Tropical Development Is Looking Likely This Weekend Near The Coasts Of Northeast Florida, Southeast Georgia & Eastern South Carolina: Weather analysis at the time of this writing indicated that there is a frontal boundary that stretches from the Carolinas to the Gulf Coast. This front is expected to push offshore and be located from off of the Carolinas to the northern Gulf by Friday.
I think that it is looking likely that we will see a tropical depression or even a low-end tropical storm spin up near the coastal parts of northeast Florida, southeast Georgia or eastern South Carolina as this front decays during this weekend.
Satellite imagery right now shows that most of the shower and thunderstorm activity is occurring just offshore of the Carolina coastline to just east of the Space Coast of Florida. At this time, there are no areas that are showing any sort of low or mid-level circulation, but analysis of wind shear values indicates that the wind shear is low enough to support development all along the Southeast coast of the United States.
While immediate tropical development is not expected over the next day or so, the environment does look to favor development this weekend from coastal northeast Florida to the coastal Carolinas.
Latest Model Guidance: The model guidance are in good agreement in forecasting tropical development to occur just barely offshore of coastal Georgia and the Carolinas during this weekend. This model agreement includes both the GFS and European model, as well as their ensemble model counterparts. In fact, the European ensemble model guidance is now forecasting a 90 percent chance of tropical development and a 30-40 percent chance of this system becoming a tropical storm just offshore of coastal northeast Florida, coastal Georgia and coastal South Carolina.
As for a track, the GFS ensemble model guidance seem to agree on a northeasterly track with most members taking this system near the North Carolina coast around Monday and then fairly offshore of the New England coast by about the middle part of next week.
A large majority of the European ensemble model guidance seem to be further west of the GFS ensemble model and take this system right over eastern South Carolina and eastern North Carolina on Sunday and Monday. Beyond this, the European ensemble model guidance forecast this system to curve to the northeast and pass to east of New England, although there are a couple of members that do forecast a track right over southeastern New England on Tuesday.
Here Are My Thoughts: As I already mentioned, I think that it is likely we will see the development of a tropical depression or a low-end tropical storm during this weekend near coastal parts of northeast Florida, Georgia and South Carolina. In fact, I am putting the chances for at around 80-90 percent.
This tropical system, which again looks to probably end up being a tropical depression or perhaps a low-end tropical storm, should track northward into the coastal Carolinas by later Sunday into Monday. A curve to the northeast looks most plausible early next week taking this system to the east of New England. I’m not buying into the possibility of this system directly affecting Southern New England and think it should pass to the east.
Heavy Rainfall Will Be The Main Threat With This System: Heavy rainfall is going to be a threat throughout the Fourth of July weekend across much of the Florida Peninsula & particularly along the west coast of Florida and along the I-4 corridor from Tampa to Orlando.
The heaviest rain in the form of showers and thunderstorms throughout the rest of today looks to occur along the west and southwest coasts of Florida, especially from Tampa and points south.
Turning to Friday, the environment will be favorable for widespread showers and thunderstorms with locally heavy rainfall across much of the Florida Peninsula. The area of most concern will be right along the entire I-4 corridor from Tampa through Orlando to Daytona Beach where over 3 inches of additional rainfall is expected.
Turning to Saturday and Sunday, the heavy rainfall looks to shift to the coastal areas of Georgia, South Carolina and North Carolina as that tropical depression or low-end tropical storm takes shape. Upwards of 2 to 5 inches of rainfall looks possible, especially across coastal South Carolina and coastal North Carolina.
Heavy rain also looks to continue along Florida’s I-4 corridor on Saturday with an additional 1 to 2 inches expected.
The heavy rainfall during the next few days across the Florida Peninsula and particularly along the west coast of Florida and along the I-4 corridor will lead to localized areas of flooding with urban areas and low-lying areas most vulnerable.
Forecast Total Rainfall Amounts The Next Few Days:
The next tropical weather discussion will be issued on Friday.