Rob Lightbown - Crown Weather Services

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Saturday, June 27, 2026 12:24 pm by Rob Lightbown

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There Remains A Very Low Chance Of Tropical Development Next Week From The US Southeast Coast Westward Into The Eastern Gulf

Friday, June 26, 2026 12:28 pm by Rob Lightbown

All will be quiet across the Atlantic, Caribbean and the Gulf this weekend with no tropical development expected.

As we get into next week, there remains a very low chance that we could see a tropical system try to develop near the US Southeast coast between the Carolinas and northeast Florida & then be pushed southwestward and westward into the eastern Gulf. That said, more than likely nothing at all will develop & all will stay quiet.

Some of the model guidance & in particular, the Google Deep Mind model is showing about a 20 percent chance or so of tropical development in the area from the Southeast coast to the eastern Gulf. In addition, the European ensemble seems to show about a 10-20 percent chance for tropical development during the first half of next week near the Carolina coastline. Other model guidance such as the Canadian model and the GFS model, however, show no development at all. As I already said, I think more than likely nothing will develop next week. That said, it is still something to keep an eye on, just in case.

What may cause this possible development? It appears that we will have a decaying frontal boundary draped over the southwestern North Atlantic just off of the Southeast US coast. Some of the model guidance are hinting that a large cluster of thunderstorms will dive off of the South Carolina coastline early next week and then try to root itself on the tail end of that decaying front. If this occurs, then this process could promote a low pressure system to form leading to the possibility of development as it heads southwestward and westward towards the Florida Peninsula and then the eastern Gulf.

Even though I think that the chances for tropical development are very low (around 10 percent), the environmental conditions look favorable to promote development. This includes the expectation of low wind shear values and very warm ocean waters to the east of Florida. Because of this, the idea of possible tropical development is something to keep an eye on for next week.

Whether we see tropical development or not next week, one thing that is very highly likely is a surge of tropical moisture will push westward into the Bahamas, through much of the Florida Peninsula and into the northern and eastern Gulf. What this means is that daily pop-up thunderstorms will move from east to west & affect the Bahamas, much of the Florida Peninsula and along the northern Gulf coast during next week. It also means that these daily thunderstorms will likely reach the drought riddled areas along the I-75 corridor and the west coast of Florida, including areas from Tampa to Fort Myers.

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Let your friends, family, coworkers, neighbors or anyone you know about Crown Weather & perhaps they will want to get in on this great deal too. If you’d like to take advantage of this lifetime subscription special now, let me know by emailing me.

Very Low Chance Of Tropical Development Next Week From The US Southeast Coast Westward Into The Eastern Gulf

Wednesday, June 24, 2026 12:48 pm by Rob Lightbown

The rest of this week through this weekend is expected to be quiet across the Atlantic, Caribbean and the Gulf with no tropical development expected.

As we get into next week, there is a very low chance that we could see a tropical system try to develop near the US Southeast coast & then be pushed westward into the eastern Gulf. That said, more than likely nothing at all will develop & all will stay quiet.

Some of the model guidance such as the GFS model and Google’s Deep Mind model is showing a piece of mid-level energy to push off of the southeast coast of the United States by early next week. This energy then gets left behind as a frontal system decays towards the middle part of next week. Once this occurs, it is anticipated that an upper level high pressure system over the eastern United States will help to push this piece of energy westward across the Florida Peninsula and into the eastern Gulf during the second half of next week within an environment that’s somewhat favorable for development.

It should be noted that the model guidance only show a slight chance of tropical development occurring with the European ensemble guidance only forecasting a 10-20 percent chance for tropical development.

For now, I think that the chances for tropical development near the US Southeast Coast and in the eastern Gulf are very low (probably near 10 percent). That being said, it will be something that I’ll be keeping an eye on, just in case.

FINALLY – I wanted to give everyone a heads-up that I will be running a Fourth Of July Lifetime Subscription Special that’ll begin on Saturday & run through July 4th. This lifetime subscription special will feature a price that is $250 off the regular price of a lifetime subscription. So, instead of paying $600, you can pay $350 for a lifetime subscription & never have to worry about renewing again.

All Is Quiet Across The Atlantic With No Tropical Development Expected This Week Through Probably At Least Next Week

Monday, June 22, 2026 2:20 pm by Rob Lightbown

All is now quiet across the Atlantic, Caribbean and the Gulf & no tropical development is expected throughout this week. In fact, tropical development looks unlikely right through next week, if not longer.

The Atlantic Basin is being heavily impacted by a large amount of Saharan dust. This, in combination with strengthening El Nino conditions will keep the Atlantic Basin shut down for at least the next couple of weeks, if not longer. Large Saharan dust outbreaks like this are common this time of year & usually peaks during late June and early July before the amount of dust begins to wane towards August.

Another factor that will prevent tropical development for the next 1 to 2 weeks will be strong amounts of wind shear that’ll be present across much of the Atlantic, Caribbean and the Gulf.

Bottom Line Is That the Atlantic, Caribbean and the Gulf should be very quiet in terms of tropical development chances through the end of this month, at least. In fact, the longer range ensemble guidance seems to be pointing towards things remaining quiet through at least mid-July.