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Northern Gulf Tropical Development Is Looking More Likely Between Wednesday & Friday: The latest satellite imagery indicated that there is a concentrated area of thunderstorms located offshore of Florida’s East Coast. This convection is associated with a low pressure center now located about 150 miles to the east of Jacksonville.

Analysis reveals that there is about 10-20 knots of northeasterly wind shear that is displacing the thunderstorms just to the south of the main low pressure center.

It is expected that this area of disturbed weather will move westward across the Florida Peninsula as we get into tonight and Tuesday. A ridge of high pressure to the north of the disturbance will continue to guide this system westward across the northeastern and north-central Gulf during Wednesday and Thursday. Once it reaches the north-central Gulf, the forward speed of the disturbance may slow way down as we get into Friday and the weekend. This slow-down in forward speed or even complete stall could lead to some big problems in terms of heavy rain induced flooding across southern and southeastern Louisiana and southern Mississippi late this week into this weekend.

As for development possibilities, the environment across the northern Gulf is expected to be at least somewhat favorable for development. This means that this system does have a decent shot of developing into a tropical depression or even a tropical storm as it heads westward across the northern Gulf between Wednesday and Friday.

Latest Model Guidance: The global model guidance such as the GFS and European models continue to be very tepid in their forecast of development of this system. The reasons why they seem to not show any sort of development looks to be due to marginally favorable environmental conditions and interaction with land.

One model that continues to show significant development is the ICON model. It should also be noted that the ICON model has been the most consistent in forecasting development of this disturbance. The latest 12Z run of the ICON model forecasts the disturbance to cross the central Florida Peninsula on Tuesday and then begin to develop into a depression in the northeastern Gulf by Wednesday. From there, the ICON model forecasts this system to strengthen into a tropical storm in the north-central Gulf by Wednesday night into Thursday and then approach hurricane strength as it comes ashore in southeastern Louisiana late Thursday.

I did want to mention again that the ICON model has been pretty accurate in the Gulf with its forecast of tropical systems over the last couple of years. In fact, the ICON model was one of the only models that correctly forecasted Hurricane Beryl would impact Texas last July. So while the ICON model hasn’t been perfect in its forecasts, it has been first in showing the development of tropical systems, well before the other global models.

The GFS ensemble model guidance have only one or two members that show development in the northern Gulf later this week. So, most of the GFS ensemble model members forecast no development at all.

The European ensemble model guidance is also very shy in forecasting development as it only has 3 members forecasting development in the north-central Gulf later this week.

Here Are My Thoughts: I think that there is a very decent chance that the area of disturbed weather will become a tropical depression in the northeastern Gulf on Wednesday and then very probably become a tropical storm before it comes ashore in southeastern Louisiana late Thursday.

A couple of thoughts – First is that even though northeasterly wind shear is affecting the area of disturbed weather, the amount of deep convection that is occurring is quite healthy & is a sure sign of development.

Second thought is that the low pressure center is much more organized than what the global model guidance such as the GFS and European models show. This means that I think that these two models are not correct in their forecasts. In fact, it’s not out of the question that this system becomes a tropical depression before it crosses the Florida Peninsula.

One other thing to keep an eye on is how far south the low pressure center moves before it begins moving westward. If the low pressure center can cross the Florida Peninsula south of I-4, it would have more than enough time in the Gulf to become a fairly robust tropical storm before reaching the Louisiana coast late Thursday. On the other hand, a further north crossing across the Florida Peninsula north of I-4 would limit how much time this area of disturbed weather has over the Gulf leading to much less in the way of development.

Now, I do think that the ICON model is way too aggressive in its intensity forecast of this disturbed weather. I also think that models such as the GFS and European model are incorrect in not forecasting any sort of development.

This means that I think that there is at least a 80 percent chance of this disturbed weather becoming a depression in the northeastern Gulf Wednesday afternoon or Wednesday night. I also think that there’s a better than 50 percent chance that this system will then go on to strengthen into a 40-50 mph or so tropical storm by the time it comes ashore in southeastern Louisiana late Thursday afternoon or Thursday evening. I do think that there will be enough northerly to northeasterly wind shear over the Gulf to prevent this system becoming a hurricane. That said, it is expected that the disturbance will slow way down in forward speed just as its reaching southeastern Louisiana & given the very warm waters of the north-central Gulf, any let up in the wind shear could lead to more strengthening than what I’m thinking right now.

Heavy Rainfall Threat: Right now, the main threat from this system will be heavy rain with the risk for flash flooding, both across the Florida Peninsula the next couple of days & then across southern and southeastern Louisiana, southern Mississippi and southern Alabama later this week through this weekend.

For the Florida Peninsula – Given that most of the heavy rain is occurring to the south of the low pressure center, it seems likely that Central and South Florida will see the highest rainfall totals over the next couple of days or so. Rainfall totals of 3 to 6 inches with locally higher amounts can be expected along and especially south of I-4 with 1 to 3 inches of total rainfall expected north of I-4. These rainfall amounts will likely lead to localized flash flood issues, primarily across Central and South Florida where the highest rainfall amounts will be.

For Southern & Southeastern Louisiana, Southern Mississippi & Southern Alabama – As this system tracks westward across the northern Gulf between Wednesday and Friday, it is expected to bring heavy rainfall across southern and southeastern Louisiana, southern Mississippi and southern Alabama beginning on Wednesday night and Thursday and continuing through Friday and possibly all of this weekend. I do have serious concerns that this system could bring significant amounts of flash flooding across southern and southeastern Louisiana and southern Mississippi due to the potential for it to slow way down or stall once it reaches southeastern Louisiana. This is something that will need to be watched extremely closely.

The next tropical weather discussion will be issued on Tuesday.

Northern Gulf Tropical Development Continues To Be Possible During The Middle & Later Parts Of This Week: Satellite imagery today indicated that there is a concentrated area of shower and thunderstorm activity located just offshore of the coasts of northeast Florida, southeast Georgia and eastern South Carolina. Weather analysis reveals that an area of low pressure may be trying to form in this area. This is the system to watch this coming week for potential tropical development.

It is expected that this area of disturbed weather will begin to head in a southwesterly and then westerly direction during Monday and Tuesday. This will lead to this disturbed weather to cross the Florida Peninsula during the day on Tuesday and then push into the northeastern Gulf by Tuesday night and Wednesday.

Once this disturbed weather reaches the northeastern Gulf on Wednesday, it is expected to find itself in an environment that’s somewhat favorable for development. This means that this disturbed weather has a chance, at least, to develop into a tropical depression or a tropical storm as it heads westward across the northern Gulf later this week.

Latest Model Guidance: The model guidance vary quite a bit between each other on whether they forecast development of this disturbed weather in the northern Gulf or not.

Out of all of the model guidance, the ICON model is the most aggressive and has been the most consistent with the development of this system. The latest ICON model run forecasts this system to develop into a tropical depression in the northeastern Gulf by about Wednesday and then strengthens it into a tropical storm over the north-central Gulf by Thursday. Ultimately, the ICON model forecasts this system to come ashore along the upper Texas coast around Friday night as a upper end tropical storm.

I do want to mention that the ICON model has been pretty accurate in the Gulf with its forecast of tropical systems over the last couple of years. While it hasn’t been perfect in its forecasts, it has been first in showing the development of tropical systems, well before the other global models.

The GFS and the European models forecast no development at all from this system. Given how the area of showers and thunderstorms off of the Southeast coast of the United States looks today, I have to wonder if the ICON model might be seeing something the GFS and European models aren’t seeing.

The GFS ensemble model guidance has quite a few members that are showing development of this system in the northern Gulf later this week. All of the members that do show development forecast this system to come ashore over southern or southeastern Louisiana as a depression around Friday.

The European ensemble model guidance has a few members that show development of this system in the northern Gulf on Thursday. All of the members that do forecast development show it to come ashore over southeastern Louisiana as a depression late Friday.

Here Are My Thoughts: Given that we already have a low pressure system forming just offshore of the coasts of northeast Florida, southeast Georgia and eastern South Carolina that is producing a concentrated area of thunderstorms, I do think that there is a definite shot at this system developing into a depression and potentially even a tropical storm later this week in the northern Gulf.

The overall weather setup later this week over the northern Gulf is expected to consist of up to 10-20 knots of wind shear, very warm ocean water temperatures and a high pressure ridge that will expand to the north of this system. This could lead to this system becoming trapped and slowing way down in forward speed once it reaches the north-central Gulf near the Mississippi Delta late this week.

If this system does slow way down in forward speed later this week, it could lead to a significant flood threat across southern and southeastern Louisiana and southern Mississippi during late this week through next weekend.

As for how strong this system could be when it moves across the northern Gulf later this week – I do definitely think that strengthening into a tropical storm is very much on the table. I don’t think that we’ll see this system become a hurricane given that the overall wind shear values later this week will be marginally favorable for strengthening. That said, if this system does slow way down in forward speed later this week over the very warm waters of the north-central Gulf, it could lead to more strengthening than what I’m thinking right now.

Finally, it should be noted that this system is expected to bring some drought relieving heavy rain across much of the Florida Peninsula beginning as soon as later tonight and Monday and continuing through Thursday. Rainfall totals of 5 to 10 inches are likely across much of Central and South Florida with 2 to 5 inches of rainfall anticipated across north Florida. These rainfall amounts will very likely lead to flash flooding, especially across Central and South Florida where the highest rain amounts will be.

Forecast Rainfall Totals This Week Across Florida:

The next tropical weather discussion will be issued on Monday.

There Is The Slight Possibility Of Northern Gulf Tropical Development Late Next Week: Even though tropical development is not expected across The Atlantic, Caribbean and Gulf throughout this weekend into early next week, it seems as if we’re going to have to watch the northern Gulf for the possibility of tropical development during the later parts of next week.

A frontal boundary is expected to push into the southeastern United States during this weekend where it will stall out during next week. Eventually, an area of low pressure may split off from the tail end of that front and slip west-southwestward into the northern Gulf during the later parts of next week. This low pressure system may then need to be watched for signs of tropical development, although there is uncertainty as to whether development would actually occur.

The uncertainty lies with how far offshore this low pressure system will be positioned. If it remains over the northern Gulf, then there’s a distinct possibility for development. On the other hand, if this low pressure system rides along the coast of the northern Gulf or is inland over the northern Gulf coast, then development would not occur.

Latest Model Guidance: The model guidance continues to be pretty ho-hum in their forecast for tropical development.

The GFS model barely shows a weak low pressure system over the northern Gulf later next week & my takeaway from it is that tropical development probably wouldn’t occur.

The European model seemingly doesn’t show any signs of a low pressure system or tropical development in the northern Gulf.

The GFS ensemble model guidance does show a few members forecasting signs of development over the northeastern Gulf during late next week. Beyond that, the ensemble members split on what they want to do with this system. Some members forecast a track immediately northward into southern Alabama or the Florida Panhandle. Other members forecast a westward track towards the middle and upper Texas coast or southwestern Louisiana.

The European ensemble model, on the other hand, shows no members forecasting any sort of signs of development.

My Takeaway From This Is That while there is certainly a possibility of tropical development in the northern Gulf during late next week, the chances of it to actually occur remain very low. There are too many uncertainties in terms of how much wind shear might be present and how much land interaction there could be for me to be too terribly concerned about development. As I mentioned a couple of days ago, I think that there’s probably a higher chance that nothing comes of it due to land interaction.

For now, I’ll continue to keep a close eye on this possibility and will have more updates as needed.

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An Uptick In Tropical Development Chances Are Possible Near The End Of This Month Into The First Half Of August: The overall weather pattern across the Atlantic Basin may shift in a way to allow for more favorable conditions for tropical development starting near the end of this month and continuing into the first half of August.

An upward motion pulse of the Madden Julian Oscillation is expected to push into the Atlantic Basin during late July and early August. This will shift the background state of the tropical Atlantic from widespread unfavorable conditions due to sinking air to a more favorable environment for development due to rising air over a large part of the Atlantic.

The various model guidance supports this idea of a favorable phase for development being in place over the Atlantic during the first half of August. Furthermore, model guidance seems to be suggesting that the amount of wind shear over the Caribbean will decrease substantially by early August leading to widespread favorable conditions for development.

This is something that I’m definitely going to be keeping a close eye on, but as of right now, there are no clear cut areas of the Atlantic, Caribbean and Gulf to zero in on. Instead, we are seeing the potential for favorable conditions for tropical development over a large part of the tropical Atlantic, Caribbean and the Gulf starting in about 2-1/2 weeks from now and continuing into the first half of August.

The next tropical weather discussion will be issued on Monday.

Overall, the rest of this week through this weekend looks quiet across the Atlantic, Caribbean and Gulf with no tropical development expected.

Turning to next week, there is the possibility that there could be some sort of tropical mischief over the northern Gulf during the middle and later parts of next week. The weather setup next week that could cause this to occur is connected to a piece of energy breaking off this weekend from a stationary frontal boundary that’ll be positioned along and offshore of the Mid-Atlantic coast. This piece of energy could push southwestward reaching the northeastern Gulf around the middle part of next week and the north-central Gulf during the later parts of next week.

There is uncertainty as to how far offshore of the northern Gulf coast this piece of energy will be during the second half of next week. If it tracks over the very warm waters of the northern Gulf, then there’s going to be a legitimate chance for development. On the other hand, if the piece of energy stays right along the coast or just inland across the northern Gulf coast, then development would not occur due to land interaction.

As for the latest model guidance, the GFS model seems to be showing a tropical depression forming in the north-central Gulf around next Wednesday and then tracking westward reaching the southwest Louisiana and upper Texas coast around next Friday as a depression.

The latest European model guidance doesn’t forecast any sort of development, likely due to land interaction. The Canadian model is the same way, in that it shows no development due to land interaction.

The GFS ensemble model guidance does have a couple of members that do show development in the northern Gulf late next week. Overall, the chances from the GFS ensembles are very low.

The European ensemble model guidance is even quieter than the GFS ensemble model & only shows a couple of members forecasting development right along the northeast Gulf coast. The chances from the European ensemble model guidance are nearly zero now.

At this point, I think that while there is certainly a possibility of tropical development in the northern Gulf during the second half of next week, the chances for it to occur are very low. I think that there’s probably a higher chance that nothing comes of it due to land interaction. Either way, I’ll be keeping an eye on things and will have updates as needed.

Finally – There are some subtle signals in the data that activity may begin picking up across the Atlantic Basin near the end of this month into the first half of August. An upward motion pulse of the Madden Julian Oscillation is expected to make its way into the Atlantic during this time period, which would invigorate activity.

The extremely long range model guidance are actually beginning to show this possible uptick in activity. The European ensemble model guidance shows upwards of a 20-30 percent chance for tropical development in the area of the tropical Atlantic between the Lesser Antilles and the coast of Africa. The CFS model, for what it’s worth, shows several robust tropical disturbances moving westward off of the coast of Africa towards the eastern Caribbean and then towards either the Bahamas or the Gulf beginning during the last week of this month and continuing through the first 10 days of August.

For now, this is something to just keep an eye on, but it’s certainly nothing to be concerned or worried about.

The next tropical weather discussion will be issued on Friday.

Remnants Of Chantal: The remnants of Chantal are moving across southern and eastern Virginia today and are expected to push off of the Mid-Atlantic coast by tonight. The remnants of Chantal will then move east-northeastward out into the open Atlantic as we get into Tuesday and we will be able to close the books on this storm.

The remnants of Chantal will continue to produce heavy rainfall across the Mid-Atlantic states throughout the rest of today. The highest potential for flooding exists across Maryland and Delaware into southeastern Pennsylvania and southern New Jersey.

Further south across central North Carolina, even though the heavy rainfall associated with Chantal is now done, it did produce some extremely heavy rainfall totals of up to one foot across areas west of Fayetteville and Raleigh-Durham last night. The Haw River near Bynum reached major flood stage shortly before 5 AM ET Monday and then broke the record water level from Hurricane Fran with a peak river level of 22.08 feet.

The Eno River at Durham also appears to have broken its record from Hurricane Fran by about 2 feet with a peak river level of 25.63 feet.

Both rivers are now beginning to recede and will likely fall back to below flood stage by later today or on Tuesday.

This will be the last update on Chantal.

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Elsewhere Across The Atlantic, Caribbean & Gulf: There are a couple of areas that I wanted to mention as they did catch my attention.

The First Area That I Wanted To Mention Is a surface trough of low pressure located just north of the Turks and Caicos Islands. This trough of low pressure is producing some shower and thunderstorm activity and there are a few reasons why it caught my attention.

The first reason is that the wind shear values over this trough of low pressure are only between 5 and 15 knots, which is favorable for development.

The second reason is that there is actually some low and mid level spin associated with this system and I do think this is something that should be watched, in case it does try to spin-up into a low pressure system.

While most of the model guidance really doesn’t forecast development of this trough of low pressure, it should be noted that the European ensemble model guidance does forecast a 30 percent chance for tropical development by the time this system reaches near the North Carolina coast later this week into this weekend.

While I’m not expecting any sort of immediate tropical development from the area of showers and thunderstorms north of the Turks and Caicos, it is something that I will be keeping an eye on, just in case. All-in-all though, I think the chances for development look fairly low.

The Second Area I Wanted To Mention Is the possibility that we could see some sort of tropical development over the northern Gulf around the middle and later parts of next week. A very similar weather setup looks to occur as we just saw with Chantal as a frontal boundary stalls out over the northern Gulf and tries to spin up a tropical system near the tail end of the front.

As for the model guidance, the GFS ensemble model guidance does show a few members forecasting some development occurring over the northern Gulf around the middle and later parts of next week.

As for the European ensemble model guidance, there are only two ensemble members that show development in the northern Gulf around the middle part of next week. It should be noted that the European ensemble model guidance is forecast about a 10-15 percent chance for development in the northern Gulf during the second half of next week.

At this point, I think that there is certainly the possibility for tropical development in the northern Gulf during the second half of next week. That said, the chances for it to occur are quite low right now. For now, this is something to just keep an eye on, just in case & is nothing to be worried or concerned about.

The next tropical weather discussion will be issued on Wednesday.

Tropical Depression Chantal: Chantal made landfall early this morning near Myrtle Beach as a 50-60 mph tropical storm. As the storm made landfall, it did produce wind gusts of between 45 and 55 mph along the coast between Bald Head Island, North Carolina and Myrtle Beach, South Carolina.

The center of Chantal is now inland and is located near the North and South Carolina border. Chantal will continue to weaken through Monday and will likely be a remnant tropical system by the time it pushes back offshore off of the Delmarva Peninsula later Monday. Chantal will then track just southeast of Cape Cod, Massachusetts during the day on Tuesday and then out into the open Atlantic.

The main threat from Chantal will now be heavy rainfall across the Piedmont of North Carolina this afternoon into tonight, including Raleigh-Durham, Fayetteville and Goldsboro. Rain totals of 1 to 4 inches can be expected across the Piedmont of North Carolina, which will lead to the threat of flooding. Elsewhere, rain totals of less than one inch can be expected across central and southern Virginia and eastern North Carolina this afternoon and tonight.

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Elsewhere Across The Atlantic, Caribbean & Gulf: Once Chantal pushes off of the Delmarva Peninsula late Monday, all will turn quiet across the Atlantic, Caribbean and Gulf throughout this coming week & no tropical development is expected.

Turning to next week (week of July 14), some of the model guidance is showing the possibility of some sort of tropical mischief over the northeastern Gulf coast as a frontal boundary stalls out there.

Right now, only the GFS model hints at this possible development during the middle and later parts of next. As for the other model guidance, only 1 or 2 members of both the GFS ensemble and European ensemble model guidance show development. It should be noted that the European ensemble model guidance does show a 15-20 percent chance for development in the northeast Gulf.

For now, this is something to just keep an eye on, just in case & is nothing to be worried or concerned about.

The next tropical weather discussion will be issued on Monday.

Tropical Storm Chantal: Tropical Depression #3 has strengthened into Tropical Storm Chantal this morning.

Satellite imagery and other weather analysis indicates that Chantal is much more organized this morning as compared to what it looked like yesterday. The center of Chantal is located on the western end of the deepest convection with most of the thunderstorm activity occurring to the east of the center. Bursts of new deep thunderstorm activity is occurring as I write this.

Analysis indicates that there is low amounts of wind shear occurring right over the center of Chantal and this means that the environmental conditions are favorable for some additional strengthening the rest of today. It would not surprise me at all to see Chantal peak at 55-60 mph before it comes onshore along the northeastern South Carolina coast by Sunday morning.

Squalls of heavy rain and gusty winds will likely begin affecting the South Carolina and North Carolina coasts by late this afternoon and certainly by tonight. These squalls will then continue through Sunday. Given that most of the squalls are located on the eastern side of the storm, the most robust squalls will likely to affect coastal areas of northeastern South Carolina and all of coastal southeastern and eastern North Carolina throughout tonight and Sunday. Wind gusts of up to 50-60 mph and rainfall totals of 3 to 6 inches can be expected in an area from about Myrtle Beach through all of coastal southeastern North Carolina to the southern parts of the outer banks of North Carolina.

Forecast Impacts:
Wind:

Rainfall:

Storm Surge:

Model Track Forecast:

Satellite Imagery:

The next tropical weather discussion will be issued on Sunday.

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Reconnaissance aircraft investigating the area of disturbed weather located east of the coast of northeast Florida have found a increasingly more organized system. They also have found a system with 30-35 mph maximum winds and because of this, Invest 92-L has been upgraded to Tropical Depression #3.

Additional strengthening is likely and I fully expect to see this system become a tropical storm as soon as later tonight or during the day on Saturday. Once the depression is upgraded to a tropical storm, it’s name will be Chantal.

TD 3 is expected to gradually move north and northwestward during later tonight and during the day on Saturday. TD 3 is expected to come ashore along the coast of South Carolina as a 40-50 mph tropical storm late Saturday night or during Sunday morning.

Even though it will be a tropical storm, the main effects from this system will be heavy rainfall, which will affect the coastal Carolinas throughout Saturday and Sunday. Rainfall totals of up to 2 to 4 inches can be expected across eastern South Carolina and eastern North Carolina.

That said, some 40-50 mph wind gusts can be expected on Saturday night into Sunday morning across coastal parts of northeast South Carolina and parts of coastal southeast and eastern North Carolina.

Next Full Discussion Will Be Sent Out on Saturday.

Invest 92-L Located About 100 Miles Offshore Of The Coast Of Northeast Florida: It looks like we have a developing tropical system off of the northeast Florida coast today. In fact, I think the chances are high that Invest 92-L will be a tropical storm by the time it comes ashore along the South Carolina coast on Sunday.

The shower and thunderstorm activity associated with an area of low pressure located offshore of the northeast Florida coast are becoming more concentrated today. This low pressure system has been designated Invest 92-L by the National Hurricane Center. It will be interesting to see what the hurricane hunters find when they fly in and investigate this system this afternoon.

Analysis of environmental conditions reveals that the wind shear values are marginally favorable for development and strengthening of Invest 92-L. Because of this, I think the ceiling of intensification is pretty low, but I also think that it is likely that it will probably strengthen into a tropical storm probably either later tonight or during the day on Saturday.

A look at the track model guidance indicates that most of the guidance forecast Invest 92-L to come ashore along the South Carolina coastline between about Hilton Head and Charleston on Sunday morning. As for intensity, most of the guidance point to Invest 92-L peaking at somewhere between a 35 mph tropical depression and a 45 mph tropical storm.

I also wanted to mention that the model guidance forecasts that Invest 92-L may reemerge off of the North Carolina or Virginia coastlines on Tuesday and then head northeastward tracking either very near Cape Cod, Massachusetts or offshore of southeastern New England around Wednesday where some of intensity guidance forecasts re-intensification into a tropical storm.

Here Are My Thoughts: I think that it is very likely that Invest 92-L will strengthen to a low-end tropical storm with perhaps 40-45 mph winds probably during the day on Saturday. Given how solid it looks on satellite imagery, I definitely can see how it will become a tropical storm sooner rather than later.

I then expect Invest 92-L to come ashore along the South Carolina coast very near Charleston either during later Saturday night or during Sunday morning as a tropical storm with 40-45 mph winds.

The main threat from this system will be heavy rainfall, first across the Florida Peninsula today and then across the coastal Carolinas throughout Saturday and Sunday.

Additional rainfall amounts of 1 to 3 inches can be expected throughout the rest of today along Florida’s west and southwest coasts, as well as along the I-4 corridor from Tampa through Orlando & also across Florida’s Space Coast.

Turning to the coastal Carolinas, locally heavy rain is expected throughout Saturday and Sunday, especially across northeastern South Carolina and eastern North Carolina where 2 to 4 inches of rain can be expected.

Further north, parts of Southern New England might need to be watched for possible locally heavy rainfall around the middle part of next week as whatever is left of this system passes near or to the east of Southern New England.

Finally, rip currents will be a threat along the coast from eastern and northeastern Florida northward through the coastal Carolinas throughout this weekend.

Model Track Forecast:

Satellite Imagery:

Forecast Additional Rainfall Amounts Today:

Forecast Rainfall Amounts From Saturday Through Monday:

The next tropical weather discussion will be issued on Saturday.