I wanted to send out a quick and short update (a full tropical weather discussion will be sent out Monday afternoon) on the possibility of tropical development next weekend in the eastern and northeastern Gulf.

A frontal boundary is expected to drop southward into the northeastern Gulf towards Friday and Saturday. As it does so, it is possible that a piece of energy may split off near the tail end of this front leading to low pressure to develop over the eastern and northeastern Gulf during next weekend. Should this occur, then we could very well see the development of a tropical system in the eastern and northeastern Gulf next weekend.

Model guidance such as the European ensemble guidance, the European AIFS model and the European AIFS ensemble guidance are certainly waking up to the tropical development possibility. In fact, the European AIFS model has been showing this development potential in the northeastern Gulf for next weekend for a couple of days now. Other model guidance such as the GFS model and the Canadian model show no development at all next weekend. As for the Google Deep Mind ensemble model, it only shows a handful of members forecasting development & overall isn’t that enthused in showing development.

My thinking is that I do believe the idea of tropical development in the eastern and northeastern Gulf is certainly possible & I put the chances of it occurring at 20-30 percent right now. The setup next weekend is kind of a classic setup to see a tropical system form. This setup includes a low pressure system forming at the tail end of an old front. This low pressure system would also form under an upper-level high pressure system located to the north & overall the environmental conditions look at least marginal for development. Overall, this is a pretty common way to get tropical development this time of year & I certainly think it is something to keep a close eye on.

I will send out a full discussion which will include the latest on this possible development for next weekend sometime Monday Afternoon.