Invest 90-L Located About 600 Miles To The East Of Bermuda May Briefly Develop Over The Next Day Or So: An area of low pressure that has an area of disturbed weather attached to it is located over the open North Atlantic about 600 miles to the east of Bermuda. This area of disturbed weather has been designated Invest 90-L by the National Hurricane Center.
Satellite imagery as of today indicated that Invest 90-L has a small area of deeper convection with it & any little increase in its organization may cause it to briefly strengthen into a tropical depression.
Invest 90-L is of no threat at all to any land areas & is more of a curiosity than anything.
Weakening of Invest 90-L is likely as we get into Tuesday and especially Wednesday as it will encounter a more unfavorable environment for development.
Elsewhere Across The Atlantic, Caribbean & Gulf: All is quiet across the rest of the Atlantic, Caribbean and Gulf with no other areas of interest. The environmental conditions across a large part of the Atlantic Basin are unfavorable for any sort of development.
Analysis of wind shear values reveals that very strong levels of wind shear are impacting the entire tropical Atlantic, the entire Caribbean and the western and central Gulf. The wind shear values over the eastern Gulf and the area from off of the East Coast eastward to Bermuda are less than 20 knots, which is favorable for tropical development. For now, none of the model guidance are forecasting any sort of tropical development throughout this week.
Turning to next week, it should be noted that the Canadian model is forecasting a low pressure system forming in the northeastern Gulf around next Monday and Tuesday and then tracking northeastward to near coastal South Carolina by next Thursday. While the GFS and European models do not show the same sort of scenario, they both do hint at a low pressure system forming at the tail end of a frontal boundary near the Carolina coastline later next week. Interestingly, the European ensemble model guidance does show up to a 30 percent chance for tropical development right along the South and North Carolina coasts during the second half of next week.
This all says to me that the area near the southeastern coast of the United States may be a spot to keep an eye on for possible tropical development during the middle and later parts of next week. Just something to keep an eye out for, but it’s nothing to be overly concerned or worried about.
The next tropical weather discussion will be issued on Wednesday.