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While significant severe weather is not expected this week, it seems probable that, at least, some severe weather will occur across the Mississippi Valley, the Great Lakes & the central and southern Plains states.

Some Severe Weather Is Expected Across The Middle & Upper Mississippi Valley Tonight: A few severe thunderstorms are expected to first develop across central Iowa between about 5 and 7 pm CDT. These storms are expected to push east-northeastward during tonight into eastern Iowa, northern Illinois and southern Wisconsin.

Any severe storms tonight may have the potential to produce large hail and some very gusty winds.

During Tuesday – Some Severe Weather Is Expected Across The Great Lakes: Scattered strong to severe storms are expected during the day on Tuesday across the Great Lakes, including northern Indiana, southern Lower Michigan, northern Ohio, northwestern Pennsylvania and western New York State.

The main threat with any severe storms look to be damaging wind gusts and hail. That said, if there are any individual supercells that might be able to develop, it could lead to a tornado threat, mainly during late Tuesday afternoon and Tuesday evening.

Wednesday Afternoon & Wednesday Evening – Some Severe Weather Is Possible Across The Central & Southern Plains States: Some severe weather is a possibility across the central and southern Plains from about central and eastern Kansas southward through central and eastern Oklahoma into northern Texas.

Strong to severe thunderstorms may develop by late Wednesday afternoon across north Texas and central Oklahoma. These storms will push northeastward during Wednesday evening into eastern Kansas and eastern Oklahoma.

The main threat with any severe storms late Wednesday afternoon and Wednesday evening looks to be damaging wind gusts.

Thursday – Ohio Valley: It appears that some severe weather is a possibility Thursday afternoon into Thursday night across the Ohio Valley as a cold front pushes eastward into the area. Any severe storms may have the potential to produce some very gusty winds.

Friday – The Central & Southern Plains States: An area of low pressure is expected to form over far eastern Colorado and western Kansas during the day on Friday. To the east of this low pressure system, a surge of humid air will push northward across the southern and central Plains states.

Strong to severe thunderstorms may form across northern Oklahoma and central and eastern Kansas during Friday afternoon. This will be something to closely watch as there are strong signals in the data that suggest some substantial severe weather may occur Friday afternoon across northern Oklahoma and eastern Kansas with tornadoes, very large hail and damaging winds a possibility.

Saturday – The Ohio Valley: An area of low pressure is expected to strengthen as it pushes into the Great Lakes region during Saturday. This will lead to plenty of moisture pushing northward into the Ohio Valley by Saturday afternoon.

Thunderstorms, some strong to severe, may affect much of the Ohio Valley with damaging winds the main threat.

FINALLY – I am writing to see if you may be able to help us out & I want to explain why.

We have had what we’ve called a “perfect financial storm” over the past year or so that has drained all of our savings and other money avenues.

This includes, but is not limited to the following:

– Having to take on an unexpected car payment after a serious car accident last July, which totaled our paid off vehicle.

– Being dropped by our home insurance company because they deemed the breeds of dogs we have as uninsurable, even though we were completely upfront with them about the dogs we have when bought the house. In fact, we still have the same dogs as we did when we purchased the house. Because of this, we had to get brand x state insurance & have had to jump through hoops to keep it.

– My wife being injured in that aforementioned car accident to the point where she can barely walk at times & she hurts all of the time (both knees injured & shoulder injured). This has required me to care for her almost constantly.

– Me developing a hernia over the past several months, which will probably require surgery soon.

– Me injuring the tendons in my hand in a slip & fall accident in January.

– One of our pups tearing a tendon open back at the New Year leading to a $1100 emergency vet bill.

– Medically, with all of the stress of what’s gone on over the past year – I have developed almost constant tachycardia, which I will be seeing my doctor about tomorrow, actually.

– The property taxes on our home have almost doubled since we bought the house in November of 2021. This had led to a very notable increase in the monthly mortgage payment. We have thought about & seriously considered selling the house & buying a home in a town with much lower taxes. The problem with that is that the interest rate on homes is nearly double of what they were when we bought our home & because of this, our mortgage would probably be about the same, even with lower taxes. No win situation here.

It takes A LOT for me to ask for help & I probably should have fully explained what’s going on before. Reason for this is that I oftentimes feel too proud and I let things get too bad before I ask for help. I also have an issue with internalizing the stress & feel like I can “figure things out”, which has probably led to the tachycardia issues I’ve developed.

Anyways, I wanted to explain things much more, so that you fully understand our situation & know that this account has not been hacked.

Here’s How To Help Us Out:

To help us out using your credit card or debit card, please go to the following link –https://buy.stripe.com/8x2fZiaU4f4UcgO3Uxfw40c .

To help us out using PayPal, please go to the following link – https://www.paypal.com/paypalme/crownweather .

To help us out using Venmo, please go to the following link – https://account.venmo.com/u/crownweather (if Venmo asks you to verify payment, the last 4 digits of my phone number is 0009).

Finally, THANK YOU SO MUCH IN ADVANCE for any support you can send. It is appreciated more than you will ever know.

Summary: All indications seem to be pointing towards that this hurricane season may be below average in terms of the number of storms that occur. It appears that a moderate El Nino will develop by this summer & then possibly trend towards a strong El Nino by this autumn. Should this occur, it would lead to the atmospheric state to be unfavorable for tropical storms and hurricanes to form in the deep tropical Atlantic and the Caribbean. This means that any tropical storms or hurricanes that do form would probably do so in the Atlantic north of 20 North Latitude, as well as in the Gulf.

The Numbers: 11 Named Storms, 5 of those storms becoming Hurricanes and 2 of those hurricanes becoming Major Hurricanes (Category 3 or higher on the Saffir-Simpson scale).

Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE) Index Forecast: I am forecasting an ACE index this year of 80, which signals that this will probably be a below average season.

ENSO Conditions: All data is pointing towards a moderate El Nino developing during this summer. It then appears that the El Nino may intensify into a strong El Nino by this autumn.

The prospects of a El Nino occurring during this summer and autumn will be a negative effect on tropical activity during the hurricane season. This means that below average activity looks fairly probable during this hurricane season in terms of the number of tropical storms and hurricanes.

Sea Surface Temperatures: Ocean water temperatures across much of the tropical Atlantic are currently below average. These below average temperatures are also found across a large part of the eastern and central Caribbean. Above average ocean water temperatures are occurring across much of the North Atlantic north of 20 North Latitude. Above average ocean temperatures are also found across much of the Gulf.

The latest model guidance seems to be pointing towards a scenario where areas of the Atlantic north of 20 North Latitude are warmer than average as compared to the deep tropics throughout this hurricane season. This could set up a scenario where a majority of the deep tropical Atlantic and the Caribbean are void of tropical activity & that most of the activity occurs north of 20 North Latitude.

Analog Years: These are the analog years that seem to be a close match right now to what the 2026 hurricane season may be like. They are 1951, 1954, 1972, 1985, 1991, 1994, 1997, 2009 & 2015.

Most Of The Activity This Season May Occur During May, June & July: Given the expectation of the strengthening El Nino conditions, I think that it’s quite possible that we could see a fast starting hurricane season that ends up becoming almost non-existent during the peak months of the hurricane season.

This means that I think that busier than average activity in terms of tropical development may be in the offing during May, June and July & that a majority of the storms that do form will do so during these 3 months. I then think that the peak months of August and September could be much quieter than average in terms of tropical development.

Areas Of Concern This Season: The combination of the strengthening El Nino conditions, lower than average wind shear values north of 20 North Latitude & warmer than average ocean water temperatures north of 20 North Latitude makes me think that any tropical storms or hurricanes will either curve towards the Bahamas, the East Coast of the United States & Atlantic Canada or be directed north and northeastward near Bermuda and then out into the open Atlantic.

Another area that I have some concerns with in terms of possible impacts from any tropical storms or hurricanes will be along the US Gulf Coast, especially the central and eastern Gulf Coast from Louisiana to Florida. The reason I think this is because I could see a scenario where any westward tropical disturbances moving through the Caribbean will wait to develop until they reach the southern or central Gulf.

I think that the Caribbean & the deep tropical Atlantic will be very quiet as tropical disturbances struggle to develop due to unfavorable environmental conditions.

Finally, even though this looks like it could be a “quiet” hurricane season, it does not mean that there will not be any tropical storm or hurricane impacts. Because of this, always prepare the same way as you would for any other hurricane season.

2026 Atlantic Tropical Cyclone Names:
Arthur
Bertha
Cristobal
Dolly
Edouard
Fay
Gonzalo
Hanna
Isaias
Josephine
Kyle
Leah
Marco
Nana
Omar
Paulette
Rene
Sally
Teddy
Vicky
Wilfred

To Our Faithful & Loyal Crown Weather Members:
I am writing in hopes you might be able to help me out & send some sort of monetary support my way. We have ZERO money in our checking account and are having a tremendous amount of difficulty paying bills.

So, I am really, really hoping you can help us out using your credit card, or you can use PayPal or Venmo to not only support Crown Weather, but to also help us out during this temporary, but very difficult, scary & stressful situation.

Here’s How To Help Me Out:

To help us out using your credit card or debit card, please go to the following link https://buy.stripe.com/8x2fZiaU4f4UcgO3Uxfw40c .

To help us out using PayPal, please go to the following link – https://www.paypal.com/paypalme/crownweather .

To help us out using Venmo, please go to the following link – https://account.venmo.com/u/crownweather (if Venmo asks you to verify payment, the last 4 digits of my phone number is 0009).

Finally, THANK YOU SO MUCH IN ADVANCE for any support you can send. It is appreciated more than you will ever know.

Rob Lightbown
Crown Weather Services

Late Sunday Afternoon & Sunday Night: Widespread severe weather with the threat for widespread damaging winds and tornadoes are expected late Sunday afternoon and Sunday night across a large area from northeast Texas to southwest Lower Michigan. The area of most concern looks to be across northern Louisiana, much of Arkansas, central and northern Mississippi, northwest Alabama, western and middle Tennessee, southeast Missouri, western Kentucky, southern Illinois and southern Indiana.

For The Ohio Valley – A very favorable environment for severe weather looks to exist across much of the Ohio Valley on Sunday and Sunday night.

It is anticipated that a powerful squall line containing 65-80 mph wind gusts will move from eastern Missouri, southern Illinois, western Kentucky and western Tennessee late Sunday afternoon into Sunday evening to across southern Indiana, western Ohio, central Kentucky and middle Tennessee during the overnight hours of Sunday night. Additionally, some embedded supercells may be found in and just ahead of the squall line leading to the threat for a few tornadoes.

Louisiana Into Mississippi and Alabama – That squall line is likely to extend southwestward into Louisiana and eastern Texas during late Sunday afternoon. This squall line will push eastward into Mississippi and Alabama during the overnight hours of Sunday night.

The greatest instability and strongest shear which will help to foster widespread damaging winds and a few tornadoes looks to be found across central and northern Mississippi and northwestern Alabama between 9 pm CDT Sunday night and 6 am Monday morning.

Florida Panhandle & Coastal Alabama – Another area to watch will be along the Alabama coastline and across coastal parts of the Florida Panhandle during the predawn hours of Monday morning. It is possible that some supercell severe thunderstorms could push northward after about 3 am Monday morning into coastal Alabama and across the Florida Panhandle. If this occurs, then there could be a very real risk for a tornado threat across these areas just before sunrise Monday morning.

Monday: Significant severe weather with widespread damaging winds and a few tornadoes will be a threat on Monday from the Carolinas northward into the Mid-Atlantic states. It appears that there are going to be two areas to really watch:

The first area will be across the Carolinas into southeastern Virginia where supercell storms may pose a threat for tornadoes and damaging winds from mid and late afternoon Monday into the evening hours of Monday.

A second area to watch will be across northern Virginia, Maryland, Delaware and southern Pennsylvania where a powerful squall line could sweep through during the daytime hours of Monday. Widespread damaging winds of up to 75 mph in gusts and a few tornadoes will be a threat.

Before I get into discussing the potential for a major storm system across the central United States this weekend, I wanted to let you know that we are still not doing well at all.  We still have virtually no money in our checking account.  This continues to be extremely stressful and worrying for us. 
 
If there is any way you can send monetary support our way, it would be appreciated more than you will ever know.  If you are a business or corporation that would like to invest in us, please contact me immediately. 

To help us out using your credit card or debit card, please go to the following link https://buy.stripe.com/8x2fZiaU4f4UcgO3Uxfw40c .

To help us out using PayPal, please go to the following link – https://www.paypal.com/paypalme/crownweather .

To help us out using Venmo, please go to the following link – https://account.venmo.com/u/crownweather (if Venmo asks you to verify payment, the last 4 digits of my phone number is 0009).

On behalf of Crown Weather Services, I would like to extend my heartfelt thank you for all of your support. It is appreciated more than you will ever know.

Now, for the latest discussion on the expected major storm this weekend across the central United States:

A major storm system is expected to take shape over the central United States this weekend. This storm system has the potential to bring blizzard conditions to the upper Midwest & the potential for a severe weather outbreak for areas from the lower and middle Mississippi Valley into parts of the lower Ohio Valley.

Heavy snow with blizzard conditions look to occur across parts of Iowa, southeastern Minnesota, much of Wisconsin and the Upper Peninsula of Michigan. Snow totals of upwards of one foot or more can be expected & this will be accompanied by blizzard conditions.

To the south, this major storm system is expected to bring severe weather across the lower and middle Mississippi Valley into the lower Ohio Valley during Sunday afternoon and Sunday night. This includes northeast Texas, much of Arkansas, northern Louisiana, northern Mississippi, western Tennessee, western Kentucky and southern Missouri. Damaging winds and tornadoes will be a threat with any severe storms that occur.

The severe weather threat will push into the Mid-Atlantic states and the Carolinas during Monday. Damaging winds and some threat for tornadoes may accompany the severe weather during Monday.

Summary: Severe weather is expected throughout this afternoon into tonight across a large area from the ArkLaTex and the northern Gulf coast northward through the lower Mississippi Valley, the Ohio Valley and the Mid-Atlantic states.

Details: First for the Ohio Valley and the Mid-Atlantic states – Strong to severe thunderstorms are expected to continue throughout this afternoon across areas from eastern and southern Ohio and much of Pennsylvania southward through Kentucky, West Virginia, northern Virginia and Maryland. A few tornadoes and damaging winds will be a threat with these storms.

For Southeast Texas, Louisiana, Mississippi, Alabama & Tennessee – Thunderstorms are currently occurring east and southeastern Texas. These storms are expected to continue pushing eastward into Louisiana, Mississippi and Alabama during this afternoon and tonight.

The atmosphere out ahead of these storms is fairly unstable and strongly sheared. Because of this, a few tornadoes and damaging winds will be a threat with these storms as they push eastward during this afternoon and tonight.

Summary: Severe weather with the threat for strong to intense tornadoes are expected late this afternoon into this evening across northern and central Illinois, northern Indiana and southern Lower Michigan.

Details: A warm front is expected to be in place across northern Illinois, northern Indiana and lower Michigan throughout this afternoon. While this is occurring, an area of low pressure will track along this front & help to produce an environment that’s highly favorable for severe weather, including tornadoes.

Supercell severe thunderstorms are expected to develop across northern and central Illinois as early as 3-5 pm CDT this afternoon. A very unstable air mass & strong amounts of low-level wind shear will lead to a environment that’s favorable for very significant severe thunderstorms across northern and central Illinois, including very large hail and tornadoes.

By this evening, very strong low-level wind shear will increase the significant tornado threat across northern and central Illinois and northern Indiana throughout this evening.

March has started off quite active in the severe weather department with deadly tornadoes occurring yesterday in far southern Michigan & on Thursday evening in Oklahoma. Unfortunately, the weather pattern is likely to remain quite active in terms of severe weather.

For The Rest Of This Afternoon Into This Evening: Severe weather with damaging winds and a few tornadoes are expected throughout the rest of this afternoon into this evening across eastern and southern Ohio, northern West Virginia, western Pennsylvania and western New York State.

Another area of severe weather will be found across southern and eastern Texas, central and northern Louisiana, southern Arkansas, much of Mississippi, northwestern Alabama, western and middle Tennessee and western Kentucky. Damaging winds will be the main threat with any severe storms.

The severe weather should subside a bit during Sunday and Monday, but is expected to ramp up again by Tuesday and Wednesday.

Tuesday & Wednesday: An active severe weather pattern is expected during Tuesday and Wednesday from the southern Plains states into the middle and lower Mississippi Valley and the Ohio Valley.

During Tuesday, an area of low pressure is expected to emerge over the central and southern High Plains. To the east of this low pressure, strong southwesterly winds will pull warm, humid and unstable air northward into the central and southern Plains states into parts of the Mississippi Valley.

Severe storms will be a threat Tuesday afternoon and Tuesday evening across central and north Texas, central and eastern Oklahoma, eastern Kansas, northern Arkansas, much of Missouri, central and southern Illinois and western Indiana. Tornadoes, damaging winds and hail will all be a threat with any severe weather.

Turning to Wednesday, an intensifying low pressure will track from the Great Lakes into Ontario and Quebec. A cold front will stretch southwestward from this low pressure system and push into the Ohio Valley, the Tennessee Valley and parts of the Mississippi Valley.

Severe storms with damaging winds and a few tornadoes will be a threat Wednesday afternoon into Wednesday evening across northern Louisiana, southern Arkansas, central and northern Mississippi, western and middle Tennessee, much of Kentucky, southern Indiana, much of Ohio, western Pennsylvania and western New York State.

I just wanted to update you regarding Friday afternoon and Friday evening’s potential significant severe weather across eastern Oklahoma, eastern Kansas and western Missouri.

An area of low pressure is expected to track from western Kansas to the upper Great Lakes during Friday and Friday night. A dryline will extend southward from this low pressure system into the central and southern Plains states.

The area of most concern right now is across eastern Oklahoma, eastern Kansas and western Missouri where supercell severe thunderstorms may develop by late Friday afternoon and Friday evening. Tornadoes and large hail look to be the main threat.

It’s something to certainly keep an eye on if you are located anywhere across these areas.

Before I get into the severe weather threat during the second half of this week, I need a HUGE favor from you. I’m really hoping you might be able to send any sort of support over my way. It would be appreciated more than you will ever know.

We are now OVER DRAFTED & have ZERO money in our checking account. This is because of the tremendous difficulty we continue to have to pay bills.

So, I am really, really hoping you can help us out using your credit card or you can use PayPal or Venmo to support our work. If you are a business or corporation and would like to invest in us, it would be immensely appreciated.

To help us out using your credit card or debit card, please go to the following link https://buy.stripe.com/8x2fZiaU4f4UcgO3Uxfw40c .

To help us out using PayPal, please go to the following link – https://www.paypal.com/paypalme/crownweather .

To help us out using Venmo, please go to the following link – https://account.venmo.com/u/crownweather (if Venmo asks you to verify payment, the last 4 digits of my phone number is 0009).

On behalf of Crown Weather Services, I would like to extend my heartfelt thank you for all of your support. It is appreciated more than you will ever know.

Now, for the latest discussion on the increase in severe weather chances:

As I mentioned yesterday, the severe weather threat will be on the increase during the second half of this week. A majority of the severe weather from Wednesday and beyond will be centered across the southern and even central Plains states.

Wednesday – Some severe weather is expected during Wednesday afternoon and Wednesday evening across north-central and northeast Texas, southeast Oklahoma and western Arkansas. Hail and damaging winds will be the main threat.

Thursday – An upper level weather disturbance is expected to eject eastward from the southwestern United States during Thursday. Unstable air out ahead of this weather disturbance will lead to an environment that’s favorable for severe weather across the western parts of the southern Plains states.

Severe storms with a risk of damaging winds, hail and a couple of tornadoes are possible Thursday afternoon and Thursday evening across the Texas and Oklahoma Panhandles, northwest Texas, western Oklahoma and southwest Kansas.

Friday – Friday has the potential to be a significant severe day across the central and southern Plains states. A strong upper-level weather disturbance is expected to push northeastward into the central High Plains states during the day on Friday. Out ahead of this weather disturbance, the atmosphere will be humid and unstable across much of the central and southern Plains states.

This means that severe storms that could produce tornadoes, hail and damaging winds will be a threat across north Texas, much of central and eastern Oklahoma, western Arkansas, central and eastern Kansas, much of Missouri, eastern Nebraska and much of Iowa.

Friday’s severe weather risk does need to be watched closely as it could be quite significant.

This Weekend – On Saturday, a cold front is expected to push southward into the area from the southern Plains states through the middle Mississippi Valley and the Ohio Valley.

To the south of this cold front, some isolated severe weather looks possible during Saturday afternoon and Saturday evening from the Ark-La-Tex northeastward to the Ohio Valley.

On Sunday, a stationary frontal boundary will be in place from the southern Plains through the Ozarks to the southern Appalachians. Some very isolated severe weather is possible during Sunday afternoon to the south of this front from the lower Mississippi Valley through the Deep South.

Early Next Week: The severe weather risk may really ramp up again by Tuesday as a new upper level disturbance is expected to move into the southern Plains by then. If this occurs, then a new round of significant severe weather could occur during Tuesday afternoon and Tuesday evening across the southern and central Plains states. Something to definitely watch.