Area Of Low Pressure Located Off Of The Coast Of The Southeastern United States: Satellite imagery, radar loops and weather analysis reveal that there is an area of low pressure located a couple of hundred miles or so due east of the Space Coast of Florida. The shower and thunderstorm activity associated with this low pressure system is disorganized and development looks unlikely due to strong amounts of wind shear.
This low pressure system is expected to move northward and track inland into the Carolinas during the day on Friday.
What this low pressure system will do is produce heavy rain and the possibility of some flooding starting across the Carolinas late tonight and continuing through Friday. This heavy rain and flood threat will then spread northward into the Mid-Atlantic states from Virginia to eastern Pennsylvania and New Jersey during the Friday and continue into Friday night. Heavy rain with the possibility of flooding will spread into much of Southern New England late Friday night and continue into the day on Saturday.
Forecast Rainfall Totals Friday Through Saturday:
Elsewhere Across The Atlantic, Caribbean & Gulf Of Mexico: Other than that low pressure system, it seems that the rest of the Atlantic, Caribbean and Gulf of Mexico is on a bit of a hiatus with no tropical development expected probably right through next week.
One thing that I did note is that there is the possibility that a robust tropical wave may cross the tropical Atlantic next week possibly reaching the northern Lesser Antilles and the Virgin Islands late next week. While dry air and unfavorable amounts of wind shear should prevent development, this wave may still bring some very squally weather to the northern Lesser Antilles and the Virgin Islands around Thursday and Friday of next week.
Beyond this, let’s take the anticipated quiet conditions over the next week or two to prepare for what’s very likely to be an extremely active August, September and October. It still looks like conditions may become favorable once more for tropical development once we get into the very end of this month and into the first part of August.
One difference between this hurricane season already compared to last year’s hurricane season is the strength of the Azores-Bermuda high pressure system. Last summer, the overall high pressure ridge was fairly weak, which led to most of the storms to curve out into the open Atlantic. This season, so far, has seen a much stronger high pressure ridge and this is a very foreboding look in that it’ll help to steer any storms much further west like we just saw with Beryl. The combination of the strong high pressure ridge and the expectation of an extremely active rest of the season is extremely worrisome to me in that Beryl will be far from the only landfalling hurricane this season and unfortunately, we’re likely to see quite a few landfalls this season.
I’m going to try and take a really long weekend and because of this the next tropical weather discussion will be issued on Tuesday, instead of Monday as originally planned.