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A tropical wave located over the eastern Tropical Atlantic near about 25 West Longitude has the chance to develop into a tropical system once it reaches the western Caribbean sometime during the later parts of next week.

For the next several days, this tropical wave is expected to head westward & not develop at all. It should reach the eastern Caribbean around early next week and then reach the central Caribbean around the middle part of next week, all while probably not developing into a tropical system. The reason why tropical development looks unlikely from this wave for the next week or so is due to its fast forward speed, which will make it hard for the wave to develop any sort of low level circulation that’s able to line up with the convection & develop.

Once this wave reaches the central Caribbean around the middle part of next week, it is expected to slow down in forward speed. At the same time this is occurring, there are signs in the data that suggests the environmental conditions may be favorable for development in the central and western Caribbean. This means that this wave may try to develop into a tropical system once it moves in the western Caribbean during the later parts of next week.

The signal in the model guidance is mixed as some guidance do show development & possibly significant development. Other guidance, on the other hand, show little or no development.

The reason for the mixed signals in the guidance seems to have to with whether the wave is able to be tugged northward before it reaches the central Caribbean. Some guidance seems to keep this wave weak and headed due westward leading it to “crash” into northern parts of South America & then into Panama with no development at all. Other guidance show an upper level trough of low pressure over the Eastern US tugging this wave a little to the north, allowing it to miss South America & then develop into a significant tropical system in the western Caribbean late next week and next weekend.

To be completely honest with you, it’s way, way too soon to tell which scenario may play out.

On one hand, there’s a definite way for this wave to ultimately become a very concerning and significant tropical system in the western Caribbean should it get tugged northward by that Eastern US trough before slamming into South America and then Panama. In this scenario, we could see a tropical system strengthen significantly in the western Caribbean and become a formidable hurricane that is ultimately pulled north and northeastward towards Jamaica, the Cayman Islands, Cuba, the Bahamas & maybe even the East Coast of the United States.

On the other hand, there’s an equal chance that this wave may just miss that trough and head westward into northern South America and then into Central America with no development at all.

For now, this is just a wave that needs to be watched closely over the next week to ten days or so. At this point though, I wouldn’t be overly worried or concerned about it if you are in the western Caribbean as there is a ton of time to keep close tabs on it.

The next tropical weather discussion will be issued on Wednesday.

Latest On The Strong Coastal Storm On The East Coast: An area of low pressure is currently located very near the coast of southeastern North Carolina as of the time of this writing. Weather observations as of late this morning show this storm is producing wind gusts of up to 35-45 mph all along the coast from the North Carolina Outer Banks northward to Long Island. These winds are expected to increase even further this afternoon reaching their peak from late today through tonight and into Monday with gusts of up to 50-60 mph likely.

Additionally, this storm is still expected to bring other very significant impacts to areas from the North Carolina Outer Banks and the Tidewater of Virginia northward through the coastal parts of the Delmarva, coastal New Jersey, Long Island and Southern New England. These include several high tide cycles of moderate to major coastal flooding, waves of 15 to 20 feet, beach erosion and 1 to 3 inches of rainfall. The worst of these impacts are expected to occur throughout this afternoon, tonight and Monday.

The coastal flooding continues to look to the big threat from this storm:

For The North Carolina Outer Banks & Coastal Virginia: Moderate to major coastal flooding is expected during the high tide cycles of today and tonight. Areas from the northern parts of the Outer Banks through southeastern and eastern Virginia are very likely to see major coastal flooding during today’s midday high tide cycle and tonight’s midnight high tide cycle.

For The Delmarva Coastline & Coastal New Jersey: Major coastal flooding is fully expected during multiple high tide cycles along the Jersey shore through the Delmarva. This means that you should expect major coastal flooding during today’s midday high tide cycle, tonight’s midnight high tide cycle and Monday’s midday high tide cycle. The coastal flooding along the Jersey Shore and the Delmarva is going to be very, very bad & those of you in these areas should be ready for some of the worst flooding since Hurricane Sandy and the January, 2016 Nor’Easter.

For Long Island & Southern New England: Minor coastal flooding looks likely for the beaches of Southern New England and moderate coastal flooding can be expected across Long Island during the high tide cycles of today, tonight and Monday.

By far, the most severe coastal flooding is expected to occur in the area from coastal New Jersey southward through the Delmarva.

The winds with this coastal storm are likely to be quite strong. Wind gusts of 50-60 mph are likely from the North Carolina Outer Banks and the Virginia coastline northward through the Delmarva, the New Jersey coastline and into Long Island and coastal Southern New England. The strongest of these winds look to occur beginning later today and last through tonight and Monday.

In addition to the coastal flooding and strong winds, very rough surf can be expected through Tuesday. This will lead to significant beach erosion all along the coast from the North Carolina Outer Banks northward through the Delmarva, the Jersey Shore, Long Island & Southern New England.

Rainfall totals with this coastal storm look to average between 1 and 3 inches from the Delmarva northward into Southern New England. While this rainfall is not expected to be overly excessive, it could still produce some areas of flooding.

The Bottom Line Is That this is going to be one of the worst nor’easters for the Mid-Atlantic coastline through the Jersey Shore & Long Island in over a decade. Expect major issues and damage along this part of the East Coast. Please take this storm very seriously.

The next tropical weather discussion will be issued on Tuesday.

Latest On The Strong Coastal Storm On The East Coast: The latest weather analysis today shows that low pressure is located just offshore of the coasts of Georgia and South Carolina. It continues to look very likely that this storm system will bring very significant impacts to areas from Coastal North Carolina northward to Long Island and Southern New England, especially on Sunday & Monday.

What sort of significant impacts are we talking about from the North Carolina Outer Banks and the Tidewater of Virginia northward through the coastal parts of the Delmarva, coastal New Jersey, Long Island and Southern New England? Several high tide cycles of moderate to major coastal flooding, waves of 15 to 20 feet, beach erosion, wind gusts of 50-60 mph and 1 to 3 inches of rainfall. The worst of these impacts are expected to occur on Sunday, Sunday night and Monday.

First and foremost, the coastal flood threat will be the big story with this storm –

For The North Carolina Outer Banks & Coastal Virginia: Moderate to possibly major coastal flooding is expected during the high tide cycles on Sunday. Areas from the northern parts of the Outer Banks through southeastern and eastern Virginia are very likely to see major coastal flooding during the midday Sunday high tide cycle.

For The Delmarva Coastline & Coastal New Jersey: Major coastal flooding is fully expected during multiple high tide cycles along the Jersey shore through the Delmarva. This means that you should expect major coastal flooding during the midday Sunday high tide cycle. A second and third round of major coastal flooding is then expected during Sunday night’s high tide cycle and during midday Monday’s high tide cycle. The coastal flooding along the Jersey Shore and the Delmarva is going to be very, very bad & those of you in these areas should be ready for some of the worst flooding since Hurricane Sandy and the January, 2016 Nor’Easter.

For Long Island & Southern New England: Since it appears that the strongest gradient with this storm system should stay just south of Southern New England, it appears that generally minor coastal flooding can be expected during the high tide cycles on Sunday, Sunday night and Monday.

Once again, the most severe coastal flooding is expected to occur in the area from coastal New Jersey southward through the Delmarva.

The winds with this coastal storm are likely to be quite strong. Wind gusts of 50-60 mph are likely from the North Carolina Outer Banks and the Virginia coastline northward through the Delmarva, the New Jersey coastline and into Long Island and coastal Southern New England. The strongest of these winds look to occur during Sunday, Sunday night and Monday.

In addition to the coastal flooding and strong winds, very rough surf can be expected that lasts for upwards of 48 hours (starting tonight & Sunday & lasting until Tuesday). This will lead to significant beach erosion all along the coast from the North Carolina Outer Banks northward through the Delmarva, the Jersey Shore, Long Island & Southern New England.

Rainfall totals with this coastal storm look to average between 1 and 3 inches from eastern North Carolina northward through the Mid-Atlantic States into Southern New England. While this rainfall is not expected to be overly excessive, it could still produce some areas of flooding.

The Bottom Line Is That this is going to be one of the worst nor’easters for the Mid-Atlantic coastline through the Jersey Shore & Long Island in over a decade. Expect significant to major issues and damage along this part of the East Coast. Please take this storm very seriously.

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Tropical Development Possible Between The Lesser Antilles & The Coast Of Africa Later Next Week & Next Weekend: I think that we will probably have one more decent shot at tropical development in the tropical Atlantic around late next week before things begin to shut down.

An upward motion pulse of the Madden Julian Oscillation seems to be now pushing into the Atlantic Basin & will help to energize a couple of tropical waves over the next week to 10 days.

One tropical wave that is now located over the eastern Tropical Atlantic is very likely to curve to the north quickly & probably will become our next tropical storm as it does so. This first tropical wave, which the National Hurricane Center has highlighted in their latest outlook will be of no threat to anyone & should curve safely out into the open Atlantic.

A second tropical wave, which looks to be currently located over western Africa is expected to push off of the coast of Africa & enter the far eastern tropical Atlantic over the next couple of days. All indications are pointing towards this particular wave becoming a “low-rider” & perhaps developing into a tropical storm near the southern Leeward Islands and the Windward Islands as we get into next weekend.

There is then the possibility that this particular wave could move into the Caribbean during the week of October 20 & if this occurs, it could be a system to watch very, very closely. The ocean waters of the Caribbean are extremely warm & are virtually untouched by tropical systems so far this season. Because of this, any tropical system moving through the Caribbean could become a big, big problem if it is able to get going.

For now though, this is just a tropical wave to keep an eye on, especially once it “splashes down” in the eastern tropical Atlantic in a couple of days from now.

The next tropical weather discussion will be issued on Sunday.

Very Significant East Coast Storm Expected This Weekend Into Early Next Week: Weather analysis today reveals that a low pressure system is forming offshore of Florida’s East Coast. This storm system is fully expected to bring very significant impacts to areas from Coastal North Carolina northward to Long Island and Southern New England this weekend into early next week.

It is expected that this storm system will lift northward over the next couple of days reaching the North Carolina Outer Banks on Sunday and then reaching the Jersey Shore on Monday. It is then anticipated that this storm system will stall briefly near the Jersey Shore before turning to the east and southeast and heading out away from land on Tuesday.

Significant impacts are expected from the North Carolina Outer Banks and the Tidewater of Virginia northward through the coastal parts of the Delmarva, coastal New Jersey, Long Island and Southern New England. What sort of impacts are we expecting? Several high tide cycles of moderate to major coastal flooding, waves of 15 to 20 feet, beach erosion, wind gusts of 50-60 mph and 1 to 3 inches of rainfall. The worst of these impacts are expected to occur on Sunday, Sunday night and Monday.

Looking first and foremost at the coastal flood threat –

For The North Carolina Outer Banks & Coastal Virginia: Moderate to possibly major coastal flooding is expected on Saturday night and Sunday. The high tide forecast for midday Sunday in Norfolk is expected to reach 6 feet, which is considered major coastal flooding. Also, the high tide forecast on the northern part of the North Carolina Outer Banks is also expected to reach 6 feet around midday Sunday, which is considered moderate coastal flooding.

For The Delmarva Coastline & Coastal New Jersey: Some of the highest high tides since Hurricane Sandy and the January, 2016 Nor’Easter are expected during the day on Sunday. This means that major coastal flooding can be expected during Sunday’s high tide cycle all along the Jersey Shore into the Delmarva.

Atlantic City is expected to reach 8.2 feet during Sunday morning’s high tide cycle, which would be the highest since Hurricane Sandy.

The back bays in Jersey are likely to see the highest tides since the January, 2016 Nor’Easter. For Cape May, a high tide of 8.8 feet is expected, which would only be the second highest high tide on record with the first being 9.4 feet recorded during the January, 2016 Nor’Easter.

For Long Island & Southern New England: Since it appears that the strongest gradient with this storm system should stay just south of Southern New England, it appears that minor to moderate coastal flooding can be expected during the high tide cycles on Sunday and Monday.

By far though, the most severe coastal flooding impacts are likely to occur in the area from southern New Jersey into the Delmarva.

The winds with this coastal storm are likely to be quite strong. Wind gusts of 50-60 mph are likely from the North Carolina Outer Banks and the Virginia coastline northward through the Delmarva, the New Jersey coastline and into Long Island and coastal Southern New England. The strongest of these winds look to occur during Sunday, Sunday night and Monday.

In addition to the coastal flooding and strong winds, very rough surf can be expected that lasts for upwards of 48 hours. This will lead to significant beach erosion all along the coast from the North Carolina Outer Banks northward through the Delmarva, the Jersey Shore, Long Island & Southern New England.

Rainfall totals with this coastal storm look to average between 1 and 3 inches from eastern North Carolina northward through the Mid-Atlantic States into Southern New England. While this rainfall is not expected to be overly excessive, it could still produce some areas of flooding.

The Bottom Line Is That even though this storm system probably will remain non-tropical and not be considered a sub-tropical storm or a tropical storm, it will still bring some very significant coastal impacts, especially in the Delmarva and along the Jersey Shore. Because of this, please take this storm very seriously.

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Tropical Storm Jerry: Jerry continues to be a disorganized mess as it now pulls away from the Leeward Islands. Even though Jerry is now moving away from the Leeward Islands, the “tail” behind Jerry will likely produce additional heavy rainfall across the Leeward Islands over the next couple of days. This additional heavy rainfall will produce some localized flooding.

Additionally, Jerry is still expected to stay far enough to the east of Bermuda to not be any sort of a threat to the island.

The next tropical weather discussion will be issued on Saturday.

A Strong Coastal Storm Is Expected This Weekend From Coastal North Carolina To Southern New England: A strong cold front is currently pushing through the Southeastern United States & likely will make it as far south as the Florida Peninsula over the next day or two. This front will set up a strong temperature gradient along it and help to develop a low pressure that forms offshore of Florida’s East Coast by late Friday.

As we get into Saturday, it is expected that the coastal storm system will be located just offshore of the South Carolina and North Carolina coasts. This low pressure system will create gusty winds and heavy rain across eastern North Carolina and northeastern South Carolina during the day on Saturday.

Turning to Saturday night and Sunday, strong onshore winds with gusts of 50-60 mph can be expected along the North Carolina Outer Banks and across the Tidewater of Virginia. Moderate to major coastal flooding is likely at the time of high tide along the North Carolina Outer Banks and across the Tidewater of Virginia during Saturday night and Sunday. Additionally, major coastal flooding is also very possible across the lower Chesapeake Bay on Saturday night and Sunday.

Additionally, during the day on Sunday, that low pressure system is likely to strengthen even more as it tracks northward reaching coastal parts of Virginia . This will lead to heavy rain, wind gusts of up to 60 mph, moderate to major coastal flooding, beach erosion and very high surf to occur from the Outer Banks of North Carolina and points north, including the Tidewater of Virginia, Chesapeake Bay, the Jersey Shore, Long Island and Southern New England.

Significant impacts from this storm are likely to last through Monday into Tuesday from the Jersey Shore and Long Island through Southern New England before the low pressure system weakens and heads out into the open Atlantic.

It should be noted that this storm system will start its life as a non-tropical storm on Friday and Saturday. It’s possible though that this storm system could acquire some characteristics of a hybrid sub-tropical type storm as we get into Sunday and Monday. If this occurs and we do see a sub-tropical storm form from this system, it would get a name (Karen). Whether this storm becomes a sub-tropical storm or remains a non-tropical storm, its impacts from the North Carolina coastline to Southern New England will be the same.

Bottom Line Is That this is expected to be a long-duration coastal storm & because of this, there will be significant coastal impacts in the way of coastal flooding over multiple high tide cycles from the North Carolina Outer Banks to Southern New England. Additionally, heavy rainfall with amounts of 2 to 4 inches and strong onshore winds with gusts of 50-plus mph can be expected along the coast from the North Carolina coast to Southern New England can be expected.

Everyone from eastern North Carolina through the Mid-Atlantic states to Southern New England need to keep very close tabs on this storm and be ready for a long-duration storm that lasts 2 to 3 days or so.

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Tropical Storm Jerry: Jerry is still a lopsided and rough looking tropical storm today. Most of the strong winds and deep convection are found on the eastern side of the storm. Still though, reconnaissance aircraft have found that Jerry has winds of up to 65 mph.

It now looks like that Jerry will head a little closer to parts of the Leeward Islands as compared to what was forecast just yesterday. Because of this, the islands of Antigua and Barbuda are very likely to see tropical storm conditions starting later this afternoon and continuing through tonight. Those of you on the islands of Antigua and Barbuda should be ready for tropical storm conditions.

Elsewhere across the Leeward Islands, Jerry should pass just barely far enough east to miss the rest of the Leeward Islands with tropical storm force winds. That said, any further west shifts in the track of Jerry would put tropical storm force winds over St. Martin and Anguilla during tonight into Friday morning. My advice for those of you on the islands of St. Martin and Anguilla is to prepare for tropical storm force winds, just in case.

Additionally, a tail of moisture on the backside of Jerry is also expected to impact all of the Leeward Islands and the Virgin Islands leading to squally weather to occur from tomorrow through Saturday. Some of this moisture may also reach as far west as Puerto Rico later Friday into Saturday. Any persistent squally rain bands on the back side of Jerry could lead to localized flooding across the Leeward Islands and Virgin Islands as rain totals of 2 to 5 inches can be expected.

Finally, Jerry does not pose a threat to Bermuda as the storm is expected to turn to the north and northeast well east of the island.

The next tropical weather discussion will be issued on Friday.

Significant Coastal Storm Expected This Weekend Across The Carolinas & Mid-Atlantic States: All signs are pointing towards a coastal storm that will impact the Eastern Seaboard from the Carolinas to Southern New England beginning on Saturday and lasting through early next week. This storm looks to bring some significant impacts, including moderate to major coastal flooding, gusty onshore winds and heavy rain to areas including coastal parts of the Carolinas and the Mid-Atlantic States, as well as Long Island and Southern New England.

What looks to occur is that a low pressure system will form just offshore of the South and North Carolina coastlines on Saturday and then move northward near coastal parts of the Mid-Atlantic states during Sunday. From there, this storm system may end up moving close to Long Island and the south coast of New England on Monday before it turns eastward and moves out away from the US East Coast.

It should be noted that this storm system will not be a tropical system at first & likely will begin its life as a non-tropical nor’easter type storm. That being said, there is the possibility that this storm system could transition into a sub-tropical storm system as it interacts with the very warm waters of the Gulf Stream as we get into Sunday and Monday. Should this storm system become a sub-tropical storm, it would get a name & it’s name would be Karen.

Whether this storm system becomes a sub-tropical storm or not, the impacts along the East Coast will be exactly the same.

What Sort Of Impacts Could This Storm Bring? It is very likely that this storm system will bring days of very gusty winds, soaking heavy rainfall, moderate to major coastal flooding, rough surf and beach erosion. These impacts would start in the Carolinas and the Mid-Atlantic states this weekend and then spread northward into Southern New England early next week.

There are some uncertainties to this storm system & this has more to do with how bad will the impacts be. While the surf is very likely to very rough and there will definitely be beach erosion, it’s unclear as to how severe the coastal flooding will be. Also, it’s unclear right now as to how strong the winds will be along the coast and how far inland will these strong winds spread.

Based on what I’m seeing in the model guidance, I would say that moderate to even major coastal flooding could occur this weekend from the North Carolina Outer Banks northward through the Chesapeake to the Jersey Shore. Also, wind gusts of 40 to 60 mph seem most possible right along the coast from the Carolinas northward to Southern New England. Finally, expect a soaking rain with amounts of 2 to 5 inches possible this weekend from eastern North Carolina and eastern Virginia northward to coastal parts of New Jersey.

Those of you along the coastline from the Carolinas northward through the Mid-Atlantic coastline to Long Island and Southern New England should be ready for a long-duration storm that lasts several days. This means that you should expect prolonged coastal flooding that occurs over multiple high-tide cycles, especially for the area from North Carolina Outer Banks to the Jersey Shore & possibly as far north as Long Island and Southern New England. Also, you might want to prepare for a prolonged gusty wind event with wind gusts of up to 40-60 mph, which could cause some damage.

Bottom Line Is That A significant coastal storm looks increasingly very likely to occur this weekend from the Carolinas and points northward to as far as Southern New England.

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Tropical Storm Jerry: Jerry is a sheared tropical storm that actually looked better yesterday than it does right now. The low-level center of the storm is not lined up at all with the deep convection that’s occurring with the storm. Even with this, reconnaissance aircraft have found that the storm has 60 mph maximum winds.

Jerry is moving very quickly to the west-northwest as a high pressure ridge to the north of the storm steers it in this direction. The western end of this high pressure ridge stops at about the longitude of the Lesser Antilles with a weakness in the high pressure ridge found just to the northwest of the Lesser Antilles.

This means that Jerry will begin to turn to the northwest sometime during the day on Thursday and because of this, the center of Jerry should pass only about 60-80 miles to the northeast of the northern Leeward Islands during Thursday evening. Because of this close pass to the northern Leeward Islands, rain squalls and gusty winds will likely affect the Leeward Islands during Thursday into Friday. Of some particular concern are the islands of Antigua, Barbuda, St. Barts, St. Martin and Anguilla where wind gusts of up to 50-60 mph could occur during Thursday night. Finally, Jerry will produce rainfall totals of 2 to 4 inches across much of the Leeward Islands starting on Thursday and lasting into Friday & this could lead to localized flood issues.

As for Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands, Jerry does not pose a direct threat, however, moisture trailing behind Jerry as the storm pulls north will lead to an increased rain threat throughout this weekend.

Finally, Jerry does not pose a threat to Bermuda as the storm is expected to turn to the north and northeast well east of the island.

The next tropical weather discussion will be issued on Thursday.

Tropical Storm Jerry: The disturbance over the central Tropical Atlantic that has been labeled Invest 95-L has become much better organized today with increasing amounts of concentrated convection near a low-level center. Additionally, satellite derived wind data reveals a closed circulation and winds of up to 45 mph. Because of this, the National Hurricane Center has upgraded this system to Tropical Storm Jerry.

A look at the latest model guidance reveals that Jerry will probably strengthen over the next couple of days & it could be a hurricane by the time it tracks very close to the northern Leeward Islands late Thursday into Friday.

The track model guidance are a little eyebrow raising as some of the guidance have trended back towards a path that takes Jerry very, very close to the far northern Leeward Islands. In fact, the Google Deep Mind AI model guidance now shows a track that puts the northern Leeward Islands in line for a direct impact from Jerry Thursday afternoon and Thursday night.

Other track model guidance, including the consensus guidance, still show a path that takes Jerry north of the islands. That said, there is enough uncertainty now in the forecast that says those of you in the Leeward Islands and particularly the northern Leeward need to keep very, very close watch on the forecasts of Jerry. It isn’t going to take a whole lot of a shift in the consensus forecast track to put tropical storm and even hurricane conditions right over the northern Leeward Islands from Antigua and Barbuda northward through Anguilla and St. Martin starting sometime on Thursday and continuing into Friday.

As for the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico – It appears that the outer rain bands from Jerry will affect the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico with squally weather likely starting on Friday and lasting into this weekend.

One thing that is for sure is Jerry will not be a problem at all for the Bahamas or the United States as a strong cold front pushing offshore of the East Coast on Wednesday will kick Jerry out into the open Atlantic.

Model Track Forecast:

Satellite Imagery:

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Weekend Storm System Along The Carolinas & Mid-Atlantic Is Quite Likely: It continues to look rather likely that a storm system will take shape near the coast of the Carolinas by Friday night and Saturday and then move very slowly along the coastlines of the Carolinas and the Mid-Atlantic states throughout this weekend into early next week. This storm has the very real potential to bring heavy rain, gusty onshore winds, rough surf and coastal flooding in the coastal Carolinas and along the Mid-Atlantic coastline.

While it is very likely that this low pressure system will start out as non-tropical in nature, it is possible that it could try to transform into a sub-tropical storm during this weekend, especially if it slowly moves over the waters of the Gulf Stream. This is something that’ll definitely be watched closely.

The impacts from this storm system will be the same, whether it’s a non-tropical or a sub-tropical storm. These impacts will include the coastal Carolinas and the Mid-Atlantic states being hit very hard this weekend by bands of heavy rain, gusty onshore winds gusting up to 50 mph, very rough surf and coastal flooding.

There is quite a bit of uncertainty as to how far north this storm system may move early next week. Some guidance show a far enough north track so that areas from New York City through Long Island and into Southern New England would be impacted by heavy rain, gusty winds and rough surf early next week. Other guidance show no such northward track & keeps all of impacts in the Carolinas and the Mid-Atlantic states as high pressure shields New England from any impacts.

I will continue to keep a close eye on this storm system & will have more updates in the days to come.

The next tropical weather discussion will be issued on Wednesday.

Invest 95-L Located Over The Central Tropical Atlantic: Satellite imagery and weather analysis reveals that Invest 95-L, which is located over the central Tropical Atlantic near 37 West Longitude, is producing a large area of convection. Most of this convection is disorganized, however, it does seem to look a bit better in the way of organization than it did yesterday.

A look at the environmental conditions around Invest 95-L reveals that the conditions aren’t all that favorable for development. The reason for this is due to west-northwesterly wind shear of 15 to 25 knots impacting this system. Additionally, there is dry air found on the western and northwestern sides of Invest 95-L.

A look at the model guidance reveals that many of them have backed off on their forecasts of how strong Invest 95-L might become. A majority of the guidance now seems to show Invest 95-L peaking at either tropical storm or Category 1 hurricane strength. Given the not so favorable environmental conditions that are affecting Invest 95-L, I don’t think we’ll see it become that strong.

At this point, I think that Invest 95-L will probably turn in time to just miss the northern Leeward Islands and northeastern Caribbean and because of this, it’ll be another grazing event for the northeastern Caribbean. Additionally, I do think that Invest 95-L will probably be anywhere between a 40 to 60 mph tropical storm as it passes just to the north of the northern Leeward Islands on Thursday night & it should be just far enough away to not bring tropical storm force winds to the Leeward Islands. That said, some rain squalls from the outer bands of this system could affect the far northern Leeward Islands on Thursday night.

For now though, those of you in the northern Leeward Islands should still keep an eye on Invest 95-L, just in case.

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An East Coast Storm Is Quite Likely For This Weekend: Another area to keep a close eye on is the potential for a storm system to form off of the Southeast coast of the US around Friday night and Saturday. This storm system has the potential to become quite a weather maker along much of the Eastern Seaboard this weekend with heavy rain, gusty onshore winds, rough surf and coastal flooding all possible.

The weather setup leading to the formation of this notable storm system will be the combination of a cold front pushing off of the East Coast on Wednesday, low pressure forming near the Florida Keys and an upper level weather disturbance forming near the southeast coast of the US.

Given that this low pressure system will be moving northeastward and then northward from the tropical waters of the Florida Keys and the northern Bahamas, there is the possibility that it could be a sub-tropical or even a tropical system and this is something that’ll need to be watched closely. In fact, some of the model guidance are pointing to the idea that this storm system could be at least sub-tropical in nature & very possibly an actual tropical storm.

The potential impacts from this system could be fairly significant along the East Coast, whether it becomes a sub-tropical or tropical system or not. The coast of the Carolinas and the Mid-Atlantic states look to be hit very hard once again with gusty onshore winds gusting up to 50 mph, very rough surf and coastal flooding. We have already seen numerous homes get washed away in the Outer Banks as rough seas and erosion from other storms such as Erin, Humerto and Imelda. Another significant coastal storm would be very bad news & unfortunately, even more damage looks likely this weekend along the coastal Carolinas and the Mid-Atlantic.

Some of the impacts from this storm may push northward into areas from New York City through Long Island and into Southern New England by later Sunday and Monday. How significant these impacts are will depend on how far north the low pressure system moves & it is something to keep a close eye on.

I will be keeping a close eye on this potential weekend storm system & will have many more updates in the days to come.

The next tropical weather discussion will be issued on Tuesday.

Low Pressure Located Near South Florida & The Northwestern Bahamas: I continue to keep an eye on a low pressure system that’s located in the area around South Florida & the northwestern Bahamas. Most of the convection that’s occurring with this low pressure system is just to the east of the eastern Bahamas.

A look at the environmental conditions around this low pressure system reveals that the wind shear values are far too strong to support any sort of development. Because of this, I do not expect any sort of development from this low pressure system as it slowly moves in the area from the northwestern Bahamas into South Florida over the next couple of days or so.

Interestingly, the latest ICON model, which did very well with Imelda, forecasts that a tropical storm will form over the southeastern Gulf very near southwest Florida late next week. While both the GFS and European deterministic models do not show this development, there are a couple of ensemble members that do show similar development over the southeastern Gulf late next week. The Google Deep Mind AI model also shows no development in the southeastern Gulf later next week. While I’ll certainly be keeping an eye on whatever low pressure systems that form near South Florida, I think that the development chances are very low.

The meandering low pressure system near South Florida this weekend will produce locally heavy rain across parts of Florida’s East Coast, especially as we get into Sunday, Monday and Tuesday. Areas along Florida’s East Coast from about Port Saint Lucie northward to Daytona looks to receive the heaviest rainfall amounts over the next few days with 2 to 5 inches of rain expected.

In addition, the weather setup over the Bahamas and Florida will likely lead to a persistent onshore wind flow to be in place for the next several days along Florida’s East Coast. Because of this, expect rip currents, rough surf and hazardous marine conditions all along Florida’s East Coast.

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Low Pressure Located Over The North-Central Gulf: Weather analysis reveals that a weak low pressure system has formed over the north-central Gulf. This weather system is producing shower and thunderstorm activity across areas just offshore of the coasts of Louisiana, Mississippi, and Alabama. 

The wind shear over the Gulf is far too strong to support any sort of development and because of this, tropical development is not expected.

This low pressure system will produce locally heavy rainfall across far southeastern parts of Louisiana, coastal Mississippi and coastal Alabama over the next couple of days. Rainfall totals of 2 to 4 inches are possible with even higher amounts offshore.

This low pressure system is anticipated to move onshore along the Texas coast by Monday.

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Tropical Development Continues To Be Possible Over The Central Tropical Atlantic During Next Week: A tropical wave is moving across the far eastern Tropical Atlantic today. This wave is producing a large area of disorganized shower and thunderstorm activity over the eastern Tropical Atlantic.

A look at the environmental conditions over the central and eastern tropical Atlantic reveals that the wind shear values are marginally favorable for development. This is due to strong wind shear found north of 15 North Latitude, but much lower wind shear values south of 15 North Latitude. This means that for this wave to develop, it’ll have to remain at a fairly low latitude. Also, there is dry air found between 35 and 45 West Longitude & this should inhibit any sort of quick development.

Based on my analysis, I think that we’ll probably see slow organization and development of this wave as it heads westward over the next several days. In fact, it’s not out of the realm of possibilities that this wave might wait until it’s west of 50 West Longitude to begin developing.

A look at the most recent model guidance reveals that the GFS model showing development occurring by the middle part of next week once this wave reaches 45 West Longitude. The GFS model then forecasts a very close pass to the northern Leeward Islands as a hurricane late next week.

The Canadian model shows even quicker development beginning near 40 West Longitude on Tuesday. The Canadian model then forecasts this system to miss the Leeward Islands to the east and northeast late next week.

The ICON model forecasts this system to be a monster hurricane and shows it to barely miss the Leeward Islands to the east and northeast late next week as a major hurricane.

Interestingly, the European model forecasts little or no development of this wave even when it gets close to the northern Leeward Islands late next week.

Even though there are a lot of models that do show development of this wave, I’m not quite sold on the idea due to the unfavorable or marginally favorable conditions I’ve already mentioned.

That said, my recommendation for those of you in the Lesser Antilles, Virgin Island and Puerto Rico is to still keep an eye on the progress of this wave. In particular, those of you in the northern Leeward Islands should keep especially close watch of this wave. While I do think tropical development of this wave looks slow to occur, it could still happen once it gets west of 50 West Longitude around Wednesday and Thursday. This means that this wave should reach the Leeward Islands around Friday, whether it develops or not.

The next tropical weather discussion will be issued on Monday.

Low Pressure Will Bring Heavy Rain To Florida’s East Coast This Weekend: Weather analysis today reveals that there is a weak low pressure system located over the central Bahamas. This weather system is currently producing some scattered shower and thunderstorm activity across eastern Florida. This convection is also occurring over the northern and eastern Bahamas, however, all of the convection is very disorganized.

Analysis of environmental conditions reveals that there is strong wind shear occurring over this system & because of this, development into a tropical system looks highly unlikely.

It is expected that this low pressure system will meander in the area around the northern Bahamas and the Florida Peninsula through this weekend. Because of this, it will produce rounds of thunderstorms with heavy rainfall all along Florida’s East Coast throughout this weekend. In addition, this heavy rain looks to persist along Florida’s East Coast right into much of next week, which could exacerbate the flood threat.

All-in-all, rainfall totals of 4 to 8 inches with locally higher amounts can be expected up and down Florida’s East Coast, which will probably lead to urban flood issues.

Additionally, the weather setup over the Bahamas and Florida will likely lead to a persistent onshore wind flow to be in place for the next several days along Florida’s East Coast. Because of this, expect rip currents, rough surf and hazardous marine conditions all along Florida’s East Coast.

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Tropical Development Continues To Be Possible Over The Central Tropical Atlantic As Soon As The First Half Of Next Week: A tropical wave has pushed off of the coast of Africa and is currently located over the far eastern Tropical Atlantic. This wave is producing a large area of convection, however, none of the convection is organized or concentrated.

It is expected that this wave will interact with a surface trough of low pressure that’s located to the northwest of the Cape Verde Islands during this weekend. It is then expected that this entire system should push into the central Tropical Atlantic during the first half of next week & tropical development may become somewhat possible by then.

Even though development is a possibility, it is definitely not a certainty. The reason why is because it appears that the conditions for development are not all that favorable. This includes some dry air over the tropical Atlantic, especially in the region between 35 and 45 West Longitude. Also, the easterly mid-level winds over the tropical Atlantic look rather quick & because of this, our wave might have a hard time trying to consolidate and develop as it will not really be able to vertically align.

All-in-all, while development of this wave looks definitely possible as it heads westward across the tropical Atlantic, I think there’s actually a better chance that it doesn’t develop much at all due to the unfavorable conditions I’ve already mentioned. It’s not out of the realm of possibilities that this disturbance could end up being a “dud” like Invest 99-L from late August.

That being said, my recommendation to those of you in the Lesser Antilles, Virgin Island and Puerto Rico is to keep a close eye on the progress of this wave. While I do think development looks very slow to occur, it is still possible, especially once it gets near the Lesser Antilles late next week.

The next tropical weather discussion will be issued on Saturday.