Invest 95-L Located Over The Central Tropical Atlantic: Invest 95-L continues to organize at a steady pace as of this afternoon. Satellite imagery indicates that there is banding noted with this system and there is a noted increase in deep thunderstorm activity.
Based on everything that I’ve looked at, I do think that Invest 95-L is very probably a tropical depression now and I do expect an upgrade from the National Hurricane Center at either 5 pm or 11 pm today. Additionally, I think we’ll probably see Invest 95-L strengthen into a tropical storm probably as soon as tomorrow. The next name on the list is Beryl.
The environmental conditions around Invest 95-L are quite favorable, especially for this time of year and it seems quite plausible that we’ll see this system strengthen into not only a tropical storm, but potentially a hurricane by the time it reaches the central and southern Lesser Antilles on Monday.
I strongly urge everyone across the central and southern Lesser Antilles, including Barbados, St. Lucia, St. Vincent and the Grenadines to prepare for not only tropical storm conditions but for hurricane conditions during the day on Monday.
It should be noted that the model intensity guidance is forecasting the odds of rapid intensification at between 30 and 40 percent over the next 2-3 days or so. This supports the idea that Invest 95-L is in an environment that is favorable for not only strengthening, but rapid strengthening between now and when it reaches the central and southern Lesser Antilles on Monday.
Looking further ahead, it looks likely that this system will track westward and west-northwestward across the Caribbean next week. The question then becomes whether it will remain a tropical storm or hurricane or weaken as it tracks across the Caribbean. The model guidance seems to be pointing towards a less favorable environment for strengthening due to stronger wind shear values. If this happens, then weakening would occur as it heads across the Caribbean next week.
As for a track next week, the model guidance are in good agreement on a westward or west-northwestward track for much of next week. There are differences, however, in the guidance with the GFS ensemble guidance showing a further north track towards the Yucatan Channel and the European ensemble model guidance showing a further south track towards northern Honduras, Belize and the Yucatan Peninsula by later next week. That said, if there is strong westerly wind shear impacting Invest 95-L for much of next week, it’s possible that it may be a weak system by the time it reaches the western or northwestern Caribbean.
Model Track Forecast:
Satellite Imagery:
Another Tropical Disturbance Over The Far Eastern Tropical Atlantic Also Is Being Watched For Potential Development: If that wasn’t enough, I’m also keeping an eye on a tropical disturbance over the far eastern Tropical Atlantic to see if it might develop as it heads westward over the next several days.
A look at the environmental conditions around this system reveals that the wind shear values are certainly favorable for development and it seems enveloped in a very moist atmospheric conditions.
The model guidance are in a lot more disagreement with what might occur with this other disturbance.
The GFS and the GFS ensemble model guidance seem to suggest a follow-up hit on the central and southern Lesser Antilles during the middle part of next week as perhaps a tropical storm.
The Canadian model shows a track that takes this system over the southern Lesser Antilles as a tropical storm around Wednesday of next week.
The European model is much weaker and seems to point towards it barely being a depression as it crosses the southern Lesser Antilles on Wednesday of next week.
My advice is let’s get past Invest 95-L first before we really take a close look at this next system. That said, this next tropical disturbance is only 2 days behind Invest 95-L and if you are in the central and southern Lesser Antilles, I would keep close tabs on this disturbance too.
The next full tropical weather discussion will be issued on Saturday. When Invest 95-L is upgraded to a Tropical Depression, I will send out a short update letting you all know of this.