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Invest 91-L Located In The Bay Of Campeche: As of about midday today, satellite imagery and analysis of weather data indicated that there is a low pressure system now located in the east-central Bay of Campeche. This low pressure system has been designated Invest 91-L by the National Hurricane Center. Satellite imagery does show a broad circulation with Invest 91-L with some deeper convection firing over the far southern parts of the Bay of Campeche. This deeper convection seems to be firing right where the highest amounts of low-level vorticity is occurring.

Invest 91-L is expected to head in a west-northwest direction throughout the rest of this weekend and I do think that there is a pretty good chance that this system will become at least a tropical depression and quite possibly a tropical storm. The reason why I think this is due to the expectation of somewhat favorable environmental conditions in the Bay of Campeche. These conditions include high amounts of moisture, plenty warm water temperatures and marginally favorable wind shear values of around 15-20 knots or so. Also, the shape of the Bay of Campeche is notorious for helping to spin up tropical systems like this & I do think that we’ll see the same thing occur this weekend.

It looks likely that Invest 91-L will come ashore very near or just north of Tampico, Mexico by Monday morning as a tropical depression or possibly even a low-end tropical storm. If Invest 91-L does become a tropical storm, it’s name will be Barry.

Whether Invest 91-L develops or not, it will produce heavy rainfall across much of southern and eastern Mexico throughout this weekend into early next week. This heavy rainfall has the potential to produce flash flooding and mudslides, particularly in hilly terrain. It appears that the heavy rainfall amounts will be found in the Mexican states of Veracruz, San Luis Potosi and Tamaulipas. Some of this rainfall might affect parts of the Rio Grande Valley later Sunday through Monday.

Finally, I want to emphasize that Invest 91-L, whether it develops or not, poses no threat at all to the Texas coastline or any part of the US Gulf Coast.

Model Track Forecast:

Satellite Imagery:

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Tropical Development Continues To Be A Possibility From The Northeastern Gulf To Near The Southeastern Coast Of The United States Late Next Week: Once Invest 91-L moves inland into eastern Mexico on Monday, we will quickly have to turn our attention to the area from the northeastern Gulf to near the Southeast coast of the United States where tropical development will become possible during the second half of next week.

A frontal system is expected to stall out and decay over the northeast Gulf and off of the US Southeast coast during the middle and later parts of next week. It is looking more likely that a low pressure system will form near the tail end of this front during late next week. It is then possible that this low pressure system could develop into a tropical system as it meanders around the area from the northeastern Gulf to near the Carolina coastline late next week through next weekend.

Looking At The Latest Model Guidance: There seems to be agreement between all of the model guidance that tropical development could be a concern in an area from the northeastern Gulf to near the Southeast Coast of the United States during late next week and next weekend. There are differences between the models as to where exactly this system might form and where it might go. This is pretty normal for a forecast that’s almost one week away.

The latest GFS model run (12Z today) shows a low pressure system forming over the northeastern Gulf between Thursday and Friday of next week. The GFS model then forecasts this system to track westward just offshore of the coasts of the Florida Panhandle, Alabama & Mississippi next weekend before coming ashore over southwestern Mississippi or southeast Louisiana on Monday, July 7.

The Canadian model is much different than the GFS model as it forecasts a low pressure system forming near the South Carolina and North Carolina coasts around Thursday and then moving northeastward into the open Atlantic well southeast of Cape Cod next weekend.

While the European model does show storminess along the old front from the northeastern Gulf through the Florida Peninsula to near the southeastern coast of the US late next week, it doesn’t really show any sort of low pressure system development. Now, the European ensemble model guidance does forecast about a 40 percent chance for tropical development near the Carolina coastline late next week into next weekend.

Here Are My Thoughts: I do think that there is the chance for tropical development to occur somewhere between the northeast Gulf and the coasts of North and South Carolina late next week into next weekend. That being said, I do think that the chances of tropical development actually occurring are still fairly low.

The even more difficult part of the forecast is exactly where will this system possibly form & at this point, I’ll be honest in telling you, I don’t know. I think that there are equal chances of any system developing over the northeastern Gulf versus near the Carolina coastline. It’s going to take at least a couple of days and probably longer to figure out where any system might form.

For now, this is still nothing to be overly concerned or worried about & is something to keep an eye on.

Finally, this system, whether it develops or not, has the potential to produce heavy rainfall across a large part of the Florida Panhandle and central and northern parts of the Florida Peninsula from the middle and later parts of next week right into next weekend. This rainfall could lead to localized flash flood issues, especially across the Florida Panhandle, across the Big Bend area of Florida and in the Tampa metro.

Forecast Rainfall Totals Next Week Through Next Weekend:

The next tropical weather discussion will be issued on Sunday.

Area Of Disturbed Weather Located Over The Northwestern Caribbean: Satellite imagery and analysis of weather data indicated that there is an area of disturbed weather located over the northwestern Caribbean today. This disturbed weather is producing some deeper thunderstorm activity just north of northern coast of Honduras. This area of disturbed weather is expected to move towards the west-northwest and reach the Bay of Campeche during Saturday where development is a possibility by Sunday or Monday.

Diving a little deeper into the data reveals that the wind shear values are too strong to support immediate tropical development as 25-40 knots of wind shear are affecting much of the western and northwestern Caribbean. Also, any spin associated with this disturbed weather is located at the middle levels of the atmosphere. This says to me that development is unlikely over the next day or two due to unfavorable conditions and then land interaction with the Yucatan Peninsula.

It’s possible that some development could occur once this disturbed weather moves into the Bay of Campeche this weekend. The reason for this possible Bay of Campeche development is due to the combination of this system taking advantage of the curvature of the Bay of Campeche and the potential for lighter amounts of wind shear over the Bay of Campeche. The most likely time frame for potential development looks to be from Sunday into Monday and the chances for development look to be about 25-35 percent or so.

Two other things to note about this area of disturbed weather –

First is that even if development does not happen, this disturbed weather will bring heavy rainfall and possible flooding to Belize, Guatemala and southern and southeastern Mexico throughout this weekend. This heavy rainfall may then affect eastern and northeastern Mexico and possibly the Rio Grande Valley late this weekend into the first half of next week.

The second item to note is that right now this disturbance, whether it develops or not, poses no serious threat at all to the Texas coastline or any part of the US Gulf Coast.

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Tropical Development Is A Slight Possibility Near The Southeastern Coast Of The United States Late Next Week: There continues to be the possibility that we could see the occurrence of tropical development near the Southeast Coast of the United States late next week as a low pressure system forms near the tail end of a frontal boundary. This is a “classic” weather setup that can sometimes yield tropical development. What happens is that a frontal boundary stalls out and decays and a low pressure system then forms near the tail end of the front and cuts off from the front. The convergence and energy from the old front then feeds into the low pressure system and allows it to develop into a tropical system. This is something that will be monitored closely as we get into the second half of next week.

Some Of The Model Guidance is certainly hinting at the very real possibility that we will see development late next week. While the GFS model doesn’t show any sort of development, the Canadian model has been fairly consistent in forecasting possible development later next week. The latest Canadian model run shows a low pressure system spinning up near the coast of eastern North Carolina on Thursday of next week and then moving to the northeast well east and southeast of Cape Cod next Saturday. Interestingly, the Canadian model forecasts a second low pressure system to form near the South Carolina coast next weekend.

The European model seems to have backed off some on its forecast development near the Carolina coastline late next week.

As for the ensemble model guidance, the GFS ensemble model shows no development at all. The European ensemble model guidance is forecasting about a 25-30 percent chance for development near the Carolina coastline late next week into next weekend. This is a little lower chance of development by the European ensemble model guidance as compared to the last couple of days.

Here Are My Thoughts: While I do think that we may need to watch the area near the North and South Carolina coasts for possible development late next week into next weekend, I do think that the chances for development are fairly low. This means that this is nothing to be overly concerned about or worried about – just something to keep an eye on.

Needless to say, I will be keeping close tabs on the slight possibility for tropical development late next week near the Carolina coastline and will update you as needed.

The next tropical weather discussion will be issued on Saturday.

The development of Tropical Storm Andrea yesterday over the North Atlantic between Bermuda and the Azores was very short-lived. Andrea ended up dissipating yesterday evening as the system was impacted by colder ocean waters, dry air and strong amounts of wind shear. All is quiet across the rest of the Atlantic, Caribbean and Gulf with no other areas of interest. The environmental conditions across a large part of the Atlantic Basin are unfavorable for any sort of development.

So, we close the books on Andrea, even though it wasn’t much to begin with.

Elsewhere Across The Atlantic, Caribbean & Gulf: All is quiet across the rest of the Atlantic, Caribbean and Gulf with no other areas of interest. The environmental conditions across a large part of the Atlantic Basin are unfavorable for any sort of development.

Analysis of wind shear values reveals that very strong levels of wind shear are impacting the entire tropical Atlantic, the entire Caribbean and the eastern Gulf. The only area right now that has low enough wind shear for development is across the western Gulf where wind shear values are less than 20 knots. That said, no development is expected anywhere across the Atlantic Basin throughout the rest of this week through this weekend.

Tropical Development Is A Slight Possibility Near The Southeastern Coast Of The United States Late Next Week: Some of the model guidance (particularly the Canadian model) continues to hint that there will be the development of a low pressure system near the tail end of a frontal boundary near the South and North Carolina coasts around Thursday and Friday of next week. This low pressure system is then forecast by the model guidance to track northeastward passing near or just east of Cape Cod by next weekend. Additionally, the European ensemble model guidance is forecasting around a 30-35 percent chance for tropical development near the South and North Carolina coasts during the late parts of next week.

My takeaway from all of this is that the area near the South and North Carolina coasts may need to be watched closely for possible tropical development around Thursday and Friday of next week. For now though, it’s nothing to be overly concerned about or worried about – just something to keep an eye on.

Needless to say, I will be keeping close tabs on the slight possibility for tropical development late next week near the Carolina coastline and will update you as needed.

The next tropical weather discussion will be issued on Friday.

Tropical Storm Andrea: This will be a short update.

The area of low pressure, designated Invest 90-L by the National Hurricane Center, has developed overnight into this morning and has strengthened into a tropical storm. Tropical Storm Andrea is located way out in the open Atlantic between Bermuda and the Azores.

Satellite imagery last night into this morning showed that Andrea has developed some deeper convection and satellite estimated winds indicated that this system is producing 40 mph winds. That said, the deep convection that was occurring a little earlier has decreased some, but it seems it’s still barely a tropical storm.

Andrea is moving to the east-northeast and this will lead to the storm moving to the north of the Azores later this week. It is very likely that Andrea will be a very short-lived tropical storm as environmental conditions will become very hostile by tomorrow and Thursday. This means that Andrea will likely weaken by later today and Wednesday and dissipate by later Wednesday and Thursday.

A full tropical weather discussion will be issued on Wednesday.

Invest 90-L Located About 600 Miles To The East Of Bermuda May Briefly Develop Over The Next Day Or So: An area of low pressure that has an area of disturbed weather attached to it is located over the open North Atlantic about 600 miles to the east of Bermuda. This area of disturbed weather has been designated Invest 90-L by the National Hurricane Center.

Satellite imagery as of today indicated that Invest 90-L has a small area of deeper convection with it & any little increase in its organization may cause it to briefly strengthen into a tropical depression.

Invest 90-L is of no threat at all to any land areas & is more of a curiosity than anything.

Weakening of Invest 90-L is likely as we get into Tuesday and especially Wednesday as it will encounter a more unfavorable environment for development.

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Elsewhere Across The Atlantic, Caribbean & Gulf: All is quiet across the rest of the Atlantic, Caribbean and Gulf with no other areas of interest. The environmental conditions across a large part of the Atlantic Basin are unfavorable for any sort of development.

Analysis of wind shear values reveals that very strong levels of wind shear are impacting the entire tropical Atlantic, the entire Caribbean and the western and central Gulf. The wind shear values over the eastern Gulf and the area from off of the East Coast eastward to Bermuda are less than 20 knots, which is favorable for tropical development. For now, none of the model guidance are forecasting any sort of tropical development throughout this week.

Turning to next week, it should be noted that the Canadian model is forecasting a low pressure system forming in the northeastern Gulf around next Monday and Tuesday and then tracking northeastward to near coastal South Carolina by next Thursday. While the GFS and European models do not show the same sort of scenario, they both do hint at a low pressure system forming at the tail end of a frontal boundary near the Carolina coastline later next week. Interestingly, the European ensemble model guidance does show up to a 30 percent chance for tropical development right along the South and North Carolina coasts during the second half of next week.

This all says to me that the area near the southeastern coast of the United States may be a spot to keep an eye on for possible tropical development during the middle and later parts of next week. Just something to keep an eye out for, but it’s nothing to be overly concerned or worried about.

The next tropical weather discussion will be issued on Wednesday.

All is still quiet across the Atlantic, Caribbean and Gulf & it appears that tropical development is not expected through this weekend and probably through next week.

Analysis reveals that the environmental conditions across the Atlantic Basin are unfavorable for development. In fact, the wind shear values are extremely unfavorable for any sort of development across the entire tropical Atlantic, the entire Gulf and much of the Gulf. The only area that has wind shear values that are favorable for tropical development is from off of the East Coast of the United States eastward to near Bermuda. Even with that, none of the model guidance shows any sort of tropical development threat in this area for at least the next week, if not longer.

This all means that it is looking quite likely that we will end up with no named storms in June this year.

The extremely long range model guidance seems to hint that activity might begin picking up across the tropical Atlantic between the Lesser Antilles and the west coast of Africa towards mid-July. These extremely long range models seem to point towards at least a couple of areas of disturbed weather to head westward from the eastern and central tropical Atlantic towards either the Caribbean or up towards the Bahamas during the second half of July. There’s not much else to add to this, except to say that while the rest of June and possibly early July looks quiet, activity might begin picking up towards mid and especially late July.

The next tropical weather discussion will be issued on Tuesday.

Hurricane Erick In The Eastern Pacific: The big weather story in the western Hemisphere is the quick intensification of now Hurricane Erick that’s located in the eastern Pacific about 200 miles to the south of the coast of southern Mexico.

It is expected that Erick will rapidly strengthen and make landfall on the coast of southwestern Mexico during the day on Thursday as a borderline Category 2-Category 3 hurricane. Should Erick make landfall as a 110-115 mph hurricane as landfall, it would be the strongest pre-July hurricane on record to strike Mexico.

It is somewhat uncertain as to where exactly Erick will make landfall along the coast of southwestern Mexico. The reason why is due to the angle that Erick is making landfall along the coast. At this point, it seems most likely that the eye of Erick will make landfall near San Marcos and Copala in the state of Guerrero, located to the east of Acapulco.

Damaging winds and life taking flooding is going to be a big problem across the Mexican states of Guerrero and Oaxaca the rest of today through Thursday and Friday. Rain totals of up to 20 inches are likely & this will cause flash flooding and mudslides in these areas.

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No Tropical Development Is Expected Across The Atlantic, Caribbean & Gulf Throughout The Rest Of This Week Through This Weekend: It appears that tropical development is highly unlikely across the Atlantic, Caribbean and Gulf throughout the rest of this week through this weekend. It no longer appears that the remnants of Erick will try to cross-over southern Mexico and into the Bay of Campeche, even the chances of this occurring were already extremely low.

The weather pattern for at least the next week looks unfavorable for any sort of tropical development. None of the models are really showing any sort of tropical development for at least the next week. In fact, some of the model guidance forecasts no tropical development at all for the rest of this month. This means that it’s quite possible that we could end up with no named storms in June this year.

The next tropical weather discussion will be issued on Friday.

Weather analysis today reveals that the area to watch the next few days will be an area from the far eastern Pacific northward into the Bay of Campeche.

Satellite imagery today shows that there is convection occurring across the Bay of Campeche. This convection is being caused by a surface trough of low pressure that will head towards eastern Mexico over the next couple of days.

The system to really keep an eye on is a tropical disturbance that’s located over the far eastern Pacific just south of Central America. Weather analysis seems to indicate that a low pressure system is connected with this area of disturbed weather. The actual low pressure system is located near 9.5 North Latitude, 89.9 West Longitude. The environmental conditions are favorable for additional development and it seems very likely that this disturbed weather will become yet another Eastern Pacific tropical storm over the next couple of days or so. In fact, it is quite possible that this system could become a hurricane before it comes ashore over southern Mexico later this week.

There is uncertainty as to where exactly this disturbance will make landfall later this week and this is important in terms of whether this will be a crossover tropical system or not. Most of the model guidance seems to suggest that there will be no crossover of this system and thus no tropical development will occur in the Bay of Campeche late this week. I suspect that this will actually be the case and because of this, any development in the Bay of Campeche or the southwestern Gulf late this week has a very low chance of occurring (10 percent or less).

What this eastern Pacific tropical system will do is bring heavy rain and flooding to southern and eastern Mexico starting on Thursday and continuing through Friday and the weekend. Rainfall totals of up to 4 to 8 inches can be expected across southern and eastern Mexico late this week. It is possible that some of this rain could push as far north as far South Texas and the Rio Grande Valley around Friday into this weekend. That said, there is considerable amounts of uncertainty as to whether this rain will even make it as far north as South Texas. It is something to watch either way.

Elsewhere Across The Atlantic, Caribbean & Gulf: Tropical development looks highly unlikely across the rest of the Atlantic Basin throughout this week and probably through this weekend. The overall weather pattern looks unfavorable for any sort of tropical development for at least the next 7-10 days. In fact, none of the model guidance shows any sort of tropical development during the rest of this month and it’s quite possible that we could end up with no named storms in June this year.

The next tropical weather discussion will be issued on Wednesday.

The Atlantic, Caribbean and Gulf continues to be quiet today. This is due to a combination of very strong wind shear values and a blanket of dry air at the mid-levels of the atmosphere across much of the Atlantic Basin.

Looking at satellite imagery today, it reveals a lack of any significant convection across much of the Atlantic Basin. The exception to this is across the southwestern Caribbean where there is some shower and thunderstorm activity occurring. This convection in the southwestern Caribbean is being caused by a westward moving tropical wave. Development of this convection is not expected through this weekend into early next week due to strong amounts of wind shear. This could change as we get into the middle and later parts of next week as this tropical wave moves into the Bay of Campeche.

Now, turning to next week, there continues to be the slight possibility of some sort of tropical development to occur in the Bay of Campeche or the southwestern Gulf around the middle and later parts of next week. The catalyst for this possible tropical development looks to be that tropical wave that’s now located over the southwestern Caribbean. It looks possible that the tropical wave may get pulled into Central America during the early part of next week and then directed towards the Bay of Campeche during the middle and later parts of next week. This is when some of the model guidance are hinting that tropical development could occur in either the Bay of Campeche or the southwestern Gulf.

Looking At The Model Guidance:

The 06Z GFS model run forecasts some minor tropical development to occur in the Bay of Campeche around Wednesday and Thursday of next week. The GFS model then forecasts this system to quickly move into eastern Mexico by next Friday.

The Canadian model forecasts that perhaps some very short-lived tropical development could occur in the southwestern Gulf very near Mexico’s east coast around next Thursday and next Friday. Any system would then quickly be pushed inland into eastern Mexico.

The European model now suggests most of the energy with that tropical wave will remain over southern and eastern Mexico next week with no development forecast.

The European ensemble model guidance continues to hint at tropical development in the Bay of Campeche and the southwestern Gulf with the model forecasting a 40-45 percent chance for tropical development around Thursday and Friday of next week.

Here Are My Thoughts: I do still think that the chances of tropical development in the Bay of Campeche and the southwestern Gulf during the middle and later parts of next week are low (probably about 20 percent or so). That said, it is something that will be watched, just in case we do see a tropical system develop.

Over the next several days or so, I suspect that we will see the tropical wave that’s now located over the southwestern Caribbean move to the Bay of Campeche where an area of disturbed weather may form around Wednesday of next week. This disturbed weather may then try to take advantage of the shape of the coastline of the Bay of Campeche and try to spin up into a tropical depression or very low end tropical storm before it moves into eastern Mexico around next Friday or so.

While I do think that the high pressure ridge over the southern United States should be strong enough to push this tropical system quickly westward into eastern Mexico, it is not a certainty. If this high pressure ridge ends up weaker than forecast, it could lead to the area of disturbed weather over the Bay of Campeche to move further northward into the western Gulf and develop a little more. A further north track could lead to this system coming ashore in northeastern Mexico or far South Texas next weekend. This is exactly what a few of the ensemble members of the Canadian and European models are hinting at.

Either way, any tropical disturbance in the Bay of Campeche or the southwestern Gulf during the second half of next week will likely bring heavy rain and flooding to eastern Mexico from Wednesday of next week through next weekend. It is possible that some of this heavy rain could sneak northward into South Texas late next week and next weekend depending on the exact track of the disturbed weather.

The next tropical weather discussion will be issued on Monday.

Overall, no real changes to what I wrote on Monday. The Atlantic, Caribbean and Gulf remains quiet today and it appears that any sort of tropical development will not be a concern throughout the rest of this week right through this weekend.

Analysis reveals that very strong wind shear prevails across much of the Atlantic, Caribbean and Gulf. This strong wind shear will prevent any sort of tropical development from occurring.

Turning to next week, there is the possibility of tropical development to occur in the Bay of Campeche or the southwestern Gulf around the middle part of next week. A piece of energy over the eastern Pacific this weekend and early next week may get pulled northward into the Bay of Campeche by around next Wednesday or so.

Looking At The Model Guidance:

The 06Z GFS model run forecasts that disturbed weather will affect much of Central America throughout this weekend into early next week before it pushes into the Bay of Campeche by next Wednesday. The GFS model then forecasts this disturbed weather to remain in place over the Bay of Campeche through late next week before it moves inland into eastern Mexico next weekend.

Quick note on the newest 12Z GFS model, it has trended a bit stronger with its forecast of this disturbance. It shows this disturbance forming near the eastern coast of Central America early next week and then moves northwestward reaching the Bay of Campeche by next Wednesday. The GFS model then forecasts this system to strengthen into a depression or even a tropical storm as it heads north-northwestward into the far western Gulf next Thursday & comes ashore in far northeastern Mexico next Friday.

The Canadian model forecasts that a new tropical cyclone will form in the eastern Pacific this weekend into next week. It then forecasts a piece of energy from this tropical cyclone to break off and move into the Bay of Campeche during the Wednesday to Friday time frame next week. This piece of energy then pushes into eastern Mexico by next weekend.

Interestingly, the European model forecasts an area of low pressure to actually form in the Bay of Campeche around next Wednesday and then head into eastern Mexico by late next week.

The European ensemble model guidance continues to hint at tropical development in the Bay of Campeche with the model forecasting a 30-40 percent chance for tropical development around the middle part of next week.

Here Are My Thoughts: While I think the chances of tropical development in the Bay of Campeche and the southwestern Gulf are low next week (probably around 15-20 percent chance), it is something that does need to be watched.

Given the model agreement, I do think that there is a decent chance that we will see an area of disturbed weather move into the Bay of Campeche around next Wednesday or so. It is then quite possible that this area of disturbed weather could try to take advantage of the shape of the coastline of the Bay of Campeche and try to spin up before it moves into eastern Mexico around next Friday or next Saturday.

One thing that we will need to watch is the strength of the high pressure ridge over the southern United States. Right now, model guidance are forecasting this ridge of high pressure system will be strong enough to push any areas of disturbed weather over the Bay of Campeche quickly westward into eastern Mexico with little or no development. Should the high pressure ridge end up weaker than forecast, it could lead to this area of disturbed weather to try to sneak northward a bit into the western Gulf and try to develop a little more. In fact, the newest 12Z GFS model and a couple of the European ensemble members show exactly this & forecasts this system to travel northward across the western Gulf before moving inland into northeast Mexico or far South Texas next weekend.

Either way, any tropical disturbance in the Bay of Campeche during the middle and later parts of next week will probably bring heavy rain and flooding to eastern Mexico during the second half of next week into next weekend. Some of this heavy rain may try to sneak into South Texas late next week and next weekend.

The next tropical weather discussion will be issued on Friday.