Crown Weather
Discussions

I wanted to update you on the slight possibility that we could see tropical development in either the Bay of Campeche or the southern Gulf either later this coming week or during next weekend.

It seems the system that we will need to watch for future tropical mischief is an area of disturbed weather that’s actually located over the eastern Pacific to the south of El Salvador and Guatemala. This disturbed weather is labeled Invest 92-E by the National Hurricane Center.

It seems that some of the model guidance, including the European model and the track model guidance want to pull the energy and moisture of Invest 92-E from the eastern Pacific across Central America and emerging into the Bay of Campeche by about Friday or Saturday. This is a change from what was expected just a couple of days ago & it’s a scenario that can lead to a tropical system in the Bay of Campeche and the southern Gulf. In fact, we most recently saw a tropical system crossover from the eastern Pacific into the Gulf back in 2020.

My latest take on this is that it’s possible that we could see a tropical system form in either the Bay of Campeche or the southern Gulf during the very end of this coming week or during next weekend. That being said, I still think that the chances of this occurring are very low (less than 20 percent). It can be quite a feat for a formed tropical system to cross from the eastern Pacific into the Bay of Campeche and then redevelop into a tropical system.

Now, if (and that is a big if) we do see tropical development in the Bay of Campeche or the southern Gulf late this coming week or next weekend, it’ll likely be quite weak. At this point, it’s just something to keep an eye on, just in case, and is nothing to be overly worried or concerned about.

FINALLY, we need your help in supporting us here at Crown Weather.

To support us, become a Crown Weather PLUS subscriber today!! The link to become a subscriber is https://crownweather.com/cws-plus/ . Your subscriptions and support keep us in business (which has been extremely tough to do lately)!!

If you’d rather support us & help us out, you can do that!! Here’s how –

To help us out using your credit card or debit card, please go to the following link – https://buy.stripe.com/8x2fZiaU4f4UcgO3Uxfw40c .

To help us out using PayPal, please go to the following link – https://paypal.com/paypalme/crownweather .

To help us out using Venmo, please go to the following link – https://account.venmo.com/u/crownweather (if Venmo asks you to verify payment, the last 4 digits of my phone number is 0009).

Unfortunately, we need your help again due to ongoing financial difficulties.

I had hoped that we’d see a large influx of new subscribers or renewals of subscriptions due to the start of the hurricane season, but that has not occurred as of yet.

Because of this, we have literally NO MONEY for groceries and our mortgage now needs to be paid. Any help you can send our way will be appreciated more than you will ever know!!

It takes A LOT for me to ask for help & I REALLY hate sending out these emails. Due to having no money, we did not eat at all yesterday & if we don’t come up with funds, we’re looking at another day of no food. Also, if you can, please share this email with anyone that has benefited from our weather updates here at Crown Weather Services & might be able to help.

Finally, if you have a company and would like to underwrite Crown Weather Services & fund our operations, let me know!!

Here’s How To Help Me Out:

To help us out using your credit card or debit card, please go to the following link –

https://buy.stripe.com/8x2fZiaU4f4UcgO3Uxfw40c.

To help us out using PayPal, please go to the following link –

https://www.paypal.com/paypalme/crownweather .

To help us out using Venmo, please go to the following link –

https://account.venmo.com/u/crownweather (if Venmo asks you to verify payment, the last 4 digits of my phone number is 0009).

I hope you can understand our situation & know that this account is not hacked. This is a real email being sent by me. I truly appreciate all of the help you’ve provided so far & hope you can still help us if you are able to.

A new tropical weather discussion on the possibility of tropical development in the western Caribbean or the southern & central Gulf will be sent out within the next couple of hours.

Today is the official start of the 2026 Atlantic Hurricane Season & fortunately, there is nothing out there that’s going to immediately develop.

Weather analysis today revealed that there is a low pressure system now located off of the South Carolina coast. The environmental conditions around this low pressure are highly unfavorable for tropical development. It is expected that this low pressure system will head out into the open Atlantic over the next few days.

There is also a frontal boundary that’s now pushing southward through the Mid-Atlantic states right now. It is expected that this frontal boundary will push through the southeastern United States as we get into Tuesday and Wednesday and may then get hung up in the area from the Florida Peninsula to just north of the Bahamas by the second half of this week. Low pressure systems are expected to form and track along this front from the eastern Gulf to the southwestern North Atlantic between Tuesday and Thursday. While tropical or sub-tropical development seems unlikely due to unfavorable environmental conditions, they will be watched, just in case.

Another area that I am going to be watching will be the central and western Gulf later this week where there is the possibility that a piece of energy will lift northward from the Yucatan Peninsula into the central and western Gulf by Wednesday and Thursday. This piece of energy will then head towards coastal parts of Louisiana or the upper Texas coast by about Friday.

It’s possible that this piece of atmospheric energy could lead to the development of a low pressure system, but at this point, I think the chances of anything tropical coming from it are extremely low.

What this piece of atmospheric energy will probably do is bring locally heavy rainfall to parts of the central and western Gulf Coast between Wednesday and Friday.

Looking beyond this week, it’s possible that the environmental conditions may become a little more favorable for tropical development in the Gulf and the southwestern North Atlantic by the middle part of this month. If this occurs, then it could open the door for the possibility of something to watch in terms of tropical development.

Right now, there aren’t any consistent model signals that point towards development around mid-month. That being said, there are some low key signals from the GFS ensemble and the European ensemble model guidance that point towards the Gulf and the southwestern North Atlantic might be a spot to keep an eye on, just in case.

FINALLY – Where today is the official start of the 2026 Atlantic Hurricane Season, I am asking everyone to strongly encourage everyone you know to become a Crown Weather PLUS subscriber. As you know, as a subscriber, it’s well worth the money for what you get. The link to pass along to everyone you know to subscribe is https://crownweather.com/cws-plus/ .

Additionally, I’m also humbly asking you to help us out if you are able to. You all know how rough the last couple of years have been for us & because of this, I’m not going to detail everything again. Any help you can send our way would be appreciated immensely!!!

Here’s How To Help Us Out:

To help us out using your credit card or debit card, please go to the following link –

https://buy.stripe.com/8x2fZiaU4f4UcgO3Uxfw40c.

To help us out using PayPal, please go to the following link –

https://www.paypal.com/paypalme/crownweather .

To help us out using Venmo, please go to the following link –

https://account.venmo.com/u/crownweather (if Venmo asks you to verify payment, the last 4 digits of my phone number is 0009).

You must be logged in to view this content.

You must be logged in to view this content.

You must be logged in to view this content.

You must be logged in to view this content.

You must be logged in to view this content.

Summary: A significant tornado outbreak is looking very likely across central & eastern Kansas, southeastern Nebraska, northwestern Missouri and southwestern Iowa during this afternoon and this evening. Very large to giant hail and multiple strong to violent tornadoes are expected across this entire area.

Details: It’s going to be a dangerous afternoon and evening across a large part of central and eastern Kansas, southeastern Nebraska, northwestern Missouri and southwestern Iowa as an extremely unstable air mass combines with strong amounts of low-level wind shear to produce intense supercells.

These supercell severe thunderstorms will track northeastward across central and eastern Kansas into southeastern Nebraska, northwestern Missouri and southwestern Iowa during this afternoon and this evening. The environment across this entire area will be extremely favorable for strong to violent tornadoes, large to giant hail and damaging winds.

A Potentially Dangerous Situation Tornado Watch is already in effect across northeastern Kansas and southeastern Nebraska & I anticipate to see additional Tornado Watches be issued across eastern and central Kansas, western and northwestern Missouri and southwestern Iowa during this afternoon and this evening.

Finally – I wanted to mention that there is an area of convection that’s present over the southwestern North Atlantic just east of the Bahamas. While this convection looks “impressive” on satellite imagery, there is no chance at all of it developing into a tropical system. The environmental conditions are highly unfavorable for development due to strong amounts of wind shear. I just wanted to mention it, in case you were curious about it.

You must be logged in to view this content.