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Hurricane Erin: Moderate amounts of wind shear combined with dry air has taken a big bite out of Erin today. Reconnaissance aircraft have found that the hurricane has weakened to about Category 2 strength. Additionally, satellite imagery indicates that most of the deeper convection is occurring on the eastern side of the hurricane with the western side void of convection.

Even though Erin is weaker today, it will mean very little for the East Coast of the United States and the Outer Banks of North Carolina.

It seems likely now that Erin will continue heading on a northwestward track the rest of today and then turn towards the north during Wednesday. A turn to the northeast is then expected on Thursday. This will lead Erin to pass about 150-175 miles offshore of the North Carolina Outer Banks on Wednesday night into Thursday.

As for the forecast strength of Erin over the next few days – This is something that is a little more uncertain. The reason why is because given the way it looks right now with dry air wrapping into the storm on its western side, any new rounds of strengthening are going to take some time to complete.

It’s possible that there could be some strengthening for a time from late tonight through Wednesday into Thursday as Erin begins to accelerate to the north and then northeast. I highly doubt it will reach the strength it was just a couple of days ago, but some modest strengthening seems possible.

For The East Coast Of The United States & Particularly The North Carolina Outer Banks: Erin is pretty likely to pass close enough to the Outer Banks of North Carolina as we get into Wednesday and Thursday to bring the Outer Banks and Pamlico Sound tropical storm force winds with wind gusts of up to 50 mph possible and bands of heavy showers. Most of the tropical storm conditions can be expected to occur during Wednesday night and Thursday.

In addition to this, large waves, rip currents and moderate to major coastal flooding will significantly impact the Outer Banks and Pamlico Sound starting later today and continuing through Wednesday and Thursday. Extensive damage to the beaches is likely with Highway 12 likely going underwater by several feet. Additionally, soundside flooding looks likely on Thursday due to persistent northerly gusty winds.

Mandatory evacuations remain in effect for Zone A on Hatteras Island for both visitors and residents.

Elsewhere along the East Coast of the United States, a very serious threat of very large waves, extremely rough surf, extremely dangerous rip currents and the threat for some coastal flooding exists throughout the rest of this week. The worst days look to be today, Wednesday and Thursday along the Southeast and Mid-Atlantic coasts and the worst days along the Northeastern coast of the United States looks to be late Wednesday, Thursday, Friday and even Saturday. I cannot emphasize enough that the extremely rough surf and extremely dangerous rip current threat is going to make it deadly to go swimming & you may lose your life doing so.

Finally, it still looks fairly likely that Erin will pass far enough offshore of Cape Cod and Nantucket to not bring tropical storm conditions. That said, this is something that will be watched closely as there are some indications that suggest some tropical storm force winds may occur on Nantucket on Thursday night into Friday.

Forecast Impacts:
Wind:

Rainfall:

Storm Surge:

For Bermuda: It continues to look very likely that Erin will pass far enough west of Bermuda to not be a direct impact. The very large size of Erin could lead to some of the outer bands of rain to affect the island on Wednesday and Thursday.

For Atlantic Canada: Erin is very likely to pass well south of Nova Scotia and Newfoundland to not be a threat in terms of wind or rain. The main threat from Erin for Atlantic Canada looks to be very large waves, rough surf and rip currents late this week through this weekend.

Model Track Forecast:

Satellite Imagery:

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Tropical Wave Located Over The Central Tropical Atlantic & Invest 99-L Located Over The Eastern Tropical Atlantic: There are two tropical waves over the central and eastern tropical Atlantic. The wave over the central tropical Atlantic near about 45 West Longitude looks very disorganized and strung out. The new wave, now designated Invest 99-L, located behind this wave is located over the eastern tropical Atlantic near about 25 West Longitude looks far more impressive with deep convection noted with the wave.

It appears that Invest 99-L is likely to weaken as it encounters more unfavorable environmental conditions near the end of this week.

At the same time this is occurring, the wave located over the central tropical Atlantic is anticipated to become more organized as it approaches the Lesser Antilles. As it does this, it looks increasingly more likely that it will begin to be pulled into a large void left behind by Erin. This will cause this wave to turn northwestward as it reaches the Leeward Islands on Friday.

While there is a ribbon of favorable environmental conditions just east of the islands, it is quite narrow and because of this, I am not anticipating to see robust strengthening from the wave over the central Tropical Atlantic. This means that, at most, this wave could strengthen into a depression and maybe a low-end tropical storm by the time it reaches the Leeward Islands on Friday.

This means that those of you in the Leeward Islands and the Virgin Islands will probably see squally weather beginning on Thursday night and continuing through Friday. There is the possibility that there could be wind gusts of tropical storm force should this wave strengthen.

Looking beyond this, it appears that Erin will leave a large upper level trough in its wake & this should cause this wave to curve to the north and northeast into the open Atlantic after impacting the northeastern Caribbean. There are no guidance members that now show any sort of threat to the Bahamas, the United States or much of the Caribbean.

Now back to Invest 99-L, the wave that is located over the far eastern Tropical Atlantic – As I already mentioned, it seems quite possible that it will weaken and fall apart by later this week as it encounters a more unfavorable environment.

That said, even if it falls apart and stays weak, it’ll still head westward and may end up sneaking under the radar. Because of this, it’s probably going to eventually find itself in the Caribbean in about 10 days or so from now. It should be noted that none of the ensemble guidance show any sort of renewed organization or development from this system in the Caribbean, so more than likely this is nothing to worry about. That said, it is something that will be watched, just in case.

The next tropical weather discussion will be issued on Wednesday.

Hurricane Erin: Erin underwent another round of strengthening last night into early this morning & the hurricane is a 140 mph Category 4 hurricane at the time of this writing. The reason for this strengthening seems to have to do with favorable wind shear conditions and ocean water temperatures that are extremely favorable for strengthening.

It seems now that the hurricane has taken a pause in its strengthening as reconnaissance aircraft are reporting that the eye wall is open on the western side & the pressure falls have stopped & are now in a steady-state condition.

Additionally, Erin is now growing in size & it is expected that Erin will grow even more in size over the next couple of days. This means that even though Erin is expected to pass offshore of the North Carolina Outer Banks late Wednesday into Thursday, the wind field will be so large that it’ll still bring tropical storm force winds to the Outer Banks.

The current forward motion of Erin continues to be problematic as it remains on a roughly west-northwest heading. My calculations are that the heading direction is roughly around a 290 degree heading. This has led to guidance to shift even further west in their forecast tracks putting the hurricane even closer to the eastern Bahamas and the North Carolina Outer Banks.

Looking at the track model guidance, the consensus is showing the eye of Erin making it as far west as 73.5 West Longitude before it turns to the northeast. The ICON model, which has been the lead in showing how far west Erin may track, now shows the hurricane making it as far west as 74.4 West Longitude on Wednesday. In fact, the ICON model is showing the hurricane being a Category 5 hurricane when it reaches its furthest west position. The European model also seems to suggest that Erin will be a Category 5 hurricane again as we get into Tuesday and the early part of Wednesday.

One last thing, it should be noted that in comparing where Erin is currently located against where the 12Z track guidance consensus is forecasting where Erin is going reveals that the hurricane continues to track to the south and west of the model guidance. This continues to raise the concern for the eastern Bahamas and then the North Carolina Outer Banks.

Here Are My Thoughts: Erin is going to turn to the north and north, right??? I mean how far west is Erin going to track before it finally makes that much forecast turn to the north.

Now, I fully expect that Erin will make that turn to the northwest and north within the next 36 hours or so, I do think that Erin may make it as far west as 75 West Longitude when it reaches about the 30 North Latitude line during the day on Wednesday. By late Wednesday and Thursday, the hurricane will turn to the northeast.

This means that it is looking more and more likely that Erin will get close enough to bring tropical storm conditions to the eastern Bahamas through Tuesday. Additionally, I think that Erin is probably going to track close enough to the North Carolina Outer Banks (about 100-150 miles or so offshore) to bring them tropical storm conditions & bands of gusty showers from late Wednesday through Wednesday night and Thursday and into Thursday night.

For Those Of You In The Bahamas: Squally weather with tropical storm conditions are expected to continue across the southeastern Bahamas and the Turks and Caicos Islands this afternoon and tonight.

Tropical storm conditions with bands of heavy showers will affect much of the eastern Bahamas by tonight and last through Tuesday.

For The East Coast Of The United States & Particularly The North Carolina Outer Banks: Erin is pretty likely to pass close enough to the Outer Banks of North Carolina as we get into Wednesday and Thursday to bring the Outer Banks tropical storm force winds with wind gusts of up to 50 mph possible and bands of heavy showers. Most of the tropical storm conditions can be expected to occur during Wednesday night and Thursday.

The much, much bigger threat for the Outer Banks are going to be the large waves, rip currents and coastal flooding that will affect you from late Tuesday until sometime on Thursday. This is going to be a prolonged event that lasts several high tide cycles and because of this, travel along NC-12 on Hatteras and Ocracoke Islands will be impossible. Because of this, a mandatory evacuation is in effect for Zone A on Hatteras Island for both visitors and residents.

Elsewhere along the East Coast of the United States, a very serious threat of very large waves, extremely rough surf, extremely dangerous rip currents and the threat for some coastal flooding exists throughout this week. The worst days look to be on Tuesday, Wednesday and Thursday along the Southeast and Mid-Atlantic coasts and the worst days along the Northeastern coast of the United States looks to be late Wednesday, Thursday, Friday and even Saturday. I cannot emphasize enough that the extremely rough surf and extremely dangerous rip current threat is going to make it deadly to go swimming & you may lose your life doing so.

Finally, it does look fairly likely that Erin will pass far enough offshore of Cape Cod and Nantucket to not bring tropical storm conditions. That said, this is something that will be watched closely as some guidance seem to suggest that some tropical storm force winds may occur on the outer Cape and on Nantucket on Thursday night into Friday.

For Bermuda: It continues to look very likely that Erin will pass far enough west of Bermuda to not be a direct impact. The very large size of Erin could lead to some of the outer bands of rain to affect the island on Wednesday and Thursday.

Model Track Forecast:

Satellite Imagery:

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Area Of Disturbed Weather Located Over The Eastern Atlantic: Erin is not the only game in town as we are also closely watching the progress of a tropical wave now located over the eastern tropical Atlantic. This wave has the very real potential to develop over the next few days & looks to affect the Lesser Antilles at the end of this week.

Satellite imagery today reveals that the convection around this wave is disorganized, however, it seems that the convection is consolidating quite far to the south, near about 7-8 North Latitude. If this is where we see this system actually form, it could lead to big problems down the road. Also, the model guidance might be way too far north with where they develop this system, should this wave develop south of 10 North Latitude. I will be very interested to see what future model runs look like with this system.

Anyways, it is expected that this wave will head in a west to west-northwest direction over the next several days & I suspect it will be located in the vicinity of the Lesser Antilles around Friday or so. It would not surprise me to see this system be a tropical storm at that point & those of you in the Lesser Antilles and the eastern Caribbean should keep close tabs on the progress of this wave, in case it does develop into a tropical storm.

Looking beyond this, the model guidance are all over the place on what they want to do with this wave & where it ultimately tracks.

For instance, the European ensemble model guidance has shifted westward with its forecast tracks with a cluster of members from the northernmost Caribbean to the Bahamas by next Monday and another cluster of members showing a track taking it out into the open Atlantic.

The GFS ensemble guidance are even more dispersive with their members with a range from a Gulf track to a track out into the open Atlantic.

My take on this is that it is far, far too early to make any definitive statements as to where this wave will go and how much it might strengthen.

On one hand, if this wave stays weak and remains at a low latitude, it could sneak towards the Caribbean where it might find more favorable conditions for development.

On the other hand, should we see quick and robust development and strengthening this week, it would probably be pulled northward into Erin’s wake and not be a threat.

My gut feeling on this is that we will probably see quite slow development from this wave and thus it’ll probably head in a general westward track reaching the eastern Caribbean at the end of this week and early this weekend. The reason why I think this is because Erin’s outflow is likely to impart quite a bit of wind shear onto it leading to it to not really develop much.

My recommendation though for those of you in the Lesser Antilles and the eastern Caribbean is to monitor this wave extremely closely throughout this week and be aware that it could be a depression or even a tropical storm by the time it reaches the islands of the eastern Caribbean on about Friday.

Beyond this, it is way, way too early to speculate where this system might go after it reaches the area around the Lesser Antilles.

As I mentioned yesterday, the weather pattern by this weekend is expected to consist of a high pressure ridge to the north of this wave that could extend fairly far west. Should this high pressure ridge remain stout & not relent and weaken, it could guide this system quite far to the west in longitude.

That said, there is the possibility of an upper level trough of low pressure to dive into the eastern United States by around the early part of next week. Depending on where exactly this system is located, the trough could be strong enough to pull it north and northeastward and guide it away from the United States.

Now, if this wave stays very far south in latitude, that trough of low pressure could miss it thus causing this system to become a threat to the East Coast of the United States or even the Gulf Coast.

As I already mentioned, the model guidance are of little use this far out in time as they have many different scenarios with each new forecast run, ranging from a Gulf threat all the way to a path that takes it safely out into the open Atlantic.

My recommendation to you is that you should monitor the progress of this wave in the coming days. For now though, it is of nothing to be overly concerned or worried about.

The next tropical weather discussion will be issued on Tuesday.

Major Hurricane Erin: It appears that Erin has been undergoing an eye wall replacement cycle since late yesterday where the original eye collapses & a new eye then forms and begins to contract. This process leads to a hurricane that does weaken for a while, but also then has a larger eye and a larger and more expansive wind field.

This means that Erin’s eye is no longer visible on satellite imagery and it seems that Erin has weakened to a Category 3 hurricane. We probably will end up seeing a new round of strengthening later today and especially tonight once Erin reorganizes itself from the eye wall replacement.

Erin seems to be heading in a west-northwesterly direction today and the ultimate track of the hurricane is going to hinge on how quickly it turns to the northwest and then to the north. The weather feature that looks to facilitate this turn is a weakness in the high pressure ridge that can now be seen in weather analysis and water vapor satellite imagery.

While the track model guidance with Erin are in good agreement in showing the hurricane making that turn to the north, they do still disagree on how quickly this turn will occur & thus how close Erin gets to the Bahamas and the North Carolina Outer Banks. It should be noted that the track guidance has been continually shifting westward in their forecasts of Erin & this has raised my concern slightly for the eastern Bahamas and the North Carolina Outer Banks. I do want to emphasize though that there are no models at all that are forecasting a direct hit on the Bahamas or the East Coast of the United States. Instead, some of the guidance are showing a close brush.

Here Are My Thoughts: As I just mentioned, the big question continues to be when and where will Erin make that turn to the northwest and north.

So, while I definitely expect Erin to make that turn to the northwest sometime on Monday and then to the north by late Tuesday and Wednesday, it looks quite possible that Erin could get to about 73 West Longitude before it begins to turn out to the northeast on Thursday.

This means that it appears that Erin will track close enough to the eastern Bahamas to probably bring them tropical storm conditions on Monday into Tuesday. I then think that Erin could track close enough to the North Carolina Outer Banks (about 150 miles or so offshore) to bring them tropical storm conditions & bands of gusty showers on Thursday.

For Those Of You In The Bahamas: It looks quite plausible that the Turks and Caicos Islands will be affected by tropical storm conditions this afternoon and tonight. This will include bands of heavy showers and some gusty winds of tropical storm force.

The Eastern Bahamas probably will see tropical storm conditions during Monday that lasts into Tuesday. This will include bands of heavy showers and tropical storm force winds at times.

For The East Coast Of The United States & Particularly The North Carolina Outer Banks: First things first, ignore the clickbait on social media, Erin IS NOT going to directly strike the East Coast of the United States. It is, however, expected to pass just offshore of the US East Coast, close enough to the North Carolina Outer Banks to perhaps bring tropical storm conditions there during the day on Thursday.

The much bigger threat to the entire Eastern Seaboard of the United States is going to be the very large waves that’ll be impacted the shore throughout this coming week. I strongly urge anyone planning on visiting the beach or going swimming from Florida all the way northward to New England to not go swimming at all. The extremely rough surf and extremely dangerous rip current threat will make it extremely unsafe to go swimming & you will be risking your life doing so.

As I just mentioned, the outer bands of Erin may make it as far west as the Outer Banks of North Carolina on Thursday leading to the possibility of gusty and squally showers that produce winds of up to tropical storm force at times. My recommendation to those of you in eastern North Carolina and especially the Outer Banks is to continue keeping a very close watch on the progress of Erin.

Further north, it does look very likely that Erin will pass far enough offshore of Cape Cod and Nantucket to not be a threat in terms of tropical storm conditions. The much, much bigger threat to the New England coastline will be the large waves, very rough surf and extremely dangerous rip current threat.

For Bermuda: It continues to look very likely that Erin will pass far enough west of Bermuda to not be a direct impact. The very large size of Erin could lead to some of the outer bands of rain to affect the island on Wednesday and Thursday.

Model Track Forecast:

Satellite Imagery:

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Area Of Disturbed Weather Located Over The Eastern Atlantic: There is a tropical wave located over the far eastern Atlantic that will need to be watched throughout this upcoming week as it heads westward.

Satellite imagery today reveals that the convection associated with the wave is quite disorganized. Analysis reveals that the environmental conditions are marginal, at best, for development west of 30 West Longitude. These marginally favorable conditions across the tropical Atlantic last until about the eastern Caribbean. A lot of this stronger wind shear is due to the outflow from Hurricane Erin.

This means that I do think that this wave will struggle to develop as it heads westward, but once Erin begins to lift to the north and northeast during the second half of this week, the conditions across the tropical Atlantic should become more favorable, just as this wave is approaching the Lesser Antilles.

My take is that I think that this wave may become a depression around Thursday or Friday as it reaches about 55 West Longitude. Also, I think we are looking at a wave that tracks further west across the Atlantic than Erin ever did. The reason why I think this is because the more it struggles & refuses to really develop, the more it’ll track with the lower level winds & not be picked up by a weakness in the high pressure ridge left behind by Erin.

My recommendation for those of you in the Lesser Antilles and the eastern Caribbean is to monitor this wave extremely closely during this upcoming week and be aware that it could be a depression or even a tropical storm by the time it reaches the islands of the eastern Caribbean around Thursday into Friday.

Beyond this, it is way, way too early to speculate where this system might go after it reaches the area around the Lesser Antilles.

The weather pattern by next weekend may consist of a high pressure ridge to the north of this wave that could extend fairly far west. Should this high pressure ridge remain stout & not relent and weaken, it could guide this system quite far to the west. That said, there is the possibility of an upper level trough of low pressure to dive into the eastern United States by around the August 24-26 time frame. It’s possible that this trough could be strong enough to pull this system north and northeastward and guide it away from the United States. It’s just as equally possible that the trough will miss this system causing it to become a threat to the Southeast coast of the US or the Gulf coast.

The model guidance are of little use this far out in time as they have many different scenarios with each new forecast run, ranging from a Gulf threat all the way to a path that takes it safely out into the open Atlantic.

My recommendation to you is that you should monitor the progress of this wave in the coming days. For now though, it is of nothing to be overly concerned or worried about.

The next tropical weather discussion will be issued on Sunday.

Major Hurricane Erin: Erin has undergone extremely rapid strengthening last night into this morning, going from a 75 mph Category 1 hurricane to now a 160 mph Category 5 hurricane at the time of this writing.

Reconnaissance aircraft have found the hurricane is rapidly strengthening with central barometric pressure falls of nearly 8 millibars per hour. The last recon pass found that Erin has a central barometric pressure of 917 millibars and maximum winds of 160 mph.

Erin’s constant and steady nearly due west track is a bit concerning as the further west it gets in longitude, the closer it will be to the Bahamas and the East Coast of the United States (especially the North Carolina Outer Banks) when it curves to the north and northeast. This due west motion by the hurricane is something that will be watched extremely closely. I will have more, including my thoughts, later on in this discussion.

Model Guidance: Erin is currently tracking to the south of all of the European ensemble and GFS ensemble guidance members. The reason why the model guidance tracks are further north than what Erin is actually moving is due to how strong it has become. This is a factor in the forecast that is going to need to be watched very, very closely.

Looking at the model guidance reveals that the more eastward track of the GFS model is due to the model forecasting a weaker storm. The European model shows a stronger storm and thus a more westward track. Since Erin is so strong right now and is expected to remain a very powerful hurricane for at least the next couple of days, the more westward tracks of the European model are preferred.

It should be pointed out that there are no ensemble members, including the ones that show Erin being a very strong hurricanes, showing a direct landfall in the Bahamas or along the East Coast of the United States. That said, the stronger ensemble members are the ones that show Erin tracking fairly far west in longitude before it turns to the north and northeast.

So, as of this morning, I am concerned that we are going to see additional shifts to the west in the forecast track of Erin leading to guidance showing a fairly close pass to the Bahamas and the Outer Banks of North Carolina.

Here Are My Thoughts: First things first, I fully expect that Erin will keep its Category 5 strength throughout the rest of today into Sunday. I also think that Erin will probably remain a powerful hurricane for the next few days.

The big question is when exactly will Erin make that turn to the northwest and then north & how far west will it track before it makes that turn.

The weather feature that will weaken the high pressure on its western side & cause Erin to make that turn is a low pressure trough now located in the Tennessee Valley. This trough is expected to push off of the Georgia coast in about a day or two. We are going to have to see how much Erin can beat back this weakness in the high pressure ridge & try to re-enforce the ridge to the north causing the hurricane to try to track further west.

So, while I do expect that Erin will probably make that turn to the northwest and then to the north in a couple of days from now, it’s possible that it could get to 72 to even 75 West Longitude before it turns out to the northeast. If this occurs, it would lead to a very brush with the North Carolina Outer Banks around Wednesday or so.

My opinion is that Erin poses more of a threat to the Bahamas and the Outer Banks of North Carolina than to Bermuda.

For Those Of You In The Northern Leeward Islands, The Virgin Islands, Puerto Rico & Hispaniola – Even though Erin is passing to the north of the northeastern Caribbean, its outer rain bands will continue to affect the northern Leeward Islands, the Virgin Islands this afternoon into tonight. These outer rain bands will spread across Puerto Rico and Hispaniola later this afternoon and persist through tonight and early Sunday.

Locally heavy rain, localized flooding, some gusty winds and high surf can be expected with these rain bands.

As For The Bahamas: I do think that Erin will pass to the east of the Bahamas on Monday night and Tuesday, but the passage of the hurricane’s eye could be fairly close to the eastern Bahamas. My current take is that Erin’s eye may pass about 100 miles or so to the east of the eastern Bahamas.

This means that this could be close enough for the eastern and northern Bahamas to be impacted by tropical storm conditions during Monday into Tuesday.

How close Erin gets to the Bahamas is something that will need to be watched extremely closely.

For The East Coast Of The United States & Particularly The North Carolina Outer Banks: Even though Erin is tracking south of all of the forecast models, I still think that Erin will very likely pass offshore of the East Coast of the United States from Wednesday to Friday of next week. I do think that there’s the possibility that Erin could get close enough to the outer banks of North Carolina to bring tropical storm conditions around Wednesday into Thursday.

My thinking as of this morning is that Erin might track as close as 100-150 miles or so offshore of the North Carolina Outer Banks during Wednesday into Thursday. If Erin does get that close, it could lead to bands of heavy rain to affect far eastern parts of North Carolina and the outer banks of North Carolina on Wednesday into Thursday. Some tropical storm force winds are possible on the North Carolina Outer Banks, but any hurricane force winds will very, very likely stay well offshore.

The much bigger impact from Erin along the entire US East Coast is going to be very high surf, dangerous waves and rip currents throughout next week.

For Bermuda: It continues to look very likely that Erin will pass far enough west of Bermuda to not be a direct impact. The very large size of Erin could lead to some of the outer bands of rain to affect the island around the middle part of next week.

Finally, as I mentioned yesterday, it’s going to be extremely crucial for that weakness in the high pressure ridge to develop over the next 2-3 days or so. In all likelihood, we will see that weakness develop and we will likely see Erin make that turn to the north and then northeast.

That said, until we actually see that turn to the northwest and north occur, all interests up and down the East Coast of the United States should continue to monitor the progress of Erin extremely closely. The areas that really need to watch Erin are the Bahamas and areas from eastern North Carolina & the North Carolina Outer Banks into coastal Virginia, coastal Maryland and Delaware.

Again though, the threat for a direct impact from Erin looks very low, as of right now.

Model Track Forecast:

Satellite Imagery:

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Two Tropical Waves Will Need To Be Watched Closely In The Eastern Atlantic Next Week: There are two tropical waves – one located near the west coast of Africa and the second located over western Africa – that will need to be watched very closely next week over the eastern Atlantic.

All of the model guidance and their ensemble members seem to be pointing towards the potential for at least one of these waves to develop as it heads westward reaching the Lesser Antilles at the end of next week. Additionally, the European ensemble model guidance are now showing upwards of a 50 percent chance for tropical development over the central Tropical Atlantic during the second half of next week.

It seems the model guidance are honing on the more western tropical wave (the only located right along the west coast of Africa) as the one to really keep a very close eye on, if you are in the Lesser Antilles and the eastern Caribbean.

The latest analysis of the environmental conditions over the central and eastern tropical Atlantic reveals that the conditions seem favorable for the development of any waves pushing westward. That said, we don’t know yet what the structure of the wave will be like & whether Erin’s outflow might impart any wind shear over the central and eastern Atlantic as it lifts northward.

That said, I do think the tropical wave now located near the west coast of Africa is one to really keep an eye on as it could not only stay pretty far south in latitude, but also develop into a tropical system as it heads westward. This could lead to a threat to the Lesser Antilles late next week & it’s something to closely watch in the coming days.

The next tropical weather discussion will be issued on Sunday.

Tropical Storm Erin: After becoming quite disorganized with the convection around Erin collapsing last night, it seems as if Erin is organizing today with a small core of deep convection found near the center of the storm. All indications seem to be pointing that Erin is very near hurricane strength right now.

I do think that it is very likely that Erin will become a hurricane as this afternoon or tonight and then strengthen into a major hurricane around Sunday or Monday.

Erin is moving in a west-northwest direction today as it’s being steered by a high pressure ridge that’s found to the north of the storm. This west-northwestward track is likely to continue through this weekend leading to Erin passing north of the Leeward Islands, the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico.

As we get into the early part of next week, a weakness in the high pressure ridge is expected to cause Erin to turn to a northwesterly direction. How quick and sharp this turn will be is still up for debate & I will discuss this extensively later on in this discussion.

Model Guidance: After trending westward in their forecast tracks of Erin, it seems that any additional westward shifts in the guidance have stopped. It also seems that the track guidance are in pretty decent agreement in forecasting that Erin will probably curve northward and then northeastward about halfway between Bermuda and the East Coast of the United States around the middle and later parts of next week.

This agreement in the guidance that are showing the safe curve to the north and northeast include the track model guidance as well as the higher resolution hurricane models & the Google DeepMind AI models.

There are still questions, however, as to how far west Erin will track before it turns due north. The answer to this question is going to be very important as it’ll determine how close Erin might get to the Bahamas and the outer banks of North Carolina. How quick of a turn to the north occurs will also be important in figuring out how close Erin might get to the island of Bermuda.

Looking at the ensemble model guidance reveals that while a majority of the members turn the storm safely to the north missing both Bermuda and the East Coast of the United States, there are a few members that do show a very close brush with the eastern Bahamas and then a very close brush with the outer banks of North Carolina.

Bottom line is that while the model guidance seems pretty set on showing a fairly safe path in-between Bermuda and the US East Coast, I do still want to watch the model trends very closely, in case they start shifting to the west again.

Here Are My Thoughts: As I already mentioned, I do think that Erin will become a hurricane as soon as this afternoon and I also think that Erin will become a powerful major hurricane by later this weekend and next week.

Based on the data that I’ve looked at today, I do think that the center of Erin will pass about 100 miles or so to the north of the northern Leeward Islands, the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico during Saturday and Saturday night.

Even though Erin will stay north of the northeastern Caribbean, the outer bands of the storm will affect the northern Leeward Islands, the Virgin Islands, Puerto Rico and Hispaniola throughout this weekend. This means that you should expect locally heavy rainfall bringing localized flooding, some gusty winds and high surf.

Looking towards next week, I agree with the model guidance in their assertion that there will be a weakness in the high pressure ridge & this should cause Erin to turn to the northwest and then to the north. When and how quickly this turn will be remains somewhat uncertain. This is very important as the evolution and position of the weakness in the high pressure ridge will determine how close Erin gets to the Bahamas, Bermuda and the North Carolina Outer Banks.

At this point, I don’t think that we’re going to see a sharp turn to the northwest and north, but instead, a more gradual turn to the northwest and then to the north seems more plausible. This means that Erin should stay just east of the Bahamas by about 100 miles or so. It also means that Erin could get close enough to the eastern and northern Bahamas to bring them tropical storm conditions during Monday into Tuesday and this is something to watch closely.

I also think that Erin will pass offshore of the East Coast of the United States during the middle and later parts of next week, but it’s possible that the storm could track as close as 150 miles or so offshore of the outer banks of North Carolina around Wednesday into Thursday of next week. While this should keep any tropical storm force winds offshore of the Carolina coastline, any sort of a closer approach could introduce tropical storm conditions to the outer banks and far eastern North Carolina around the middle part of next week.

Even though in all likelihood Erin will not directly impact the Bahamas and the East Coast of the United States, it will definitely produce very high surf, dangerous waves and rip currents up and down the US East Coast throughout next week.

Also, it seems most likely that Erin should pass far enough west of Bermuda to not directly impact the island. That said, those of you on the island of Bermuda need to closely monitor the progress of Erin in case it makes a much closer approach around the middle part of next week.

Finally, I want to emphasize that I am going to be watching the steering currents around and to the west and north of Erin extremely closely. It is going to be extremely important for that weakness in the high pressure ridge to develop. In all likelihood, we will see that weakness develop, but if it doesn’t and we see a blocking high pressure ridge remain in place over the northeastern United States, it would block Erin from escaping and instead guide it towards the Bahamas and the US East Coast.

Until we actually see the turn to the northwest and north occur, all interests up and down the East Coast of the United States need to monitor Erin extremely closely. The areas that really need to watch Erin are the Bahamas and areas from eastern North Carolina into coastal Virginia, coastal Maryland and Delaware. Again though, the threat for a direct impact from Erin looks very low, as of right now.

Model Track Forecast:

Satellite Imagery:

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Invest 98-L Located Just Offshore Of Northeast Mexico & South Texas: An area of disturbed weather, designated Invest 98-L, is curently located just offshore of coastal northeast Mexico and the lower Texas coast.

Invest 98-L is producing some deep convection today, however, reconnaissance aircraft did not find this system organized enough yesterday to consider it a depression.

There is only a few hours left until Invest 98-L moves inland into the area along the Texas-Mexico border and because of this any development into a depression or a low-end tropical storm will be extremely short-lived.

This system will spread locally heavy rain into parts of northeastern Mexico and South Texas during this afternoon with this locally heavy rain continuing through Saturday.

Additional Tropical Development Possible Over The Eastern Atlantic As We Get Into Next Week: A new tropical wave now located over western Africa is expected to push off of the coast of Africa into the eastern Atlantic during this weekend.

The model guidance such as the GFS model and the European model do show some development from this wave as it heads westward across the Atlantic. That said, the GFS model is much more aggressive with the forecast development of this wave as it approaches the Lesser Antilles and the eastern Caribbean by late next week. In fact, the GFS model forecasts the development of two tropical waves (this one and another right behind it) as they move westward next week.

Analysis of the conditions across the eastern and central Atlantic reveals that the conditions look favorable for development of any waves pushing westward. That said, we don’t know yet what the structure of the wave will be like & whether Erin’s outflow might impart any wind shear over the central and eastern Atlantic as it lifts northward.

This wave and all other tropical waves will be watched closely once it pushes into the eastern Atlantic this weekend, however, I wouldn’t overly stress or worry about it, for now.

The next tropical weather discussion will be issued on Saturday.

Tropical Storm Erin: Analysis of satellite imagery and other weather data reveals that Erin has become better organized so far today with deep convection firing near the center of the storm. In addition, some banding features have been noted on satellite imagery, which all seem to suggest that the storm is strengthening.

Erin is currently headed nearly due west as it’s being steered by a high pressure ridge to the north of the storm. This westward track is causing Erin to track south of what most model guidance have been suggesting over the last couple of days & because of this, we are going to really have to watch how close it gets to the northeastern Caribbean on Saturday.

For now, it still seems most plausible that Erin should turn just far enough to the west-northwest and then northwest to miss the northern Leeward Islands, the Virgin Islands and Puerto, but I do think that the distance it passes to the northeastern Caribbean could be closer than what was previously thought.

Additionally, Erin is expected to be moving through an environment that’s favorable for strengthening & all indications are pointing towards it becoming a hurricane by sometime on Friday. Steady strengthening is then expected this weekend as Erin passes north of the Leeward Islands, even though the environmental conditions look to be somewhat favorable. It’s possible that Erin will become a major hurricane by later Sunday or Monday.

Model Guidance: The trends in the model guidance are not our friend today as many of them have shifted closer to the northeastern Caribbean, the Bahamas and the East Coast of the United States. These trends are going to have to be watched closely to see if these westward shifts in the forecast track continue.

Even though a majority of the track model guidance have shifted westward in their forecast track of Erin since yesterday, the overall forecast track consensus is for the storm to still track north of the Leeward Islands, the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico this weekend. That said, this pass to the north of the northeastern Caribbean could be quite close with most guidance showing the center of Erin passing between 75 and 125 miles to the north of the northeastern Caribbean.

These westward shifts in the track guidance have Erin passing closer to the Bahamas and the East Coast of the United States, as compared to what the guidance showed yesterday.

The reason for the shifts westward in the model guidance is due to the models trending towards a stronger high pressure ridge that narrows the weakness in the guidance. This delays Erin’s turn to the north. Still though, guidance seems to be in good agreement in forecasting that there will be a weakness in the high pressure ridge, which will allow Erin to turn to the north in the area about halfway between the East Coast of the United States and Bermuda (latest consensus guidance shows the northward turning occurring around 70-71 West Longitude).

It goes without saying that these trends in the model guidance will need to be watched closely for any additional shifts towards a more threatening look.

Here Are My Thoughts: I do still think that Erin will pass just north of the Leeward Islands, the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico during Saturday, but this pass to the north looks quite close & the progress of Erin needs to be watched very closely.

Even though the core of the storm should stay north of the northeastern Caribbean, squalls of rain and gusty winds on the south side of the storm will affect the northern Leeward Islands, the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico beginning on Friday night and continuing through this weekend. Localized flash flooding looks quite possible across the northeastern Caribbean this weekend.

Those of you in the Leeward Islands, especially the northern Leeward Islands, the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico should keep a close eye on the progress of Erin, in case the track of the storm shifts closer to the northeastern Caribbean.

As for the Bahamas and the East Coast of the United States – I still think that a direct impact from Erin is unlikely as the weakness in the high pressure ridge should be just enough to turn it northward. That being said, there is a small chance, probably around 10 percent or so, that Erin could track far enough west to directly impact the Bahamas and the US East Coast.

Even though in all likelihood Erin will not directly impact the Bahamas and the East Coast of the United States, it will definitely produce very high surf, dangerous waves and rip currents up and down the US East Coast throughout next week.

Those of you on the island of Bermuda definitely still needs to closely watch the progress of Erin as it could certainly pose a threat to you around the middle part of next week.

Model Track Forecast:

Satellite Imagery:

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Invest 98-L Located Over The Bay Of Campeche: I’m also keeping a very close eye on Invest 98-L, which is located in the Bay of Campeche today.

Satellite imagery indicates that there is deep, but disorganized convection occurring with this system. Additionally, there seems to be some spin noted in satellite loops.

The Bay of Campeche and the southwestern and western Gulf is an area that can overproduce in terms of tropical development. The shape of the coastline in this area can increase the spin of any disturbances moving through the area causing them to quickly develop into a tropical system.

What is concerning is that the environmental conditions are quite favorable for development due to low amounts of wind shear. Fortunately though, Invest 98-L has a limited amount of time to be over water as it’ll be moving inland near the Texas-Mexico border by late Friday.

All-in-all, it would not surprise me at all to see Invest 98-L become a depression or even a low end tropical storm before it moves inland over northern Mexico and South Texas late Friday.

Even if Invest 98-L does not develop into a depression or a tropical storm, it will bring locally heavy rainfall across the lower Texas coast and the Lower Rio Grande Valley starting Friday afternoon and continuing through Saturday.

Model Track Forecast:

Satellite Imagery:

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Also Watching A Couple Of Other Tropical Waves That’ll Be Pushing Into The Eastern Atlantic: There are a couple of other tropical waves that’ll be pushing off of the coast of Africa into the far eastern Atlantic over the next several days.

Some of the model guidance are showing that the more westward positioned tropical wave may try to develop into a tropical system as it heads westward into the central Atlantic by the middle part of next week. In fact, the ensemble model guidance seems to suggest this wave may take a more southerly track and be more of a threat to the eastern and northeastern Caribbean around late next week.

The additional waves pushing off of Africa will be watched closely as we get into next week. That said, I wouldn’t stress or worry about it right now.

The next tropical weather discussion will be issued on Friday.

Tropical Storm Erin: Satellite imagery today indicates that Erin is a little better organized with a small area of deep convection noted. That said, some easterly wind shear, dry air and marginally favorable ocean water temperatures are affecting the storm and because of this, it has not been able to strengthen significantly.

Erin is heading in a westerly direction and is now located about halfway between the Leeward Islands and the coast of Africa. The further west Erin moves, the more favorable the environmental conditions will be. Because of this, I expect Erin will become a hurricane by about Friday and probably will become a major hurricane as it is passing to the north of the Leeward Islands, the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico during this weekend.

Even though Erin is moving on a westward track, it is expected that a weakness in the high pressure ridge to the north of the storm will help to turn it to the west-northwest at the end of this week and during this weekend. This turn will lead Erin to pass safely to the north of the Leeward Islands, the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico during this weekend.

Model Guidance: The overall model guidance are in excellent agreement in forecasting that Erin will be of no threat to the eastern or northeastern Caribbean.

Additionally, track model guidance seem to agree that Erin will turn to the north into that weakness in the high pressure ridge. Guidance does disagree on where exactly this turn to the north will occur.

The spread in the ensemble members range from a turn near 60-65 West Longitude, which would lead to a significant threat to Bermuda, to a turn near 70 West Longitude, which would lead to a miss to Bermuda and the East Coast of the United States, but could raise the threat slightly for Atlantic Canada.

Here Are My Thoughts: I am extremely confident that Erin will miss the Leeward Islands, the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico to the north as the storm finds a weakness in the high pressure ridge.

I do want to caution those of you in the Leeward Islands, the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico to still watch the progress of Erin. While a direct impact from the storm is highly unlikely, I do think that squalls of heavy rain and gusty winds on the southern periphery of the storm may affect the northern Leeward Islands, the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico beginning on Friday and continuing through this weekend. In addition, rough surf is also going to be a threat across much of the northeastern Caribbean, especially for the Atlantic facing beaches late this week through this weekend.

Turning to next week, I do have increasing amounts of confidence that Erin should find itself caught in that weakness in the high pressure ridge. Because of this, it looks more likely than not that the storm will turn to the northwest and then eventually to the north somewhere over the western North Atlantic.

Where I think the forecast has some uncertainty attached to it is where exactly this turn to the north will occur as there is a large range in possible tracks that the storm could take. That being said, I think that there is a very low chance for a direct hit on the East Coast of the United States and Bermuda has a much bigger potential threat from Erin around the middle part of next week.

Because of this, I urge all interests on the island of Bermuda to closely monitor the progress of Erin as it could be a big time threat for you by about middle part of next week.

For those of you along the East Coast of the United States, I would still keep a very close eye on the progress of Erin, even though the chances of a direct impact are low, as of this time. The higher threat from Erin along the East Coast of the United States next week looks to be high surf, rough seas and the threat for rip currents.

Model Track Forecast:

Satellite Imagery:

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Elsewhere Across The Atlantic, Caribbean & Gulf: One other disturbance that I am keeping an eye on is a tropical wave located over the Yucatan Peninsula. This wave is producing some disorganized shower and thunderstorm activity today & the entire disturbance is expected to push into the Bay of Campeche and the southern Gulf as we get into Thursday and Friday.

A look at the environmental conditions out ahead of this wave reveals that the wind shear values are favorable for development and because of this, I am going to keep an eye on this disturbance, just in case.

It should be noted though that none of the model guidance and their ensemble counterparts forecast any sort of development from this disturbance and most likely, nothing significant should come from this wave.

That said, it is August in the Gulf with a disturbance that is expected to move through an area of the southern Gulf that has a history of spinning up storms quickly due to the curvature of the Bay of Campeche.

This disturbance is expected to reach the northeastern Mexico and lower Texas coast during Friday into Saturday.

So, while I will be keeping a close eye on this wave, I’m not overly concerned that we’re going to see any sort of development from it.

The next tropical weather discussion will be issued on Wednesday.

Invest 97-L Located Over The Eastern Atlantic: It appears that Invest 97-L is extremely close to becoming a depression today & in fact, it would not surprise me to see the National Hurricane Center upgrade it to a Tropical Depression at 11 am EDT today.

NOTE – Just as I was finishing writing today’s discussion, I received a message from NHC saying that this system is being upgraded to Tropical Storm Erin at 11 am EDT.

A look at satellite imagery reveals that the shower and thunderstorm activity associated with Invest 97-L is looking pretty healthy & concentrated. Further analysis reveals that Invest 97-L may be producing up to 40 mph maximum winds, based on satellite data. If this is the case, then NHC may end up skipping the depression designation & immediately upgrading it to a tropical storm.

Analysis of the environment around Invest 97-L indicates that this system is being impacted by easterly wind shear & this, combined with cooler ocean water temperatures, should put a limit on how much it strengthens over the next 2 to 3 days or so.

Beyond this, the environmental conditions become much more favorable for strengthening towards the end of this week & because of this, I fully expect this system to be our first hurricane of the season.

Model Guidance: The overall model guidance are in really good agreement with their forecasts of the track of Invest 97-L. They seem to strongly suggest that this system will turn back to the west by Tuesday and head in a westerly direction through Wednesday into Thursday.

From there, guidance is still in very good agreement in showing this system turning a little more to the west-northwest and passing very safely to the north of the Leeward Islands and the Virgin Islands by Saturday.

Looking beyond this, the model guidance seems to suggest that a weakness will develop between a high pressure ridge over the Gulf and another high pressure ridge over Africa. This weakness should help to steer this system, likely Hurricane Erin at that point, to turn much more to the northwest. Usually from here, these storms will continue turning to the north and track out into the open Atlantic & probably threatening Bermuda along the way. More than likely, this will probably actually occur.

That said, there is some uncertainty in the guidance on whether the Gulf high pressure tries to build eastward and bridge the gap with the high pressure ridge over the central and eastern Atlantic. If there is any bridging in that weakness in the high pressure ridge, it could cause this system to try to track closer to the Bahamas, the East Coast of the United States and Atlantic Canada.

Here Are My Thoughts: It looks more likely than not that the environmental conditions around this system will favor strengthening throughout this week. Because of this, it looks likely that this system will be a hurricane by the end of this week.

I also think that it’s pretty likely that Invest 97-L will pass very safely to the north of the Leeward Islands and the Virgin Islands by about Saturday & because of this, I think that there isn’t anything to be concerned about in terms of impacts for the eastern and northeastern Caribbean from this system, except for swells later this week through this weekend.

Looking further down the road, I think we may still be a few more days away from absolutely ruling out a direct impact to the East Coast of the United States or Atlantic Canada. The reason why is because there is uncertainty as to how sharp of a turn to the northwest and north will occur with this system.

Because of this, there are a couple of scenarios that could play out next week with this system:

The first scenario is for the weakness in the western Atlantic to be strong enough to turn this system northward and northeastward sparing the East Coast of the United States and Atlantic Canada from a direct hit. In this scenario, Bermuda could very well be threatened, if not impacted as this system turns to the north and northeast.

The second scenario is for the upper level high pressure ridge to build back in and steer this system towards the East Coast of the United States and Atlantic Canada.

My feeling as of right now is that future Hurricane Erin should ultimately head out into the open Atlantic and not be a threat to the US East Coast. That said, Bermuda and Atlantic Canada definitely needs to keep close tabs on how sharp the north and northeast turn is next week as many guidance members do point to a threat to Bermuda and then to Nova Scotia and Newfoundland.

The Bottom Line Is That the trends for a hit on the East Coast of the United States and the Bahamas are decreasing. That said, I want to give it a couple of more days until I can absolutely assure you that the US East Coast is safe from future Erin.

Model Track Forecast:

Satellite Imagery:

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What Else Is Behind Invest 97-L: A look at satellite imagery of what’s behind Invest 97-L/Erin shows that there is another wave right on the coast of western Africa. This wave may have some chance to develop as it heads westward across the Atlantic. It should be noted that only the AI models are showing development of this wave, with other models such as the GFS and European models showing no development at all. I am skeptical of using the AI models as they haven’t done very well this season in their forecasts of development.

For now, it’s a wave to just keep an eye on, but I’m not urgently concerned that it’ll develop anytime soon.

The next tropical weather discussion will be issued on Tuesday.

Invest 97-L Located Over The Eastern Atlantic: Satellite imagery and weather analysis reveals that a low pressure system located over the eastern Atlantic about halfway between the coast of Africa and the Cabo Verde Islands is becoming better organized today. This disturbance is labeled Invest 97-L by the National Hurricane Center.

A look at satellite imagery today shows that while the overall circulation with Invest 97-L is becoming better organized, the convection with it is still disorganized. That said, Invest 97-L is very close to becoming a depression and I suspect it may get that upgrade as soon as later today or on Monday.

Invest 97-L is currently moving in a northwesterly direction and because of this, it will likely bring quite a bit of squally weather to the Cabo Verde Islands starting this afternoon and lasting through tonight and Monday.

Let me discuss what the model guidance is showing and then go into my analysis of what may occur with Invest 97.

Model Guidance: The track model guidance are in good agreement in showing Invest 97-L tracking in a northwesterly direction over the next day or so before it turns back to the west. A majority of the track model guidance then shows Invest 97-L staying well north of the Lesser Antilles by Friday and Saturday with little or no impact to any of the eastern or northeastern Caribbean.

The track model guidance has the support of all of the ensemble model guidance in which a large majority of the members showing a track that keeps Invest 97-L well north of the Lesser Antilles by Saturday.

Beyond this, the guidance diverges quite a bit once we get into next week (week of August 18) and this should absolutely be expected for a 7-plus day forecast. The range in the ensemble guidance by next Monday, August 18 ranges from a storm in the Bahamas that could threaten and impact the East Coast of the United States all the way to a storm curving northward towards Bermuda and then into the open Atlantic.

I want to reiterate what I wrote a couple of days ago, be very wary of anyone posting a model map on social media because no one or no one model knows exactly where Invest 97-L is going to end up tracking in 7-14 days from now. Don’t fall for the social media hype on this system. Stick with us because we’re going to guide you through every step with this system.

Here Are My Thoughts: Invest 97-L is likely to continue organizing over the eastern Atlantic and will very likely become a depression between later today and about Tuesday. It should also continue heading in a northwesterly direction before it begins to turn back to the west along about the 17-18 North Latitude line.

Turning to the period from about Wednesday to Friday of this upcoming week, it seems likely based on the excellent agreement among the guidance that Invest 97-L will head in a west-northwesterly directly and this should keep this system far enough north to avoid the Lesser Antilles. That being said, if you are in the northern Leeward Islands, the Virgin Islands or Puerto Rico, I would keep very close watch on Invest 97-L, just in case it turns to the west earlier leading a track lower in latitude. Additionally, I do think that this system will strengthen into a tropical storm by or before Wednesday and then become a hurricane by the end of this week.

As we get into next weekend (August 16-17), the weather pattern looks to become more complicated and thus, the potential track of Invest 97-L becomes more complicated and uncertain. An upper level high pressure ridge over the central and eastern Atlantic may weaken enough to allow Invest 97-L to turn more to the northwest. How sharp of a northwest turn occurs is something that is uncertain.

On one hand, if we see a sharp turn to the northwest, it probably will continue that turn more to the north leading to a path that takes it towards Bermuda and then out into the open Atlantic.

On the other hand, should we turn a much more lazy turn to the northwest, it could get caught underneath a building high pressure system during next week (week of August 18) leading to this system threatening the Bahamas and the East Coast of the United States.

The key weather feature to watch around next weekend and beyond is the strength of the high pressure ridge over the western Atlantic. If we see a strengthening and expanding high pressure ridge, then the chances would increase for Invest 97-L to impact the East Coast of the United States. On the other hand, should we see a narrower and weaker high pressure ridge, it would give Invest 97-L an out leading it to turn out into the open Atlantic.

My feeling right now is that the chances are higher that Invest 97-L will end up being steered northward towards Bermuda and eventually out into the open Atlantic. That said, this is something that has a low amount of confidence.

That said, to be bluntly honest, I still have no idea at all where Invest 97-L will ultimately track next week (week of August 11). Because of this, my recommendation is that everyone from the Florida Peninsula and the Bahamas northward up the entire East Coast of the United States and Atlantic Canada should monitor the progress of Invest 97-L closely.

Model Track Forecast:

Satellite Imagery:

Also Wanted To Mention The Tropical Disturbance Over The Southeastern Gulf: I wanted to make a mention about the area of convection that’s located over the southeastern Gulf as its presentation on satellite imagery and radar loops have gotten more interesting.

This disturbance has brought extremely heavy amounts of rainfall to southwestern parts of Florida this morning with areas around Sanibel, Captiva and Pine Island receiving up to a foot of rain with more on the way.

Analysis reveals that there seems to be some low to mid-level circulation associated with it. A majority of the circulation seems to be occurring just west of Naples. Additionally, the wind shear values over the eastern Gulf are favorable for development.

The combination of the deep convection that’s occurring, along with low amounts of wind shear and the low and mid-level circulation that seems to be presence says to me that we need to keep an eye on this disturbance, in case it spins up unexpectedly into a tropical system.

Right now, none of the model guidance are forecasting any sort of development of the southeastern Gulf disturbance and it is expected to head in a northwesterly direction reaching the north-central Gulf Coast by Monday night or Tuesday morning.

I will certainly be keeping an eye on this area of convection and will have updates if it does begin to spin up into a tropical system.

The next tropical weather discussion will be issued on Monday.

A Tropical Wave Now Moving Off Of The Coast Of Africa Is One To Really Watch Next Week: Satellite imagery and weather analysis reveals that there is a tropical wave that is about to push off of the coast of Africa into the far eastern Atlantic. Satellite loops indicates that there is already some spin occurring with the wave. Also, analysis reveals that the amount of wind shear over the eastern tropical Atlantic is low enough to support development.

A large majority of the model guidance are latching onto this particular tropical wave as being one that could not only significantly develop, but also threaten the northeastern Caribbean in about a week from now and then possibly threaten the US coastline in about 10-14 days from now. More on that in a bit.

Before I get into discussing the model guidance, I want to point out that we are still a few days away from anything even forming. I do think that development will be very slow to occur for a while as overall environmental conditions across the eastern and central tropical Atlantic are marginally favorable for development. This means that any small deviations on where or when this system consolidates and forms can have huge implications on where it will eventually track and how strong it could be. This means that you should take any model guidance for a 10-plus day forecast with a pound of salt.

As for the model guidance – First, I don’t really look at the operational models for a forecast this far out because their exact forecasts for a 10-14 day forecast can change many, many times and any one solution should not be trusted. Instead, I like to look at the ensemble model guidance for a 7-14 day forecast as it gives you a range of possible solutions.

The GFS ensemble model guidance seems to suggest that we should see a west-northwesterly track over the next week putting this system anywhere from over the northeastern Caribbean to north of the Caribbean by about next Saturday. From there, the GFS ensemble members diverge on their forecasts with some showing a turn to the northwest while other members seem to forecast a generally westward track. This leads to many different outcomes from a curve northward taking this system towards Bermuda by about August 18 to a system that continues to track into the Bahamas by August 18 followed by a threat or impact to the East Coast of the United States by about August 20.
As for the European ensemble model guidance, it also suggests a track that either leads to this system tracking over or to the north of the northeastern Caribbean by next Saturday. That said, it should be pointed out that the majority of the ensemble members do show this system just missing the northeastern Caribbean to the north. From there, the European ensemble model members diverge a lot with some showing a turn to the north towards Bermuda while others seem to show a northwestward track towards the Carolinas, the Mid-Atlantic coast and New England by about August 20. There are other members that show a track towards the Bahamas and the southeastern coast of the United States between August 18 and 20.

Here Are My Thoughts: While I do think that this tropical wave definitely needs to be watched extremely closely next week as it heads across the eastern and central tropical Atlantic, I am not ringing the alarm bells for anyone. Beware of the social media hype on this system & don’t believe it. No one or no model knows exactly where this system is going to end up going.

I do think that this wave will struggle for a while as it heads west-northwestward across the eastern and central tropical Atlantic over the next several days. This is due to marginally favorable ocean water temperatures. This should change by the time this wave reaches about 55 West Longitude around Thursday when it should start developing due to more favorable conditions.

Additionally, I think there is the possibility that this system could be a tropical storm by the time it reaches about 60 West Longitude. Given the ensemble range, it’s possible that it could be either right over the northeastern Caribbean or located just north of the northeastern Caribbean when it reaches the 60 West Longitude line around next Saturday.

Beyond this, I’ll be honest with you and say that I have no idea at all where exactly this system will end up tracking. Guidance seems to hint that there may be a weakness in the high pressure ridge steering this system & if this occurs, it could mean a turn to the northwest and north. It’s unknown of how sharp this turn might be & that’ll be extremely important. A really sharp turn to the north would lead to this system heading out into the open Atlantic & perhaps threatening Bermuda. On the other hand, a much more gradual turn to the northwest would lead to this system potentially threatening the Bahamas and then a large part of the East Coast of the United States.

Bottom line is that the environmental conditions look very favorable for development and then strengthening of a tropical system & because of this, I am going to be keeping very close tabs on this particular tropical wave. Just know that this wave is nothing to be overly concerned about or worried about, for now.

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Elsewhere Across The Atlantic, This Is What Else We’re Watching:

Low Pressure Off Of The North Carolina Coast: It appears that a low pressure system located between the coast of North Carolina and Bermuda probably will not develop at all. It is expected that this low pressure system will head in a northeastward direction into the open Atlantic this weekend where it’ll merge with a frontal boundary.

Invest 96-L Located Over The Central Tropical Atlantic: It appears that Invest 96-L is struggling to produce convection over the central Tropical Atlantic near about 41 West Longitude. I do think that Invest 96-L will continue to struggle to develop this weekend as it begins a turn to the northwest and north. This will keep this system out over the open Atlantic with no threat to anyone.

It’s possible that Invest 96-L will find itself in a more favorable environment for development by the first half of next week as it tracks well east of Bermuda & this is when it might develop into a depression or a tropical storm.

In any case, Invest 96-L, whether it develops or not, will turn out into the open Atlantic well before it gets near Bermuda.

The next tropical weather discussion will be issued on Monday.