Crown Weather
Discussions

Things are expected to remain quiet across the Atlantic, Caribbean and the Gulf through this weekend & no tropical development is expected. Analysis reveals that very strong wind shear values exists across the Gulf, the Caribbean and much of the Atlantic and this is a big reason why tropical development is not expected for at least the next several days.

Turning to next week and especially by later next week, it appears that stormy and squally weather will become commonplace across the western and northwestern Caribbean, including across much of the Yucatan Peninsula and across Belize. This squally weather may also affect western Cuba and the Cayman Islands by later next week.

One reason for this expected stormy weather has to do with an upper level trough of low pressure that will be located over the eastern United States this weekend into early next week. This trough of low pressure is expected to lift out to the northeast leaving behind a piece of energy and moisture over the northwestern Caribbean by later next week. This piece of energy will help to produce squally weather over the western and the northwestern Caribbean next week, but especially during late next week.

Eventually, we might see the development of a tropical system over the northwestern Caribbean around next weekend or so. That said, this is not a sure thing, but it is a possibility and is something that does need to be watched.

Latest Model Guidance: There continues to be some consensus in the model guidance that points to the possibility of tropical development occurring around next weekend or so. That said, some of the guidance are much more aggressive than others.

The GFS model guidance continues to consistently show the potential for tropical development over the northwestern Caribbean during next weekend. In fact, the last few forecast runs of the GFS model has been quite aggressive and strong with its forecast strength of this system. This is a bias of the GFS model where it can overstrengthen tropical systems & in the end, they are much weaker than what the model showed. That said, the GFS model does show some sort of a tropical system to track from the northwestern Caribbean next weekend to either into the eastern Gulf or near the Florida Peninsula during the first half of the week of June 9.

On the end of the spectrum, the Canadian model forecasts no development at all in the northwestern Caribbean.

The European model also doesn’t support the intensity of the tropical system that the GFS model shows. It does show, however, some sort of an area of disturbed weather to be located in the northwestern Caribbean next weekend into the first part of the week of June 9.

It should also be pointed out that both the GFS and the European models have a similar weather pattern setup for next weekend. Both models do show an upper level trough of low pressure to be located over the Gulf and the northwestern Caribbean next weekend. The reason why the GFS model seems to be forecasting a lot more disturbed weather to be present leading to a more favorable environment for development. Again, I do want to emphasize that the GFS model does have a bias towards overdoing the amount of disturbed weather that occurs and erroneously spinning up tropical systems in the western Caribbean. In the end, development usually is much slower to occur or it doesn’t occur at all.

The GFS ensemble model guidance and also the European ensemble model guidance both show members that forecast development in the northwestern Caribbean next weekend. Much like its operational counterpart, the GFS ensemble model guidance is quite aggressive with their forecast development. It should be pointed out that the European ensemble model guidance does show a 30-40 percent chance for tropical development in the northwestern Caribbean and the southern Gulf during the week of June 9.

Here Are My Latest Thoughts: First off, I am completely disregarding the GFS model in how it shows a strong tropical system next weekend into the week of June 9.

That being said, the GFS model has had a decent track record of sniffing out tropical development well ahead of any of the other models. This has occurred several times during the past two hurricane seasons, so the GFS model may be seeing something in terms of tropical development.

My thinking right now is that I think there is certainly a chance for a tropical disturbance to fester over the northwestern Caribbean starting during next weekend. It’s then possible (although a very low possibility right now) that we could see a tropical depression or a sloppy and disorganized tropical storm form over the northwestern Caribbean and the southern Gulf during the first part of the week of June 9.

This is something that still has my attention and is something that I will continue to keep a close eye on.

The next tropical weather discussion will be issued on Monday.

Things are expected to be quiet across the Atlantic, Caribbean and the Gulf throughout the rest of this week right through this weekend & no tropical development is expected.

As we get into next week, it appears that things are expected to become more stormy across the western and northwestern Caribbean. The reason for this storminess is due in part to a westward moving tropical wave that’s currently located over the central Tropical Atlantic near 48 West Longitude. It is expected that this tropical wave will reach the western Caribbean by about the early part of next week. The energy and moisture from this tropical wave is expected to combine with a favorable background state from an upward motion pulse of the Madden Julian Oscillation.

At first, this combination will probably produce stormy and squally weather across the western and northwestern Caribbean throughout next week. This squally weather may also affect western Cuba, the Cayman Islands, the Yucatan Peninsula and Belize during next week.

Eventually, we might see the development of a tropical system over the northwestern Caribbean between late next week and next weekend (between about June 5 and June 8). That said, this is not a sure thing, but it is a possibility and is something that does need to be watched.

Latest Model Guidance: There is a consensus in the model guidance that points to the possibility of tropical development occurring as soon as late next week.

The GFS model guidance is consistently showing the potential for tropical development to occur over the northwestern Caribbean as soon as late next week. The latest GFS model guidance continues to show this possible tropical development to occur in the northwestern Caribbean by next Friday and next Saturday. The GFS model then forecasts this tropical system to move into the southern and central Gulf by the following Monday and Tuesday (June 9 & 10).

The European model has been on and off with its forecast of tropical development. It does show a marked increase in stormy weather over the western and northwestern Caribbean to occur by next Tuesday and next Wednesday. The latest European model guidance forecast does show some minor tropical development to occur in the south-central Gulf around next Thursday and next Friday.

A look at the latest GFS ensemble reveals a marked increase in members that show tropical development in the northwestern Caribbean late next week. The GFS ensemble members then diverge with some members forecasting a track northwestward and westward towards the western Gulf while others show a track north or northeastward towards the eastern Gulf or towards Florida next weekend.

The European ensemble model guidance does show a few members forecasting development in the northwestern Caribbean very near the northeastern tip of the Yucatan Peninsula around Wednesday and Thursday of next week. Most of these model members forecast a track west-northwestward towards the western Gulf next weekend.

The European ensemble model guidance also shows a 25-30 percent chance for tropical development in the far western Caribbean very near the coasts of Belize and the Yucatan Peninsula later next week.

The latest European model weeklies is showing a 10-20 percent chance for a tropical storm to form between June 9 and June 15 in the southern and central Gulf.

Here Are My Thoughts As Of Late Tuesday Afternoon: I still think that the overall weather pattern for next week and the following week looks favorable for tropical development to occur in the western and the northwestern Caribbean. Whatever forms in the northwestern Caribbean would be pulled into the Gulf.

An upward motion pulse of the Madden Julian Oscillation is expected to push eastward into the Gulf and the Caribbean during the first half of June. This upward motion pulse promotes rising air and enhanced thunderstorm activity.

Right now, the environmental conditions across the Gulf and the Caribbean are highly unfavorable for tropical development. This is expected to reverse itself during the first week and more likely the second week of June as that upward motion pulse of the Madden Julian Oscillation causes the monsoon trough to be pushed northward leading to a favorable environment across the western Caribbean. While these favorable environmental conditions does not guarantee a tropical system will form, there will certainly be an opportunity for something to develop as soon as late next week over the western and northwestern Caribbean.

FYI – The first name on the 2025 list is Andrea.

This is something that still has my attention and is something that I will be keeping a close eye on.

The next tropical weather discussion will be issued on Friday.

Weather analysis as of this afternoon indicated that all is quiet across the Atlantic, Caribbean and the Gulf. Extremely strong wind shear values continues to affect all of the Atlantic, Caribbean and Gulf & these very strong wind shear values are highly unfavorable for any sort of tropical development.

I did want to mention that there is an area of disturbed weather located over the far eastern Pacific to the south of the coast of southern Mexico. This area of disturbed weather is likely to develop into a tropical depression and probably the first tropical storm of the season in the eastern Pacific by the middle part of this week. It should be noted that this system will travel out into the open waters of the eastern Pacific and not be a threat to any land areas.

Tropical Development Is A Possibility During The Middle & Later Parts Of Next Week (June 4 To June 7) Over The Western & Northwestern Caribbean Into The Gulf: There is the possibility that tropical mischief could occur in the area from the western Caribbean into the Gulf during the first week of June. I want to explain why I think that this is a very real possibility.

Satellite imagery as of this afternoon indicated a tropical wave now located over the far eastern Tropical Atlantic very near 30 West Longitude. This tropical wave lacks any sort of deep convection, but analysis reveals that there is some low-level spin evident with the tropical wave. For now, this tropical wave probably will not do anything in terms of development for the next several days or so.

It is expected that this tropical wave will move westward throughout this upcoming week through next weekend. This tropical wave should reach the western Caribbean by about early next week (around June 2 or 3) where it may need to be watched for possible tropical development.

The energy and moisture from that tropical wave may combine with a favorable background state for development from a upward motion pulse of the Madden Julian Oscillation once it reaches the western Caribbean early next week. This combination could lead to favorable conditions for tropical development in the western Caribbean next week (June 2-7) & anything that tries to develop could be pushed into the Gulf.

Latest Model Guidance: The model guidance have been gradually trending towards increased chances for tropical development next week.

The GFS model does point to an area of disturbed weather to be located in the western and northwestern Caribbean by next Monday and the disturbed weather to gradually push into the southeastern Gulf and the up the East Coast of the United States by later next week.

The European model indicates the possibility of an area of disturbed weather to be located from the northwestern Caribbean northward into South Florida by the first half of next week (June 2-4). The European model then forecasts this disturbed weather to head northward across the eastern Gulf later next week.

A look at the GFS ensemble model guidance reveals an increase in members showing development across the northwestern Caribbean and the southern Gulf by the middle part of next week. The GFS ensemble members then diverge with some members forecasting a track northward towards the central Gulf Coast by about June 7 with other members forecasting a northeasterly track towards Florida and up the East Coast of the United States. Yet other ensemble members show a track westward towards the Bay of Campeche and the southwestern Gulf.

The European ensemble model guidance does show a few members forecasting development in the northwestern Caribbean into the eastern Gulf by the middle part of next week. Much like the GFS ensemble model, the European ensemble model members diverge in showing where any development might go. Some members show a track towards the central Gulf coast while others show this system remaining in the southern Gulf through late next week before slowly moving northward next weekend (June 7-8).

The European ensemble model guidance also shows a 20-25 percent chance for tropical development in the northwestern Caribbean later next week.

Here Are My Thoughts As Of Late Sunday Afternoon: I do think that the weather pattern over the next one to two weeks is certainly pointing towards tropical mischief to occur in the western Caribbean and the Gulf.

The weather pattern this coming week includes a strong upper level trough of low pressure to push into the eastern United States by late this week and will remain in place through next weekend.

That upper level trough of low pressure is expected to lift out of the eastern United States by the first half of next week, however, a piece of energy may be left behind over the southeastern Gulf and the northwestern Caribbean by the middle part of next week.

This piece of energy could combine with that westward moving tropical wave and the favorable background state of the Madden Julian Oscillation leading to the possibility of northwestern Caribbean tropical development around the middle and later parts of next week. This is something that certainly has my attention and is something that I will be keeping a close eye on.

The next tropical weather discussion will be issued on Wednesday.

Weather analysis as of late this afternoon indicated that there are no areas of concern in terms of tropical development across the Atlantic, Caribbean and the Gulf. Extremely strong wind shear values can be found across the entire Gulf, much of the Atlantic and the eastern and central Caribbean. These very strong wind shear values are highly unfavorable for any sort of tropical development. One area of lower wind shear of 10 to 20 knots can be found across the southwestern Caribbean. Even so, there lacks any sort of deep convection across the southwestern Caribbean and because of this, tropical development is not expected there, even though the environmental conditions are favorable.

Tropical Development Remains A Possibility Between June 7 & June 14 From The Northwestern Caribbean Into The Gulf: It still appears that the rest of this month should be quiet in terms of tropical development chances as the overall environment looks unfavorable for tropical development.

Beyond this, it continues to look possible that an upward motion pulse of the Madden Julian Oscillation will push through the Caribbean and the Atlantic beginning the last part of the first week of June. This upward motion pulse of the Madden Julian Oscillation looks to reach its peak across the Caribbean and the Atlantic between June 7 and June 12.

This upward motion pulse of the Madden Julian Oscillation will inject moisture and energy into the atmosphere across the Caribbean, the Gulf and the Atlantic leading to a favorable background state fro tropical development.

Looking at the latest weather forecast guidance for early June shows no real outright signs of tropical development from either the GFS or the European models. Of course both models only go out to about June 5, which is just before when things begin to become favorable for tropical development.

As for the ensemble model guidance, the GFS ensemble model guidance does show some members forecasting tropical development to occur during the first week of June in the northwestern Caribbean. I do think that we’re seeing the typical model bias & that the better chances probably will wait until just after June 7.

The European ensemble model guidance does show some hints at tropical development in the northwestern Caribbean around June 4-5 with a couple of members pointing to that possibility.

The longer range European ensemble model guidance shows some pretty decent hints at tropical activity in the northwestern Caribbean with whatever forms moving into the Gulf between June 7 and June 14. In fact, the latest CFS model backs this up and shows a tropical system taking shape over the northwestern Caribbean as late as June 15 and taking a track through the Gulf on June 16 and 17 before making landfall along the central Gulf Coast on June 18.

Here Are My Thoughts As Of Wednesday Evening: Given everything that I have looked at, including the favorable look in terms of environmental conditions over the Caribbean and the Gulf after June 7 and also the first hints from the models showing tropical development in the northwestern Caribbean between June 7 and 14, I do think that the prospects of tropical development in the northwestern Caribbean is something that’ll need to be watched closely starting during the weekend of June 7-8 and continuing through the week of June 9.

While this is something that will certainly need to be watched closely once we get into early June, it’s nothing to be overly worried or concerned about, for now.

The next tropical weather discussion will be issued on Monday.

Summary: A significant severe weather outbreak is expected this afternoon into tonight from the central and southern Plains states eastward into the Ozarks. Tornadoes, some strong to violent in intensity, very large hail and damaging wind gusts are all expected. In particular a tornado outbreak looks likely across central and eastern Oklahoma, north Texas, southeastern Kansas, southwestern Missouri and northwestern Arkansas.

Details: Strong amounts of low-level wind shear currently exists across far southern Kansas, much of central Oklahoma and northwest Texas at the time of this writing. As temperatures rise late this morning into this afternoon and combine with 70-plus degree dew point temperatures, the atmosphere across much of the central and southern Plains will become extremely unstable.

Multiple supercell severe thunderstorms are expected to develop from eastern Kansas & western Missouri southwestward into central Oklahoma and north Texas by 2-3 pm CDT this afternoon & be a big problem for these areas through late this afternoon.

These supercell thunderstorms are expected to push eastward into eastern Oklahoma, western & central Missouri by early this evening & into northwestern Arkansas and eastern Missouri by 10-11 pm CDT this evening.

These storms will be moving through an extremely unstable and strongly sheered environment leading to multiple tornadoes to form & at least a few of the tornadoes will be strong to violent. The area I am most concerned about for strong to violent tornadoes is central and eastern Oklahoma, far north Texas, southeastern Kansas, southwestern Missouri and northwestern Arkansas.

In addition, very large hail and very damaging wind gusts will be likely with the severe weather as well.

For those of you in the orange and red colored areas of central and eastern Oklahoma, north Texas, northwestern Arkansas, western and central Missouri and eastern Kansas, please review your plans if you are impacted by a severe thunderstorm or a tornado. If a tornado warning is issued for your area, move to a place of safety, ideally in a basement or interior room on the lowest floor of a sturdy building. If you have family, friends or colleagues in the severe weather threat area, feel free to pass this discussion on to them.

Weather analysis today revealed that there are no areas of concern in terms of tropical development across the Atlantic, Caribbean and the Gulf. Extremely strong wind shear values can be found across the entire Gulf, Caribbean and Atlantic. These very strong wind shear values are highly unfavorable for any sort of tropical development.

Weather analysis also revealed that an upper level low pressure system located to the northwest of Puerto Rico is producing some squally weather across Puerto Rico, the Virgin Islands and the northern Leeward Islands. This squally weather is expected to continue throughout the rest of this weekend into Monday across the Leeward Islands and the Virgin Islands. The squally weather should diminish by about Tuesday.

Western Caribbean Tropical Development Is A Possibility Between June 6 & June 16: The next 2 to 3 weeks or so looks quiet in terms of tropical development chances as the overall environment looks unfavorable for tropical development.

Beyond this, it continues to look possible that an upward motion pulse of the Madden Julian Oscillation will push through the Caribbean and the Atlantic during the period from June 6 to June 16. This upward motion pulse of the Madden Julian Oscillation will inject moisture and energy into the atmosphere across the Caribbean and the Atlantic leading to a favorable background state fro tropical development.

At this point, none of the extremely long range model guidance show any sort of tropical development during that time period. That said, I do think that the prospects for tropical development is something that does need to be watched between June 6 and June 16. The area that I think needs to be watched most closely is the area from the western Caribbean to about the southern Gulf.

While this is something that might need to be watched closely once we get into early June, it’s nothing to be overly worried or concerned about.

The next tropical weather discussion will be issued on Wednesday.

Weather analysis today revealed that there are no areas of concern in terms of tropical development across the Atlantic, Caribbean and the Gulf. Extremely strong wind shear values can be found across the entire Gulf, Caribbean and Atlantic. These very strong wind shear values are highly unfavorable for any sort of tropical development.

While tropical development looks unlikely throughout the rest of this week right through this weekend, there are some items that I do want to mention.

The First Thing That I Wanted To Mention is the possibility of several days of unsettled and squally weather across much of the Lesser Antilles, the Virgin Islands, Puerto Rico and the area around the eastern Caribbean. This squally weather looks to possibly occur starting on Thursday and Friday and lasting through all of this weekend and the first half of next week.

Model guidance seems to be starting to agree with each other with showing a trough of low pressure pushing southward from a departing frontal system over the central North Atlantic. This trough of low pressure is anticipated to reach the eastern Caribbean by Friday night and Saturday where it could stall for several days.

It needs to be pointed out that tropical development is not expected from this weather system due to the expectation of very strong wind shear values.

What does this mean in terms of weather across the eastern Caribbean? An increasing frequency in showers and thunderstorms with squally weather is expected starting on Thursday and Friday. This squally weather currently looks to reach its peak across Puerto Rico, the Virgin Islands and the Leeward Islands from Friday through Saturday. The peak of the squally weather looks to occur across the Windward Islands from Saturday through Sunday.

The Second Thing That I Wanted To Mention is a low chance for tropical development over the southwestern Caribbean from this weekend through next week. While the chances of tropical development are low, they are not a zero percent chance. Because of this, this is something that I will continue to keep an eye on.

All of the model guidance continues to be on and off with showing tropical development with one run of a model showing something and the next run dropping it. Usually when we see this with the model guidance, it means tropical development probably will not occur.

Weather analysis as of today does show an area of thunderstorms located over the far eastern Pacific just south of Panama. It should be pointed out that the wind shear values over the far eastern Pacific are around 15 to 20 knots, which is marginally favorable for tropical development. Because of this, I do think that we’ll see higher development chances over the eastern Pacific rather than the southwestern Caribbean.

As of right now, I still think that there’s a 10 percent chance for tropical development over the southwestern Caribbean from this weekend through next week.

The Final Item That I Wanted To Mention is a better chance for tropical development in the western Caribbean between about June 6 and June 16.

It is looking increasingly more possible that a rather robust upward motion pulse will push into the Atlantic and the Caribbean during the period from June 6 to June 16. This upward motion pulse of the Madden Julian Oscillation will inject moisture and energy into the atmosphere across the Caribbean and the Atlantic leading to a favorable background state fro tropical development.

While the extremely long range model guidance do not show any sort of tropical development during that time period, I do think that it is something that needs to be watched. The area that I think probably needs the most scrutiny is the western Caribbean into the Gulf where it is favorable normally for tropical development during the first half of June.

While this is something that might need to be watched closely once we get into early June, it’s nothing to be overly worried or concerned about.

The next tropical weather discussion will be issued on Saturday.

I wanted to update you on the latest concerning the continuing heavy rainfall across the southeastern United States, which will push its way into the Mid-Atlantic states during Monday. This heavy rainfall is then expected to last until about Wednesday.

An upper-level low pressure system located over the Deep South will help to pull copious amounts of Gulf moisture into the Southeastern United States. At the same time this is occurring, a stationary front located across the north-central and northeastern Gulf Coast will help to focus the heavy rainfall and thunderstorms.

For the rest of this afternoon through tonight, the heaviest rainfall amounts will occur across southeastern and eastern Alabama, central and southern Georgia, the Florida Panhandle, north Florida, much of South Carolina and southern North Carolina.

During Monday and Monday night, the heavy rainfall will become focused across much of the Florida Peninsula, eastern Georgia, much of South Carolina, much of North Carolina and southern Virginia.

On Tuesday and Tuesday night, heavy rain is expected to occur across central, eastern and northern Virginia, much of Maryland, much of Delaware, southeastern Pennsylvania and much of New Jersey.

All of the heavy rain will push offshore by Wednesday.

The highest rainfall amounts of 2 to 4 inches over the next couple of days will occur across much of the Florida Peninsula, except for far southwest Florida, eastern and southeastern Georgia, much of South Carolina, much of North Carolina, southern and central Virginia.

Two areas of particularly heavy rainfall amounts on the order of 4 to 6 inches is possible across southeastern North Carolina and across the Appalachian Mountains of western North Carolina.

A full tropical weather discussion will be sent out sometime on Tuesday, which will cover the latest regarding the lowering chances for tropical development starting next week in the Western Caribbean. It will also cover the next window for possible tropical development in the Western Caribbean between June 6 and June 16.

Northern Gulf Low Pressure System Development Will Lead To Heavy Rain This Weekend Into Early Next Week Across Central & North Florida, The Florida Panhandle, Southern & Eastern Alabama, Much Of Georgia, Much Of South Carolina & Southern North Carolina: Weather analysis as of late this morning indicated that there is plentiful amounts of moisture streaming northward from the Gulf into southern Louisiana and southwestern Mississippi where a stationary front is located. This is leading to moderate to heavy amounts of rain to occur at the time of this writing across central and southern Louisiana and southwestern Mississippi.

It is expected that a low pressure system will form over the north-central Gulf just to the south of coastal Alabama and the western Florida Panhandle by Saturday morning. This low pressure system is then expected to remain either nearly stationary or just mill around coastal parts of Mississippi, Alabama and the Florida Panhandle as we get into Sunday and Monday.

It should be noted that the environmental conditions will be highly unfavorable for any sort of tropical development due to strong wind shear. Even though tropical development is not expected with this low pressure system, the moisture and energy with this low pressure system will interact with a stationary front & produce heavy rainfall with flooding across a large area from central and north Florida northward into the Carolinas this weekend into early next week.

Heavy rain with the potential for flooding is expected the rest of today through tonight across southeastern Louisiana, southern Mississippi, southern Alabama and the western and central Florida Panhandle.

During Saturday and Saturday night, heavy rain with flooding is expected across central and southern Alabama, central and southern Georgia, all of the Florida Panhandle and parts of north Florida.

As we get into Sunday and Sunday night, very heavy rain with likely flooding is expected across the Florida Panhandle, north Florida, central and southern Georgia.

Maximum rainfall totals of 3 to 5 inches are expected from today through this weekend across southern Alabama, central and southern Georgia, all of the Florida Panhandle and north Florida.

Turning to early next week, multiple rounds of heavy rain is expected from much of the Florida Peninsula northward through eastern and southeastern Georgia, all of South Carolina, all of North Carolina and southern and central Virginia. Flash flooding is likely from this heavy rainfall in the upslope regions of the southern Appalachians of southwestern Virginia, western North Carolina, northwestern South Carolina and northeast Georgia.

---

Slight Possibility Of Western Caribbean Tropical Development Starting Next Weekend: The latest data seems to be trending towards a decreasing chance of tropical development over the western Caribbean starting next weekend. That said, it is not a zero chance and because of that it is something that I’m still going to keep an eye on.

The GFS model seems to have trended from western Caribbean tropical development towards development occurring in the eastern Pacific by about May 19. That said, the GFS model tries to split off a piece of energy that travels eastward to the Lesser Antilles where it produces an area of low pressure over the far eastern Caribbean next Sunday. This low pressure system produces several days of heavy rain across the Lesser Antilles from next Friday May 16 to Tuesday May 20.

The Canadian and European models forecast no tropical development at all next weekend anywhere in the Caribbean.

It should be noted that the European ensemble model guidance still shows a 30 percent chance of tropical development in the far southwestern Caribbean late next week and next weekend. Also, the longer range European ensemble model guidance keeps the chances for tropical development in the 20-40 percent range through the week of May 26 and the week of June 2 across the southwestern Caribbean. So this part of the Caribbean certainly will need to be watched during the second half of this month.

Here Are My Thoughts: While the western Caribbean may need to be watched for possible tropical development during the second half of this month, I do think that the chances of tropical development are lower as compared to what I thought on Tuesday.

An upward motion pulse of the Madden Julian Oscillation is expected to cross the Caribbean during next week. Latest guidance has trended weaker with this upward motion pulse & this is probably why the guidance have trended lower with development chances. It should be noted that the model guidance are showing the next upward motion pulse of the Madden Julian Oscillation to push through the Caribbean and the Atlantic between June 6 and June 16. This could be the next window to watch for possible tropical development.

My thinking as of today is that I’m lowering the chances of tropical development in the western Caribbean to 10 percent starting next weekend. While it is something to keep an eye on, it seems that it’s much more likely tropical development will not occur.

The next tropical weather discussion will be issued on Sunday & will mostly cover the heavy rainfall & flooding threat across the Southeastern United States.

I wanted to send out a quick update concerning the likelihood that a low pressure system will form over the north-central and northeastern Gulf by late Friday into Saturday. The environmental conditions are expected to be unfavorable for any sort of tropical development due to strong wind shear. This low pressure system is expected to track into southern Alabama and southern Mississippi by Saturday night and Sunday.

Even though tropical development is not expected with this low pressure system, the moisture and energy with this low pressure system will be abundant. Because of this, heavy flooding rains are expected to develop across southern Alabama, southwestern Georgia and the Florida Panhandle by Friday night and Saturday. This heavy rain, which will produce flash flooding is expected to continue across southern Alabama, southern Georgia, the Florida Panhandle and north Florida during Saturday night and Sunday.

Maximum rainfall totals of 2 to 5 inches are expected across southern Alabama, southern Georgia, the Florida Panhandle and north Florida between Friday night and Sunday evening.

Even more heavy rain is expected across central and north Florida, much of Georgia, much of South Carolina and southern North Carolina on Monday through Tuesday. 2 to 5 inches of additional rainfall can be expected.

Needless to say, this low pressure system will be a flood producer even though it will not be sub-tropical or tropical in nature.

A full tropical weather discussion will be sent out sometime tomorrow (Friday) updating you on the Gulf system, as well as the latest on possible western Caribbean tropical development.