Invest 91-L Located Over The Bay Of Campeche: Satellite imagery and other weather analysis indicates that there is a low pressure system located over the Bay of Campeche, which is now designated Invest 91-L by the National Hurricane Center. For now, the convection associated with Invest 91-L is disorganized from the Bay of Campeche into the western Gulf of Mexico.
All indications from the model guidance are that Invest 91-L will likely develop into a tropical depression and then a tropical storm once we get into about Monday and Tuesday. For now though, I think that we will probably see slow development as the energy and moisture from once was Invest 90-L pushes to the south and combines with the circulation, energy and moisture of Invest 91-L and this should take about a day or so to occur.
By about Monday, it looks probable that Invest 91-L will start to head northward from the Bay of Campeche and the southwestern Gulf of Mexico where it’ll likely develop and strengthen. The question then becomes how much Invest 91-L will strengthen before it makes landfall sometime between late Wednesday and early Thursday over the southwestern parts of Louisiana.
The environmental conditions over the western and northwestern Gulf of Mexico during the first half of next week will be somewhat favorable for strengthening. On one hand, wind shear values are likely to be favorable for strengthening and obviously the Gulf waters are more than warm enough to support strengthening. On the other hand, there’s likely to be quite a bit of dry air on the western side of this system thanks to a cold front which will be pushing towards the Texas coast the rest of this weekend. Any dry air will likely hinder quick strengthening.
First and foremost, it isn’t going to take much at all for Invest 91-L to become a depression and then Tropical Storm Francine. Because of this, I urge all interests along coastal Texas and coastal Louisiana to prepare for at least tropical storm impacts from Tuesday to Thursday.
My take though is that Invest 91-L will slowly evolve and develop the rest of this weekend becoming a depression probably on Monday when it’s located due east of the coast of eastern Mexico.
Beyond this, the forecast track and strength of Invest 91-L becomes a little more uncertain with guidance such as the European model forecasting a slowly strengthening storm that heads for the Texas-Louisiana border by Thursday morning. On the other hand, model guidance such as the GFS, ICON and the European AIFS model showing a faster strengthening storm that heads for the Lafayette and Morgan City areas by Wednesday night.
This leads to a very challenging forecast as the upper level pattern over the northern Gulf of Mexico would support a storm traveling from southwest to northeast to be in a zone of very low wind shear. On the other hand, a storm heading from south to north would be battling wind shear a little more.
This means that the further west Invest 91-L tracks, the weaker it’ll probably be. On the other hand, a further east track would lead to Invest 91-L staying over the Gulf of Mexico longer within an environment that’s favorable for strengthening and because of this, we’d see a stronger storm if it travels further east.
Here Are My Thoughts: I do think that the center of what will be Francine will probably head for the south-central coast of Louisiana for a landfall that occurs on Wednesday night somewhere on the western side of Vermilion Bay as a 55 to 70 mph tropical storm. That said, I do think that this system will be strengthening right through landfall and because of this, it’s quite possible it could make landfall as a 75-85 mph hurricane. Also, with this system potentially strengthening right through landfall means that stronger wind gusts will be able to mix down to the ground quite easily, much like what we saw when Beryl made landfall back in early July.
This means that those of you along the Texas coast and especially the Louisiana coast should monitor the progress of this system very closely.
My advice to those of you along the Louisiana coast is to make sure your hurricane kits and up-to-date and be ready for at least tropical storm conditions and very possibly hurricane conditions from Wednesday into Thursday.
As for those of you along the Texas coast, I think areas along the upper Texas coast are at most risk from this system from Tuesday through Wednesday. Flooding from surge and rainfall seem to be the highest threat across the upper Texas coast. Being on the western side of Invest 91-L, I suspect that wind impacts shouldn’t be that bad as compared to areas along the southern Louisiana coast.
Bottom line is that I am keeping very close tabs on the progress of Invest 91-L and I will have many more updates in the coming days. My advice is that those of you along coastal Texas and especially coastal Louisiana to monitor things closely.
Forecast Rainfall Amounts For Next Week:
Model Track Forecast:
Satellite Imagery:
The next tropical weather discussion will be issued on Sunday.