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Summary: Severe weather is expected throughout this afternoon into tonight across a large area from the ArkLaTex and the northern Gulf coast northward through the lower Mississippi Valley, the Ohio Valley and the Mid-Atlantic states.

Details: First for the Ohio Valley and the Mid-Atlantic states – Strong to severe thunderstorms are expected to continue throughout this afternoon across areas from eastern and southern Ohio and much of Pennsylvania southward through Kentucky, West Virginia, northern Virginia and Maryland. A few tornadoes and damaging winds will be a threat with these storms.

For Southeast Texas, Louisiana, Mississippi, Alabama & Tennessee – Thunderstorms are currently occurring east and southeastern Texas. These storms are expected to continue pushing eastward into Louisiana, Mississippi and Alabama during this afternoon and tonight.

The atmosphere out ahead of these storms is fairly unstable and strongly sheared. Because of this, a few tornadoes and damaging winds will be a threat with these storms as they push eastward during this afternoon and tonight.

Summary: Severe weather with the threat for strong to intense tornadoes are expected late this afternoon into this evening across northern and central Illinois, northern Indiana and southern Lower Michigan.

Details: A warm front is expected to be in place across northern Illinois, northern Indiana and lower Michigan throughout this afternoon. While this is occurring, an area of low pressure will track along this front & help to produce an environment that’s highly favorable for severe weather, including tornadoes.

Supercell severe thunderstorms are expected to develop across northern and central Illinois as early as 3-5 pm CDT this afternoon. A very unstable air mass & strong amounts of low-level wind shear will lead to a environment that’s favorable for very significant severe thunderstorms across northern and central Illinois, including very large hail and tornadoes.

By this evening, very strong low-level wind shear will increase the significant tornado threat across northern and central Illinois and northern Indiana throughout this evening.

March has started off quite active in the severe weather department with deadly tornadoes occurring yesterday in far southern Michigan & on Thursday evening in Oklahoma. Unfortunately, the weather pattern is likely to remain quite active in terms of severe weather.

For The Rest Of This Afternoon Into This Evening: Severe weather with damaging winds and a few tornadoes are expected throughout the rest of this afternoon into this evening across eastern and southern Ohio, northern West Virginia, western Pennsylvania and western New York State.

Another area of severe weather will be found across southern and eastern Texas, central and northern Louisiana, southern Arkansas, much of Mississippi, northwestern Alabama, western and middle Tennessee and western Kentucky. Damaging winds will be the main threat with any severe storms.

The severe weather should subside a bit during Sunday and Monday, but is expected to ramp up again by Tuesday and Wednesday.

Tuesday & Wednesday: An active severe weather pattern is expected during Tuesday and Wednesday from the southern Plains states into the middle and lower Mississippi Valley and the Ohio Valley.

During Tuesday, an area of low pressure is expected to emerge over the central and southern High Plains. To the east of this low pressure, strong southwesterly winds will pull warm, humid and unstable air northward into the central and southern Plains states into parts of the Mississippi Valley.

Severe storms will be a threat Tuesday afternoon and Tuesday evening across central and north Texas, central and eastern Oklahoma, eastern Kansas, northern Arkansas, much of Missouri, central and southern Illinois and western Indiana. Tornadoes, damaging winds and hail will all be a threat with any severe weather.

Turning to Wednesday, an intensifying low pressure will track from the Great Lakes into Ontario and Quebec. A cold front will stretch southwestward from this low pressure system and push into the Ohio Valley, the Tennessee Valley and parts of the Mississippi Valley.

Severe storms with damaging winds and a few tornadoes will be a threat Wednesday afternoon into Wednesday evening across northern Louisiana, southern Arkansas, central and northern Mississippi, western and middle Tennessee, much of Kentucky, southern Indiana, much of Ohio, western Pennsylvania and western New York State.

I just wanted to update you regarding Friday afternoon and Friday evening’s potential significant severe weather across eastern Oklahoma, eastern Kansas and western Missouri.

An area of low pressure is expected to track from western Kansas to the upper Great Lakes during Friday and Friday night. A dryline will extend southward from this low pressure system into the central and southern Plains states.

The area of most concern right now is across eastern Oklahoma, eastern Kansas and western Missouri where supercell severe thunderstorms may develop by late Friday afternoon and Friday evening. Tornadoes and large hail look to be the main threat.

It’s something to certainly keep an eye on if you are located anywhere across these areas.

Before I get into the severe weather threat during the second half of this week, I need a HUGE favor from you. I’m really hoping you might be able to send any sort of support over my way. It would be appreciated more than you will ever know.

We are now OVER DRAFTED & have ZERO money in our checking account. This is because of the tremendous difficulty we continue to have to pay bills.

So, I am really, really hoping you can help us out using your credit card or you can use PayPal or Venmo to support our work. If you are a business or corporation and would like to invest in us, it would be immensely appreciated.

To help us out using your credit card or debit card, please go to the following link https://buy.stripe.com/8x2fZiaU4f4UcgO3Uxfw40c .

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On behalf of Crown Weather Services, I would like to extend my heartfelt thank you for all of your support. It is appreciated more than you will ever know.

Now, for the latest discussion on the increase in severe weather chances:

As I mentioned yesterday, the severe weather threat will be on the increase during the second half of this week. A majority of the severe weather from Wednesday and beyond will be centered across the southern and even central Plains states.

Wednesday – Some severe weather is expected during Wednesday afternoon and Wednesday evening across north-central and northeast Texas, southeast Oklahoma and western Arkansas. Hail and damaging winds will be the main threat.

Thursday – An upper level weather disturbance is expected to eject eastward from the southwestern United States during Thursday. Unstable air out ahead of this weather disturbance will lead to an environment that’s favorable for severe weather across the western parts of the southern Plains states.

Severe storms with a risk of damaging winds, hail and a couple of tornadoes are possible Thursday afternoon and Thursday evening across the Texas and Oklahoma Panhandles, northwest Texas, western Oklahoma and southwest Kansas.

Friday – Friday has the potential to be a significant severe day across the central and southern Plains states. A strong upper-level weather disturbance is expected to push northeastward into the central High Plains states during the day on Friday. Out ahead of this weather disturbance, the atmosphere will be humid and unstable across much of the central and southern Plains states.

This means that severe storms that could produce tornadoes, hail and damaging winds will be a threat across north Texas, much of central and eastern Oklahoma, western Arkansas, central and eastern Kansas, much of Missouri, eastern Nebraska and much of Iowa.

Friday’s severe weather risk does need to be watched closely as it could be quite significant.

This Weekend – On Saturday, a cold front is expected to push southward into the area from the southern Plains states through the middle Mississippi Valley and the Ohio Valley.

To the south of this cold front, some isolated severe weather looks possible during Saturday afternoon and Saturday evening from the Ark-La-Tex northeastward to the Ohio Valley.

On Sunday, a stationary frontal boundary will be in place from the southern Plains through the Ozarks to the southern Appalachians. Some very isolated severe weather is possible during Sunday afternoon to the south of this front from the lower Mississippi Valley through the Deep South.

Early Next Week: The severe weather risk may really ramp up again by Tuesday as a new upper level disturbance is expected to move into the southern Plains by then. If this occurs, then a new round of significant severe weather could occur during Tuesday afternoon and Tuesday evening across the southern and central Plains states. Something to definitely watch.

Before I get into the severe weather threat for later this week, I have a HUGE ask from me to you. I’m really hoping you might be able to send any sort of support over my way. It would be appreciated more than you will ever know.

We are now over drafted on our checking account. This is because of the tremendous difficulty we continue to have to pay bills.

So, I am really, really hoping you can help us out using your credit card or you can use PayPal or Venmo to support our work. If you are a business or corporation and would like to invest in us, it would be immensely appreciated.

To help us out using your credit card or debit card, please go to the following link https://buy.stripe.com/8x2fZiaU4f4UcgO3Uxfw40c .

To help us out using PayPal, please go to the following link – https://www.paypal.com/paypalme/crownweather .

To help us out using Venmo, please go to the following link – https://account.venmo.com/u/crownweather (if Venmo asks you to verify payment, the last 4 digits of my phone number is 0009).

On behalf of Crown Weather Services, I would like to extend my heartfelt thank you for all of your support. It is appreciated more than you will ever know.

Now, for the latest discussion on the increase in severe weather chances:

Severe weather is going to be on the increase a little later this week, in what could be potentially a very active month in terms of severe weather from the southern United States into the Ohio Valley and Midwestern US. The severe weather a little later this week will be found across the southern Plains states from north Texas to parts of Kansas and even western Missouri.

The severe weather risk looks to develop on Wednesday across north Texas, central and eastern Oklahoma and parts of western Arkansas. These severe storms will have the potential to produce damaging wind gusts and hail.

Turning To Thursday – An upper level weather disturbance is expected to eject eastward from the southwestern United States during Thursday. Unstable air out ahead of this weather disturbance will lead to an environment that’s favorable for severe weather across the western parts of the southern Plains states.

Severe storms with a risk of damaging winds, hail and a few tornadoes will be possible Thursday afternoon and Thursday evening across western Oklahoma, northwest Texas and across the Panhandle of Texas.

Friday – That weather disturbance will push into the central and southern Plains. A humid and unstable air mass will be in place from parts of western Missouri southward to north Texas during Friday.

This means that severe storms will be a threat Friday afternoon and Friday evening across north Texas, central and eastern Oklahoma, eastern Kansas and western Missouri. Damaging winds, hail and a few tornadoes will be a threat.

This Weekend – A cold front is expected to push southward across the southern Plains and the Ozarks during Saturday. Severe storms will be possible to the south of this front across north Texas, southern Oklahoma and western Arkansas during Saturday afternoon and Saturday evening.

During Sunday, that cold front is expected to push as far south as the western Gulf. Some severe weather is possible along much of coastal Texas during Sunday.

An active weather pattern is expected to remain in place through all of next week as severe weather will certainly be a threat across the southern United States with some of this severe weather spreading into the Tennessee Valley and the Ohio Valley.

A high impact major winter storm is expected to impact the Mid-Atlantic states and Southern New England beginning Sunday afternoon and lasting through all day Monday. Blizzard conditions, heavy snow and coastal flooding are all expected with this storm.

The snow is expected to first overspread the Mid-Atlantic states during the day on Sunday with heavy snow expected during Sunday afternoon and Sunday night. In addition, it is expected that the low pressure system which will bring the heavy snow and blizzard conditions will rapidly strengthen off of the Mid-Atlantic coast during Sunday afternoon and Sunday night. Because of this, expect north to northeast winds to gust up to 50-70 mph from Long Island and the Jersey shore southward into parts of the Delmarva during Sunday afternoon and Sunday night.

Heavy snow is then expected to spread into Southern New England during Sunday night and continue through all day Monday. Strong north to northeast winds gusting up to 70 mph along the coast & up to 40-50 mph inland will produce blizzard conditions across a large part of Southern New England during late Sunday night and all day Monday.

In addition to the heavy snow and blizzard conditions, moderate coastal flooding is expected from the Delaware and Jersey shores northward through Long Island and Southern New England.

Bottom line is that this is expected to be a high impact winter storm from Delaware and New Jersey northward through Long Island and Southern New England.

Finally, I did want to mention that this winter storm is expected to impact me here in Sturbridge, Mass. I’m forecasting 12 to 16 inches of snow accumulation along with blizzard conditions during Sunday night and all day Monday. In fact, it’s not out of the question that the snow totals here may end up closer to 18 or 20 inches depending on whether any very heavy snow bands set up over me.

Summary: A round of thunderstorms, some strong to severe, is expected to affect the Florida Panhandle during the first half of Sunday afternoon & then affect north Florida during late Sunday afternoon and Sunday evening. These severe thunderstorms will be capable of producing damaging wind gusts and a couple of tornadoes.

These thunderstorms, some of them strong in intensity with the threat for damaging winds, are expected to affect central Florida towards midnight on Sunday night.

Details: An area of low pressure is expected to quickly track eastward across northern Mississippi, northern Alabama and northern Georgia during the day on Sunday. A cold front is expected to extend southward from this low pressure system & is expected to cross Florida from northwest to southeast during Sunday and Sunday night.

The environmental conditions out ahead of this front will be fairly unstable, along with fairly robust amounts of low level wind shear present. This means that conditions look to be favorable for severe weather during Sunday afternoon and early Sunday evening across the Florida Panhandle and across north Florida. These favorable conditions for severe weather may extend as far south as the I-4 corridor in central Florida.

Thunderstorms look to initially push into the western Florida Panhandle during the early and mid morning hours of Sunday. It is anticipated that these thunderstorms will strengthen & become strong to severe as they push into the eastern Florida Panhandle by early Sunday afternoon. Given the favorable environmental conditions, including a fairly unstable air mass and robust low-level wind shear, some of the severe thunderstorms over the eastern Florida Panhandle will be capable of producing damaging wind gusts and a couple of tornadoes.

These strong to severe thunderstorms are then expected to push into north Florida during late Sunday afternoon and early Sunday evening. This includes Gainesville and Jacksonville. The environmental conditions are expected to remain favorable for any severe thunderstorms to produce damaging wind gusts and a couple of tornadoes.

By about midnight Sunday night, these thunderstorms should begin gradually weakening as they push through the I-4 corridor in central Florida. Still though, strong thunderstorms with some very gusty winds will be a threat across central Florida right around midnight Sunday night.

The thunderstorms then will continue to weaken as they push into south Florida during the predawn hours of Monday morning.

Finally For Those Of You Across East Texas & Louisiana – It appears that severe weather will be a threat starting across east Texas late this afternoon and then spreading across Louisiana during the overnight hours of tonight.

Thunderstorms are expected to strengthen across east Texas by late this afternoon & may pose a risk for damaging winds as they consolidate into a squall line.

This squall line of strong to severe thunderstorms will cross Louisiana from west to east during the overnight hours of tonight. Current indications are that this squall line will first affect western Louisiana during this evening & through the midnight hour. This squall line looks to then push into central Louisiana around midnight tonight and then reach eastern and southeastern Louisiana between about 1 am and 4 am Sunday morning. Damaging winds look to be the main threat from this squall line. That said, a risk for a few tornadoes will also be a threat with this squall line.

It’s been quite a cold winter thus far across the Great Lakes, the northeastern United States & the Mid-Atlantic states. December and January have had well below average temperatures across the northeastern United States, the Great Lakes and the northern Plains states.

December Temperatures As Compared To Average:

January Temperatures As Compared To Average:

As for snow, a majority of the snow so far has been confined to the northern Plains states, the Great Lakes, the Ohio Valley, the Mid-Atlantic states & the Northeastern US.

It should be noted that last night’s major winter storm significantly impacted a large part of North Carolina and parts of South Carolina with upwards of over a foot of snow. Severe blizzard conditions occurred last night on the North Carolina Outer Banks. Also, as expected, snow flurries were observed as far south as Tampa & even into parts of southwest Florida. Without a doubt, this was a historic storm that’ll probably not happen again for a long time.

Snow Totals So Far This Winter (Note – Last Night’s Carolina Winter Storm Is Not Included In These Totals):

Looking Ahead To The Month Of February – It looks like it’s going to be a cold month across much of the eastern United States with a majority of this cold centered across the Mid-Atlantic states and northeastern United States.

It also looks as though we are far from being done with snow as longer range weather guidance are pointing towards the potential for quite a snowy month across the northeastern United States.

So, for those of you in the eastern United States that are sick of winter, I’m sorry!! Winter looks to hang on for at least another month.

February Temperature Outlook:

Possible Snow Amounts During The Month Of February (Ignore The Snow Amounts In The Carolinas As This Model Was Run Yesterday & Included The Big Storm):

It’s going to be quite a wild weekend of wintry weather across the Southeastern United States. Everything from historic cold temperatures across Florida to heavy snow across the Carolinas to even blizzard conditions across the North Carolina Outer Banks.

A Carolina Snowstorm Is Expected This Weekend: A low pressure system is expected to form off of the North Carolina coast on Friday night into Saturday & then rapidly strengthen as it begins its northeast trek. This storm system is expected to combine with a record cold air mass to produce a full-blown snowstorm across the Carolinas this weekend. As that storm system rapidly strengthens, it will produce strong northerly winds leading to blizzard conditions across coastal parts of North Carolina and the North Carolina Outer Banks this weekend.

Snow is expected to overspread the Carolinas and southern Virginia during Friday night and then continue through Saturday and Saturday night before ending on Sunday morning. Widespread snow amounts of over 6 inches are expected across all of southern Virginia, all of North Carolina and across northeastern parts of South Carolina. Up to 8 to 12 inches of snow accumulation looks likely across southern Virginia, central and especially eastern North Carolina and northeastern South Carolina.

Across eastern North Carolina, the North Carolina outer banks & southeastern Virginia, strong north winds gusting up to 40-50 mph will combine with the snow to produce blizzard conditions during Saturday afternoon and Saturday night.

Historically Frigid Cold Temperatures Are Expected Across Florida On Sunday & Monday: A historic outbreak of cold temperatures is still expected to impact the Florida Peninsula during Sunday and Monday. It is likely that some of the coldest temperatures since 2010 can be expected across Florida on Sunday and Monday.

Low temperatures on both Sunday morning and Monday morning will range from the teens to low 20s across the Florida Panhandle to the low to mid 20s across all of north Florida and all of Central Florida, including the Orlando area and the I-4 corridor. Low temperatures across South Florida on Sunday morning and Monday morning will be in the low to middle 30s and this does include Miami. These temperatures would likely smash record low temperatures across the entire state on both Sunday morning and Monday.

The cold on Sunday and Monday is very likely to be a destructive and costly freeze for crop growers across all of Florida. Those of you who grow crops need to start your freeze preparations now.

To add insult to injury, wind chill temperatures will be in the single numbers across the Florida Panhandle and north Florida, the teens across Central Florida and the 20s across South Florida during Sunday and Monday.

This is the real deal & those of you across Florida are going to need to protect pipes, plants, pets and people from the very cold temperatures.

Finally, there continues to be the possibility of Gulf effect snow flurries and snow showers to occur late Saturday night into Sunday morning across the area along the I-4 corridor from Tampa to Orlando. A plume of low-level moisture may push eastward off of the Gulf during late Saturday night and Sunday morning leading to the possibility of snow flurries and snow showers that might actually deposit a light dusting of snow in some areas.