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Even though we are about one week away from the hurricane season “officially” ending, some of the model guidance are forecasting the possibility of one more storm to form in the western Caribbean during the first week of December. Because of this, I wanted to send out this update to take a look at it.

The GFS model has been consistently forecasting that a tropical system will form over the southwestern Caribbean and then push northwestward into the western Caribbean during the first couple of days of December. The GFS model then forecasts this tropical system to be pulled northward into the Gulf by about December 4-5 and then head towards the northern or eastern Gulf coast by about December 6. The GFS has been forecasting this scenario since about the middle part of last week.

Taking a look at the other model guidance, none of the other operational models currently forecast the scenario that the GFS model is showing.

As for the ensemble guidance, obviously since the GFS model is showing tropical development, the GFS ensemble model guidance is showing something similar. The GFS ensemble guidance has a few members that point to tropical development to occur in the southwestern Caribbean around December 1 with most of these members forecasting a track into the northwestern Caribbean by about December 3.

The European ensemble model guidance shows a quiet western Caribbean with no members forecasting tropical development.

Interestingly, one of the Google Deep Mind AI ensemble model suite does show a strong signal for tropical development in the western Caribbean during the first week of December. Meanwhile another ensemble suite from Google Deep Mind is very weak with the tropical development chances in the far western Caribbean.

Here Are My Thoughts: Given that the GFS model is the only model that is showing western Caribbean tropical development, I am very skeptical that it will occur. The reason why is that the GFS model is notorious for spinning up phantom storms this time of year & I do think that this is what’s occurring here.

Additionally, a look at the Atlantic Basin reveals that environmental conditions are extremely unfavorable for tropical development due to strong wind shear. This includes all of the Gulf, all of the Caribbean and all of the Atlantic. Because of this, anything that does try to develop would probably be sheared apart quickly.

That being said, this is something that I’m going to be keeping an eye on, just in case nature trolls us and develops a December tropical system.

Before I get into updating you about the freezing temperatures tonight along the Gulf Coast, I wanted to say thank you once again to everyone that has helped us so far in terms of donating. The help that everyone has extended is appreciated far more than you will ever know. So, a huge thank you to you!

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Now onto the latest weather update:

A pretty cold air mass on the backside of a robust cold front has made its way as far south as the Gulf of Mexico today. This air mass promises to bring freezing temperatures as far south as the I-10 corridor from southeastern Louisiana through southern Mississippi, southern Alabama and the Florida Panhandle tonight. Freezing temperatures will also push as far south as parts of north-central Florida tonight. A freeze this far south this early in the season is pretty unusual and because of this, numerous record low temperatures will be tied or broken by Tuesday morning.

If that wasn’t enough, this cold air mass is bringing accumulating snow to areas of the Smoky Mountains, the Ohio Valley and parts of the central Appalachian Mountains. Lake effect snow is also occurring in lower Michigan, northern Indiana, northeastern Ohio, northwestern Pennsylvania and western New York State.

It is expected that this Arctic air with freezing temperatures will be short-lived & temperatures will rebound quickly by Wednesday.

All is quiet across the Atlantic, Caribbean and Gulf as we are about to head into the weekend. It appears that no tropical development is expected for at least the next 10 days, if not longer. The reason for this has to due with the very high amounts of wind shear and very dry air that is present across much of the Atlantic Basin. These unfavorable environmental conditions are expected to persist for at least the next 10 days, if not through the last 3 weeks that are remaining in this hurricane season. Because of this, we might be able to close the books on the 2025 Atlantic Hurricane Season.

Now, let’s turn out attention to the central and eastern parts of the United States where it appears that the first Arctic blast of the season will occur for a couple of days early next week.

A robust cold front is expected to push eastward across the central and then eastern United States this weekend & this cold front will introduce a blast of pretty cold air for this time of year.

Current indications seem to point towards record low temperatures occurring on Monday morning and Tuesday morning, especially across the Southeast.

Frost and freeze conditions will make it as far south as the I-10 corridor of Louisiana, Mississippi, Alabama and the Florida Panhandle on Tuesday morning. Additionally, low temperatures will be in the teens and 20s across areas from the Tennessee Valley northward into the Ohio Valley and Midwest.

Fortunately, this bout of cold weather will not last long at all, as temperatures will rebound quickly by the middle part of next week.

All is quiet across the Atlantic, Caribbean and Gulf today & no tropical development is expected for at least the next 10 days to possibly 14 days.

Weather analysis today reveals that a frontal system stretches from the northwestern Caribbean east-northeastward through the Bahamas and then into the open North Atlantic. While there is some disorganized convection occurring over the far western Caribbean, no development is expected due to very strong wind shear values.

These unfavorable environmental conditions are likely to persist across the Atlantic Basin throughout the rest of this week right through all of next week.

Looking beyond this, most of the reliable model guidance show no areas of potential tropical development for at least the next 10 to 14 days. The exception to this is the GFS model and its ensemble members, which do show an area of potential tropical development during next week in the southwestern Caribbean. The GFS model should be used with an abundance amount of skepticism this time of year. The GFS model tends to incorrectly spin up tropical systems in the western Caribbean this time of year, when in the end nothing ends up occurring. Because of this, I am ignoring the GFS model’s forecast of southwestern and western Caribbean tropical development next week and so should you.

The next tropical weather discussion will be issued on Friday.

After bringing hurricane conditions to Bermuda last night, Melissa has become extra-tropical as it now heads rapidly northeastward into the open Atlantic. Because of this, we can now finally close the books on this terrible hurricane that brought so much devastation.

The rest of the Atlantic, Caribbean and Gulf are quiet today and no tropical development is expected for at least the next week to possibly 10 days.

Now, are we done with the hurricane season? My take as of today is we probably aren’t quite done with seeing any more tropical systems. As I mentioned in my discussion yesterday, we are currently in weak La Nina conditions. Looking at past hurricane seasons with La Nina conditions revealed that about 75 percent of them had at least one tropical storm or hurricane during the months of November and December. Given the stats, I do think that there is a relatively high chance that we’ll probably see maybe 1 or even 2 more tropical systems before we can finally put a fork into the 2025 Atlantic Hurricane Season.

Investigating this further reveals that an upward motion pulse of the Madden Julian Oscillation may make its way into the Caribbean by mid to late November. Should this occur, then we could see favorable conditions for one last gasp at tropical development during the second half of November.

Where could we see tropical development occur? The Southwestern Caribbean is a common place that we look at for tropical development during the month of November. In fact, satellite imagery indicated that there is some convection occurring near the north coast of Panama. This convection is being caused by the tail end of a stationary front in the area. While this will be watched for signs of organization and development, I’m not anticipating to see any sort of robust development from it. It’s possible that we might have to watch the southwestern Caribbean for tropical development during the second half of November.

Other areas of the Atlantic that are usual suspects for tropical development in November include the area out in the central North Atlantic where we can sometimes see a tropical system track from near Bermuda northeastward to the Azores.

It is normally very rare to see a tropical storm or hurricane impact the US coastline in the month of November. Yes, it has happened before, but it’s relatively rare.

Bottom line is that tropical development is not expected for at least the next week to ten days, if not longer. We might have to look towards the southwestern Caribbean for the slight possibility of tropical development during the second half of November.

The next tropical weather discussion will be issued on Tuesday.

Hurricane Melissa: Melissa is on its way to Bermuda & will impact the island later this afternoon and tonight.

Reconnaissance aircraft investigating Melissa have found that the hurricane is about a 105 mph hurricane with a 965 minimum barometric pressure. Additionally, satellite imagery reveals that an eye wall seems to be wrapping around what appears to be the beginning of a new eye forming. This says to me that Melissa will probably strengthen this afternoon into tonight & may become a low-end Category 3 hurricane as it passes very near Bermuda during tonight.

As Melissa passes near Bermuda, it will likely bring hurricane conditions to the island during tonight. While a close pass to the island looks likely, it appears that a direct hit to Bermuda is not expected.

Melissa will then distance itself from Bermuda on Friday as it rapidly moves to the northeast. This northeastward track will lead to Melissa passing near the Avalon Peninsula in Newfoundland on Saturday morning as an extra-tropical hurricane-strength storm.

Beyond this, we will finally be able to say goodbye to Melissa.

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Elsewhere Across The Atlantic, Caribbean & Gulf: The rest of the Atlantic Basin is quiet today & it appears that tropical development anywhere else is highly unlikely for at least the next week.

Now, the question is are we now completely done with the hurricane season? Since we are in weak La Nina conditions right now, I do think it’s possible that we might see one or two more tropical systems form during the month of November. That said, any tropical systems that form in November typically do so in the deep southwestern Caribbean or out in the middle of the Atlantic. It’s usually very rare to see a tropical storm or hurricane approach the US coast in November. It’s happened, yes, but it’s fairly rare.

For now though, all looks quiet for at least the next week, if not longer.

The next tropical weather discussion will be issued on Friday.

Hurricane Melissa: After devastating western Jamaica, including Black River and Montego Bay, Melissa made a second landfall early this morning (around 3:10 am EDT) in eastern Cuba as a 120 mph Category 3 hurricane. Strong winds of up to hurricane force, a life threatening storm surge and extremely heavy rain with catastrophic flooding and mudslides will continue across eastern Cuba through this afternoon.

A word of caution when viewing the pictures and videos coming out of Jamaica and eastern Cuba – Use a lot of skepticism when you see them. Fake, AI-generated photos and videos of the hurricane damage have been rampant. It’s been tough for me to discern what is real and what is fake, so I’ve been trying to use reputable sources, including the chasers that were in Jamaica. The verified photos and videos from Black River, St. Elizabeth and Montego Bay do show extreme amounts of damage, including videos of some of Black River being leveled and completely destroyed. Sadly, I think that we are only see a very small percentage of the actual destruction that has occurred & it’s probably going to be several more days until we realize how bad the damage actually is across western Jamaica.

It is now expected that Melissa will cross the southeastern Bahamas later this afternoon and tonight as a Category 2 hurricane. It appears that the core of Melissa will pass over the islands of Crooked Island, Samana Cay, Long Island, Rum Cay and San Salvador Island. Hurricane conditions with wind gusts of over 100 mph, a storm surge of up to 5 to 8 feet and heavy rain can be expected across the southeastern Bahamas this afternoon and tonight. Tropical storm conditions can be expected across the Turks and Caicos throughout the rest of today through tonight.

Beyond this, Melissa will speed up in its forward motion & it appears very likely that the hurricane will pass just west of Bermuda on Thursday night as a borderline Category 1-Category 2 hurricane. I do think that the hurricane will pass close enough to Bermuda to bring hurricane conditions to the island throughout Thursday night & all island interests should be ready for this hurricane.

The next tropical weather discussion will be issued on Thursday.

Major Hurricane Melissa: Melissa became a Category 5 monster hurricane earlier this morning & reports from reconnaissance aircraft indicate that the hurricane continues to strengthen even more. The latest update from reconnaissance aircraft indicate that Melissa has 165 mph maximum winds and a central barometric pressure of 908 millibars.

This is about as bad as it can get for the island of Jamaica as a catastrophic hurricane impact is expected. The worst of the hurricane for Jamaica is expected tonight through the day on Tuesday.

Even though Melissa is now moving very slowly to the west, it is expected to turn towards the north as soon as later today. The reason for this is due to an upper level trough of low pressure pushing through the southeastern United States & having enough of an influence to begin picking Melissa up & sending it northward.

This northward track means that the eye and the core of Category 5 Hurricane Melissa is expected to move right over the west-central part of Jamaica with landfall occurring on Tuesday morning. This will put Kingston on the bad side of the hurricane & because of this, significant rainfall, catastrophic winds and a very high storm surge is expected for Kingston.

A turn towards the northeast is expected by late Tuesday with this northeasterly track then expected throughout the rest of the week. This means that Melissa will cross eastern Cuba as a Category 3 to Category 4 hurricane during Tuesday night and then move over the southeastern Bahamas on Wednesday afternoon and Wednesday evening as a Category 2 to Category 3 hurricane. After that, Melissa could reach Bermuda on Thursday night as possibly a Category 2 hurricane & a direct hit on Bermuda is quite possible.

Jamaica: This continues to look like a worst case scenario in terms of a hurricane hit. Please prepare for this hurricane as if it is the worst hurricane you have ever experienced, because it will be.

Do not go outdoors & stay indoors throughout the rest of today, all of tonight and all day Tuesday. Doing so will probably save your life.

The core of Major Hurricane Melissa containing Category 4 to Category 5 strength winds will hit Jamaica directly from tonight through Tuesday. Landfall looks to occur on the west-central part of the island on Tuesday morning.

Melissa is going to be moving over Jamaica from south to north & because of this, it will produce a catastrophic storm surge of 9 to 13 feet along Jamaica’s south shore, including Kingston Harbor and Norman Manley International Airport.

If that wasn’t enough, heavy and persistent rain will continue to occur across Jamaica throughout the rest of today, all of tonight and all of Tuesday. Widespread rainfall totals of at least 20 to 30 inches (500 to 750 mm) are expected across much of Jamaica. These extreme rainfall totals will lead to catastrophic flooding and numerous landslides throughout the next several days.

The impacts from Melissa in terms of Category 4 to Category 5 strength winds, a very high storm surge & catastrophic flooding from rainfall could be one of Jamaica’s most destructive hurricanes.

Once again, if you are on the island of Jamaica, I implore you to take this hurricane extremely seriously. If you have friends or relatives on the island, please tell them to take this hurricane extremely seriously.

Extensive damage to infrastructure, long duration power and communication outages and complete isolation of communities are all expected with Melissa.

Haiti & The Dominican Republic: Catastrophic and life-threatening flash flooding and landslides are expected across southwestern Haiti and southern parts of the Dominican Republic over the next 2 to 3 days. This will lead to extensive infrastructural damage and isolation of communities, especially in southwestern Haiti.

Eastern Cuba: Melissa is expected to cross eastern Cuba as a Category 3 to Category 4 hurricane on Tuesday night & this means that a significant storm surge, extremely strong winds and a high storm surge of 7 to 11 feet can be expected across all of eastern Cuba on Tuesday night, including the city of Santiago de Cuba where severe hurricane conditions are expected on Tuesday night.

All interests in eastern Cuba need to take this hurricane very seriously as you will be hit very hard by Melissa.

Southeastern Bahamas: Current indications seem to point towards Melissa tracking directly over Crooked Island in the southeastern Bahamas on Wednesday afternoon and Wednesday evening as a Category 2 to Category 3 hurricane.

This will lead to significant amounts of wind, rain and surge across the islands of Long Island, Rum Cay, San Salvador Island, Crooked Island, Samana Cays and Mayaguana Island during Wednesday afternoon and Wednesday night.

Those of you in the southeastern Bahamas need to get ready now for a pretty hard hit from a hurricane & take it seriously.

Bermuda: It is looking pretty likely now that Melissa will impact Bermuda as a hurricane on Thursday night at possibly Category 2 strength.

This means that hurricane force winds, extremely heavy rain & rough surf is quite possible in Bermuda during Thursday night & I urge all interests on the island to monitor the progress of Melissa extremely closely.

Satellite Imagery:

The next tropical weather discussion will be issued on Monday.

We will be superseding our full weather discussions with much shorter updates on Melissa until the hurricane is no longer a major threat.

Major Hurricane Melissa: Melissa underwent explosive strengthening last night with the hurricane intensifying from a minimal hurricane early Saturday afternoon to a 140 mph Category 4 hurricane as of this morning. The amount of strengthening is double the threshold of what’s needed for rapid strengthening. This means that the rate of strengthening that Melissa underwent is at the upper limits of what’s ever been observed in the Atlantic.

It seems that Melissa has now taken a pause in strengthening as of the time of this writing. The reason for this seems to have to do with some westerly wind shear that may be interrupting the outflow associated with Melissa. That said, reconnaissance aircraft are finding winds of between 140 and 150 mph inside Melissa during their last flight. It seems as if Melissa is still a very formidable Category 4 hurricane.

Melissa is now moving towards the west at a forward speed of barely 4 mph as of today. It is expected that this westward movement will continue throughout the rest of today into Monday as the hurricane is guided by a high pressure ridge located to the north.

As we get into later Monday and Monday night, an upper level trough of low pressure pushing into the southeastern United States will begin to pick Melissa up and turn it to the north and northeast, especially on Tuesday.

This means that Melissa will turn sharply to the north and then northeast & move directly over the island of Jamaica as a Category 4 to Category 5 hurricane during Tuesday morning. Melissa is then expected to move over eastern Cuba by Tuesday night as a major hurricane and across the southeastern Bahamas during the day on Wednesday as a hurricane.

Jamaica: This continues to look like a worst case scenario in terms of a hurricane hit. Please prepare for this hurricane as if it is the worst hurricane you have ever experienced, because it will be.

Tropical storm force winds are expected to begin to impact Jamaica as we get into this afternoon and this evening. Tropical storm conditions will then continue throughout all of tonight and all of Monday.

The core of Major Hurricane Melissa containing at least Category 4 strength winds will hit Jamaica directly from Monday night through Tuesday. Landfall on the island looks to occur during Tuesday morning.

It should be noted that both of the very high resolution HAFS hurricane models are forecasting a peak intensity at landfall with these models forecasting Melissa having maximum winds of 170 to 175 mph. A majority of the Google Deep Mind AI ensemble models forecast a landfall intensity of Category 4 strength, however, a few members forecast Category 5 intensity.

Melissa is going to be moving over Jamaica from south to north & because of this, it will produce a catastrophic storm surge of 9 to 13 feet along Jamaica’s south shore, including Kingston Harbor and Norman Manley International Airport.

If that wasn’t enough, heavy and persistent rain will overspread Jamaica this afternoon from east to west. Once the rain begins to fall, it will not stop for about 3 days or so. Because of this, widespread rainfall totals of 20 to 30 inches (500 to 750 mm) are expected across much of Jamaica. Up to 40 inches (1000 mm) of total rainfall looks likely on the eastern side of Jamaica. These extreme rainfall totals will lead to catastrophic flooding and numerous landslides throughout the next several days.

The impacts from Melissa in terms of Category 4 to Category 5 strength winds, a very high storm surge & catastrophic flooding from rainfall could be one of Jamaica’s most destructive hurricanes.

Once again, if you are on the island of Jamaica, I implore you to take this hurricane extremely seriously. If you have friends or relatives on the island, please tell them to take this hurricane extremely seriously.

Extensive damage to infrastructure, long duration power and communication outages and complete isolation of communities are all expected with Melissa.

Make absolutely sure that you are in a very sturdy and safe building & be aware that you will be in that shelter for several days. Also be aware that you are going to be without power or any forms of communication to the outside world for potentially weeks.

Haiti: Catastrophic and life-threatening flash flooding and landslides are expected across southwestern Haiti over the next few days. This will lead to extensive infrastructural damage and isolation of communities.

Eastern Cuba & The Southeastern Bahamas: Once Melissa passes across Jamaica, it will speed up in its forward motion & cross eastern Cuba, the southeastern Bahamas and the Turks and Caicos on Tuesday night and Wednesday as a major hurricane.

This means that a significant storm surge, hurricane to major hurricane force winds and heavy rainfall can be expected across eastern Cuba on Tuesday night and then across the southeastern Bahamas on Wednesday.

Those of you in eastern Cuba and the southeastern Bahamas need to get ready for a pretty hard hit from a hurricane. Please take this hurricane very seriously if you are in eastern Cuba and the southeastern Bahamas.

Bermuda: It remains quite possible that Melissa could impact Bermuda as a hurricane on Thursday night. I urge all interests on the island to monitor the progress of Melissa extremely closely.

Model Track Forecast:

Satellite Imagery:

The next tropical weather discussion will be issued on Monday.

Reconnaissance aircraft investigating Melissa are finding that it is rapidly strengthening this evening. In fact, the most recent reports from them indicate that it is at least a 105-110 mph hurricane right now, even though the 8 pm advisory showed 100 mph maximum winds.

It is extremely evident on satellite imagery that Melissa is wrapping up quickly and it is now undergoing rapid strengthening. I fully expect it to be a major Category 3 hurricane by either late tonight or sometime on Sunday morning. Even more rapid strengthening will likely occur as we get into later Sunday and Monday & because of this, it looks extremely likely now that Melissa will be a Category 4 or Category 5 hurricane when it directly impacts Jamaica on Tuesday.

We are now witnessing what will likely be a worst-case hurricane scenario for Jamaica. It is expected that Jamaica will see 48 consecutive hours of tropical storm force to hurricane force winds & extremely heavy rain starting tomorrow (Sunday). This will lead to the potential for catastrophic rainfall induced flooding & mudslides before the Category 4 or Category 5 hurricane conditions reach the island.

Those winds of up to Category 4 to Category 5 strength look to impact Jamaica during the day on Tuesday & this will lead to major to extreme damage on the island. A very large storm surge is also expected on the south coast of Jamaica.

It cannot be emphasized enough that this could be the strongest hurricane to ever directly hit the island in recorded history.

I implore those of you on the island of Jamaica to take this hurricane extremely seriously. If you have family or relatives on the island, please tell them to take this hurricane extremely seriously. Make absolutely sure that you are in a very sturdy and safe building & be aware that you will be in that shelter for at least 4 days straight.

A new full discussion on Melissa will be sent out around midday Sunday. Short updates on this hurricane will be sent out as needed.