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Significant Coastal Storm Expected This Weekend Across The Carolinas & Mid-Atlantic States: All signs are pointing towards a coastal storm that will impact the Eastern Seaboard from the Carolinas to Southern New England beginning on Saturday and lasting through early next week. This storm looks to bring some significant impacts, including moderate to major coastal flooding, gusty onshore winds and heavy rain to areas including coastal parts of the Carolinas and the Mid-Atlantic States, as well as Long Island and Southern New England.

What looks to occur is that a low pressure system will form just offshore of the South and North Carolina coastlines on Saturday and then move northward near coastal parts of the Mid-Atlantic states during Sunday. From there, this storm system may end up moving close to Long Island and the south coast of New England on Monday before it turns eastward and moves out away from the US East Coast.

It should be noted that this storm system will not be a tropical system at first & likely will begin its life as a non-tropical nor’easter type storm. That being said, there is the possibility that this storm system could transition into a sub-tropical storm system as it interacts with the very warm waters of the Gulf Stream as we get into Sunday and Monday. Should this storm system become a sub-tropical storm, it would get a name & it’s name would be Karen.

Whether this storm system becomes a sub-tropical storm or not, the impacts along the East Coast will be exactly the same.

What Sort Of Impacts Could This Storm Bring? It is very likely that this storm system will bring days of very gusty winds, soaking heavy rainfall, moderate to major coastal flooding, rough surf and beach erosion. These impacts would start in the Carolinas and the Mid-Atlantic states this weekend and then spread northward into Southern New England early next week.

There are some uncertainties to this storm system & this has more to do with how bad will the impacts be. While the surf is very likely to very rough and there will definitely be beach erosion, it’s unclear as to how severe the coastal flooding will be. Also, it’s unclear right now as to how strong the winds will be along the coast and how far inland will these strong winds spread.

Based on what I’m seeing in the model guidance, I would say that moderate to even major coastal flooding could occur this weekend from the North Carolina Outer Banks northward through the Chesapeake to the Jersey Shore. Also, wind gusts of 40 to 60 mph seem most possible right along the coast from the Carolinas northward to Southern New England. Finally, expect a soaking rain with amounts of 2 to 5 inches possible this weekend from eastern North Carolina and eastern Virginia northward to coastal parts of New Jersey.

Those of you along the coastline from the Carolinas northward through the Mid-Atlantic coastline to Long Island and Southern New England should be ready for a long-duration storm that lasts several days. This means that you should expect prolonged coastal flooding that occurs over multiple high-tide cycles, especially for the area from North Carolina Outer Banks to the Jersey Shore & possibly as far north as Long Island and Southern New England. Also, you might want to prepare for a prolonged gusty wind event with wind gusts of up to 40-60 mph, which could cause some damage.

Bottom Line Is That A significant coastal storm looks increasingly very likely to occur this weekend from the Carolinas and points northward to as far as Southern New England.

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Tropical Storm Jerry: Jerry is a sheared tropical storm that actually looked better yesterday than it does right now. The low-level center of the storm is not lined up at all with the deep convection that’s occurring with the storm. Even with this, reconnaissance aircraft have found that the storm has 60 mph maximum winds.

Jerry is moving very quickly to the west-northwest as a high pressure ridge to the north of the storm steers it in this direction. The western end of this high pressure ridge stops at about the longitude of the Lesser Antilles with a weakness in the high pressure ridge found just to the northwest of the Lesser Antilles.

This means that Jerry will begin to turn to the northwest sometime during the day on Thursday and because of this, the center of Jerry should pass only about 60-80 miles to the northeast of the northern Leeward Islands during Thursday evening. Because of this close pass to the northern Leeward Islands, rain squalls and gusty winds will likely affect the Leeward Islands during Thursday into Friday. Of some particular concern are the islands of Antigua, Barbuda, St. Barts, St. Martin and Anguilla where wind gusts of up to 50-60 mph could occur during Thursday night. Finally, Jerry will produce rainfall totals of 2 to 4 inches across much of the Leeward Islands starting on Thursday and lasting into Friday & this could lead to localized flood issues.

As for Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands, Jerry does not pose a direct threat, however, moisture trailing behind Jerry as the storm pulls north will lead to an increased rain threat throughout this weekend.

Finally, Jerry does not pose a threat to Bermuda as the storm is expected to turn to the north and northeast well east of the island.

The next tropical weather discussion will be issued on Thursday.

Tropical Storm Jerry: The disturbance over the central Tropical Atlantic that has been labeled Invest 95-L has become much better organized today with increasing amounts of concentrated convection near a low-level center. Additionally, satellite derived wind data reveals a closed circulation and winds of up to 45 mph. Because of this, the National Hurricane Center has upgraded this system to Tropical Storm Jerry.

A look at the latest model guidance reveals that Jerry will probably strengthen over the next couple of days & it could be a hurricane by the time it tracks very close to the northern Leeward Islands late Thursday into Friday.

The track model guidance are a little eyebrow raising as some of the guidance have trended back towards a path that takes Jerry very, very close to the far northern Leeward Islands. In fact, the Google Deep Mind AI model guidance now shows a track that puts the northern Leeward Islands in line for a direct impact from Jerry Thursday afternoon and Thursday night.

Other track model guidance, including the consensus guidance, still show a path that takes Jerry north of the islands. That said, there is enough uncertainty now in the forecast that says those of you in the Leeward Islands and particularly the northern Leeward need to keep very, very close watch on the forecasts of Jerry. It isn’t going to take a whole lot of a shift in the consensus forecast track to put tropical storm and even hurricane conditions right over the northern Leeward Islands from Antigua and Barbuda northward through Anguilla and St. Martin starting sometime on Thursday and continuing into Friday.

As for the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico – It appears that the outer rain bands from Jerry will affect the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico with squally weather likely starting on Friday and lasting into this weekend.

One thing that is for sure is Jerry will not be a problem at all for the Bahamas or the United States as a strong cold front pushing offshore of the East Coast on Wednesday will kick Jerry out into the open Atlantic.

Model Track Forecast:

Satellite Imagery:

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Weekend Storm System Along The Carolinas & Mid-Atlantic Is Quite Likely: It continues to look rather likely that a storm system will take shape near the coast of the Carolinas by Friday night and Saturday and then move very slowly along the coastlines of the Carolinas and the Mid-Atlantic states throughout this weekend into early next week. This storm has the very real potential to bring heavy rain, gusty onshore winds, rough surf and coastal flooding in the coastal Carolinas and along the Mid-Atlantic coastline.

While it is very likely that this low pressure system will start out as non-tropical in nature, it is possible that it could try to transform into a sub-tropical storm during this weekend, especially if it slowly moves over the waters of the Gulf Stream. This is something that’ll definitely be watched closely.

The impacts from this storm system will be the same, whether it’s a non-tropical or a sub-tropical storm. These impacts will include the coastal Carolinas and the Mid-Atlantic states being hit very hard this weekend by bands of heavy rain, gusty onshore winds gusting up to 50 mph, very rough surf and coastal flooding.

There is quite a bit of uncertainty as to how far north this storm system may move early next week. Some guidance show a far enough north track so that areas from New York City through Long Island and into Southern New England would be impacted by heavy rain, gusty winds and rough surf early next week. Other guidance show no such northward track & keeps all of impacts in the Carolinas and the Mid-Atlantic states as high pressure shields New England from any impacts.

I will continue to keep a close eye on this storm system & will have more updates in the days to come.

The next tropical weather discussion will be issued on Wednesday.

Invest 95-L Located Over The Central Tropical Atlantic: Satellite imagery and weather analysis reveals that Invest 95-L, which is located over the central Tropical Atlantic near 37 West Longitude, is producing a large area of convection. Most of this convection is disorganized, however, it does seem to look a bit better in the way of organization than it did yesterday.

A look at the environmental conditions around Invest 95-L reveals that the conditions aren’t all that favorable for development. The reason for this is due to west-northwesterly wind shear of 15 to 25 knots impacting this system. Additionally, there is dry air found on the western and northwestern sides of Invest 95-L.

A look at the model guidance reveals that many of them have backed off on their forecasts of how strong Invest 95-L might become. A majority of the guidance now seems to show Invest 95-L peaking at either tropical storm or Category 1 hurricane strength. Given the not so favorable environmental conditions that are affecting Invest 95-L, I don’t think we’ll see it become that strong.

At this point, I think that Invest 95-L will probably turn in time to just miss the northern Leeward Islands and northeastern Caribbean and because of this, it’ll be another grazing event for the northeastern Caribbean. Additionally, I do think that Invest 95-L will probably be anywhere between a 40 to 60 mph tropical storm as it passes just to the north of the northern Leeward Islands on Thursday night & it should be just far enough away to not bring tropical storm force winds to the Leeward Islands. That said, some rain squalls from the outer bands of this system could affect the far northern Leeward Islands on Thursday night.

For now though, those of you in the northern Leeward Islands should still keep an eye on Invest 95-L, just in case.

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An East Coast Storm Is Quite Likely For This Weekend: Another area to keep a close eye on is the potential for a storm system to form off of the Southeast coast of the US around Friday night and Saturday. This storm system has the potential to become quite a weather maker along much of the Eastern Seaboard this weekend with heavy rain, gusty onshore winds, rough surf and coastal flooding all possible.

The weather setup leading to the formation of this notable storm system will be the combination of a cold front pushing off of the East Coast on Wednesday, low pressure forming near the Florida Keys and an upper level weather disturbance forming near the southeast coast of the US.

Given that this low pressure system will be moving northeastward and then northward from the tropical waters of the Florida Keys and the northern Bahamas, there is the possibility that it could be a sub-tropical or even a tropical system and this is something that’ll need to be watched closely. In fact, some of the model guidance are pointing to the idea that this storm system could be at least sub-tropical in nature & very possibly an actual tropical storm.

The potential impacts from this system could be fairly significant along the East Coast, whether it becomes a sub-tropical or tropical system or not. The coast of the Carolinas and the Mid-Atlantic states look to be hit very hard once again with gusty onshore winds gusting up to 50 mph, very rough surf and coastal flooding. We have already seen numerous homes get washed away in the Outer Banks as rough seas and erosion from other storms such as Erin, Humerto and Imelda. Another significant coastal storm would be very bad news & unfortunately, even more damage looks likely this weekend along the coastal Carolinas and the Mid-Atlantic.

Some of the impacts from this storm may push northward into areas from New York City through Long Island and into Southern New England by later Sunday and Monday. How significant these impacts are will depend on how far north the low pressure system moves & it is something to keep a close eye on.

I will be keeping a close eye on this potential weekend storm system & will have many more updates in the days to come.

The next tropical weather discussion will be issued on Tuesday.

Low Pressure Located Near South Florida & The Northwestern Bahamas: I continue to keep an eye on a low pressure system that’s located in the area around South Florida & the northwestern Bahamas. Most of the convection that’s occurring with this low pressure system is just to the east of the eastern Bahamas.

A look at the environmental conditions around this low pressure system reveals that the wind shear values are far too strong to support any sort of development. Because of this, I do not expect any sort of development from this low pressure system as it slowly moves in the area from the northwestern Bahamas into South Florida over the next couple of days or so.

Interestingly, the latest ICON model, which did very well with Imelda, forecasts that a tropical storm will form over the southeastern Gulf very near southwest Florida late next week. While both the GFS and European deterministic models do not show this development, there are a couple of ensemble members that do show similar development over the southeastern Gulf late next week. The Google Deep Mind AI model also shows no development in the southeastern Gulf later next week. While I’ll certainly be keeping an eye on whatever low pressure systems that form near South Florida, I think that the development chances are very low.

The meandering low pressure system near South Florida this weekend will produce locally heavy rain across parts of Florida’s East Coast, especially as we get into Sunday, Monday and Tuesday. Areas along Florida’s East Coast from about Port Saint Lucie northward to Daytona looks to receive the heaviest rainfall amounts over the next few days with 2 to 5 inches of rain expected.

In addition, the weather setup over the Bahamas and Florida will likely lead to a persistent onshore wind flow to be in place for the next several days along Florida’s East Coast. Because of this, expect rip currents, rough surf and hazardous marine conditions all along Florida’s East Coast.

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Low Pressure Located Over The North-Central Gulf: Weather analysis reveals that a weak low pressure system has formed over the north-central Gulf. This weather system is producing shower and thunderstorm activity across areas just offshore of the coasts of Louisiana, Mississippi, and Alabama. 

The wind shear over the Gulf is far too strong to support any sort of development and because of this, tropical development is not expected.

This low pressure system will produce locally heavy rainfall across far southeastern parts of Louisiana, coastal Mississippi and coastal Alabama over the next couple of days. Rainfall totals of 2 to 4 inches are possible with even higher amounts offshore.

This low pressure system is anticipated to move onshore along the Texas coast by Monday.

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Tropical Development Continues To Be Possible Over The Central Tropical Atlantic During Next Week: A tropical wave is moving across the far eastern Tropical Atlantic today. This wave is producing a large area of disorganized shower and thunderstorm activity over the eastern Tropical Atlantic.

A look at the environmental conditions over the central and eastern tropical Atlantic reveals that the wind shear values are marginally favorable for development. This is due to strong wind shear found north of 15 North Latitude, but much lower wind shear values south of 15 North Latitude. This means that for this wave to develop, it’ll have to remain at a fairly low latitude. Also, there is dry air found between 35 and 45 West Longitude & this should inhibit any sort of quick development.

Based on my analysis, I think that we’ll probably see slow organization and development of this wave as it heads westward over the next several days. In fact, it’s not out of the realm of possibilities that this wave might wait until it’s west of 50 West Longitude to begin developing.

A look at the most recent model guidance reveals that the GFS model showing development occurring by the middle part of next week once this wave reaches 45 West Longitude. The GFS model then forecasts a very close pass to the northern Leeward Islands as a hurricane late next week.

The Canadian model shows even quicker development beginning near 40 West Longitude on Tuesday. The Canadian model then forecasts this system to miss the Leeward Islands to the east and northeast late next week.

The ICON model forecasts this system to be a monster hurricane and shows it to barely miss the Leeward Islands to the east and northeast late next week as a major hurricane.

Interestingly, the European model forecasts little or no development of this wave even when it gets close to the northern Leeward Islands late next week.

Even though there are a lot of models that do show development of this wave, I’m not quite sold on the idea due to the unfavorable or marginally favorable conditions I’ve already mentioned.

That said, my recommendation for those of you in the Lesser Antilles, Virgin Island and Puerto Rico is to still keep an eye on the progress of this wave. In particular, those of you in the northern Leeward Islands should keep especially close watch of this wave. While I do think tropical development of this wave looks slow to occur, it could still happen once it gets west of 50 West Longitude around Wednesday and Thursday. This means that this wave should reach the Leeward Islands around Friday, whether it develops or not.

The next tropical weather discussion will be issued on Monday.

Low Pressure Will Bring Heavy Rain To Florida’s East Coast This Weekend: Weather analysis today reveals that there is a weak low pressure system located over the central Bahamas. This weather system is currently producing some scattered shower and thunderstorm activity across eastern Florida. This convection is also occurring over the northern and eastern Bahamas, however, all of the convection is very disorganized.

Analysis of environmental conditions reveals that there is strong wind shear occurring over this system & because of this, development into a tropical system looks highly unlikely.

It is expected that this low pressure system will meander in the area around the northern Bahamas and the Florida Peninsula through this weekend. Because of this, it will produce rounds of thunderstorms with heavy rainfall all along Florida’s East Coast throughout this weekend. In addition, this heavy rain looks to persist along Florida’s East Coast right into much of next week, which could exacerbate the flood threat.

All-in-all, rainfall totals of 4 to 8 inches with locally higher amounts can be expected up and down Florida’s East Coast, which will probably lead to urban flood issues.

Additionally, the weather setup over the Bahamas and Florida will likely lead to a persistent onshore wind flow to be in place for the next several days along Florida’s East Coast. Because of this, expect rip currents, rough surf and hazardous marine conditions all along Florida’s East Coast.

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Tropical Development Continues To Be Possible Over The Central Tropical Atlantic As Soon As The First Half Of Next Week: A tropical wave has pushed off of the coast of Africa and is currently located over the far eastern Tropical Atlantic. This wave is producing a large area of convection, however, none of the convection is organized or concentrated.

It is expected that this wave will interact with a surface trough of low pressure that’s located to the northwest of the Cape Verde Islands during this weekend. It is then expected that this entire system should push into the central Tropical Atlantic during the first half of next week & tropical development may become somewhat possible by then.

Even though development is a possibility, it is definitely not a certainty. The reason why is because it appears that the conditions for development are not all that favorable. This includes some dry air over the tropical Atlantic, especially in the region between 35 and 45 West Longitude. Also, the easterly mid-level winds over the tropical Atlantic look rather quick & because of this, our wave might have a hard time trying to consolidate and develop as it will not really be able to vertically align.

All-in-all, while development of this wave looks definitely possible as it heads westward across the tropical Atlantic, I think there’s actually a better chance that it doesn’t develop much at all due to the unfavorable conditions I’ve already mentioned. It’s not out of the realm of possibilities that this disturbance could end up being a “dud” like Invest 99-L from late August.

That being said, my recommendation to those of you in the Lesser Antilles, Virgin Island and Puerto Rico is to keep a close eye on the progress of this wave. While I do think development looks very slow to occur, it is still possible, especially once it gets near the Lesser Antilles late next week.

The next tropical weather discussion will be issued on Saturday.

Low Pressure Expected To Develop Near South Florida Over The Next Couple Of Days: Weather analysis today reveals that there are remains of a frontal system that stretch across the northwestern Bahamas into South Florida. This weather feature is currently producing areas of showers and isolated thunderstorms across the northwestern Bahamas as well as across southeastern Florida. Analysis of radar loops seems to suggest that there may be some sort of mid-level circulation forming near the northwestern Bahamas

I do think that it is possible that we could see a low pressure system form along this old frontal boundary near southeastern Florida over the next couple of days. In fact, some of the model guidance and their ensemble members are pointing to low pressure forming in the area between southeast Florida and the northwestern Bahamas during this weekend before any low pressure system crosses Florida and gets into the eastern Gulf early next week. While these ensemble members do show low pressure forming near southeast Florida, they also point to only a 10-20 percent chance of it developing into a tropical system.

Interestingly though, the 06Z run of the GFS model does show a low-end tropical storm quickly spinning up very near the coast of southeast Florida late Friday into early Saturday. I’m not sure that I buy into this, but it is something that will be watched closely, just in case.

What this remnant frontal boundary and any low pressure systems that form will do is produce a very wet weekend across the eastern coast of Florida. In fact, the next 5-7 days or so could see some very heavy rainfall along Florida’s East Coast. These rainfall totals, which could amount to 5 to 10 inches is probably going to lead to urban flood issues, especially in the area from about Daytona southward to about Fort Lauderdale.

Additionally, this weather setup will also lead to a persistent onshore wind flow to be in place for the next several days along Florida’s East Coast. Because of this, expect rip currents, rough surf and hazardous marine conditions all along Florida’s East Coast.

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Eastern & Central Tropical Atlantic Tropical Development Continues To Be Possible As Soon As Early Next Week: I do think that it is quite possible that we could see tropical development occur somewhere in the area between the Lesser Antilles and the coast of Africa during the first half of next week.

It is expected that a tropical wave will push off of the coast of Africa over the next couple of days or so. This wave will interact with another tropical wave that’s now over the eastern Tropical Atlantic leading to the potential for a tropical system to develop sometime during the first half of next week.

Overall, there is some pretty strong model support for a tropical system to form over the eastern and central Tropical Atlantic next week as conditions look to be favorable for development. In fact, the European ensemble model guidance is showing upwards of a 50-60 percent chance of tropical development by the time this wave reaches about 40 West Longitude during the early part of next week.

A large majoirty of the ensemble guidance members seems to suggest that whatever tropical system forms early next week may end up very near, if not right over the Leeward Islands and the northeastern Caribbean around Thursday or so of next week. That said, there is a second cluster of ensemble members that forecast this system to track a little further south and cross the northern Windward Islands instead later next week & then track northwestward towards Puerto Rico and Hispaniola next weekend. Beyond this, most, if not all, of the ensemble guidance members show a curve to the north and northeast away from the Bahamas and the United States.

Here Are My Thoughts: Given everything that I’ve looked at today, I think that there is a decent chance that we will probably see a depression and very probably a tropical storm form by the time that tropical wave reaches about 40-45 West Longitude around the early part of next week. Additional development and strengthening is then quite possible as this system pushes towards the Lesser Antilles for later next week.

This means that those of you in the Lesser Antilles, the Virgin Islands, Puerto Rico and Hispaniola should closely monitor the progress of this wave. Given the current data, this system should probably affect the Lesser Antilles around Thursday of next week & then affect the Virgin Islands, Puerto Rico and Hispaniola around Friday and Saturday of next week. How strong might it be? That’s a big unknown right now, but I wouldn’t at all be surprised to see this be a tropical storm impact for the Lesser Antilles, Virgin Islands, Puerto Rico and Hispaniola.

It goes without saying that I will be keeping a very close eye on this particular wave & will have many, many more updates for you in the coming days.

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Western Caribbean Tropical Development Is A Possibility Around The Middle Part Of This Month: I really think that we are going to have to keep very close tabs on the western and northwestern Caribbean for potential tropical development around the middle part of this month.

While the model guidance aren’t quite showing a significant signal for development as of yet (there are hints in the guidance though), I think that the conditions could be quite favorable for development. It is expected that a Central American Gyre feature will develop by mid-month, which would probably lead to slow, but gradual tropical development over the western and northwestern Caribbean.

In addition, the environmental conditions, including both the wind shear values and thermodynamic setup, looks to be very favorable for development in the western half of the Caribbean during this time frame. Because of this, I do have quite a bit of concern that we will very probably see a tropical system pop in the western Caribbean during the mid-month period (around October 15-20 or so).

Also, it also looks possible that we could have an upper level trough in place over the eastern half of the United States around that time frame. If this occurs, then whatever forms in the western and northwestern Caribbean would be pulled north and northeastward towards the eastern Gulf, Florida, the Bahamas and the East Coast of the United States.

Needless to say, this setup for possible western Caribbean tropical development is something that I will be keeping a very close eye on. I will have more updates on this as needed.

The next tropical weather discussion will be issued on Friday.

Hurricane Imelda: Imelda is strengthening today as it heads for Bermuda. Reconnaissance aircraft are finding a central barometric pressure of about 966 millibars and maximum winds of around 100 mph. The net wind shear over Imelda right now is very low due to the fact that it is moving in the same direction as the mid and upper level winds. Because of this, additional strengthening is likely & because of this, Imelda could be very near or at Category 3 intensity when it passes over Bermuda tonight. This means that those of you on the island of Bermuda need to be ready for a decent blow with wind gusts of well over 100 mph possible tonight.

Once Imelda passes over Bermuda tonight, it’ll likely become captured by an upper level trough of low pressure over the North Atlantic. Because of this, it’ll transition into an extra-tropical storm as it moves northeastward into the open Atlantic late this week through this weekend.

Forecast Impacts For Bermuda: A direct impact from a Category 2 to Category 3 hurricane is fully expected on the island of Bermuda tonight.

This means that tropical storm force winds will develop on Bermuda this afternoon. Hurricane conditions with wind gusts of well over 100 mph (maybe approaching 110-120 mph) can be expected tonight.

In addition to the very strong winds, heavy rain with amounts of 2 to 4 inches can be expected during this afternoon, tonight and Thursday morning. This rain could lead to areas of flash flooding across the island.

Coastal flooding with large and damaging waves are also expected across Bermuda this afternoon, tonight and Thursday morning.

Finally, it should be noted that Imelda is moving quickly and because of this, much calmer weather conditions will overspread Bermuda as soon as midday Thursday. All-in-all though, I think that we’re looking at extremely rough weather conditions for 8 to 12 hours or so across Bermuda.

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Eastern & Central Tropical Atlantic Tropical Development Is A Possibility Next Week: It continues to look possible that we could see tropical development in the area between the coast of Africa and the Lesser Antilles during next week thanks to a tropical wave, which is expected to push off of the coast of Africa in a couple of days from now.

Some of the model guidance and their ensemble members continue to point to this possibility. In fact, most of the ensemble members (both GFS and European model) that do show development indicate a track that could threaten the Lesser Antilles and the eastern Caribbean around Wednesday and Thursday of next week. Beyond this, the ensemble members then suggest any tropical system could be pulled northward into the open Atlantic away from the Bahamas and the United States.

As for the AI models, the Google Deep Mind AI ensemble model seems to be indicating a quicker turn to the north before it reaches the Lesser Antilles leading to no impacts at all.

At this point, I think that the best thing to do is to just keep an eye on this tropical wave once it pushes off of the coast of Africa on Friday. The good news is that we have plenty of time to keep an eye on it & because of this, it’s nothing to be overly concerned or worried about if you are in the Leeward Islands or the northeastern Caribbean.

The next tropical weather discussion will be issued on Thursday.

Hurricane Imelda: We are seeing a true Atlantic Fujiwhara interaction occur today between Humberto and Imelda and this is something that you do not see very often. The analysis of both hurricanes show that they seem to be imparting wind shear on each other. With a much weaker Humberto now, it seems that Imelda may end up absorbing part of the circulation of Humberto over the next few days.

Back to Imelda, reconnaissance aircraft have found that the storm has a central barometric pressure of between 980-982 millibars. In addition, peak winds measured by reconnaissance aircraft, are around 75 mph. Because of this, Imelda is now a hurricane.

Imelda is now heading towards the northeast and it is expected that this northeast to east-northeast track will continue for the next few days. It is expected that the relative wind shear over Imelda will fall to very low levels by tomorrow as the hurricane will be moving in the same direction as the upper level winds. Because of this, fairly quick strengthening of Imelda is likely & because of this, the hurricane may be about a Category 2 strength when it passes right over Bermuda on Wednesday night.

Forecast Impacts For Bermuda: A direct hurricane impact from Imelda is expected on the island of Bermuda on Wednesday night as it appears quite possible that the eye of the hurricane will pass right over the island.

This means that tropical storm conditions will develop on Bermuda during Wednesday afternoon. Hurricane conditions with wind gusts of over 100 mph can be expected during Wednesday night with these conditions persisting into part of Thursday morning. Weather conditions will then rapidly improve by late Thursday.

Model Track Forecast:

Satellite Imagery:

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Locally Heavy Rain Possible Along The Northern Gulf Coast During This Weekend: Things “might” get a little interesting over the northern Gulf this weekend as some energy from the two hurricanes break off and rotate westward into the Gulf by later this week. This piece of energy is then expected to push northward reaching the northern Gulf during this weekend & is likely to produce locally heavy rain across much of the northern Gulf Coast throughout this weekend.

One thing to note is that there are a few ensemble members of both the GFS model and the European model that do show a low pressure system forming over the northern Gulf at some point this weekend. At this point though, the ensemble guidance only show a 10 percent chance of tropical development, probably due to the presence of lots of dry air in the western Gulf, which could inhibit any sort of development of any low pressure system that forms.

Either way though, rain seems likely to occur this weekend across immediate coastal areas of southeastern Louisiana, southern Mississippi, southern Alabama and the Florida Panhandle. While it seems possible that a majority of heavy rain may stay offshore, 1 to 4 inches of rain is a possibility across these areas this weekend.

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Could There Be Tropical Development Over The Eastern & Central Tropical Atlantic Next Week?: Some of the deterministic and ensemble members of the GFS, European and Google Deep Mind AI models are showing the possibility of a tropical wave that looks to push off of the coast of Africa on Friday to develop as it heads westward across the eastern and central tropical Atlantic next week.

At this point, there are a few members of both the GFS and European ensemble model that show this possible development. Most members that do show development forecast it to reach the area near the northern Leeward Islands around next Thursday and next Friday. It should be pointed out that the European ensemble model guidance does show about a 30 percent chance of tropical development next week over the eastern and central Tropical Atlantic.

For now, this is just something to keep an eye on, but at this point, I don’t think that it’s anything to be overly concerned or worried about if you are in the Leeward Islands or the northeastern Caribbean.

The next tropical weather discussion will be issued on Wednesday.

Tropical Storm Imelda: Imelda seems to be gradually becoming better organized today with satellite imagery showing deep convection occurring very near the center of circulation, which is located right over Abaco Island in the northwestern Bahamas. Additionally, reconnaissance aircraft investigation Imelda have found that the central barometric pressure has fallen to 994 millibars with maximum winds in the 45-50 mph range.

Imelda is moving slowly towards the north & it is expected that this northward track will continue throughout the rest of today and tonight. During Tuesday, Hurricane Humberto, which is located to the east of Imelda, is expected to break down the high pressure ridge causing Imelda to turn abruptly to the east-northeast. This east-northeasterly track is then expected to continue through the middle and later parts of this week.

This means that it is all but guaranteed that Imelda will stay well offshore of the US Southeast Coast. This also means that Imelda is now expected to directly impact the island of Bermuda as a Category 1 or 2 hurricane on Wednesday night into Thursday morning.

Forecast Impacts:
For The Northwestern Bahamas: Squally weather with occasional wind gusts of up to tropical storm force are expected across the northwestern Bahamas throughout the rest of today. Conditions will then improve as we get into Tuesday.

For Florida’s East Coast: The circulation on the western side of Imelda is likely to continue to produce gusty northerly winds throughout the day today along Florida’s East Coast from about Daytona Beach southward through Vero Beach and Stuart. These winds will diminish as we get into tonight and especially on Tuesday.

Coastal Parts Of South Carolina & North Carolina: Some additional rain, which will be locally heavy at times, is expected across coastal parts of South Carolina and southeastern North Carolina throughout today, tonight and Tuesday. Additional rainfall amounts of up to one more inch can be expected in some areas. Weather conditions are likely to improve as we get into Tuesday night and especially Wednesday.

Bermuda: A direct hurricane impact from Imelda is expected on the island of Bermuda on Wednesday night as it appears quite possible that the eye of the hurricane will pass right over the island. This means that tropical storm conditions will develop on Bermuda during Wednesday afternoon. Hurricane conditions with wind gusts of about 100 mph look likely on Wednesday night into Thursday morning. Weather conditions then will rapidly improve by late Thursday and especially Friday.

It should be noted that this is in addition to the tropical storm conditions that are expected on Bermuda from the outer bands from Humberto. These tropical storm conditions are expected during tonight and Tuesday.

Model Track Forecast:

Satellite Imagery:

The next tropical weather discussion will be issued on Tuesday.

Tropical Depression #9 (Future Imelda): It is looking much more likely today that Future Imelda will turn sharply to the east as we get into Monday and Tuesday and thus head away from the Southeastern United States. This is, obviously, great news for the Carolinas as the impacts from the storm will be much, much less than what was anticipated even a day or two ago.

TD 9 is still disorganized with the center of circulation located just south of Andros Island in the Bahamas & convection extending northward from there towards the Carolinas. To the east of TD 9 is Category 4 Hurricane Humberto, which is expected to close the distance from TD 9 over the next 24 hours and become a big influence on where the depression will track throughout this coming week. It should be noted that Humberto peaked at a 160 mph Category 5 hurricane yesterday & the size and strength of Humberto will have quite a huge influence on pulling TD 9 sharply to the east.

There has been a delay in how quickly TD 9 is organizing and this has caused the depression to not move as quickly to the north as what was expected. Because of this, it is missing the window for it to link up with the upper level low pressure system over the Southeastern United States, which would have pulled it inland into the Carolinas.

Instead, what looks to occur is that the upper level low pressure system will weaken by Tuesday and large and powerful Humberto will become the main influence in where TD 9 will track. This should cause TD 9 to turn sharply to the east right off of the northeast Florida or east-central Florida coast as we get into Tuesday and Wednesday. From there, it seems plausible now that Future Imelda will track towards Bermuda & potentially impact the island later this week. This is what a majority of the ensemble members are now showing – a quick movement to the east-northeast towards Bermuda & then out into the open Atlantic.

That said, there are a few ensemble members of the European model that do show TD 9 getting left behind by Humberto & languishing just offshore of the Carolina and Mid-Atlantic coastline later this week through next weekend. For now, this is not expected as most indicators seem to point towards a quick exit to the east-northeast. That said, this is something that’ll be watched, just in case.

Forecast Impacts:
As for Florida’s East Coast – Any tropical storm force sustained winds will very likely stay well offshore of the east coast of Florida as TD 9 (Future Imelda) tracks to northwest and parallels Florida’s East Coast over the next couple of days. Instead, I think that we’ll see occasional heavy showers that’ll affect the immediate coast of the Treasure Coast and Space Coast of Florida mostly during the day on Monday. Some of these showers may produce wind gusts of up to 40 mph in squalls. Overall, not a big deal at all. These squally conditions will quickly come to an end by Tuesday morning.

As for the Carolinas – Even though TD 9 is now expected to remain far to the south of the Carolinas, heavy rain still looks to be a threat as the moisture from TD 9 interacts with a stationary front in the area.

This means that rainfall totals of 2 to 5 inches can be expected along the immediate South Carolina coast as well as along the immediate coast of southeastern North Carolina from today through Wednesday. This rain will lead to scattered areas of flash flooding. In addition, gusty winds in squalls, rough surf and beach erosion can be expected along the entire coasts of South Carolina and North Carolina over the next 2-3 days.

For Bermuda – Direct impacts from Future Imelda are a possibility late this coming week should this system head directly to the east-northeast. This means that heavy rain, tropical storm to hurricane force winds and extremely rough seas are a distinct possibility around Thursday and Friday. It’s definitely something to watch closely, if you are on the island of Bermuda.

Imelda’s rich plume of tropical air will collide with a stalled front along the coastal Carolinas Monday and Tuesday, bringing the threat of several days of heavy rainfall and scattered flash flooding ahead of the storm along the coastal plains of the Carolinas from Charleston, South Carolina, to Wilmington and Morehead City in North Carolina. Rainfall totals should generally stay in the 3- to 5-inch range for these areas.

Model Track Forecast:

Satellite Imagery:

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Looking Beyond Humberto & TD 9 (Imelda): Unfortunately, we are still not done with the hurricane once Humberto and Imelda exit stage right late this coming week. In fact, I still think that we’re going to be tracking tropical systems through the month of October and very probably well into November.

The latest European weekly models is pointing to the possibility of a brief break in activity during the week of October 6.

Beyond this, the European weekly models seem to suggest activity will pick up big time starting during the week of October 13 in the area that includes the Gulf, the northwestern Caribbean and the southwestern North Atlantic. This includes the Yucatan, Cuba, the north-central and northeast Gulf Coast, Florida & the Southeastern US coast, the Bahamas and Bermuda. This very active tropical activity may then continue through the week of October 20.

In fact, the European weekly model is forecasting 140 percent of normal activity during the week of October 13 and 160 percent of normal activity during the week of October 20.

So, unfortunately, I think that we’re looking at yet another year with a lot of tropical storm and hurricane season late in the hurricane season.

This is something that I will be keeping a close eye on and will have updates as needed.

The next tropical weather discussion will be issued on Monday.