Tropical Storm Alberto: We now have Tropical Storm Alberto in the western Gulf of Mexico as the shape of the coastline around the Bay of Campeche is working its magic in spinning up this system. The curved coastline of the Bay of Campeche is helping to tighten up the low-level circulation of Alberto with satellite imagery showing a curved band of deep thunderstorm activity thats paralleling the coast of the Bay of Campeche.
Reports from reconnaissance aircraft indicate that there are 40-45 mph maximum winds occurring with Alberto and the central barometric pressure is about 995 millibars. It would not surprise me to see Alberto strengthen a bit more as the environmental conditions are favorable for strengthening. One factor that might hinder strengthening is its large overall size, which can slow the rate of strengthening.
Alberto is expected to head westward and come ashore very near Tampico, Mexico late tonight or during Thursday morning as perhaps a 50 mph or so tropical storm.
The main impact from Alberto will be heavy rainfall with the threat for flash flooding across northeastern Mexico and south Texas through Thursday. Additional rainfall amounts the rest of today through Thursday will be in the 4 to 8 inch range across northeastern Mexico and south Texas, including Brownsville, Laredo and Corpus Christi.
Continued coastal flooding is going to be a threat along the entire Texas coast the rest of today through Thursday. The area most likely to see at least moderate amounts of coastal flooding with up to a 4 foot storm surge will be an area from Sabine Pass to Matagorda Bay and this includes Galveston. In fact, significant flooding has already occurred this morning in Surfside Beach and also in Matagorda. I anticipate more of the same in the way of coastal flooding right through Thursday.
Model Track Forecast:
Satellite Imagery:
Western Gulf Of Mexico Tropical Development Possible This Weekend: It still looks quite possible that we will see another broad low pressure system form right behind Alberto over the southern Gulf of Mexico this weekend. It’s possible that this new system could develop into a tropical depression over the western Gulf of Mexico around Sunday or Monday. Once again, the shape of the Bay of Campeche may help to spin this system up and it’s not out of the question we could see a low-end tropical storm develop by early next week.
The upper level weather pattern of a high pressure ridge to the north of this system should cause this system to head west or west-northwestward into northeastern Mexico by later Monday or Tuesday.
The main threat looks to be the production of additional heavy rainfall across eastern and northeastern Mexico and South Texas early next week. It’s something to keep an eye on.
Area Of Disturbed Weather Located To The East Of The Bahamas: I’m still keeping an eye on an area of disturbed weather that’s located over the southwestern North Atlantic to the east of the Bahamas. Satellite imagery indicates that this disturbed weather is producing disorganized convection and the environmental conditions are not really favorable for development.
This area of disturbed weather is expected to be pushed westward by a big high pressure system to the north. This should bring this disturbance inland along the US Southeast Coast between South Carolina and northeast Florida by Friday.
The only real impacts from this system will be an enhancement in the shower and thunderstorm activity across north and northeast Florida, southern and southeastern Georgia and eastern South Carolina during the day on Friday. Gusty onshore winds are also expected the rest of this week through this weekend on the beaches from eastern North Carolina to eastern Florida.
The next tropical weather discussion will be issued on Thursday.