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Summary: A round of thunderstorms, some strong to severe, is expected to affect the Florida Panhandle during the first half of Sunday afternoon & then affect north Florida during late Sunday afternoon and Sunday evening. These severe thunderstorms will be capable of producing damaging wind gusts and a couple of tornadoes.

These thunderstorms, some of them strong in intensity with the threat for damaging winds, are expected to affect central Florida towards midnight on Sunday night.

Details: An area of low pressure is expected to quickly track eastward across northern Mississippi, northern Alabama and northern Georgia during the day on Sunday. A cold front is expected to extend southward from this low pressure system & is expected to cross Florida from northwest to southeast during Sunday and Sunday night.

The environmental conditions out ahead of this front will be fairly unstable, along with fairly robust amounts of low level wind shear present. This means that conditions look to be favorable for severe weather during Sunday afternoon and early Sunday evening across the Florida Panhandle and across north Florida. These favorable conditions for severe weather may extend as far south as the I-4 corridor in central Florida.

Thunderstorms look to initially push into the western Florida Panhandle during the early and mid morning hours of Sunday. It is anticipated that these thunderstorms will strengthen & become strong to severe as they push into the eastern Florida Panhandle by early Sunday afternoon. Given the favorable environmental conditions, including a fairly unstable air mass and robust low-level wind shear, some of the severe thunderstorms over the eastern Florida Panhandle will be capable of producing damaging wind gusts and a couple of tornadoes.

These strong to severe thunderstorms are then expected to push into north Florida during late Sunday afternoon and early Sunday evening. This includes Gainesville and Jacksonville. The environmental conditions are expected to remain favorable for any severe thunderstorms to produce damaging wind gusts and a couple of tornadoes.

By about midnight Sunday night, these thunderstorms should begin gradually weakening as they push through the I-4 corridor in central Florida. Still though, strong thunderstorms with some very gusty winds will be a threat across central Florida right around midnight Sunday night.

The thunderstorms then will continue to weaken as they push into south Florida during the predawn hours of Monday morning.

Finally For Those Of You Across East Texas & Louisiana – It appears that severe weather will be a threat starting across east Texas late this afternoon and then spreading across Louisiana during the overnight hours of tonight.

Thunderstorms are expected to strengthen across east Texas by late this afternoon & may pose a risk for damaging winds as they consolidate into a squall line.

This squall line of strong to severe thunderstorms will cross Louisiana from west to east during the overnight hours of tonight. Current indications are that this squall line will first affect western Louisiana during this evening & through the midnight hour. This squall line looks to then push into central Louisiana around midnight tonight and then reach eastern and southeastern Louisiana between about 1 am and 4 am Sunday morning. Damaging winds look to be the main threat from this squall line. That said, a risk for a few tornadoes will also be a threat with this squall line.

It’s been quite a cold winter thus far across the Great Lakes, the northeastern United States & the Mid-Atlantic states. December and January have had well below average temperatures across the northeastern United States, the Great Lakes and the northern Plains states.

December Temperatures As Compared To Average:

January Temperatures As Compared To Average:

As for snow, a majority of the snow so far has been confined to the northern Plains states, the Great Lakes, the Ohio Valley, the Mid-Atlantic states & the Northeastern US.

It should be noted that last night’s major winter storm significantly impacted a large part of North Carolina and parts of South Carolina with upwards of over a foot of snow. Severe blizzard conditions occurred last night on the North Carolina Outer Banks. Also, as expected, snow flurries were observed as far south as Tampa & even into parts of southwest Florida. Without a doubt, this was a historic storm that’ll probably not happen again for a long time.

Snow Totals So Far This Winter (Note – Last Night’s Carolina Winter Storm Is Not Included In These Totals):

Looking Ahead To The Month Of February – It looks like it’s going to be a cold month across much of the eastern United States with a majority of this cold centered across the Mid-Atlantic states and northeastern United States.

It also looks as though we are far from being done with snow as longer range weather guidance are pointing towards the potential for quite a snowy month across the northeastern United States.

So, for those of you in the eastern United States that are sick of winter, I’m sorry!! Winter looks to hang on for at least another month.

February Temperature Outlook:

Possible Snow Amounts During The Month Of February (Ignore The Snow Amounts In The Carolinas As This Model Was Run Yesterday & Included The Big Storm):

It’s going to be quite a wild weekend of wintry weather across the Southeastern United States. Everything from historic cold temperatures across Florida to heavy snow across the Carolinas to even blizzard conditions across the North Carolina Outer Banks.

A Carolina Snowstorm Is Expected This Weekend: A low pressure system is expected to form off of the North Carolina coast on Friday night into Saturday & then rapidly strengthen as it begins its northeast trek. This storm system is expected to combine with a record cold air mass to produce a full-blown snowstorm across the Carolinas this weekend. As that storm system rapidly strengthens, it will produce strong northerly winds leading to blizzard conditions across coastal parts of North Carolina and the North Carolina Outer Banks this weekend.

Snow is expected to overspread the Carolinas and southern Virginia during Friday night and then continue through Saturday and Saturday night before ending on Sunday morning. Widespread snow amounts of over 6 inches are expected across all of southern Virginia, all of North Carolina and across northeastern parts of South Carolina. Up to 8 to 12 inches of snow accumulation looks likely across southern Virginia, central and especially eastern North Carolina and northeastern South Carolina.

Across eastern North Carolina, the North Carolina outer banks & southeastern Virginia, strong north winds gusting up to 40-50 mph will combine with the snow to produce blizzard conditions during Saturday afternoon and Saturday night.

Historically Frigid Cold Temperatures Are Expected Across Florida On Sunday & Monday: A historic outbreak of cold temperatures is still expected to impact the Florida Peninsula during Sunday and Monday. It is likely that some of the coldest temperatures since 2010 can be expected across Florida on Sunday and Monday.

Low temperatures on both Sunday morning and Monday morning will range from the teens to low 20s across the Florida Panhandle to the low to mid 20s across all of north Florida and all of Central Florida, including the Orlando area and the I-4 corridor. Low temperatures across South Florida on Sunday morning and Monday morning will be in the low to middle 30s and this does include Miami. These temperatures would likely smash record low temperatures across the entire state on both Sunday morning and Monday.

The cold on Sunday and Monday is very likely to be a destructive and costly freeze for crop growers across all of Florida. Those of you who grow crops need to start your freeze preparations now.

To add insult to injury, wind chill temperatures will be in the single numbers across the Florida Panhandle and north Florida, the teens across Central Florida and the 20s across South Florida during Sunday and Monday.

This is the real deal & those of you across Florida are going to need to protect pipes, plants, pets and people from the very cold temperatures.

Finally, there continues to be the possibility of Gulf effect snow flurries and snow showers to occur late Saturday night into Sunday morning across the area along the I-4 corridor from Tampa to Orlando. A plume of low-level moisture may push eastward off of the Gulf during late Saturday night and Sunday morning leading to the possibility of snow flurries and snow showers that might actually deposit a light dusting of snow in some areas.

A historic outbreak of cold temperatures is expected to impact the Florida Peninsula during Sunday and Monday. It is likely that some of the coldest temperatures since 2010 can be expected across Florida on Sunday and Monday.

Low temperatures on both Sunday morning and Monday morning will range from the teens across the Florida Panhandle to the 20s across all of north Florida and all of Central Florida, including the Orlando area and the I-4 corridor. Low temperatures across South Florida on Sunday morning and Monday morning will be in the 30s and this does include Miami. These temperatures would likely smash record low temperatures across the entire state on both Sunday morning and Monday.

The cold on Sunday and Monday is very likely to be a destructive and costly freeze for crop growers across all of Florida. Those of you who grow crops need to start your freeze preparations as soon as possible.

To add insult to injury, wind chill temperatures will be in the single numbers across the Florida Panhandle and north Florida, the teens across Central Florida and the 20s across South Florida during Sunday and Monday.

This is the real deal & those of you across Florida are going to need to protect pipes, plants, pets and people from the very cold temperatures.

Finally, there is also the possibility of Gulf effect snow flurries and snow showers to occur late Saturday night into Sunday morning across the area along the I-4 corridor from Tampa to Orlando. A plume of low-level moisture may push eastward off of the Gulf during late Saturday night and Sunday morning leading to the possibility of snow flurries and snow showers.

Forecast Low Temperatures Sunday Morning:

Forecast Low Temperatures Monday Morning:

Maybe Some Snow Flurries & Snow Showers Late Saturday Night & Sunday Morning From Tampa To Orlando:

It continues to look as though a major, high impact winter storm will impact many from Oklahoma and parts of Texas eastward through the Tennessee Valley, parts of Mississippi, Alabama, Georgia to much of the East Coast of the United States.

I’m going to try to detail it out a bit more region by region for you:

Oklahoma & Texas: 6 or more inches of snow is expected across much of Oklahoma with 1 to 3 inches of snow accumulation expected across much of north Texas.

Ice amounts of up to one quarter of an inch is expected across southern Oklahoma. One quarter to one half of an inch of ice accumulation is expected across much of north Texas with one tenth to one quarter of an inch of ice expected across central Texas.

Timeline on this is it begins Friday evening and continues through all of Friday night, all day Saturday, all night Saturday night and ends on Sunday morning.

Arkansas & Louisiana: 6 or more inches of snow accumulation is expected across northern Arkansas with 3 to 6 inches of snow accumulation expected across central Arkansas. 1 to 2 inches of snow accumulation is expected across southern Arkansas and northern Louisiana.

Ice accumulations of up to one half of an inch is expected across central and southern Arkansas and across northern Louisiana. One tenth to one quarter of an inch of ice accumulation is expected across central Arkansas.

Timeline is that the winter storm begins during Friday evening and continues through all of Friday night, all day Saturday, all night Saturday night and ends on Sunday morning.

Mississippi: Up to 1 inch of snow is expected across far northern and northwestern Mississippi.

Much more importantly, a full-blown potentially destructive ice storm is expected across northern Mississippi with one quarter of an inch to one half of an inch of ice expected. This includes Tupelo and Greenville.

Across central Mississippi, ice amounts of one tenth to one quarter of an inch of ice is expected. This includes Jackson.

Timeline is that the winter storm begins during Saturday morning and continues through all of Saturday afternoon, all of Saturday night and all of Sunday morning. The winter storm looks to come to an end during Sunday afternoon.

Alabama: The main impacts from this winter storm will be across far northern Alabama, especially around Huntsville and Florence where ice amounts of one tenth of an inch to two tenths of an inch can be expected from Saturday morning until Sunday morning.

Georgia: Ice is going to be a big time problem over northeastern Georgia where cold air damming will lock in sub-freezing temperatures near the surface & prolong the freezing rain. Ice amounts of one quarter of an inch to one third of an inch is expected across northeastern Georgia, including Athens.

Across the rest of northern Georgia, ice amounts of around one tenth of an inch can be expected.

Timeline of this occurring looks to be starting Saturday afternoon. The winter storm is then expected to continue through all of Saturday night, all day Sunday and then come to an end during Sunday evening.

South Carolina: Upstate parts of South Carolina are likely to see an ice storm with ice amounts of around one third of an inch expected. Central parts of South Carolina will see a little less in the way of ice with ice amounts of one tenth to two tenths of an inch expected.

The winter storm looks to begin during Saturday evening and then continue through the overnight hours of Saturday night. The winter storm then looks to continue through all day Sunday before coming to an end during Sunday evening.

North Carolina: It appears that an ice storm is going to impact much of the state beginning Saturday evening and then continuing through the overnight hours of Saturday night and all day Sunday. The ice storm then looks to come to an end during Sunday evening.

Ice amounts of one third of an inch to one half of an inch can be expected across a large part of North Carolina. Areas near the coast and the outer banks will likely stay as all rain & not be impacted as much by freezing rain.

Virginia, Maryland & Delaware: This looks to be mainly a heavy snowfall for much of Maryland, Delaware and Virginia with 8 to 16 inches of snow expected. That said, freezing rain will also impact southern parts of Virginia leading to up to one half of an inch of ice.

This storm looks to begin during Saturday evening and then continue throughout all of Saturday night, all day Sunday and all of Sunday night. The storm looks to come to an end sometime early Monday morning.

Pennsylvania & New Jersey: This looks to be a big time snowstorm for much of Pennsylvania and New Jersey. Snow totals of 12 to 18 inches with locally higher amounts can be expected across this entire area.

This storm looks to begin during the late night hours of Saturday night and then continue through all day Sunday, all of Sunday night and much of Monday. The storm looks to come to an end sometime later Monday afternoon.

New York: This is going to be a big time snowstorm for much of central, southern and southeastern New York State. Snow totals of 12 to 18 inches with locally higher amounts can be expected across central, southern and southeastern New York State.

This storm looks to begin during Sunday morning and then continue through all of Sunday afternoon, all of Sunday night and all of Monday. The storm looks to come to an end sometime during Monday evening.

New England: Central and southern Vermont, central and southern New Hampshire, central and southern Maine, all of Massachusetts, all of Connecticut and all of Rhode Island looks to receive a big snowstorm. Snow totals of 12 to 18 inches with locally higher amounts can be expected across these parts of New England.

This storm looks to begin during Sunday morning and then continue through all of Sunday afternoon, all of Sunday night and all of Monday. The storm looks to come to an end sometime during Monday evening.

All indications are pointing towards the increasing likelihood of a high impact winter storm that’ll impact parts of the Southern and Southeastern United States, as well as across the Mid-Atlantic states this weekend. The consistency in the various model guidance in showing this could end up being a destructive ice storm for the I-20 corridor and upwards of 3 to 6 inches of snow across the Tennessee Valley. In addition, this storm could very well bring 1 to 2 feet of snow to parts of the Mid-Atlantic states, including Washington, DC, Baltimore and Philadelphia.

The most worrying part of this weekend’s winter storm is going to be the potential for a very destructive ice storm along the I-20 corridor, including Dallas, Shreveport and Atlanta. Given the data that I’m looking at right now, this could end up being a very high-impact ice storm leading to the crippling of travel, major power outages and widespread tree damage. Those of you in the areas from Dallas through Shreveport, Atlanta to Charlotte need to prepare the same way as you would for a hurricane. This includes buying non-perishable food, water, gas, and charge devices. It wouldn’t be a bad idea to trim those vulnerable tree limbs close to your home. You can absolutely forget about travel anywhere near and north of I-20. Be aware that some ice impacts could occur as far south as I-10 in southeastern Texas and western Louisiana, but the huge ice impacts will occur the closer you get to I-20.

This entire storm looks start over the Deep South as early as late Friday night and continue throughout Saturday and Saturday night before slowly winding down on Sunday.

Across the Mid-Atlantic states, this storm looks to begin on Saturday morning and continue throughout Saturday afternoon, Saturday night and Sunday. This storm will then slowly wind down on Sunday night and Monday.

Forecast Winter Weather Impacts This Weekend (Travel IS NOT Recommended In Areas In Yellow & Red):

Forecast Ice Accumulations For This Weekend:

Forecast Snow Amounts This Weekend:

The snow that occurred last night into this morning from the Florida Panhandle into parts of Alabama and Georgia looks to be an appetizer for a much bigger winter storm threat next weekend across a large part of the Deep South.

All of the major model guidance, including the GFS, European and Canadian models seem to agree that the potential is there for a widespread, high impact snow and ice event next weekend across the Deep South, including central and north Texas, northern Louisiana, much of Arkansas, central and northern Mississippi, northern Alabama, central and northern Georgia and much of the Carolinas.

A wave of low pressure may form over the northern Gulf is currently forecast to form over the Gulf on Saturday of next weekend. This low pressure system may then lift northeastward and head near the coastal Carolinas by next Sunday and next Monday. Cold air pressing southward into the Deep South may run into precipitation and moisture associated with this low pressure system leading to the possibility of winter weather impacts across parts of the Deep South next weekend.

At this point, it is way too soon to get into much more details than this. For now, consider this a heads up and be aware that snow and freezing rain could be a threat across central and north Texas, northern Louisiana, much of Arkansas, central and northern Mississippi, northern Alabama, central and northern Georgia and much of the Carolinas next weekend leading to potential serious disruptions.

A Serious Freezing Rain Threat Could Occur Across Parts Of The Deep South Next Weekend

Snow Also Looks To Be A Possible Threat Next Weekend In Parts Of The South:

Summary: Severe thunderstorms are expected on Friday from the central Gulf coast into parts of the lower Mississippi Valley and the Tennessee Valley. Damaging winds and a few tornadoes look to be the main threat. The area of most concern looks to be across much of Louisiana, central and southern Mississippi and western Alabama.

Details: An area of low pressure is expected to push across the Great Lakes region and towards southeastern Canada during the day on Friday. A cold front is expected to extend southwestward from this low pressure system. This frontal system is expected to push eastward across the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys during Friday.

It is expected that the area of most concern in terms of severe weather will lie from the central Gulf coast into the lower Mississippi Valley and the Tennessee Valley. It is expected that a strengthening area of low-level warm and humid air will lift northward ahead of the front and cover much of the lower Mississippi Valley during Friday. This, in turn, will lead to an increase in strong to severe thunderstorms by Friday afternoon with this severe weather threat continuing through Friday evening.

The area of relative maximized severe weather with damaging winds and a few tornadoes looks to be across much of Louisiana, central and southern Mississippi and western Alabama during Friday afternoon and Friday evening.

As I mentioned yesterday, this does not look like any sort of a severe weather outbreak. Instead, this just looks to be one of the first severe weather events of 2026 across the Deep South.

Summary: Severe weather is a possibility on Friday across the lower Mississippi Valley and across parts of the Tennessee Valley. Damaging winds and perhaps a few tornadoes look to be the main threat.

Details: An area of low pressure is expected to push into the Great Lakes region by Friday. A frontal system is expected to extend southward from that low pressure system into the Ohio Valley and the ArkLaTex region.

Out ahead of this front, warm and somewhat humid air is expected to push northward across the Deep South as we get into Friday.

A line of strong to severe thunderstorms capable of producing damaging winds and possibly a tornado is expected to push eastward during the morning across the lower Mississippi Valley and in particular across southern Arkansas and much of Louisiana.

As we get into the mid and late afternoon hours of Friday and Friday evening, an area of low pressure may form along this front and track across the Tennessee Valley. The formation of this low pressure will help to strengthen the amount of low-level moist air that pushes northward from the Gulf. Because of this, an increase in the severity of thunderstorms is expected from late Friday afternoon through Friday evening leading to a risk of damaging winds and a few tornadoes across southwestern Tennessee, much of Mississippi and northern Alabama.

One thing that I do want to stress is that this is not looking like any sort of severe weather outbreak, but instead the first severe weather threat of 2026 across the Deep South.

There is some possibility of severe weather during the day on Friday across the lower Mississippi Valley, as well as across parts of the Tennessee Valley and the lower Ohio Valley.

The weather maker that could produce this severe weather is going to be a strong low pressure system that’s expected to head northeastward from the southern Plains states on Thursday to the Great Lakes region by Friday. In addition to the severe weather, this strong storm system is also likely to bring heavy rain to the Plains states and snow to parts of the Rocky Mountains by the middle part of this week.

As this storm system moves into the Great Lakes, plenty of low-level moisture will surge northward from the Gulf leading to a somewhat favorable setup for severe weather. One factor that might be lacking is the amount of forcing and unstable air that might be available to tap into. Should this factor not pan out, then the severe weather risk may end up not being all that robust.

For now though, I do think that there is enough evidence in the data to support the potential for severe weather on Friday across northern Louisiana, eastern Arkansas, northern Mississippi, far northern Alabama, much of Tennessee, much of Kentucky, southern Illinois, southern Indiana and southern Ohio.

This will be something to keep an eye on as the week progresses.