The rest of this week through this weekend is expected to be quiet across the Atlantic, Caribbean and the Gulf with no tropical development expected.

As we get into next week, there is a very low chance that we could see a tropical system try to develop near the US Southeast coast & then be pushed westward into the eastern Gulf. That said, more than likely nothing at all will develop & all will stay quiet.

Some of the model guidance such as the GFS model and Google’s Deep Mind model is showing a piece of mid-level energy to push off of the southeast coast of the United States by early next week. This energy then gets left behind as a frontal system decays towards the middle part of next week. Once this occurs, it is anticipated that an upper level high pressure system over the eastern United States will help to push this piece of energy westward across the Florida Peninsula and into the eastern Gulf during the second half of next week within an environment that’s somewhat favorable for development.

It should be noted that the model guidance only show a slight chance of tropical development occurring with the European ensemble guidance only forecasting a 10-20 percent chance for tropical development.

For now, I think that the chances for tropical development near the US Southeast Coast and in the eastern Gulf are very low (probably near 10 percent). That being said, it will be something that I’ll be keeping an eye on, just in case.

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