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Hurricane Beryl: It looks like Beryl may be strengthening once again as satellite imagery indicates deeper thunderstorm activity is wrapping around the center of the hurricane. In fact, it seems as if an eye may be trying to form once again. This is all occurring, in spite of around 20 knots of wind shear.

It appears very likely that Beryl come ashore on the Yucatan Peninsula just a little south of Cozumel early Friday morning as a hurricane. A track across the Yucatan Peninsula is then very likely during Friday morning with Beryl exiting the Yucatan Peninsula near about Progresso by Friday evening as a tropical storm.

This all means that hurricane force winds, heavy rain and a significant storm surge is expected across the Yucatan Peninsula tonight through a good part of the day on Friday. It is very likely that Cozumel will see hurricane force winds and Cancun probably will end up with tropical storm force winds with wind gusts of near hurricane force.

Where Is Beryl Going In The Gulf Of Mexico: Beryl is expected to push into the southwestern Gulf of Mexico late Friday night and the big question then becomes how much will it strengthen as it heads west-northwestward during Saturday and Sunday.

Beryl has been a very resilient and stubborn hurricane and I think it’s possible that it’ll take advantage of any areas of favorable environmental conditions. In fact, the intensity guidance seems to be pointing towards wind shear values decreasing to 10 knots or less from about Saturday afternoon until it makes landfall. This is something that’ll need to be watched extremely closely because if the environment does become favorable, it could lead to steady strengthening right up to landfall.

A look at the model guidance forecast in terms of track reveals that a majority of the model guidance does show a landfall very near the Mexico-Texas border late Sunday night or Monday morning. That said, it should be noted that the latest Canadian and European model guidance are the furthest south with a landfall about 100 miles south of the Texas border. The GFS model shows a little further north track with a landfall about 50 miles south of the Texas border.

As for the ensemble model guidance, much like the last couple of days, the ensemble members that forecast a weaker storm are further south into eastern Mexico while the ensemble members that show a stronger storm are further north into the lower and middle Texas coast.

This, in turn, makes for a difficult forecast because if Beryl ends up strengthening more than what the guidance shows, then a track towards the Texas coast would need to be strongly entertained and it is something that’ll need to be watched extremely closely.

My Recommendation For Those Of You On The Middle & Lower Texas Coast & In South Texas From Brownsville To Port O’Connor Is That you should keep very close tabs on the progress of Beryl in case the core of this storm heads your way. At this point, landfall would occur late Sunday night with impacts beginning during the day on Sunday and the worst of the storm occurring Sunday night and Monday morning.

My thinking is that a landfall right along the Texas-Mexico border seems most plausible late Sunday night as a hurricane putting the lower Texas coast well within the area that sees hurricane conditions.

Once inland, it still looks likely that Beryl will slow way down in forward speed leading to a prolonged heavy rainfall event across South Texas that lasts from Sunday until at least Tuesday. This is increasingly becoming a concern across South Texas and the Rio Grande Valley. While your area needs rain very badly, a nearly stalled tropical system can cause big problems in the way of excessive rainfall and flooding. Everyone across South Texas should also monitor the heavy rainfall potential with Beryl, as well.

I will reiterate and stress that everyone with interests along the middle and especially the lower Texas coast, including Corpus Christi, Padre Island and Brownsville, need to closely monitor the latest updates with Beryl, especially given the long Holiday weekend that’ll be packed with vacationers and beachgoers.

Model Track Forecast:

Satellite Imagery:

The next tropical weather discussion will be issued on Friday.

Major Hurricane Beryl: Even though westerly wind shear has been affecting Beryl throughout the day today, the weakening of the hurricane continues to be slow. This means that Beryl is still a major hurricane that will impact the island of Jamaica over the next several hours with hurricane conditions, extremely heavy rainfall and a high storm surge.

Beryl is then expected to pass just south of the Cayman Islands tonight where it is expected that there will be hurricane conditions across the Cayman Islands throughout tonight.

Beryl’s Forecast For The Yucatan Peninsula: It still looks like that Beryl will be a hurricane when it reaches the coast of the eastern Yucatan Peninsula during Thursday night into Friday.

It is looking fairly likely that the core of the hurricane will remain far enough south of Cancun and Cozumel so that both locations escape serious impacts. It appears that the core of the hurricane should pass from near Tulum and Chetumal to Campeche and Merida during Thursday night and Friday.

Now What About Beryl’s Track In The Gulf Of Mexico: It still looks like the forecast track of Beryl in the Gulf of Mexico is going to depend on how much the hurricane weakens over the next couple of days. This is something that continues to be uncertain, especially with how resilient Beryl has been today despite being affected by 20-30 knots of wind shear.

If we do see Beryl weaken substantially over the next couple of days, it would likely be a disorganized, disrupted tropical storm that ends up pushing west-northwestward across the southern Gulf of Mexico towards a landfall near or south of Tampico, Mexico on Sunday or Monday.

On the other hand, if Beryl continues to be stubborn in the face of the strong wind shear and doesn’t weaken as much, it could be pulled northwestward by an upper level trough of low pressure over the central United States. This northwestward track would lead Beryl to head for the Texas-Mexico border by Sunday night as a borderline hurricane.

At this point, I’m leaning much more towards the scenario of Beryl heading for northeast Mexico or perhaps South Texas late this weekend as an upper end tropical storm or a borderline hurricane.

Another thing to watch out for when Beryl reaches the coast is that the steering currents may break down causing the storm to slow way down in forward speed as it’s near the coast of northeast Mexico and South Texas. This could prelong the effects of the very much needed heavy rainfall across the Rio Grande and across northern Mexico.

My advice is to continue monitoring the progress of Beryl, especially if you are in eastern or northeastern Mexico or on the lower Texas coast between Brownsville and Corpus Christi.

Model Track Forecast:

Satellite Imagery:

The next tropical weather discussion will be issued on Thursday.

Major Hurricane Beryl: After peaking at an astounding 165 mph maximum winds this morning, it appears that some wind shear is beginning to impact the hurricane. This can be seen on satellite imagery with the deepest thunderstorm activity now being pushed to the east and southeast.

Analysis of environmental conditions reveals that the wind shear values seems to have increased to about 15-25 knots. I am hoping for Jamaica and the Cayman Islands sake that this increasing wind shear will cause a steady weakening of the hurricane. That said, I do think that Beryl will still be a very major hurricane when it impacts Jamaica during the day on Wednesday. I strongly urge everyone in Jamaica to prepare for a hurricane that produces upwards of 120-130 mph winds, a large storm surge and 6 to 12 inches of rain.

Beryl’s Forecast For Jamaica & The Cayman Islands: It looks very likely that Beryl will track to the west-northwest taking the eye of the hurricane very close to, if not right over the southern side of Jamaica. This means that major hurricane conditions are expected across all of Jamaica beginning very late tonight and continuing through the day on Wednesday. Up to 120 to 130 mph winds, a large storm surge and 6 to 12 inches of rain can be expected across Jamaica very late tonight through Wednesday.

As for the Cayman Islands, the track of Beryl looks to be potentially close enough so that the Cayman Islands are impacted by hurricane conditions, including winds of 80-100 mph on Wednesday night.

Beryl’s Forecast For The Yucatan Peninsula: It appears that the forecast track of Beryl has shifted a little further north across the Yucatan Peninsula as compared to what it looked like yesterday. One reason why is due to the rapid strengthening into a Category 5 hurricane causing it to gain some added latitude. Another reason has to do with the possibility of an upper level trough of low pressure to intensify over the central United States causing the high pressure ridge over the southern United States to weaken some.

Now, there is still uncertainty as to how much more latitude Beryl will gain over the next 2 to 3 days or so. If Beryl weakens quickly due to unfavorable environmental conditions on its approach to the Yucatan Peninsula, a steady west-northwest track from the area in-between Chetumal and Cozumel to near Campeche would occur.

On the other hand, should Beryl remain a strong hurricane right into the Yucatan Peninsula, it would probably begin to get tugged more northwestward leading to a track more towards the far northern Yucatan Peninsula.

At this point, I’m leaning more towards a track that takes Beryl onshore onto the eastern Yucatan Peninsula just south of Cozumel late Thursday night as a 80-90 mph hurricane and then tracking across the northern Yucatan Peninsula and exiting between Cozumel and Merida later Friday afternoon as a tropical storm.

Where Might Beryl Track In The Gulf Of Mexico & Who Might Be Affected: The forecast track of Beryl in the Gulf of Mexico is going to be reliant on the strength of the high pressure ridge and how far west it extends and also on an upper level trough of low pressure over the central United States. Also, how strong Beryl is in the Gulf of Mexico is also going to affect where it tracks. Lots of moving parts and unknowns are making for an uncertain track forecast this weekend.

The model guidance seems to have trended a bit towards an idea that the western end of the high pressure ridge may weaken and relent causing Beryl to turn more to the northwest as it approaches the coasts of eastern Mexico and South Texas.

At this point, I don’t think that we’ll see a sharp enough turn for Beryl to make it as far north as the Louisiana coast or the upper or even middle Texas coast. For that to occur, Beryl needs to strengthen significantly again in the Gulf of Mexico causing it to be pulled northward by that trough of low pressure.

Instead, my thinking is that we may see enough of a turn to the northwest that takes Beryl inland somewhere between Corpus Christi, Texas and the northeastern Mexican coast late Sunday. The environmental conditions look to be not all that favorable for robust strengthening, but instead perhaps slow strengthening as it crosses the southwestern and western Gulf of Mexico from Friday night until Sunday. The intensity guidance seems to be in good agreement in forecasting Beryl to be a tropical storm when it comes ashore. That said, a borderline hurricane impact for south Texas and northeastern Mexico is well within the realm of possibilities.

My advice is to keep close tabs on the latest info with Beryl, especially if you are on the middle or lower Texas coast or in eastern and northeastern Mexico.

A Warning For Those Of You Heading To The Beach Along The Gulf Coast During The Fourth Of July Holiday Weekend: The large swells from Beryl are expected to reach most Gulf Coast beaches as soon as Thursday and Friday and continue right through all of this weekend. This will likely lead to a significant threat for rip currents across the entire Gulf Coast from Thursday through at least Sunday.

Please use extraordinary amounts of caution if you’re going to be on the beach this weekend. Even the strongest swimmers have drowned in rip currents, so it’s strongly advised to follow warning and caution notices. Rip currents can be extremely deceiving because the skies are going to be bright and sunny, the temperatures will be hot and the waves will not be overly huge. Except, the long period swells carry an enormous amount of energy with them leading to strong rip currents and a huge drowning risk.

Model Track Forecast:

Satellite Imagery:

Major Hurricane Beryl: The eye of Beryl made landfall at about 11:10 am Eastern Time on Carriacou Island in the Grenadines, just 30 miles north of Grenada as a 150 mph Category 4 hurricane. Since then, reconnaissance aircraft have indicated that Beryl has strengthened a little more since then with the last pass showing a central barometric pressure down to about 945 millibars. If this strengthening continues, then it is not out of the question that Beryl could become a Category 5 hurricane at some point later today, tonight or Tuesday.

There is very little in the way of historic precedent for the strength that we see Beryl at this early in the hurricane season. Some statistics that are just astounding and terrifying:

The Grenadines between Grenada and St. Lucia have never been directly impacted by a Category 3 or more hurricane since official hurricane historical data began back in 1851. The closest were Ivan in 2004 which directly impacted Grenada and Allen in 1980 which directly impacted St. Lucia.

Beryl is now tied with Dennis of 2005 as being the second strongest July hurricane in the Atlantic. Should Beryl become a Category 5 hurricane, it would become the second Category 5 hurricane on record in the Atlantic prior to August 1 with the first being Emily of 2005.

These are astounding and remarkable records that Beryl is setting and is a MAJOR, MAJOR warning sign for how bad the rest of the hurricane season is likely to be.

Beryl’s Forecast Through The Caribbean: Beryl is expected to track westward to west-northwestward across the Caribbean towards Jamaica and the Cayman Islands over the next 2 to 3 days. It should be pointed out that the environmental conditions are expected to remain favorable enough for Beryl to remain a very strong hurricane right through all of Tuesday.

It does look like Beryl’s eye should pass south of Jamaica during the day on Wednesday, but the hurricane looks to still be close enough to bring heavy rain, a storm surge and hurricane force winds to the island during Wednesday. The south side of the island looks to see significantly more impacts from Beryl than the north side of the island. Those of you in Jamaica, be ready for hurricane conditions during Wednesday.

As for the Cayman Islands, at this point, it appears that Beryl should pass far enough south of the islands to not be a major hit. That said, tropical storm conditions look likely in the Cayman Islands during late Wednesday night into Thursday. Squally weather and very rough seas are also likely Wednesday night and Thursday.

By the time Beryl reaches the area around the Yucatan Peninsula and Belize, it is expected to be in a much weaker state due to the expectation of increasing wind shear impacting the storm beginning on Wednesday. As for the track, it looks fairly likely that a high pressure ridge over the southern United States should push Beryl inland into the southern Yucatan Peninsula just north of Chetumal late Thursday night or Friday morning as perhaps a 75-85 mph hurricane.

Beryl’s Future In The Gulf Of Mexico: The big question for late this week and this weekend is whether that high pressure ridge over the southern United States will steer the storm west-northwestward towards eastern Mexico or will the high pressure ridge weaken enough to cause a little more of a northwest turn towards northern Mexico or South Texas.

Before everyone gets all worried, let me stress that there may not be much left of Beryl after its encounters with strong wind shear and then the land interaction with the Yucatan Peninsula. In fact, much of the intensity guidance seems to suggest it may barely be a tropical storm when it takes its trip across the Bay of Campeche and the western Gulf of Mexico this weekend.

At this point, I still think that there is a much higher probability that the stubborn high pressure ridge should help guide Beryl west-northwestward across the Bay of Campeche and into eastern Mexico. That said, the idea of the high pressure ridge weakening somewhat this weekend leading to a more northwest track towards the lower Texas coast cannot be ignored, but I think that it is still a very low probability event, for now.

Model Track Forecast:

Satellite Imagery:

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Invest 96-L Located Over The Central Tropical Atlantic: It looks like the chances of Invest 96-L significantly developing are decreasing. The reason why is due to the outflow from Beryl is imparting shear and other unfavorable conditions onto Invest 96-L. In fact, satellite imagery today reveals that the shower and thunderstorm activity has become a lot more disorganized.

It is looking likely now that the unfavorable conditions that Beryl is imparting onto Invest 96-L will continue for the next several days leading to very slow development, if any development occurs at all. This is great news because it means that Invest 96-L will not be a tropical storm or hurricane when it reaches the Lesser Antilles on Wednesday. In fact, I suspect it’ll still be a tropical disturbance producing squally weather and gusty winds across the central and southern Lesser Antilles throughout Wednesday.

Beyond this, while it’s probably a good idea that we should keep an idea on Invest 96-L when it crosses the Caribbean later this week into the weekend, it appears that the environmental conditions should be unfavorable for development.

The next tropical weather discussion will be issued on Tuesday.

Major Hurricane Beryl: After rapidly strengthening to a 130 mph Category 4 hurricane, it seems that the strengthening has stopped for a while. A couple of quick stats –

First is that Beryl is the only Category 4 June hurricane on record.

Second is that it took 42 hours for Beryl to strengthen from a tropical depression to a major hurricane. While this quick intensification has occurred six other times in Atlantic hurricane history, the other six all occurred on or after September 1. September, not June like we are seeing with Beryl. Absolutely astounding and terrifying.

Forecast Track: Beryl is still moving to the west as a large upper level ridge of high pressure to the north of the hurricane steers it. This means that it seems pretty likely that the eye and eyewall of Beryl will pass right over or extremely close to the southern end of St. Vincent, all of the Grenadines and across Grenada during Monday morning as a powerful Category 4 hurricane. All preparations to save your life and protect your property should be done by sunset today.

Once Beryl pushes into the Caribbean later Monday and Tuesday, it will still be guided to the west and west-northwest by a strong high pressure system located to the north of the hurricane. While this will all in likelihood keep Beryl south of Puerto Rico and Hispaniola, it does mean that Jamaica may be directly impacted with hurricane conditions on Wednesday. The Cayman Islands may then be impacted by Beryl on Thursday. How close the core of the hurricane gets to the Cayman Islands remains to be seen.

I strongly urge everyone in Jamaica and the Cayman Islands to keep very close tabs on the progress of Beryl and start putting your preliminary hurricane preparations together now.

Further west, that west to west-northwest track should guide Beryl right into some part of the eastern Yucatan Peninsula on Thursday night into Friday. Where on the Yucatan Peninsula or Belize Beryl comes ashore on is going to depend on how strong that high pressure ridge is. A stronger high pressure ridge would probably guide Beryl right into the southern Yucatan Peninsula or northern Belize. On the other hand, if that high pressure ridge weakens somewhat, it would lead to Beryl to turn a little more northwest and head more towards the northern Yucatan Peninsula.

Beyond this, the forecast track of Beryl beyond the Yucatan Peninsula is going to hinge on the strength and position of that high pressure ridge. If that high pressure ridge stays stubbornly strong over the southern United States, it would guide Beryl across the Bay of Campeche and into eastern Mexico next weekend.

On the other hand, it is possible that the ridge of high pressure could weaken somewhat. If that occurs, a track towards the northwest could guide Beryl towards the Texas coast.

At this point, I think that there is a much higher probability that the stubborn high pressure ridge should help guide Beryl nearly due west or west-northwest leading to a track across the southern Yucatan Peninsula and then into eastern Mexico. That said, the idea of the high pressure ridge weakening somewhat next weekend leading to a more northwest track towards Texas cannot be ignored, but I think that it is a very low probability event, for now.

Forecast Strength: It is very likely that the core of Beryl will pass right over St. Vincent, the Grenadines and especially Grenada as an extremely powerful Category 4 hurricane during Monday morning. This is an extremely serious situation and if you are on any of these islands, you need to be prepared for extremely intense winds on the order of 120-140 mph and a high storm surge beginning after midnight tonight and lasting through Monday morning before conditions slowly improve Monday afternoon.

Once Beryl moves into the Caribbean later Monday and Tuesday, it still looks like it’ll encounter westerly wind shear on the order of 10-20 knots, which should induce some weakening of the hurricane. The big question is how much will Beryl weaken before it reaches Jamaica on Wednesday. Model guidance seems to suggest that Beryl could weaken down to about a 100-110 mph hurricane when it reaches Jamaica on Wednesday and then about a 80-100 mph hurricane when it reaches the Cayman Islands on Thursday.

For those of you on the Yucatan Peninsula and in Belize, it should be pointed out that guidance seems to be pointing towards the potential that Beryl could still be a hurricane when it reaches there Thursday night into Friday.

Model Track Forecast:

Satellite Imagery:

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Invest 96-L Located Over The Eastern Tropical Atlantic: Since most of my time right now is being eaten up by Beryl, my update on Invest 96-L will be fairly brief.

Satellite imagery this afternoon into early this evening reveals that the shower and thunderstorm activity associated with Invest 96-L is still disorganized, but it does seem to be gradually becoming better organized. It does appear that the environmental conditions will be favorable enough for this system to become a tropical storm by the time it reaches the southern Lesser Antilles late in the day on Wednesday.

This means that those of you in Barbados, St. Lucia, St. Vincent and Grenadines need to be aware that a second tropical storm is probably going to impact you just 2 days after Beryl hits you.

Model Track Forecast:

Satellite Imagery:

The next tropical weather discussion will be issued on Monday.

Tropical Storm Beryl: Tropical Storm Beryl is strengthening at a fairly quick pace today based on satellite imagery and other data. Satellite imagery reveals that the shower and thunderstorm activity with Beryl is organized in curved bands and outflow is noted with the storm.

Beryl is expected to be a significant hurricane when it affects the southern Lesser Antilles during the day on Monday. Beyond this, the track and strength of Beryl is somewhat unknown once it tracks across the Caribbean during next week. It is possible that Jamaica, the Cayman Islands and parts of the Yucatan Peninsula is affected by Beryl during the second half of next week.

Forecast Strength: As I already mentioned, Beryl is strengthening at a fairly quick rate and it seems likely that the storm will undergo rapid strengthening as we get into tonight and Sunday. The environmental conditions around Beryl are quite favorable for strengthening with low wind shear noted.

The intensity guidance forecasts that there is approximately a 68 percent chance that Beryl will be a 90-95 mph hurricane by this time tomorrow and a 59 percent chance that Beryl will be a 125 mph hurricane by Monday morning.

At this point, I think it’s quite plausible that Beryl will be a 110-120 mph hurricane when it crosses across the southern Lesser Antilles on Monday. Those of you in the southern Lesser Antilles and especially the islands of Barbados and St. Vincent and the Grenadines, expect full-blown hurricane conditions on Monday with wind gusts of over 100 mph possible.

Beyond this, when Beryl tracks across the Caribbean next week, the uncertainty as to whether the hurricane weakens dramatically or not is quite high. There is still the expectation of moderate to strong wind shear and if this occurs, then we’d see a steadily weakening storm cross the Caribbean next week. On the other hand, if the wind shear ends up being weaker than what is forecast right now, it’s possible that Beryl could stay a hurricane across the entire journey through the Caribbean potentially impacting Jamaica, the Cayman Islands and parts of Belize and possibly parts of the Yucatan Peninsula.

At this point, I wouldn’t put too much stock in the idea that Beryl will definitely weaken and those of you in Jamaica and the Cayman Islands, as well as the Yucatan Peninsula and Belize should closely monitor the progress of Beryl, just in case it doesn’t weaken.

Forecast Track: Beryl is currently tracking nearly due west as a big high pressure ridge steers the storm.

This track is likely to take Beryl right across the southern Lesser Antilles during the day on Monday with the eye of the expected hurricane tracking just south of Barbados and then right across St. Vincent and the Grenadines.

The track of Beryl in the Caribbean is going to hinge heavily on how strong it is. A stronger storm would be tugged northward by a trough of low pressure near Bermuda leading to a track across central and northern Caribbean and possibly even into the Gulf of Mexico. On the other hand, if Beryl is impacted by quite a bit of wind shear and weakens appreciably in the Caribbean, it would track west or west-northwest across the southern Caribbean.

Both scenarios are very much on the table and because of this, the forecast track of Beryl in the Caribbean has a low amount of confidence.

Expected Impacts: For the southern Lesser Antilles, expect hurricane force winds with wind gusts of well over 100 mph on Monday on Barbados and St. Vincent and the Grenadines. Beryl is a small storm in overall size, so the tropical storm force winds should extend northward to St. Lucia and Martinique and extend southward across Grenada.

Heavy rain is also expected with Beryl with amounts of 6 to 8 inches across Barbados, St. Vincent and St. Lucia. Rough seas are also expected with Beryl late Sunday through Monday across much of the southern Lesser Antilles.

Model Track Forecast:

Satellite Imagery:

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A Strong Tropical Disturbance Over The Eastern Tropical Atlantic Also Is Being Watched For Potential Development: Following right behind Beryl is a strong area of disturbed weather located over the eastern Tropical Atlantic. It continues to look quite possible that this particular tropical disturbance might also develop as it heads westward across the eastern and central Tropical Atlantic.

A look at the environmental conditions around this system reveals that the wind shear values continue to be quite favorable for development.

The model guidance continue to be in quite a bit of disagreement with what might occur with this particular disturbance.

The GFS model guidance is still quite robust and forecasts a follow-up hurricane hit on the on the central and southern Lesser Antilles on Wednesday of next week.

The Canadian model shows a track that takes this system over the central Lesser Antilles as a tropical storm around Wednesday of next week.

The European model is much weaker and seems to point towards it barely being a depression as it crosses the southern Lesser Antilles on Wednesday of next week.

My advice is let’s deal with Beryl and its impacts over the next 2-3 days and then we’ll take a really close look at this other disturbance. That said, this next tropical disturbance is only 2 days behind Beryl and if you are in the central and southern Lesser Antilles, I would keep close tabs on this disturbance too.

The next tropical weather discussion will be issued on Sunday.

Invest 95-L Located Over The Central Tropical Atlantic: Invest 95-L continues to organize at a steady pace as of this afternoon. Satellite imagery indicates that there is banding noted with this system and there is a noted increase in deep thunderstorm activity.

Based on everything that I’ve looked at, I do think that Invest 95-L is very probably a tropical depression now and I do expect an upgrade from the National Hurricane Center at either 5 pm or 11 pm today. Additionally, I think we’ll probably see Invest 95-L strengthen into a tropical storm probably as soon as tomorrow. The next name on the list is Beryl.

The environmental conditions around Invest 95-L are quite favorable, especially for this time of year and it seems quite plausible that we’ll see this system strengthen into not only a tropical storm, but potentially a hurricane by the time it reaches the central and southern Lesser Antilles on Monday.

I strongly urge everyone across the central and southern Lesser Antilles, including Barbados, St. Lucia, St. Vincent and the Grenadines to prepare for not only tropical storm conditions but for hurricane conditions during the day on Monday.

It should be noted that the model intensity guidance is forecasting the odds of rapid intensification at between 30 and 40 percent over the next 2-3 days or so. This supports the idea that Invest 95-L is in an environment that is favorable for not only strengthening, but rapid strengthening between now and when it reaches the central and southern Lesser Antilles on Monday.

Looking further ahead, it looks likely that this system will track westward and west-northwestward across the Caribbean next week. The question then becomes whether it will remain a tropical storm or hurricane or weaken as it tracks across the Caribbean. The model guidance seems to be pointing towards a less favorable environment for strengthening due to stronger wind shear values. If this happens, then weakening would occur as it heads across the Caribbean next week.

As for a track next week, the model guidance are in good agreement on a westward or west-northwestward track for much of next week. There are differences, however, in the guidance with the GFS ensemble guidance showing a further north track towards the Yucatan Channel and the European ensemble model guidance showing a further south track towards northern Honduras, Belize and the Yucatan Peninsula by later next week. That said, if there is strong westerly wind shear impacting Invest 95-L for much of next week, it’s possible that it may be a weak system by the time it reaches the western or northwestern Caribbean.

Model Track Forecast:

Satellite Imagery:

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Another Tropical Disturbance Over The Far Eastern Tropical Atlantic Also Is Being Watched For Potential Development: If that wasn’t enough, I’m also keeping an eye on a tropical disturbance over the far eastern Tropical Atlantic to see if it might develop as it heads westward over the next several days.

A look at the environmental conditions around this system reveals that the wind shear values are certainly favorable for development and it seems enveloped in a very moist atmospheric conditions.

The model guidance are in a lot more disagreement with what might occur with this other disturbance.

The GFS and the GFS ensemble model guidance seem to suggest a follow-up hit on the central and southern Lesser Antilles during the middle part of next week as perhaps a tropical storm.

The Canadian model shows a track that takes this system over the southern Lesser Antilles as a tropical storm around Wednesday of next week.

The European model is much weaker and seems to point towards it barely being a depression as it crosses the southern Lesser Antilles on Wednesday of next week.

My advice is let’s get past Invest 95-L first before we really take a close look at this next system. That said, this next tropical disturbance is only 2 days behind Invest 95-L and if you are in the central and southern Lesser Antilles, I would keep close tabs on this disturbance too.

The next full tropical weather discussion will be issued on Saturday. When Invest 95-L is upgraded to a Tropical Depression, I will send out a short update letting you all know of this.

Invest 95-L Located Over The Eastern Tropical Atlantic: Invest 95-L, which is a strong tropical disturbance, is currently located over the eastern Tropical Atlantic very near 35 West Longitude. Satellite imagery as of this afternoon indicates that Invest 95-L is organizing at a fairly respectable pace as it’s beginning to get that curved shrimp shape we often see with tropical depressions. Invest 95-L is well on its way to likely becoming Tropical Storm Beryl within the next couple of days or so.

What we’re seeing with Invest 95-L right now in the tropical Eastern Atlantic is what you would usually see in August, not late June!!

A look at the environmental conditions around Invest 95-L reveals that the disturbance is embedded within a rather favorable environment with plenty of moisture and wind shear values of 10-20 knots. That said, there is a considerable amount of dry air positioned just north of Invest 95-L, but it seems that there is no dry air intrusion noted.

The various intensity models are quite aggressive in forecasting robust strengthening of Invest 95-L with a majority of the models forecasting this system to be a hurricane by the time it reaches the central and southern Lesser Antilles early next week. Again, this is highly anomalous for a late June tropical system.

As for the potential forecast track of Invest 95-L – It looks as if a ridge of high pressure to the north of Invest 95-L should steer this system west to west-northwest towards the Lesser Antilles. It should be noted that the ensemble guidance seem to be in two different track camps with Invest 95-L.

The ensemble members that are forecasting slower development and strengthening seem to be showing a nearly due west track right through the central and southern Caribbean next week.

The ensemble members that a forecasting a much stronger storm are forecasting a more northward track towards the northern Caribbean and towards the Bahamas, Florida and the Gulf of Mexico.

This means that the next few days will be extremely important in determining the final outcome of Invest 95-L. If this system strengthens rapidly, then it could end up taking a more northward track towards the northern Caribbean. On the other hand, if Invest 95-L takes its time to develop, then a track into the central and southern Caribbean and towards Central America would be very much on the table.

For now, my attention, in terms of relative immediate impact, is on the central and southern Lesser Antilles and I urge everyone in the central and southern Lesser Antilles to pay very close attention to the progress of Invest 95-L. At least tropical storm conditions may be quite possible on Monday across much of the central and southern Lesser Antilles and this includes the island of Barbados.

Beyond this, I recommend that those of you in the Caribbean and especially Jamaica, the Cayman Islands, the Yucatan Peninsula, Belize, Honduras and Nicaragua should closely monitor the progress of Invest 95-L.

My thinking, as of right now, is for Invest 95-L to track across the central Caribbean next week before coming ashore in northeastern Nicaragua or northern Honduras around next Thursday as a hurricane. That said, this is still an early call and lots can change over the next week or so.

Model Track Forecast:

Satellite Imagery:

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Invest 94-L Located Over The Western Caribbean: Invest 94-L, which is now located over the western Caribbean is a disorganized mess and is no where near becoming a tropical system right now.

It is expected that Invest 94-L will move across Central America and the southern Yucatan Peninsula over the next couple of days before it briefly moves into the southern Bay of Campeche this weekend. It is possible that Invest 94-L could try to spin up into a tropical depression this weekend in the southern Bay of Campeche before it moves into eastern Mexico late this weekend and early next week.

The next tropical weather discussion will be issued on Friday.

Tropical Development Possible In The Central Tropical Atlantic Just East Of The Lesser Antilles By This Weekend: A tropical wave, which looks like it is increasing in organization and spin, is located over the eastern tropical Atlantic to the southwest of the Cape Verde Islands. I do think that this system does have a decent shot at becoming a tropical depression and then a tropical storm before it reaches the Lesser Antilles early next week. Because of this, I urge everyone across the Lesser Antilles and in particular Barbados and the Windward Islands to keep close tabs on this particular tropical wave.

Let’s take a look at the latest model guidance and see what they show:

The GFS model forecasts this tropical wave to become a tropical storm before it reaches Barbados and the Windward Islands, which is forecast to be on Monday. From there, the GFS model forecasts this system to weaken significantly as it moves westward across the southern Caribbean around the middle part of next week. If that wasn’t enough, the GFS model also forecasts another tropical wave that will be pushing off of the coast of Africa over the next couple of days will also develop into a tropical storm by the time it reaches the Windward Islands around next Wednesday.

The Canadian model also forecasts the tropical wave now located over the eastern Tropical Atlantic. It forecasts it to be a tropical storm by the time it reaches Barbados and the Windward Islands on Monday. From there, the Canadian model forecasts this system to weaken as it heads westward across the Caribbean during the middle part of next week. Additionally, the Canadian model forecasts no second tropical system in the tropical Atlantic like the GFS model does.

The European model does show some development of the eastern Tropical Atlantic wave over the next few days and seems to suggest it may be a depression by the time it reaches the Windward Islands on Monday.

A look at the ensemble guidance reveals that they seem to be forecasting up to a 30-40 percent chance for tropical development in the area between 30 and 50 West Longitude between Friday and Sunday.

Here Are My Thoughts: As I mentioned near the start of this discussion, I do think that this tropical wave has a decent shot at becoming a tropical depression and very probably a tropical storm by this weekend as it heads westward across the central Tropical Atlantic.

One reason why I think this is because this tropical wave will be located at a fairly low latitude (around 10-12 North Latitude) where analysis reveals that wind shear values are favorable for development. This track at a low latitude will also allow this wave to avoid being impacted by dry air that exists up around 15 North Latitude or so.

Based on everything that I’ve looked at, I think that this tropical wave has about a 50 percent chance of becoming a tropical depression and then a tropical storm sometime during this weekend as it heads westward towards the Windward Islands.

This means that those of you on the island of Barbados, the islands of Trinidad and Tobago and the Windward Islands should closely monitor the situation with this wave as it could be a tropical storm by the time it reaches you on Monday.

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Invest 94-L Located Over The Central Caribbean: I’m also watching a tropical wave that’s located over the central Caribbean, which is designated Invest 94-L.

Satellite imagery indicates that there is disorganized shower and thunderstorm activity associated with Invest 94-L and analysis of environmental conditions reveals that it is being impacted by 40 knots of wind shear. Invest 94-L is also moving quickly to the west which will likely limit the amount of development it can do.

That said, it’s possible that it could briefly develop before it moves into the Yucatan Peninsula this weekend. Overall though, I’m not expecting a whole lot from Invest 94-L.

The next tropical weather discussion will be issued on Thursday.

Overall it appears things will calm down a bit this week across the Atlantic, Caribbean and Gulf of Mexico with no immediate tropical development expected.

That said, there are a few things that I wanted to point out:

The First Is an area of showers and thunderstorms located over the eastern Bahamas. Even though the convection looks halfway impressive, development is not expected due to strong wind shear values. It is anticipated that this disturbance will head northeastward towards Bermuda over the next few days.

The Second Area that I wanted to mention is a tropical wave that’s now approaching the Windward Islands. This tropical wave is expected to move from east to west across the Caribbean by the middle part of this week reaching the western Caribbean towards the end of this week.

There is the possibility that this tropical wave could try to develop a bit in the western Caribbean before it reaches the Yucatan Peninsula late this week. Model guidance such as the GFS ensemble model guidance and the European ensemble guidance seems to hint that some development could occur around Friday or Saturday over the far western Caribbean.

Even if this particular wave develops over the far western Caribbean, an upper level high pressure ridge over the southern United States will steer it westward into Mexico.

The Third Area that I’m watching is a tropical wave that’s located over the far eastern Tropical Atlantic just off of the coast of west Africa. This wave is interesting to me because it appears possible that the environmental conditions could be favorable for development once it reaches the area near the Lesser Antilles in a little more than a week from now. Because of this, I do think this tropical wave needs to be watched closely for possible development by early next week.

Looking at the model guidance reveals that the European model and its ensemble counterparts are much more interested in the idea of tropical development very near the Lesser Antilles early next week than the GFS model. In fact, the European ensemble model guidance is forecasting up to a 30 percent chance for tropical development early next week in the tropical Atlantic in the area around 50 West Longitude.

With only lukewarm support from the model guidance and the fact that there is quite a bit of dry air out in the central and eastern Tropical Atlantic, I think the chances for robust tropical development near the Lesser Antilles early next week are low. That said, it is something that I’m going to be watching closely.

The next tropical weather discussion will be issued on Wednesday.