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Tropical Storm Melissa: Reconnaissance aircraft investigating Melissa this morning have found that it is very close to hurricane strength & probably will become one by the end of today. While some westerly shear is still affecting Melissa, it is still undergoing steady strengthening. All indications are pointing towards Melissa rapidly strengthening over the next couple of days or so. I do think that Melissa will become at least a Category 3 and then Category 4 hurricane by Sunday and Monday & it is even possible that it could reach Category 5 intensity before it moves directly over Jamaica on Tuesday.

Jamaica – This looks to be a worst case scenario in terms of a hurricane hit for you!! Catastrophic flooding and mudslides are expected starting later today and continuing through Sunday, Monday and Tuesday. If that wasn’t enough, hurricane-force winds of up to Category 3 to Category 4 strength and a large storm surge is expected to impact the island for a long duration of time. The worst of the wind and surge impacts expected all day Monday, all night Monday night and all day Tuesday.

Eastern Cuba & The Central & Southeastern Bahamas – Significant hurricane impacts are expected in eastern Cuba and the central and southeastern Bahamas during the middle parts of next week.

Why am I pulling out all of the stops when warning about the severe impacts from Melissa? Most, if not all of the model guidance are now forecasting that Melissa will track to a position due south of Melissa late Sunday and Sunday night. This is followed by most of the track models forecasting a turn northward from due south of Jamaica starting on Monday leading to a very high chance of a direct hit on Jamaica by a major hurricane during the day on Tuesday.

Over 80 percent of Google’s Deep Mind ensemble members now show Melissa strengthening into a Category 4 to Category 5 hurricane & then impacts the island at this intensity on Tuesday. Given that the Deep Mind model has done very well with other established storms so far this season, this is very concerning.

What’s going to make Melissa so impactful is the fact that there will be several days of tropical storm force winds and extremely heavy rain that precedes the worst of the hurricane. Tropical storm and hurricane conditions and extremely heavy rain look to impact Jamaica for 72 to 96 consecutive hours.

Beyond Jamaica, Melissa is expected to make a second landfall in eastern Cuba late Tuesday night or Wednesday morning and then a third landfall in the southeastern Bahamas and the Turks and Caicos during the day on Wednesday. Severe hurricane impacts are quite possible for both eastern Cuba and the southeastern Bahamas.

Those Of You In Jamaica: I cannot emphasize or stress enough that this is going to be an extremely bad hurricane hit on Jamaica. Severe impacts in the way of extremely strong winds and extremely heavy rain & catastrophic flooding are expected.

This is going to be a prolonged hurricane hit that lasts for between 72 and 96 consecutive hours. Yes, this means that there will be extremely heavy rainfall & tropical storm to hurricane-force winds on the islands for 3 to possibly 4 days straight! Rainfall totals on the order of 20 to 30 inches or more can be expected over a 4 day period & this is likely to lead to catastrophic flooding.

Even more concerning is that there is the potential for the core of the hurricane, which could contain between Category 3 and Category 4 winds (and maybe even Category 5 winds) to move directly over the island during the day on Tuesday as Melissa is pulled to the northeast & ultimately out of the Caribbean.

The impacts from Melissa in terms of both major hurricane conditions and catastrophic flooding could be one of Jamaica’s most destructive hurricanes.

Once again, if you are on the island of Jamaica, I implore you to take this hurricane extremely seriously. If you have friends or relatives on the island, please tell them to take this hurricane extremely seriously. Make absolutely sure that you are in a very sturdy and safe building & be aware that you will be in that shelter for upwards of 4 to 5 days straight.

For Those Of You In Eastern Cuba, The Central & Southeastern Bahamas & The Turks & Caicos: You might want to start getting ready for a major hurricane impact now, just in case. All of the reliable track model guidance seem to insist that eastern Cuba, the central & southeastern Bahamas and the Turks and Caicos may see major hurricane conditions on Tuesday and Wednesday.

This is something that should be taken extremely seriously if you are in eastern Cuba, the central & southeastern Bahamas and the Turks and Caicos.

Those Of You In Bermuda – It’s possible that Melissa could impact Bermuda late next week as the hurricane heads away from the Bahamas and into the open Atlantic. How close Melissa gets to Bermuda remains to be seen, but I urge all island interests to monitor the progress of Melissa extremely closely.

Model Track Forecast:

Satellite Imagery:

The next tropical weather discussion will be issued on Sunday.

Reconnaissance aircraft are currently investigating Melissa this evening and have found that the storm is now strengthening. Latest reports reveal that the central barometric pressure with Melissa has fallen to 991 to 993 millibars, which is a drop of 4 millibars from early this afternoon.

The main reason why I am sending out this update is to warn those of you on the island of Jamaica that a Category 4 or even Category 5 impact is very possible for you. Model guidance are now clustering around a scenario that includes a direct hit in Jamaica. Those of you in Jamaica & if you know someone that is on the island should be prepared for a very major to catastrophic hit in terms of extremely strong winds & catastrophic flooding.

Back to what Melissa is currently doing – After struggling with strong westerly wind shear for several days, Melissa is now finding itself in an environment of lower wind shear & this has allowed the storm to begin to align vertically & now steadily strengthen.

It is now looking very likely that we will see Melissa strengthen rapidly this weekend & it seems more likely that it will be a very major hurricane of perhaps Category 4 to even Category 5 strength as we get into Sunday and Monday when it’s tracking to the south of Jamaica.

For Those Of You On The Island Of Jamaica – This is looking like this is going to be a prolonged hurricane hit that lasts between 72 and 96 consecutive hours. Yes, this means that there will be extremely heavy rainfall & tropical storm to hurricane-force winds on the islands for 3 to possibly 4 days straight! Rainfall totals on the order of 20 to 30 inches or more can be expected over a 4 day period & this is likely to lead to catastrophic flooding.

Even more concerning is that there is the potential for the core of the hurricane, which could contain Category 4 to even Category 5 winds to move directly over the island during the day on Tuesday as Melissa is pulled to the northeast & ultimately out of the Caribbean.

The impacts from Melissa in terms of both major hurricane conditions and catastrophic flooding could be one of Jamaica’s most destructive hurricanes.

Once again, if you are on the island of Jamaica, I implore you to take this hurricane extremely seriously. If you have friends or relatives on the island, please tell them to take this hurricane extremely seriously. Make absolutely sure that you are in a very sturdy and safe building & be aware that you will be in that shelter for upwards of 4 to 5 days straight.

The next full update on Melissa will be sent out around midday tomorrow (Saturday). Shorter updates on Melissa will be sent out as needed.

Tropical Storm Melissa: Reconnaissance aircraft have been flying through Melissa all morning long. They have found that the deep convection associated with Melissa has tugged the low-level center to the east-southeast as compared to where it was located just last night. This has caused the storm to stack a little more with the low and mid-level centers aligned on top of one another. This increase in organization is probably the first step in the process where Melissa will probably strengthen quite a bit throughout this weekend. In fact, I do think that Melissa will probably become a hurricane as soon as sometime on Saturday and may become a major hurricane as early as late Sunday or sometime on Monday.

Melissa is currently caught in-between two competing high pressure systems leading it to be stuck in a weak steering environment. This means that Melissa will likely drift around with no clear direction throughout the rest of today right through Saturday.

Looking beyond Saturday, it appears that Melissa will track very slowly to the west as a high pressure ridge builds to the north of the storm. This very slow movement to the west is then expected to last through Sunday, Monday and Tuesday. A majority of the track model guidance show this occurring & it appears very likely that Melissa will be moving just to the south of Jamaica during Sunday, Monday and Tuesday.

At the same time this is happening, it is expected that the wind shear values over Melissa will become much more favorable for strengthening throughout this weekend. Additionally, Melissa will be moving through some extremely warm ocean waters near and south of Jamaica. This leads me to believe that Melissa will rapidly strengthen this weekend into early next week. The most recent SHIPS rapid intensity index is forecasting that there is a 40 percent chance that Melissa could strengthen into a hurricane in less than 24 hours from now & a 32 percent chance that Melissa may strengthen into a major hurricane within the next 3 days.

Jamaica Is In For A Prolonged Period Of Severe Impacts From Melissa That Lasts For Several Days: It is expected that Melissa will be moving very near or just south of Jamaica from Saturday until Tuesday while it is rapidly strengthening into a major hurricane. This will put the island dangerously close to its very damaging core during Sunday, Monday and Tuesday.

Even if the eyewall of Melissa stays south of Jamaica, hurricane-force winds and extremely heavy rain will still impact the island for a prolonged period of time starting on Saturday and potentially lasting through Tuesday. That’s potentially at least 72 hours of hurricane conditions & extremely heavy rain & this means that a severe very high-end hurricane impact is likely for Jamaica.

If that wasn’t enough, Melissa will turn to the northeast sometime on Tuesday, which means that major hurricane conditions could impact the island throughout Tuesday. This is in addition to the 48 to 72 hours of constant hurricane conditions that are expected on the island.

I cannot emphasize enough that Jamaica is very likely to be severely impacted by Melissa, both in the way of extremely strong winds and extremely heavy rain & catastrophic flooding. If you are on the island of Jamaica or have relatives or friends there, make sure you are in a very sturdy and safe shelter & be aware that you will be there for several days. Sadly, this is likely to end up being a humanitarian disaster for Jamaica.

A Strong Upper-Level Trough Will Pull Melissa Out Of The Caribbean Around Tuesday & Wednesday: It is expected that a strong upper-level trough of low pressure will drop into the Eastern United States by early next week. This weather feature is likely to be strong enough to grab Melissa and pull it out of the Caribbean between Tuesday and Wednesday.

This means that Melissa will probably track right over Jamaica on Tuesday and then across eastern Cuba and the central and southeastern Bahamas as potentially a very major hurricane on Tuesday night and Wednesday.

For Those Of You In Eastern Cuba, The Central & Southeastern Bahamas & The Turks & Caicos: You might want to start getting ready for a major hurricane impact now, just in case. All of the reliable track model guidance seem to insist that eastern Cuba, the central & southeastern Bahamas and the Turks and Caicos may see major hurricane conditions on Tuesday and Wednesday.

This is something that should be taken extremely seriously if you are in eastern Cuba, the central & southeastern Bahamas and the Turks and Caicos.

Finally, as Melissa is heading out away from the Bahamas and into the open Atlantic later next week, its possible that the island of Bermuda could be impacted by the storm around Thursday and Friday of next week. How close Melissa gets to Bermuda remains to be seen, but I urge all island interests to monitor the progress of Melissa extremely closely.

Model Track Forecast:

Satellite Imagery:

The next tropical weather discussion will be issued on Saturday.

Tropical Storm Melissa: Melissa is being impacted by west-southwesterly wind shear of up to 20-30 knots today & because of this the low-level center is partially exposed. In addition, this west-southwesterly wind shear is blowing the deepest convection to the east of the low-level center. As of right now, Melissa still has 50 mph maximum winds and a central barometric pressure of between 1003 millibars and 1006 millibars.

It is expected that this 20-30 knots of westerly wind shear will continue to impact Melissa through Friday. By this weekend though, the wind shear values are expected to decrease leading to the storm to undergo at least steady strengthening. There is the possibility that there could be a round of rapid strengthening this weekend into early next week as Melissa moves into an environment of lower wind shear values and extremely warm ocean waters. It should be noted that the SHIPS rapid intensity index is forecasting that there is a 22 percent chance of Melissa strengthening to a major hurricane within the next 3 days.

The forecast of where Melissa might track in relation to Jamaica, Cuba and Haiti remains uncertain as while it is expected that a high pressure ridge will build to the north of Melissa steering it to the west during this weekend, it is unclear as to how quickly that high pressure ridge will remain in place. If that high pressure ridge stays in place for a few days, it would lead to Melissa tracking to the south and southwest of Jamaica. On the other hand, if the high pressure ridge moves off to the east rather quickly, it would lead to a shorter westward track causing Melissa to track very near, if not right over Jamaica by early next week.

The most recent track model guidance for Melissa has trended towards a track that brings Melissa very close to, if not right over Jamaica, The Google Deep Mind ensemble guidance, which has done very well with other established tropical systems this season, forecasts that Melissa will be initially yanked to the northeast through Friday & then turn westward during this weekend. A large majority of the Deep Mind ensemble members show a track that takes Melissa extremely close to, if not right over Jamaica early next week followed by a track that brings Melissa over eastern Cuba during the middle part of next week followed by a path over the central and southeastern Bahamas

Here Are My Thoughts: I definitely think that we are going to see a very slow-moving meandering storm that very likely will become a hurricane within the next couple of days or so. There also seems to be the increasing chance that Melissa will track very close to, if not right over the island of Jamaica by early next week. This interaction with Jamaica could actually keep Melissa from strengthening into a very major hurricane. That said, I do think that Melissa will probably reach major hurricane status by early next week.

The slow-moving track near Jamaica combined with the mountainous terrain of the island is probably going to lead to major to catastrophic flooding across Jamaica, especially as we get into this weekend and next week. Serious flooding looks likely across parts of Haiti and eastern Cuba over the next several days or so.

Forecast Impacts For Jamaica, Haiti, The Dominican Republic, Eastern Cuba & The Bahamas: There is the very real threat for major to catastrophic flooding across Jamaica with similar flood issues possible across Haiti and the Dominican Republic over the next week or so.

Rainfall totals of 10 to 20 inches can be expected through this weekend across Jamaica. Additional rainfall totals of 10 to 20 more inches are possible across Jamaica during the first half of next week. This is, obviously, an extremely concerning situation for Jamaica as major to catastrophic flooding looks likely.

Additionally, tropical storm conditions are expected across Jamaica this weekend with hurricane conditions looking likely for Jamaica during the early part of next week.

As for the Dominican Republic, Haiti and eastern Cuba, rainfall totals of 3 to 6 inches can be expected across most of these areas. The exception looks to be along the south coast of the Dominican Republic and Haiti where 5 to 10 inches of total rainfall can be expected over the next week or so.

It goes without saying that I am extremely concerned for the island of Jamaica. Extreme precautions need to be put into place on the island to prepare for catastrophic flooding and hurricane-force winds.

Unfortunately, it may not be until about the middle part of next week that Melissa is pulled out of the Caribbean & sent northeastward. This would then put the Bahamas and especially the central and southeastern Bahamas at risk of hurricane conditions around the middle part of next week & it is something that I’m watching closely.

Bottom Line Is That late October tropical storms and hurricanes in the Caribbean are notorious for large errors in the forecast track as they can be extremely difficult to forecast. This means that more changes in the forecast track are possible as guidance adjust to what’s actually steering Melissa.

That being said, Jamaica, eastern Cuba, Haiti, the Dominican Republic, the Cayman Islands, the Bahamas and the Turks and Caicos need to keep very close tabs on the progress of Melissa & prepare for tropical storm and hurricane impacts – this particularly goes for those of you in Jamaica.

Model Track Forecast:

Satellite Imagery:

The next tropical weather discussion will be issued on Friday.

Tropical Storm Melissa: Even though Melissa is producing deep convection, most of this convection is being blown to the east of the low-level center. The reason for this is due to westerly wind shear of 20-30 knots impacting the storm. Because of this, any strengthening over the past 12-24 hours has been very slow. Still though, reconnaissance aircraft are finding that Melissa has 50 mph maximum winds and a central barometric pressure of 1000 millibars.

Melissa has slowed down to nearly a crawl today after racing to the west over the past few days. The reason why Melissa has slowed way down in forward speed to almost a stall is due to the fact that it’s caught in-between two high pressure systems. It is expected that Melissa will remain in this weak steering environment for at least the next several days, which means that Melissa will move very slowly in forward speed throughout the rest of this week right through this weekend.

I do think that Melissa may end up moving very slowly to the northwest over the next couple of days reaching the area to the southeast of Jamaica by Friday into Saturday where it should be a hurricane by then.

Beyond this, the forecast of where Melissa may go and how strong it may become gets much more complicated and uncertain. As I mentioned already, the steering currents around Melissa are expected to be very weak right through this weekend & probably even into next week. This means that I think that we will see Melissa drift around the west-central Caribbean for at least the next 7 days, if not longer. It may not be until the second half of next week that Melissa is pulled north and northeastward out of the Caribbean by a strong upper level trough pushing off of the Eastern Seaboard.

I do think that we’ll probably see Melissa move to the south of Jamaica during the first half of next week where the environmental and thermodynamic conditions will be extremely favorable for rapid strengthening.

Most of the intensity guidance are pointing towards a scenario where Melissa strengthens into a major Category 3-plus hurricane with even a few intensity members suggesting Melissa may reach Category 5 intensity. Given the potential for very favorable conditions south of Jamaica, this sort of strengthening is very much possible. These favorable conditions will include very warm ocean waters that go deep down; a large upper level high pressure system leading to low wind shear conditions; diverging upper level air, which will allow Melissa to “breathe” and a very moist environment with no dry air to be found.

This all means that by the first half of next week, we could have a major hurricane of somewhere between Category 3 and Category 5 strength sitting over the western Caribbean to the south and southwest of Jamaica. It also means that depending on its ultimate track, Melissa could directly impact Jamaica, central and eastern Cuba and some part of the Bahamas with significant to severe hurricane conditions as its pulled out of the Caribbean by that upper level trough.

Forecast Impacts For The Central & Western Caribbean: For now, extremely heavy rainfall with the potential for major flooding will be a big concern for parts of the islands of the central and western Caribbean. It’s possible that 10 to 20 inches (250 to 500 mm) of rain could occur in parts of the Dominican Republic, Haiti and Jamaica over the next week or so. This sort of rainfall could lead to major to catastrophic flooding.

We’re going to have to assess which Caribbean islands will be impacted by tropical storm and hurricane force winds over the next few days. For now, the island of Jamaica will probably see tropical storm force winds beginning on Saturday and lasting through this weekend and into at least early next week. It’s then possible that hurricane to major hurricane force winds could impact Jamaica, central and eastern Cuba and the central and southeastern Bahamas as we get into the middle parts of next week.

Bottom Line Is That for those of you in the central and western Caribbean, Melissa is going to be a big, big time problem for you for at least the next 7 days bringing extremely heavy rain and strong winds to many of you.

Model Track Forecast:

Satellite Imagery:

The next tropical weather discussion will be issued on Thursday.

Tropical Storm Melissa: The tropical disturbance that was once Invest 98-L has become organized enough today to be considered a tropical storm. Because of this, the National Hurricane Center has upgraded Invest 98-L to Tropical Storm Melissa.

Melissa has an organized deep convection and a well-defined low-level center with 50 mph maximum winds and central barometric pressure of 1003 millibars. Currently, Melissa is headed on a westerly course at a fairly quick pace. It is likely that Melissa will slow way down in forward speed and should put the brakes on as it reaches the area to the southeast of Jamaica in the next day or two.

There are all sorts of possibilities when it comes to where Melissa might end up tracking and how strong it might become. The reason for this is because the storm is expected to get caught in a weak steering environment & may await to be picked up the next weather system. The question becomes which weather system might pick Melissa up and send it northward out of the Caribbean.

The first opportunity for Melissa to be picked up comes on Thursday and Friday when an upper level trough of low pressure will pass to the north of the storm. This is the weather system that the GFS model has been insisting that Melissa will be picked up by. I do think that the GFS model is very wrong in its forecast as it forecasts Melissa to strengthen significantly over the next couple leading it to be picked up by this upper level trough. Instead, I think that we’ll probably see Melissa slowly strengthen & because of this, I do think that the upper level trough will miss Melissa & leave it milling around in the central Caribbean for at least the next 7 days. This means that I think that we will be tracking Melissa for at least the next 7-10 days!!

My Thoughts Are That I think that its going to take a rather strong upper level trough to pull Melissa northward out of the Caribbean & this may not occur until later next week. Because of this, the ceiling is very high for Melissa to strengthen significantly & potentially become a pretty strong hurricane in the northwestern Caribbean towards later this weekend & during next week.

This means that there may be quite a bit in the way of impacts for the islands of the central and northwestern Caribbean from Melissa, both in terms of heavy rainfall & also in the way of winds, depending on the track. This includes Jamaica, Haiti, Cuba and the Cayman Islands. Eventually, the Bahamas may also be significantly impacted by Melissa towards the middle and later parts of next week.

Another item of concern down the road is that the longer Melissa hangs around the western Caribbean, the bigger the impact it could have on the weather in the western North Atlantic & along parts of the East Coast of the United States. The reason for this is due to the fact that a rather strong upper level trough is expected to push through the Eastern United States near Halloween. It’s possible that Melissa could get entangled in this upper level trough leading to the potential for a significant storm near the Eastern Seaboard that brings heavy rain & strong winds around Halloween. It’s something to definitely watch.

Bottom Line Is That for those of you in the central and western Caribbean, this is going to be a marathon & not a sprint when tracking Melissa as it is likely to hang around for quite a while.

Model Track Forecast:

Satellite Imagery:

The next tropical weather discussion will be issued on Wednesday.

Invest 98-L Located Over The Eastern Caribbean: Invest 98-L is a robust tropical disturbance today & is producing a concentrated area of convection across the eastern Caribbean. While Invest 98-L is robust, it is also not yet organized as any sort of a center is located on the western edge of the deep convection. Also, Invest 98-L is being affected by westerly wind shear of up to 40 knots & these strong wind shear values will certainly cause it to not develop very quickly over the next day or two.

How quickly Invest 98-L organizes, develops and strengthens is going to be important in determining where it will ultimately go. If this system organizes and strengthens quickly over the next few days, it would probably turn towards Hispaniola more quickly and not get into the western Caribbean at all. On the other hand, slower organization over the next few days could mean it will push into the western Caribbean and take its time in turning to the north and northeast.

All-in-all, I do think that we’ll probably see Invest 98-L organize over the next couple of days, especially once it reaches the central Caribbean & slows down in forward speed. Because of this, I do think that we will likely see Invest 98-L become Tropical Storm Melissa by Wednesday or so.

Where this systems goes and how strong it becomes after it reaches the central Caribbean is still uncertain. The reason why is because Invest 98-L is expected to get caught up in an environment of conflicting steering currents.

There seems to be two potential track scenarios with Invest 98-L depending on how much it develops and strengthens.

The first track scenario is for Invest 98-L/Melissa to wait to strengthen & because of this move westward this week & reach the western Caribbean by this weekend where it then strengthens significantly. In this first scenario, Invest 98-L/Melissa then sits in the western Caribbean throughout this weekend through the first half of next week & become a major hurricane before it is yanked northeastward across Cuba and the Bahamas late next week. This is what model guidance such as the European model and the Canadian model seems to be suggesting. Also there has been a shift towards this scenario by the most recent run of the Google Deep Mind AI ensemble guidance.

The second track scenario is for Invest 98-L to strengthen significantly in the next day or two which leads to a quick turn to the north and northeast over the central Caribbean. This leads to this system to move right over Hispaniola late this week and then stall just north of Hispaniola near the southeastern Bahamas before its yanked out into the open Atlantic next week. The GFS model has been very consistent in forecasting this particular scenario.

Here Are My Thoughts: As I mentioned earlier in this discussion, I do think that it is very likely that Invest 98-L will organize and strengthen and become Tropical Storm Melissa by Wednesday when it reaches the central Caribbean.

While I think that a slower organizing and strengthening system that does move into the western Caribbean late this week and this weekend is definitely very much on the table, I do think that we’ll more likely see steady organizing and strengthening. Because of this, I do think that Invest 98-L/Melissa will eventually be pulled northward towards central and eastern Cuba and Haiti late this weekend or early next week & then towards the Bahamas next week.

I think that the quick turn to the north may end up being incorrect & I also think that the slower meandering system in the western Caribbean may also be incorrect. Because of this, I think that we’ll see an outcome that’s somewhere in the middle of the two scenarios I outlined earlier in this discussion.

That being said, all options are still on table in terms of where this system will track. I just think the quick exit over Hispaniola is the most incorrect one & I’m leaning much more towards the idea of a system that heads for the west-central Caribbean or even the western Caribbean.

Without a doubt, Invest 98-L/Melissa is a definite concern for everyone in the central and western Caribbean, including Honduras, Nicaragua, the Cayman Islands, Cuba, Jamaica, Haiti and the Dominican Republic. Because of this, if you live in the Caribbean or are traveling there, you really should keep a very close eye on the progress of Invest 98-L/Melissa throughout the coming days.

Model Track Forecast:

Satellite Imagery:

The next tropical weather discussion will be issued on Tuesday.

I continue to track a robust tropical wave that’s located over the Tropical Atlantic about 800 miles or so to the east of the Windward Islands or near 49 West Longitude. This wave is producing a large area of convection that stretches from about 47 West Longitude westward to near the Windward Islands.

I do still think that it’s very possible that this wave will develop into our next named tropical storm once it’s in the Caribbean during next week. This wave looks to enter the Caribbean by Sunday night into Monday.

Analysis of the environmental conditions reveals that the wind shear values around this wave are currently unfavorable for development. It should be noted though that the wind shear values in the Caribbean are very favorable for development & because of this, I do think that this system may very well develop once it’s in the Caribbean.

One thing that this tropical wave will do is bring squally weather, including heavy rain & gusty winds, to the Windward Islands starting as soon as this afternoon and continuing through Sunday and Monday.

There is very high amounts of uncertainty as to where this system might go and how strong it becomes once it’s in the Caribbean. Unfortunately, the model guidance is of little use in trying to figure this out as they all disagree with each other.

The GFS ensemble model guidance members are clustered in two scenarios. One cluster shows development occurring over the central Caribbean just south of Hispaniola during the middle and later parts of next week with a track that takes this system north and then northeastward across eastern Cuba, Hispaniola and the southeastern Bahamas. The second cluster of ensemble members show development occurring in the southwestern Caribbean instead with a scenario that keeps anything that forms there stuck in the western Caribbean for many days.

A look at the European ensemble model guidance shows that most of its members showing any development to occur in the southwestern Caribbean during the second half of next week. Most of the members that show development point to a scenario where this system crawls to the northwest near the coast of Nicaragua and Honduras by next weekend.

The most recent run of the Google Deep Mind AI model is a hot mess of possible track scenarios. While most members point to any development occurring in the central Caribbean later next week, they then diverge wildly on possible tracks. Some members show a quick exit to the northeast towards Hispaniola and Puerto Rico. Other members forecast a scenario of a track to the west-southwest towards Central America. Yet other members show a scenario where this system just sits and spins over the central Caribbean for many days.

My Thinking Is That while I do think that the development of a tropical storm and very possibly a hurricane will probably occur in the area around the central Caribbean during the second half of next week, I really have no idea of where it might go. This means that all options are on the table right now.

October tropical systems in the Caribbean can be extraordinarily difficult to forecast & in the past, we’ve seen everything from a nearly stalled system in the western Caribbean to a system that tracks from west to east across the Caribbean.

Because of this, if you live in the Caribbean or are traveling there, you really should keep a very close eye on the progress of this system. This includes those of you in the Virgin Islands, Puerto Rico, the Dominican Republic, Haiti, Cuba, the Cayman Islands, Jamaica, the Yucatan Peninsula, Belize & all of Central America.

The next tropical weather discussion will be issued on Monday.

A strong tropical wave is currently located over the central Tropical Atlantic near about 40 West Longitude. This tropical wave is definitely better organized than it was just 12 or 24 hours ago & because of this, I think it is quite likely that it will develop into a tropical system once it enters the Caribbean around Sunday night and Monday. Supporting the idea of likely development is the fact that the environmental conditions across the Caribbean look quite favorable throughout next week.

It should be noted that this strong tropical wave will bring squally weather, including heavy rain & gusty winds, to the Windward Islands during this weekend & particularly on Sunday. This squally weather then looks to persist into Monday across the Windward Islands.

The question then becomes will this system develop in the eastern Caribbean during the first half of next week or wait until it reaches the western Caribbean around late next week. Unfortunately, this is a big uncertainty as the model guidance do not agree on this.

Model guidance such as the Google Deep Mind AI model have trended much stronger with the development & intensity of this system. Because of this, they show a strong tropical system that is picked up by a strong upper level trough moving off of the East Coast of the United States. This turn from a westward heading to a north and northeast heading occurs between 70 West Longitude and 75 West Longitude in the Caribbean around the middle part of next week leading to this system to significantly impact Haiti, the Dominican Republic, Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands late next week. This same scenario has been forecast by the GFS model for several consecutive runs.

Other model guidance such as the European ensemble guidance show more delayed development leading to this system to make it into the western Caribbean later next week before it begins to really develop. Even with that, there are quite a few members that do show that sharp turn to the northeast next week putting areas including Cuba and the Bahamas at risk.

My Thinking Is That I think that a tropical storm and very probably a hurricane is going to be milling around in the Caribbean next week. The question then becomes which part of the Caribbean will be most threatened & to be honest, I don’t know yet.

My hunch though is that we’ll probably see the development occur in the eastern and central Caribbean during the early parts of next week rather than in the western Caribbean. The reason why I think this is because this tropical wave is currently much more organized than what was previously thought & because of this, it already has a head-start in the development process.

It goes without saying that this system needs to be watched very closely & if you live in the Caribbean or are traveling there, you need to monitor the progress of this system. This includes those of you in the Virgin Islands, Puerto Rico, the Dominican Republic, Haiti, Cuba, the Cayman Islands, Jamaica, the Yucatan Peninsula, Belize & all of Central America.

The next tropical weather discussion will be issued on Saturday.

Analysis today reveals that there is a pretty robust tropical wave that’s located over the eastern Tropical Atlantic near 25 West Longitude. Even though this wave looks pretty robust, water vapor satellite imagery shows that there is dry air located to the north of the wave. Additionally, there seems to be some unfavorable wind shear values waiting for this wave over the Tropical Atlantic, between about 45 West Longitude to about 60 West Longitude. Because of this, no tropical development of this wave is expected for at least the next several days as it heads westward.

This tropical wave is expected to reach the Windward Islands and the eastern Caribbean around late this weekend and early next week and then reach the central Caribbean towards Tuesday and Wednesday of next week.

The chances for this wave to develop are expected to increase quite a bit once it reaches the western Caribbean late next week. The reason for this is that the environmental conditions are expected to be favorable for development over the western Caribbean leading to this wave potentially developing as we get into late next week and next weekend.

While the signal for western Caribbean tropical development in the model guidance has increased a little since yesterday, it is far from certain as to whether tropical development will actually occur or if this will end up being a wave that just quietly heads westward across the Caribbean with no development at all. That being said, there is definitely a model signal for western Caribbean tropical development & very possibly significant tropical development late next week and next weekend & it is definitely something that’ll need to be watched closely.

In addition, the various model guidance members, including the GFS ensemble, the European ensemble & the Google Deep Mind AI ensemble models do disagree on where any tropical system that develops might go. Some guidance members show any system remaining in the western Caribbean and eventually heading for Central America, Belize and the Yucatan Peninsula. Other guidance members point to the possibility of a Eastern US upper level trough pulling this system northward out of the Caribbean and towards Cuba, the Bahamas & the East Coast of the United States.

The reason for the track difference in the ensemble members seems to have to do with the strength of the storm. The ensemble members that show this system headed westward towards Central America forecast a weak system. Meanwhile, the ensemble members that forecast this system becoming a strong tropical system show it being yanked northward out of the western Caribbean.

As I mentioned yesterday, it is way too soon to try to figure out which track and strength scenario might occur with this wave.

On one hand, the environmental conditions are forecast to be favorable and possibly very favorable for this wave to become a significant to very significant hurricane in the western Caribbean. Because of this, it would probably be influenced by that Eastern US trough and be pulled northward out of the Caribbean and towards Cuba, the Bahamas and the East Cost of the United States.

On the other hand, there’s an equal chance that this wave may end up staying weak & not take advantage of the favorable environmental conditions. Should this occur, it would miss that trough and head westward into Central America with no development at all.

I want to emphasize that while this tropical wave certainly needs to be watched very closely, there’s no telling yet of where it might ultimately go, should it go. There’s also no telling as to how strong it might get.

This means that you shouldn’t be overly concerned or worried about this wave, yet. I would, however, keep a close eye on this wave if you are in the western Caribbean as there is plenty of time to keep an eye on it.

The next tropical weather discussion will be issued on Friday.