Western Gulf Of Mexico: Satellite imagery and weather analysis indicates that there is quite a bit in the way of thunderstorm activity occurring over the western Gulf of Mexico. The cause for this widespread convection is an upper level low pressure system and because of this, any tropical development will likely be very slow to occur.
Even though any tropical development is expected to be slow to occur, this disturbance over the western Gulf of Mexico is something that’ll still need to be watched closely. That said, most of the model guidance show no real development from this disturbed weather. The exception to this is the ICON model which does show some development around Sunday and Monday near the middle and lower Texas coast. The other exception is some of the ensemble model guidance which seems to suggest there’s about a 30 percent chance of tropical development near the Texas coast this weekend into early next week.
Even if this area of disturbed weather does not develop, it will bring plentiful amounts of rain from southern Louisiana through southeastern Texas over the next several days. Upwards of 5 to 10 inches of rainfall can be expected.
Bottom Line Is That there is enough evidence in the data to suggest that the area of disturbed weather over the western Gulf of Mexico is something to keep an eye on. It should be noted that if a tropical system does develop over the western Gulf of Mexico this weekend or during early next week, it’ll be very slow moving due to very weak steering winds. This means where exactly this system moves will be important in determining heavy rainfall potential. A system that sits offshore of the Texas or Louisiana coast wouldn’t be a big deal in terms of excessive rainfall. On the other hand, a tropical system that slowly moves along the western or northern Gulf coast could produce an excessive rainfall problem and it’s something to keep an eye on.
Tropical Wave Located Halfway Between The Lesser Antilles & The Coast Of Africa: An elongated area of disturbed weather now located about halfway between the coast of Africa and the Lesser Antilles is associated with a tropical wave & is an item that does need to be watched over the next several days.
Even though this disturbance does need to be watched closely, it’s development over the next several days will be slow due to how strung out and disorganized it is.
That said, the model support for this disturbance to eventually develop seems to be gradually growing.
The GFS model forecasts no development until this disturbance reaches the Bahamas in about 10-11 days from now.
The Canadian model is the most aggressive of the models and shows development to occur by the time this disturbance reaches the Leeward Islands on Tuesday. Beyond this, the Canadian model forecasts this system to become a powerful hurricane in the Bahamas around next Friday and next Saturday.
The European model forecasts no development at all.
A look at the ensemble model guidance, the GFS ensemble guidance does have a handful of members that do show development by the time this disturbance reaches the northeastern Caribbean around the middle part of next week.
The European ensemble model guidance does have a fair number of members that show development by the time this system reaches the Leeward Islands around Tuesday. Beyond this, the European ensemble model guidance shows a very active look from the eastern Gulf of Mexico through the Bahamas by next weekend (September 7-8) and this includes quite a few members that are forecasting a strong hurricane.
Here Are My Thoughts: I do think that any development that occurs will be very slow for the next several days as this disturbance moves to the west.
This disturbance should reach the Leeward Islands around Tuesday. This means that those of you in Leeward Islands should continue to keep close tabs on the progress of this particular tropical wave as it could affect you by about Tuesday. At the minimum, I could see this disturbance producing some very squally weather across the Leeward Islands on Tuesday and it’s quite possible it could be a tropical storm at that point.
I want to point out that the longer this disturbance takes to organize and develop, the further west it’ll eventually track in longitude. This is why we’re now seeing the longer range ensemble model guidance showing this system to cross the Caribbean and get into the northwestern Caribbean where it then significantly develops late next week and heads for the Gulf of Mexico.
For now though, this disturbance is nothing to be overly concerned about or worried about. It is a disturbance, however, that should be monitored over the next several days.
The next tropical weather discussion will be issued on Thursday.