Invest 91-L Located In The Bay Of Campeche: As of about midday today, satellite imagery and analysis of weather data indicated that there is a low pressure system now located in the east-central Bay of Campeche. This low pressure system has been designated Invest 91-L by the National Hurricane Center. Satellite imagery does show a broad circulation with Invest 91-L with some deeper convection firing over the far southern parts of the Bay of Campeche. This deeper convection seems to be firing right where the highest amounts of low-level vorticity is occurring.
Invest 91-L is expected to head in a west-northwest direction throughout the rest of this weekend and I do think that there is a pretty good chance that this system will become at least a tropical depression and quite possibly a tropical storm. The reason why I think this is due to the expectation of somewhat favorable environmental conditions in the Bay of Campeche. These conditions include high amounts of moisture, plenty warm water temperatures and marginally favorable wind shear values of around 15-20 knots or so. Also, the shape of the Bay of Campeche is notorious for helping to spin up tropical systems like this & I do think that we’ll see the same thing occur this weekend.
It looks likely that Invest 91-L will come ashore very near or just north of Tampico, Mexico by Monday morning as a tropical depression or possibly even a low-end tropical storm. If Invest 91-L does become a tropical storm, it’s name will be Barry.
Whether Invest 91-L develops or not, it will produce heavy rainfall across much of southern and eastern Mexico throughout this weekend into early next week. This heavy rainfall has the potential to produce flash flooding and mudslides, particularly in hilly terrain. It appears that the heavy rainfall amounts will be found in the Mexican states of Veracruz, San Luis Potosi and Tamaulipas. Some of this rainfall might affect parts of the Rio Grande Valley later Sunday through Monday.
Finally, I want to emphasize that Invest 91-L, whether it develops or not, poses no threat at all to the Texas coastline or any part of the US Gulf Coast.


Model Track Forecast:




Satellite Imagery:

Tropical Development Continues To Be A Possibility From The Northeastern Gulf To Near The Southeastern Coast Of The United States Late Next Week: Once Invest 91-L moves inland into eastern Mexico on Monday, we will quickly have to turn our attention to the area from the northeastern Gulf to near the Southeast coast of the United States where tropical development will become possible during the second half of next week.
A frontal system is expected to stall out and decay over the northeast Gulf and off of the US Southeast coast during the middle and later parts of next week. It is looking more likely that a low pressure system will form near the tail end of this front during late next week. It is then possible that this low pressure system could develop into a tropical system as it meanders around the area from the northeastern Gulf to near the Carolina coastline late next week through next weekend.
Looking At The Latest Model Guidance: There seems to be agreement between all of the model guidance that tropical development could be a concern in an area from the northeastern Gulf to near the Southeast Coast of the United States during late next week and next weekend. There are differences between the models as to where exactly this system might form and where it might go. This is pretty normal for a forecast that’s almost one week away.
The latest GFS model run (12Z today) shows a low pressure system forming over the northeastern Gulf between Thursday and Friday of next week. The GFS model then forecasts this system to track westward just offshore of the coasts of the Florida Panhandle, Alabama & Mississippi next weekend before coming ashore over southwestern Mississippi or southeast Louisiana on Monday, July 7.
The Canadian model is much different than the GFS model as it forecasts a low pressure system forming near the South Carolina and North Carolina coasts around Thursday and then moving northeastward into the open Atlantic well southeast of Cape Cod next weekend.
While the European model does show storminess along the old front from the northeastern Gulf through the Florida Peninsula to near the southeastern coast of the US late next week, it doesn’t really show any sort of low pressure system development. Now, the European ensemble model guidance does forecast about a 40 percent chance for tropical development near the Carolina coastline late next week into next weekend.
Here Are My Thoughts: I do think that there is the chance for tropical development to occur somewhere between the northeast Gulf and the coasts of North and South Carolina late next week into next weekend. That being said, I do think that the chances of tropical development actually occurring are still fairly low.
The even more difficult part of the forecast is exactly where will this system possibly form & at this point, I’ll be honest in telling you, I don’t know. I think that there are equal chances of any system developing over the northeastern Gulf versus near the Carolina coastline. It’s going to take at least a couple of days and probably longer to figure out where any system might form.
For now, this is still nothing to be overly concerned or worried about & is something to keep an eye on.
Finally, this system, whether it develops or not, has the potential to produce heavy rainfall across a large part of the Florida Panhandle and central and northern parts of the Florida Peninsula from the middle and later parts of next week right into next weekend. This rainfall could lead to localized flash flood issues, especially across the Florida Panhandle, across the Big Bend area of Florida and in the Tampa metro.
Forecast Rainfall Totals Next Week Through Next Weekend:
The next tropical weather discussion will be issued on Sunday.






