Tropical Development Continues To Be Possible Near The Southeast Coast Of The United States Late This Weekend Into Early Next Week: A stalled decaying frontal boundary now located off of the US Southeast Coast may help to spawn a low pressure system during this weekend.
This low pressure system is expected to be located over the very warm waters of the Gulf Stream and because of this, it looks quite possible that it could transition into a tropical system during Sunday.
This system, whether it becomes a tropical system or not, is likely to head northwestward towards the Carolina coastline during the day on Monday.
My advice for those of you along the South Carolina and North Carolina coast is to watch this system very closely as it does have the potential to develop pretty quickly giving you very little time to prepare.
In fact, the model guidance and especially the GFS model has trended stronger in terms of how much this system develops. What the guidance seems to be showing is a system that quickly spins up into a named tropical storm sometime on Sunday into Monday that tracks inland by late Monday or Tuesday.
The main threats from this system, whether it becomes a tropical storm or not, will be heavy rain, rough seas, beach erosion, coastal flooding and rip currents along much of the South and North Carolina coasts starting this weekend and continuing into at least the first half of next week.
Western Caribbean Might Be An Area To Look At For Potential Tropical Development During The Week Of September 23: The western Caribbean might light up with activity once we get into the week of September 23. After being stuck in a background state of sinking air over the Atlantic Basin, it appears that things may shift into a more favorable state of rising air. This should help to support and sustain tropical development and things just look more active after next week.
Some of the model guidance seem to be hinting at the possibility of tropical development to occur in the western Caribbean during the week of September 23. This development signal is a little stronger as compared to yesterday and I do think it’s something that’ll need to be watched closely.
That said, it’s still too soon to really tell how this will all unfold and things probably wont start getting clearer until sometime next week.
I just wanted to give you all a heads-up that the western Caribbean could be a spot to really watch for tropical development in about 10-15 days from now. This is something that I’ll be watching closely and will have updates as needed.
The next tropical weather discussion will be issued on Sunday.