical development is expected throughout the rest of this week right through this weekend.

I did want to mention the tropical wave that is located over the far eastern Tropical Atlantic today. While satellite imagery does indicate that this wave is producing shower and thunderstorm activity, the environmental conditions to the west of this wave is unfavorable for development. Because of this, I do not expect to see any sort of development of this tropical wave as it heads westward over the next few days.

What this tropical wave might do is moisten up the environment for a couple of other tropical disturbances that are still located over west-central and central Africa. These disturbances are expected to push off of the west coast of Africa and into the far eastern Tropical Atlantic as we get into this weekend and early next week. It should be noted that the European ensemble model guidance is forecasting a 30 percent chance of development of one of the waves still over central Africa when it reaches the eastern Tropical Atlantic during the first half of next week. It then shows weakening of this disturbance by the time it approaches the islands of the eastern Caribbean late next week and next weekend.

So, the two disturbances might be something to keep an eye on next week as they head westward across the eastern and central Tropical Atlantic, but I’m not really worried about them becoming a real issue for the islands of the Caribbean or anywhere else.

The next tropical weather discussion will be issued on Thursday.

Invest 93-L Located Just Offshore Of Florida’s East Coast: An area of low pressure, designated Invest 93-L by the National Hurricane Center, is currently located less than 50 miles east of Daytona Beach today.

Analysis of satellite imagery reveals that the low pressure center is located to the north of all of the thunderstorm activity. This is due to northerly wind shear that is displacing the convection to the south of the low pressure center.

Looking even closer at the data indicates that Invest 93-L is a tilted system with the mid-level center displaced to the southwest of the surface circulation due to the north and northeasterly wind shear. It’s going to be interesting to see if the current low-level circulation dissipates over the Florida Peninsula as the mid-level circulation heads westward. If this occurs, then I could see a new low-level circulation develop underneath that mid-level circulation as Invest 93-L moves into the northeastern Gulf during Wednesday. Now, should that low-level center remain intact, then a much shorter time, if any, over the Gulf would occur and then we’d see no development at all (I’m not expecting this to happen, but I wanted to mention it).

I expect to see Invest 93-L cross the central Florida Peninsula during this afternoon and tonight and then move into the northeastern Gulf during Wednesday. A ridge of high pressure to the north of the disturbance will continue to guide this system westward across the northeastern and north-central Gulf where it will be located near the Mississippi Delta on Thursday. Once it reaches southeastern Louisiana, Invest 93-L is expected to slow way down in forward speed and crawl across southern Louisiana from late Thursday through Friday and Saturday. This slow-down in forward speed is probably going to lead to some big time problems in terms of heavy rain induced flash flooding across southern and southeastern Louisiana and southern Mississippi beginning on Thursday and continuing through Friday and into this weekend.

As for whether Invest 93-L is going to develop or not – The environmental conditions across the northern Gulf is expected to be at least somewhat favorable for development. This means that this system does have a decent shot of developing into a tropical depression or even a tropical storm as it heads westward across the northern Gulf during Wednesday and Thursday.

Latest Model Guidance: A majority of track model guidance forecast a westward course across the northeastern and north-central Gulf during Wednesday into Thursday with most models showing Invest 93-L coming ashore in the area of Louisiana between Morgan City and Grand Isle during the day on Thursday.

Both the Google Deep Mind AI ensemble guidance and the European ensemble model guidance agree with the track guidance with a majority of members showing Invest 93-L coming ashore on the Louisiana coast between Vermilion Bay and the Mississippi Delta during the day on Thursday.

As for the intensity guidance, none of the guidance show Invest 93-L strengthening into a tropical storm and all keep it as a tropical depression, at most.

Here Are My Thoughts: I do think that there’s still a very decent chance that Invest 93-L will become a tropical depression in the northeastern Gulf sometime during Wednesday and Wednesday night.

The question then becomes whether Invest 93-L will take advantage of the very warm waters of the Gulf and strengthen into a tropical storm or not before it comes ashore in southern Louisiana on Thursday. Looking at the model guidance, none of the guidance now show this system strengthening into a tropical storm.

My take is that I still think that there is about an 80 percent chance of Invest 93-L becoming a depression in the northeastern Gulf Wednesday afternoon or Wednesday night. I do think that there’s perhaps a 40-50 percent chance or so of this system strengthening into a 40 mph or so tropical storm by the time it comes ashore across southern and southeastern Louisiana during the day on Thursday.

The main impediment to more robust organization and strengthening is going to be the persistent north and northeasterly wind shear over the Gulf that will prevent it to really organize.

No matter what happens to Invest 93-L in regards to development, this system will most definitely be a significant heavy rainfall producer, which will lead to significant flash flooding across southern Louisiana, southern Mississippi and southern Alabama beginning late Wednesday and continuing through Thursday and Friday and into this weekend. The significant flash flood potential will be the big story with this system.

Model Track Forecast:

Satellite Imagery:

A Significant Flash Flood Threat Looms For Southern & Southeastern Louisiana, Southern Mississippi & Southern Alabama From Wednesday Through Thursday & Friday & Into This Weekend: The overwhelming threat from Invest 93-L will be heavy rain that will produce a significant flash flood risk across southern and southeastern Louisiana, southern Mississippi and southern Alabama beginning late Wednesday and continuing through Thursday and Friday and right into this weekend.

In fact, I am particularly concerned about the amount of rain that’s going to occur across southern and southeastern Louisiana. Current indications seem to be pointing towards rain totals of at least 5 to 10 inches to occur in areas including Lafayette, Baton Rouge, New Iberia, Morgan City, Houma & the New Orleans Metro. Local rain amounts of over one foot seem quite likely in these areas.

Those of you in southern and southeastern Louisiana need to pay very close attention to the forecasts as the threat for flash flooding looks quite high.

Southern Mississippi and southern Alabama are also likely to be impacted by heavy rain from Wednesday through at least Friday with rain totals of 4 to 8 inches expected leading to flash flood issues. I urge those of you across southern Mississippi and southern Alabama to also pay very close attention to the forecasts & be aware that flash flooding will be a threat.

As for the Florida Peninsula – Following yesterday’s very serious flash flooding in Plant City, the rain so far this morning across east-central Florida has led to the issuance of Flash Flood Warnings across parts of the Space Coast of Florida. Flood watches are also in effect across all of Central Florida throughout the rest of today.

Additional rain totals of 1 to 3 inches with local amounts of up to 4 to 6 inches expected across Central and South Florida over the next couple of days or so. This additional rain is probably going to lead to additional localized flood issues across Central and South Florida.

The next tropical weather discussion will be issued on Wednesday.

Northern Gulf Tropical Development Is Looking More Likely Between Wednesday & Friday: The latest satellite imagery indicated that there is a concentrated area of thunderstorms located offshore of Florida’s East Coast. This convection is associated with a low pressure center now located about 150 miles to the east of Jacksonville.

Analysis reveals that there is about 10-20 knots of northeasterly wind shear that is displacing the thunderstorms just to the south of the main low pressure center.

It is expected that this area of disturbed weather will move westward across the Florida Peninsula as we get into tonight and Tuesday. A ridge of high pressure to the north of the disturbance will continue to guide this system westward across the northeastern and north-central Gulf during Wednesday and Thursday. Once it reaches the north-central Gulf, the forward speed of the disturbance may slow way down as we get into Friday and the weekend. This slow-down in forward speed or even complete stall could lead to some big problems in terms of heavy rain induced flooding across southern and southeastern Louisiana and southern Mississippi late this week into this weekend.

As for development possibilities, the environment across the northern Gulf is expected to be at least somewhat favorable for development. This means that this system does have a decent shot of developing into a tropical depression or even a tropical storm as it heads westward across the northern Gulf between Wednesday and Friday.

Latest Model Guidance: The global model guidance such as the GFS and European models continue to be very tepid in their forecast of development of this system. The reasons why they seem to not show any sort of development looks to be due to marginally favorable environmental conditions and interaction with land.

One model that continues to show significant development is the ICON model. It should also be noted that the ICON model has been the most consistent in forecasting development of this disturbance. The latest 12Z run of the ICON model forecasts the disturbance to cross the central Florida Peninsula on Tuesday and then begin to develop into a depression in the northeastern Gulf by Wednesday. From there, the ICON model forecasts this system to strengthen into a tropical storm in the north-central Gulf by Wednesday night into Thursday and then approach hurricane strength as it comes ashore in southeastern Louisiana late Thursday.

I did want to mention again that the ICON model has been pretty accurate in the Gulf with its forecast of tropical systems over the last couple of years. In fact, the ICON model was one of the only models that correctly forecasted Hurricane Beryl would impact Texas last July. So while the ICON model hasn’t been perfect in its forecasts, it has been first in showing the development of tropical systems, well before the other global models.

The GFS ensemble model guidance have only one or two members that show development in the northern Gulf later this week. So, most of the GFS ensemble model members forecast no development at all.

The European ensemble model guidance is also very shy in forecasting development as it only has 3 members forecasting development in the north-central Gulf later this week.

Here Are My Thoughts: I think that there is a very decent chance that the area of disturbed weather will become a tropical depression in the northeastern Gulf on Wednesday and then very probably become a tropical storm before it comes ashore in southeastern Louisiana late Thursday.

A couple of thoughts – First is that even though northeasterly wind shear is affecting the area of disturbed weather, the amount of deep convection that is occurring is quite healthy & is a sure sign of development.

Second thought is that the low pressure center is much more organized than what the global model guidance such as the GFS and European models show. This means that I think that these two models are not correct in their forecasts. In fact, it’s not out of the question that this system becomes a tropical depression before it crosses the Florida Peninsula.

One other thing to keep an eye on is how far south the low pressure center moves before it begins moving westward. If the low pressure center can cross the Florida Peninsula south of I-4, it would have more than enough time in the Gulf to become a fairly robust tropical storm before reaching the Louisiana coast late Thursday. On the other hand, a further north crossing across the Florida Peninsula north of I-4 would limit how much time this area of disturbed weather has over the Gulf leading to much less in the way of development.

Now, I do think that the ICON model is way too aggressive in its intensity forecast of this disturbed weather. I also think that models such as the GFS and European model are incorrect in not forecasting any sort of development.

This means that I think that there is at least a 80 percent chance of this disturbed weather becoming a depression in the northeastern Gulf Wednesday afternoon or Wednesday night. I also think that there’s a better than 50 percent chance that this system will then go on to strengthen into a 40-50 mph or so tropical storm by the time it comes ashore in southeastern Louisiana late Thursday afternoon or Thursday evening. I do think that there will be enough northerly to northeasterly wind shear over the Gulf to prevent this system becoming a hurricane. That said, it is expected that the disturbance will slow way down in forward speed just as its reaching southeastern Louisiana & given the very warm waters of the north-central Gulf, any let up in the wind shear could lead to more strengthening than what I’m thinking right now.

Heavy Rainfall Threat: Right now, the main threat from this system will be heavy rain with the risk for flash flooding, both across the Florida Peninsula the next couple of days & then across southern and southeastern Louisiana, southern Mississippi and southern Alabama later this week through this weekend.

For the Florida Peninsula – Given that most of the heavy rain is occurring to the south of the low pressure center, it seems likely that Central and South Florida will see the highest rainfall totals over the next couple of days or so. Rainfall totals of 3 to 6 inches with locally higher amounts can be expected along and especially south of I-4 with 1 to 3 inches of total rainfall expected north of I-4. These rainfall amounts will likely lead to localized flash flood issues, primarily across Central and South Florida where the highest rainfall amounts will be.

For Southern & Southeastern Louisiana, Southern Mississippi & Southern Alabama – As this system tracks westward across the northern Gulf between Wednesday and Friday, it is expected to bring heavy rainfall across southern and southeastern Louisiana, southern Mississippi and southern Alabama beginning on Wednesday night and Thursday and continuing through Friday and possibly all of this weekend. I do have serious concerns that this system could bring significant amounts of flash flooding across southern and southeastern Louisiana and southern Mississippi due to the potential for it to slow way down or stall once it reaches southeastern Louisiana. This is something that will need to be watched extremely closely.

The next tropical weather discussion will be issued on Tuesday.

Northern Gulf Tropical Development Continues To Be Possible During The Middle & Later Parts Of This Week: Satellite imagery today indicated that there is a concentrated area of shower and thunderstorm activity located just offshore of the coasts of northeast Florida, southeast Georgia and eastern South Carolina. Weather analysis reveals that an area of low pressure may be trying to form in this area. This is the system to watch this coming week for potential tropical development.

It is expected that this area of disturbed weather will begin to head in a southwesterly and then westerly direction during Monday and Tuesday. This will lead to this disturbed weather to cross the Florida Peninsula during the day on Tuesday and then push into the northeastern Gulf by Tuesday night and Wednesday.

Once this disturbed weather reaches the northeastern Gulf on Wednesday, it is expected to find itself in an environment that’s somewhat favorable for development. This means that this disturbed weather has a chance, at least, to develop into a tropical depression or a tropical storm as it heads westward across the northern Gulf later this week.

Latest Model Guidance: The model guidance vary quite a bit between each other on whether they forecast development of this disturbed weather in the northern Gulf or not.

Out of all of the model guidance, the ICON model is the most aggressive and has been the most consistent with the development of this system. The latest ICON model run forecasts this system to develop into a tropical depression in the northeastern Gulf by about Wednesday and then strengthens it into a tropical storm over the north-central Gulf by Thursday. Ultimately, the ICON model forecasts this system to come ashore along the upper Texas coast around Friday night as a upper end tropical storm.

I do want to mention that the ICON model has been pretty accurate in the Gulf with its forecast of tropical systems over the last couple of years. While it hasn’t been perfect in its forecasts, it has been first in showing the development of tropical systems, well before the other global models.

The GFS and the European models forecast no development at all from this system. Given how the area of showers and thunderstorms off of the Southeast coast of the United States looks today, I have to wonder if the ICON model might be seeing something the GFS and European models aren’t seeing.

The GFS ensemble model guidance has quite a few members that are showing development of this system in the northern Gulf later this week. All of the members that do show development forecast this system to come ashore over southern or southeastern Louisiana as a depression around Friday.

The European ensemble model guidance has a few members that show development of this system in the northern Gulf on Thursday. All of the members that do forecast development show it to come ashore over southeastern Louisiana as a depression late Friday.

Here Are My Thoughts: Given that we already have a low pressure system forming just offshore of the coasts of northeast Florida, southeast Georgia and eastern South Carolina that is producing a concentrated area of thunderstorms, I do think that there is a definite shot at this system developing into a depression and potentially even a tropical storm later this week in the northern Gulf.

The overall weather setup later this week over the northern Gulf is expected to consist of up to 10-20 knots of wind shear, very warm ocean water temperatures and a high pressure ridge that will expand to the north of this system. This could lead to this system becoming trapped and slowing way down in forward speed once it reaches the north-central Gulf near the Mississippi Delta late this week.

If this system does slow way down in forward speed later this week, it could lead to a significant flood threat across southern and southeastern Louisiana and southern Mississippi during late this week through next weekend.

As for how strong this system could be when it moves across the northern Gulf later this week – I do definitely think that strengthening into a tropical storm is very much on the table. I don’t think that we’ll see this system become a hurricane given that the overall wind shear values later this week will be marginally favorable for strengthening. That said, if this system does slow way down in forward speed later this week over the very warm waters of the north-central Gulf, it could lead to more strengthening than what I’m thinking right now.

Finally, it should be noted that this system is expected to bring some drought relieving heavy rain across much of the Florida Peninsula beginning as soon as later tonight and Monday and continuing through Thursday. Rainfall totals of 5 to 10 inches are likely across much of Central and South Florida with 2 to 5 inches of rainfall anticipated across north Florida. These rainfall amounts will very likely lead to flash flooding, especially across Central and South Florida where the highest rain amounts will be.

Forecast Rainfall Totals This Week Across Florida:

The next tropical weather discussion will be issued on Monday.