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Tropical Storm Melissa: The tropical disturbance that was once Invest 98-L has become organized enough today to be considered a tropical storm. Because of this, the National Hurricane Center has upgraded Invest 98-L to Tropical Storm Melissa.

Melissa has an organized deep convection and a well-defined low-level center with 50 mph maximum winds and central barometric pressure of 1003 millibars. Currently, Melissa is headed on a westerly course at a fairly quick pace. It is likely that Melissa will slow way down in forward speed and should put the brakes on as it reaches the area to the southeast of Jamaica in the next day or two.

There are all sorts of possibilities when it comes to where Melissa might end up tracking and how strong it might become. The reason for this is because the storm is expected to get caught in a weak steering environment & may await to be picked up the next weather system. The question becomes which weather system might pick Melissa up and send it northward out of the Caribbean.

The first opportunity for Melissa to be picked up comes on Thursday and Friday when an upper level trough of low pressure will pass to the north of the storm. This is the weather system that the GFS model has been insisting that Melissa will be picked up by. I do think that the GFS model is very wrong in its forecast as it forecasts Melissa to strengthen significantly over the next couple leading it to be picked up by this upper level trough. Instead, I think that we’ll probably see Melissa slowly strengthen & because of this, I do think that the upper level trough will miss Melissa & leave it milling around in the central Caribbean for at least the next 7 days. This means that I think that we will be tracking Melissa for at least the next 7-10 days!!

My Thoughts Are That I think that its going to take a rather strong upper level trough to pull Melissa northward out of the Caribbean & this may not occur until later next week. Because of this, the ceiling is very high for Melissa to strengthen significantly & potentially become a pretty strong hurricane in the northwestern Caribbean towards later this weekend & during next week.

This means that there may be quite a bit in the way of impacts for the islands of the central and northwestern Caribbean from Melissa, both in terms of heavy rainfall & also in the way of winds, depending on the track. This includes Jamaica, Haiti, Cuba and the Cayman Islands. Eventually, the Bahamas may also be significantly impacted by Melissa towards the middle and later parts of next week.

Another item of concern down the road is that the longer Melissa hangs around the western Caribbean, the bigger the impact it could have on the weather in the western North Atlantic & along parts of the East Coast of the United States. The reason for this is due to the fact that a rather strong upper level trough is expected to push through the Eastern United States near Halloween. It’s possible that Melissa could get entangled in this upper level trough leading to the potential for a significant storm near the Eastern Seaboard that brings heavy rain & strong winds around Halloween. It’s something to definitely watch.

Bottom Line Is That for those of you in the central and western Caribbean, this is going to be a marathon & not a sprint when tracking Melissa as it is likely to hang around for quite a while.

Model Track Forecast:

Satellite Imagery:

The next tropical weather discussion will be issued on Wednesday.

Invest 98-L Located Over The Eastern Caribbean: Invest 98-L is a robust tropical disturbance today & is producing a concentrated area of convection across the eastern Caribbean. While Invest 98-L is robust, it is also not yet organized as any sort of a center is located on the western edge of the deep convection. Also, Invest 98-L is being affected by westerly wind shear of up to 40 knots & these strong wind shear values will certainly cause it to not develop very quickly over the next day or two.

How quickly Invest 98-L organizes, develops and strengthens is going to be important in determining where it will ultimately go. If this system organizes and strengthens quickly over the next few days, it would probably turn towards Hispaniola more quickly and not get into the western Caribbean at all. On the other hand, slower organization over the next few days could mean it will push into the western Caribbean and take its time in turning to the north and northeast.

All-in-all, I do think that we’ll probably see Invest 98-L organize over the next couple of days, especially once it reaches the central Caribbean & slows down in forward speed. Because of this, I do think that we will likely see Invest 98-L become Tropical Storm Melissa by Wednesday or so.

Where this systems goes and how strong it becomes after it reaches the central Caribbean is still uncertain. The reason why is because Invest 98-L is expected to get caught up in an environment of conflicting steering currents.

There seems to be two potential track scenarios with Invest 98-L depending on how much it develops and strengthens.

The first track scenario is for Invest 98-L/Melissa to wait to strengthen & because of this move westward this week & reach the western Caribbean by this weekend where it then strengthens significantly. In this first scenario, Invest 98-L/Melissa then sits in the western Caribbean throughout this weekend through the first half of next week & become a major hurricane before it is yanked northeastward across Cuba and the Bahamas late next week. This is what model guidance such as the European model and the Canadian model seems to be suggesting. Also there has been a shift towards this scenario by the most recent run of the Google Deep Mind AI ensemble guidance.

The second track scenario is for Invest 98-L to strengthen significantly in the next day or two which leads to a quick turn to the north and northeast over the central Caribbean. This leads to this system to move right over Hispaniola late this week and then stall just north of Hispaniola near the southeastern Bahamas before its yanked out into the open Atlantic next week. The GFS model has been very consistent in forecasting this particular scenario.

Here Are My Thoughts: As I mentioned earlier in this discussion, I do think that it is very likely that Invest 98-L will organize and strengthen and become Tropical Storm Melissa by Wednesday when it reaches the central Caribbean.

While I think that a slower organizing and strengthening system that does move into the western Caribbean late this week and this weekend is definitely very much on the table, I do think that we’ll more likely see steady organizing and strengthening. Because of this, I do think that Invest 98-L/Melissa will eventually be pulled northward towards central and eastern Cuba and Haiti late this weekend or early next week & then towards the Bahamas next week.

I think that the quick turn to the north may end up being incorrect & I also think that the slower meandering system in the western Caribbean may also be incorrect. Because of this, I think that we’ll see an outcome that’s somewhere in the middle of the two scenarios I outlined earlier in this discussion.

That being said, all options are still on table in terms of where this system will track. I just think the quick exit over Hispaniola is the most incorrect one & I’m leaning much more towards the idea of a system that heads for the west-central Caribbean or even the western Caribbean.

Without a doubt, Invest 98-L/Melissa is a definite concern for everyone in the central and western Caribbean, including Honduras, Nicaragua, the Cayman Islands, Cuba, Jamaica, Haiti and the Dominican Republic. Because of this, if you live in the Caribbean or are traveling there, you really should keep a very close eye on the progress of Invest 98-L/Melissa throughout the coming days.

Model Track Forecast:

Satellite Imagery:

The next tropical weather discussion will be issued on Tuesday.

I continue to track a robust tropical wave that’s located over the Tropical Atlantic about 800 miles or so to the east of the Windward Islands or near 49 West Longitude. This wave is producing a large area of convection that stretches from about 47 West Longitude westward to near the Windward Islands.

I do still think that it’s very possible that this wave will develop into our next named tropical storm once it’s in the Caribbean during next week. This wave looks to enter the Caribbean by Sunday night into Monday.

Analysis of the environmental conditions reveals that the wind shear values around this wave are currently unfavorable for development. It should be noted though that the wind shear values in the Caribbean are very favorable for development & because of this, I do think that this system may very well develop once it’s in the Caribbean.

One thing that this tropical wave will do is bring squally weather, including heavy rain & gusty winds, to the Windward Islands starting as soon as this afternoon and continuing through Sunday and Monday.

There is very high amounts of uncertainty as to where this system might go and how strong it becomes once it’s in the Caribbean. Unfortunately, the model guidance is of little use in trying to figure this out as they all disagree with each other.

The GFS ensemble model guidance members are clustered in two scenarios. One cluster shows development occurring over the central Caribbean just south of Hispaniola during the middle and later parts of next week with a track that takes this system north and then northeastward across eastern Cuba, Hispaniola and the southeastern Bahamas. The second cluster of ensemble members show development occurring in the southwestern Caribbean instead with a scenario that keeps anything that forms there stuck in the western Caribbean for many days.

A look at the European ensemble model guidance shows that most of its members showing any development to occur in the southwestern Caribbean during the second half of next week. Most of the members that show development point to a scenario where this system crawls to the northwest near the coast of Nicaragua and Honduras by next weekend.

The most recent run of the Google Deep Mind AI model is a hot mess of possible track scenarios. While most members point to any development occurring in the central Caribbean later next week, they then diverge wildly on possible tracks. Some members show a quick exit to the northeast towards Hispaniola and Puerto Rico. Other members forecast a scenario of a track to the west-southwest towards Central America. Yet other members show a scenario where this system just sits and spins over the central Caribbean for many days.

My Thinking Is That while I do think that the development of a tropical storm and very possibly a hurricane will probably occur in the area around the central Caribbean during the second half of next week, I really have no idea of where it might go. This means that all options are on the table right now.

October tropical systems in the Caribbean can be extraordinarily difficult to forecast & in the past, we’ve seen everything from a nearly stalled system in the western Caribbean to a system that tracks from west to east across the Caribbean.

Because of this, if you live in the Caribbean or are traveling there, you really should keep a very close eye on the progress of this system. This includes those of you in the Virgin Islands, Puerto Rico, the Dominican Republic, Haiti, Cuba, the Cayman Islands, Jamaica, the Yucatan Peninsula, Belize & all of Central America.

The next tropical weather discussion will be issued on Monday.

A strong tropical wave is currently located over the central Tropical Atlantic near about 40 West Longitude. This tropical wave is definitely better organized than it was just 12 or 24 hours ago & because of this, I think it is quite likely that it will develop into a tropical system once it enters the Caribbean around Sunday night and Monday. Supporting the idea of likely development is the fact that the environmental conditions across the Caribbean look quite favorable throughout next week.

It should be noted that this strong tropical wave will bring squally weather, including heavy rain & gusty winds, to the Windward Islands during this weekend & particularly on Sunday. This squally weather then looks to persist into Monday across the Windward Islands.

The question then becomes will this system develop in the eastern Caribbean during the first half of next week or wait until it reaches the western Caribbean around late next week. Unfortunately, this is a big uncertainty as the model guidance do not agree on this.

Model guidance such as the Google Deep Mind AI model have trended much stronger with the development & intensity of this system. Because of this, they show a strong tropical system that is picked up by a strong upper level trough moving off of the East Coast of the United States. This turn from a westward heading to a north and northeast heading occurs between 70 West Longitude and 75 West Longitude in the Caribbean around the middle part of next week leading to this system to significantly impact Haiti, the Dominican Republic, Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands late next week. This same scenario has been forecast by the GFS model for several consecutive runs.

Other model guidance such as the European ensemble guidance show more delayed development leading to this system to make it into the western Caribbean later next week before it begins to really develop. Even with that, there are quite a few members that do show that sharp turn to the northeast next week putting areas including Cuba and the Bahamas at risk.

My Thinking Is That I think that a tropical storm and very probably a hurricane is going to be milling around in the Caribbean next week. The question then becomes which part of the Caribbean will be most threatened & to be honest, I don’t know yet.

My hunch though is that we’ll probably see the development occur in the eastern and central Caribbean during the early parts of next week rather than in the western Caribbean. The reason why I think this is because this tropical wave is currently much more organized than what was previously thought & because of this, it already has a head-start in the development process.

It goes without saying that this system needs to be watched very closely & if you live in the Caribbean or are traveling there, you need to monitor the progress of this system. This includes those of you in the Virgin Islands, Puerto Rico, the Dominican Republic, Haiti, Cuba, the Cayman Islands, Jamaica, the Yucatan Peninsula, Belize & all of Central America.

The next tropical weather discussion will be issued on Saturday.

Analysis today reveals that there is a pretty robust tropical wave that’s located over the eastern Tropical Atlantic near 25 West Longitude. Even though this wave looks pretty robust, water vapor satellite imagery shows that there is dry air located to the north of the wave. Additionally, there seems to be some unfavorable wind shear values waiting for this wave over the Tropical Atlantic, between about 45 West Longitude to about 60 West Longitude. Because of this, no tropical development of this wave is expected for at least the next several days as it heads westward.

This tropical wave is expected to reach the Windward Islands and the eastern Caribbean around late this weekend and early next week and then reach the central Caribbean towards Tuesday and Wednesday of next week.

The chances for this wave to develop are expected to increase quite a bit once it reaches the western Caribbean late next week. The reason for this is that the environmental conditions are expected to be favorable for development over the western Caribbean leading to this wave potentially developing as we get into late next week and next weekend.

While the signal for western Caribbean tropical development in the model guidance has increased a little since yesterday, it is far from certain as to whether tropical development will actually occur or if this will end up being a wave that just quietly heads westward across the Caribbean with no development at all. That being said, there is definitely a model signal for western Caribbean tropical development & very possibly significant tropical development late next week and next weekend & it is definitely something that’ll need to be watched closely.

In addition, the various model guidance members, including the GFS ensemble, the European ensemble & the Google Deep Mind AI ensemble models do disagree on where any tropical system that develops might go. Some guidance members show any system remaining in the western Caribbean and eventually heading for Central America, Belize and the Yucatan Peninsula. Other guidance members point to the possibility of a Eastern US upper level trough pulling this system northward out of the Caribbean and towards Cuba, the Bahamas & the East Coast of the United States.

The reason for the track difference in the ensemble members seems to have to do with the strength of the storm. The ensemble members that show this system headed westward towards Central America forecast a weak system. Meanwhile, the ensemble members that forecast this system becoming a strong tropical system show it being yanked northward out of the western Caribbean.

As I mentioned yesterday, it is way too soon to try to figure out which track and strength scenario might occur with this wave.

On one hand, the environmental conditions are forecast to be favorable and possibly very favorable for this wave to become a significant to very significant hurricane in the western Caribbean. Because of this, it would probably be influenced by that Eastern US trough and be pulled northward out of the Caribbean and towards Cuba, the Bahamas and the East Cost of the United States.

On the other hand, there’s an equal chance that this wave may end up staying weak & not take advantage of the favorable environmental conditions. Should this occur, it would miss that trough and head westward into Central America with no development at all.

I want to emphasize that while this tropical wave certainly needs to be watched very closely, there’s no telling yet of where it might ultimately go, should it go. There’s also no telling as to how strong it might get.

This means that you shouldn’t be overly concerned or worried about this wave, yet. I would, however, keep a close eye on this wave if you are in the western Caribbean as there is plenty of time to keep an eye on it.

The next tropical weather discussion will be issued on Friday.

A tropical wave located over the eastern Tropical Atlantic near about 25 West Longitude has the chance to develop into a tropical system once it reaches the western Caribbean sometime during the later parts of next week.

For the next several days, this tropical wave is expected to head westward & not develop at all. It should reach the eastern Caribbean around early next week and then reach the central Caribbean around the middle part of next week, all while probably not developing into a tropical system. The reason why tropical development looks unlikely from this wave for the next week or so is due to its fast forward speed, which will make it hard for the wave to develop any sort of low level circulation that’s able to line up with the convection & develop.

Once this wave reaches the central Caribbean around the middle part of next week, it is expected to slow down in forward speed. At the same time this is occurring, there are signs in the data that suggests the environmental conditions may be favorable for development in the central and western Caribbean. This means that this wave may try to develop into a tropical system once it moves in the western Caribbean during the later parts of next week.

The signal in the model guidance is mixed as some guidance do show development & possibly significant development. Other guidance, on the other hand, show little or no development.

The reason for the mixed signals in the guidance seems to have to with whether the wave is able to be tugged northward before it reaches the central Caribbean. Some guidance seems to keep this wave weak and headed due westward leading it to “crash” into northern parts of South America & then into Panama with no development at all. Other guidance show an upper level trough of low pressure over the Eastern US tugging this wave a little to the north, allowing it to miss South America & then develop into a significant tropical system in the western Caribbean late next week and next weekend.

To be completely honest with you, it’s way, way too soon to tell which scenario may play out.

On one hand, there’s a definite way for this wave to ultimately become a very concerning and significant tropical system in the western Caribbean should it get tugged northward by that Eastern US trough before slamming into South America and then Panama. In this scenario, we could see a tropical system strengthen significantly in the western Caribbean and become a formidable hurricane that is ultimately pulled north and northeastward towards Jamaica, the Cayman Islands, Cuba, the Bahamas & maybe even the East Coast of the United States.

On the other hand, there’s an equal chance that this wave may just miss that trough and head westward into northern South America and then into Central America with no development at all.

For now, this is just a wave that needs to be watched closely over the next week to ten days or so. At this point though, I wouldn’t be overly worried or concerned about it if you are in the western Caribbean as there is a ton of time to keep close tabs on it.

The next tropical weather discussion will be issued on Wednesday.

Latest On The Strong Coastal Storm On The East Coast: An area of low pressure is currently located very near the coast of southeastern North Carolina as of the time of this writing. Weather observations as of late this morning show this storm is producing wind gusts of up to 35-45 mph all along the coast from the North Carolina Outer Banks northward to Long Island. These winds are expected to increase even further this afternoon reaching their peak from late today through tonight and into Monday with gusts of up to 50-60 mph likely.

Additionally, this storm is still expected to bring other very significant impacts to areas from the North Carolina Outer Banks and the Tidewater of Virginia northward through the coastal parts of the Delmarva, coastal New Jersey, Long Island and Southern New England. These include several high tide cycles of moderate to major coastal flooding, waves of 15 to 20 feet, beach erosion and 1 to 3 inches of rainfall. The worst of these impacts are expected to occur throughout this afternoon, tonight and Monday.

The coastal flooding continues to look to the big threat from this storm:

For The North Carolina Outer Banks & Coastal Virginia: Moderate to major coastal flooding is expected during the high tide cycles of today and tonight. Areas from the northern parts of the Outer Banks through southeastern and eastern Virginia are very likely to see major coastal flooding during today’s midday high tide cycle and tonight’s midnight high tide cycle.

For The Delmarva Coastline & Coastal New Jersey: Major coastal flooding is fully expected during multiple high tide cycles along the Jersey shore through the Delmarva. This means that you should expect major coastal flooding during today’s midday high tide cycle, tonight’s midnight high tide cycle and Monday’s midday high tide cycle. The coastal flooding along the Jersey Shore and the Delmarva is going to be very, very bad & those of you in these areas should be ready for some of the worst flooding since Hurricane Sandy and the January, 2016 Nor’Easter.

For Long Island & Southern New England: Minor coastal flooding looks likely for the beaches of Southern New England and moderate coastal flooding can be expected across Long Island during the high tide cycles of today, tonight and Monday.

By far, the most severe coastal flooding is expected to occur in the area from coastal New Jersey southward through the Delmarva.

The winds with this coastal storm are likely to be quite strong. Wind gusts of 50-60 mph are likely from the North Carolina Outer Banks and the Virginia coastline northward through the Delmarva, the New Jersey coastline and into Long Island and coastal Southern New England. The strongest of these winds look to occur beginning later today and last through tonight and Monday.

In addition to the coastal flooding and strong winds, very rough surf can be expected through Tuesday. This will lead to significant beach erosion all along the coast from the North Carolina Outer Banks northward through the Delmarva, the Jersey Shore, Long Island & Southern New England.

Rainfall totals with this coastal storm look to average between 1 and 3 inches from the Delmarva northward into Southern New England. While this rainfall is not expected to be overly excessive, it could still produce some areas of flooding.

The Bottom Line Is That this is going to be one of the worst nor’easters for the Mid-Atlantic coastline through the Jersey Shore & Long Island in over a decade. Expect major issues and damage along this part of the East Coast. Please take this storm very seriously.

The next tropical weather discussion will be issued on Tuesday.

Latest On The Strong Coastal Storm On The East Coast: The latest weather analysis today shows that low pressure is located just offshore of the coasts of Georgia and South Carolina. It continues to look very likely that this storm system will bring very significant impacts to areas from Coastal North Carolina northward to Long Island and Southern New England, especially on Sunday & Monday.

What sort of significant impacts are we talking about from the North Carolina Outer Banks and the Tidewater of Virginia northward through the coastal parts of the Delmarva, coastal New Jersey, Long Island and Southern New England? Several high tide cycles of moderate to major coastal flooding, waves of 15 to 20 feet, beach erosion, wind gusts of 50-60 mph and 1 to 3 inches of rainfall. The worst of these impacts are expected to occur on Sunday, Sunday night and Monday.

First and foremost, the coastal flood threat will be the big story with this storm –

For The North Carolina Outer Banks & Coastal Virginia: Moderate to possibly major coastal flooding is expected during the high tide cycles on Sunday. Areas from the northern parts of the Outer Banks through southeastern and eastern Virginia are very likely to see major coastal flooding during the midday Sunday high tide cycle.

For The Delmarva Coastline & Coastal New Jersey: Major coastal flooding is fully expected during multiple high tide cycles along the Jersey shore through the Delmarva. This means that you should expect major coastal flooding during the midday Sunday high tide cycle. A second and third round of major coastal flooding is then expected during Sunday night’s high tide cycle and during midday Monday’s high tide cycle. The coastal flooding along the Jersey Shore and the Delmarva is going to be very, very bad & those of you in these areas should be ready for some of the worst flooding since Hurricane Sandy and the January, 2016 Nor’Easter.

For Long Island & Southern New England: Since it appears that the strongest gradient with this storm system should stay just south of Southern New England, it appears that generally minor coastal flooding can be expected during the high tide cycles on Sunday, Sunday night and Monday.

Once again, the most severe coastal flooding is expected to occur in the area from coastal New Jersey southward through the Delmarva.

The winds with this coastal storm are likely to be quite strong. Wind gusts of 50-60 mph are likely from the North Carolina Outer Banks and the Virginia coastline northward through the Delmarva, the New Jersey coastline and into Long Island and coastal Southern New England. The strongest of these winds look to occur during Sunday, Sunday night and Monday.

In addition to the coastal flooding and strong winds, very rough surf can be expected that lasts for upwards of 48 hours (starting tonight & Sunday & lasting until Tuesday). This will lead to significant beach erosion all along the coast from the North Carolina Outer Banks northward through the Delmarva, the Jersey Shore, Long Island & Southern New England.

Rainfall totals with this coastal storm look to average between 1 and 3 inches from eastern North Carolina northward through the Mid-Atlantic States into Southern New England. While this rainfall is not expected to be overly excessive, it could still produce some areas of flooding.

The Bottom Line Is That this is going to be one of the worst nor’easters for the Mid-Atlantic coastline through the Jersey Shore & Long Island in over a decade. Expect significant to major issues and damage along this part of the East Coast. Please take this storm very seriously.

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Tropical Development Possible Between The Lesser Antilles & The Coast Of Africa Later Next Week & Next Weekend: I think that we will probably have one more decent shot at tropical development in the tropical Atlantic around late next week before things begin to shut down.

An upward motion pulse of the Madden Julian Oscillation seems to be now pushing into the Atlantic Basin & will help to energize a couple of tropical waves over the next week to 10 days.

One tropical wave that is now located over the eastern Tropical Atlantic is very likely to curve to the north quickly & probably will become our next tropical storm as it does so. This first tropical wave, which the National Hurricane Center has highlighted in their latest outlook will be of no threat to anyone & should curve safely out into the open Atlantic.

A second tropical wave, which looks to be currently located over western Africa is expected to push off of the coast of Africa & enter the far eastern tropical Atlantic over the next couple of days. All indications are pointing towards this particular wave becoming a “low-rider” & perhaps developing into a tropical storm near the southern Leeward Islands and the Windward Islands as we get into next weekend.

There is then the possibility that this particular wave could move into the Caribbean during the week of October 20 & if this occurs, it could be a system to watch very, very closely. The ocean waters of the Caribbean are extremely warm & are virtually untouched by tropical systems so far this season. Because of this, any tropical system moving through the Caribbean could become a big, big problem if it is able to get going.

For now though, this is just a tropical wave to keep an eye on, especially once it “splashes down” in the eastern tropical Atlantic in a couple of days from now.

The next tropical weather discussion will be issued on Sunday.

Very Significant East Coast Storm Expected This Weekend Into Early Next Week: Weather analysis today reveals that a low pressure system is forming offshore of Florida’s East Coast. This storm system is fully expected to bring very significant impacts to areas from Coastal North Carolina northward to Long Island and Southern New England this weekend into early next week.

It is expected that this storm system will lift northward over the next couple of days reaching the North Carolina Outer Banks on Sunday and then reaching the Jersey Shore on Monday. It is then anticipated that this storm system will stall briefly near the Jersey Shore before turning to the east and southeast and heading out away from land on Tuesday.

Significant impacts are expected from the North Carolina Outer Banks and the Tidewater of Virginia northward through the coastal parts of the Delmarva, coastal New Jersey, Long Island and Southern New England. What sort of impacts are we expecting? Several high tide cycles of moderate to major coastal flooding, waves of 15 to 20 feet, beach erosion, wind gusts of 50-60 mph and 1 to 3 inches of rainfall. The worst of these impacts are expected to occur on Sunday, Sunday night and Monday.

Looking first and foremost at the coastal flood threat –

For The North Carolina Outer Banks & Coastal Virginia: Moderate to possibly major coastal flooding is expected on Saturday night and Sunday. The high tide forecast for midday Sunday in Norfolk is expected to reach 6 feet, which is considered major coastal flooding. Also, the high tide forecast on the northern part of the North Carolina Outer Banks is also expected to reach 6 feet around midday Sunday, which is considered moderate coastal flooding.

For The Delmarva Coastline & Coastal New Jersey: Some of the highest high tides since Hurricane Sandy and the January, 2016 Nor’Easter are expected during the day on Sunday. This means that major coastal flooding can be expected during Sunday’s high tide cycle all along the Jersey Shore into the Delmarva.

Atlantic City is expected to reach 8.2 feet during Sunday morning’s high tide cycle, which would be the highest since Hurricane Sandy.

The back bays in Jersey are likely to see the highest tides since the January, 2016 Nor’Easter. For Cape May, a high tide of 8.8 feet is expected, which would only be the second highest high tide on record with the first being 9.4 feet recorded during the January, 2016 Nor’Easter.

For Long Island & Southern New England: Since it appears that the strongest gradient with this storm system should stay just south of Southern New England, it appears that minor to moderate coastal flooding can be expected during the high tide cycles on Sunday and Monday.

By far though, the most severe coastal flooding impacts are likely to occur in the area from southern New Jersey into the Delmarva.

The winds with this coastal storm are likely to be quite strong. Wind gusts of 50-60 mph are likely from the North Carolina Outer Banks and the Virginia coastline northward through the Delmarva, the New Jersey coastline and into Long Island and coastal Southern New England. The strongest of these winds look to occur during Sunday, Sunday night and Monday.

In addition to the coastal flooding and strong winds, very rough surf can be expected that lasts for upwards of 48 hours. This will lead to significant beach erosion all along the coast from the North Carolina Outer Banks northward through the Delmarva, the Jersey Shore, Long Island & Southern New England.

Rainfall totals with this coastal storm look to average between 1 and 3 inches from eastern North Carolina northward through the Mid-Atlantic States into Southern New England. While this rainfall is not expected to be overly excessive, it could still produce some areas of flooding.

The Bottom Line Is That even though this storm system probably will remain non-tropical and not be considered a sub-tropical storm or a tropical storm, it will still bring some very significant coastal impacts, especially in the Delmarva and along the Jersey Shore. Because of this, please take this storm very seriously.

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Tropical Storm Jerry: Jerry continues to be a disorganized mess as it now pulls away from the Leeward Islands. Even though Jerry is now moving away from the Leeward Islands, the “tail” behind Jerry will likely produce additional heavy rainfall across the Leeward Islands over the next couple of days. This additional heavy rainfall will produce some localized flooding.

Additionally, Jerry is still expected to stay far enough to the east of Bermuda to not be any sort of a threat to the island.

The next tropical weather discussion will be issued on Saturday.

A Strong Coastal Storm Is Expected This Weekend From Coastal North Carolina To Southern New England: A strong cold front is currently pushing through the Southeastern United States & likely will make it as far south as the Florida Peninsula over the next day or two. This front will set up a strong temperature gradient along it and help to develop a low pressure that forms offshore of Florida’s East Coast by late Friday.

As we get into Saturday, it is expected that the coastal storm system will be located just offshore of the South Carolina and North Carolina coasts. This low pressure system will create gusty winds and heavy rain across eastern North Carolina and northeastern South Carolina during the day on Saturday.

Turning to Saturday night and Sunday, strong onshore winds with gusts of 50-60 mph can be expected along the North Carolina Outer Banks and across the Tidewater of Virginia. Moderate to major coastal flooding is likely at the time of high tide along the North Carolina Outer Banks and across the Tidewater of Virginia during Saturday night and Sunday. Additionally, major coastal flooding is also very possible across the lower Chesapeake Bay on Saturday night and Sunday.

Additionally, during the day on Sunday, that low pressure system is likely to strengthen even more as it tracks northward reaching coastal parts of Virginia . This will lead to heavy rain, wind gusts of up to 60 mph, moderate to major coastal flooding, beach erosion and very high surf to occur from the Outer Banks of North Carolina and points north, including the Tidewater of Virginia, Chesapeake Bay, the Jersey Shore, Long Island and Southern New England.

Significant impacts from this storm are likely to last through Monday into Tuesday from the Jersey Shore and Long Island through Southern New England before the low pressure system weakens and heads out into the open Atlantic.

It should be noted that this storm system will start its life as a non-tropical storm on Friday and Saturday. It’s possible though that this storm system could acquire some characteristics of a hybrid sub-tropical type storm as we get into Sunday and Monday. If this occurs and we do see a sub-tropical storm form from this system, it would get a name (Karen). Whether this storm becomes a sub-tropical storm or remains a non-tropical storm, its impacts from the North Carolina coastline to Southern New England will be the same.

Bottom Line Is That this is expected to be a long-duration coastal storm & because of this, there will be significant coastal impacts in the way of coastal flooding over multiple high tide cycles from the North Carolina Outer Banks to Southern New England. Additionally, heavy rainfall with amounts of 2 to 4 inches and strong onshore winds with gusts of 50-plus mph can be expected along the coast from the North Carolina coast to Southern New England can be expected.

Everyone from eastern North Carolina through the Mid-Atlantic states to Southern New England need to keep very close tabs on this storm and be ready for a long-duration storm that lasts 2 to 3 days or so.

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Tropical Storm Jerry: Jerry is still a lopsided and rough looking tropical storm today. Most of the strong winds and deep convection are found on the eastern side of the storm. Still though, reconnaissance aircraft have found that Jerry has winds of up to 65 mph.

It now looks like that Jerry will head a little closer to parts of the Leeward Islands as compared to what was forecast just yesterday. Because of this, the islands of Antigua and Barbuda are very likely to see tropical storm conditions starting later this afternoon and continuing through tonight. Those of you on the islands of Antigua and Barbuda should be ready for tropical storm conditions.

Elsewhere across the Leeward Islands, Jerry should pass just barely far enough east to miss the rest of the Leeward Islands with tropical storm force winds. That said, any further west shifts in the track of Jerry would put tropical storm force winds over St. Martin and Anguilla during tonight into Friday morning. My advice for those of you on the islands of St. Martin and Anguilla is to prepare for tropical storm force winds, just in case.

Additionally, a tail of moisture on the backside of Jerry is also expected to impact all of the Leeward Islands and the Virgin Islands leading to squally weather to occur from tomorrow through Saturday. Some of this moisture may also reach as far west as Puerto Rico later Friday into Saturday. Any persistent squally rain bands on the back side of Jerry could lead to localized flooding across the Leeward Islands and Virgin Islands as rain totals of 2 to 5 inches can be expected.

Finally, Jerry does not pose a threat to Bermuda as the storm is expected to turn to the north and northeast well east of the island.

The next tropical weather discussion will be issued on Friday.