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Summary: A significant severe weather outbreak is expected this afternoon into tonight from the central and southern Plains states eastward into the Ozarks. Tornadoes, some strong to violent in intensity, very large hail and damaging wind gusts are all expected. In particular a tornado outbreak looks likely across central and eastern Oklahoma, north Texas, southeastern Kansas, southwestern Missouri and northwestern Arkansas.

Details: Strong amounts of low-level wind shear currently exists across far southern Kansas, much of central Oklahoma and northwest Texas at the time of this writing. As temperatures rise late this morning into this afternoon and combine with 70-plus degree dew point temperatures, the atmosphere across much of the central and southern Plains will become extremely unstable.

Multiple supercell severe thunderstorms are expected to develop from eastern Kansas & western Missouri southwestward into central Oklahoma and north Texas by 2-3 pm CDT this afternoon & be a big problem for these areas through late this afternoon.

These supercell thunderstorms are expected to push eastward into eastern Oklahoma, western & central Missouri by early this evening & into northwestern Arkansas and eastern Missouri by 10-11 pm CDT this evening.

These storms will be moving through an extremely unstable and strongly sheered environment leading to multiple tornadoes to form & at least a few of the tornadoes will be strong to violent. The area I am most concerned about for strong to violent tornadoes is central and eastern Oklahoma, far north Texas, southeastern Kansas, southwestern Missouri and northwestern Arkansas.

In addition, very large hail and very damaging wind gusts will be likely with the severe weather as well.

For those of you in the orange and red colored areas of central and eastern Oklahoma, north Texas, northwestern Arkansas, western and central Missouri and eastern Kansas, please review your plans if you are impacted by a severe thunderstorm or a tornado. If a tornado warning is issued for your area, move to a place of safety, ideally in a basement or interior room on the lowest floor of a sturdy building. If you have family, friends or colleagues in the severe weather threat area, feel free to pass this discussion on to them.

Weather analysis today revealed that there are no areas of concern in terms of tropical development across the Atlantic, Caribbean and the Gulf. Extremely strong wind shear values can be found across the entire Gulf, Caribbean and Atlantic. These very strong wind shear values are highly unfavorable for any sort of tropical development.

Weather analysis also revealed that an upper level low pressure system located to the northwest of Puerto Rico is producing some squally weather across Puerto Rico, the Virgin Islands and the northern Leeward Islands. This squally weather is expected to continue throughout the rest of this weekend into Monday across the Leeward Islands and the Virgin Islands. The squally weather should diminish by about Tuesday.

Western Caribbean Tropical Development Is A Possibility Between June 6 & June 16: The next 2 to 3 weeks or so looks quiet in terms of tropical development chances as the overall environment looks unfavorable for tropical development.

Beyond this, it continues to look possible that an upward motion pulse of the Madden Julian Oscillation will push through the Caribbean and the Atlantic during the period from June 6 to June 16. This upward motion pulse of the Madden Julian Oscillation will inject moisture and energy into the atmosphere across the Caribbean and the Atlantic leading to a favorable background state fro tropical development.

At this point, none of the extremely long range model guidance show any sort of tropical development during that time period. That said, I do think that the prospects for tropical development is something that does need to be watched between June 6 and June 16. The area that I think needs to be watched most closely is the area from the western Caribbean to about the southern Gulf.

While this is something that might need to be watched closely once we get into early June, it’s nothing to be overly worried or concerned about.

The next tropical weather discussion will be issued on Wednesday.

Weather analysis today revealed that there are no areas of concern in terms of tropical development across the Atlantic, Caribbean and the Gulf. Extremely strong wind shear values can be found across the entire Gulf, Caribbean and Atlantic. These very strong wind shear values are highly unfavorable for any sort of tropical development.

While tropical development looks unlikely throughout the rest of this week right through this weekend, there are some items that I do want to mention.

The First Thing That I Wanted To Mention is the possibility of several days of unsettled and squally weather across much of the Lesser Antilles, the Virgin Islands, Puerto Rico and the area around the eastern Caribbean. This squally weather looks to possibly occur starting on Thursday and Friday and lasting through all of this weekend and the first half of next week.

Model guidance seems to be starting to agree with each other with showing a trough of low pressure pushing southward from a departing frontal system over the central North Atlantic. This trough of low pressure is anticipated to reach the eastern Caribbean by Friday night and Saturday where it could stall for several days.

It needs to be pointed out that tropical development is not expected from this weather system due to the expectation of very strong wind shear values.

What does this mean in terms of weather across the eastern Caribbean? An increasing frequency in showers and thunderstorms with squally weather is expected starting on Thursday and Friday. This squally weather currently looks to reach its peak across Puerto Rico, the Virgin Islands and the Leeward Islands from Friday through Saturday. The peak of the squally weather looks to occur across the Windward Islands from Saturday through Sunday.

The Second Thing That I Wanted To Mention is a low chance for tropical development over the southwestern Caribbean from this weekend through next week. While the chances of tropical development are low, they are not a zero percent chance. Because of this, this is something that I will continue to keep an eye on.

All of the model guidance continues to be on and off with showing tropical development with one run of a model showing something and the next run dropping it. Usually when we see this with the model guidance, it means tropical development probably will not occur.

Weather analysis as of today does show an area of thunderstorms located over the far eastern Pacific just south of Panama. It should be pointed out that the wind shear values over the far eastern Pacific are around 15 to 20 knots, which is marginally favorable for tropical development. Because of this, I do think that we’ll see higher development chances over the eastern Pacific rather than the southwestern Caribbean.

As of right now, I still think that there’s a 10 percent chance for tropical development over the southwestern Caribbean from this weekend through next week.

The Final Item That I Wanted To Mention is a better chance for tropical development in the western Caribbean between about June 6 and June 16.

It is looking increasingly more possible that a rather robust upward motion pulse will push into the Atlantic and the Caribbean during the period from June 6 to June 16. This upward motion pulse of the Madden Julian Oscillation will inject moisture and energy into the atmosphere across the Caribbean and the Atlantic leading to a favorable background state fro tropical development.

While the extremely long range model guidance do not show any sort of tropical development during that time period, I do think that it is something that needs to be watched. The area that I think probably needs the most scrutiny is the western Caribbean into the Gulf where it is favorable normally for tropical development during the first half of June.

While this is something that might need to be watched closely once we get into early June, it’s nothing to be overly worried or concerned about.

The next tropical weather discussion will be issued on Saturday.

I wanted to update you on the latest concerning the continuing heavy rainfall across the southeastern United States, which will push its way into the Mid-Atlantic states during Monday. This heavy rainfall is then expected to last until about Wednesday.

An upper-level low pressure system located over the Deep South will help to pull copious amounts of Gulf moisture into the Southeastern United States. At the same time this is occurring, a stationary front located across the north-central and northeastern Gulf Coast will help to focus the heavy rainfall and thunderstorms.

For the rest of this afternoon through tonight, the heaviest rainfall amounts will occur across southeastern and eastern Alabama, central and southern Georgia, the Florida Panhandle, north Florida, much of South Carolina and southern North Carolina.

During Monday and Monday night, the heavy rainfall will become focused across much of the Florida Peninsula, eastern Georgia, much of South Carolina, much of North Carolina and southern Virginia.

On Tuesday and Tuesday night, heavy rain is expected to occur across central, eastern and northern Virginia, much of Maryland, much of Delaware, southeastern Pennsylvania and much of New Jersey.

All of the heavy rain will push offshore by Wednesday.

The highest rainfall amounts of 2 to 4 inches over the next couple of days will occur across much of the Florida Peninsula, except for far southwest Florida, eastern and southeastern Georgia, much of South Carolina, much of North Carolina, southern and central Virginia.

Two areas of particularly heavy rainfall amounts on the order of 4 to 6 inches is possible across southeastern North Carolina and across the Appalachian Mountains of western North Carolina.

A full tropical weather discussion will be sent out sometime on Tuesday, which will cover the latest regarding the lowering chances for tropical development starting next week in the Western Caribbean. It will also cover the next window for possible tropical development in the Western Caribbean between June 6 and June 16.

Northern Gulf Low Pressure System Development Will Lead To Heavy Rain This Weekend Into Early Next Week Across Central & North Florida, The Florida Panhandle, Southern & Eastern Alabama, Much Of Georgia, Much Of South Carolina & Southern North Carolina: Weather analysis as of late this morning indicated that there is plentiful amounts of moisture streaming northward from the Gulf into southern Louisiana and southwestern Mississippi where a stationary front is located. This is leading to moderate to heavy amounts of rain to occur at the time of this writing across central and southern Louisiana and southwestern Mississippi.

It is expected that a low pressure system will form over the north-central Gulf just to the south of coastal Alabama and the western Florida Panhandle by Saturday morning. This low pressure system is then expected to remain either nearly stationary or just mill around coastal parts of Mississippi, Alabama and the Florida Panhandle as we get into Sunday and Monday.

It should be noted that the environmental conditions will be highly unfavorable for any sort of tropical development due to strong wind shear. Even though tropical development is not expected with this low pressure system, the moisture and energy with this low pressure system will interact with a stationary front & produce heavy rainfall with flooding across a large area from central and north Florida northward into the Carolinas this weekend into early next week.

Heavy rain with the potential for flooding is expected the rest of today through tonight across southeastern Louisiana, southern Mississippi, southern Alabama and the western and central Florida Panhandle.

During Saturday and Saturday night, heavy rain with flooding is expected across central and southern Alabama, central and southern Georgia, all of the Florida Panhandle and parts of north Florida.

As we get into Sunday and Sunday night, very heavy rain with likely flooding is expected across the Florida Panhandle, north Florida, central and southern Georgia.

Maximum rainfall totals of 3 to 5 inches are expected from today through this weekend across southern Alabama, central and southern Georgia, all of the Florida Panhandle and north Florida.

Turning to early next week, multiple rounds of heavy rain is expected from much of the Florida Peninsula northward through eastern and southeastern Georgia, all of South Carolina, all of North Carolina and southern and central Virginia. Flash flooding is likely from this heavy rainfall in the upslope regions of the southern Appalachians of southwestern Virginia, western North Carolina, northwestern South Carolina and northeast Georgia.

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Slight Possibility Of Western Caribbean Tropical Development Starting Next Weekend: The latest data seems to be trending towards a decreasing chance of tropical development over the western Caribbean starting next weekend. That said, it is not a zero chance and because of that it is something that I’m still going to keep an eye on.

The GFS model seems to have trended from western Caribbean tropical development towards development occurring in the eastern Pacific by about May 19. That said, the GFS model tries to split off a piece of energy that travels eastward to the Lesser Antilles where it produces an area of low pressure over the far eastern Caribbean next Sunday. This low pressure system produces several days of heavy rain across the Lesser Antilles from next Friday May 16 to Tuesday May 20.

The Canadian and European models forecast no tropical development at all next weekend anywhere in the Caribbean.

It should be noted that the European ensemble model guidance still shows a 30 percent chance of tropical development in the far southwestern Caribbean late next week and next weekend. Also, the longer range European ensemble model guidance keeps the chances for tropical development in the 20-40 percent range through the week of May 26 and the week of June 2 across the southwestern Caribbean. So this part of the Caribbean certainly will need to be watched during the second half of this month.

Here Are My Thoughts: While the western Caribbean may need to be watched for possible tropical development during the second half of this month, I do think that the chances of tropical development are lower as compared to what I thought on Tuesday.

An upward motion pulse of the Madden Julian Oscillation is expected to cross the Caribbean during next week. Latest guidance has trended weaker with this upward motion pulse & this is probably why the guidance have trended lower with development chances. It should be noted that the model guidance are showing the next upward motion pulse of the Madden Julian Oscillation to push through the Caribbean and the Atlantic between June 6 and June 16. This could be the next window to watch for possible tropical development.

My thinking as of today is that I’m lowering the chances of tropical development in the western Caribbean to 10 percent starting next weekend. While it is something to keep an eye on, it seems that it’s much more likely tropical development will not occur.

The next tropical weather discussion will be issued on Sunday & will mostly cover the heavy rainfall & flooding threat across the Southeastern United States.

I wanted to send out a quick update concerning the likelihood that a low pressure system will form over the north-central and northeastern Gulf by late Friday into Saturday. The environmental conditions are expected to be unfavorable for any sort of tropical development due to strong wind shear. This low pressure system is expected to track into southern Alabama and southern Mississippi by Saturday night and Sunday.

Even though tropical development is not expected with this low pressure system, the moisture and energy with this low pressure system will be abundant. Because of this, heavy flooding rains are expected to develop across southern Alabama, southwestern Georgia and the Florida Panhandle by Friday night and Saturday. This heavy rain, which will produce flash flooding is expected to continue across southern Alabama, southern Georgia, the Florida Panhandle and north Florida during Saturday night and Sunday.

Maximum rainfall totals of 2 to 5 inches are expected across southern Alabama, southern Georgia, the Florida Panhandle and north Florida between Friday night and Sunday evening.

Even more heavy rain is expected across central and north Florida, much of Georgia, much of South Carolina and southern North Carolina on Monday through Tuesday. 2 to 5 inches of additional rainfall can be expected.

Needless to say, this low pressure system will be a flood producer even though it will not be sub-tropical or tropical in nature.

A full tropical weather discussion will be sent out sometime tomorrow (Friday) updating you on the Gulf system, as well as the latest on possible western Caribbean tropical development.

It continues to look as if tropical development could be a concern in the western Caribbean beginning as soon as the middle part of this month.

All of the model guidance continues to point to the possibility that we should be looking at the western Caribbean as an area for tropical development by about the weekend of May 17-18.

The GFS model has been the most aggressive with this potential development. The aggressiveness of the GFS model’s forecast should be taken with a lot of skepticism as there is a bias in this model in forecasting erroneous tropical cyclones in the western Caribbean during May into early June. That said, the GFS model does forecast a tropical system to form near the coast of Central America during the weekend of May 17-18 & for it to gradually head northward towards the northwestern Caribbean by about May 21.

While the Canadian and European operational models do not show any sort of tropical development, there are a fair amount of ensemble model members that do show possible tropical development in the southwestern Caribbean during the weekend of May 17-18. Most of the ensemble members that do show development show a track that takes any system to the northeastward towards Jamaica, eastern Cuba and Haiti by May 19-20.

In addition, the European ensemble model guidance does still forecast a 30 percent chance for tropical development in the southwestern Caribbean by the weekend of May 17-18. Also, the longer range European ensemble model guidance is pointing towards a 30-40 percent chance of tropical development in the southwestern Caribbean during the week of May 19 with these 30-40 percent chances continuing through the week of May 26.

Also, the CFS model seems to be pointing towards the possibility of storminess and at least one area of disturbed weather over the western Caribbean during the week of May 19.

Here Are My Thoughts: Based on everything that I have looked at, I do think that there’s definitely the chance for some sort of tropical development to occur in the southwestern Caribbean in the area just north of Panama by the weekend of May 17-18.

One thing that is prominent in the data is the fact that there is likely to be a robust upward motion pulse pushing across the Caribbean by the end of next week through next weekend (May 16-18). This will lead to a favorable background environment for tropical development.

Even though wind shear values across the entire Atlantic into the Caribbean are very unfavorable for tropical development right now, there are signals in the data that suggests that favorable amounts of wind shear will be present over the western Caribbean by next weekend. In fact, it is possible that there could be lower than average wind shear values over the western Caribbean by next weekend.

All-in-all, I think that there is still about a 20 percent chance that we will see some sort of tropical development occur in the southwestern or western Caribbean as soon as next weekend (May 17-18). Any system that does try to form in the southwestern or western Caribbean could be guided from the western Caribbean northeastward towards Cuba, the Bahamas and up near the East Coast of the United States.

This is something that I will continue to keep a close eye on. That said, it’s nothing to be overly concerned about or worried about, for now.

The next tropical weather discussion will be issued on Friday.

Before I get into our latest tropical weather discussion, I am asking & in fact, I am BEGGING for your financial help. The reason for this is due to the fact that we are significantly behind on some of our bills. Also, we are struggling to pay for the extremely high cost of everything, including utilities, groceries and other expenses. PLEASE, PLEASE, PLEASE help us out!!!

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Now let’s get into the latest tropical weather discussion shall we?

Analysis of satellite imagery, weather data & short-range model guidance reveals that there are no areas of immediate concern in terms of tropical development across the Atlantic, Caribbean and the Gulf.

While tropical development looks unlikely throughout this upcoming week, it does look like there will be the development of a low pressure system in the area halfway between Bermuda and the southeastern Bahamas during the middle part of this week. This low pressure system is expected to be short-lived, non-tropical in nature and should weaken and dissipate by the end of this coming week.

Looking Beyond This – I think that it’s possible that we will see tropical development occur in the western and southwestern Caribbean during the second half of this month.

The longer range model guidance seems to be gradually agreeing on the possibility of an area of disturbed weather to form over the western and southwestern Caribbean starting during the weekend of May 17-18 and continuing into late May. The part that the model guidance does disagree on is when and where any development might occur.

The GFS model guidance is showing some development to occur by May 19 in the deep southwestern Caribbean.

The GFS ensemble model guidance seems to agree with the GFS operational model, but seems to be pointing towards any development might occur towards the northwestern Caribbean by May 19. There are quite a few members of the GFS ensemble model that point to the area to watch is from the northwestern Caribbean to perhaps as far northeast as the northwestern Bahamas.

The Canadian model forecasts no development at all over the next 10 days.

While the European operational model forecasts no development at all, some of its ensemble members do hint at possible disturbed weather in the area of the Caribbean just west of Jamaica by the weekend of May 17-18. Also, the longer range European ensemble model guidance is pointing towards a 30-40 percent chance of tropical development in the southwestern Caribbean during the week of May 19 with these 30-40 percent chances continuing through the week of May 26.

Also, the CFS model seems to be pointing towards the possibility of storminess and at least one area of disturbed weather over the western Caribbean during the week of May 19.

Here Are My Thoughts: As I mentioned in my discussion on May 1, it looks as if an upward motion pulse of the Madden Julian Oscillation will push into the Caribbean and the Atlantic during the second half of this month. This could lead to a favorable pattern for tropical development to occur in the Atlantic Basin starting during the week of May 19.

One thing that I wanted to point out is that the model guidance this time of year has a habit of erroneously forecasting tropical development in the western Caribbean, when in the end, the development actually occurs in the eastern Pacific instead. It’s quite possible that we are seeing the same thing here with the model guidance.

That all said, I do think that there is probably about a 20 percent chance that we will see some sort of tropical development occur in the western Caribbean during the week of May 19. My reasoning for this is because while climatology does favor development in the eastern Pacific this time of year, the forecast amount of wind shear over the western Caribbean will be lower than average. These lower than average wind shear values combined with a favorable background state could lead to tropical development to occur in the western Caribbean during the week of May 19. Any system that does try to form in the western Caribbean during the week of May 19 may be guided from the western Caribbean northeastward towards the northwestern Bahamas and then up near the East Coast of the United States.

This is something that I’m going to be keeping a close eye on. That said, it’s nothing to be overly concerned about or worried about, for now.

The next tropical weather discussion will be issued on Tuesday.

Today, we begin issuing our regular tropical weather discussions for the 2025 Atlantic Hurricane Season here at Crown Weather Services.

Current analysis reveals that there are no areas of immediate concern in terms of tropical development across the Atlantic, Caribbean and the Gulf.

Even though tropical development is not expected for at least the next few days, the model guidance has been occasionally hinting at the possibility of some sort of development to occur in an area between north of the Lesser Antilles westward to near the northern Bahamas and near the Southeast coast of the United States. This is something that the models have been hinting at for at least the last several days and I do think it is something that should be watched, just in case.

The most recent model guidance do show some very differing solutions. The GFS model and also the Canadian model currently shows a low pressure system forming well to the northeast of the Leeward Islands by early next week and moving westward to near the area halfway between the Bahamas and Bermuda by the middle and later parts of next week. It seems the European model also shows a similar idea, but is weaker with its forecast strength.

My take on this is that any low pressure system that forms between the Bahamas and north of the Leeward Islands next week should be quite weak in strength & probably will be non-tropical in nature.

Looking Beyond This – It seems the European ensemble model guidance is hinting at two areas that might need to be watched for possible tropical development chances near the end of this month.

The first area is in the southwestern and western Caribbean where the ensemble model guidance is showing upwards of a 30-40 percent chance for tropical development during the last week of this month. This matches the overall background pattern which seems to be pointing towards an upward motion pulse of the Madden Julian Oscillation to reach the Caribbean and the Atlantic during the second half of this month. This could lead to a favorable pattern for tropical development to occur in the Atlantic Basin.

A second area to possibly keep an eye on during the last week of May is right near the East Coast of the United States where the European ensemble model is showing upwards of 10-20 percent chance for tropical development during the last week of this month.

Interestingly, the CFS model does show an area of disturbed weather forming in the southeastern Bahamas right during the middle part of this month & then moving northeastward as a developing sub-tropical system to just west of Bermuda.

Bottom Line Is That while there might be some areas to keep an eye on, especially during the second half of this month, there is nothing that really stands out at me as a likely area for tropical development.

The next tropical weather discussion will be issued on Sunday.

The 2025 hurricane season forecast from Colorado State University was released this past Thursday and like our forecast, they are forecasting a somewhat above average season in terms of activity. CSU is forecasting 17 named storms, 9 of those storms becoming hurricanes and 4 of those hurricanes becoming major hurricanes. This is comparable to our forecast in which we released on March 20. In our forecast, we are forecasting 16 named storms, 7 of those storms becoming hurricanes and 4 of those hurricanes becoming major hurricanes.

There are a couple of reasons why we are expecting a busier than average hurricane season.

The First Reason Is The Likelihood Of ENSO-Neutral Conditions During This Summer Into This Fall: Weak La Nina conditions currently exist across the eastern Pacific and it seems rather likely that we will see neutral ENSO conditions during the peak of the Atlantic hurricane season forecast.

Neutral ENSO conditions is an enhancing influence on tropical activity during the hurricane season. This means that at least somewhat above average activity can be expected this hurricane season in terms of the number of tropical storms and hurricanes.

A Second Reason Are The Ocean Water Temperatures: Ocean water temperatures are currently warmer than average across the western and central Atlantic & is currently slightly below average over the eastern tropical Atlantic. Warmer than average ocean water temperatures are also currently occurring over the eastern subtropical Atlantic.

It should be noted that there is a positive correlation between above average ocean temperatures over the Caribbean and the eastern subtropical Atlantic during April and an active Atlantic hurricane season.

Analog Years: The analog years that Colorado State University used for their forecast are very close to what we used for analog years.

CSU went with the following analog years that seem to be a close match with what the 2025 hurricane season might be like – 1996, 1999, 2006, 2008, 2011 & 2017.

Our analog forecast here at Crown Weather used the following years for what the 2025 hurricane season may be like. They are 1895, 1916, 1959, 1967, 1996, 1999, 2008, 2011, 2017 & 2021.

Landfall Threat Forecast: There are no changes at all with my landfall threat forecast. In the map attached to this discussion, I have added my expectations of the most likely potential tracks of tropical systems this season.

There are still three areas that I’m most concerned about for this upcoming season in terms of a tropical storm or hurricane impact.

The First Area Is the area from the Carolinas northward to Southern New England. As I mentioned previously, all indications seem to be pointing towards this being an East Coast concentrated season for tropical storm or hurricane threats. Based on this, in addition to model guidance and analog data, I do think that a corridor from South Carolina and North Carolina northward to Southern New England could be an area to really watch.

The Second Area Of Particular Concern Is across the far northeastern Caribbean, including the far northern Leeward Islands, the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico.

Model guidance and analog data seems to be pointing towards the possibility of any tropical systems moving westward from the central and eastern tropical Atlantic to begin curving west-northwest and northwest just before they reach the Caribbean. This leads to the potential for these tropical systems to directly impact the northeastern Caribbean before they either head further west towards the Bahamas or the East Coast of the United States or curve northward into the open Atlantic.

Another Area Of Some Concern Is the area from the northwestern Caribbean northward to the central Gulf coast where any tropical disturbances moving westward may begin to strengthen by the time they reach the northwestern Caribbean and then head for the central Gulf Coast.

Even though your area may have a low or medium risk this season, be aware that any small fluctuations in the upper level weather pattern at the “wrong” time could threaten the low or medium risk areas.

Finally, I am pushing up the date of the start of regular tropical weather discussions for the 2025 Atlantic Hurricane Season. I now expect to begin issuing regular tropical weather discussions on Thursday, May 1.

The reason why is because there are some subtle signs in the very long model guidance that there could be some sort of tropical development sometime during early or mid-May. Very long model guidance has been somewhat consistent in showing this scenario & because of this, I am pushing up the start date of tropical weather discussions to May 1.