It appears that there may be some sort of tropical development that might occur later this week over the North Atlantic to the east of Bermuda. Satellite imagery today revealed that there is a low pressure system that is producing disorganized convection located about 1000 miles to the east of Bermuda near about 29 North Latitude, 52 West Longitude. A look at the environmental conditions around this low pressure system shows that conditions are unfavorable for development due to strong northwesterly wind shear.
It is anticipated that this low pressure system will head towards the west-northwest over the central North Atlantic & may travel into a more favorable environment for development as we head towards the later parts of this week. Should this occur, then we may see this system try to develop into a tropical system later this week.
That being said, it’s probably going to take some time for this system to acquire tropical characteristics. For one, the environmental conditions will not become favorable for development until late this week and this weekend. Second, when the environmental conditions do become favorable, it’ll take at least a couple of days for the low pressure system to transition from a non-tropical system into a tropical system.
Model guidance such as the Google Deep Mind model and the European AIFS model both show development from this low pressure system. Meanwhile the regular models, such as the GFS model and the European model show no development at all from this system. Given how good the Google Deep Mind and the European AIFS model have been in picking out tropical development, I’m leaning more towards the idea that we may see a tropical system form to the east of Bermuda sometime between Thursday and Saturday.
Even if we do see tropical development over the central North Atlantic, it will pose no threat to the United States or the Caribbean. We might have to watch this system’s proximity to Bermuda as it could pose some threat to the island early next week.
Elsewhere Across The Atlantic, Caribbean & Gulf: The rest of the Atlantic Basin is quiet today with no other areas of interest. It appears that tropical development is not expected across the remaining parts of the Atlantic Basin throughout this week through the weekend.
Beyond this, there is the possibility that there could be some tropical mischief near either the Bahamas or in the Gulf by about the second half of next week (after September 23). This possible tropical mischief could occur due to a piece of energy near the tail end of a front being left behind & then getting trapped underneath a high pressure ridge. Model guidance such as the Google Deep Mind model and the European AIFS model do show this potential, but only show the chances of it occurring at about 10 percent or so. For now, this is just something to keep an eye on, just in case.