Hurricane Isaias continues to strengthen and the latest reconnaissance aircraft reports reveal that the hurricane now has 100 mph maximum winds. Satellite imagery this evening shows that the hurricane continues to maintain a strong and symmetric core with an eye beginning to form on both infrared and visible imagery.
Overall, my thoughts from earlier are about the same – I do still think that we will see Isaias continue to strengthen throughout tonight and Friday morning & it’s highly likely that it’ll peak at about a 110 mph hurricane by Friday morning. That being said, I do have concerns that we could see a period of rapid strengthening tonight and Friday morning and if this happens, then we could see the hurricane peak in the 115-125 mph range instead.
By Friday afternoon and Friday night, increasing amounts of wind shear and dry air located to the west and northwest will more than likely lead to the weakening of the hurricane. Because of this, I do think that Isaias will make landfall very near Pensacola, Florida as a 90-100 mph hurricane around midnight on Friday night.
Now, one thing that I’m going to be watching closely as we move through tonight and Friday is the possibility that the southwesterly upper-level winds around Isaias may line up with the hurricane’s forward motion. If this happens, then we could see a situation where the net wind shear over the hurricane is extremely low leading to either more strengthening than what I’m forecasting right now or a situation where Isaias doesn’t weaken before landfall. Again, this is something that I’ll be watching extremely closely and will most definitely keep you updated.
To Sum Up My Thoughts – I expect to see Isaias strengthen some more tonight and Friday morning and peak at a 110 mph hurricane on Friday morning. Some weakening of the hurricane is then expected during Friday afternoon into Friday night before it makes landfall. This means that I expect that Isaias should make landfall somewhere very near Pensacola around midnight on Friday night as a 90-100 mph hurricane.
Forecast Impacts: I strongly urge everyone across southern Alabama and across the entire Florida Panhandle to continue preparing for a hurricane landfall. All preparations need to be done by Friday morning. Also, keep checking back often for the latest updates.
Winds: Hurricane force winds are expected to occur across southern Alabama and across the western Florida Panhandle throughout Friday night. Tropical storm force winds look like they will affect areas of the Florida Panhandle as far east as Apalachicola and possibly the Big Bend area of northwest Florida during Friday night.
It should be noted that some very gusty winds are expected to extend well inland into central Alabama, eastern Mississippi and western and northern Georgia during the day on Saturday. This is due to the fact that Isaias is going to be a fast moving hurricane that’ll have little time to weaken. Downed trees and widespread power outages are likely across a large area of eastern Mississippi, central and southern Alabama, the Florida Panhandle and northern and western Georgia during this weekend.
Storm Surge: A storm surge of up to at least 6-8 feet continues to be expected across areas near and east of where the hurricane makes landfall. This means that storm surge related flooding looks likely across southern Alabama and across the entire Florida Panhandle during Friday, Friday night and Saturday morning. The worst of the storm surge flooding looks to occur from about Mobile Bay eastward to the western Florida Panhandle, including Pensacola Beach and Panama City Beach.
Tornadoes: I still think that tornadoes could be a big time threat when Isaias makes landfall on Friday night. There is going to be very strong amounts of low-level wind shear occurring on the eastern side of the hurricane. Because of this, tornadoes, some of them EF-2 to EF-3 in strength, will be a definite threat on Friday night into Saturday morning across southern Alabama and across the Florida Panhandle. This is particularly worrisome as nighttime tornadoes are especially dangerous so those of you across southern Alabama and across the Florida Panhandle need to have a way to receive Tornado Warnings.
I continue to monitor Hurricane Isaias extremely closely & this means that I will continue to have updates for you as needed.